I have no idea why you are BEE registered, but most companies I work with here are not .

Who is suppressing who? and how?

If they lose support, we'll know where it's gone, by which of the smaller parties grow and which don't. Well also know if people just stop voting at all if those parties don't grow.

People have over thought this "grow the party get black voters" thing. They need to differentiate from the ANC, they need to be setting out a position that doesn't amount to "we're also the ANC". If ANC policies are the best I can just vote for the ANC.

I think they've underestimated "Afriforum fluffers" (Afriforum is actually the same size or bigger than DA, but Afriforum isn't dependent election results). If they just throw minority voters under the bus, that's circa 3 million votes gone. A massive hole to fill. It would be such a body blow it would end them. I don't expect them to lose them this election, but they need to sort their shit out before it's too late, these changes happen slowly.

Agree they need to differentiate between themselves and the ANC, however, I feel that you are forgetting the Zondo commission and other inquiries into corruption essentially by ANC bigwigs.

I have no idea of the impact that this will have on rural voting, if any, but if your average voter is taking any notice at all, then the ANC must lose support. The danger is that the support goes to the EFF, but in view of the revelations concerning the VBS, that may not be (hopefully) the direction voters go.

Just to add that I feel that Afriforum is not part of the solution, but part of the problem.

Theirs is a very narrow agenda which is quite confrontational and very much one side of the racial divide, so they cannot expand very much past their current base (which must be experiencing some strain due to immigration of whites).

What is the consensus on BEE - has it been a complete failure so far, or are their signs of the policy actually working?

Zondo makes it look like the ANC is cleaning up, they're not because no one is in jail. But it plays out as a positive for Ramaphosa.

It's large and growing. Probably around 5% of whites are members now (sometimes a family are members, but only the father is a paid up member). It's quite an extensive network now, that grew from the Solidarity trade union. The Afriforum NGO (which is said to be the largest African NGO) is just one arm of it. The people behind it aren't stupid. Not really true they only focus on whites, they've taken up legal cases on behalf of a broader range than that.

Doesn't really matter if you think it's a positive or negative. Like the EFF it's a fact. The problem for the DA is it's targeting their entire base, and making an environment quite hostile to the stuff the DA are saying.

Whether the Zondo commission is a "show trial" (which I personally doubt), the fact is that the information on how many ANC bigwigs were bribed and part of corrupt practices is being aired and is out in the open.

Even if nobody is prosecuted (which I doubt), this will have tainted the ANC.

The DA will also have lost coloured supporters to de Lille, so if you're correct and they are losing whites to Afriforum, then it makes even more sense to broaden the base.

I think this is where the DA have got it wrong, and probably where the EFF and Afriforum and others have got it right. This isn't a game being played under normal rules. It's basically impossible to beat the ANC at national level, everyone reading this could easily go their entire lives and never see it beaten.

You say "broaden the base", what do you think the DA has been trying to do? It hasn't worked because people just don't care/aren't interested. Most people love the ANC, and that's who they vote for. What the DA does is almost irrelevant. It's not a game being played under normal rules, so Zondo helps the ANC which is now polling very well.

If the DA throw their actual supporters under a bus it's going to harm them and not help "broaden" anything. They're also going to look profoundly untrustworthy, as who is going to be under the bus next.

The DA need the calm the fudge down, understand they're getting nowhere near the presidency for at least another decade. And make some actual policies that work and are their own, not parrot ANC shit. If they can't do that, they'll fail and disappear.

I won’t be surprised if the ANC actually gains support this time around.

This is the thing. The DA used to be a Classical Liberal party but started drifting on principles in order to gain votes; betraying ideological voters.

A political party (like a business) at some point needs to make a decision; represent their ideology and grow market share by convincing voters that their ideology is the best on offer; not perfect, but the best...or change your principles and business model; alienating your old base but attracting a new one that might have vastly different expectations.

They've gone for the latter in a desperate bid to gain power; and it will backfire come the next elections. They are going to lose their traditional votes to the FF+ and ACDP and they are not going to get the take-up from disgruntled ANC voters that they were hoping for. It will be interesting to see if Maimane is austed after the failure and if the DA will course correct or double down.

Oh, by all means, please state your superior insights into the Zondo commission. Or is it the NPA's new NDPP who arouses your scepticism?

As far as I'm concerned, the thing that the DA should push is Good Governance.

Clearly the ANC are tainted by Zuma's years, and the DA should be making the most of this, but instead they are fighting amongst themselves.

I tend to agree that the DA will probably not perform as well as they did in 2016, but I would say that this is more likely due to infighting and an inability to present a unified front coupled with the loss of de Lille's supporters in the Cape.

BEE is very much part of the business environment now and I very much doubt that committing to scrap it will get them more votes than it will lose them.

People don't respond to that. It's a loser from the get go.

Voters are energised by big, bold policy ideas.

Good governance is expected to be a given and you can only use it in a negative way to tar and feather the incumbent. It makes you look petty and weak won't convince a prospective voter in a soundbite. Given enough one-on-one interaction you can explain how better managed schools and infrastructure and business climate will improve somebody's life, but it is a long discussion with nuance. It doesn't fit on an election poster or newspaper headline or tweet.



The infighting isn't helping, but that is because they are ideologically confused. The leadership isn't united because they don't really know how they are going to get where they want to go, so they are shotgunning. They have tried this in the past and they are just not good enough at negative campaigning. Their messaging as a party has become sloppy and disjointed ever since they let Gareth van Onselen go because he was calling this shit out 8 years ago. They should focus on shaming the ANC and EFF leaders, while at the same time making 100% sure their own house is in order.

"Julius is wearing 3 RDP houses on his wrist...Zuma is living in 3000 RDP houses...etc"
"The Guptas stole free University education for this generation and the ANC were complicit"

That should be the narrative.

Then the big, vague promises.

We will do it better. Corrupt officials will go to jail; etc etc.



They should avoid the wedge issues like BEE as much as possible. Don't promise to eliminate it, don't promise to make it more pervasive. Rather focus on the fact that the ANC hasn't been able to make it work for anybody other than themselves and political elite. This is where their governance track record should be used as a strength but ONLY when pushed to elaborate on the matter. From a general perspective they should just campaign on managing and implementing it "better". White voters have comfort that it won't get worse, black voters have a hope that it will finally start to benefit them...somehow. Embarrassing headline / soundbite / tweet averted.

VERY WELL PUT

The DA always had two strands of liberalism, the social liberals and the classical liberals. Traditionally classical liberals were the weaker of the two. But it's a bit pointless getting caught up in it, in practice it ends up much the same. In modern times what has happened to the Unis and English speaking media (both big liberal institutions historically) has probably hurt the DA. New institution building hasn't happened from SA liberals, it's almost all eggs in the DA basket and not much else (total opposite to the Solidarity/Afriforum crowd).

I think seeing it as a business, is where they're going wrong. It's not just a marketing exercise, people invest their identities into a political party. It's not like a rebrand of a product and targeting a new market or whatever. It looks very dodgy if a political party starts flip flopping, and endorsing the policies of other parties, it loses trust. Politics is far closer to religion or a sports team, than selling sports clothing or something.

I'm expecting the DA to take a hit, not a big one though. Things typically change slowly in politics (a bonus for the DA is there's no obvious alternative to vote for, it's a measure of how terrible they've been anyone is even contemplating it). This slowness of change, tends to make the foolish more complacent than they should be.

If the DA lose anything at all to other parties, it's the thin end of the wedge and handing momentum over to those parties. The state the DA is in, I'm not even sure they will recognise it as such. Supporting BEE is saying goodbye to the vast majority of their current voters long term, the most basic rule of voting, is turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They've put themselves into this really shit position, because they've become trapped by ANC policy. They're so muddled they've forgotten what the point of an opposition is.

I agree.

Agreed. I am a disillusioned old Prog. I actually dont want to vote for the DA this year but I dont seem to have a choice. There are no other real options and the last thing I want is more ANC corruption in the W/Cape. I would love to give my vote to someone else to send the DA a message of how unhappy I am. Maimane is the only reason I can find to justify voting for the DA. My biggest fear is that the EFF are going to surprise and take a lot of the new /young voters and the DA and ANC will stagnate.

I don't vote on habit...I vote for what appeals to me....ANC voters vote against the Groot Gevaar and for " free stuff "...not good governance

You may be right.

However, I do think that Good Governance is more of an issue than you think: I just wish it was better accentuated.

Here in Craighall Park we have just had the entire street re-tarred over 4 or 5 months. It was, admittedly pretty ropey with pervasive potholes, but it was certainly drivable. I would have preferred for the millions spent to have been used in Alex or somewhere where it would have been better appreciated.

On the other hand, under the previous ANC, the local hockey astro in Randburg was due to be refurbished and, ironically, the project was cancelled by the incoming DA coalition.

I just feel that, under the DA, spending should be targeted at benefiting the majority, and they need to do this consistently to get the message across.

I really do feel that the biggest problem for the DA (apart from their propensity to discharge both barrels into their feet) is that the ANC find it so easy to label them as the direct descendants of the National Party.

(Sorry, if the above sounds disjointed - trying to do some work...)

I'm in a similar boat; except that I really dislike Maimane. I know who I won't vote for but that's as far as I have gotten

I'll probably wait for number 99 to make my decision. I really want to send the DA a message, but I also don't want to hurt them in the long run as don't think our political system will ever become healthy unless we establish a culture of peaceful transitions of power on all levels of government. It's a tricky proposition chasing that lofty goal whilst not shooting yourself in the foot along the way.

They are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Rich (predominantly white) suburbs pay the majority of the rates and taxes used to manage and improve infrastructure. If they neglect those areas their base will abandon them; and if they don't show tangible results in the poor (predominantly black and coloured) areas they are accused of not caring and not delivering on election promises.


The DA have actually done a terrible job at effectively communicating their successes. I'm sure many people in the richer suburbs feel the same way, and the best way to keep them happy (other than keeping their infrastructure pristine) is to actually SHOW them how and where their tax contributions have been used in poorer areas.

I know that the City of Cape Town has actually given away swathes of land deeds along with the houses that were built on them; but those are 1 day news stories and then quickly forgotten; which is a massive shame.

Maybe so, but they also generally understand the need to spend disproportionately on poorer areas.


Agreed. and this is the issue. The DA generally are better at good governance and this needs to be the clear blue water (to borrow from Thatcher) between them and the ANC.

ANC will grow
Both the DA and EFF will drop.
The black middle class who voted for the DA against Zuma will vote ANC. The white middle class will not vote DA as they have gone down the road of BEE and land expropriation.
Those who voted EFF will go back to the ANC now that they have approved the land expropriation etc.

DA/Cope/FF+/ACDP are the four that have never supported expropriation without compensation. IFP did at first, then seemed to decide it was an ANC con job, so now also don't.

All the other parties support expropriation without compensation.

Afriforum is not a part of the problem, it is the main group working to protect whites from the inevitable EWC. It's only a problem if you support EWC.

Stem asb net reg.

Wou jy se

Afriforums protects whites and the EFF protects blacks. That is the narrow minded view that the supported have of these two organisations, and they have no time to see a broader picture. EFF and Afriforum are one in the same, they just swap the words white and black in their individual statements. Both aim to fight racism with racism and use fear mongering and populism to gather support.

(to many to quote) I have also been pissed off by the DA over the past year, especially Johan Steenhuizen trying to beat the EFF in their game in disrupting Parliament with idiotic statements, and also their broad ranging misguided statements from colonialism to BEE. However, I travel to the Western Cape regularly for work it is apparent that there is a world of difference between a DA government and a ANC government. Traveling from Bloemfontein to Cape Town is like traveling from Mogadisu to New York.

I cant see any other party that has the capacity and competence to change the current situation in South Africa (unless Ramaposa gets rid of the Magasule gang after the election), and don't see how individual DA comments or controversial policy can change that.

You guys have a democratic right to vote for whom ever, but EFF will be disastrous, FF+ is a fart in the wind (you cant fix potholes with Afrikaans and religion) and COPE is a party headed by black man that is trying to get votes from Afrikaner Nationalist (Do you guys really think Steve Hofmeyer will vote for Lekota )

Anyhoo, rather look at the broader picture, rather than focusing on the rhetoric.

Complete kak. When has an Afriforum member said anything even close to the constant 'kill all the whites' rhetoric that comes out of many EFF top people's mouths.

I said racism not a call for genocide. Please watch your language.

The problem with this argument. Is it that is has been true for years and years, it hasn't changed many minds (it also ignores some stuff regarding De Lille). Freestate is one of the strongest ANC provinces, 70% ANC even under Zuma, the ANC aren't going to lose nationally either.

This is why principles and policies do actually matter.

Banging on about size will not work, especially with DA supporters, some of us remember when the DA was a nothing party.

If none of these opposition parties are going to win, and the DA isn't either. And the ANC don't have the easy target of JZ anymore. Then what parties actually stand for, their actual principles, starts to matter. This is exactly how the DA became the official opposition, the official opposition at the time stopped standing for anything other than "we do services better than the ANC" and became an easy target.

The EFF have some principles, they're shit but they're there. The EFF almost beat the DA in Freestate and Mpumalanga last time, and actually did beat the DA in Limpopo and North West. That's what standing for something and having some principles can do, service delivery and their track record has no input into their platform at all, their supporters do not care about it. The DA has forgotten about what politics is about, and now just lists the amount of toilets they've built etc.

I can't see how the DA are going to grow. Could easily lose to the EFF in four provinces.

Thanks.

That saves me quite a bit.

Look, the DA has been their own worst enemy in terms off of PR and even trying to portray unity is its ranks, however, I think they will still pack a punch in this year, growing their base. I think issues like load shedding and suburban service delivery will play a big part in how choose to vote, especially in the middle class and educated youth (I know they have a huge EFF following, but think that's only an illusion created by twitter).

I at one stage last year was really conflicted if I wanted to vote DA (I did not have a alternative). But, if I have to choose a party that will probably better the situation in the country, for the people and for me, the DA is the only option and I think many other South Africans will also see that. It's about a good government track record. That's all.

I predict 30%

There's no way chief. This is the most disorientated I've ever seen them. Listing stuff about corruption, or potholes filled, or toilets built, isn't politics and clearly not what most vote on.

The EFF have ranted about nationalising everything for years. The DA never really explained in simple terms why that's bad. Never released a pamphlet explaining why it's bad and what they would do. They just seem to think people can work it all out on their own, and everyone knows what they stand for. They've had an open goal for 5 years and ignored it. They just sat and watched as the EFF grew.

They're going to be doing really well to get the 22% they got last time. Could easily go below 20% if their campaign is limp. 30% isn't possible this election.

There's a lot in what you say, particularly when referring to open goals (which, Draad has referred to already; in fact I think we all have).

It's difficult to predict what the electorate will do, but I suspect that the ANC cannot count on continued loyalty as the party of liberation.