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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:25 am 
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CM11 wrote:
Blackrock Bullet wrote:
CM11 wrote:
See above. The world bank figures come from the Nigerians back of a cig packet calculation. Not from any real data.


You've got way ahead of yourself here, the CSO are not on the ball either.


The CSO figures seem to be based on relevant data.

The Nigerian figure seems to be using all money coming into the country and then guessing where it's coming from.

I'm sure neither figure is right but I'd wager the CSO is a lot closer.



Kind of a problem no?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:59 am 
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You have to like the problems the woke face on a daily basis.

On the one hand Grealish is the racist because he is attempting to stereotype Nigerians.

On the other hand the reason he's racist is because the same woke types are basically saying "sure the Nigerian Government haven't a clue how to run their own figures.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:13 am 
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The Sun God wrote:
Nolanator wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
So one crowd is saying $601 and the others are saying it’s €17 ?

Jesus fudging wept :lol:


Nigerians can't tell the truth if their lives depend on it....

WB interviewer ...... So how much to you send home in remittances ?

Gboliwe,Dublin taxi driver....... One million dollars...!!

Nice bit of generalisation about almost 200 million people there. :thumbup:


Oh pull your head in Wendy.


he's not wrong


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:23 am 
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ticketlessinseattle wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
Nolanator wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
So one crowd is saying $601 and the others are saying it’s €17 ?

Jesus fudging wept :lol:


Nigerians can't tell the truth if their lives depend on it....

WB interviewer ...... So how much to you send home in remittances ?

Gboliwe,Dublin taxi driver....... One million dollars...!!

Nice bit of generalisation about almost 200 million people there. :thumbup:


Oh pull your head in Wendy.


he's not wrong

Jesus Christ.... and another.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:26 am 
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Mullet 2 wrote:
You have to like the problems the woke face on a daily basis.

On the one hand Grealish is the racist because he is attempting to stereotype Nigerians.

On the other hand the reason he's racist is because the same woke types are basically saying "sure the Nigerian Government haven't a clue how to run their own figures.


Those pesky Nigerian princes


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:31 am 
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What I’m wondering is

a) Why would the Nigerian government inflate the figures to that degree and how is it in their interests? Trying to encourage more people to emigrate?
b) How could the World Bank be so lax with basic checks and balances. Surely someone with half a brain spotted that there was a major anomaly in these figures. You’d have to worry about them


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:37 am 
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Conspicuous wrote:
What I’m wondering is

a) Why would the Nigerian government inflate the figures to that degree and how is it in their interests? Trying to encourage more people to emigrate?
b) How could the World Bank be so lax with basic checks and balances. Surely someone with half a brain spotted that there was a major anomaly in these figures. You’d have to worry about them


I doubt the world bank pays much attention to the Irish CSO.

Who knows what metric the world bank used. Standard metric where a % of total flows are taken?

Its at the very core of this argument. What is the actual amount and do these volumes have a legitimate source. Because lets face it - Nigeria is known as a place where fraudulent acts take place in regard to scams and money laundering. Sometimes a stereotype is a stereotype because its actually true.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:43 am 
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Conspicuous wrote:
What I’m wondering is

a) Why would the Nigerian government inflate the figures to that degree and how is it in their interests? Trying to encourage more people to emigrate?
b) How could the World Bank be so lax with basic checks and balances. Surely someone with half a brain spotted that there was a major anomaly in these figures. You’d have to worry about them

The Nigerians basically put their finger in the air and then pull a figure out of their arse, which the World Bank then polishes up as best it can but still can't stop the turd smelling of shit. From the IT :

Quote:

Galway West TD Noel Grealish has claimed in the Dáil that €3.54 billion in remittances has been sent from Ireland to Nigeria in the last eight years, citing the World Bank as his source.

However, just six weeks ago, Dáil records show Mr Grealish was given data from the CSO which says the flow to Nigeria is only €17 million a year for the same period, or €136 million – just 3.8 per cent of the figure offered by the Galway West TD.

There are 13,079 Irish-Nigerians or Nigerians living in the state, according to census data. World Bank data suggests each one is sending almost €34,000 a year to Nigeria. Using the CSO measure, it’s around €1,300 per year.

So, which one is more likely to be a good measure of remittances and why is there such a gap between the figures?
Nobody fills in a form every time they send a remittance home and lodges it with the CSO. This makes counting remittances very hard, because there’s no direct data source. Organisations like the World Bank and the CSO use what are called “indirect data sources” to estimate how big these cash flows might be.

How do the CSO measure this?
The CSO have said their methodology is in line with international best practice. They base their estimates on data from the revenue commissioners which shows how much foreign nationals earn. They use that to estimate disposable income, and then from that they calculate a likely remittance amount.

What about the World Bank?
The World Bank acknowledges, much like the CSO, that there are estimates and logical assumptions involved in its calculation of remittances. It uses data on the number of migrants in various destination countries, and the GDP per capita in both host and home countries. There are, however, problems in using these measures. Generally, developing countries struggle to provide accurate estimates of their diaspora numbers and where they are. Meanwhile, Irish GDP is artificially high, so it can give an out-sized indication of the wealth and remittance capacity of migrants living here.


Miriam Lord: Noel Grealish cuts remarkable figures with his loose grasp on facts
Noel Grealish knew exactly what he was doing
Nigerians in Ireland shocked and concerned by Grealish comments
So whose data is more accurate?
It is clear there is no perfect measure of remittances, but there have been well-published problems with the World Bank data. In 2013, Michael Noonan said the data “are open to serious scrutiny and the real figure may be a fraction of the published figure”. The World Bank itself has said there are “numerous challenges in compiling remittance-related data and making it more usable to underpin analysis”.

In 2015, authors from the International Organisation for Migration wrote that there is a “a question regarding what we can actually know about migrant remittances, and remittances at large, given the debatable nature of the parameters commonly used to craft remittance statistics”.

What can be said is that, while measuring remittances is hard, the CSO is closer to Irish-specific issues such as the distorting effect of GDP. It’s also the case that Independent TD Noel Grealish had both sets of data to hand, yet only chose to present a single figure – the significantly larger one – to the Dáil on Tuesday.

Is there a risk remittances could be used for financial crime?
The short answer is yes. Money remittance firms are ranked as high-risk in the state’s national risk assessment for money laundering and terrorist financing. Organised crime gangs use these networks, which often involve large cash transactions, to distribute and launder the proceeds of crime, including serious crimes like human trafficking. It is also a “highly lucrative area for banks and money remittance firms”, according to Peter Oakes, a former head of enforcement at the Central Bank and now an advisor to many payments firms. Identification standards, he says, have improved in recent years, with all firms requiring at least one proof of address and government-issued ID.

About 15 companies are authorised by the Central Bank as payment institutions. The company with the biggest network in Ireland is undoubtedly Western Union, with hundreds of outlets (operated under licence) around Ireland. In 2015 the Central Bank fined Western Union €1.75 million for breaches of the Criminal Justice (Money Laundering and Terrorism Finance) Act.

The Central Bank found that Western Union in Ireland had failed to demonstrate it had sufficiently robust policies and procedures for anti-money laundering and for countering the financing of terrorism.

In particular it pointed to its outsourcing of these functions to Lithuania, as well as failures in customer due diligence, and the induction and training of retail agents.

Moreover, it did not have adequate systems for monitoring and identifying suspicious activity. The company resolved the issues to the Central Bank’s satisfaction after that.

There is no evidence to suggest cash flows from Nigerians in Ireland would be particularly vulnerable over and above those from other nationalities.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:45 am 
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Sure you can't trust those Nigerians


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:47 am 
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Conspicuous wrote:
What I’m wondering is

a) Why would the Nigerian government inflate the figures to that degree and how is it in their interests? Trying to encourage more people to emigrate?
b) How could the World Bank be so lax with basic checks and balances. Surely someone with half a brain spotted that there was a major anomaly in these figures. You’d have to worry about them


In my previous life I would have been involved in building economic models for trading purposes. The economists would do the heavy lifting but always asked the trading desk for relevant input.

The World Bank is far from perfect in almost everything it tries to do but they are the bible in relation to Africa. They produce, through the 5000 economists and 20000 field staff, reams of data on a weekly basis which informs governments worldwide on issues relating to development aid, education, healthcare etc... The CSO in Cork have two men and a dog and I have never seen their data used anywhere outside of Ireland for anything.
Now while Leo states that the CSO are ' Internationally respected' I wonder who in the international statistical community he is talking about.... Eurostat maybe ? because I doubt too many other agencies have ever heard of them.

I have no idea of the methodology used by WB when compiling these numbers from Ireland but it should be noted that 'Remittances' form a major part in the economics and financial well being of the third world and as such I would have to imagine that the Washington based institution might have their finger on the pulse a little firmer than our friends in Cork.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:52 am 
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nardol wrote:
CM11 wrote:
Blackrock Bullet wrote:
CM11 wrote:
See above. The world bank figures come from the Nigerians back of a cig packet calculation. Not from any real data.


You've got way ahead of yourself here, the CSO are not on the ball either.


The CSO figures seem to be based on relevant data.

The Nigerian figure seems to be using all money coming into the country and then guessing where it's coming from.

I'm sure neither figure is right but I'd wager the CSO is a lot closer.



Kind of a problem no?


The CSO figure is a guess. We have Y number Nigerians in Ireland. We have an idea that they each send X € home each year. X*Y = there answer. It's a guess and as mentioned before, probably takes no account of the criminal earnings of Nigerian gangs in Ireland and washed through Ireland.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:56 am 
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The Sun God wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
What I’m wondering is

a) Why would the Nigerian government inflate the figures to that degree and how is it in their interests? Trying to encourage more people to emigrate?
b) How could the World Bank be so lax with basic checks and balances. Surely someone with half a brain spotted that there was a major anomaly in these figures. You’d have to worry about them


In my previous life I would have been involved in building economic models for trading purposes. The economists would do the heavy lifting but always asked the trading desk for relevant input.

The World Bank is far from perfect in almost everything it tries to do but they are the bible in relation to Africa. They produce, through the 5000 economists and 20000 field staff, reams of data on a weekly basis which informs governments worldwide on issues relating to development aid, education, healthcare etc... The CSO in Cork have two men and a dog and I have never seen their data used anywhere outside of Ireland for anything.
Now while Leo states that the CSO are ' Internationally respected' I wonder who in the international statistical community he is talking about.... Eurostat maybe ? because I doubt too many other agencies have ever heard of them.

I have no idea of the methodology used by WB when compiling these numbers from Ireland but it should be noted that 'Remittances' form a major part in the economics and financial well being of the third world and as such I would have to imagine that the Washington based institution might have their finger on the pulse a little firmer than our friends in Cork.



You racist bastard


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:58 am 
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I'd imagine if the CSO were asked what the average knackers earnings are, it would come in at about a tenth of the true figure. Probably not even that much.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:00 am 
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I imagine most of that money is wired to bank accounts in Nigeria?

Surely AIB and BOI could provide more accurate data. They are meant to have whole processes in place to filter out this AML.

Is western Union still a thing?

Or does the remittance come in the form of posting cash back home?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:02 am 
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nardol wrote:
I imagine most of that money is wired to bank accounts in Nigeria?

Surely AIB and BOI could provide more accurate data. They are meant to have whole processes in place to filter out this AML.

Is western Union still a thing?

Or does the remittance come in the form of posting cash back home?


Western Union is still in operation as far as I'm aware and was used for decades to more illegal money. I'm sure I read somewhere that the advent of bitcoin reduced their business massively.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:04 am 
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Liathroidigloine wrote:
I'd imagine if the CSO were asked what the average knackers earnings are, it would come in at about a tenth of the true figure. Probably not even that much.


That's the problem in Ireland. The politicians, who the majority aren't qualified to wash my car, rely on 'State agencies' for all their information, never questioning any of it.
Do you remember when the Irish Banking system was going through a 'liquidity' crisis 10 years back...... certainly nothing to do with solvency..... according to the Central Bank.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:06 am 
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In fairness to the TDs why have a dog and bark yourself


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:07 am 
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Mullet 2 wrote:
In fairness to the TDs why have a dog and bark yourself


In The Netherlands.............


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:08 am 
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Liathroidigloine wrote:
nardol wrote:
I imagine most of that money is wired to bank accounts in Nigeria?

Surely AIB and BOI could provide more accurate data. They are meant to have whole processes in place to filter out this AML.

Is western Union still a thing?

Or does the remittance come in the form of posting cash back home?


Western Union is still in operation as far as I'm aware and was used for decades to more illegal money. I'm sure I read somewhere that the advent of bitcoin reduced their business massively.


On the contrary mate.....WU are still very much in biz and so profitable that biz is they now face major competition from the likes of TransferWise, MoneyGram,Remitly and half a dozen others who have an App that can be downloaded anywhere in the world and bypasses local money laundering laws in the main.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:10 am 
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nardol wrote:
I imagine most of that money is wired to bank accounts in Nigeria?

Surely AIB and BOI could provide more accurate data. They are meant to have whole processes in place to filter out this AML.

Is western Union still a thing?

Or does the remittance come in the form of posting cash back home?


I am sure they would....if anyone ever used them !!


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:11 am 
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nardol wrote:
Mullet 2 wrote:
In fairness to the TDs why have a dog and bark yourself


In The Netherlands.............



You are the world centre for the drugs trade and Russian and European and African gangs to launder money and deal drugs.


Yes, we know.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:16 am 
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Mullet 2 wrote:
nardol wrote:
Mullet 2 wrote:
In fairness to the TDs why have a dog and bark yourself


In The Netherlands.............



You are the world centre for the drugs trade and Russian and European and African gangs to launder money and deal drugs.


Yes, we know.


You only know that because 'we' publish statistics on that. :smug:


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:28 am 
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Cheers Cammy for sharing that article and TSG for your insight :thumbup:
Sounds like the CSO figures are basically a guess based on number of migrants, average salary and what the average migrant would send home based on factors like cost of living in their home country etc, while they don’t allow for possible proceeds of crime etc. Meanwhile the World Bank have a greater resourced and more sophisticated approach in trying to ascertain how much money is being sent home by migrants , so while their figures are probably inaccurate as every transaction isn’t recorded , we should still take their estimates seriously?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:28 am 
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The Sun God wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
What I’m wondering is

a) Why would the Nigerian government inflate the figures to that degree and how is it in their interests? Trying to encourage more people to emigrate?
b) How could the World Bank be so lax with basic checks and balances. Surely someone with half a brain spotted that there was a major anomaly in these figures. You’d have to worry about them


In my previous life I would have been involved in building economic models for trading purposes. The economists would do the heavy lifting but always asked the trading desk for relevant input.

The World Bank is far from perfect in almost everything it tries to do but they are the bible in relation to Africa. They produce, through the 5000 economists and 20000 field staff, reams of data on a weekly basis which informs governments worldwide on issues relating to development aid, education, healthcare etc... The CSO in Cork have two men and a dog and I have never seen their data used anywhere outside of Ireland for anything.
Now while Leo states that the CSO are ' Internationally respected' I wonder who in the international statistical community he is talking about.... Eurostat maybe ? because I doubt too many other agencies have ever heard of them.

I have no idea of the methodology used by WB when compiling these numbers from Ireland but it should be noted that 'Remittances' form a major part in the economics and financial well being of the third world and as such I would have to imagine that the Washington based institution might have their finger on the pulse a little firmer than our friends in Cork.


The methodology is given above. And the figures come from Nigeria not the World Bank's own people:

Quote:
the remittance figures relating to Nigeria are estimates provided to the World Bank by the Nigerian authorities and not actual data. These estimates are based on total remittance inflows reported by Nigeria allocated according to its estimated stock of emigrants and further adjusted by the World Bank in the light of differing national per capita income levels. The World Bank believes that some elements of the estimation process may not be reliable.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:29 am 
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Conspicuous wrote:
Cheers Cammy for sharing that article and TSG for your insight :thumbup:
Sounds like the CSO figures are basically a guess based on number of migrants, average salary and what the average migrant would send home based on factors like cost of living in their home country etc, while they don’t allow for possible proceeds of crime etc. Meanwhile the World Bank have a greater resourced and more sophisticated approach in trying to ascertain how much money is being sent home by migrants , so while their figures are probably inaccurate as every transaction isn’t recorded , we should still take their estimates seriously?


Except they're not World Bank estimates.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:30 am 
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Christ, did none of you read the IT article.

The World bank model is a simple gravity model based on the difference in GDP/capita between Nigeria and other countries, with estimated remittances allocated in accordance with notional migrants calculated by a simple algorithm along the lines of X difference in GDP leads to Y Nigerian migrants, and Z remittance per migrant. ie stick a finger in the air.

The CSO have access to tax records of all Nigerians in Ireland working legitimately, or claiming SW, and base their estimate on a % of their actual earnings.

I know which figures I think are closer to reality.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:39 am 
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camroc1 wrote:
Christ, did none of you read the IT article.

The World bank model is a simple gravity model based on the difference in GDP/capita between Nigeria and other countries, with estimated remittances allocated in accordance with notional migrants calculated by a simple algorithm along the lines of X difference in GDP leads to Y Nigerian migrants, and Z remittance per migrant. ie stick a finger in the air.

The CSO have access to tax records of all Nigerians in Ireland working legitimately, or claiming SW, and base their estimate on a % of their actual earnings.

I know which figures I think are closer to reality.


The CSO figures are based on an assumption that everything is being done legitimately . If there is an issue with money being sent home under the radar from the proceeds of illegal activities, they don’t really look into it .So really their figures don’t tell us anything, or am I missing something here ?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:41 am 
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I'm sure all those taxi drivers ( Irish included) are very honest with their tax returns.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:42 am 
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CM11 wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
Cheers Cammy for sharing that article and TSG for your insight :thumbup:
Sounds like the CSO figures are basically a guess based on number of migrants, average salary and what the average migrant would send home based on factors like cost of living in their home country etc, while they don’t allow for possible proceeds of crime etc. Meanwhile the World Bank have a greater resourced and more sophisticated approach in trying to ascertain how much money is being sent home by migrants , so while their figures are probably inaccurate as every transaction isn’t recorded , we should still take their estimates seriously?


Except they're not World Bank estimates.


True , but would the World Bank really publish them if they thought they were so far at odds with reality? . And I still don’t understand why Nigeria would inflate the figures to that extent


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:42 am 
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Conspicuous wrote:
Cheers Cammy for sharing that article and TSG for your insight :thumbup:
Sounds like the CSO figures are basically a guess based on number of migrants, average salary and what the average migrant would send home based on factors like cost of living in their home country etc, while they don’t allow for possible proceeds of crime etc. Meanwhile the World Bank have a greater resourced and more sophisticated approach in trying to ascertain how much money is being sent home by migrants , so while their figures are probably inaccurate as every transaction isn’t recorded , we should still take their estimates seriously?


Careful there my friend...... Nols and Ticketless will accuse you of confirmation bias any minute now.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:46 am 
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camroc1 wrote:
Christ, did none of you read the IT article.

The World bank model is a simple gravity model based on the difference in GDP/capita between Nigeria and other countries, with estimated remittances allocated in accordance with notional migrants calculated by a simple algorithm along the lines of X difference in GDP leads to Y Nigerian migrants, and Z remittance per migrant. ie stick a finger in the air.

The CSO have access to tax records of all Nigerians in Ireland working legitimately, or claiming SW, and base their estimate on a % of their actual earnings.

I know which figures I think are closer to reality.


As I said, if you asked the CSO for average knacker earnings they would be a tenth of the truth. How do you square that circle?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:55 am 
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The Sun God wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
Cheers Cammy for sharing that article and TSG for your insight :thumbup:
Sounds like the CSO figures are basically a guess based on number of migrants, average salary and what the average migrant would send home based on factors like cost of living in their home country etc, while they don’t allow for possible proceeds of crime etc. Meanwhile the World Bank have a greater resourced and more sophisticated approach in trying to ascertain how much money is being sent home by migrants , so while their figures are probably inaccurate as every transaction isn’t recorded , we should still take their estimates seriously?


Careful there my friend...... Nols and Ticketless will accuse you of confirmation bias any minute now.


:lol: No bias here to be confirmed. Just asking a few questions to help get my head around this bizarre situation :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:55 am 
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camroc1 wrote:
Christ, did none of you read the IT article.

The World bank model is a simple gravity model based on the difference in GDP/capita between Nigeria and other countries, with estimated remittances allocated in accordance with notional migrants calculated by a simple algorithm along the lines of X difference in GDP leads to Y Nigerian migrants, and Z remittance per migrant. ie stick a finger in the air.

The CSO have access to tax records of all Nigerians in Ireland working legitimately, or claiming SW, and base their estimate on a % of their actual earnings.

I know which figures I think are closer to reality.


Yes I did read it and nothing there suggests to me that the CSO numbers and their methodology in collating them is anywhere near accurate either.
Did you get through that 'liquidity crisis' ok Cam ?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:58 am 
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CM11 wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
Cheers Cammy for sharing that article and TSG for your insight :thumbup:
Sounds like the CSO figures are basically a guess based on number of migrants, average salary and what the average migrant would send home based on factors like cost of living in their home country etc, while they don’t allow for possible proceeds of crime etc. Meanwhile the World Bank have a greater resourced and more sophisticated approach in trying to ascertain how much money is being sent home by migrants , so while their figures are probably inaccurate as every transaction isn’t recorded , we should still take their estimates seriously?


Except they're not World Bank estimates.



Gone full Bimbo now are you? Two minutes of googling and you know more than a trader.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:11 pm 
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Mullet 2 wrote:
CM11 wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
Cheers Cammy for sharing that article and TSG for your insight :thumbup:
Sounds like the CSO figures are basically a guess based on number of migrants, average salary and what the average migrant would send home based on factors like cost of living in their home country etc, while they don’t allow for possible proceeds of crime etc. Meanwhile the World Bank have a greater resourced and more sophisticated approach in trying to ascertain how much money is being sent home by migrants , so while their figures are probably inaccurate as every transaction isn’t recorded , we should still take their estimates seriously?


Except they're not World Bank estimates.



Gone full Bimbo now are you? Two minutes of googling and you know more than a trader.


Eh, I've given you a quote from the Minister of Finance above.

I'm not for a second suggesting anything TSG has said about the World Bank/CSO is inaccurate. I'm pointing out that none of the 5,000 economists or 20,000 field agents he mentions above were involved in the estimates. At least according the the quote given by a man who knows more about it than me.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:16 pm 
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Conspicuous wrote:
CM11 wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
Cheers Cammy for sharing that article and TSG for your insight :thumbup:
Sounds like the CSO figures are basically a guess based on number of migrants, average salary and what the average migrant would send home based on factors like cost of living in their home country etc, while they don’t allow for possible proceeds of crime etc. Meanwhile the World Bank have a greater resourced and more sophisticated approach in trying to ascertain how much money is being sent home by migrants , so while their figures are probably inaccurate as every transaction isn’t recorded , we should still take their estimates seriously?


Except they're not World Bank estimates.


True , but would the World Bank really publish them if they thought they were so far at odds with reality? . And I still don’t understand why Nigeria would inflate the figures to that extent


They're not inflating figures as such. As far as I can tell from the quote above, they're guessing where all the money coming into the country is coming from and that guess is based on nothing more than looking at where Nigerians are living abroad.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:19 pm 
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I had assumed at the start of all this that it was transfers they could link directly to Ireland but it seems not. That said, why not? Surely there's a paper trail for most, if not all, of this money? And I don't mean to the individual sending it, just country origin?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:38 pm 
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Conspicuous wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
Christ, did none of you read the IT article.

The World bank model is a simple gravity model based on the difference in GDP/capita between Nigeria and other countries, with estimated remittances allocated in accordance with notional migrants calculated by a simple algorithm along the lines of X difference in GDP leads to Y Nigerian migrants, and Z remittance per migrant. ie stick a finger in the air.

The CSO have access to tax records of all Nigerians in Ireland working legitimately, or claiming SW, and base their estimate on a % of their actual earnings.

I know which figures I think are closer to reality.


The CSO figures are based on an assumption that everything is being done legitimately . If there is an issue with money being sent home under the radar from the proceeds of illegal activities, they don’t really look into it .So really their figures don’t tell us anything, or am I missing something here ?

And where are the 10's of thousands of illegal Nigerians in the streets, when you go walking around town ?

They are a figment of your imagination, my friend.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:43 pm 
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CM11 wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
CM11 wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
Cheers Cammy for sharing that article and TSG for your insight :thumbup:
Sounds like the CSO figures are basically a guess based on number of migrants, average salary and what the average migrant would send home based on factors like cost of living in their home country etc, while they don’t allow for possible proceeds of crime etc. Meanwhile the World Bank have a greater resourced and more sophisticated approach in trying to ascertain how much money is being sent home by migrants , so while their figures are probably inaccurate as every transaction isn’t recorded , we should still take their estimates seriously?


Except they're not World Bank estimates.


True , but would the World Bank really publish them if they thought they were so far at odds with reality? . And I still don’t understand why Nigeria would inflate the figures to that extent


They're not inflating figures as such. As far as I can tell from the quote above, they're guessing where all the money coming into the country is coming from and that guess is based on nothing more than looking at where Nigerians are living abroad.


Interesting. So they’re not guessing the amount that’s coming into the country , they’re just guessing where it’s coming from, and they’re assigning a figure to Ireland that’s totally disproportionate to what our government agency says it should be, right? . We really need to see the total figure estimated by Nigeria for money sent into the country by foreign migrants and see how that compares to estimates by government agencies in countries with large numbers of Nigerian migrants, then we should be getting somewhere.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:44 pm 
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camroc1 wrote:
Conspicuous wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
Christ, did none of you read the IT article.

The World bank model is a simple gravity model based on the difference in GDP/capita between Nigeria and other countries, with estimated remittances allocated in accordance with notional migrants calculated by a simple algorithm along the lines of X difference in GDP leads to Y Nigerian migrants, and Z remittance per migrant. ie stick a finger in the air.

The CSO have access to tax records of all Nigerians in Ireland working legitimately, or claiming SW, and base their estimate on a % of their actual earnings.

I know which figures I think are closer to reality.


The CSO figures are based on an assumption that everything is being done legitimately . If there is an issue with money being sent home under the radar from the proceeds of illegal activities, they don’t really look into it .So really their figures don’t tell us anything, or am I missing something here ?

And where are the 10's of thousands of illegal Nigerians in the streets, when you go walking around town ?

They are a figment of your imagination, my friend.


You’ve lost me there :lol:


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