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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:08 pm 
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Video simulations demonstrate widespread destruction across the South Island if New Zealand's most dangerous fault line ruptures, and there's evidence the country is due for another big one.

Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8) released a series of videos on Wednesday, warning there's compelling geological evidence to show it produces a significant earthquake of magnitude eight or greater every 300 years on average.

The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/103970504/videos-show-devastating-impact-across-south-island-if-alpine-fault-ruptures?rm=m

Fascinating and mildly terrifying.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:19 pm 
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And that's why I don't live on the South Island. :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:21 pm 
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P.S. It's probably worth mentioning as well that force propagation through the earth's crust is not that well understood (i.e. what the video seems to suggest is if there's an earthquake at point X, it will effect point Y a certain manner), and if you were being unkind, you could suggest that Dr Caroline Orchiston is fishing for grants/funding using this alarmist video.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:41 pm 
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The big difficulty is that earthquakes originate beneath the ground, often many miles down, and data gathering for modelling depends on remote observation techniques and measuring pretty much at the surface. Even measuring the prevailing stress in the crust is challenging, as it requires drilling several miles into the ground.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:45 pm 
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The only positive for Christchurch is the building’s that could/would have fallen down have already done so and those that have been rebuilt are a LOT stronger.

Places like Wellington though x(


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:37 pm 
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Yep. Wellington's the scary one. You come in on the ferry and see the escarpments where the earth's just decided to throw the land up by a dozen meters or so in one hit and you don't want to be in Welly when that happens again.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:47 pm 
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JPNZ wrote:
The only positive for Christchurch is the building’s that could/would have fallen down have already done so and those that have been rebuilt are a LOT stronger.

Places like Wellington though x(


I read a while back that Christchurch should come through reasonably well for exactly that reason. And that a M8 quake in the mountains won't feel any worse than what Christchurch has already experienced due to the distance.

I hope they're right.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:59 pm 
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Fat Old Git wrote:
JPNZ wrote:
The only positive for Christchurch is the building’s that could/would have fallen down have already done so and those that have been rebuilt are a LOT stronger.

Places like Wellington though x(


I read a while back that Christchurch should come through reasonably well for exactly that reason. And that a M8 quake in the mountains won't feel any worse than what Christchurch has already experienced due to the distance.

I hope they're right.



:x :x :x


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:00 am 
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A good excuse to build a decent stadium worth of a multi comp winning side perhaps?


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:13 am 
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Ted. wrote:
Fat Old Git wrote:
JPNZ wrote:
The only positive for Christchurch is the building’s that could/would have fallen down have already done so and those that have been rebuilt are a LOT stronger.

Places like Wellington though x(


I read a while back that Christchurch should come through reasonably well for exactly that reason. And that a M8 quake in the mountains won't feel any worse than what Christchurch has already experienced due to the distance.

I hope they're right.



:x :x :x


:lol:

Actually, Wellington is a huge concern. I know they're starting to address quake strengthening etc, but it seems to be a very slow process. It's expensive to do, but a lot less expensive than having to bury lots of people and rebuild the whole city.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:19 am 
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Wellington seems very slow with more buildings being identified as problems - the Library a recent one. Walking down Cuba Mall with its old facades reminds me of Cashel Mall but nothing seems to have changed there in the last couple of years.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:36 am 
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There's lots or seismic upgrade work going on in Welly. You can't get an engineer for love nor money. Mind you, there's also a shortage of skilled workers I'd trust with this type of work. Still, there are plenty of building owners dragging their feet, so expect the odd prosecution in the not too distant future set an example.

There's been several precautionary closures, too.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:47 am 
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Thanks Ted. Glad to hear there is more going on than we generally get told about.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:07 am 
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Dreading this one as I have family in Wellington who I am sure would be affected as well.

My daughter is at Victoria Uni and while she has great views from her office etc, I dread what will happen there when that M8+ quake comes. The only good part is that there is a 2/3rd chance she won't be at work I suppose


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:01 am 
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Enzedder wrote:
Dreading this one as I have family in Wellington who I am sure would be affected as well.

My daughter is at Victoria Uni and while she has great views from her office etc, I dread what will happen there when that M8+ quake comes. The only good part is that there is a 2/3rd chance she won't be at work I suppose


Better off on the hill than the flat.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:09 am 
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Ted. wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
Dreading this one as I have family in Wellington who I am sure would be affected as well.

My daughter is at Victoria Uni and while she has great views from her office etc, I dread what will happen there when that M8+ quake comes. The only good part is that there is a 2/3rd chance she won't be at work I suppose


Better off on the hill than the flat.


Indeed


The "big" quake created the suburb of Miramar by ripping it up out of the water. Another one could presumably make it go away again.

Hence me living up in the hills.

And as illogical and unlikely and stupid as it sounds it was actually a reason.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:27 am 
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#RIPNZ , why hasn't Peter Jackson made a movie on this yet?


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:54 am 
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Will that happen before the San Andreas fault goes?


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:10 am 
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Petros wrote:
Will that happen before the San Andreas fault goes?

The Alpine fault has an 8 or higher quake every 300 years on average. The last one was 302 years ago.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:14 am 
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North-west Americans shouldn’t be worrying about the San Andreas fault...

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015 ... ly-big-one


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:17 am 
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Petros wrote:
Will that happen before the San Andreas fault goes?



Think our one I am sitting about 800 meters away from is currently more active, but crust sliding pressures move and grip, then build up pressure and release (quakes) and then relax and shit.

But I don't know enough about the current situation with the San Andreas.

Except I havent heard of a biggy there for a while. Which could be slightly worrying in a way.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:22 am 
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Should have said.

Think personally you would rather have small 3-4 scale quakes regularly as the plates move around than biggies, than them building up and jamming and 1,000s of equivalent nuclear bomb force hitting you at once in an 8 or 9 quake


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:34 am 
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Dark wrote:
Ted. wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
Dreading this one as I have family in Wellington who I am sure would be affected as well.

My daughter is at Victoria Uni and while she has great views from her office etc, I dread what will happen there when that M8+ quake comes. The only good part is that there is a 2/3rd chance she won't be at work I suppose


Better off on the hill than the flat.


Indeed


The "big" quake created the suburb of Miramar by ripping it up out of the water. Another one could presumably make it go away again.

Hence me living up in the hills.

And as illogical and unlikely and stupid as it sounds it was actually a reason.

Treat yourself to one of those new fangled electric planes.
Or a boat car.


Last edited by lorcanoworms on Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:34 am 
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Dark wrote:
Ted. wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
Dreading this one as I have family in Wellington who I am sure would be affected as well.

My daughter is at Victoria Uni and while she has great views from her office etc, I dread what will happen there when that M8+ quake comes. The only good part is that there is a 2/3rd chance she won't be at work I suppose


Better off on the hill than the flat.


Indeed


The "big" quake created the suburb of Miramar by ripping it up out of the water. Another one could presumably make it go away again.

Hence me living up in the hills.

And as illogical and unlikely and stupid as it sounds it was actually a reason.


Ditto


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:23 am 
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How would the big central South Island dams fare if it goes? Imagine if Pukaki/Ohau goes, followed by Benmore, then Aviemore, then Waitaki, would be a horrific flood of epic proportions, something like Noah's flood.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:01 am 
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BlueThunder wrote:
How would the big central South Island dams fare if it goes? Imagine if Pukaki/Ohau goes, followed by Benmore, then Aviemore, then Waitaki, would be a horrific flood of epic proportions, something like Noah's flood.


Pukaki and Ohau aren’t large dam held lakes. The big one is Benmore and there’s a lot of water behind that. If it went it would destroy the Waitaki Valley including the other two dams downstream.

There’s no way of knowing where AF8 might strike. The topography of the whole region means that any decent shifting of ground will render large slices of the island isolated, part of the planning advice is that victims prepare themselves for a long wait for help.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:00 am 
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I’ve done a 7.1 and a 7.8 .... and was in chch for the first quake ... Beyoncé tells me I’m a survivor ..


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:11 am 
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guy smiley wrote:
BlueThunder wrote:
How would the big central South Island dams fare if it goes? Imagine if Pukaki/Ohau goes, followed by Benmore, then Aviemore, then Waitaki, would be a horrific flood of epic proportions, something like Noah's flood.


Pukaki and Ohau aren’t large dam held lakes. The big one is Benmore and there’s a lot of water behind that. If it went it would destroy the Waitaki Valley including the other two dams downstream.

There’s no way of knowing where AF8 might strike. The topography of the whole region means that any decent shifting of ground will render large slices of the island isolated, part of the planning advice is that victims prepare themselves for a long wait for help.


Would take a fair bit to take out Benmore tbf

If there was something that massive the majority of people would be brown bread any way


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:00 pm 
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Jeff the Bear wrote:
And that's why I don't live on the South Island. :thumbup:


In. In the South Island you complete wanker. It's not a fucking bicycle.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:42 pm 
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koroke hangareka wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:
And that's why I don't live on the South Island. :thumbup:


In. In the South Island you complete wanker. It's not a fucking bicycle.

Are you cave dwellers?


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:17 pm 
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I went to the AF8 presentation to the insurance community back in December. Genuinely scary stuff. They showed three models of energy and ground shaking and none looked pretty for CHCH. Also, when this quake happens it will isolate large areas of the West Coast for a significant amount of time.

https://youtu.be/uGWbjYy3to0


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:07 pm 
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Enzedder wrote:
Dreading this one as I have family in Wellington who I am sure would be affected as well.

My daughter is at Victoria Uni and while she has great views from her office etc, I dread what will happen there when that M8+ quake comes. The only good part is that there is a 2/3rd chance she won't be at work I suppose


What building/department is your daughter in? One good thing about the uni is that given their buildings are effectively a public space, they've been really proactive with making sure their buildings are strengthened as much as possible. They've been doing additional strengthening on their library building which is already on base isolators. I'd much rather be up at Kelburn than down in the city. At least the Kelburn buildings are on proper rock.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:13 pm 
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Ramirez Sanchez wrote:
I went to the AF8 presentation to the insurance community back in December. Genuinely scary stuff. They showed three models of energy and ground shaking and none looked pretty for CHCH. Also, when this quake happens it will isolate large areas of the West Coast for a significant amount of time.

https://youtu.be/uGWbjYy3to0

I've got a daughter shifted to Karamea. How much more isolated can they get?


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:25 am 
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Stay up North you bastard!!!

Quote:
No tsunami threat to NZ after magnitude 7 earthquake in Kermadecs
Anna Loren and Brittany Keogh
12:42, Jun 16 2019

There is no tsunami threat to New Zealand after a magnitude 7 earthquake struck in the Kermadec Islands region in the Pacific Ocean, Civil Defence says.

The organisation issued a tsunami warning at 11.37am Sunday, following the quake just after 11am.

However, an all clear was issued eight minutes later.


MCDEM

@NZcivildefence
There is no tsunami threat to New Zealand following the M7.0 Kermadec Islands region earthquake. Based on current information, the initial assessment is that the earthquake is unlikely to have caused a tsunami that will pose a threat to NZ. http://www.civildefence.govt.nz

172
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"Based on current information, the initial assessment is that the earthquake is unlikely to have caused a tsunami that will affect New Zealand," it said.

A Civil Defence spokesman said strong currents were possible, but "we're not expecting anything that means people need to stay away from beaches or off boats".

The emergency mobile alert system was not used to alert people to the original tsunami warning as "the threshold for using that is very high", he said.

That original warning was for strong and hazardous currents and unpredictable surges which could threaten beaches, harbours and estuaries.

However, flooding of land areas, near the shore, had not been expected.

"A land inundation threat would always result in an emergency mobile alert being issued," the spokesman said.

Some people received text alerts from their local Civil Defence groups, such as Bay of Plenty, he said.

"They have their own text alert systems ... not all Civil Defence groups have the same local information systems."

He said the reason for the quick retraction of the tsunami warning was information gathered from tidal gauges at Raoul Island, the largest of the Kermadec Islands.

"We were able to pick up that there were no significant tsunami waves. We can't wait for that before issuing a tsunami warning because the Kermadecs are so close to New Zealand, but when we got that information it was very good news."

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, based in Hawaii, said a tsunami threat existed for parts of the Pacific located closer to the earthquake.

According to Civil Defence, the quake was 10km deep. It was originally reported as magnitude 7.4, but later downgraded to 7.

The Kermadec Islands are about 800-1000km northeast of the North Island. They can only be accessed with a permit from Customs and the Department of Conservation (DOC).

They are uninhabited apart from Raoul Island Station, where there is a meteorological station and a hostel for DOC workers and volunteers.

DOC said all seven of its staff based on the island had been accounted for and were safe.

"No other contractors or visitors were on the island when the quake struck."

A spokeswoman said staff would look into whether there had been any damage to the island on Sunday.

Earthquakes have frequently struck the Kermadecs, including a 7.4 magnitude quake in 2006 and a 7.6 in 2007.

In 2011, two quakes, measuring 7.6 and 7.4, struck three months apart.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:33 am 
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message #2527204 wrote:
koroke hangareka wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:
And that's why I don't live on the South Island. :thumbup:


In. In the South Island you complete wanker. It's not a fucking bicycle.

Are you cave dwellers?


Yes. You live 'on land', not 'in land', a bit like 'at sea', old boy. :smug:


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:03 am 
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Short Man Syndrome wrote:
North-west Americans shouldn’t be worrying about the San Andreas fault...

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015 ... ly-big-one



Great and sobering read.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:16 am 
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LandOTurk wrote:
message #2527204 wrote:
koroke hangareka wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:
And that's why I don't live on the South Island. :thumbup:


In. In the South Island you complete wanker. It's not a fucking bicycle.

Are you cave dwellers?


Yes. You live 'on land', not 'in land', a bit like 'at sea', old boy. :smug:


"On" Great Britain?


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:05 am 
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koroke hangareka wrote:
LandOTurk wrote:
message #2527204 wrote:
koroke hangareka wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:
And that's why I don't live on the South Island. :thumbup:


In. In the South Island you complete wanker. It's not a fucking bicycle.

Are you cave dwellers?


Yes. You live 'on land', not 'in land', a bit like 'at sea', old boy. :smug:


"On" Great Britain?


Yes when you are referring to the island as opposed to the country.

You don't live on New Zealand do you?


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:15 am 
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Well, New Zealand isn't an island, but both Great Britain and the South Island are. And they aren't just descriptive terms (you can say you live on an island, or on the mainland for that matter) but the actual names of places where people live. Generally you'd say you live in a place, not on it, and I've never heard a New Zealander say, "on the South Island". I see it in the Guardian a lot though, and it's kind of irritating.

Plus of course as New Zealanders we have a reputation for preciousness to uphold...


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:50 am 
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Adrianmole wrote:
Short Man Syndrome wrote:
North-west Americans shouldn’t be worrying about the San Andreas fault...

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015 ... ly-big-one



Great and sobering read.


Yep, really great.


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