Planet Rugby Forum

Santa wrote:Another embarrassingly positive forecast

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... -upgraded/

When oh when will Brexit actually turn out bad!?!

La soule wrote:

Gospel wrote:

derriz wrote:And I'm not avoiding any problem because I don't have a problem with Germans holding positions - in this case, senior civil servant positions - in EU institutions. This is only a "problem" in the eyes of nationalistic bigotted brexiteers. Only someone who's reading habits hasn't advanced beyond Victor comics would pounce on this meme with glee.

You should put the rhetoric away. Bimbo is neither a nationalist, bigotted or a brexiteer. He's just a cunt like the rest of us.

As an aside I was reading a piece in a leading German publication a while back and they were discussing one of the issues with Brexit is that with the UK leaving it means more power and influence for Germany which is already viewed with suspicion and negativity on the continent. It wasn't a position they welcomed.

That's the only reason we tolerated your lot in the club all those years!

Gospel wrote:

La soule wrote:

Gospel wrote:

derriz wrote:And I'm not avoiding any problem because I don't have a problem with Germans holding positions - in this case, senior civil servant positions - in EU institutions. This is only a "problem" in the eyes of nationalistic bigotted brexiteers. Only someone who's reading habits hasn't advanced beyond Victor comics would pounce on this meme with glee.

You should put the rhetoric away. Bimbo is neither a nationalist, bigotted or a brexiteer. He's just a cunt like the rest of us.

As an aside I was reading a piece in a leading German publication a while back and they were discussing one of the issues with Brexit is that with the UK leaving it means more power and influence for Germany which is already viewed with suspicion and negativity on the continent. It wasn't a position they welcomed.

That's the only reason we tolerated your lot in the club all those years!

Well that and our money. Now we get to watch you rule the world from the cheap seats.

La soule wrote:You guys are going to do a looot of watching in the near future indeed, no argument from me on this one.

Gospel wrote:

La soule wrote:You guys are going to do a looot of watching in the near future indeed, no argument from me on this one.

Just ordered the popcorn.

La soule wrote:

Gospel wrote:

La soule wrote:You guys are going to do a looot of watching in the near future indeed, no argument from me on this one.

Just ordered the popcorn.

You still could affords it?

Brexit la-la land just gets madder and madder
Chris Johns: Detail-hating Brexiteers still don’t see the Border’s Bino potential
about 19 hours ago
Chris Johns
13


The British economy slowed down in the final quarter of last year, in stark contrast to that of just about every other country in the world, where growth accelerated.

Weak economic growth during a global boom should be a problem, but in Brexit la-la land it is something to be celebrated. All it means is that the forecasts of a Brexit-induced recession were wrong. Subtle arguments about growth being lower than it would otherwise have been are brushed aside as just experts waffling on as usual.

A group called Economists for Free Trade published a report this week criticising Whitehall estimates of Brexit’s negative economic impact on the UK. The Free Traders published some very different forecasts, all positive. Experts were quick to condemn the exercise in terms of both the tools it deployed and the assumptions it used.

In response one of the report’s authors gave the game away, I suspect unwittingly: “The key point here is not to debate the exact number,” Julian Jessop wrote. It is to show that alternative modelling produces very different results.” To put this valid point in a different way: “If you put the contents of your kitchen waste bin in a food processor, don’t be surprised if the result looks nothing like a souffle.”

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, is a favourite target of the Brexiteers. The UK’s central bank is regularly lampooned by Tory extremists for getting its forecasts wrong. As it happens, Carney’s forecasting record has stood up quite well. Again, this would involve a subtle analysis, taking into account that all those original negative forecasts were made without assuming, after the surprise referendum result, that interest rates would be cut, quantitative easing stepped up and government spending boosted. None of that counts, of course. All we need to know is that the forecasts were too gloomy and just wrong.


Carney is not insensitive to the criticisms and tries to be even-handed. He argues that Brexit, if done in the best possible way, need not be a disaster. Brexiteers suspect, probably correctly, that that is just a plea for Bino, or Brexit in name only, where the UK stays in the EU customs union and probably the single market as well. But Carney has also come out swinging, pointing out that the bank forecast that a vote to leave the European Union would lead to lower growth, weaker sterling and squeezed incomes. That all of this came to pass seems to be regarded as fake news by the Tory ultras.

Another feature of that postreferendum economy is a much weaker housing market. Property is not yet in freefall, so not too many headlines are being generated about collapsing prices. Again, it’s subtle and, therefore, of no interest to those, such as Boris Johnson, the British foreign secretary, with no interest in details.

Prime residential real estate in central London is where most of the problems lie: activity is very weak and prices are falling. If that continues it will spread to the rest of London and the country at large. Some London landlords are offering deals to prospective tenants: a Brexit discount if they sign a lease that goes at least six months beyond March 2019.

Theresa May again this week put Conservative unity and keeping her own job ahead of UK interests and came up with a plan that everyone knows won’t work
Bino is Jacob Rees-Mogg’s greatest fear. But cake-and-eat-it remains the central objective of Theresa May, who again this week put Conservative Party unity and keeping her own job ahead of the interests of the country and came up with a plan that everyone knows won’t work.

With only a year to go no time is left for the necessary negotiations, so we now have an admission – actually, a British request to Brussels – that the transition period will have to take as long as it has to and not necessarily be limited to the previously mooted two years.

The British seem to want to get through the next 12 months making all sorts of aspirational noises, get Brexit done and then begin the messy business of detailed negotiations – which can be successful only if there is compromise.

If May compromises ahead of Brexit it will be fatal for her premiership and potentially usher in a Labour government. Jeremy Corbyn has so far played a Brexit blinder and could well be limbering up to promise continued membership of the (or perhaps a) customs union.

The British government is betting that once the United Kingdom has actually left the bloc it will all get a lot easier and that all sides of the increasingly bitter debate will then be more willing to accept compromise. Or perhaps May wants to deliver Brexit and then leave the compromising to someone else.

Some things cannot involve compromise. The Border is one of them: there either is a Border or there isn’t. Being out of the customs union necessitates a Border. It is as simple as that. It will be the ultimate irony if the Irish Border means the only thing ultimately delivered is Bino. Perhaps, given the context, it should be relabelled Provisional Brexit.

bimboman wrote:Funniest bit about the CU thing could be if the EU do a trade deal with the US that means we have to have the NHS picked apart by American forms and we have no say in it.

Another feature of that postreferendum economy is a much weaker housing market. Property is not yet in freefall, so not too many headlines are being generated about collapsing prices. Again, it’s subtle and, therefore, of no interest to those, such as Boris Johnson, the British foreign secretary, with no interest in details.

Prime residential real estate in central London is where most of the problems lie: activity is very weak and prices are falling. If that continues it will spread to the rest of London and the country at large. Some London landlords are offering deals to prospective tenants: a Brexit discount if they sign a lease that goes at least six months beyond March 2019.

iarmhiman wrote:

Chips wrote:Amongst all the usual braying by Remainers this weekend, they might have missed all the strife going on in the EU itself. The Hungarians have kicked off asking for a billion euros back, but the big news is that half of the EU is refusing to pay any more money into the pot to make up for the shortfall from when the UK stops paying in and ze Germans are starting to realise that they are going to likely have to foot the bill. Airbus have said Brexit won't affect operations in the UK as well which is nice. Barnier and Verhofstadt are getting more and more pressure to soften to UK demands...

...interesting times.

Post your sources Toga like a good lad. That's what we do here.

Gospel wrote:

Nobleman wrote:

Gospel wrote:

bimboman wrote:Gospel and I both voted remain.

I'm in the worse camp of not having voted as I was actually moving house at that time.
The idea that I am a Brexit loon is rather amusing though. Nobleman was already a few sandwiches short of the picnic long before the Referendum was even a chubby in Farage's underpants.

Anyone who declares that "we are all Brexiters now" is very firmly in the Brexit loon camp.

The Nation has decided. Article 50 has been triggered by an act of Parliament. There's a political debate to be had over the terms but as things stand the result isn't going to be overturned. Brexit is happening whether we like it or not.

Chips wrote:

iarmhiman wrote:

Chips wrote:Amongst all the usual braying by Remainers this weekend, they might have missed all the strife going on in the EU itself. The Hungarians have kicked off asking for a billion euros back, but the big news is that half of the EU is refusing to pay any more money into the pot to make up for the shortfall from when the UK stops paying in and ze Germans are starting to realise that they are going to likely have to foot the bill. Airbus have said Brexit won't affect operations in the UK as well which is nice. Barnier and Verhofstadt are getting more and more pressure to soften to UK demands...

...interesting times.

Post your sources Toga like a good lad. That's what we do here.

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor- ... ity-costs/

Orbán doesn't sound like an EU fan to be honest.

The UK economy grew slightly more strongly than expected in the final quarter of 2017.

The figures were hailed by the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, as “very, very strong”, but the Office for National Statistics described the expansion as “slow and uneven”.

The preliminary estimate for Q4 GDP growth from the ONS was 0.5 per cent, ahead of the City of London expectation of 0.4 per cent growth.

That reading means calendar year growth for 2017 is estimated at 1.8 per cent, down slightly from the 1.9 per cent seen in 2016, but ahead of the 1.5 per cent growth forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility(OBR) in the November budget.

SamShark wrote:Can we all have AK-47s after our US trade deal?

TranceNRG wrote:

The UK economy grew slightly more strongly than expected in the final quarter of 2017.

The figures were hailed by the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, as “very, very strong”, but the Office for National Statistics described the expansion as “slow and uneven”.

The preliminary estimate for Q4 GDP growth from the ONS was 0.5 per cent, ahead of the City of London expectation of 0.4 per cent growth.

That reading means calendar year growth for 2017 is estimated at 1.8 per cent, down slightly from the 1.9 per cent seen in 2016, but ahead of the 1.5 per cent growth forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility(OBR) in the November budget.

I'd say a 1.8% growth rate is excellent when we were supposed to have a recession after the referendum according tt remainers

iarmhiman wrote:

Chips wrote:

iarmhiman wrote:

Chips wrote:Amongst all the usual braying by Remainers this weekend, they might have missed all the strife going on in the EU itself. The Hungarians have kicked off asking for a billion euros back, but the big news is that half of the EU is refusing to pay any more money into the pot to make up for the shortfall from when the UK stops paying in and ze Germans are starting to realise that they are going to likely have to foot the bill. Airbus have said Brexit won't affect operations in the UK as well which is nice. Barnier and Verhofstadt are getting more and more pressure to soften to UK demands...

...interesting times.

Post your sources Toga like a good lad. That's what we do here.

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor- ... ity-costs/

Orbán doesn't sound like an EU fan to be honest.

Those two countries are causing problems within the EU: Poland and Hungary. They are becoming authoritarian regimes.

If it was just one country, the EU could strip them of their voting rights, but both countries have vetos preventing the EU doing just that to both.

TranceNRG wrote:

The UK economy grew slightly more strongly than expected in the final quarter of 2017.

The figures were hailed by the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, as “very, very strong”, but the Office for National Statistics described the expansion as “slow and uneven”.

The preliminary estimate for Q4 GDP growth from the ONS was 0.5 per cent, ahead of the City of London expectation of 0.4 per cent growth.

That reading means calendar year growth for 2017 is estimated at 1.8 per cent, down slightly from the 1.9 per cent seen in 2016, but ahead of the 1.5 per cent growth forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility(OBR) in the November budget.

I'd say a 1.8% growth rate is excellent when we were supposed to have a recession after the referendum according tt remainers

bimboman wrote:

Another feature of that postreferendum economy is a much weaker housing market. Property is not yet in freefall, so not too many headlines are being generated about collapsing prices. Again, it’s subtle and, therefore, of no interest to those, such as Boris Johnson, the British foreign secretary, with no interest in details.

Prime residential real estate in central London is where most of the problems lie: activity is very weak and prices are falling. If that continues it will spread to the rest of London and the country at large. Some London landlords are offering deals to prospective tenants: a Brexit discount if they sign a lease that goes at least six months beyond March 2019.

This is amazingly stupid, central,London prices (which are 150% higher than post crash) have indeed fallen, but to blame brexit rather than stamp duty changes is a dumb as it gets.

Also if our currency falls 25% on brexit then the buyers will be back.

It really is straw grasping of the highest order, though I now see where Cammy gets his thickness from.

SamShark wrote:Anyone watch Corbyn's speech?

Osborne says Corbyn has made Labour 'more pro-business, more pro-free trade' than Tories
George Osborne’s Evening Standard has welcomed Jeremy Corbyn’s intervention. In its leader, which Osborne, the former chancellor, has promoted on Twitter, it says Corbyn has now made Labour more pro-business than the Tories.

The Labour leader has, with the smallest of nudges, manoeuvred himself into a more pro-business, pro-free trade European policy than the Tory Government.

He has also opened up the looming prospect of the Prime Minister suffering a huge defeat in the Commons, as the number of Tory MPs who agree with remaining in a customs union grows each week.

The Evening Standard has warned consistently that this would happen since the moment the last election result became clear.

So did the Chancellor of the Exchequer, many sensible Cabinet members, business groups, Tory peers and backbench MPs.

But the warnings were ignored and the Conservative leadership instead chose to appease the hardcore Brexiteers, obsessed with the ideological purity of their experiment and — in some cases — openly willing to lose an election, if that’s the price of pursuing it.

SamShark wrote:Anyone watch Corbyn's speech?

George Osborne’s Evening Standard has welcomed Jeremy Corbyn’s intervention. In its leader, which Osborne, the former chancellor, has promoted on Twitter, it says Corbyn has now made Labour more pro-business than the Tories.

The Labour leader has, with the smallest of nudges, manoeuvred himself into a more pro-business, pro-free trade European policy than the Tory Government.

He has also opened up the looming prospect of the Prime Minister suffering a huge defeat in the Commons, as the number of Tory MPs who agree with remaining in a customs union grows each week.

The Evening Standard has warned consistently that this would happen since the moment the last election result became clear.

So did the Chancellor of the Exchequer, many sensible Cabinet members, business groups, Tory peers and backbench MPs.

But the warnings were ignored and the Conservative leadership instead chose to appease the hardcore Brexiteers, obsessed with the ideological purity of their experiment and — in some cases — openly willing to lose an election, if that’s the price of pursuing it.

SamShark wrote:Anyone watch Corbyn's speech?

Labour has widened the debate today on the UK’s relationship with the EU post-Brexit, and many businesses, particularly manufacturers, will be pleased to hear the opposition’s proposal to keep a customs union on the table. It was important to see Jeremy Corbyn putting emphasis on the complexity of cross-border ‘just-in-time’ supply chains that could face significant new costs and barriers without one. As with everything about the Brexit process, however, extracting detailed and specific answers on the future trade arrangements from our political leaders has been a slow and laborious process.

SaintK wrote:IoD with a qualified welcome.

Labour has widened the debate today on the UK’s relationship with the EU post-Brexit, and many businesses, particularly manufacturers, will be pleased to hear the opposition’s proposal to keep a customs union on the table. It was important to see Jeremy Corbyn putting emphasis on the complexity of cross-border ‘just-in-time’ supply chains that could face significant new costs and barriers without one. As with everything about the Brexit process, however, extracting detailed and specific answers on the future trade arrangements from our political leaders has been a slow and laborious process.

bimboman wrote:

SaintK wrote:IoD with a qualified welcome.

Labour has widened the debate today on the UK’s relationship with the EU post-Brexit, and many businesses, particularly manufacturers, will be pleased to hear the opposition’s proposal to keep a customs union on the table. It was important to see Jeremy Corbyn putting emphasis on the complexity of cross-border ‘just-in-time’ supply chains that could face significant new costs and barriers without one. As with everything about the Brexit process, however, extracting detailed and specific answers on the future trade arrangements from our political leaders has been a slow and laborious process.

Also he's left a bundle of wiggle room, as his actual words were

"During the transition period, labour would seek to remain in "a" customs union with the EU and within the single market..

He has made no commitment to the end state .....

SaintK wrote:IoD with a qualified welcome.

Labour has widened the debate today on the UK’s relationship with the EU post-Brexit, and many businesses, particularly manufacturers, will be pleased to hear the opposition’s proposal to keep a customs union on the table. It was important to see Jeremy Corbyn putting emphasis on the complexity of cross-border ‘just-in-time’ supply chains that could face significant new costs and barriers without one. As with everything about the Brexit process, however, extracting detailed and specific answers on the future trade arrangements from our political leaders has been a slow and laborious process.

The Labour leader’s commitment to a customs union will put jobs and living standards first by remaining in a close economic relationship with the EU. It will help grow trade without accepting freedom of movement or payments to the EU.

Growing trade is not an ‘either or’ question – Germany already exports five times as much with China as the UK from within the customs union. Many thousands of ambitious UK firms are looking to break into new markets. These companies need government to focus on making access to markets simpler, not putting up barriers to our most important trading partner.

Importantly, a customs union will go part of the way to providing a real-world solution to the Irish border question that is of such urgent concern to the people and firms of Northern Ireland.

This evidence cannot be ignored. To do so would create barriers where there are none, risking prosperity and future living standards.

SamShark wrote:

bimboman wrote:

SaintK wrote:IoD with a qualified welcome.

Labour has widened the debate today on the UK’s relationship with the EU post-Brexit, and many businesses, particularly manufacturers, will be pleased to hear the opposition’s proposal to keep a customs union on the table. It was important to see Jeremy Corbyn putting emphasis on the complexity of cross-border ‘just-in-time’ supply chains that could face significant new costs and barriers without one. As with everything about the Brexit process, however, extracting detailed and specific answers on the future trade arrangements from our political leaders has been a slow and laborious process.

Also he's left a bundle of wiggle room, as his actual words were

"During the transition period, labour would seek to remain in "a" customs union with the EU and within the single market..

He has made no commitment to the end state .....

He also said customs union at the end of transition - being reported as permanent customs union

piquant wrote:Good to see some movement on the customs union, though the single market is the bigger issue perhaps so work to be done still

bimboman wrote:

piquant wrote:Good to see some movement on the customs union, though the single market is the bigger issue perhaps so work to be done still

Optional movement.

piquant wrote:

bimboman wrote:

piquant wrote:Good to see some movement on the customs union, though the single market is the bigger issue perhaps so work to be done still

Optional movement.

Baby steps. Like many Brexit fans he has big issues with reality so this isn't nothing.

Santa wrote:Another embarrassingly positive forecast

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... -upgraded/

When oh when will Brexit actually turn out bad!?!

Rinkals wrote:

Santa wrote:Another embarrassingly positive forecast

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... -upgraded/

When oh when will Brexit actually turn out bad!?!

When you actually leave?

Rugby2023 wrote:

piquant wrote:

bimboman wrote:

piquant wrote:Good to see some movement on the customs union, though the single market is the bigger issue perhaps so work to be done still

Optional movement.

Baby steps. Like many Brexit fans he has big issues with reality so this isn't nothing.

More middle road walking from Corbyn designed to do nothing more than undermine the Govt. with the intention of bring him closer to power. As you intimate, he has no love for the European Project.

bimboman wrote:

Rinkals wrote:

Santa wrote:Another embarrassingly positive forecast

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... -upgraded/

When oh when will Brexit actually turn out bad!?!

When you actually leave?

The predictions didn't stay post leaving they made lots of immediate predictions, none of which have been close.