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Whether you can or can't actually vote IRL, In, or Out
In 60%  60%  [ 244 ]
Out 40%  40%  [ 163 ]
Total votes : 407
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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 2:54 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
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The central point I raise is whether - compared to the proven Single Market and Customs Union - the reality of negotiating, implementing, adapting to and managing scores of trade deals will ever produce a net economic benefit to the UK as a whole? If we can have it as "extra" (cake and eat it) then yes, great. Otherwise, in the absence of any "comparative" modelling, the net benefits of Fox's trade deals seem to be an "article of faith". I use my language kindly.


We already conduct more trade outside the EU (and rising) than in the EU ( and falling) , they'll be trade post brexit.


Ah so, you are not bothered about the mere 44% of your total exports that the EU represents.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:10 pm 
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sewa wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Quote:
The central point I raise is whether - compared to the proven Single Market and Customs Union - the reality of negotiating, implementing, adapting to and managing scores of trade deals will ever produce a net economic benefit to the UK as a whole? If we can have it as "extra" (cake and eat it) then yes, great. Otherwise, in the absence of any "comparative" modelling, the net benefits of Fox's trade deals seem to be an "article of faith". I use my language kindly.


We already conduct more trade outside the EU (and rising) than in the EU ( and falling) , they'll be trade post brexit.


Ah so, you are not bothered about the mere 44% of your total exports that the EU represents.


It is decreasing so not very relevant.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:14 pm 
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Indeed I am sure that Bimbo will be along to explain why their exports to a major market declining is actually a good thing


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:19 pm 
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There will be so many FTAs signed by the government right after they crash out of the EU that we will fall into oblivion, cease to exist pretty much.

Maybe we should let them have that cake after all.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:27 pm 
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sewa wrote:
Ah so, you are not bothered about the mere 44% of your total exports that the EU represents.

Of course it's a concern but you need to also consider that exports to the EU amount to about 10% of the UK's total GDP.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:29 pm 
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sewa wrote:
Indeed I am sure that Bimbo will be along to explain why their exports to a major market declining is actually a good thing

It's only declining relative to our exports to the rest of the world which are growing at a much faster pace.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:33 pm 
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sewa wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Quote:
The central point I raise is whether - compared to the proven Single Market and Customs Union - the reality of negotiating, implementing, adapting to and managing scores of trade deals will ever produce a net economic benefit to the UK as a whole? If we can have it as "extra" (cake and eat it) then yes, great. Otherwise, in the absence of any "comparative" modelling, the net benefits of Fox's trade deals seem to be an "article of faith". I use my language kindly.


We already conduct more trade outside the EU (and rising) than in the EU ( and falling) , they'll be trade post brexit.


Ah so, you are not bothered about the mere 44% of your total exports that the EU represents.



Again something I haven’t said....


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:35 pm 
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sewa wrote:
Indeed I am sure that Bimbo will be along to explain why their exports to a major market declining is actually a good thing

I seem to remember he addressed this before.

IIRC he said that the EU trade was insignificant compared to the potential World market. Moreover, under WTO rules, tariffs would fall to a third of what they are currently.

So, plenty of cake to go around.

I remain unconvinced, though.

For a start, I wonder if Brexit impacts all the FTAs that he trumpets about. I would imagine that, if you negotiate an FTA on the basis of your membership of the EU, should your membership change, that may well diminish the value of the agreement to the other parties.

Or will they think it's just peachy and indulge the UK because you're such a bunch of nice guys?


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:46 pm 
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Rinkals wrote:
sewa wrote:
Indeed I am sure that Bimbo will be along to explain why their exports to a major market declining is actually a good thing

I seem to remember he addressed this before.

IIRC he said that the EU trade was insignificant compared to the potential World market. Moreover, under WTO rules, tariffs would fall to a third of what they are currently.

So, plenty of cake to go around.

I remain unconvinced, though.

For a start, I wonder if Brexit impacts all the FTAs that he trumpets about. I would imagine that, if you negotiate an FTA on the basis of your membership of the EU, should your membership change, that may well diminish the value of the agreement to the other parties.

Or will they think it's just peachy and indulge the UK because you're such a bunch of nice guys?

....who have bombed the shit out of/starved/invaded/fúcked over at various times in their history.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:48 pm 
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Spoken like a true Anglophile.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:48 pm 
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camroc1 wrote:
Rinkals wrote:
sewa wrote:
Indeed I am sure that Bimbo will be along to explain why their exports to a major market declining is actually a good thing

I seem to remember he addressed this before.

IIRC he said that the EU trade was insignificant compared to the potential World market. Moreover, under WTO rules, tariffs would fall to a third of what they are currently.

So, plenty of cake to go around.

I remain unconvinced, though.

For a start, I wonder if Brexit impacts all the FTAs that he trumpets about. I would imagine that, if you negotiate an FTA on the basis of your membership of the EU, should your membership change, that may well diminish the value of the agreement to the other parties.

Or will they think it's just peachy and indulge the UK because you're such a bunch of nice guys?

....who have bombed the shit out of/starved/invaded/fúcked over at various times in their history.


You make us sound like typical Europeans


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 4:16 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
sewa wrote:
Ah so, you are not bothered about the mere 44% of your total exports that the EU represents.

Of course it's a concern but you need to also consider that exports to the EU amount to about 10% of the UK's total GDP.


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43212899

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21

44% according to this and numerous other sources? Anyway it doesn´t matter, you can live without it


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 4:20 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Quote:
The central point I raise is whether - compared to the proven Single Market and Customs Union - the reality of negotiating, implementing, adapting to and managing scores of trade deals will ever produce a net economic benefit to the UK as a whole? If we can have it as "extra" (cake and eat it) then yes, great. Otherwise, in the absence of any "comparative" modelling, the net benefits of Fox's trade deals seem to be an "article of faith". I use my language kindly.


We already conduct more trade outside the EU (and rising) than in the EU ( and falling) , they'll be trade post brexit.


The rising and falling aspects reflect "developing" economies. That factor applies to every advanced economy in the EU and outside of it.

There can be some genuine excitement about prospects post-Brexit. Especially for the innovative and entrepreneurial. Expect some astounding success stories.

What about the bulk of trade though. The more geographically tied, the enterprising and decent who trade very effectively in the largest single market in the world - and, as luck would have it, right next door.

China, India and Brazil are not for everyone. Hopefully Trump will pass but the USA is a very inwardly focussed market regardless.

Would increasing productivity and becoming better exporters within the EU SM not be a better focus?


Last edited by shereblue on Thu May 17, 2018 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 4:22 pm 
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Rinkals wrote:
sewa wrote:
Indeed I am sure that Bimbo will be along to explain why their exports to a major market declining is actually a good thing

I seem to remember he addressed this before.

IIRC he said that the EU trade was insignificant compared to the potential World market. Moreover, under WTO rules, tariffs would fall to a third of what they are currently.

So, plenty of cake to go around.

I remain unconvinced, though.

For a start, I wonder if Brexit impacts all the FTAs that he trumpets about. I would imagine that, if you negotiate an FTA on the basis of your membership of the EU, should your membership change, that may well diminish the value of the agreement to the other parties.

Or will they think it's just peachy and indulge the UK because you're such a bunch of nice guys?



I also seem to remember it, I can't believe you said you had murdered your next door neighbour and buried them under the patio. Anyway sweet memories.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 4:22 pm 
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sewa wrote:
Gospel wrote:
sewa wrote:
Ah so, you are not bothered about the mere 44% of your total exports that the EU represents.

Of course it's a concern but you need to also consider that exports to the EU amount to about 10% of the UK's total GDP.


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43212899

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21

44% according to this and numerous other sources? Anyway it doesn´t matter, you can live without it

Slow learner? Exports amount to around 27% of UK GDP - 44% of which are with the EU.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 4:26 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Rinkals wrote:
sewa wrote:
Indeed I am sure that Bimbo will be along to explain why their exports to a major market declining is actually a good thing

I seem to remember he addressed this before.

IIRC he said that the EU trade was insignificant compared to the potential World market. Moreover, under WTO rules, tariffs would fall to a third of what they are currently.

So, plenty of cake to go around.

I remain unconvinced, though.

For a start, I wonder if Brexit impacts all the FTAs that he trumpets about. I would imagine that, if you negotiate an FTA on the basis of your membership of the EU, should your membership change, that may well diminish the value of the agreement to the other parties.

Or will they think it's just peachy and indulge the UK because you're such a bunch of nice guys?



I also seem to remember it, I can't believe you said you had murdered your next door neighbour and buried them under the patio. Anyway sweet memories.

What a weird post. I'm sure it made a lot of sense to you when you posted it.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 4:39 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Leinster in London wrote:
bimboman wrote:
sewa wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/leo-varadkar-theresa-may-sofia-brexit-deal

Varadkar said: “We need to have that backstop because that gives us the assurance that there will be no hard border on our island. So we stand by our position that there can be no withdrawal agreement without that backstop.

“If the UK wants to put forward alternatives … we’re willing to examine that. But we need to see it written down in black and white and know that its workable and legally operable. And we’ve yet to see anything that remotely approaches that.”



If only we could make advances on the current border procedures, what are they?


None.



Really ? , vat , duty and contraband have no regulation either side of the border ? Is that true ?


There are no procedures at the border.


Last edited by Leinster in London on Thu May 17, 2018 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 4:39 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
sewa wrote:
Gospel wrote:
sewa wrote:
Ah so, you are not bothered about the mere 44% of your total exports that the EU represents.

Of course it's a concern but you need to also consider that exports to the EU amount to about 10% of the UK's total GDP.


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43212899

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21

44% according to this and numerous other sources? Anyway it doesn´t matter, you can live without it

Slow learner? Exports amount to around 27% of UK GDP - 44% of which are with the EU.

As you already know a lot of those exports are from more deprived regions of the UK that voted for Brexit (north east and west Midlands). So I guess they would regard any negative from Brexit as worth the cost.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 4:42 pm 
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Petej wrote:
As you already know a lot of those exports are from more deprived regions of the UK that voted for Brexit (north east and west Midlands). So I guess they would regard any negative from Brexit as worth the cost.

I rather suspect they would like their elected government to promote alternative trade agreements. Since when did you care about Brexit voters? You think they're thick scum.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 5:29 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
Petej wrote:
As you already know a lot of those exports are from more deprived regions of the UK that voted for Brexit (north east and west Midlands). So I guess they would regard any negative from Brexit as worth the cost.

I rather suspect they would like their elected government to promote alternative trade agreements. Since when did you care about Brexit voters? You think they're thick scum.

In a leaked report earlier this year, the Japanese government pointed out that 879 Japanese companies, including manufacturing giant Hitachi and carmakers Honda, Nissan and Toyota, employ 142,000 staff in Britain. It called on Mrs May to keep Britain in the EU single market and customs union, warning that Japanese companies may otherwise relocate to continental Europe.

Taking Sunderland, the issue is that leaving the Customs Union could incur "rules of origin" challenges that would lead to Nissan either having to discontinue importing components from outside the EU (Japan in practice) or having to face a 10% tariff on exporting to the EU.

I doubt that many of them give two fucks about Fox's promotion of alternative trade deals.

Poor sods have tier three football and job insecurity. Only one notch above Swindon's Honda workers.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 5:32 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
Petej wrote:
As you already know a lot of those exports are from more deprived regions of the UK that voted for Brexit (north east and west Midlands). So I guess they would regard any negative from Brexit as worth the cost.

I rather suspect they would like their elected government to promote alternative trade agreements. Since when did you care about Brexit voters? You think they're thick scum.

Yep hate them all. You really seem to know the north and Midlands well how did you end up supporting wasps?


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 5:35 pm 
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Since their move to Coventry? :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 5:39 pm 
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Petej wrote:
Gospel wrote:
Petej wrote:
As you already know a lot of those exports are from more deprived regions of the UK that voted for Brexit (north east and west Midlands). So I guess they would regard any negative from Brexit as worth the cost.

I rather suspect they would like their elected government to promote alternative trade agreements. Since when did you care about Brexit voters? You think they're thick scum.

Yep hate them all. You really seem to know the north and Midlands well how did you end up supporting wasps?

I'm from London. I'm just here bullshitting like the rest of you.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 5:41 pm 
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shereblue wrote:
Since their move to Coventry? :lol:

Pretty sure he was a Wasps supporter before then. If you followed rugby in that area prior to wasps moving there you would likely support saints or tigers.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 6:04 pm 
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Have watched Wasps at Sudbury and Wycombe but missed out the Loftus Road variant. West of Londinium or West Londinium?

Nostalgia aside, they seem to be filling a gap in the market at Coventry


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 6:04 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
Petej wrote:
Gospel wrote:
Petej wrote:
As you already know a lot of those exports are from more deprived regions of the UK that voted for Brexit (north east and west Midlands). So I guess they would regard any negative from Brexit as worth the cost.

I rather suspect they would like their elected government to promote alternative trade agreements. Since when did you care about Brexit voters? You think they're thick scum.

Yep hate them all. You really seem to know the north and Midlands well how did you end up supporting wasps?

I'm from London. I'm just here bullshitting like the rest of you.

Weirdly I don't hate the region I grew up in and worked in and I certainly don't want them to lose out. I wish Boris, Gove, Farage, the dirty digger, Lord rothermere and dirty des the porn Baron could be executed if brexit makes those regions poorer because many people did believe the shit they spouted and published.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 6:23 pm 
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Rinkals wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Rinkals wrote:
sewa wrote:
Indeed I am sure that Bimbo will be along to explain why their exports to a major market declining is actually a good thing

I seem to remember he addressed this before.

IIRC he said that the EU trade was insignificant compared to the potential World market. Moreover, under WTO rules, tariffs would fall to a third of what they are currently.

So, plenty of cake to go around.

I remain unconvinced, though.

For a start, I wonder if Brexit impacts all the FTAs that he trumpets about. I would imagine that, if you negotiate an FTA on the basis of your membership of the EU, should your membership change, that may well diminish the value of the agreement to the other parties.

Or will they think it's just peachy and indulge the UK because you're such a bunch of nice guys?



I also seem to remember it, I can't believe you said you had murdered your next door neighbour and buried them under the patio. Anyway sweet memories.

What a weird post. I'm sure it made a lot of sense to you when you posted it.




Good times. :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 6:24 pm 
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Leinster in London wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Leinster in London wrote:
bimboman wrote:
sewa wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/17/leo-varadkar-theresa-may-sofia-brexit-deal

Varadkar said: “We need to have that backstop because that gives us the assurance that there will be no hard border on our island. So we stand by our position that there can be no withdrawal agreement without that backstop.

“If the UK wants to put forward alternatives … we’re willing to examine that. But we need to see it written down in black and white and know that its workable and legally operable. And we’ve yet to see anything that remotely approaches that.”



If only we could make advances on the current border procedures, what are they?


None.



Really ? , vat , duty and contraband have no regulation either side of the border ? Is that true ?


There are no procedures at the border.



There are procedures both sides of the border of course. Just not exactly at it ....


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 6:57 pm 
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shereblue wrote:
Have watched Wasps at Sudbury and Wycombe but missed out the Loftus Road variant. West of Londinium or West Londinium?

Nostalgia aside, they seem to be filling a gap in the market at Coventry

Coventry is a bit inconvenient for me. Maybe when my lad is old enough and shows an interest we can make a day of it.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 6:58 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
shereblue wrote:
Have watched Wasps at Sudbury and Wycombe but missed out the Loftus Road variant. West of Londinium or West Londinium?

Nostalgia aside, they seem to be filling a gap in the market at Coventry

Coventry is a bit inconvenient for me. Maybe when my lad is old enough and shows an interest we can make a day of it.



He will certainly be more appreciative of where he lives.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 7:05 pm 
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Petej wrote:
Weirdly I don't hate the region I grew up in and worked in and I certainly don't want them to lose out. I wish Boris, Gove, Farage, the dirty digger, Lord rothermere and dirty des the porn Baron could be executed if brexit makes those regions poorer because many people did believe the shit they spouted and published.

I don't know what the future holds but it's interesting that the majority of people who voted leave did so despite acknowledging it would make them poorer. The Government made damn sure everyone knew that a vote to leave would mean a leap into the abyss but they did so despite all that. There's nowt as queer as folk.

As an aside I did read a study recently which discussed how the midlands had lost it's small tool industry as a result of the big car manufacturers moving this kind of production to the continent. Ultimately I think that the big winners in EU membership were us folk in the south east which is why most of my neighbours are as glum as sam shark.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 7:36 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Leinster in London wrote:

There are no procedures at the border.



There are procedures both sides of the border of course. Just not exactly at it ....


Yep, and that's the bit that is under discussion.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 7:45 pm 
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Leinster in London wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Leinster in London wrote:

There are no procedures at the border.



There are procedures both sides of the border of course. Just not exactly at it ....


Yep, and that's the bit that is under discussion.



Is a tarif more difficult than VAT or duty to process ?


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 9:58 pm 
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Petej wrote:
Gospel wrote:
Petej wrote:
Gospel wrote:
Petej wrote:
As you already know a lot of those exports are from more deprived regions of the UK that voted for Brexit (north east and west Midlands). So I guess they would regard any negative from Brexit as worth the cost.

I rather suspect they would like their elected government to promote alternative trade agreements. Since when did you care about Brexit voters? You think they're thick scum.

Yep hate them all. You really seem to know the north and Midlands well how did you end up supporting wasps?

I'm from London. I'm just here bullshitting like the rest of you.

Weirdly I don't hate the region I grew up in and worked in and I certainly don't want them to lose out. I wish Boris, Gove, Farage, the dirty digger, Lord rothermere and dirty des the porn Baron could be executed if brexit makes those regions poorer because many people did believe the shit they spouted and published.

FFS, this victimhood schtick is wearing thin.


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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 1:11 pm 
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Oh dear May is contemplating creating a few more Tory Peers after the Brexit humiliations the egovt has suffered in the Lords.
What a useless twat she is.


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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 1:17 pm 
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And the EU is going to tell May that she either stays in both the customs union and single market until a solution the Irish border is found or negotiations cease.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-eu-te ... eal-2018-5


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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 1:25 pm 
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camroc1 wrote:
And the EU is going to tell May that she either stays in both the customs union and single market until a solution the Irish border is found or negotiations cease.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-eu-te ... eal-2018-5



It's an outcome that will eventually be very dangerous for the UK and eventually Europe. If negotiations cease then we still leave both though next year so it's a silly threat.

Also the article contains this Buffett of pure pure bullshit,

Quote:
Brussels figures are reportedly privately joking that the "max-fac" model could take 65 years to put together, meaning Britain could be in transition until the back-end of the 21st century.



May has f ucked this up so badly, but I hope it means we avoid Corbyn led governemnt and eventually we get to leave.


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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 1:34 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
And the EU is going to tell May that she either stays in both the customs union and single market until a solution the Irish border is found or negotiations cease.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-eu-te ... eal-2018-5



It's an outcome that will eventually be very dangerous for the UK and eventually Europe. If negotiations cease then we still leave both though next year so it's a silly threat.

The EU were tin-eared to Cameron's pleas as they were so damn sure we'd vote to remain. They've learned nothing from that experience. Once again they are betting everything on the UK bending to their demands because the alternative is unthinkable - the UK crashing out without a deal.


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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 1:34 pm 
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I see that Italian thing now- a coalition of eurosceptics?


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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 1:37 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
May has f ucked this up so badly, but I hope it means we avoid Corbyn led governemnt and eventually we get to leave.

I do wonder what kind of Brexit May would have forced through had she a big enough majority. The issues over the Irish border wouldn't be any different for example.


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