The Native wrote:
From Marc Orams on the NZ Herald Blog
Quote:
So, the big question becomes, what changes can Oracle Team USA make over the next five days. They will know that if the conditions are the same, they will struggle. Even if they do win the start or impose a penalty on ETNZ, the boat speed advantage Aotearoa has will be virtually impossible to overcome in the 8-12 knot wind speed range. The options they have:
1. Watch the weather forecast and pray for an increase in wind-speed to over 15 knots.
2. Change out rudders to try and get some better straight line speed and trade off control in the turns.
3. Change out main foil tips - same trade off - go for more straight line speed but give up some stability and control.
4. Look very carefully at ETNZ wing trim - this is a real edge - they can analyse and understand this and try to replicate.
5. Be super aggressive in the pre-start and try and force a penalty or a breakage on the ETNZ boat.
6. Try something off the water - a rule change or measurement change to advantage Oracle Team USA.
What ETNZ needs to do is to keep their heads down and on the job, go out everyday and keep on developing. Watch Oracle Team USA very closely and see what changes they are making and understand the trade offs they are making. It will be very important to understand this so as to make adjustments to counter (if needed).
ETNZ will understand better than anyone that this is not over. They have 3 points but need 7, so they are not even half way there yet. It will be very important not to get ahead of themselves and keep working using the recipe that has been successful so far. Constant improvement, focus and shut out the distractions.
With the history of the cup, and the tactics Oracle employ I'm still nervous as fudge. Won't feel comfortable until the cup is sitting in a 1st class seat of an Emirates plane.
As I see it Oracle will definitely be working #6. Expect Larry's lawyers to be earning their coin.
I thought for a second Oracle where going to crash into Aotearoa today. Expect NZ to raise that with the umpires again.
Not sure they can make big changes to the boat. But they have already had several weeks of knowing they aren't up to speed, actually longer, in these winds. So any big changes will already be underway if they thinking they can deploy them. But it seems the rules limit them somewhat. They could have started building batwing tips a month ago. Maybe new wing controls and certainly rudders (it's thought NZ has new rudders for the match).
Other changes are to the way they sail the boat. Copying NZ maneuvers and sailing better. ETNZ have shown there are huge gains here. I reckon Jimmy will be off the boat. If he's not winning starts then he's no good to them. Expect a new helm. Maybe Tom Slingsby taking over, or maybe a young gun. If they are out sailing in the lay days, it may show that big changes to the boat are not possible.
I really think there will be some drama left in this cycle. No way Oracle just bends over without firing some shots. They will have to start putting pressure on the kiwi's somehow/anyhow.
But boy ETNZ look unbeatable in these conditions. Pete kicked his nerves today. And whoever designed those foils needs to be knighted. Also need to force Ashby to take up NZ citizenship, tell him he's off the boat otherwise. It's for his own good.