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Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:07 pm
by sorCrer
bimboman wrote:
sorCrer wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
sorCrer wrote:
Has been. Managed to sell on the that news and get in 3.5% cheaper.
I think I might have stayed short a little longer to see where the land lays....
I do have an XRP order at 0.293 so will see if the 0.3 gets broken. Looks hesitant.
Do you bank any of your profits ?
I do but probably not as often or as much as I should. Roughly 15% of my portfolio is in crypto which I'm aware is a lot. I earn software royalties and will (all being well) for the rest of my life ao rely on that and some coding to bring in money whilst I think of software to develop. I can code practically anything consumer facing.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:11 pm
by bimboman
Cool. That's money in the bank.

Buy some real assets though, things you can touch.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:02 pm
by sorCrer
YOYO wrote:
sorCrer wrote:
Has been. Managed to sell on the that news and get in 3.5% cheaper.
Would it be in the East where the first affects of a crypto crash are felt? Do you read the relevant forums coming out of Japan, China and South Korea? I assume one would need the language skills for that.
Everything is in Twitter.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:05 pm
by sorCrer
bimboman wrote:Cool. That's money in the bank.

Buy some real assets though, things you can touch.
I have 2 house and no children so I'm a little unsure. Probably why I drink too much. :(( Edit: Possibly this is why one should have children.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:08 pm
by bimboman
sorCrer wrote:
bimboman wrote:Cool. That's money in the bank.

Buy some real assets though, things you can touch.
I have 2 house and no children so I'm a little unsure. Probably why I drink too much. :(( Edit: Possibly this is why one should have children.

They do stop fathers drinking, mothers not so much.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:55 pm
by Ted.
sorCrer wrote:
bimboman wrote:Cool. That's money in the bank.

Buy some real assets though, things you can touch.
I have 2 house and no children so I'm a little unsure. Probably why I drink too much. :(( Edit: Possibly this is why one should have children.
You could adopt.

I know an excellent candidate. :nod:

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:38 pm
by sewa
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... t-deepens/

Down a load again, great buying oppurtunity

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:11 pm
by The Sun God
sewa wrote:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... t-deepens/

Down a load again, great buying oppurtunity
You know what you get trying to pick bottoms ??

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:19 pm
by sewa
The Sun God wrote:
sewa wrote:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... t-deepens/

Down a load again, great buying oppurtunity
You know what you get trying to pick bottoms ??
I was being sarcastic. Everytime these coins tank Sorcerer goes on about the money he made based on the drop

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:21 pm
by NickC
sewa wrote:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... t-deepens/

Down a load again, great buying oppurtunity
You should never buy in a down-trend, and the crypto market is in a big downtrend at the moment.

There is a chance that Bitcoin will fade all the way back down to the $3000 level, dragging all the other
cryptos with it.

There is so much spoofing and deception in this market it makes the Brexit Thread seem almost gentlemanly.....

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:13 pm
by sorCrer
sewa wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
sewa wrote:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... t-deepens/

Down a load again, great buying oppurtunity
You know what you get trying to pick bottoms ??
I was being sarcastic. Everytime these coins tank Sorcerer goes on about the money he made based on the drop

No, I don't. I have BTC I've bought at $14000. I also have BTC bought at $200. Ideally, I'd be happy for it to be trading double what it is now. My XRP trade yesterday was got out at 0.321 and got back in at 0.293 it's now at 0.28351. My 30 day volume is heavily down at around ZAR400k (December 2017, it was > ZAR21000000). I don't trade for a living. I do have stop losses set.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:40 pm
by paddyor
Joe Weisenthal
‏ @TheStalwart
7h7 hours ago

If you lived in Argentina, and instead of holding pesos, you converted them to Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, then you would have lost even more money.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:46 pm
by sorCrer
paddyor wrote:
Joe Weisenthal
‏ @TheStalwart
7h7 hours ago

If you lived in Argentina, and instead of holding pesos, you converted them to Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, then you would have lost even more money.
If you'd bought them exactly 1 year ago today you'd be up over 40%.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:49 pm
by goeagles
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/06/goldman ... r=sharebar
A top Goldman Sachs executive looked to clear the air Thursday about the bank's cryptocurrency ambitions after reports that it was abandoning plans to open a trading desk for cryptocurrencies.

"I never thought I would hear myself use this term but I really have to describe that news as fake news," Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer Martin Chavez said on stage at the TechCrunch Disrupt Conference in San Francisco.

The CFO said Goldman is working on a type of derivative for bitcoin because "clients want it."

"The next stage of the exploration is what we call non-deliverable forwards, these are over the counter derivatives, they're settled in U.S. dollars and the reference price is the bitcoin-U.S. dollar price established by a set of exchanges," Chavez said.

The price of bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies tumbled after the initial report by Business Insider earlier this week. The Wall Street giant has been considering the launch of some sort of cryptocurrency option for clients for the past year. But it's never been quite clear just what the bank was planning.

"In response to client interest in digital currencies, we are exploring how best to serve them in this space," a Goldman spokeswoman told CNBC in October.


Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:09 am
by Bowens
paddyor wrote:
Joe Weisenthal
‏ @TheStalwart
7h7 hours ago

If you lived in Argentina, and instead of holding pesos, you converted them to Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, then you would have lost even more money.
:lol:

Moon! Lambo!

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:32 am
by kiwinoz
Seneca of the Night wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
sewa wrote:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... t-deepens/

Down a load again, great buying oppurtunity
You know what you get trying to pick bottoms ??
An unwelcome evening out on the town with milo yiannopolus?
:lol: :lol:

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:24 pm
by Bowens

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:02 pm
by goeagles
Bowens wrote:Crypto crash now worse than dotcom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-reach-80
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.

Image

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:16 pm
by Bowens
I thought this was the crypto thread now. Ethereum ate shit I see.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:18 pm
by sorCrer
goeagles wrote:
Bowens wrote:Crypto crash now worse than dotcom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-reach-80
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.
I don't even bother with the FUD anymore. CNBC is the worst.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:19 pm
by bimboman
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.
IT wasn't all about Bitcoin.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:20 pm
by Bowens
Maybe he didn’t read the article :?

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:22 pm
by sorCrer
bimboman wrote:
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.
IT wasn't all about Bitcoin.
Yeah, don't worry Bimbs. We're watching everything, all the time. I read this article several hours ago.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:24 pm
by bimboman
sorCrer wrote:
bimboman wrote:
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.
IT wasn't all about Bitcoin.
Yeah, don't worry Bimbs. We're watching everything, all the time. I read this article several hours ago.

Good for you, not really related to my point. How's your trading day going?

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:31 pm
by sorCrer
bimboman wrote:
sorCrer wrote:
bimboman wrote:
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.
IT wasn't all about Bitcoin.
Yeah, don't worry Bimbs. We're watching everything, all the time. I read this article several hours ago.

Good for you, not really related to my point. How's your trading day going?
I'm very much on the sidelines currently. Have a software project I've written and am busy rolling out to 40 restaurants with another 90+ in the pipeline. I am watching it and talking to my fellows. Late June it was around nearly 10% lower than currently. I don't hold any ETH.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:35 pm
by derriz
goeagles wrote:
Bowens wrote:Crypto crash now worse than dotcom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-reach-80
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.

Image
That's a very deceptive graph.

Using a log price scale makes it look like an investor at the peak has only suffered minor losses.

The true scale of fall since the peak are clear when you scale the price linearly:
Image

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:48 pm
by goeagles
Bowens wrote:I thought this was the crypto thread now. Ethereum ate shit I see.
Ethereum has been eating shit in large part because of ICO company selling pressure (ICOs raised money via ETH, have no product and need to pay bills). There's still quite a bit of selling pressure for the foreseeable future, though: https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/10 ... 9934837760
Bowens wrote:Maybe he didn’t read the article :?
The article itself was laughable.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:51 pm
by goeagles
derriz wrote:
goeagles wrote:
Bowens wrote:Crypto crash now worse than dotcom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-reach-80
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.

Image
That's a very deceptive graph.

Using a log price scale makes it look like an investor at the peak has only suffered minor losses.

The true scale of fall since the peak are clear when you scale the price linearly:
Image
How is it deceptive? It shows the percentage decrease, which is what was being discussed. It's not meant to show what an investor at its peak lost. It's intended to show that BTC has suffered larger losses in the past and recovered.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:09 pm
by bimboman
show that BTC has suffered larger losses in the past and recovered.

As the notionals grow the losses are larger.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:49 pm
by Anonymous 1
goeagles wrote:
derriz wrote:
goeagles wrote:
Bowens wrote:Crypto crash now worse than dotcom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-reach-80
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.

Image
That's a very deceptive graph.

Using a log price scale makes it look like an investor at the peak has only suffered minor losses.

The true scale of fall since the peak are clear when you scale the price linearly:
Image
How is it deceptive? It shows the percentage decrease, which is what was being discussed. It's not meant to show what an investor at its peak lost. It's intended to show that BTC has suffered larger losses in the past and recovered.
It's still deflating. Where it stops nobody knows.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:13 pm
by goeagles
Anonymous. wrote:
goeagles wrote:
derriz wrote:
goeagles wrote:
Bowens wrote:Crypto crash now worse than dotcom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-reach-80
It's not even Bitcoin's worst % loss in the last 5 years.

Image
That's a very deceptive graph.

Using a log price scale makes it look like an investor at the peak has only suffered minor losses.

The true scale of fall since the peak are clear when you scale the price linearly:
Image
How is it deceptive? It shows the percentage decrease, which is what was being discussed. It's not meant to show what an investor at its peak lost. It's intended to show that BTC has suffered larger losses in the past and recovered.
It's still deflating. Where it stops nobody knows.
It's been holding steady above 6k for a few months. Wouldn't be surprised to see it go to 4500 though. Would be surprised to see it drop below 4k.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:59 pm
by derriz
goeagles wrote:How is it deceptive? It shows the percentage decrease, which is what was being discussed. It's not meant to show what an investor at its peak lost. It's intended to show that BTC has suffered larger losses in the past and recovered.
It makes no sense to use log scale unless dealing with values that span more than 6 or so orders of magnitude. There was another advantage in the past - before electronic calculators - because the y-axis acted like a slide-rule allowing you to quickly compute % returns between two dates. But they suck as tools for visualization even if technical analysts/charlatans still like them because they add mystique to their "art". Their problems are particularly bad if the range includes values close to zero.

In the case of your graph there is no justifiable reason for using a log scale here and it's deceptive because unless you examine the scale to see what is going on, it looks like the fall of more than 60% in the last year is mearly a small wobble in an overall upward trend. Log price scales are particularly poor for highlighing volatility as the graph demonstrates - bitcoin doesn't look that risky at all when you log the prices. If it wasn't a graph being peddled by bitcoin pump merchants, then I'd probably give them the benefit of the doubt and consider it stupid instead of deceptive.

There's a whole section in the wikipedia "misleading graph" article on the use of log scales.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:19 pm
by goeagles
derriz wrote:
goeagles wrote:How is it deceptive? It shows the percentage decrease, which is what was being discussed. It's not meant to show what an investor at its peak lost. It's intended to show that BTC has suffered larger losses in the past and recovered.
It makes no sense to use log scale unless dealing with values that span more than 6 or so orders of magnitude. There was another advantage in the past - before electronic calculators - because the y-axis acted like a slide-rule allowing you to quickly compute % returns between two dates. But they suck as tools for visualization even if technical analysts/charlatans still like them because they add mystique to their "art". Their problems are particularly bad if the range includes values close to zero.

In the case of your graph there is no justifiable reason for using a log scale here and it's deceptive because unless you examine the scale to see what is going on, it looks like the fall of more than 60% in the last year is mearly a small wobble in an overall upward trend. Log price scales are particularly poor for highlighing volatility as the graph demonstrates - bitcoin doesn't look that risky at all when you log the prices. If it wasn't a graph being peddled by bitcoin pump merchants, then I'd probably give them the benefit of the doubt and consider it stupid instead of deceptive.

There's a whole section in the wikipedia "misleading graph" article on the use of log scales.
The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash. Because of that, log scale is absolutely appropriate. I don't really care whether or not you think the graph is misleading in some other context.

And Bitcoin isn't particularly risky when a small part (say 1%) of a larger portfolio because it is much less correlated with the market than other assets (although increasingly less so). Let's take 2 portfolios. Option A is 60% equities and 40% bonds. Option B is 60% equities, 39% bonds and 1% Bitcoin. Which do you think would have had greater volatility over the last year?

Edit to add that Bitcoin, like gold, is also a hedge against tail risk and that any discussion of how risky it is is incomplete without that.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:21 pm
by bimboman
The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash.
Which would be relevant if the article was only about bit coin and in fact didn't state it thought Bitcoin was a winner.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:59 am
by goeagles
bimboman wrote:
The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash.
Which would be relevant if the article was only about bit coin and in fact didn't state it thought Bitcoin was a winner.
Pretty much every other crypto that's been around awhile has gone through the same thing. Alts basically act as leveraged Bitcoin with regard to price.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:15 am
by paddyor
Myles Udland
‏ @MylesUdland

"Coinbase disclosed that almost twenty percent of executed volume on its platform was attributable to its own trading." Thanks for playing. https://virtualmarkets.ag.ny.gov/ (h/t @EpsilonTheory)

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:29 am
by sorCrer
paddyor wrote:
Myles Udland
‏ @MylesUdland

"Coinbase disclosed that almost twenty percent of executed volume on its platform was attributable to its own trading." Thanks for playing. https://virtualmarkets.ag.ny.gov/ (h/t @EpsilonTheory)
That's a good read. Pleased to see that Bitstamp don't trade on their own platform. Best exchange for mine.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:14 pm
by derriz
goeagles wrote:The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash. Because of that, log scale is absolutely appropriate. I don't really care whether or not you think the graph is misleading in some other context.
Except the price graph does a terrible job as humans do not naturally perceive percentage drops on log scales. Creativity with price graphs - stretching the scales, sliding the scales, using log scales has been the mark of the financial charletanism for a century at least.
goeagles wrote:And Bitcoin isn't particularly risky when a small part (say 1%) of a larger portfolio because it is much less correlated with the market than other assets (although increasingly less so). Let's take 2 portfolios. Option A is 60% equities and 40% bonds. Option B is 60% equities, 39% bonds and 1% Bitcoin. Which do you think would have had greater volatility over the last year?
This makes no sense. Playing roulette - as long as it's only with 1% of your portfolio - will not greatly affect the overall volatility of the portfolio either.

And the less correlated aspect is useless to an investor if the expected return is negative.

And I'd be very surprised if the daily volatility of the Option B was lower. But feel free to show me the numbers: overall sharpes and the daily return coorelation matrix for the 3 asset classes. Although since you are talking about only 1% allocated to bitcoin, the differences of course will be minscule.
goeagles wrote:Edit to add that Bitcoin, like gold, is also a hedge against tail risk and that any discussion of how risky it is is incomplete without that.
How is it a hedge against tail risk? Gold has 1000s of years of documented history as a hedge against calamity - what pedigree has bitcoin got? It didn't even exist before the GFC and its price bubble coincided with one periods of huge price inflation across multiple asset classes.

The closest time we have to be able to test it would be the period from mid-late 2011 to about a year later when equity volatility spiked and gold soared. Unlike gold, bitcoin shed half it's value.

The bitcoin boosters are always moving the goalposts; first it was going to revolutionize payments, until it turned out that it was sh1t for payments. Then it was going to free us from the tyranny of "the man" until China dominated mining - meaning the network could be fücked anytime the freedom loving Chinese govenment decided. Then it was going to act as a long term store of value, until it turned out to be sh1t for that too with 50% drawdowns occurring on a regular basis. Next it's a "haven" asset that people will rush to in times of crisis except the only time in its tiny history where we had a significant risk-off period, it shed value.

But I don't know why I bother with this stuff - it's hard to know whether I'm talking with someone who is sipping the coolaid or someone who is pressing the bottles into people's hands. Honestly, if you weren't an investor in BTC, would you be spending time defending it? It's absolutely worthless from every perspective - even the technology (cryptographic distributed ledger) is a curiosity and nothing more.

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:28 pm
by sorCrer
derriz wrote:
goeagles wrote:The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash. Because of that, log scale is absolutely appropriate. I don't really care whether or not you think the graph is misleading in some other context.
Except the price graph does a terrible job as humans do not naturally perceive percentage drops on log scales. Creativity with price graphs - stretching the scales, sliding the scales, using log scales has been the mark of the financial charletanism for a century at least.
goeagles wrote:And Bitcoin isn't particularly risky when a small part (say 1%) of a larger portfolio because it is much less correlated with the market than other assets (although increasingly less so). Let's take 2 portfolios. Option A is 60% equities and 40% bonds. Option B is 60% equities, 39% bonds and 1% Bitcoin. Which do you think would have had greater volatility over the last year?
This makes no sense. Playing roulette - as long as it's only with 1% of your portfolio - will not greatly affect the overall volatility of the portfolio either.

And the less correlated aspect is useless to an investor if the expected return is negative.

And I'd be very surprised if the daily volatility of the Option B was lower. But feel free to show me the numbers: overall sharpes and the daily return coorelation matrix for the 3 asset classes. Although since you are talking about only 1% allocated to bitcoin, the differences of course will be minscule.
goeagles wrote:Edit to add that Bitcoin, like gold, is also a hedge against tail risk and that any discussion of how risky it is is incomplete without that.
How is it a hedge against tail risk? Gold has 1000s of years of documented history as a hedge against calamity - what pedigree has bitcoin got? It didn't even exist before the GFC and its price bubble coincided with one periods of huge price inflation across multiple asset classes.

The closest time we have to be able to test it would be the period from mid-late 2011 to about a year later when equity volatility spiked and gold soared. Unlike gold, bitcoin shed half it's value.

The bitcoin boosters are always moving the goalposts; first it was going to revolutionize payments, until it turned out that it was sh1t for payments. Then it was going to free us from the tyranny of "the man" until China dominated mining - meaning the network could be fücked anytime the freedom loving Chinese govenment decided. Then it was going to act as a long term store of value, until it turned out to be sh1t for that too with 50% drawdowns occurring on a regular basis. Next it's a "haven" asset that people will rush to in times of crisis except the only time in its tiny history where we had a significant risk-off period, it shed value.

But I don't know why I bother with this stuff - it's hard to know whether I'm talking with someone who is sipping the coolaid or someone who is pressing the bottles into people's hands. Honestly, if you weren't an investor in BTC, would you be spending time defending it? It's absolutely worthless from every perspective - even the technology (cryptographic distributed ledger) is a curiosity and nothing more.
Your view on Ripple?

Re: €100 of Bitcoin in 2010 = €70m today

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:26 pm
by sewa
https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2018/0 ... -takeover/

Part of my job is IT compliance / security so I get notified of issues. This sort of thing makes me laugh, its incredibly lax. Rank amateurism in fact