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 Post subject: Uk dead pool game on FB
PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:00 pm 
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Bad taste or not, there is some science behind the ‘how many will end up dying from the virus’ question.

Just for the UK, when this outbreak ends (god willing) in a few weeks, what will the final virus death toll be in the Uk ? Highest number quoted I saw was 60 million (cheery hey!) to 0 (all a conspiracy) but for serious estimates, I’ve seen 100 to 10,000

I’ve gone low at 800, what are your thoughts ? I’m counting on a hot April killing the bugs off, based purely on in past 3 wet winters, the April was warm in two of them.

As I write , current UK death toll is 220

Poster guesses
Me - 800
Scarface claw - 12750
Bogbunny - 12345
Paddyor - 80000


Last edited by backrow on Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:09 am, edited 3 times in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:02 pm 
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Not sure I’ve ever seen an edge this thick.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:05 pm 
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So you have no opinion on final death toll numbers then ?


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:12 pm 
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Hopefully this thread will have a quick death


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:13 pm 
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Keith wrote:
Hopefully this thread will have a quick death

Since when did you get touchy, as you are normally a big bollox


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:13 pm 
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backrow wrote:
So you have no opinion on final death toll numbers then ?



Opinion?

He’s writing policies on the number.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:15 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
So you have no opinion on final death toll numbers then ?



Opinion?

He’s writing policies on the number.


Is it 800?


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 pm 
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backrow wrote:
Keith wrote:
Hopefully this thread will have a quick death

Since when did you get touchy, as you are normally a big bollox

There's some things not to joke about, even for a bellend like me.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:19 pm 
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Keith wrote:
backrow wrote:
Keith wrote:
Hopefully this thread will have a quick death

Since when did you get touchy, as you are normally a big bollox

There's some things not to joke about, even for a bellend like me.


I am not making a joke about it ? Where on this thread have I trolled anything ?
The thing on FB wasn’t mine and yes you get a lot of racist on there, but final death toll thoughts are interesting and sobering.

So, what’s your number or thoughts, or are you just staying offended ?


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:32 pm 
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Yeeb - I’ll go 12,750.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:43 pm 
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backrow wrote:
Bad taste or not, there is some science behind the ‘how many will end up dying from the virus’ question.

Just for the UK, when this outbreak ends (god willing) in a few weeks, what will the final virus death toll be in the Uk ? Highest number quoted I saw was 60 million (cheery hey!) to 0 (all a conspiracy) but for serious estimates, I’ve seen 100 to 10,000

I’ve gone low at 800, what are your thoughts ? I’m counting on a hot April killing the bugs off, based purely on in past 3 wet winters, the April was warm in two of them.

As I write , current UK death toll is 220

I thought the governments wildest dreams were under 20,000 if we all do as we are told.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:49 pm 
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ScarfaceClaw wrote:
Yeeb - I’ll go 12,750.


Added to OP


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:52 pm 
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I wonder how many deaths will be needed before I'm successful in getting some bogroll. :(


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:53 pm 
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Uk mil science worst case is 50k minimum. I have no longer term stats, but wouldn't discount the worst case scenario.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:00 pm 
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fatcat wrote:
I wonder how many deaths will be needed before I'm successful in getting some bogroll. :(

If you fancy a roadtrip to Southampton I'll happily donate some! I ended up with way too much after my GF's visit here was cancelled.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:06 pm 
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Nolanator wrote:
fatcat wrote:
I wonder how many deaths will be needed before I'm successful in getting some bogroll. :(

If you fancy a roadtrip to Southampton I'll happily donate some! I ended up with way too much after my GF's visit here was cancelled.


Surely in that case you will still need toilet tissue ? Amiright?


Last edited by backrow on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:12 pm 
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:lol:
No more than usual!


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:15 pm 
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Nolanator wrote:
:lol:
No more than usual!


Buster O’Gonad


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:36 pm 
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Nolanator wrote:
fatcat wrote:
I wonder how many deaths will be needed before I'm successful in getting some bogroll. :(

If you fancy a roadtrip to Southampton I'll happily donate some! I ended up with way too much after my GF's visit here was cancelled.


Thanks but it won't be too much hassle to wash my arse in the kitchen sink, although I'll have to do the washing up then.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:39 pm 
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Without wanting to get involved in this shit show of a thread, 800? We'd be lucky to keep it below that by the end of next week.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:43 pm 
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12,345.

Hopefully none of the Bored,


Stay safe guys.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:49 pm 
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67,786,872


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:52 pm 
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I think the estimate for deaths without any mitigation was around 500,000 for the UK.

If the current suppression strategy is successful, we will hopefully keep deaths to around 10,000, but large parts of the country still seem to be treating this is a minor irritation, rather than a major public health crisis, so who knows.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:52 pm 
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Anonymous. wrote:
backrow wrote:
Bad taste or not, there is some science behind the ‘how many will end up dying from the virus’ question.

Just for the UK, when this outbreak ends (god willing) in a few weeks, what will the final virus death toll be in the Uk ? Highest number quoted I saw was 60 million (cheery hey!) to 0 (all a conspiracy) but for serious estimates, I’ve seen 100 to 10,000

I’ve gone low at 800, what are your thoughts ? I’m counting on a hot April killing the bugs off, based purely on in past 3 wet winters, the April was warm in two of them.

As I write , current UK death toll is 220

I thought the governments wildest dreams were under 20,000 if we all do as we are told.

Yep. 25000 would be a very good outcome. Having read alarming reports of morons at the seaside though most transmission doesn't occur in outside gatherings like beaches. 120000.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:07 am 
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Petej wrote:
Anonymous. wrote:
backrow wrote:
Bad taste or not, there is some science behind the ‘how many will end up dying from the virus’ question.

Just for the UK, when this outbreak ends (god willing) in a few weeks, what will the final virus death toll be in the Uk ? Highest number quoted I saw was 60 million (cheery hey!) to 0 (all a conspiracy) but for serious estimates, I’ve seen 100 to 10,000

I’ve gone low at 800, what are your thoughts ? I’m counting on a hot April killing the bugs off, based purely on in past 3 wet winters, the April was warm in two of them.

As I write , current UK death toll is 220

I thought the governments wildest dreams were under 20,000 if we all do as we are told.

Yep. 25000 would be a very good outcome. Having read alarming reports of morons at the seaside though most transmission doesn't occur in outside gatherings like beaches. 120000.
We seem to be about 3 weeks behind Italy and I reckon they will be over 20k sometime next week. This is going o last for months.
W


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:15 am 
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Jesus Christ


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:21 am 
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From this point, any number below 50,000 is a result


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:22 am 
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Yeah, I don't think it's going to be a couple of weeks and 800 Yeeb...

This thing is going to run us all over.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:23 am 
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What an abortion of a thread
Please everyone stay safe out there and make sure your actions keep everyone else safe


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:31 am 
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Jesus :uhoh:

What's with this infantile need to always be edgy.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:32 am 
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Winnie wrote:
What an abortion of a thread
Please everyone stay safe out there and make sure your actions keep everyone else safe


Well said Winnie :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:44 am 
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80k
1)based on Hong Long Flu deaths
2)the warm weather not doing anything to stop it(spreading in warm climates now)
3)lack of ventilators and anasthesiests.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:46 am 
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Not a great thread. You may want to remove Yeeb


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:00 am 
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I think keep it as a monument to his complete misunderstanding of the severity.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:01 am 
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Actually I might try and instigate something similar with my bosses who think it's OK to keep the office open, so I can show them just how wrong they got this.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:15 am 
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Edit - distasteful

Giving myself an uppercut.


Last edited by J Man on Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:28 am, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:16 am 
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RodneyRegis wrote:
Actually I might try and instigate something similar with my bosses who think it's OK to keep the office open, so I can show them just how wrong they got this.

I've started working from home but our office is still going to be open tomorrow. Granted instead of the usual 50 people there are only going to be about 8 from Monday so better late than never


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:20 am 
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Winnie wrote:
What an abortion of a thread
Please everyone stay safe out there and make sure your actions keep everyone else safe

:thumbup:


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:22 am 
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Sefton wrote:
Winnie wrote:
What an abortion of a thread
Please everyone stay safe out there and make sure your actions keep everyone else safe

:thumbup:
:thumbup: :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:06 am 
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RuggaBugga wrote:
Jesus :uhoh:

What's with this infantile need to always be edgy.


Hmm you are reading what you want to read here, what exactly have I said here that’s edgy? It’s just a thing on Facebook that I thought was interesting. My 800 may be woefully low and optimistic but at least I gave my reasons for my number. Surely estimating final death toll is a valid topic at the moment ?

I can add some bad taste attempt at a joke if you want me to be edgy though, not sure how that will help


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