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 Post subject: Re: Viva Maduro!
PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:23 pm 
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Rugby2023 wrote:
julian wrote:
Glaston wrote:
John McDonnell on Venezuela “I don’t think it was a socialist country”

So now we know why its a failed regime.

Of course it is not a socialist country, not even in the european sense of it. There has never been a socialist country in LATAM, none in the very pure sense of it.

Most of the time people tend to confuse populist leftist latinamerican dictatorships with mild center left european socialist. Two different animals.

Venezuela is the first case, a very very rich country that has been governed for the past decade by some mad thieves, they have been doing socialism in benefit of their own pockets.

Which country do you view as having the pure sense of it?


With pure I assumed most of the other posters were regarding venezuelan socialism (an oxymoron) as "social democracy" alla european.

I recall as fine examples of european social democracies Denmark, Norway, etc., correct me if I am wrong.

If you say that there might exist a kind of socialism like in Venezuela, or like it occurred here in Argentina during the past decades, fine, but those are degenerated socialism.

The latinamerican leftist socialist is not different from the right wing dictators, both abhor democracy.


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 Post subject: Re: Viva Maduro!
PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:30 pm 
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julian wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
julian wrote:
Glaston wrote:
John McDonnell on Venezuela “I don’t think it was a socialist country”

So now we know why its a failed regime.

Of course it is not a socialist country, not even in the european sense of it. There has never been a socialist country in LATAM, none in the very pure sense of it.

Most of the time people tend to confuse populist leftist latinamerican dictatorships with mild center left european socialist. Two different animals.

Venezuela is the first case, a very very rich country that has been governed for the past decade by some mad thieves, they have been doing socialism in benefit of their own pockets.

Which country do you view as having the pure sense of it?


With pure I assumed most of the other posters were regarding venezuelan socialism (an oxymoron) as "social democracy" alla european.

I recall as fine examples of european social democracies Denmark, Norway, etc., correct me if I am wrong.

If you say that there might exist a kind of socialism like in Venezuela, or like it occurred here in Argentina during the past decades, fine, but those are degenerated socialism.

The latinamerican leftist socialist is not different from the right wing dictators, both abhor democracy.


I think that's probably right, although Chile seemed to do things right. Lula's Brazil seemed as corrupt as they come though, even though I thought Dilma wasn't in on that.

Nicaragua is another sad case. The FSLN/Sandinistas had their revolution against a despotic dynasty. Now they have a husband and wife ruling the country as president and vice president, no different than the Somoza dynasty before them. Currently they're busy shooting protesters in the street, like their benefactor further south.


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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 5:15 pm 
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Divide and conquer. Age-old strategy.

http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2018/05/k ... ycott.html

Quote:
The most important point from yesterday's election in Venezuela was its low turnout.

To answer the turnout questions that I wrote last week, the announced turnout was 46% and the actual turnout was almost certainly lower. Hxagon estimates suggest that turnout was under 40%. Reuters says its sources at the CNE had 32% turnout as of 6pm. The actual number is important and contributed to the images of low lines and empty voting locations. The announced number is also important in that the government feared that lying to announce over 50% or greater than six million votes would be a step too far. Everyone knows the participation was incredibly low.

This lack of turnout was a major success for the traditional opposition who called for a boycott. They told Venezuelans that they should not vote and a large and historic majority of Venezuelans stayed home in spite of the begging, bribing and threats of the government intended to force people to the polls. As pessimistic about the boycott strategy as I am, it's still a fair analysis to say yesterday’s very low turnout was as close to the best case scenario for a boycott as its supporters could have hoped.

There are those who will attempt to discredit the oppositions boycott by claiming that many government supporters stayed home. But that suggests an even greater success for the boycott than if just opposition supporters stayed home. Those government supporters who didn't vote bought into the opposition's argument that voting didn’t matter and their votes would not impact the results.

That same traditional opposition still faces the twin challenges of developing a strategy that ousts the current government and finding a program that appeals to a majority of the population. Building on the success of a boycott is harder than building on the success of a proactive vote (such as their 2015 legislative win). However, the boycott is still a rare victory for the opposition that desperately needed one and a potential starting point for a new phase of action if they can figure out what to do.

Does the low turnout matter? I think it matters and I think the government knows that it matters. A government that doesn’t care wouldn’t have set up tables for people to register their card numbers as they voted in order to bribe them with food. A government that doesn’t think actual turnout matters wouldn’t have left polls open for extra hours while using state tv to beg people to vote.

Not that Maduro had any democratic legitimacy prior to this election, but the failure to turn out votes does hit the Venezuelan government's attempts to claim a popular legitimacy from the population. The base of voters that actually supports this government and its policies is very small. The people who poured into the streets to protest the 2002 coup and the voters who backed Chavez's electoral victories in 2006 and 2012 are no longer in this government’s corner.

Additionally, the low participation also hits the government’s authoritarian image of control. Their machine for controlling the population is breaking down. And the same machine that turns out voters also distributes CLAP food boxes and represses protesters and knocks down whispers of dissent from within before they can coordinate against the leader. If the political control machine breaks down, and people realize the machine is broken, the government loses.

Machiavelli says that leaders should want to be both loved and feared. The lack of participation in Venezuela shows that Nicolas Maduro is neither loved nor feared. That is a problem for him.


Not sure I buy that boycotts accomplish anything either.


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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 5:23 pm 
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Interesting blog, thanks for the link :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 5:34 pm 
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Bullettyme wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Bullettyme wrote:
Fly Half wrote:
Is Venezuela not still oil rich?


It needs oil prices to be higher to be profitable. And now the rot has set in they've mismanaged their oil fields and state-owned oil company so their production is way, way down. They can't afford parts, or can't get them due to US sanctions. Plus brain drain.



Prices are higher than when the fields were built, the rot is they're run by corrupt communists not that oil prices need to be higher, they're base cost of production is 1/2 that of US shale which is ticking along again .....


So, exactly what I said yeah. Just I didn't include the hysteria.



Well you didn't really apportion the blame, oil prices aren't at fault.


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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 5:36 pm 
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Quote:
they've mismanaged their oil fields and state owned oil company


Wasn't an apportioning of blame?


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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 5:42 pm 
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Maduro encouraged his voters by telling them: "vote or bullets", easy voting decision then.


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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 5:49 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Bullettyme wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Bullettyme wrote:
Fly Half wrote:
Is Venezuela not still oil rich?


It needs oil prices to be higher to be profitable. And now the rot has set in they've mismanaged their oil fields and state-owned oil company so their production is way, way down. They can't afford parts, or can't get them due to US sanctions. Plus brain drain.



Prices are higher than when the fields were built, the rot is they're run by corrupt communists not that oil prices need to be higher, they're base cost of production is 1/2 that of US shale which is ticking along again .....


So, exactly what I said yeah. Just I didn't include the hysteria.



Well you didn't really apportion the blame, oil prices aren't at fault.


Buttettyme has declared that the government horribly missruns their oil and even started the thread stating "When Socialists go bad". How has he ever not apportioned blame?


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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 9:14 pm 
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Someone mentioned Brazil above. The country is corrupt, institutionally corrupt from he lowest levels of administration to the highest, has been since it came into existence. It doesn't matter if there is a left leaning government or a right. In Brazil you simply do not become a politician let alone a President unless you are corrupt as it would be impossible to garner the support you need from all the factions who decide who gets to stand who of course are themselves corrupt. When a Brazilian politician gets 'done for corruption' it is not just because it has been discovered or found out it is because they have pissed off the wrong people and they are being thrown to the Lions to make the public think there is something being done about all the corruption people know exists and experience on a daily basis in the course of their everyday business. Anyone who thinks all it would take to change is a change of president or ruling party is kidding themselves. It would take a massive change in public apathy, a decent media, no interference from foreign intelligence services and at least a century to begin to change.

I suspect Venezuela is the same and if you look at their previous administrations you will find the same levels of corruption and problems but maybe not such a focus by local or international media. The big thing that has changed is that they have vast amounts of Oil and that is the concern not Venezuela. A friendly administration that sells it to the right buyers would see the focus on Venezuela's problems disappear from the media attention.


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PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 12:11 am 
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henry wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
I wonder when some of these Latin American countries will outgrow their love affair with populist socialism

how many times has it worked for them so far


It would work if the Yanks didn't interfere.

No, really.


:thumbup:


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PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 12:18 am 
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When socialism actually goes wrong.....

Image


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PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 12:44 am 
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tubbyj wrote:
Someone mentioned Brazil above. The country is corrupt, institutionally corrupt from he lowest levels of administration to the highest, has been since it came into existence. It doesn't matter if there is a left leaning government or a right. In Brazil you simply do not become a politician let alone a President unless you are corrupt as it would be impossible to garner the support you need from all the factions who decide who gets to stand who of course are themselves corrupt. When a Brazilian politician gets 'done for corruption' it is not just because it has been discovered or found out it is because they have pissed off the wrong people and they are being thrown to the Lions to make the public think there is something being done about all the corruption people know exists and experience on a daily basis in the course of their everyday business. Anyone who thinks all it would take to change is a change of president or ruling party is kidding themselves. It would take a massive change in public apathy, a decent media, no interference from foreign intelligence services and at least a century to begin to change.

I suspect Venezuela is the same and if you look at their previous administrations you will find the same levels of corruption and problems but maybe not such a focus by local or international media. The big thing that has changed is that they have vast amounts of Oil and that is the concern not Venezuela. A friendly administration that sells it to the right buyers would see the focus on Venezuela's problems disappear from the media attention.


So a bit like the US then? :P


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PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 11:16 am 
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Interesting post tubbyj.

Latin America since independence has always been ruled of a pretty comfortable clique of business/landowners-politics-military generally supported by a mestizo/white aristocracy with all being mutual beneficiaries of power - indigenous and blacks usually excluded. Generally once that comfortable status quo was threatened a coup would occur. There's tonnes of LA countries where grandfathers, fathers and children have all gone on to be president and a couple of landowning families (with members in the military) have pulled the strings for decades. A throwback to the old Caudillo days following independence. What's interesting is that in countries like Bolivia, Venezuela, Brazil, El Salvador, Argentina and Nicaragua (pink tide countries), they attempted to pull down an oligarchy but either replaced it with a new one (Venezuela) or coopted the old one (Nicaragua, Argentina, Bolivia).

Funnily enough in Venezuela, Maduro feels most threatened by the CEO of Empresas Polar, Lorenzo Mendoza. Probably because he's filthy rich, but also wields enough power to stave off nationalisation for so long.


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PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 8:14 am 
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tubbyj wrote:
Someone mentioned Brazil above. The country is corrupt, institutionally corrupt from he lowest levels of administration to the highest, has been since it came into existence. It doesn't matter if there is a left leaning government or a right. In Brazil you simply do not become a politician let alone a President unless you are corrupt as it would be impossible to garner the support you need from all the factions who decide who gets to stand who of course are themselves corrupt. When a Brazilian politician gets 'done for corruption' it is not just because it has been discovered or found out it is because they have pissed off the wrong people and they are being thrown to the Lions to make the public think there is something being done about all the corruption people know exists and experience on a daily basis in the course of their everyday business. Anyone who thinks all it would take to change is a change of president or ruling party is kidding themselves. It would take a massive change in public apathy, a decent media, no interference from foreign intelligence services and at least a century to begin to change.

I suspect Venezuela is the same and if you look at their previous administrations you will find the same levels of corruption and problems but maybe not such a focus by local or international media. The big thing that has changed is that they have vast amounts of Oil and that is the concern not Venezuela. A friendly administration that sells it to the right buyers would see the focus on Venezuela's problems disappear from the media attention.

Very interesting Tubby. Your suspicion of Venezuela as the same leads one to wonder if the same is not true of the entire continent with regards corruption and the southern nations of North America too (with perhaps one or two exceptions).


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PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 1:46 pm 
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tubbyj wrote:
Someone mentioned Brazil above. The country is corrupt, institutionally corrupt from he lowest levels of administration to the highest, has been since it came into existence. It doesn't matter if there is a left leaning government or a right. In Brazil you simply do not become a politician let alone a President unless you are corrupt as it would be impossible to garner the support you need from all the factions who decide who gets to stand who of course are themselves corrupt. When a Brazilian politician gets 'done for corruption' it is not just because it has been discovered or found out it is because they have pissed off the wrong people and they are being thrown to the Lions to make the public think there is something being done about all the corruption people know exists and experience on a daily basis in the course of their everyday business. Anyone who thinks all it would take to change is a change of president or ruling party is kidding themselves. It would take a massive change in public apathy, a decent media, no interference from foreign intelligence services and at least a century to begin to change.

I suspect Venezuela is the same and if you look at their previous administrations you will find the same levels of corruption and problems but maybe not such a focus by local or international media. The big thing that has changed is that they have vast amounts of Oil and that is the concern not Venezuela. A friendly administration that sells it to the right buyers would see the focus on Venezuela's problems disappear from the media attention.


I read at the time about Rousseff being thrown out, and that she did wrongs in the Petrobras scandal but so did the guy that replaced her as well as most of the people voting on her. Okay, no surprise there. At the same time, Rousseff was a nameless bureaucrat that Lula plucked from obscurity to be his successor. The person writing this analysis had the point of view of "she is more moral and noble than most in Brazil, but she was completely unsuited to be president". Part of it is corruption which the love of strong powerful leader is almost universal in Latin America (I would say strongman leader but Argentina had Cristina Kirchner), but part of it also is the complete lack of meritocracy in who gets promoted, which also occurs in western democracies.

The conspiracy theorist in me has always wondered if Lula knew stuff was going to happen and picked a successor that couldn't do the job intentionally so his return to politics would be a triumphant restoration.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:29 am 
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Nicholas Maduro survived an assassination attempt yesterday, where armed drones attacked him as he spoke at an event. Probably going to precipitate a massive purge now, which in itself may trigger further coup attempts.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:59 pm 
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Bullettyme wrote:
Nicholas Maduro survived an assassination attempt yesterday, where armed drones attacked him as he spoke at an event. Probably going to precipitate a massive purge now, which in itself may trigger further coup attempts.


Allegedly.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:40 pm 
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LandOTurk wrote:
Bullettyme wrote:
Nicholas Maduro survived an assassination attempt yesterday, where armed drones attacked him as he spoke at an event. Probably going to precipitate a massive purge now, which in itself may trigger further coup attempts.


Allegedly.


Well it looks like it actually happened from the videos I have seen. He's laid the blame at the door of Colombia and blamed their president of direct involvement.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:54 pm 
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Bullettyme wrote:
Interesting post tubbyj.

Latin America since independence has always been ruled of a pretty comfortable clique of business/landowners-politics-military generally supported by a mestizo/white with all being mutual beneficiaries of power - indigenous and blacks usually excluded. Generally once that comfortable status quo was threatened a coup would occur. There's tonnes of LA countries where grandfathers, fathers and children have all gone on to be president and a couple of landowning families (with members in the military) have pulled the strings for decades. A throwback to the old Caudillo days following independence. What's interesting is that in countries like Bolivia, Venezuela, Brazil, El Salvador, Argentina and Nicaragua (pink tide countries), they attempted to pull down an oligarchy but either replaced it with a new one (Venezuela) or coopted the old one (Nicaragua, Argentina, Bolivia).

Funnily enough in Venezuela, Maduro feels most threatened by the CEO of Empresas Polar, Lorenzo Mendoza. Probably because he's filthy rich, but also wields enough power to stave off nationalisation for so long.


I'm in Venezuela and spend the NZ winters mostly in Caracas & Ilsa de Margarita.
This Government is Indigenous/Military and the benefits are given to the same .
The military is about 95% Indigenous, National police about 90%, and local police usually match there local mixure.
Want to be a taxi driver and a member of the party so you get a new car for $3,000 instead of $30,000
The petrol for everyone is US$1 for 3,870,000 litres yes that is about $0.03 for a petrol tanker full of gas.
Just brought some Pifer heart pills cost $5,000 in the States cost US$30 here.
There are reports there was no drone attack was just an exploding gas tank but with military truth is sometimes forgotten
The Government lacks businessmen/farmers/white professional class.
The uneducated/military/union leaders are in control and they no how to run the country and 20% believe them.


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