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I'm going with Roglic, Dumoulin and Yates in that order. I'm pulling for Yates, he will be fine in the mountains but I feel the three TT's will be his problem. He's really improved his TTing this year and they're all hilly, which will help, but Roglic and Dumoulin are both great climbers and TT'ers.

There again it's the Giro and anything could happen

I'd love Yate to win it, I like his aggressive ridding style.

But Roglic has to be the favorite, unless he hit top form too soon.

I would not write Nibali off, he can do some damage in the mountain stages and will look to disrupt this race, which will make for a nice showing.

P in VG wrote:
Didn't realise he'd gone there - Jumbo-Visma have a pretty tidy roster - I imagine their TDF team will be really strong

They should be very strong. The Giro lineup they have is nothing to sniff at either.

They’ve been a bit of a sleeping giant since Rabobank walked away; apparently they held onto all the old infrastructure they had from back then, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that with the big money coming in from big-company sponsors they have a strong lineup to support their genuine gc contenders. They also have some good talent spotting, so plenty of handy youngsters.

Team strength is the only reason I’d consider Roglic a favorite over Dumoulin. I think the big guy is the class in the field, but he’s going to be up against it hoping for Oomen to be able to stick around longer than Carapaz or Tolhoek or other domestiques.

All the big guns out early.

Nibbles with the early lead. Dumoulin disappointing.

Edit: Roglic smashes Nibbles' time by 23sec. Huge blow.

DOB wrote: Team strength is the only reason I’d consider Roglic a favorite over Dumoulin. I think the big guy is the class in the field, but he’s going to be up against it hoping for Oomen to be able to stick around longer than Carapaz or Tolhoek or other domestiques.

Well Jumbo are going to have a jersey to defend now, so that team strength will be tested.

But if Tom is planning to ride his way into form it looks like he has some riding to do.

Was hoping for more from Tom

Can't see beyond Roglic at this point.

Disappointed with Yates comments yesterday, they don’t seem to fit his personality, or my perception of it.

Salanya wrote:Was hoping for more from Tom

Can't see beyond Roglic at this point.

Poisoned chalice to take pink so early. Tom doesn't want any part of it yet

Spyglass wrote:Disappointed with Yates comments yesterday, they don’t seem to fit his personality, or my perception of it.

High on drugs?

Went along to stage 1 of California today. The twins finished 3rd and 4th in the strider bike race, very proud of them. The speed and sheer mass of the peloton coming around the corners on the circuit was a sight to be seen. Sagan got his 2nd win of the season and the ToC continues to be good for him. It’s kickstarted his seasons before.

DOB wrote:Went along to stage 1 of California today. The twins finished 3rd and 4th in the strider bike race, very proud of them. The speed and sheer mass of the peloton coming around the corners on the circuit was a sight to be seen. Sagan got his 2nd win of the season and the ToC continues to be good for him. It’s kickstarted his seasons before.

What always impresses me is to see the peloton at 60km/h in the last km. This is some sight, and quite a scary one at the same time. I always fear a fall.

Johan Bruyneel is a guest on The Move podcast for the duration of the Giro, usually not a big fan of this pod, but Bruyneel offers some interesting tactical insight after each stage.

guy smiley wrote:

DOB wrote:Went along to stage 1 of California today. The twins finished 3rd and 4th in the strider bike race, very proud of them. The speed and sheer mass of the peloton coming around the corners on the circuit was a sight to be seen. Sagan got his 2nd win of the season and the ToC continues to be good for him. It’s kickstarted his seasons before.

Saw a little of the stage on tv here. Sagan has a pic up on IG... showing his 111 tattoo, wearing bib #111 and that was his 111th victory apparently. Mad.

Peloton in full flight on the flat at the closing stage of a race is a force of nature for sure. Eyeballs out as the saying goes.

Sagan is the classiest rider in the modern peloton. I'd love to see him concentrate more on the grand tour GC.
I think if lost some weight, he has the ability to climb well, and to challenge overall GC

Miguel Indurain wrote:

guy smiley wrote:

DOB wrote:Went along to stage 1 of California today. The twins finished 3rd and 4th in the strider bike race, very proud of them. The speed and sheer mass of the peloton coming around the corners on the circuit was a sight to be seen. Sagan got his 2nd win of the season and the ToC continues to be good for him. It’s kickstarted his seasons before.

Saw a little of the stage on tv here. Sagan has a pic up on IG... showing his 111 tattoo, wearing bib #111 and that was his 111th victory apparently. Mad.

Peloton in full flight on the flat at the closing stage of a race is a force of nature for sure. Eyeballs out as the saying goes.

Sagan is the classiest rider in the modern peloton. I'd love to see him concentrate more on the grand tour GC.
I think if lost some weight, he has the ability to climb well, and to challenge overall GC

Its an interesting discussion point but I think Sagan is someone who can get over a climb and can do well on the punchier climb stages but I don't think he could sustain multiple big climbs on an Alps type day in the front pack even with some weight loss. He's not a top echelon Time Triallist and never going to be a mountain top finish guy so I can't see where he would get the time gaps to win, Bonifications (!) aren't going to be enough IMO. He's much better off winning races rather than being an also-ran in GC (see also Allaphilippe).

That finish yesterday looked a bit mental. Really dodgy stuff from Viviani as well, although not sure it was intentional.

On Sagan, whilst I also think he's the best around, I read somewhere that his coach said he'd be down to bone if he lost much more weight and would lose most of his power. Dunno about that really, the chap also looks big. He's also said in interviews he's not too interested in GC.

I’ve also read that Sagan’s coach has said his power goes down when his weight goes down. I think it was 2015 when he got very skinny, but couldn’t produce the watts to get the wins. That was the year of his one big GC win (California, of course) and even then he needed a TT win and lots of sprint bonuses to beat Alaphilippe (who only gained time on one summit finish) by 1 second. There was talk of him trimming down this year for a crack at the Ardennes, but it never came together.

He doesn’t seem to have the same power trade-off as Roglic and Dumoulin who can both still put out the watts as they drop the lbs.

I find him fascinating to watch on tv... he looks huge on the bike. He's a massive unit, sits all over it yet he's not any larger looking in team photos.

He’s got calves like pistons and thighs of a bodybuilder. He can’t do the Froome-emaciated look.

A crash 6km out has caught out so many GC contenders.

Dumoulin looks injured and will lose chunks of time.

Roglic with a very handy lead now.

Cracking stage win for Carapaz though.

Beaver_Shark wrote:A crash 6km out has caught out so many GC contenders.

Dumoulin looks injured and will lose chunks of time.

Roglic with a very handy lead now.

Cracking stage win for Carapaz though.

So many big crashes in the first week of GC is common. I do sometimes wonder if the 3km rule is leading to bigger crashes in the 4-8km range as the GC teams race to get to the 3km point in safety and in the big group just in case - law of unintended consequences and all that.

Just speculating I wonder if a commissaire review following a crash in the closing stages could be 'fairer' than the blanket 3km rule - So like today and yesterday the GC contenders would maybe have been given the group time after crashes at 5 and 6km out...


...or we can say thats racing and keep as is

Roglic didn't try to sprint for bonus seconds. Was he saving energy or was he just spent ?

TheFrog wrote:Roglic didn't try to sprint for bonus seconds. Was he saving energy or was he just spent ?

Probably one eye on the next couple of weeks. Yates and Chavez sprinted for those bonus seconds last year and we all know how that turned out.

TheFrog wrote:Roglic didn't try to sprint for bonus seconds. Was he saving energy or was he just spent ?

Did he work in the break after the crash? Once the split was made it probably made more sense to try and get as many seconds on the road rather than just a gut in a sprint that had no guarantees.

I’d presume that Roglic would’ve had a hard time staying with true sprinters like Ewan and Ulissi.

It’s a real bollix for Dumoulin, but you suspect with the way the TT went that he wasn’t actually in the form needed to beat Roglic. 4 minutes he could find a way to get back against anyone else in this race, but unless Primoz has a crash himself, Big Tom is out.

DOB wrote:

TheFrog wrote:Roglic didn't try to sprint for bonus seconds. Was he saving energy or was he just spent ?

Did he work in the break after the crash? Once the split was made it probably made more sense to try and get as many seconds on the road rather than just a gut in a sprint that had no guarantees.

I’d presume that Roglic would’ve had a hard time staying with true sprinters like Ewan and Ulissi.

It’s a real bollix for Dumoulin, but you suspect with the way the TT went that he wasn’t actually in the form needed to beat Roglic. 4 minutes he could find a way to get back against anyone else in this race, but unless Primoz has a crash himself, Big Tom is out.

Dumoulin should drop out if he has any Grand Tour GC ambitions this year IMO. Flaying himself in an all but inevitable losing battle at the Giro is a fools endeavour with Le tour not that far in the future - It doesn't sit well with me as an amateur rider but pro guys have to look at the bigger picture

He’s got barely any racing in his legs this season (something like 14 days coming into the Giro, if anything he needs the racing. Unless the injuries from the crash are genuinely a concern, I think he should stay to the Stage 9 TT, and have a proper crack at that.

I genuinely think he’s still a very good shot to finish on the podium. But fine, if he’s aiming for the top spot and nothing less, then yes, he could consider dropping out and focus on France. I still think even that would be a mistake.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/ ... sh-cycling

The crashes yesterday were pretty spectacular. Dumoulin has quit. Interesting comments about Yates. Not so pretty the fact four riders are being investigated for abnormal test results

''Earlier, Mikel Landa apologised for calling Simon Yates “a retard” after a crash at the end of stage four. The Movistar rider was asked about one of the incidents and responded: “That f**king Yates, who is a retard and rides like crazy. He threw me into a roundabout.”

Some breakaway today. Looks like Valerio Conti will take the maglia rosa.

Pity about TD, would have been great to see him duke it out with Roglic.

I think we’ll get more gc battles between Dumoulin and Roglic in the next couple of years. They’re basically the same age (Roglic is a year older, but took up cycling later).

In terms of this race, though, I can’t see Nibali or Yates being able to drop him uphill, certainly not to put enough time into him that he won’t recoup in the TTs. Also, Roglic has IMO the strongest squad around him.

I checked, and someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the Jumbo-Visma squad in all its previous guises (Buckler, Superconfex, Rabobank, WordPerfect, Belkin etc) never actually won a Grant Tour. Great classics team, weak on gc.

Denis Menchov won the Giro and the Vuelta with Rabo

So he did. Forget I spoke.

nardol wrote:Denis Menchov won the Giro and the Vuelta with Rabo

were those not taken from him after admitting the juice?

Been a mad week for UAE - two riders implicated in a doping scandal who are forced to withdraw from Giro and ToC, they lose Gaviria from the Giro, and they get two riders into the leaders jerseys in ToC and Giro.

Bullettyme wrote:Been a mad week for UAE - two riders implicated in a doping scandal who are forced to withdraw from Giro and ToC, they lose Gaviria from the Giro, and they get two riders into the leaders jerseys in ToC and Giro.

So much for, cheaters never prosper !

fishfoodie wrote:

Bullettyme wrote:Been a mad week for UAE - two riders implicated in a doping scandal who are forced to withdraw from Giro and ToC, they lose Gaviria from the Giro, and they get two riders into the leaders jerseys in ToC and Giro.

So much for, cheaters never prosper !

Well tbf, the cheaters themselves have been sent home.

And the team have been left defending those jerseys while short-handed. I know the squad in California won’t have as much to do, but the Italy lot have been having a tough time of it (except when sprint trains have been revved up).

fishfoodie wrote:

Bullettyme wrote:Been a mad week for UAE - two riders implicated in a doping scandal who are forced to withdraw from Giro and ToC, they lose Gaviria from the Giro, and they get two riders into the leaders jerseys in ToC and Giro.

So much for, cheaters never prosper !

Not sure what the craic is with the cheating thing - whether it was previously before they joined UAE or what. Pity about Gaviria though, looks like Ackerman has a clear run for the Maglia Ciclamino.

Also, haven't followed the ToC too closely, what happened to Sagan?

Sagan won stage 1 and then there’s just been too many hills even for him in this year’s route.

And just as I said California would be easier for UAE, EF have obliterated the field on the day’s climbs and look to have isolated Pogacar. This was supposed to be a sprint stage, but Cav’s just climbed off.

Roglic has put over a minute on all his main rivals in this ITT.

Yates in particular has had an absolute shocker.

Roglic is nervously watching the top 10 coming in, as he overtakes each of them on gc, thinking "one of these muppets bettr hang onto pink..."


Looks like Conti will oblige, but Roglic might be up to 2nd.

After a boring first 10 days on the Giro, finally the mountains are coming. Will Yates have recovered some legs and can he light a few fireworks?

And can Nibali claw back 2 minutes over the course of the next stages?


On a side note, I really dislike all these sprinters pulling out of the competition just before the mountains. The principle should be that you take part in a Grand Tour or you don't.
I would suggest that any rider abandoning for other reasons that illness or injury should be stripped of its victories and UCI points.

TheFrog wrote:After a boring first 10 days on the Giro, finally the mountains are coming. Will Yates have recovered some legs and can he light a few fireworks?

And can Nibali claw back 2 minutes over the course of the next stages?


On a side note, I really dislike all these sprinters pulling out of the competition just before the mountains. The principle should be that you take part in a Grand Tour or you don't.
I would suggest that any rider abandoning for other reasons that illness or injury should be stripped of its victories and UCI points.

Then they will just feign injury or illness.

Nibali will wait until the last week IMO

Today's stage looks nice. It even has a short "Mur" type of climb 2KM from the end. The category 1 climb earlier on should be the decisive point though and I expect good attacks there. They have to try and claw time back from Roglic.

Irish name on the podium today, well done Eddie Dunbar.

Maglia Rosa moves to Jan Polanc who has 4 minutes on Roglic. Great ride from him today.

Edit: been a very good Giro for UAE whatever else happens.