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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:57 am 
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guy smiley wrote:
:lol:
You can laugh but you’ll certainly appreciate the savings to pay your power bill once you have relocated.

Any idea why the amendment to the OIA is taking so long?


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:03 am 
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Mr Mike wrote:
guy smiley wrote:
:lol:
You can laugh but you’ll certainly appreciate the savings to pay your power bill once you have relocated.

Any idea why the amendment to the OIA is taking so long?


None.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:11 am 
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guy smiley wrote:
Mr Mike wrote:
guy smiley wrote:
:lol:
You can laugh but you’ll certainly appreciate the savings to pay your power bill once you have relocated.

Any idea why the amendment to the OIA is taking so long?


None.
A prudent fear of unintended consequences, one of which is that states goal of making houses more affordable.

https://www.adls.org.nz/for-the-profess ... ment-bill-–-proceeding-at-a-slower-pace/


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:28 am 
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Mr Mike wrote:
guy smiley wrote:
Mr Mike wrote:
guy smiley wrote:
:lol:
You can laugh but you’ll certainly appreciate the savings to pay your power bill once you have relocated.

Any idea why the amendment to the OIA is taking so long?


None.
A prudent fear of unintended consequences, one of which is that states goal of making houses more affordable.

https://www.adls.org.nz/for-the-profess ... ment-bill-–-proceeding-at-a-slower-pace/


Food for thought, those are good alarm bells to ring. I've had a bit of an issue to sort out here that had all my attention. Time to look up a bit, cheers Mike.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:09 am 
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Northcote - Preliminary Count

Electorate No. 34 - 24 of 33 results counted

VOTES COUNTED: 14,437 - 72.7%
LEADING CANDIDATE: BIDOIS, Dan 7,394
2nd CANDIDATE: HALBERT, Shanan 6,368
CURRENT MARGIN: 1,026

https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:10 am 
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No way that was going Red


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:28 am 
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94% counted

Code:
Candidates         Party       Votes
BIDOIS, Dan           NAT      9489
HALBERT, Shanan    LAB      8272


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:32 am 
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Enzedder wrote:
94% counted

Code:
Candidates         Party       Votes
BIDOIS, Dan           NAT      9489
HALBERT, Shanan    LAB      8272

How does that compare to the margin last time?


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:39 am 
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JB1981 wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
94% counted

Code:
Candidates         Party       Votes
BIDOIS, Dan           NAT      9489
HALBERT, Shanan    LAB      8272

How does that compare to the margin last time?
2014 GE National majority 9664
2017 GE National majority 6210
2018 BE National majority 1200 approx.

That’s a majority drop of 87% since 2014 and quite an alarming trend for the Nats.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:22 am 
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Thai guy wrote:
JB1981 wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
94% counted

Code:
Candidates         Party       Votes
BIDOIS, Dan           NAT      9489
HALBERT, Shanan    LAB      8272

How does that compare to the margin last time?
2014 GE National majority 9664
2017 GE National majority 6210
2018 BE National majority 1200 approx.

That’s a majority drop of 87% since 2014 and quite an alarming trend for the Nats.


Stealing this from The Standard..

Quote:
The majority for National over Labour really isn’t of very much relevance in a by-election.
The sensible number to look at is the percentage of the vote that went to National plus ACT as opposed to the percentage that went to Labour plus Greens plus New Zealand First.
At the election, looking at only the votes that went to these 5 parties the Right led by 53.7% to the Left’s 46.3%. At the by election it is currently Right 52.4% and the Left 47.6%.
This is a 1.3% from Right to Left.
In practice I think that there has been no real change. There has been a swing from Right to Left of 1.3% but the Right candidates are new and the Lefts are the same as at the election. They will be better known than the National candidate.
On the other side the Labour candidate has cannibalised the other parties in the coalition. The Green Party, in particular should be getting very worried.



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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:25 am 
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Pointless stats when NZ First didn't stand a candidate though.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:28 am 
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Enzedder wrote:
Pointless stats when NZ First didn't stand a candidate though.

Not entirely pointless. More to demonstrate it’s the % and not the raw number with today’s margin.

That said...how ARE NZ First polling...? Think that would have made a huge difference? Genuine question, not a troll.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:36 am 
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kiweez wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
Pointless stats when NZ First didn't stand a candidate though.

Not entirely pointless. More to demonstrate it’s the % and not the raw number with today’s margin.

That said...how ARE NZ First polling...? Think that would have made a huge difference? Genuine question, not a troll.

Less than 5% I think.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:49 am 
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kiweez wrote:
Thai guy wrote:
JB1981 wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
94% counted

Code:
Candidates         Party       Votes
BIDOIS, Dan           NAT      9489
HALBERT, Shanan    LAB      8272

How does that compare to the margin last time?
2014 GE National majority 9664
2017 GE National majority 6210
2018 BE National majority 1200 approx.

That’s a majority drop of 87% since 2014 and quite an alarming trend for the Nats.


Stealing this from The Standard..

Quote:
The majority for National over Labour really isn’t of very much relevance in a by-election.
The sensible number to look at is the percentage of the vote that went to National plus ACT as opposed to the percentage that went to Labour plus Greens plus New Zealand First.
At the election, looking at only the votes that went to these 5 parties the Right led by 53.7% to the Left’s 46.3%. At the by election it is currently Right 52.4% and the Left 47.6%.
This is a 1.3% from Right to Left.
In practice I think that there has been no real change. There has been a swing from Right to Left of 1.3% but the Right candidates are new and the Lefts are the same as at the election. They will be better known than the National candidate.
On the other side the Labour candidate has cannibalised the other parties in the coalition. The Green Party, in particular should be getting very worried.

That post is from a right wing commenter at The Standard. It was pointed out to that commenter that NZF didn't stand a candidate (Koloni) this time.

Also, how is a majority not relevant in a by-election when literally the majority is all that is relevant as by-elections are first past the post?

The Nats majority from the 2017 election has been reduced from 6200 (with 36K turnout) to 1350 (with 20K turnout). This is a reduction in majority of 60% in real terms.

Massively concerning for National.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:58 am 
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Thai guy wrote:
kiweez wrote:
Thai guy wrote:
JB1981 wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
94% counted

Code:
Candidates         Party       Votes
BIDOIS, Dan           NAT      9489
HALBERT, Shanan    LAB      8272

How does that compare to the margin last time?
2014 GE National majority 9664
2017 GE National majority 6210
2018 BE National majority 1200 approx.

That’s a majority drop of 87% since 2014 and quite an alarming trend for the Nats.


Stealing this from The Standard..

Quote:
The majority for National over Labour really isn’t of very much relevance in a by-election.
The sensible number to look at is the percentage of the vote that went to National plus ACT as opposed to the percentage that went to Labour plus Greens plus New Zealand First.
At the election, looking at only the votes that went to these 5 parties the Right led by 53.7% to the Left’s 46.3%. At the by election it is currently Right 52.4% and the Left 47.6%.
This is a 1.3% from Right to Left.
In practice I think that there has been no real change. There has been a swing from Right to Left of 1.3% but the Right candidates are new and the Lefts are the same as at the election. They will be better known than the National candidate.
On the other side the Labour candidate has cannibalised the other parties in the coalition. The Green Party, in particular should be getting very worried.

That post is from a right wing commenter at The Standard. It was pointed out to that commenter that NZF didn't stand a candidate (Koloni) this time.

Also, how is a majority not relevant in a by-election when literally the majority is all that is relevant as by-elections are first past the post?

The Nats majority from the 2017 election has been reduced from 6200 (with 36K turnout) to 1350 (with 20K turnout). This is a reduction in majority of 60% in real terms.

Massively concerning for National.


Hey....I’m not endorsing a result one way or the other. A counter-argument could be made that with no NZF candidate, and Greens endorsing NZL, the fact that the Jacinda effect STILL could get them over the line could be seen as a massive concern for Labour.

Just devil’s advocate there. I have no real skin in this game.

Edit: ....and as previously mentioned, was just using it to demonstrate the % in play as opposed to the numbers. I endorse no opinion attached to the C&P.


Last edited by kiweez on Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:59 am 
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I'm not reading too much into the result without the fanfare of a full campaign. They held the seat and I doubt anyone will make too much noise about it.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:11 am 
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kiweez wrote:
Thai guy wrote:
That post is from a right wing commenter at The Standard. It was pointed out to that commenter that NZF didn't stand a candidate (Koloni) this time.

Also, how is a majority not relevant in a by-election when literally the majority is all that is relevant as by-elections are first past the post?

The Nats majority from the 2017 election has been reduced from 6200 (with 36K turnout) to 1350 (with 20K turnout). This is a reduction in majority of 60% in real terms.

Massively concerning for National.


Hey....I’m not endorsing a result one way or the other. A counter-argument could be made that with no NZF candidate, and Greens endorsing NZL, the fact that the Jacinda effect STILL could get them over the line could be seen as a massive concern for Labour.

Just devil’s advocate there. I have no real skin in this game.

Edit: ....and as previously mentioned, was just using it to demonstrate the % in play as opposed to the numbers. I endorse no opinion attached to the C&P.
I get that you have to be careful about what you say because of your job but please don't pretend you are neutral. :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:20 am 
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Thai guy wrote:
kiweez wrote:
Thai guy wrote:
That post is from a right wing commenter at The Standard. It was pointed out to that commenter that NZF didn't stand a candidate (Koloni) this time.

Also, how is a majority not relevant in a by-election when literally the majority is all that is relevant as by-elections are first past the post?

The Nats majority from the 2017 election has been reduced from 6200 (with 36K turnout) to 1350 (with 20K turnout). This is a reduction in majority of 60% in real terms.

Massively concerning for National.


Hey....I’m not endorsing a result one way or the other. A counter-argument could be made that with no NZF candidate, and Greens endorsing NZL, the fact that the Jacinda effect STILL could get them over the line could be seen as a massive concern for Labour.

Just devil’s advocate there. I have no real skin in this game.

Edit: ....and as previously mentioned, was just using it to demonstrate the % in play as opposed to the numbers. I endorse no opinion attached to the C&P.
I get that you have to be careful about what you say because of your job but please don't pretend you are neutral. :lol:

You’d be surprised where I put my ticks I’d say ;)


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:41 am 
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Thai guy wrote:
kiweez wrote:
Thai guy wrote:
JB1981 wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
94% counted

Code:
Candidates         Party       Votes
BIDOIS, Dan           NAT      9489
HALBERT, Shanan    LAB      8272

How does that compare to the margin last time?
2014 GE National majority 9664
2017 GE National majority 6210
2018 BE National majority 1200 approx.

That’s a majority drop of 87% since 2014 and quite an alarming trend for the Nats.


Stealing this from The Standard..

Quote:
The majority for National over Labour really isn’t of very much relevance in a by-election.
The sensible number to look at is the percentage of the vote that went to National plus ACT as opposed to the percentage that went to Labour plus Greens plus New Zealand First.
At the election, looking at only the votes that went to these 5 parties the Right led by 53.7% to the Left’s 46.3%. At the by election it is currently Right 52.4% and the Left 47.6%.
This is a 1.3% from Right to Left.
In practice I think that there has been no real change. There has been a swing from Right to Left of 1.3% but the Right candidates are new and the Lefts are the same as at the election. They will be better known than the National candidate.
On the other side the Labour candidate has cannibalised the other parties in the coalition. The Green Party, in particular should be getting very worried.

That post is from a right wing commenter at The Standard. It was pointed out to that commenter that NZF didn't stand a candidate (Koloni) this time.

Also, how is a majority not relevant in a by-election when literally the majority is all that is relevant as by-elections are first past the post?

The Nats majority from the 2017 election has been reduced from 6200 (with 36K turnout) to 1350 (with 20K turnout). This is a reduction in majority of 60% in real terms.

Massively concerning for National.


Do you really believe your own BS? Labour simply cannibalized the left vote by taking votes off the Greens and NZF.

Good for Labour but hardly 'massively concerning' for National.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:25 am 
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Funny to watch Labour get excited to win votes off their own govt partner party's but the Nats percentage of votes is only about 1.3% less than the election.

And that's after the Jassiah made a personal appearance


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:13 am 
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Oh well. We are told to look for trends in polling and election results. The Nats' majority in Northcote in the last 4 years has dropped by 75%. That is the work of Shanan Halbert. If National aren't worried by that then that's fine.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:21 am 
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Thai guy wrote:
Oh well. We are told to look for trends in polling and election results. The Nats' majority in Northcote in the last 4 years has dropped by 75%. That is the work of Shanan Halbert. If National aren't worried by that then that's fine.


Depends if you are looking at % of votes or number of votes

She doesn't take rocket science to see heaps less voters vote in by elections.

Votes

By election 19,900
2017 election 37,311

Northcote % of votes Nats

By election 50.98%
2017 election 52.27%

Hardly gravitational shift


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:27 am 
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And certainly not 75% unless you don't actually think rationally


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:22 pm 
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Enzedder wrote:
No way that was going Red



It would be like Labour losing South Auckland .


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:29 pm 
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Enzedder wrote:
No way that was going Red



It would be like Labour losing South Auckland .


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:50 pm 
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Dark wrote:
And certainly not 75% unless you don't actually think rationally
The Nats’ majority since 2014 has been cut by 3/4 and that is taking into account the lower turnout in the by-election. The actual reduction is 88%.

The Nats’ majority since 2017 has been cut 60% accounting for turnout. These are facts.

By-elections are FPP. Only majorities matter, not percentage of the vote.

The Nats’ majority has dropped dramatically even in the face of gentrification and the economic cleansing of the electorate. They will be very concerned.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:00 pm 
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Thai guy wrote:
Dark wrote:
And certainly not 75% unless you don't actually think rationally
The Nats’ majority since 2014 has been cut by 3/4 and that is taking into acount the lower turnout in the by-election. The actual reduction is 88%.

The Nats’ majority since 2017 has been cut 60% accounting for turnout. These are facts.

By-elections are FPP. Only majorities matter, not percentage of the vote.

The Nats’ majority has dropped dramatically even in the face of gentrification and the economic cleansing of the electorate. They will be very concerned.



No offense but do you actually understand math?

2014

Nats 57.02% of the vote

By election 50.98%

This is not a loss of 3/4


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:06 pm 
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I tell you what if you insist on talking numbers of voters

Explain Labour's drop in the by election


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:25 pm 
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Dark wrote:
I tell you what if you insist on talking numbers of voters

Explain Labour's drop in the by election

Isn’t that an entirely predictable result for a party in power?


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:22 am 
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NZ First has said 'no' to repealing the three strikes law.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/104608068/governments-three-strikes-repeal-killed-by-nz-first


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:23 am 
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Wilderbeast wrote:
jono45 wrote:
eugenius wrote:

In other news the three strikes law is soon gone .

Good job.

why is this good ?
there is currently a sick fudge going before the courts has beaten a person to the edge of their life , been covicted, then raped and murdered , convicted, now potentially done the same again ,wtf is wrong with locking the sick fudge up forever?


It’s good because there is zero evidence it makes any difference.

You can all sleep easier, looks like it is staying.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:27 am 
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JB1981 wrote:


Was surprised Labour even tried to go for it.

It was pretty obvious Winston couldn't go with it and Liabour would end up looking like headless chickens


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:33 am 
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Interesting graph in the article.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:45 am 
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The graph is interesting and recidivist crime has a lot of causes so is a hard problem to solve. The spike in prison population in the last couple of years after a period of relative stability is pretty extreme.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:57 am 
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Wilderbeast wrote:
Interesting graph in the article.

Yes, the new bail laws (passed with broad based support) have been a fair more significant contributor to prison populations and are unlikely to revisited.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:53 am 
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Wilderbeast wrote:
jono45 wrote:
eugenius wrote:

In other news the three strikes law is soon gone .

Good job.



It’s good because there is zero evidence it makes any difference.

Winston doesn't think so :thumbup:


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:03 am 
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Winston is a politican.


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:22 am 
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I see the 3 strikes repeal has been shot down...by NZF, not a great look for the coalition

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/104608068/governments-three-strikes-repeal-killed-by-nz-first


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:32 am 
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Wilderbeast wrote:
Winston is a politican.

Did you vote for one of the coalition parties ? if so hes your politician


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 Post subject: Re: NZ Politics Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:41 am 
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Wilderbeast wrote:
Interesting graph in the article.


I prefer the gormless expression on Little's face. :lol:


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