Planet Rugby Forum

So Lets Talk NFL Football. Since my comments about the NFL imploding in TEN YEARS seem to have caught everyone's attention.

First of all, why comment on the NFL ? Because I pay attention to all of the entertainment industry. I can learn from what happens in the industries I follow and when I comment on something, it invariably generates feedback. A lot of it. All of which I learn from. So expect me to comment on this and much for many years to come.

So why do I think the NFL will implode in 10 years ?

1. I wouldn't want my son playing football, would you ? I'm sure helmet technology will improve over the next 10 years, but why risk it ? There are plenty of sports to play. Plenty of ways to get exercise and if my son decided to do anything outside of sports and never pick up any ball of any kind, I'm fine with that. I can think of 1k things I would prefer him to get excited about doing.

As far as watching, I good with that.

I don't think I'm alone. If we start to see a decline of popularity at the high school and then college level because kids choose other sports, it will hurt the interest in watching the NFL

2. Player Behavior. The NBA learned this lesson. Fans don't like to see players acting the fool. While fans may forgive players over time, advertisers have long memories.

It is hard to ask players to be warriors on the field and perfect citizens off. Across a population of more than 1500 players under the age of 30, you can bet that they will have continuing issues. With the unquenchable thirst the online and media world have for HEADLINE PORN, and the ever growing availability of pictures of those mistakes appearing online, it is not inconceivable that over the next ten years something could impact the perception of the game enough to impact attendance and viewership.

3. Their TV strategy today is perfect. Nothing wrong with expanding their Thursday night broadcasts. It is a great idea.

That said, if they continue this trend of adding games on more nights ( i have been told they are looking at Saturday Nights as well) and this was the point I was making to ESPN yesterday, they risk over-saturation, a decline in interest by current, and non NFL fans feeling imposed upon because of the relative popularity of the NFL.

Some have asked, "if you can supply programming that has such huge demand on more nights , why wouldn't you ? " The answer is simple. No one wants to do the same thing every night. No matter what it is.

Sunday audiences for the NFL are big. Huge. Monday night audiences are smaller than Sunday. And Thursday are smaller than Monday. Sundays get 21.Xmm viewers on NBC/Fox, 18mm on CBS. Monday Nights get 13.7mm viewers and Thursdays get 7.1mm viewers. No question that Thursday night viewership will be much higher on CBS. Which is good for the NFL. But as you can see, there is not the same level of interest in the NFL carrying over from Sunday night to other nights of the week.

Can the NFL add more nights ? Sure they can. Will they draw more viewers than most TV shows can on the nights they add ? Sure they will. But is there a point of diminishing returns ? No question about it.

As I said, Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered (don't know who said this originally).

How many days of NFL football are too many ? I think they get one more night. Probably a Saturday. Simply because Saturday is a waste land on TV right now. So an NFL game on the NFL Network or broadcast TV would probably work relative to other options available to TV Networks or the NFL Network. After that, they go backwards.

After that the backlash starts. Will they take away from High School Football on Fridays ? What would the general consensus be if NFL football dominated the ratings Thursday through Monday with only Tues and Wed as days off ?

What will the law of unintended consequences be when the NFL is on 5 days a week. Will we see a "Who Wants to be A Millionaire " affect ?

Only time will tell. But while over playing their TV hand is a risk for the NFL, they are smart and may not even take that direction. My comments to ESPN were based on speculation in the event they do. We will see.

4. Fantasy Football. TV saturation is not the NFL's biggest risk. What is their biggest risk ? Fantasy Football. Yep Fantasy Football.

When I broached the topic of the NFL being too aggressive and possibly devolving from "piggy territory" to "Hoggy Territory", the recurring response was that Fantasy Football is the difference. That Fantasy Football drives interest in the NFL.

Is that true ? What does everyone out there think ?

How much is the NFL worth in aggregate ? At least an average of $1 billion dollars per team ? And with the whole probably being worth more than the sum of the parts, the NFL if it was a public entity with all the teams in a single holding company, traded on the stock market, would be worth what ? Half of Facebook ? 3X+ Twitter or about $100 billion dollars ?

Could a $100 billion dollar venture really be dependent on how many people sign up for leagues to get points for plays and bragging rights with their friends ? If the answer is yes, that is a problem for the NFL and to a lesser extent all pro sports.

Does anyone believe that in 10 years Facebook will be the dominant social network ? It might be. What about Twitter ? Will it be a player ? Will Google dominate ? How will they dominate ?

We all know from history that very few tech based businesses live on as they currently are forever. And 10 years is forever. And Fantasy Football at its base is a tech based form of entertainment.

I'm not saying there haven't been quite a few online entertainment franchises that have been able to thrive over 10 plus years. There are more than a few.

What I do know is that every kid and their brother is looking for ways to create games or new forms of entertainment that pull people's attention away from fantasy football.

Do you bet on the NFL and Fantasy Football or do you bet on the entrepreneurial field ?

Could there possibly be a new technology or new form of entertainment that impacts the popularity of fantasy sports and has a big impact on not just the NFL, but all pro sports at some point in the next 10 years ?

I bet yes.

5. The risk of TV changing. TV is changing. Not near as much as people think. TV subscriptions started climbing again this past quarter as Cable and Satellite distributors greatly improved their user interfaces , VOD, internet streaming and discovery. But could it change ? Yes it could. Could we see more streaming and less traditional delivery ? Maybe. Will that have an impact on the NFL which is one of the few programs that has so many viewers of a live program that they could be seriously and negatively impacted if streaming became the expectation for sports and tv programming ? Yes. If the NFL needed to stream its games over the public internet in a net neutrality world, thats a problem for the NFL.

And if mobile consumption of the internet became dominant it could be even a bigger problem. Not just because of the technical nature of streaming mobile, but because i think there is a smaller audience of people who would want to watch the NFL on a mobile device.

The NFL, because of its audience sizes, more than any other pro sport, needs traditional tv to stay strong.

Will it. My guess is yes. But there are many who disagree with me.

So the conclusion ?

It's the same thing I tell my businesses and would tell every business. You shouldn't try to get every last second of a person's attention or every last penny that you can squeeze from them.

There is a big difference between optimizing the relationship you have with your customers and maximizing short term revenue. Building customers for life is about building relationships and anticipating customer wants and needs.

Customers/Fans/Advertisers know when they are being pushed. They know when they are being squeezed. It always ends up costing the business in the end.

And technology effects every business. You have to anticipate changes and all the possible points of change they will create in your business. I have talked about a few things the NFL will have to address over the next 10 years. If they don't get piggy, they should be ok. If not, they will implode.

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered

Hawk97 wrote:Football has too much history.

"The Bills reached an agreement with the state of New York on a 10-year lease deal for Ralph Wilson Stadium. The new lease, first reported by The Buffalo News, was announced at a press conference Friday morning.

The agreement includes a prohibitive relocation penalty. The Bills would have to pay $400 million if they leave during the first seven years of the lease. The penalty drops to $29 million for the remainder of the lease. That will quiet any talks about the franchise leaving until at least 2020."

Bowens wrote:NFL to flag 'dunks' over the goal posts

Sorta meh on this. I like when a little bit of decorum is maintained by players, but that ship sailed a long time ago in the NFL. And they certainly don't mind putting pantomime routines in their promos, notably hawking the antics of Ray Lewis and Terrell Owens in recent years. So I don't see what harm a goal post dunk does. If anything it's less goading than some of the celebrations they tolerate.

Flyin Ryan wrote:The group in Toronto is Rogers, media company in Canada that own a sports channel there, the Skydome, and the Blue Jays, who have so far lost a fortune on the Bills games they play at the Skydome and ticket sales have been nothing great. Per a Rogers outlet in Canada prior to Wilson's death (who are not friendly to the CFL, CFL is broadcast by their competitor), the NFL have told people interested in buying a team to move it to Toronto that the NFL wants the Toronto Argonauts "taken care of" prior to the city getting an NFL team. The Argonauts play at Rogers-owned Skydome where they are very much treated like second-class citizens due to having nowhere else to go at the moment in the city. First, there's plenty of cities that want an NFL team and I think a lot of them are more appealing than Toronto. Second, the NFL doesn't want to be seen as putting a legitimate longstanding pro football team out of business.

So MLSE, owners of the Maple Leafs, Raptors, Toronto FC (and now co-owned by Rogers and Rogers' competitor Bell that broadcasts the CFL), has looked into making Toronto FC's field adaptable for CFL use. This harms Rogers who loses Argonauts' rent for the Skydome. If MLSE take care of the Argonauts, they can then bid to buy the Bills.

So what you could have is MLSE and Rogers (even though Rogers part owns MLSE) aiming to buy the team to move them to Toronto.

Wilson's family, who are not from upstate New York, they are from Michigan, are reported to be selling to the highest bidder. I just think a prospective Los Angeles group, say AEG, would put down more money than MLSE.

However, it's going to be awhile. From 2012:

"The Bills reached an agreement with the state of New York on a 10-year lease deal for Ralph Wilson Stadium. The new lease, first reported by The Buffalo News, was announced at a press conference Friday morning.

The agreement includes a prohibitive relocation penalty. The Bills would have to pay $400 million if they leave during the first seven years of the lease. The penalty drops to $29 million for the remainder of the lease. That will quiet any talks about the franchise leaving until at least 2020."

Hawk97 wrote:Football has too much history, its the culture / way of life. They'd have to really smite the audiences somehow to lose interest.

(If Cam Newton continues playing, that might do it! )

Flyin Ryan wrote:

Bowens wrote:NFL to flag 'dunks' over the goal posts

Sorta meh on this. I like when a little bit of decorum is maintained by players, but that ship sailed a long time ago in the NFL. And they certainly don't mind putting pantomime routines in their promos, notably hawking the antics of Ray Lewis and Terrell Owens in recent years. So I don't see what harm a goal post dunk does. If anything it's less goading than some of the celebrations they tolerate.

don't get the point either

Dumbledore wrote:

Hawk97 wrote:Football has too much history, its the culture / way of life. They'd have to really smite the audiences somehow to lose interest.

(If Cam Newton continues playing, that might do it! )

What have you got against Cam?

WelshmanBKK wrote:Eagles cut DeSean Jackson......

Word is they believe he has involvement with the Crips is too deep for comfort.

goeagles wrote:@DConnollyNFL: BREAKING PER SOURCE: Barring a serious collapse, DeSean Jackson will be joining the #Raiders no word on length and terms #NFLFreeAgency

Marshall Banana wrote:

goeagles wrote:@DConnollyNFL: BREAKING PER SOURCE: Barring a serious collapse, DeSean Jackson will be joining the #Raiders no word on length and terms #NFLFreeAgency

This would be f**king awesome!

After I threw the toys out of the pram early, Reggie has made me eat some crow. I'm really liking what he's done/doing in free agency.

NFL star Colin Kaepernick is being investigated over a suspicious incident, several outlets reported.

No charges have been filed yet against the 49ers quarterback. But TMZ, which originally broke the story, reports that the case has been referred to the Special Victim's Office, which handles sex crimes.

According to the outlet, the woman at the center of the incident alleges that Kaepernick undressed her at the home of Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Ricardo Lockette. The woman says that she later woke up in a hospital bed without remembering much of the evening subsequent to her physical encounter with Kaepernick.

The Miami Police Department confirmed to the Mercury News that he's being investigated over an incident, but did not offer details.

SFGate obtained a copy of the police report, which includes details of the alleged incident. It does not specify the exact crime, describing it as only a "suspicious incident."

According to the report, the alleged incident took place at the Viceroy Hotel in Miami on April 1st. The report also named 49ers wide receiver Quinton Patton and Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Ricardo Lockette as part of the investigation.

The 49ers told the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport that they are looking into the allegations. The team told NBC Sports they are "aware of the recent media report."

This is a developing story....

San Francisco 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith was charged with a false report of a bomb threat at the Los Angeles International Airport on Sunday.

A Los Angeles World Airport police spokesperson released the following statement to NFL Media:

"At approximately 1400 hrs, a 24 year-old Aldon Jacarus Ramon Smith, a resident of San Jose, California, was going through Terminal 1 screening where he made a comment indicating that he was in possession of a bomb. Los Angeles Airport Police made contact with him in the gate area where he became uncooperative. After conducting their investigation, LA Airport Police took suspect into custody and transported him to LAPD-Pacific division where he was booked for California Penal Code 148.1(a) - False report of a bomb threat."

The LAPD confirmed to NFL Media that Smith posted bail and was subsequently released Sunday night.

49ers general manager Trent Baalke released the following statement:

"We are disappointed to learn of the incident today involving Aldon Smith. As this is a pending legal matter and we are still gathering the pertinent facts, we will have no further comment."

Smith has been in the news for multiple off-field issues. He pleaded not guilty in November to three felony counts of illegal possession of an assault weapon. He also missed five games in 2013 while in an alcohol treatment center. The 49ers must decide if they want to pick up the fifth-year option in his rookie contract by May 3.

Demilich wrote:And Chris Culliver up for hit-and-run and possession of knuckle-dusters charges... the 49ers seem determined to self-destruct this off-season.

TheBouncer wrote:They'll be fine. With Harbaugh and that roster back at camp they'll challenge for the conference at least until the big paydays are due.

Smith is beyond stupid, be some shame if he went off the rails; one of the league's best players.

Ireland's Call wrote:Donald Trump may be buying the Bills Trump in the NFL

Snooze wrote:

Ireland's Call wrote:Donald Trump may be buying the Bills Trump in the NFL

Laugh all you want, there will still not be a worse owner in the league than Jones. Trump may be a stupid attention whore, but pales in both of those categories to Jones. The Bills have been running underfunded for a while now. As long as Trump doesn't want to move them I'm sure Goody boy will be OK with it.

Brian9848 wrote:

Snooze wrote:

Ireland's Call wrote:Donald Trump may be buying the Bills Trump in the NFL

Laugh all you want, there will still not be a worse owner in the league than Jones. Trump may be a stupid attention whore, but pales in both of those categories to Jones. The Bills have been running underfunded for a while now. As long as Trump doesn't want to move them I'm sure Goody boy will be OK with it.

Trump's casino holdings are an obstacle. He'd have to sell them first before he'd be considered (and not contingent upon him being approved) and he'd have to realise a loss. Trump also brought a massive antitrust suit against the NFL during the final days of the USFL. Tump of course states that "I think the NFL owners respected me for it because I took a dead league and made it hot", be he isn't respected.

As part of a $130 million renovation of their home Stadium, the Bills in December 2012 agreed with NY State and local officials to remain at the venue for 10 years. They’d have to pay a $400 million exit fee if they break the lease, with an exception in the seventh year, when it drops to a $29 million penalty.

You can expect that whoever buys the Bills will want to move it to a larger market. Bon Jovi is leading a Toronto based bid.

Florida State won its third national championship in Pasadena, Calif., in January, but the appearance in the final BCS title game also cost the university nearly a half-million dollars.

Florida State reported expenses of $2,820,613 -- nearly half of which came from transportation costs -- which exceeded the revenue generated from its BCS appearance by a total of $481,213.

The loss does not come as a surprise for FSU. Athletics director Stan Wilcox said in February that playing on the West coast increased travel expenses and hindered ticket sales, making it nearly impossible to turn a profit on the endeavor. Wilcox said that the losses were more than covered by the share of BCS revenue paid out by the conference along with projected increased future revenue that comes from winning a national title.

"We're not losing money in the long run, because as a conference, we're making a lot more money and those dollars are filtered down to the institutions," Wilcox said. "The issue has to do with the amount of expense allotted to go participate and what your expenses end up being."

According to Florida State's balance sheet, the athletics department spent $1,372,805 to transport 699 people to Pasadena for the game, including 237 members of the team and staff and 416 band members.

The school also absorbed a $710,385 loss on its ticket allotment. According to records, the school committed to 22,740 tickets ranging in cost between $215 and $385, and 2,125 were absorbed by the institution.

Another $364,005 was spent on meals and lodging, $22,029 on entertainment and $23,668 on promotion.

The ACC provided Florida State with $2,150,000 in expense allocation for the national championship game, which accounted for 92 percent of the school's title game revenues.

FSU also lost another $213,812 on its appearance in the ACC championship game, bringing its total postseason price tag to nearly $700,000.

Villanueva played both football and basketball for two years at SHAPE American High School in Belgium, where his father, Ignacio, worked for NATO. Born on September 22, 1988 in Meridian, Miss., Villanueva spent the majority of his early years growing up in Spain, where he swam competitively and played rugby. He took up football for the first time after his family moved to Belgium.