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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:10 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
P in VG wrote:
I reckon it will ultimately come down to a binary choice: Revoke or No-deal exit. There is no compromise to be had - both sides of the argument are unwilling to concede & unsatisfied with any potential middle ground (May's deal for example). The numbers aren't there for any one 'type' of Brexit (Norway / CU / Canada + etc) to get past parliament - so It will boil down to No-deal vs Revoke.

How this all plays out in Parliament will be interesting over the coming months. I know BoJo et al are stubbornly saying we'll leave on Oct 31st as default - but the Tories have a working majority of what? 2 MPs? (including the DUP) - that's not enough to force through No-deal IMO - they would leave themselves open to a vote of no confidence (would only take a couple of rebel Tory MPs or DUP to make it happen)



This is probable it seems with Parliaments maths. (Gospel has banged that drum for year or so), the Tories can only be saved by no deal and leave, Labour in its current format finished 18 months into power unless they pick a side.

Parliament will not be forgiven in the medium term and it’s very dangerous.

Even if he is blocked by Parliament I do wonder if Boris has considered using the momentum from a potentially successful leadership contest to spring board into an early GE to break the deadlock. Force the issue instead of running from it. Given he offer's leavers the best chance of actually leaving the EU the Brexit Party would then have to choose between a pact with the Conservatives or face a Labor / SNP / LD coalition which will kill Brexit stone dead.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:10 pm 
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Nobleman wrote:
Great article by former Conservative minister turned journalist Matthew Parris, about how Johnson will be found out because he is incompetent and untrustworthy:

Quote:
Johnson premiership will fall apart in a year
Matthew Parris

Colleagues know the party favourite is a lazy, untrustworthy do-nothing but seem determined to vote for him anyway


If you ask me, the reason for this is simple. There is no Brexit. At some point the merry-go-round has to end. Boris is largely to blame for this mess and everyone else is happy for him to put his head in the noose. Who would want to manage the next 3 months to B-Day, and then the following 12 months if it's a HB? Only a person who's ego outweighs his brains. Enter Boris.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:10 pm 
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Best argument ever been made on Sky news by a German journo about the idea of holding back the 39 billion, she explained that was a net figure of all sorts of things owed in both directions and that if we didn’t pay then the EU would hold back their side of the deal.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:13 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
bimboman wrote:
P in VG wrote:
I reckon it will ultimately come down to a binary choice: Revoke or No-deal exit. There is no compromise to be had - both sides of the argument are unwilling to concede & unsatisfied with any potential middle ground (May's deal for example). The numbers aren't there for any one 'type' of Brexit (Norway / CU / Canada + etc) to get past parliament - so It will boil down to No-deal vs Revoke.

How this all plays out in Parliament will be interesting over the coming months. I know BoJo et al are stubbornly saying we'll leave on Oct 31st as default - but the Tories have a working majority of what? 2 MPs? (including the DUP) - that's not enough to force through No-deal IMO - they would leave themselves open to a vote of no confidence (would only take a couple of rebel Tory MPs or DUP to make it happen)



This is probable it seems with Parliaments maths. (Gospel has banged that drum for year or so), the Tories can only be saved by no deal and leave, Labour in its current format finished 18 months into power unless they pick a side.

Parliament will not be forgiven in the medium term and it’s very dangerous.

Even if he is blocked by Parliament I do wonder if Boris has considered using the momentum from a potentially successful leadership contest to spring board into an early GE to break the deadlock. Force the issue instead of running from it. Given he offer's leavers the best chance of actually leaving the EU the Brexit Party would then have to choose between a pact with the Conservatives or face a Labor / SNP / LD coalition which will kill Brexit stone dead.



I think that’s very possible. He’d have to do a deal with Farage though I reckon. Be interesting who else gets deselected between now and that GE considering the manifesto...


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:14 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
bimboman wrote:
P in VG wrote:
I reckon it will ultimately come down to a binary choice: Revoke or No-deal exit. There is no compromise to be had - both sides of the argument are unwilling to concede & unsatisfied with any potential middle ground (May's deal for example). The numbers aren't there for any one 'type' of Brexit (Norway / CU / Canada + etc) to get past parliament - so It will boil down to No-deal vs Revoke.

How this all plays out in Parliament will be interesting over the coming months. I know BoJo et al are stubbornly saying we'll leave on Oct 31st as default - but the Tories have a working majority of what? 2 MPs? (including the DUP) - that's not enough to force through No-deal IMO - they would leave themselves open to a vote of no confidence (would only take a couple of rebel Tory MPs or DUP to make it happen)



This is probable it seems with Parliaments maths. (Gospel has banged that drum for year or so), the Tories can only be saved by no deal and leave, Labour in its current format finished 18 months into power unless they pick a side.

Parliament will not be forgiven in the medium term and it’s very dangerous.

Even if he is blocked by Parliament I do wonder if Boris has considered using the momentum from a potentially successful leadership contest to spring board into an early GE to break the deadlock. Force the issue instead of running from it. Given he offer's leavers the best chance of actually leaving the EU the Brexit Party would then have to choose between a pact with the Conservatives or face a Labor / SNP / LD coalition which will kill Brexit stone dead.


I'm trying to think of a recent PM who went down this route.....I don't think it worked out well.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:14 pm 
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BokJock wrote:
Eddie Mair is excellent

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAxA-9D4X3o

Your next PM :?

Quote:
why don't we talk about something else


:lol: :lol: :lol:


Just listening to that now, its absolute car crash TV.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:15 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Best argument ever been made on Sky news by a German journo about the idea of holding back the 39 billion, she explained that was a net figure of all sorts of things owed in both directions and that if we didn’t pay then the EU would hold back their side of the deal.

Did she offer up any examples of things owed by the EU? The £39B is for various pension liabilities and remaining contributions for the current fiscal cycle with ends in 2020.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:19 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Best argument ever been made on Sky news by a German journo about the idea of holding back the 39 billion, she explained that was a net figure of all sorts of things owed in both directions and that if we didn’t pay then the EU would hold back their side of the deal.

Did she offer up any examples of things owed by the EU? The £39B is for various pension liabilities and remaining contributions for the current fiscal cycle with ends in 2020.



She explained its lots of things in both directions, obviously ignoring the fact that it’s net in one direction. It really was about the stupidest argument ever made.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:20 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Best argument ever been made on Sky news by a German journo about the idea of holding back the 39 billion, she explained that was a net figure of all sorts of things owed in both directions and that if we didn’t pay then the EU would hold back their side of the deal.

Did she offer up any examples of things owed by the EU? The £39B is for various pension liabilities and remaining contributions for the current fiscal cycle with ends in 2020.


Yes she did and she failed. Johnson is offering nothing new, nothing that has not been tried by May. It's like the last three years never happened for you Brexiters.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:22 pm 
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Nobleman wrote:
I'm trying to think of a recent PM who went down this route.....I don't think it worked out well.

Yeah it's very similar but with a rather important difference - May had a healthy majority remember but she was just about the worst campaigner in the history of the world with a manifesto built around targeting her own base. Compare with Boris who has won two mayoral elections in a Labor city plus the assumed to be unwinnable Referendum. The longer he is left bleeding and inert by Parliamentary arithmetic the weaker he will look. I wouldn't be surprised to see him grasp the nettle sooner rather than later.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:23 pm 
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Well - the UK owns parts of some joint EU investment vehicles ... EIB for one I think?

They should get some of that back.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:24 pm 
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Nobleman wrote:
Gospel wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Best argument ever been made on Sky news by a German journo about the idea of holding back the 39 billion, she explained that was a net figure of all sorts of things owed in both directions and that if we didn’t pay then the EU would hold back their side of the deal.

Did she offer up any examples of things owed by the EU? The £39B is for various pension liabilities and remaining contributions for the current fiscal cycle with ends in 2020.


Yes she did and she failed. Johnson is offering nothing new, nothing that has not been tried by May. It's like the last three years never happened for you Brexiters.

The German journo failed? Eh? :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:25 pm 
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ukjim wrote:
I cannot imagine a less suitable PM than fat Joffery to lead the country through no deal chaos.

if the UK is still constituent in 10 years we will have done well I think.

Ten??

You are giving yourself far too much leeway, methinks.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:27 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
Nobleman wrote:
I'm trying to think of a recent PM who went down this route.....I don't think it worked out well.

Yeah it's very similar but with a rather important difference - May had a healthy majority remember but she was just about the worst campaigner in the history of the world with a manifesto built around targeting her own base. Compare with Boris who has won two mayoral elections in a Labor city plus the assumed to be unwinnable Referendum. The longer he is left bleeding and inert by Parliamentary arithmetic the weaker he will look. I wouldn't be surprised to see him grasp the nettle sooner rather than later.


Also consider that the Brexit party continue to climb in the polls as the Tories continue to sink. If he calls a GE early he might be able to win back some of those voters.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:28 pm 
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Nobleman wrote:
Gospel wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Best argument ever been made on Sky news by a German journo about the idea of holding back the 39 billion, she explained that was a net figure of all sorts of things owed in both directions and that if we didn’t pay then the EU would hold back their side of the deal.

Did she offer up any examples of things owed by the EU? The £39B is for various pension liabilities and remaining contributions for the current fiscal cycle with ends in 2020.


Yes she did and she failed. Johnson is offering nothing new, nothing that has not been tried by May. It's like the last three years never happened for you Brexiters.


It is dull. Listening to Johnson's launch speech why do brexiteers mention various manufactured high tech products and sectors who really really do not like Brexit. Is it just to fool gormless clueless brexiters that these sectors won't be screwed by it? Perhaps gospel and bimbo can help tell me how cancelling product upgrades and projects to pay for stockpiling and other Brexit costs will help UK companies compete?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:28 pm 
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nardol wrote:
Well - the UK owns parts of some joint EU investment vehicles ... EIB for one I think?

They should get some of that back.


We can give them a share of the profits from it :D


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:30 pm 
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ukjim wrote:
I cannot imagine a less suitable PM than fat Joffery to lead the country through no deal chaos.

if the UK is still constituent in 10 years we will have done well I think.

He might be the right person at the right time. Big ideas [think of all those bridges], bags of enthusiasm and optimism. It'd be wrong to discount that. Provided he's got a decent team around him like he had when he was Mayor it's not the worst thing that can happen. I think we could do far-far worse, Corbyn for example.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:32 pm 
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nardol wrote:
Well - the UK owns parts of some joint EU investment vehicles ... EIB for one I think?

They should get some of that back.



I knew someone would get it.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:36 pm 
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sturginho wrote:
Gospel wrote:
Nobleman wrote:
I'm trying to think of a recent PM who went down this route.....I don't think it worked out well.

Yeah it's very similar but with a rather important difference - May had a healthy majority remember but she was just about the worst campaigner in the history of the world with a manifesto built around targeting her own base. Compare with Boris who has won two mayoral elections in a Labor city plus the assumed to be unwinnable Referendum. The longer he is left bleeding and inert by Parliamentary arithmetic the weaker he will look. I wouldn't be surprised to see him grasp the nettle sooner rather than later.


Also consider that the Brexit party continue to climb in the polls as the Tories continue to sink. If he calls a GE early he might be able to win back some of those voters.

I think he has every chance of winning them back with no-deal because he played such a big part in dragging leave across the line in 2016. His sell-out moment was backing the WA at the third time of asking but a lot of Brexiters did so in the belief that it was the last chance saloon for any form of Brexit. The key to it though will be Farage. If he genuinely just wants to get out without a 'treaty' then he makes that happen by focussing on disaffected Labour heartlands in the north.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:37 pm 
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Boris' election will hasten the breakup of the UK. So if anything, it would emphasise further that the Conservative party is now an English Nationalist party only.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:38 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
sturginho wrote:
Gospel wrote:
Nobleman wrote:
I'm trying to think of a recent PM who went down this route.....I don't think it worked out well.

Yeah it's very similar but with a rather important difference - May had a healthy majority remember but she was just about the worst campaigner in the history of the world with a manifesto built around targeting her own base. Compare with Boris who has won two mayoral elections in a Labor city plus the assumed to be unwinnable Referendum. The longer he is left bleeding and inert by Parliamentary arithmetic the weaker he will look. I wouldn't be surprised to see him grasp the nettle sooner rather than later.


Also consider that the Brexit party continue to climb in the polls as the Tories continue to sink. If he calls a GE early he might be able to win back some of those voters.

I think he has every chance of winning them back with no-deal because he played such a big part in dragging leave across the line in 2016. His sell-out moment was backing the WA at the third time of asking but a lot of Brexiters did so in the belief that it was the last chance saloon for any form of Brexit. The key to it though will be Farage. If he genuinely just wants to get out without a 'treaty' then he makes that happen by focussing on disaffected Labour heartlands in the north.


you mean by calling an election and campaigning on a no deal platform?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:39 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
ukjim wrote:
I cannot imagine a less suitable PM than fat Joffery to lead the country through no deal chaos.

if the UK is still constituent in 10 years we will have done well I think.

He might be the right person at the right time. Big ideas [think of all those bridges], bags of enthusiasm and optimism. It'd be wrong to discount that. Provided he's got a decent team around him like he had when he was Mayor it's not the worst thing that can happen. I think we could do far-far worse, Corbyn for example.

Back to the Brexit fall back of just believe. :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:41 pm 
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Ley me get this straight.

The UK is going to renege on an agreed amount it owes the EU, thus ensuring a "no deal" exit.

It is then going to go out into the world and attempt to make trade deals with other countries.

That is only going to end one way, and it won't be nice for the UK.

There won't have been a flight of money seen like it before.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:42 pm 
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Biffer29 wrote:
Boris' election will hasten the breakup of the UK. So if anything, it would emphasise further that the Conservative party is now an English Nationalist party only.



Rory Stewart is a nationalist?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:42 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
Nobleman wrote:
I'm trying to think of a recent PM who went down this route.....I don't think it worked out well.

Yeah it's very similar but with a rather important difference - May had a healthy majority remember but she was just about the worst campaigner in the history of the world with a manifesto built around targeting her own base. Compare with Boris who has won two mayoral elections in a Labor city plus the assumed to be unwinnable Referendum. The longer he is left bleeding and inert by Parliamentary arithmetic the weaker he will look. I wouldn't be surprised to see him grasp the nettle sooner rather than later.


The 2012 Johnson had a high popularity with the general public, the 2019 Johnson has a very poor rating.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/po ... ing-appeal

He's not even guaranteed to win his own seat in a GE, he's only got a 5k majority (in a London borough) which would be the lowest for any PM.


Last edited by Nobleman on Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:43 pm 
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camroc1 wrote:
Ley me get this straight.

The UK is going to renege on an agreed amount it owes the EU, thus ensuring a "no deal" exit.

It is then going to go out into the world and attempt to make trade deals with other countries.

That is only going to end one way, and it won't be nice for the UK.

There won't have been a flight of money seen like it before.



So we send 18, certainly don’t owe the membership fees if we leave.

“Flight of money” :lol: , you are so stupid.


Last edited by bimboman on Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:43 pm 
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sewa wrote:
nardol wrote:
Well - the UK owns parts of some joint EU investment vehicles ... EIB for one I think?

They should get some of that back.


We can give them a share of the profits from it :D


We :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:44 pm 
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Petej wrote:
Gospel wrote:
ukjim wrote:
I cannot imagine a less suitable PM than fat Joffery to lead the country through no deal chaos.

if the UK is still constituent in 10 years we will have done well I think.

He might be the right person at the right time. Big ideas [think of all those bridges], bags of enthusiasm and optimism. It'd be wrong to discount that. Provided he's got a decent team around him like he had when he was Mayor it's not the worst thing that can happen. I think we could do far-far worse, Corbyn for example.

Back to the Brexit fall back of just believe. :lol:


I assume its a pisstake, surely it is?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:46 pm 
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camroc1 wrote:
Ley me get this straight.

The UK is going to renege on an agreed amount it owes the EU, thus ensuring a "no deal" exit.

It is then going to go out into the world and attempt to make trade deals with other countries.

That is only going to end one way, and it won't be nice for the UK.

There won't have been a flight of money seen like it before.



Bigger problem is that rating agencies have already stated that if the UK dont pay they will be downgraded to non-investment grade. This would place UK bonds out of reach of a lot investors. Automatically this would push up by a lot the cost of the UK to finance itself. It already has a debt / gdp ratio of something close to 90%.

Trouble, trouble, trouble.


Thats ignoring the fact that in a hard brexit scenario the UK is likely to face higher government deficits in the first place.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:50 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
ukjim wrote:
I cannot imagine a less suitable PM than fat Joffery to lead the country through no deal chaos.

if the UK is still constituent in 10 years we will have done well I think.

He might be the right person at the right time. Big ideas [think of all those bridges], bags of enthusiasm and optimism. It'd be wrong to discount that. Provided he's got a decent team around him like he had when he was Mayor it's not the worst thing that can happen. I think we could do far-far worse, Corbyn for example.

Personally, I can't think of any positives for Johnson beyond Corbyn.

I'd give him charisma and erudition - he could be an asset to radio 4, imo.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:51 pm 
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Quote:
Beth Rigby

@BethRigby
NEW: Ballot closed and I’m told by sources on ‘22 that it was decided to disallowed phones in room because of an aggressive whipping operation from Team Johnson. Told had been instructed to take photo of their ballot paper to prove they’d backed Johnson.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:52 pm 
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The other elephant in the room is that any new Tory leader has to be voted in for PM by parliament.

That could be a lot of fun.


Last edited by tazman77 on Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:52 pm 
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normilet wrote:
Quote:
Beth Rigby

@BethRigby
NEW: Ballot closed and I’m told by sources on ‘22 that it was decided to disallowed phones in room because of an aggressive whipping operation from Team Johnson. Told had been instructed to take photo of their ballot paper to prove they’d backed Johnson.


Jesus H Christ, these are actual adults


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:54 pm 
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nardol wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
Ley me get this straight.

The UK is going to renege on an agreed amount it owes the EU, thus ensuring a "no deal" exit.

It is then going to go out into the world and attempt to make trade deals with other countries.

That is only going to end one way, and it won't be nice for the UK.

There won't have been a flight of money seen like it before.



Bigger problem is that rating agencies have already stated that if the UK dont pay they will be downgraded to non-investment grade. This would place UK bonds out of reach of a lot investors. Automatically this would push up by a lot the cost of the UK to finance itself. It already has a debt / gdp ratio of something close to 90%.

Trouble, trouble, trouble.


Thats ignoring the fact that in a hard brexit scenario the UK is likely to face higher government deficits in the first place.


Rating agency noises are not about non-payment itself but rather No Deal generally. It's not a credit default.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:54 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
ukjim wrote:
I cannot imagine a less suitable PM than fat Joffery to lead the country through no deal chaos.

if the UK is still constituent in 10 years we will have done well I think.

He might be the right person at the right time. Big ideas [think of all those bridges], bags of enthusiasm and optimism. It'd be wrong to discount that. Provided he's got a decent team around him like he had when he was Mayor it's not the worst thing that can happen. I think we could do far-far worse, Corbyn for example.


Don't you just love the optimism........

Image


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:59 pm 
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colonel wrote:
bimboman wrote:

Where ?



Near the door



:lol: :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:00 pm 
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nardol wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
Ley me get this straight.

The UK is going to renege on an agreed amount it owes the EU, thus ensuring a "no deal" exit.

It is then going to go out into the world and attempt to make trade deals with other countries.

That is only going to end one way, and it won't be nice for the UK.

There won't have been a flight of money seen like it before.



Bigger problem is that rating agencies have already stated that if the UK dont pay they will be downgraded to non-investment grade. This would place UK bonds out of reach of a lot investors. Automatically this would push up by a lot the cost of the UK to finance itself. It already has a debt / gdp ratio of something close to 90%.

Trouble, trouble, trouble.


Thats ignoring the fact that in a hard brexit scenario the UK is likely to face higher government deficits in the first place.


“Rating agencies have stated”

You can show that right ?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:01 pm 
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Like with most things TSG history will be the judge. I would rather Boris over the Marxists any day of the week.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:01 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
“Rating agencies have stated”

You can show that right ?

Macron said it so it must be true.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:03 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
nardol wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
Ley me get this straight.

The UK is going to renege on an agreed amount it owes the EU, thus ensuring a "no deal" exit.

It is then going to go out into the world and attempt to make trade deals with other countries.

That is only going to end one way, and it won't be nice for the UK.

There won't have been a flight of money seen like it before.



Bigger problem is that rating agencies have already stated that if the UK dont pay they will be downgraded to non-investment grade. This would place UK bonds out of reach of a lot investors. Automatically this would push up by a lot the cost of the UK to finance itself. It already has a debt / gdp ratio of something close to 90%.

Trouble, trouble, trouble.


Thats ignoring the fact that in a hard brexit scenario the UK is likely to face higher government deficits in the first place.


“Rating agencies have stated”

You can show that right ?


https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKCN1S228Y


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