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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:57 pm 
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disclaimer: no idea how accurate this is. I guess it's based on betting odds. Unfortunately I think they have over estimated the Wallabies chance.

Pretty much inline with my pre tournament speculation though. NZ, Eng, SA and then a few outside shots in Aus, Wales and Ire.


Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:01 pm 
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The rest of the world combined are underdogs to one tiny rugby obsessed island. :lol:

It's a special sport (slash religion if you're a kiwi).

Let's go Wales!


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:13 pm 
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Mog The Almighty wrote:
The rest of the world combined are underdogs to one tiny rugby obsessed island. :lol:

It's a special sport (slash religion if you're a kiwi).

Let's go Wales!


I dont see how we are 4 times more likely than England to win the world cup.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:20 pm 
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booze wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
The rest of the world combined are underdogs to one tiny rugby obsessed island. :lol:

It's a special sport (slash religion if you're a kiwi).

Let's go Wales!


I dont see how we are 4 times more likely than England to win the world cup.


Compound probability. Even if you are good favorites with 70% chance of winning each game with two knock out games and the final, you'd still only have a ~33% of winning the cup. Anyone into poker knows all about it. Throw in a 50% and it gets much worse.


Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:20 pm 
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They have a probable meeting with England in the semi final, the final will be easier.

In any case, that's going to be some choke if they don't win it.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:22 pm 
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Can you expand on who the "one tiny rugby obsessed island" is?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:24 pm 
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I’d say any team with an imminent extra rest week is about to destroy this already dubious model


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:24 pm 
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sonic_attack wrote:
Can you expand on who the "one tiny rugby obsessed island" is?

They also have a 98% probability of breaking into haka anytime someone sneezes.

Clear it up?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:24 pm 
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Mog The Almighty wrote:
Image

disclaimer: no idea how accurate this is. I guess it's based on betting odds. Unfortunately I think they have over estimated the Wallabies chance.

Pretty much inline with my pre tournament speculation though. NZ, Eng, SA and then a few outside shots in Aus, Wales and Ire.


What is the source of this statistical garbage?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:24 pm 
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Vanuatu? New Caledonia? Tahiti?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:25 pm 
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naki wrote:
I’d say any team with an imminent extra rest week is about to destroy this already dubious model


I assume you mean cancelled games. Will that help or hinder development?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:26 pm 
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Mog The Almighty wrote:
sonic_attack wrote:
Can you expand on who the "one tiny rugby obsessed island" is?

They also have a 98% probability of breaking into haka anytime someone sneezes.

Clear it up?



So how does "island" and "haka" relate to France?

You don't actually know wtf is going on do you.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:26 pm 
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LandOTurk wrote:
naki wrote:
I’d say any team with an imminent extra rest week is about to destroy this already dubious model


I assume you mean cancelled games. Will that help or hinder development?


Are you joking?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:26 pm 
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Plato'sCave wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
Image

disclaimer: no idea how accurate this is. I guess it's based on betting odds. Unfortunately I think they have over estimated the Wallabies chance.

Pretty much inline with my pre tournament speculation though. NZ, Eng, SA and then a few outside shots in Aus, Wales and Ire.


What is the source of this statistical garbage?
Random post in the Scandinavian Rugby Facebook group. How dare you question a graph!! How dare you.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:31 pm 
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.


Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:31 pm 
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Mog The Almighty wrote:
Plato'sCave wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
Image

disclaimer: no idea how accurate this is. I guess it's based on betting odds. Unfortunately I think they have over estimated the Wallabies chance.

Pretty much inline with my pre tournament speculation though. NZ, Eng, SA and then a few outside shots in Aus, Wales and Ire.


What is the source of this statistical garbage?
Random post in the Scandinavian Rugby Facebook group. How dare you question a graph!! How dare you.


My mistake, please accept this data visualisation which can only therefore be met with your acquiescence

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