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When will the Beetroot end up in the compost?
A week. If he is lucky 8%  8%  [ 3 ]
A few months at best 14%  14%  [ 5 ]
At least a year 24%  24%  [ 9 ]
He will see out his term 11%  11%  [ 4 ]
He will see his new unborn childs 21st birthday from the duchy of New England 16%  16%  [ 6 ]
What, that filthy sheep shagger? 27%  27%  [ 10 ]
Total votes : 37
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:57 am 
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guy smiley wrote:
wamberal99 wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:
So if/when Phelps wins how long before a no confidence vote, then two or three months of shit fighting via the media as they will all be off until around Australia Day and an election March? What can happen sooner?



Why do you assume they would lose a confidence vote? There are a few independents who will support the government, come hell or high water.


If there was a no confidence vote, and an early election, there would be hell to pay for the independents who brought it on. Self-interest will ensure that this parliament runs full term, or as close to it as the tories want it to.


The no confidence motion in Peter Dutton carried by one vote.

They could easily lose the house if Phelps gets up. It would take something pretty juicy but these cnuts have been marinading in their own shitmess for long enough to be dripping all over the buffet. Get an inflamed issue up and sit back and watch.

Kids on Nauru, say. Or action on climate change in the face of drought and farmers demanding it.

I think Wambers is more on the money here. Not that I wanna be his White Knight :)

The no confidence motion in The Dutron didn't mean much in the overall scheme - even if it had been carried. Now, a slightly more meaningful action from here would be if they referred his eligibility to sit in the parliament to the High Court. That could potentially force another by-election, after the machinations of the process played out.

However, even that is not the same as overturning the sitting government.

The odds of that happening are considerably longer. Caution is needed when getting between politicians (even independent cross-benchers) and their lunch. They don't readily vote to end their own jobs, even if only a few months ahead of a required election.

But ... we'll see!


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:06 am 
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Tend to agree but nothings off the table, right? :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:11 am 
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So hope she wins & then parliament goes after Dutton & refers him to high court


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:25 am 
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guy smiley wrote:
Tend to agree but nothings off the table, right? :lol:

Fair do's. Still, do you like betting odds? :P

  • An avatar bet on a motion of no-confidence in the government being carried in the house of reps in the next 6 months. I will give you 10 weeks to 1.

  • If carried, you own my icon's ass for ten weeks. Otherwise I get to do my worst to yours for one week (no gore or pron obviously as per bored rules).

I don't particularly give a tinker's about the gov't remaining up or not. This is about prediction. :)

Do we have a deal?


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:42 am 
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kiap wrote:
guy smiley wrote:
Tend to agree but nothings off the table, right? :lol:

Fair do's. Still, do you like betting odds? :P

  • An avatar bet on a motion of no-confidence in the government being carried in the house of reps in the next 6 months. I will give you 10 weeks to 1.

  • If carried, you own my icon's ass for ten weeks. Otherwise I get to do my worst to yours for one week (no gore or pron obviously as per bored rules).

I don't particularly give a tinker's about the gov't remaining up or not. This is about prediction. :)

Do we have a deal?


Yeah why not? That’s a fun bet for all the family to enjoy :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:45 am 
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guy smiley wrote:
kiap wrote:
guy smiley wrote:
Tend to agree but nothings off the table, right? :lol:

Fair do's. Still, do you like betting odds? :P

  • An avatar bet on a motion of no-confidence in the government being carried in the house of reps in the next 6 months. I will give you 10 weeks to 1.

  • If carried, you own my icon's ass for ten weeks. Otherwise I get to do my worst to yours for one week (no gore or pron obviously as per bored rules).

I don't particularly give a tinker's about the gov't remaining up or not. This is about prediction. :)

Do we have a deal?


Yeah why not? That’s a fun bet for all the family to enjoy :lol:

Good man :thumbup: :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:18 am 
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Early signs... 30% swing


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:18 am 
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guy smiley wrote:
Early signs... 30% swing

:thumbup:

Yep very early but Phelps looking good. fudge your Libs, so hope she gets in


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:22 am 
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Sky News' political editor David Speers has called it for Phelps, with 7.9% counted :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:30 am 
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Antony Green has called, no need to say anymore if he has. Yeah baby woohoo fudge you scomo etal

Sure they’ll blame it on Turnbull not campaigning :lol: conveniently forgetting they threw him out in the first place :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:32 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
Sky News' political editor David Speers has called it for Phelps, with 7.9% counted :lol:

Antony Green has called it too mate.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:33 am 
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Just received the text, massive retaliation against the Libs, ScumMo's days must be numbered from here :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:32 am 
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Quote from scomo tonight and this fuckwit wonders why they just got trounced in Wentworth

Scott Morrison is on a roll. The crowd does the back-up singing.

It’s what we believe. We believe in a fair go for those who have a go. We believe that the best form of welfare is a job.
Yeah!
We believe it is every Australians’ duty to make a contribution and not take a contribution.
Yeah!
And we believe this: You don’t raise people up by bringing others down.
Yeah!
Let me tell you who doesn’t believe those things: The Labor party.
Shame!
Bill Shorten doesn’t believe those things.
Shame!
My message to Bill Shorten is you will never lead a country that you want to divide.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:42 am 
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Salient wrote:
Just received the text, massive retaliation against the Libs, ScumMo's days must be numbered from here :thumbup:


Conservatives seem to think the answer to the LNP's problems is Peter Dutton.... :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:38 pm 
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swc wrote:
Quote from scomo tonight and this fuckwit wonders why they just got trounced in Wentworth

Scott Morrison is on a roll. The crowd does the back-up singing.

It’s what we believe. We believe in a fair go for those who have a go. We believe that the best form of welfare is a job.
Yeah!
We believe it is every Australians’ duty to make a contribution and not take a contribution.
Yeah!
And we believe this: You don’t raise people up by bringing others down.
Yeah!
Let me tell you who doesn’t believe those things: The Labor party.
Shame!
Bill Shorten doesn’t believe those things.
Shame!
My message to Bill Shorten is you will never lead a country that you want to divide.

That poor dumb cúnt Morrison won't be leading a school tuckshop committee, come a few months hence.

The Libnat scum are just so very, very fúcked that doing up my fly is a real trial since I need to fend off a raging py-thon the entire time.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:41 pm 
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Dubya Howard wrote:
Salient wrote:
Just received the text, massive retaliation against the Libs, ScumMo's days must be numbered from here :thumbup:


Conservatives seem to think the answer to the LNP's problems is Peter Dutton.... :lol:


They really are flinging themselves down the rabbit hole with collective feet in mouths.

Waiting for the usual post election platitudes.

We have heard what the people are saying, and it's all Malcolm's fault :nod:


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:31 pm 
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So last night's result was the biggest swing against a sitting government in a bye-election in Australian political history. No need for hyperbole or exaggeration when the result was so dramatic and so unexpected.

Even a marketing whiz such as Morrison will find it impossible to put a positive spin on this result. But in the end this still might be a really good outcome for him and his party.

Crisis is an opportunity, and the sheer enormity of this swing should send a clear message to his Party that disunity is death. If there was any further evidence that the leakers and trouble makes in his party needed that the status quo cannot continue, and that the incessant in-fighting is toxic out in the electorate, then last night's bye-election was it. If the result in Wentworth doesn't galvanise the Liberal Party, and force them to put aside their internal differences for the sake of the party, then absolutely nothing will. After last night, Scott Morrison has the opportunity to strengthen his leadership and rule the party like a dictator, because any disunity can no longer be tolerated or accepted.

The result in Wentworth result gives Scott Morrison the ability and excuse to put all policies on the table, and make any changes he feels are necessary. Even if these changes may be dramatic. Sometimes you need to hit rock bottom before you can heal and renew, and last night the Liberal Party of Australia hit rock bottom. Scott Morrison now has a golden opportunity to come up with a genuine policy on climate change. He needs to act quickly and move the remaining souls on Nauru, and he needs to get the mess in public school education sorted out. He also needs to release the Ruddock Report into religious freedom and then act in a way that doesn't alienate what is an in increasingly secular populace.

Of course just because this Wentworth catastrophe has given Morrison an opportunity doesn't mean he will take it. This result could in fact worsen internal divisions. Startled backbenchers sitting in marginal seats won't have slept well last night, and could potentially be spooked into another leadership spill. Messers Abbott and Dutton will always be wreckers, it's in their DNA, and they themselves might see that this bye-election result gives their faction a golden opportunity to act decisively, and take control of the Liberal Party.

Whilst I don't think the messages of Wentworth will necessarily apply across any other electorates, I think it is clear and obvious that the Coaition are headed off the cliff into political oblivion. The electorate has stopped listening to them, and business as usual won't be enough between now and the next Federal poll, which is due around May. Will the in-fighting amongst the Liberals continue? Will Scott Morrison continue on as leader? Will this result force them to act on Climate Change. Or will they continue their slow, morbid death-march to the Right? So many questions that will be all answered over the next few months. What an exciting time to live in Australia!


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:18 pm 
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Josh Frydenberg on 'Speers on Sunday' this morning boasting that the Liberals won't be budging on their Climate Change policies, despite the strong message delivered by the voters of Wentworth.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:21 pm 
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Quote:
Will the in-fighting amongst the Liberals continue? Will Scott Morrison continue on as leader? Will this result force them to act on Climate Change. Or will they continue their slow, morbid death-march to the Right?


"These questions—and many others—will be answered in the next episode of...Soap." ...


Last edited by Taranaki Snapper on Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:13 am 
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The result was not unexpected. Blind Freddy knew that there was going to be a helluva swing in the seat that Turnbull had made his own.


Morrison needs to forget about all the hype and cut-through bullshit. He needs to put his head down, and work feverishly on updating the coalition's policies.


I do suspect that we might be in for a dramatic rejuggling of the political landscape over the next few years.


The National Party, for example, contains some very green elements, and they will just get stronger, as the realities of climate change and environmental degradation become more and more telling.


Ditto the Liberals, of course.


The ALP seems to be pretty much totally composed of greyish party apparatchiks. Where are the rebels? The wild women and men who gave the party its oomph?


The nation yearns for authenticity. Not the carefully choreographed, scripted, focus group approved bullshit that we are being fed.


We need some bravery. Politicians who are willing to tell the truth, come hell or high water, and who are also willing to stand or fall by their principles.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:28 am 
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wamberal99 wrote:
The ALP seems to be pretty much totally composed of greyish party apparatchiks. Where are the rebels? The wild women and men who gave the party its oomph?


Give me competent and considered over "wild" any day of the week. When I think "wild" I think 'un-electable'. I think of Mark Latham. In Opposition since 2013 the ALP has successfully re-modelled itself as the party of the centre. A little to the right on border protection and taxation, a little to the left on climate change and education, but overall I like where they are at from a policy stand point. I'm no fan of Bill Shorten (is anyone?) but I admire the unity and discipline that he has imposed on the party as the leader. I also like that he's a pragmatist, not an idealist. Save idealism for the loons of the far right and far left. Owning the centre is all about compromise.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:39 am 
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Wambers has a point.

Labor and the LNP both follow the formula, driven by analysts and back office type direction. Both are tired old establishment type machine politics parties. They’re both increasingly out of touch with the electorate which is itself being pushed and pulled by media forces no one really understands...

This seat was won by a strong independent who took votes off EVERY party. There’s the story of the next few years previewed for you. More and more seats will go the same way as candidates are emboldened.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:42 am 
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Quote:
Voting For An Independent In Wentworth Will Lead To Instability, Says Nation’s Fifth Prime Minister Since 2013


http://www.theshovel.com.au/2018/10/20/ ... ince-2013/


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:47 am 
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Postal votes in Wentworth are falling much more strongly for the Libs than was expected last night. Result is much closer now and Phelps may not get over the line


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:55 am 
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She’s still going to win... the margin is maybe going to drop down to as low as 500 votes though.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:57 am 
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Postal voters are generally those who REALLY Care.

I'd expect to see more votes for her emerge.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:05 am 
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Shirley not the same Bazza once of these shores, but a great quote in the SMH letters:

Quote:
Well done ScotMo ......you stopped the votes.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:38 am 
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Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
Postal voters are generally those who REALLY Care.

I'd expect to see more votes for her emerge.

Running at 64% to Sharma at the moment. Only counting the postal votes received so far and not counted it's not enough to make a difference, but there are >5000 postal votes sent out but not received yet


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:49 am 
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One would think that there would be a fair number of observant Jewish voters in the prepolling, polling day being the sabbath and all. Sharma should pick up a few there.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:00 am 
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Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
Postal voters are generally those who REALLY Care.

I'd expect to see more votes for her emerge.


I think a few news sites are creating doubt over the result to generate clicks, but I can't see Sharma having enough votes to win this. Even if he does scrape home off the back of postals, this is still a terrible result for the Coalition and for Scott Morrison.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:42 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
Postal voters are generally those who REALLY Care.

I'd expect to see more votes for her emerge.


I think a few news sites are creating doubt over the result to generate clicks, but I can't see Sharma having enough votes to win this. Even if he does scrape home off the back of postals, this is still a terrible result for the Coalition and for Scott Morrison.


Indeed it is.

What a pack of Arseclowns!

I actually feel sorry for Sharma - he seems like a nice bloke. Just completely hamstrung by his party from day one.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:11 am 
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To be fair, Antony Green is saying similar things and he's about as respected as they come


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:41 am 
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Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
Postal voters are generally those who REALLY Care.

I'd expect to see more votes for her emerge.


I think a few news sites are creating doubt over the result to generate clicks, but I can't see Sharma having enough votes to win this. Even if he does scrape home off the back of postals, this is still a terrible result for the Coalition and for Scott Morrison.


Indeed it is.

What a pack of Arseclowns!

I actually feel sorry for Sharma - he seems like a nice bloke. Just completely hamstrung by his party from day one.


Insiders was brilliant this morning. It’s was comedy gold as they went through all the own goals the Libs kicked in the last week of the by election :lol: :lol: couldn’t make some of the shit up they did. Incompetence personified!


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:43 am 
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749a wrote:
To be fair, Antony Green is saying similar things and he's about as respected as they come


Just reading even with the postal swing she should still be close to a thou in front. They’re also re-counting a couple of ballet booths again as preferences are abnormally low to Phelps when taken in context across the rest of the electorate


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:00 pm 
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Phelps's lead is back out to around 1600 votes, by Sunday evening. Can't see Sharma pulling this one out of the bag.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... te-narrows


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:09 pm 
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It’s all Malcolm’s fault for not campaigning :lol:


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:03 pm 
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swc wrote:
It’s all Malcolm’s fault for not campaigning :lol:



That has got to be the political news story of the year. Trust Rupert's men to find ways to blame Turnbull for their own farking stupidity.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:48 pm 
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The Murdoch press are having a massive sook

A sidebar on the front page and no mention until page 10 of the election....

The main story is about combat medics....

A noble story but not the top story on a Monday after a walloping

:lol:


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:52 am 
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swc wrote:
It’s all Malcolm’s fault for not campaigning :lol:


If he did campaign, they would have complained about that as well

The scary thing is watching the looney right suggest that they aren't looney enough and that Wentworth is just a hotbed of leftie pinkos

Phelps was a very safe way to protest, promised to vote confidence motions with the Libs, high profile enough to have good awareness and centre right enough to push the same hot buttons Turnbull was trying to get through


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:06 am 
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And in other obvious news, Kevin Rudd thinks everyone else is useless and dumb

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 50az0.html


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