The definitive rugby union forum. Talk to fans from around the world about your favourite team
https://forum.planetrugby.com/
If you are in Jo'burg, they are very common.Wilson's Toffee wrote:Any Saffers feel the earth tremors, about 30 minutes ago ?
houtkabouter wrote:I don't think anything is going to happen about this. People dont seem to have the energy.
Fangle wrote:If you are in Jo'burg, they are very common.Wilson's Toffee wrote:Any Saffers feel the earth tremors, about 30 minutes ago ?
it's a pity because people protesting could be a good thing.troglodiet wrote:houtkabouter wrote:I don't think anything is going to happen about this. People dont seem to have the energy.
My feelings exactly.
Today was "Black Monday": all Saffas were supposed to wear black to show their anger at what has happened. Not many people did it - myself included. Apart from being able to upload photos of you in black on Facebook, what difference will it make?
Then off course there's this big thing planned for Friday. Marches all over the country, every town and city. My bet is that at most 2,000 people will show up for the biggest one. And Zuma will laugh it off.
It will all boil down to get another vote of no confidence by parliament. Lots of expectations that some ANC MPs will vote with the opposition. It won't happen. ANC will vote to keep JZ in power, because that's what the ANC tells them to do. JZ will survive yet again. And giggle.
And we'll just get used to the new way of living.
I've never been part of the "we're about to become another Zimbabwe" crowd. I'm not so sure about my feelings on this anymore.
as long as it doesn't get out of hand as so many protests tend to do these days.houtkabouter wrote:it's a pity because people protesting could be a good thing.troglodiet wrote:houtkabouter wrote:I don't think anything is going to happen about this. People dont seem to have the energy.
My feelings exactly.
Today was "Black Monday": all Saffas were supposed to wear black to show their anger at what has happened. Not many people did it - myself included. Apart from being able to upload photos of you in black on Facebook, what difference will it make?
Then off course there's this big thing planned for Friday. Marches all over the country, every town and city. My bet is that at most 2,000 people will show up for the biggest one. And Zuma will laugh it off.
It will all boil down to get another vote of no confidence by parliament. Lots of expectations that some ANC MPs will vote with the opposition. It won't happen. ANC will vote to keep JZ in power, because that's what the ANC tells them to do. JZ will survive yet again. And giggle.
And we'll just get used to the new way of living.
I've never been part of the "we're about to become another Zimbabwe" crowd. I'm not so sure about my feelings on this anymore.
houtkabouter wrote:it's a pity because people protesting could be a good thing.troglodiet wrote:houtkabouter wrote:I don't think anything is going to happen about this. People dont seem to have the energy.
My feelings exactly.
Today was "Black Monday": all Saffas were supposed to wear black to show their anger at what has happened. Not many people did it - myself included. Apart from being able to upload photos of you in black on Facebook, what difference will it make?
Then off course there's this big thing planned for Friday. Marches all over the country, every town and city. My bet is that at most 2,000 people will show up for the biggest one. And Zuma will laugh it off.
It will all boil down to get another vote of no confidence by parliament. Lots of expectations that some ANC MPs will vote with the opposition. It won't happen. ANC will vote to keep JZ in power, because that's what the ANC tells them to do. JZ will survive yet again. And giggle.
And we'll just get used to the new way of living.
I've never been part of the "we're about to become another Zimbabwe" crowd. I'm not so sure about my feelings on this anymore.
assfly wrote:I disagree. Just because things aren't changing immediately, doesn't mean they're not changing.
The events in South Africa in the last few days, and hours, are unprecedented. From what I've been reading and hearing, I've never seen the country so angry. All the big players are still digesting events, such as the SACP, Cosatu, the DA, an nobody is quite ready to make drastic decisions. Which is a shame, as I feel like now the time for a natural leader to take control of events. People seem to be rallying behind Gordan, but I'm not sure if he's the person to lead us.
The ANC is showing a massive split like never before, even the ANC pr machine can't hide the fracture. There is no way that there will be a return to business after this.
I'd personally like to see the DA making the most of the situation, but they appear to have lost their 'big match temperament' and seem more interested in punishing Zille than making the most of this. If I was Maimane I would be all over the papers and TV like never before, but this is another problem I think he has to address.
Let's see what comes of the marches. I'm not expecting much, as I think we have to pin our hopes on the motion of no confidence that is being processed, which is where I suspect most politicians are spending their time debating behind closed doors. That's our best chance of change, and it's never been closer to happening than today.
Don't let the facts get in the way of your narrative, will you?saffer13 wrote:You've always been a bit of an ANC apologist though rinki.
I guess Zuma gave him a very clear job description.Fikile Mbalula wrote:And those who embark on violent protests must stop. If they don’t, we’ll stop them because the Constitution doesn’t say we must stop people who are protesting.
We must educate our people because I don’t want another Marikana here where police opened fire and people died. People must understand that protesting doesn’t mean to destroy property of the democratic state.
The quake's epicentre was in Botswana-which may seem like the ocean but it is not- central/west of the CKGR. Bloody big quake for somewhere as geologically stable a base as the kalahari craton.troglodiet wrote:Fangle wrote:If you are in Jo'burg, they are very common.Wilson's Toffee wrote:Any Saffers feel the earth tremors, about 30 minutes ago ?
2 quakes.
First on the West Rand due to mining activities. Nothing new.
Then a second, actually just tremors not a quake, felt in Durban and Cape Town, from an earth quake somewhere in the ocean.
Didn't feel anything here. But having grown up in Springs during the height of their mining activities there, I guess I'm too used to small little quakes.
Fracking?echo wrote:The quake's epicentre was in Botswana-which may seem like the ocean but it is not- central/west of the CKGR. Bloody big quake for somewhere as geologically stable a base as the kalahari craton.troglodiet wrote:Fangle wrote:If you are in Jo'burg, they are very common.Wilson's Toffee wrote:Any Saffers feel the earth tremors, about 30 minutes ago ?
2 quakes.
First on the West Rand due to mining activities. Nothing new.
Then a second, actually just tremors not a quake, felt in Durban and Cape Town, from an earth quake somewhere in the ocean.
Didn't feel anything here. But having grown up in Springs during the height of their mining activities there, I guess I'm too used to small little quakes.
echo wrote:The quake's epicentre was in Botswana-which may seem like the ocean but it is not- central/west of the CKGR. Bloody big quake for somewhere as geologically stable a base as the kalahari craton.troglodiet wrote:Fangle wrote:If you are in Jo'burg, they are very common.Wilson's Toffee wrote:Any Saffers feel the earth tremors, about 30 minutes ago ?
2 quakes.
First on the West Rand due to mining activities. Nothing new.
Then a second, actually just tremors not a quake, felt in Durban and Cape Town, from an earth quake somewhere in the ocean.
Didn't feel anything here. But having grown up in Springs during the height of their mining activities there, I guess I'm too used to small little quakes.
The sad ironing is that the biggest crook has the best constitution to protect him and his fellow gangsters.Rinkals wrote:Bad news.
It looks like Zuma has managed to win this round.
The Rand has started it's free fall.
I can't see it ending here, though.
Not sure why anyone would be surprised.Rinkals wrote:Bad news.
It looks like Zuma has managed to win this round.
The Rand has started it's free fall.
I can't see it ending here, though.
Chilli wrote:JZ was head of the ANC Intelligence branch for years. He has dirt on everyone. The man is shrewd.
Rinkals wrote:Bad news.
It looks like Zuma has managed to win this round.
The Rand has started it's free fall.
I can't see it ending here, though.
Called it.rabble wrote:The only way to get rid of Zuma if for the ANC to do it;
And there's no way they'll do the right thing.
Could the end result for Zuma be he is removed by an ANC meeting as Mbeki was?assfly wrote:I disagree. Just because things aren't changing immediately, doesn't mean they're not changing.
The events in South Africa in the last few days, and hours, are unprecedented. From what I've been reading and hearing, I've never seen the country so angry. All the big players are still digesting events, such as the SACP, Cosatu, the DA, an nobody is quite ready to make drastic decisions. Which is a shame, as I feel like now the time for a natural leader to take control of events. People seem to be rallying behind Gordan, but I'm not sure if he's the person to lead us.
The ANC is showing a massive split like never before, even the ANC pr machine can't hide the fracture. There is no way that there will be a return to business after this.
I'd personally like to see the DA making the most of the situation, but they appear to have lost their 'big match temperament' and seem more interested in punishing Zille than making the most of this. If I was Maimane I would be all over the papers and TV like never before, but this is another problem I think he has to address.
Let's see what comes of the marches. I'm not expecting much, as I think we have to pin our hopes on the motion of no confidence that is being processed, which is where I suspect most politicians are spending their time debating behind closed doors. That's our best chance of change, and it's never been closer to happening than today.
Technically, they could, but they will be reluctant to do it again.Flyin Ryan wrote:Could the end result for Zuma be he is removed by an ANC meeting as Mbeki was?assfly wrote:I disagree. Just because things aren't changing immediately, doesn't mean they're not changing.
The events in South Africa in the last few days, and hours, are unprecedented. From what I've been reading and hearing, I've never seen the country so angry. All the big players are still digesting events, such as the SACP, Cosatu, the DA, an nobody is quite ready to make drastic decisions. Which is a shame, as I feel like now the time for a natural leader to take control of events. People seem to be rallying behind Gordan, but I'm not sure if he's the person to lead us.
The ANC is showing a massive split like never before, even the ANC pr machine can't hide the fracture. There is no way that there will be a return to business after this.
I'd personally like to see the DA making the most of the situation, but they appear to have lost their 'big match temperament' and seem more interested in punishing Zille than making the most of this. If I was Maimane I would be all over the papers and TV like never before, but this is another problem I think he has to address.
Let's see what comes of the marches. I'm not expecting much, as I think we have to pin our hopes on the motion of no confidence that is being processed, which is where I suspect most politicians are spending their time debating behind closed doors. That's our best chance of change, and it's never been closer to happening than today.
Well, what's the practical endgame then? If you don't expect the ANC to remove him in a party conference, and you think a parliamentary vote of no confidence by the minority would not work, you're thinking the guy will just decide to resign on his own accord?Rinkals wrote:Technically, they could, but they will be reluctant to do it again.Flyin Ryan wrote:Could the end result for Zuma be he is removed by an ANC meeting as Mbeki was?assfly wrote:I disagree. Just because things aren't changing immediately, doesn't mean they're not changing.
The events in South Africa in the last few days, and hours, are unprecedented. From what I've been reading and hearing, I've never seen the country so angry. All the big players are still digesting events, such as the SACP, Cosatu, the DA, an nobody is quite ready to make drastic decisions. Which is a shame, as I feel like now the time for a natural leader to take control of events. People seem to be rallying behind Gordan, but I'm not sure if he's the person to lead us.
The ANC is showing a massive split like never before, even the ANC pr machine can't hide the fracture. There is no way that there will be a return to business after this.
I'd personally like to see the DA making the most of the situation, but they appear to have lost their 'big match temperament' and seem more interested in punishing Zille than making the most of this. If I was Maimane I would be all over the papers and TV like never before, but this is another problem I think he has to address.
Let's see what comes of the marches. I'm not expecting much, as I think we have to pin our hopes on the motion of no confidence that is being processed, which is where I suspect most politicians are spending their time debating behind closed doors. That's our best chance of change, and it's never been closer to happening than today.
If ever a President deserved a recall, it's Zuma.
What will happen is that the voices against him will be louder and louder to the point where it will become untenable.
I don't think we can expect a no-confidence debate to succeed, but I don't think there'll be too many to speak in support of Zuma.
Was an astonishing 6.5 (!!!!)- but with little impact other than guttural rumbling- the benefit of the Kalahari craton being covered by a sand overburden several hundred metres thick in some places. another quake of 5 just after midnight.troglodiet wrote:echo wrote:The quake's epicentre was in Botswana-which may seem like the ocean but it is not- central/west of the CKGR. Bloody big quake for somewhere as geologically stable a base as the kalahari craton.troglodiet wrote:Fangle wrote:If you are in Jo'burg, they are very common.Wilson's Toffee wrote:Any Saffers feel the earth tremors, about 30 minutes ago ?
2 quakes.
First on the West Rand due to mining activities. Nothing new.
Then a second, actually just tremors not a quake, felt in Durban and Cape Town, from an earth quake somewhere in the ocean.
Didn't feel anything here. But having grown up in Springs during the height of their mining activities there, I guess I'm too used to small little quakes.
My apologies.
First reported to have had its epicenter somewhere of the coast North of Madagascar.
Either updated or there might have been 2 maybe? Either way, I didn't see the reports (updates?) of the epicenter being in Botswana.
Weird that a quake in Botswana was felt in Durban and Cape Town though.
I could be wrong but I don't think Mbeki had his claws into as many people as Zuma does.Flyin Ryan wrote:Could the end result for Zuma be he is removed by an ANC meeting as Mbeki was?assfly wrote:I disagree. Just because things aren't changing immediately, doesn't mean they're not changing.
The events in South Africa in the last few days, and hours, are unprecedented. From what I've been reading and hearing, I've never seen the country so angry. All the big players are still digesting events, such as the SACP, Cosatu, the DA, an nobody is quite ready to make drastic decisions. Which is a shame, as I feel like now the time for a natural leader to take control of events. People seem to be rallying behind Gordan, but I'm not sure if he's the person to lead us.
The ANC is showing a massive split like never before, even the ANC pr machine can't hide the fracture. There is no way that there will be a return to business after this.
I'd personally like to see the DA making the most of the situation, but they appear to have lost their 'big match temperament' and seem more interested in punishing Zille than making the most of this. If I was Maimane I would be all over the papers and TV like never before, but this is another problem I think he has to address.
Let's see what comes of the marches. I'm not expecting much, as I think we have to pin our hopes on the motion of no confidence that is being processed, which is where I suspect most politicians are spending their time debating behind closed doors. That's our best chance of change, and it's never been closer to happening than today.
Ah, yes, he's due to step down at the end of the year, I think, which is the next party conference, but he won't go before then.Flyin Ryan wrote:Well, what's the practical endgame then? If you don't expect the ANC to remove him in a party conference, and you think a parliamentary vote of no confidence by the minority would not work, you're thinking the guy will just decide to resign on his own accord?Rinkals wrote:Technically, they could, but they will be reluctant to do it again.Flyin Ryan wrote:Could the end result for Zuma be he is removed by an ANC meeting as Mbeki was?assfly wrote:I disagree. Just because things aren't changing immediately, doesn't mean they're not changing.
The events in South Africa in the last few days, and hours, are unprecedented. From what I've been reading and hearing, I've never seen the country so angry. All the big players are still digesting events, such as the SACP, Cosatu, the DA, an nobody is quite ready to make drastic decisions. Which is a shame, as I feel like now the time for a natural leader to take control of events. People seem to be rallying behind Gordan, but I'm not sure if he's the person to lead us.
The ANC is showing a massive split like never before, even the ANC pr machine can't hide the fracture. There is no way that there will be a return to business after this.
I'd personally like to see the DA making the most of the situation, but they appear to have lost their 'big match temperament' and seem more interested in punishing Zille than making the most of this. If I was Maimane I would be all over the papers and TV like never before, but this is another problem I think he has to address.
Let's see what comes of the marches. I'm not expecting much, as I think we have to pin our hopes on the motion of no confidence that is being processed, which is where I suspect most politicians are spending their time debating behind closed doors. That's our best chance of change, and it's never been closer to happening than today.
If ever a President deserved a recall, it's Zuma.
What will happen is that the voices against him will be louder and louder to the point where it will become untenable.
I don't think we can expect a no-confidence debate to succeed, but I don't think there'll be too many to speak in support of Zuma.
Defend him from what exactly?'We'll defend Zuma with our lives‚' vow KZN MK vets - More than 600 "combat-ready" military veterans will be sent to Johannesburg from KwaZulu-Natal to defend President Jacob Zuma.
Even with Moody's saying it will review SA only in the next month or so, the country will likely to be downgraded by all rating agencies, warns an economist.
THere is a planned march on Friday(it was originally planned to be to Luthuli House, but the ANCYL have promised to attack the marchers with sjamboks).saffer13 wrote:Defend him from what exactly?'We'll defend Zuma with our lives‚' vow KZN MK vets - More than 600 "combat-ready" military veterans will be sent to Johannesburg from KwaZulu-Natal to defend President Jacob Zuma.
I don't think it's quite like that.saffer13 wrote:I could be wrong but I don't think Mbeki had his claws into as many people as Zuma does.Flyin Ryan wrote: Could the end result for Zuma be he is removed by an ANC meeting as Mbeki was?
LinkAnalysis: A closer look at the ANC NWC’s statement reveals not so Zuma-friendly side
After four days of late-night announcements, angry press conferences, furious statements, and leaked speeches, it was time for the first major ANC structure to meet to discuss President Jacob Zuma, and the reaction to his factional reshuffle and removal of Pravin Gordhan from the Finance Ministry. In the end, the National Working Committee, surprising no one, simply resolved to “discuss” with Cosatu and the SACP their calls for Zuma to leave. At first glance it looks almost as if nothing has changed, that Zuma is still the MacDaddy of our politics, and the game goes on the same way as it has for many years. But look a little deeper, and it’s possible that the rules of the game have actually changed quite dramatically. By STEPHEN GROOTES.
The ANC is nothing if not predictable. Zuma does something. There is righteous fury and furious anger. Society gets moving, people mutter darkly about Parliament passing a vote of no confidence. After a climax of press conferences, eventually a top ANC structure meets and glosses over it all.
Zuma stays on to giggle another day.
On the face of it, that is exactly what has happened here. There had been huge momentum building up, from Friday night’s dramatic statement by the SACP that Zuma must be removed from office, through to Cosatu's press conference on Monday that basically agreed with the communists. This was all new in our politics. It smelt, to some at least, as if change was in the air, that this momentum was irresistible, until it came into close personal combat with the immovable rock that is Zuma’s built-in majority on the NWC.
The NWC’s statement seems particularly limp-wristed. For many people the only issue that mattered was whether it would suggest an early National Executive Committee meeting to discuss removing Zuma from office. And all it said on that was that “the officials and the members of the NEC must continue to engage with Cosatu, SACP and organs of civil society on this matter”.
Still, to use the removal of Zuma as the only yardstick is misleading. Considering that the ANC has never in its history removed a sitting leader from the presidency (Mbeki was obviously a former leader of the ANC by the time he was removed), it is difficult to consider that not achieving something that has never happened before is a failure.
In all of what is happening around us it can be important to remember this; Gwede Mantashe, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and ANC Treasurer Zweli Mkhize would have known on Friday, when they started to criticise the process followed in the reshuffle, that Zuma would always be safe in the NWC. They would have known the maths of the ANC structures better than almost anyone (the only other possible “one” is, of course, Zuma himself). But despite knowing all of that, they went ahead and made their criticism public anyway. Which means they knew a defeat was coming in this structure.
So then, if that is the case, why did they go public in the first place?
One could argue that it was out of sheer principle. But they didn’t do this during Nkandla, or the State of Capture report, so we can probably agree that the HMS Principle sailed a long time ago. It could be possible, perhaps, that they feel the NWC was never going to be the right structure for this, and actually they have to wait for another structure to have the real fight. Which means that it is the NEC that is really going to matter. Certainly the maths is harder to determine there, and it seems to be less completely overwhelmingly in favour of Zuma than it was, say, two years ago.
There is another possibility: that Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize are actually fighting, not to remove Zuma, but the leadership contest. Surely that is the most important thing, in the longer term, for them, the ANC, and every South African. Perhaps, like a boxer who has to face an opponent over a full 15 rounds, it helps now to reveal their weaknesses, their true character if you like, while doing as much damage as you can in the earlier rounds, even though you’ll take some punishment in the first place.
If that is the strategy, they may have actually have been more successful than at first it seemed.
Even in the actual statement of the NWC, the words agreed to by the people in the room, there is a repudiation of what Zuma has said, an actual refusal to buy his version of events. Much has been made of the claim by Zuma to have an “intelligence report” suggesting that Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas were enlisting the aid of international bankers in their tussle with Zuma. Mantashe, representing the NWC, states that they agree the relationship between Zuma and Gordhan had broken down irretrievably. But the NWC then goes on to say:
“The issue of the intelligence report complicated the matter, creating a lot of unhappiness. This was consequently presented as the only reason for his removal which was unfortunate and incorrect.”
In normal times, the NWC of the ANC, with the backers of Zuma that it has, calling his version of events “unfortunate and incorrect” would be a massive shift. This is surely a public rebuke for Zuma. And this in itself must be unprecedented. In comparison, during Nkandla, the NWC didn’t go this far in its treatment of Zuma.
There is more evidence of a shift in the NWC in its explicit quotation of an ANC conference resolution around reshuffles, which states:
“The prerogative of the President, premiers and mayors to appoint and release members of the Cabinet, executive councils and mayoral committees should be exercised after consultation with the leadership of the organisation.”
In other words, this is the NWC saying, explicitly, that in this case the consultation process was not followed. Again, an unprecedented repudiation of Zuma’s version of events, in public.
And considering that it has been Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize who have been saying exactly this in public, it certainly looks like the NWC is implicitly backing their version of events.
There is also something significant in what has not been said. The NWC essentially accepted that the top six as a structure had not dealt with the reshuffle in the correct way. It did not lambaste, criticise or discipline the three members who had spoken out by name. This is important. If they were on weak ground, they would have been named and shamed; they were not. And they have not been forced to apologise either. Which means, surely, that some of what they said still stands, that it has not been undone by the force of magical politics, or mysteriously forgotten. What they did is still with us.
That alone is significant.
Of course, the NWC has taken the trouble to congratulate the new appointees, and thus, some would say, give its blessing to Zuma’s factional reshuffle. That must surely be true. But it would also be hard for the NWC not to congratulate them, it has to say something. And they are, technically at least, ANC deployees, which means they can’t go into office without the ANC’s blessing. In public at least.
We have a moment now to draw breath for the first time since last Monday morning, and to do that is to realise that the game that is afoot in our politics has changed quite significantly.
For a start, both Cosatu and the SACP have now publicly said it – they want Zuma to go. Some things cannot be put back into the donkey. They cannot unsay it now. And if they were, both organisations would split quite dramatically. This really changes the game, because both groups will be pushed by their constituencies to keep the pressure up on Zuma and the ANC. It is possible to argue that the real fight is in the ANC, and Cosatu and the SACP don’t matter that much. To an extent that’s true, but both of them have members who belong to the ANC. And they are both important as they serve as proxies; they represent different parts of the ANC through their inter-meshed political relationships. They serve as the public voice of the disaffected faction within the ANC that for various reasons can’t be quite as vociferous in public.
There is also the possibility that what is happening now around the SACP could only find its full expression in its congress later this year. Already there have been strong hints that the party’s members will vote to leave the alliance as a formal structure. If it continues to be ignored in this way, that can only further drive that dynamic, with consequences that will be far-reaching for our politics.
However, the most important change to the politics within the ANC is probably the fact that everything is now out in the open. That recording of Ramaphosa saying that a “moment of great renewal us upon us” and referring to “getting rid of greedy people, corrupt people within our ranks” cannot be removed or deleted. We, and everyone in the ANC, can now decide for ourselves what the fight is really about, and where the battle lines are. As Mantashe himself suggested in the press conference on Monday, it was an easy meeting, because everyone could be candid, that they could say what they wanted to say. This is a significant shift, because it means the entire leadership fight is now out in the open, unlike in the past. And it means we are likely to see those who support Ramaphosa speaking out in the open more often, with more freedom than they have in the past. They will know it will be harder for anyone in the ANC to take action against him. And of course, after everything that’s happened, they will have more ammunition.
While for many people, getting rid of Zuma now is the only game in town, in the longer run the leadership battle is probably going to matter more. Especially if you believe that Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma will govern the way Zuma has throughout his disastrous years. In this contest, it could be that Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize have actually shifted the ground, significantly changing the ANC’s game. DM
Except that Mbete will stand in as acting president in the case of Zumas removal.......and all those that voted against Zuma will be systematically removed as has just happened with the cabinet shuffle , strengthening the position for Zuma s ex wife.Mr. White wrote:LinkAnalysis: A closer look at the ANC NWC’s statement reveals not so Zuma-friendly side
After four days of late-night announcements, angry press conferences, furious statements, and leaked speeches, it was time for the first major ANC structure to meet to discuss President Jacob Zuma, and the reaction to his factional reshuffle and removal of Pravin Gordhan from the Finance Ministry. In the end, the National Working Committee, surprising no one, simply resolved to “discuss” with Cosatu and the SACP their calls for Zuma to leave. At first glance it looks almost as if nothing has changed, that Zuma is still the MacDaddy of our politics, and the game goes on the same way as it has for many years. But look a little deeper, and it’s possible that the rules of the game have actually changed quite dramatically. By STEPHEN GROOTES.
The ANC is nothing if not predictable. Zuma does something. There is righteous fury and furious anger. Society gets moving, people mutter darkly about Parliament passing a vote of no confidence. After a climax of press conferences, eventually a top ANC structure meets and glosses over it all.
Zuma stays on to giggle another day.
On the face of it, that is exactly what has happened here. There had been huge momentum building up, from Friday night’s dramatic statement by the SACP that Zuma must be removed from office, through to Cosatu's press conference on Monday that basically agreed with the communists. This was all new in our politics. It smelt, to some at least, as if change was in the air, that this momentum was irresistible, until it came into close personal combat with the immovable rock that is Zuma’s built-in majority on the NWC.
The NWC’s statement seems particularly limp-wristed. For many people the only issue that mattered was whether it would suggest an early National Executive Committee meeting to discuss removing Zuma from office. And all it said on that was that “the officials and the members of the NEC must continue to engage with Cosatu, SACP and organs of civil society on this matter”.
Still, to use the removal of Zuma as the only yardstick is misleading. Considering that the ANC has never in its history removed a sitting leader from the presidency (Mbeki was obviously a former leader of the ANC by the time he was removed), it is difficult to consider that not achieving something that has never happened before is a failure.
In all of what is happening around us it can be important to remember this; Gwede Mantashe, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and ANC Treasurer Zweli Mkhize would have known on Friday, when they started to criticise the process followed in the reshuffle, that Zuma would always be safe in the NWC. They would have known the maths of the ANC structures better than almost anyone (the only other possible “one” is, of course, Zuma himself). But despite knowing all of that, they went ahead and made their criticism public anyway. Which means they knew a defeat was coming in this structure.
So then, if that is the case, why did they go public in the first place?
One could argue that it was out of sheer principle. But they didn’t do this during Nkandla, or the State of Capture report, so we can probably agree that the HMS Principle sailed a long time ago. It could be possible, perhaps, that they feel the NWC was never going to be the right structure for this, and actually they have to wait for another structure to have the real fight. Which means that it is the NEC that is really going to matter. Certainly the maths is harder to determine there, and it seems to be less completely overwhelmingly in favour of Zuma than it was, say, two years ago.
There is another possibility: that Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize are actually fighting, not to remove Zuma, but the leadership contest. Surely that is the most important thing, in the longer term, for them, the ANC, and every South African. Perhaps, like a boxer who has to face an opponent over a full 15 rounds, it helps now to reveal their weaknesses, their true character if you like, while doing as much damage as you can in the earlier rounds, even though you’ll take some punishment in the first place.
If that is the strategy, they may have actually have been more successful than at first it seemed.
Even in the actual statement of the NWC, the words agreed to by the people in the room, there is a repudiation of what Zuma has said, an actual refusal to buy his version of events. Much has been made of the claim by Zuma to have an “intelligence report” suggesting that Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas were enlisting the aid of international bankers in their tussle with Zuma. Mantashe, representing the NWC, states that they agree the relationship between Zuma and Gordhan had broken down irretrievably. But the NWC then goes on to say:
“The issue of the intelligence report complicated the matter, creating a lot of unhappiness. This was consequently presented as the only reason for his removal which was unfortunate and incorrect.”
In normal times, the NWC of the ANC, with the backers of Zuma that it has, calling his version of events “unfortunate and incorrect” would be a massive shift. This is surely a public rebuke for Zuma. And this in itself must be unprecedented. In comparison, during Nkandla, the NWC didn’t go this far in its treatment of Zuma.
There is more evidence of a shift in the NWC in its explicit quotation of an ANC conference resolution around reshuffles, which states:
“The prerogative of the President, premiers and mayors to appoint and release members of the Cabinet, executive councils and mayoral committees should be exercised after consultation with the leadership of the organisation.”
In other words, this is the NWC saying, explicitly, that in this case the consultation process was not followed. Again, an unprecedented repudiation of Zuma’s version of events, in public.
And considering that it has been Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize who have been saying exactly this in public, it certainly looks like the NWC is implicitly backing their version of events.
There is also something significant in what has not been said. The NWC essentially accepted that the top six as a structure had not dealt with the reshuffle in the correct way. It did not lambaste, criticise or discipline the three members who had spoken out by name. This is important. If they were on weak ground, they would have been named and shamed; they were not. And they have not been forced to apologise either. Which means, surely, that some of what they said still stands, that it has not been undone by the force of magical politics, or mysteriously forgotten. What they did is still with us.
That alone is significant.
Of course, the NWC has taken the trouble to congratulate the new appointees, and thus, some would say, give its blessing to Zuma’s factional reshuffle. That must surely be true. But it would also be hard for the NWC not to congratulate them, it has to say something. And they are, technically at least, ANC deployees, which means they can’t go into office without the ANC’s blessing. In public at least.
We have a moment now to draw breath for the first time since last Monday morning, and to do that is to realise that the game that is afoot in our politics has changed quite significantly.
For a start, both Cosatu and the SACP have now publicly said it – they want Zuma to go. Some things cannot be put back into the donkey. They cannot unsay it now. And if they were, both organisations would split quite dramatically. This really changes the game, because both groups will be pushed by their constituencies to keep the pressure up on Zuma and the ANC. It is possible to argue that the real fight is in the ANC, and Cosatu and the SACP don’t matter that much. To an extent that’s true, but both of them have members who belong to the ANC. And they are both important as they serve as proxies; they represent different parts of the ANC through their inter-meshed political relationships. They serve as the public voice of the disaffected faction within the ANC that for various reasons can’t be quite as vociferous in public.
There is also the possibility that what is happening now around the SACP could only find its full expression in its congress later this year. Already there have been strong hints that the party’s members will vote to leave the alliance as a formal structure. If it continues to be ignored in this way, that can only further drive that dynamic, with consequences that will be far-reaching for our politics.
However, the most important change to the politics within the ANC is probably the fact that everything is now out in the open. That recording of Ramaphosa saying that a “moment of great renewal us upon us” and referring to “getting rid of greedy people, corrupt people within our ranks” cannot be removed or deleted. We, and everyone in the ANC, can now decide for ourselves what the fight is really about, and where the battle lines are. As Mantashe himself suggested in the press conference on Monday, it was an easy meeting, because everyone could be candid, that they could say what they wanted to say. This is a significant shift, because it means the entire leadership fight is now out in the open, unlike in the past. And it means we are likely to see those who support Ramaphosa speaking out in the open more often, with more freedom than they have in the past. They will know it will be harder for anyone in the ANC to take action against him. And of course, after everything that’s happened, they will have more ammunition.
While for many people, getting rid of Zuma now is the only game in town, in the longer run the leadership battle is probably going to matter more. Especially if you believe that Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma will govern the way Zuma has throughout his disastrous years. In this contest, it could be that Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize have actually shifted the ground, significantly changing the ANC’s game. DM
I tend to agree with this piece.
I hope the weather is nice (cool). Was there once the weekend of 19 September 2015 and it was too bloody hot to relax in the bathsSards wrote:Except that Mbete will stand in as acting president in the case of Zumas removal.......and all those that voted against Zuma will be systematically removed as has just happened with the cabinet shuffle , strengthening the position for Zuma s ex wife.Mr. White wrote:LinkAnalysis: A closer look at the ANC NWC’s statement reveals not so Zuma-friendly side
After four days of late-night announcements, angry press conferences, furious statements, and leaked speeches, it was time for the first major ANC structure to meet to discuss President Jacob Zuma, and the reaction to his factional reshuffle and removal of Pravin Gordhan from the Finance Ministry. In the end, the National Working Committee, surprising no one, simply resolved to “discuss” with Cosatu and the SACP their calls for Zuma to leave. At first glance it looks almost as if nothing has changed, that Zuma is still the MacDaddy of our politics, and the game goes on the same way as it has for many years. But look a little deeper, and it’s possible that the rules of the game have actually changed quite dramatically. By STEPHEN GROOTES.
The ANC is nothing if not predictable. Zuma does something. There is righteous fury and furious anger. Society gets moving, people mutter darkly about Parliament passing a vote of no confidence. After a climax of press conferences, eventually a top ANC structure meets and glosses over it all.
Zuma stays on to giggle another day.
On the face of it, that is exactly what has happened here. There had been huge momentum building up, from Friday night’s dramatic statement by the SACP that Zuma must be removed from office, through to Cosatu's press conference on Monday that basically agreed with the communists. This was all new in our politics. It smelt, to some at least, as if change was in the air, that this momentum was irresistible, until it came into close personal combat with the immovable rock that is Zuma’s built-in majority on the NWC.
The NWC’s statement seems particularly limp-wristed. For many people the only issue that mattered was whether it would suggest an early National Executive Committee meeting to discuss removing Zuma from office. And all it said on that was that “the officials and the members of the NEC must continue to engage with Cosatu, SACP and organs of civil society on this matter”.
Still, to use the removal of Zuma as the only yardstick is misleading. Considering that the ANC has never in its history removed a sitting leader from the presidency (Mbeki was obviously a former leader of the ANC by the time he was removed), it is difficult to consider that not achieving something that has never happened before is a failure.
In all of what is happening around us it can be important to remember this; Gwede Mantashe, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and ANC Treasurer Zweli Mkhize would have known on Friday, when they started to criticise the process followed in the reshuffle, that Zuma would always be safe in the NWC. They would have known the maths of the ANC structures better than almost anyone (the only other possible “one” is, of course, Zuma himself). But despite knowing all of that, they went ahead and made their criticism public anyway. Which means they knew a defeat was coming in this structure.
So then, if that is the case, why did they go public in the first place?
One could argue that it was out of sheer principle. But they didn’t do this during Nkandla, or the State of Capture report, so we can probably agree that the HMS Principle sailed a long time ago. It could be possible, perhaps, that they feel the NWC was never going to be the right structure for this, and actually they have to wait for another structure to have the real fight. Which means that it is the NEC that is really going to matter. Certainly the maths is harder to determine there, and it seems to be less completely overwhelmingly in favour of Zuma than it was, say, two years ago.
There is another possibility: that Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize are actually fighting, not to remove Zuma, but the leadership contest. Surely that is the most important thing, in the longer term, for them, the ANC, and every South African. Perhaps, like a boxer who has to face an opponent over a full 15 rounds, it helps now to reveal their weaknesses, their true character if you like, while doing as much damage as you can in the earlier rounds, even though you’ll take some punishment in the first place.
If that is the strategy, they may have actually have been more successful than at first it seemed.
Even in the actual statement of the NWC, the words agreed to by the people in the room, there is a repudiation of what Zuma has said, an actual refusal to buy his version of events. Much has been made of the claim by Zuma to have an “intelligence report” suggesting that Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas were enlisting the aid of international bankers in their tussle with Zuma. Mantashe, representing the NWC, states that they agree the relationship between Zuma and Gordhan had broken down irretrievably. But the NWC then goes on to say:
“The issue of the intelligence report complicated the matter, creating a lot of unhappiness. This was consequently presented as the only reason for his removal which was unfortunate and incorrect.”
In normal times, the NWC of the ANC, with the backers of Zuma that it has, calling his version of events “unfortunate and incorrect” would be a massive shift. This is surely a public rebuke for Zuma. And this in itself must be unprecedented. In comparison, during Nkandla, the NWC didn’t go this far in its treatment of Zuma.
There is more evidence of a shift in the NWC in its explicit quotation of an ANC conference resolution around reshuffles, which states:
“The prerogative of the President, premiers and mayors to appoint and release members of the Cabinet, executive councils and mayoral committees should be exercised after consultation with the leadership of the organisation.”
In other words, this is the NWC saying, explicitly, that in this case the consultation process was not followed. Again, an unprecedented repudiation of Zuma’s version of events, in public.
And considering that it has been Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize who have been saying exactly this in public, it certainly looks like the NWC is implicitly backing their version of events.
There is also something significant in what has not been said. The NWC essentially accepted that the top six as a structure had not dealt with the reshuffle in the correct way. It did not lambaste, criticise or discipline the three members who had spoken out by name. This is important. If they were on weak ground, they would have been named and shamed; they were not. And they have not been forced to apologise either. Which means, surely, that some of what they said still stands, that it has not been undone by the force of magical politics, or mysteriously forgotten. What they did is still with us.
That alone is significant.
Of course, the NWC has taken the trouble to congratulate the new appointees, and thus, some would say, give its blessing to Zuma’s factional reshuffle. That must surely be true. But it would also be hard for the NWC not to congratulate them, it has to say something. And they are, technically at least, ANC deployees, which means they can’t go into office without the ANC’s blessing. In public at least.
We have a moment now to draw breath for the first time since last Monday morning, and to do that is to realise that the game that is afoot in our politics has changed quite significantly.
For a start, both Cosatu and the SACP have now publicly said it – they want Zuma to go. Some things cannot be put back into the donkey. They cannot unsay it now. And if they were, both organisations would split quite dramatically. This really changes the game, because both groups will be pushed by their constituencies to keep the pressure up on Zuma and the ANC. It is possible to argue that the real fight is in the ANC, and Cosatu and the SACP don’t matter that much. To an extent that’s true, but both of them have members who belong to the ANC. And they are both important as they serve as proxies; they represent different parts of the ANC through their inter-meshed political relationships. They serve as the public voice of the disaffected faction within the ANC that for various reasons can’t be quite as vociferous in public.
There is also the possibility that what is happening now around the SACP could only find its full expression in its congress later this year. Already there have been strong hints that the party’s members will vote to leave the alliance as a formal structure. If it continues to be ignored in this way, that can only further drive that dynamic, with consequences that will be far-reaching for our politics.
However, the most important change to the politics within the ANC is probably the fact that everything is now out in the open. That recording of Ramaphosa saying that a “moment of great renewal us upon us” and referring to “getting rid of greedy people, corrupt people within our ranks” cannot be removed or deleted. We, and everyone in the ANC, can now decide for ourselves what the fight is really about, and where the battle lines are. As Mantashe himself suggested in the press conference on Monday, it was an easy meeting, because everyone could be candid, that they could say what they wanted to say. This is a significant shift, because it means the entire leadership fight is now out in the open, unlike in the past. And it means we are likely to see those who support Ramaphosa speaking out in the open more often, with more freedom than they have in the past. They will know it will be harder for anyone in the ANC to take action against him. And of course, after everything that’s happened, they will have more ammunition.
While for many people, getting rid of Zuma now is the only game in town, in the longer run the leadership battle is probably going to matter more. Especially if you believe that Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma will govern the way Zuma has throughout his disastrous years. In this contest, it could be that Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize have actually shifted the ground, significantly changing the ANC’s game. DM
I tend to agree with this piece.
if Cyril has a plan he has to initiate it now. If he has support to remove Zuma now is his time to do it.
i believe there is an undercurrent movement taking place.
BTW I gave all my staff off for tomorrow to attend the marches.
One of my staff members is married to an EFF big wig and he says there are big plans afootn for tomorrow.
Me I will be supporting them in my heart as my family and I will be in the Baths in Citrusdal enjoying the weekend away from the chaos
I remember the date well as it was the weekend we lost to Japan Fees Must Fall Western Cape rejects the anti-Zuma marches that will see lazy, incompetent and time wasting white citizens of South Africa taking to the streets to protest President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffling
