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Whether you can or can't actually vote IRL, In, or Out
In 60%  60%  [ 247 ]
Out 40%  40%  [ 165 ]
Total votes : 412
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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:02 am 
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shereblue wrote:
shereblue wrote:
shereblue wrote:
bimboman wrote:
shereblue wrote:
Of course.
TTIP with no say would be a concern.
I'd hope our influence would remain significant though.
We could always threaten to pull out. I reckon the EU couldn't face all that again.



What ? Thats not going to be possible for any reasonable period of time. Literally the insurance dominated European health market could force American and in fact European health competition into the UK, I'd welcome it but the left and centrists would shit a brick. This is just one of a million reasons staying in the CU but not the EU is particularly dumb.


Nothing is risk-free. I happen to suspect that free trade deals of any significant value will take time to agree and then implement and the benefits will come along gradually after that. Meanwhile we lose a commercially attractive known known. Over which we would retain influence. Even better if we could now negotiate some protections. The US would be bloody interested in the EEA adjunct if we were part of it and we would inevitably be relatively central to any negotiations. All relative guesswork from here, I admit.

For a committed remainer like me, it would also make re-entrance into the EU technically much easier. The rebate loss is the best bulwark for Brexitists against our ever rejoining. The EEA however would change character if we joined. It may develop to give us an increasingly influential alternative to the semi detached membership we have always favoured in the past.

As a bonus, the Irish border is a relative doddle meanwhile.



EEA membership has little no no affect on the Irish border issue. EEA has very little to do with customs , Norway and Switzerland both have customs borders with the EU.

You are of course right. Anyway, not sure that the likes of Norway and Switzerland would truly welcome the UK elephant in their room.

A CU/SM deal of our own would work. Obviously there are significant constraints which are well short of "cake and eat it". The independent trade deal constraints are the ones we have lived with for the last 45 years anyway. We would have less influence than we do now. That's voting to leave. But flipping the Leave German car industry arguments, of course we'd retain influence. I would expect specific mitigating mechanisms in any deal to reflect that.

We continue, semi detached with a trade model that works, adding on further areas of a la carte co-operation.

It would be interesting to see a range of comparative modelling forecasts.



Imreckon you've hacked Mays last presentation to the cabinet.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:04 am 
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bimboman wrote:
La soule wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-44092030/brexit-fosters-growing-intolerance-says-un

Interesting.



The UN is a joke rather than being interesting.



I guess you did not like what she was saying?


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:05 am 
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La soule wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-44092030/brexit-fosters-growing-intolerance-says-un

Interesting.



Ah yes, the UN report with virtually no evidence and claims the spike in Anti-Semitism recently is to do with Brexit and not say Corbynista's going nuts and believes the Uk should scrape anti-Terrorism measures.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:06 am 
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La soule wrote:
bimboman wrote:
La soule wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-44092030/brexit-fosters-growing-intolerance-says-un

Interesting.



The UN is a joke rather than being interesting.



I guess you did not like what she was saying?


I certainly don't like liars publishing things that are untrue for political,reasons no.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:06 am 
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La soule wrote:
bimboman wrote:
La soule wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-44092030/brexit-fosters-growing-intolerance-says-un

Interesting.



The UN is a joke rather than being interesting.



I guess you did not like what she was saying?


I certainly don't like liars publishing things that are untrue for political,reasons no.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:09 am 
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bimboman wrote:
sewa wrote:
You can´t check every package and vehicle so they sample, lets say its even less at 1%. How will your camera check the 1%?



We have said we won't change our current checks which we do for duty , vat, smuggling already.


And that will be perfectly acceptable as long as you don´t diverge from the laws and standards of the EU. As soon as you start importing cheap American chlorine chicken and steroid loaded beef (as examples) all bets are off


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:11 am 
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sewa wrote:
bimboman wrote:
sewa wrote:
You can´t check every package and vehicle so they sample, lets say its even less at 1%. How will your camera check the 1%?



We have said we won't change our current checks which we do for duty , vat, smuggling already.


And that will be perfectly acceptable as long as you don´t diverge from the laws and standards of the EU. As soon as you start importing cheap American chlorine chicken and steroid loaded beef (as examples) all bets are off



Yeah that's checks you'll need to make on your side of the border. Go ahead. We can import what we like, we can diverge as much as we like on out side of the border. You seem ever so confused.


Last edited by bimboman on Wed May 16, 2018 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:11 am 
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La soule wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-44092030/brexit-fosters-growing-intolerance-says-un

Interesting.

Where Tendayi Achiume's conclusions were reached in just eleven days courtesy of Warrick University.

For balance:

Quote:
Fact check: the UN Special Rapporteur’s report on British racism
Ross Clark

The first instinct of many people towards Tendayi Achiume, the UN’s Special Rapporteur on Human Rights who finished her 11 day visit to Britain yesterday by claiming that Britain is in the grip of a Brexit-related upsurge in racial intolerance and discrimination, will be to tell her to keep her nose out of our affairs. I am not going to fall into the trap of offering material which could be used to try to prove her point.

So let me just repeat, as I wrote here on the day she arrived, that I am delighted she has chosen Britain for one of her first visits since her appointment last September – the second visit to Britain by a UN special rapporteur on human rights in 25 years – and I hope she follows it up swiftly with visits to the world’s other 200 nations, many of which have yet to receive their first such attention. It does seem a little peculiar that UN special rapporteurs seem to make a regular habit of visiting developed countries – Australia, Germany, Italy, US, Japan, Spain and France among them. Meanwhile, they have only managed to visit China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Indonesia, and have found time for just two African nations, Mauritania and Ivory Coast, on their itinerary. Perhaps this is something which Achiume, who hails from Zambia, might like to put right.

But for the moment, let’s just deal with some of Achiume’s conclusions in detail:
She says: “I am shocked by the criminalisation of young people from ethnic minorities, especially young black men. Citing the Lammy Review, she states that ethnic minorities are treated disproportionately: “at every stage in the criminal justice process”. This does not fit with David Lammy’s findings. After analysing 390,000 jury decisions he found that conviction rates were consistent around the 66 per cent – 68 per cent mark for all ethnic groups. He found higher conviction rates for BAME defendants in magistrates’ courts but only for adults, not children. On sentencing, he found that BAME offenders were more likely to receive prison sentences for drugs’ offences, but not for acquisitive violence and sexual offences.

As for the decision whether or not to charge suspected criminals, Lammy found that BAME suspects are slightly less likely to be charged by the Crown Prosecution Service than are white ones. What he did find was that black defendants are less likely to plead guilty when charged than are white defendants. But then this is the decision of the defendant, so is hard to claim it is the result of discrimination.

Achiume says that young black men are “over-represented in police stop and searches”. On raw figures this is true. However, if she had studied all the evidence to hand she would have heard of the report revealed by Alasdair Palmer, Theresa May’s former speechwriter, which revealed that young black men are not disproportionately stopped when you take into account who is on the streets when police are doing the stopping and searching.

Achiume says she is shocked that young black men “are over-represented in the prison system”. Given that she holds an academic position in Los Angeles, it is hard to understand why she should be shocked by this. It is true that black men are statistically more likely to be in jail in Britain than are white people – they make up 3 per cent of the population but 12 per cent of the general population (although a similar disparity exists in the US where the figures are 13 per cent and 40 per cent respectively). Yet the disparity cannot even nearly be explained by differences in conviction rates, sentencing or charging rates, so Achiume will have to look elsewhere for an explanation – whether that be differences in socio-economic background, different age profiles, cultural attitudes towards crime or whatever.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:15 am 
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bimboman wrote:
sewa wrote:
bimboman wrote:
sewa wrote:
You can´t check every package and vehicle so they sample, lets say its even less at 1%. How will your camera check the 1%?



We have said we won't change our current checks which we do for duty , vat, smuggling already.


And that will be perfectly acceptable as long as you don´t diverge from the laws and standards of the EU. As soon as you start importing cheap American chlorine chicken and steroid loaded beef (as examples) all bets are off



Yeah that's checks you'll need to make on your side of the border. Go ahead. We can import what we like, we can diverge as much as we like on out side of the border. You seem ever so confused.


Eh yeah, no deal so. Just get on with leaving please you are wasting our time


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:29 am 
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sewa wrote:
bimboman wrote:
sewa wrote:
bimboman wrote:
sewa wrote:
You can´t check every package and vehicle so they sample, lets say its even less at 1%. How will your camera check the 1%?



We have said we won't change our current checks which we do for duty , vat, smuggling already.


And that will be perfectly acceptable as long as you don´t diverge from the laws and standards of the EU. As soon as you start importing cheap American chlorine chicken and steroid loaded beef (as examples) all bets are off



Yeah that's checks you'll need to make on your side of the border. Go ahead. We can import what we like, we can diverge as much as we like on out side of the border. You seem ever so confused.


Eh yeah, no deal so. Just get on with leaving please you are wasting our time



You again seem confused, if there's no deal we don't have to change anything in Ireland, you apprantly do.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:46 am 
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Gospel wrote:
shereblue wrote:
You're very black and white. eg "Staying in the CU as rule takers is anathema to Brexit", picking phrases straight out of the JRM phrasebook. So "rule takers" and "vassal state" are particular favourites of yours. Personally, I'm more nuanced in my outlook. I answer to a couple of other nationalities besides Irish by the way.

You're utterly lacking in nuance. You are deeply opposed to Brexit and contribute nothing other than scorn and derision. Whereas I just want a good deal for both sides but understand that it looks unlikely given the politics at play. Remaining in the CU with the EU is effectively the UK outsourcing our trade policy to a foreign government. Who the fucking fuck would ever countenance that?

I am deeply in favour of the UK making a strong and distinctive contribution to the EU and through it to the wider world. Ideally from within the EU to which institution and to whose members I ascribe enormous credit for the present day shape of our continent.

The UK has been outsourcing its trade policy to the EU for the last 45 years. It would have less influence out of the EU but that would be up for negotiation. The simple application of the Brexitists' own German Car Industry argument hardly means we would suddenly become without influence. Apparently, UK influence now vanishes in a puff of smoke as the UK suddenly becomes a "vassal state". Something not seen in Europe since the days of the Ottoman Empire.

As I have commented, it would be interesting to see comparative outcome modelling.


Last edited by shereblue on Wed May 16, 2018 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:48 am 
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Just as an aside I see May is meeting that tyrant Erdogan at the moment. Its all about cash for the Tories, no moral backbone


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:50 am 
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sewa wrote:
Just as an aside I see May is meeting that tyrant Erdogan at the moment. Its all about cash for the Tories, no moral backbone

Well we want to make their fighter jets.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:52 am 
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Petej wrote:
sewa wrote:
Just as an aside I see May is meeting that tyrant Erdogan at the moment. Its all about cash for the Tories, no moral backbone

Well we want to make their fighter jets.


So they can oppress the Kurds as well as their own people, super


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:56 am 
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bimboman wrote:
La soule wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-44092030/brexit-fosters-growing-intolerance-says-un

Interesting.



The UK is a joke rather than being interesting.


Fixed ;)


Last edited by shereblue on Wed May 16, 2018 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:58 am 
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sewa wrote:
Petej wrote:
sewa wrote:
Just as an aside I see May is meeting that tyrant Erdogan at the moment. Its all about cash for the Tories, no moral backbone

Well we want to make their fighter jets.


So they can oppress the Kurds as well as their own people, super

They will do that at anyrate whether they get stuff off the UK, French, Americans or Russians.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:09 pm 
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eldanielfire wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
When the Scottish Parliament rejects the EU withdrawal Bill, what does May do next ?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 51956.html

A full scale UK constitutional crisis on the cards ?


No. Not much Scotland can do, Stugeron's option if overruled is to declare Indy2 which the Scottish do not want.

Any insights on Scots Con MPs attitudes towards voting for Westminster to arrogate to itself powers over devolved issues?


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:12 pm 
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Petej wrote:
sewa wrote:
Petej wrote:
sewa wrote:
Just as an aside I see May is meeting that tyrant Erdogan at the moment. Its all about cash for the Tories, no moral backbone

Well we want to make their fighter jets.


So they can oppress the Kurds as well as their own people, super

They will do that at anyrate whether they get stuff off the UK, French, Americans or Russians.


So that's ok then .


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:19 pm 
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Leinster in London wrote:
Petej wrote:
sewa wrote:
Petej wrote:
sewa wrote:
Just as an aside I see May is meeting that tyrant Erdogan at the moment. Its all about cash for the Tories, no moral backbone

Well we want to make their fighter jets.


So they can oppress the Kurds as well as their own people, super

They will do that at anyrate whether they get stuff off the UK, French, Americans or Russians.


So that's ok then .


Back to immoral Ireland denying their EU allies much needed tax revenue for their public services. In encouraging this race to the bottom do you feel partially responsible for Brexit?


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:34 pm 
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Quote:
The UK has been outsourcing its trade policy to the EU for the last 45 years. It would have less influence out of the EU but that would be up for negotiation. The simple application of the Brexitists' own German Car Industry argument hardly means we would suddenly become without influence. Apparently, UK influence vanishes in a puff of smoke as the UK suddenly becomes a "vassal state". Something not seen in Europe since the days of the Ottoman Empire.


We will have no vote and less influence than Bulgaria on our own trade policy and suddenly “empire”
Britain is such a force for good they’ll let that ride and let us play? That simply defies any logic at all, it’s proper “he promised to not hit the face” beaten wife mentality.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:47 pm 
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Oh no. Emoji coming. :lol:


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:50 pm 
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shereblue wrote:
Oh no. Emoji coming. :lol:



Great response, a detailed rebuttal.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:53 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
shereblue wrote:
Oh no. Emoji coming. :lol:



Great response, a detailed rebuttal.


Oh the ironing :lol:


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:55 pm 
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sewa wrote:
bimboman wrote:
shereblue wrote:
Oh no. Emoji coming. :lol:



Great response, a detailed rebuttal.


Oh the ironing :lol:



Got anywhere explaining how the Irish border currently operates in regard to contraband
Etc?

We will chalk that up as another “sewa moment”


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:58 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
sewa wrote:
bimboman wrote:
shereblue wrote:
Oh no. Emoji coming. :lol:



Great response, a detailed rebuttal.


Oh the ironing :lol:



Got anywhere explaining how the Irish border currently operates in regard to contraband
Etc?

We will chalk that up as another “sewa moment”


I explained this already, within the EU have a common set of standards, regulations etc. Therefore we apply much less stringent controls. Are you starting to understand it? Even a little bit?


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 1:03 pm 
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Quote:
I explained this already, within the EU have a common set of standards, regulations etc. Therefore we apply much less stringent controls. Are you starting to understand it? Even a little bit


Sorry you’re claiming that contraband has eu regulations ?


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 1:14 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Quote:
I explained this already, within the EU have a common set of standards, regulations etc. Therefore we apply much less stringent controls. Are you starting to understand it? Even a little bit


Sorry you’re claiming that contraband has eu regulations ?


No, I am saying that one of the side effects of the Maastricht treaty is that criminals, contraband and so called ´welfare tourists´can also move much more freely. you take the rough with the smooth when you sign up to the deal. Such is life


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 1:23 pm 
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sewa wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Quote:
I explained this already, within the EU have a common set of standards, regulations etc. Therefore we apply much less stringent controls. Are you starting to understand it? Even a little bit


Sorry you’re claiming that contraband has eu regulations ?


No, I am saying that one of the side effects of the Maastricht treaty is that criminals, contraband and so called ´welfare tourists´can also move much more freely. you take the rough with the smooth when you sign up to the deal. Such is life



So your claim is that regulated goods need more checks than illegal ones?
?

Now I’ll ask the actual question again, how do the Irish border operate currently in terms of VAT and Duty processing ? How are those goods checked?


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 1:26 pm 
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No, I am saying quite clearly that members of the club get special treatment. People outside the club are treated much less favourably. There are popular kids and loners. It will be like your school days all over again


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 1:28 pm 
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sewa wrote:
No, I am saying quite clearly that members of the club get special treatment. People outside the club are treated much less favourably. There are popular kids and loners. It will be like your school days all over again



You can’t answer how the Irish border is currently controlled for VAT or Duty can you ?


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 1:32 pm 
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sewa wrote:
No, I am saying quite clearly that members of the club get special treatment. People outside the club are treated much less favourably. There are popular kids and loners. It will be like your school days all over again


Straight from the LaSoule playbook, I prefer the bullshit airport stories.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 2:02 pm 
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I think we can all agree that UK will still have more influence than Ireland even outside the EU due to the size of the economy, defence, etc.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 2:19 pm 
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DragsterDriver wrote:
sewa wrote:
No, I am saying quite clearly that members of the club get special treatment. People outside the club are treated much less favourably. There are popular kids and loners. It will be like your school days all over again


Straight from the LaSoule playbook, I prefer the bullshit airport stories.


Hi buddy. You'll still be allowed to play with us from time to time. We will explain the rules then.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 2:37 pm 
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shereblue wrote:
The UK has been outsourcing its trade policy to the EU for the last 45 years. It would have less influence out of the EU but that would be up for negotiation. The simple application of the Brexitists' own German Car Industry argument hardly means we would suddenly become without influence. Apparently, UK influence now vanishes in a puff of smoke as the UK suddenly becomes a "vassal state". Something not seen in Europe since the days of the Ottoman Empire.

As I have commented, it would be interesting to see comparative outcome modelling.

No we've been pooling our trade policy for the last 45 years. That all changed when we resigned our membership. Now we have to choose between making our own decisions for trade or having a hostile [not in our best interests] foreign power do it for us. You're an absolute fool if you think we'd have any influence - had that been the case we'd still be members.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 2:40 pm 
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La soule wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
sewa wrote:
No, I am saying quite clearly that members of the club get special treatment. People outside the club are treated much less favourably. There are popular kids and loners. It will be like your school days all over again


Straight from the LaSoule playbook, I prefer the bullshit airport stories.


Hi buddy. You'll still be allowed to play with us from time to time. We will explain the rules then.


:thumbup:


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 4:00 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
piquant wrote:
There is certainly a degree to which the EU are using the border as a political point of negotiation. But that's to be expected, there's no point triggering article 50 and then complaining others aren't as compliant as you'd like, there was always going to be intransigence, and we'll have the same problems in future FTA that other sides want things we don't want to give.

Get off the stage.


There is some good news for the morons who think all this a good idea in that we don't stand to lose so much in future FTA. Whereas it could be all too obvious leaving the EU might not just be a hugely costly process in itself but also costs us huge amounts of growth in future.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 4:43 pm 
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piquant wrote:
Gospel wrote:
piquant wrote:
There is certainly a degree to which the EU are using the border as a political point of negotiation. But that's to be expected, there's no point triggering article 50 and then complaining others aren't as compliant as you'd like, there was always going to be intransigence, and we'll have the same problems in future FTA that other sides want things we don't want to give.

Get off the stage.


There is some good news for the morons who think all this a good idea in that we don't stand to lose so much in future FTA. Whereas it could be all too obvious leaving the EU might not just be a hugely costly process in itself but also costs us huge amounts of growth in future.



"Huge" , no one knows the future affect. I remember similar arguments regarding us not joining the Euro btw, was that a mistake as well ?


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 5:26 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
piquant wrote:
Gospel wrote:
piquant wrote:
There is certainly a degree to which the EU are using the border as a political point of negotiation. But that's to be expected, there's no point triggering article 50 and then complaining others aren't as compliant as you'd like, there was always going to be intransigence, and we'll have the same problems in future FTA that other sides want things we don't want to give.

Get off the stage.


There is some good news for the morons who think all this a good idea in that we don't stand to lose so much in future FTA. Whereas it could be all too obvious leaving the EU might not just be a hugely costly process in itself but also costs us huge amounts of growth in future.



"Huge" , no one knows the future affect. I remember similar arguments regarding us not joining the Euro btw, was that a mistake as well ?



No based on what has happened, though there's a big caveat that had we joined things would have been different, whether better or worse is impossible to say. I wasn't a fan of us joining the Euro mostly on the basis it didn't look an economic win for us, and it was very expensive to make such a change, but I would have moved my view to support joining had it looked like it'd make economic sense (I still would).

And I think the costs of leaving will be huge. Which isn't to say the economy mayn't grow anyway, but all the (sensible) models one can use show the single market and to a lesser degree the customs unions to be of massive value to participant nations.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 5:35 pm 
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Quote:
And I think the costs of leaving will be huge. Which isn't to say the economy mayn't grow anyway, but all the (sensible) models one can use show the single market and to a lesser degree the customs unions to be of massive value to participant nations.



Can you link those models ? It would be interesting to see how they split the single market and customs union in measurement.


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 6:32 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Posts: 14373
Before you link them let's see Bimbos wonder camera that inspects the inside of truck trailers


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