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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:21 pm 
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The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash.


Which would be relevant if the article was only about bit coin and in fact didn't state it thought Bitcoin was a winner.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:59 am 
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bimboman wrote:
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The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash.


Which would be relevant if the article was only about bit coin and in fact didn't state it thought Bitcoin was a winner.


Pretty much every other crypto that's been around awhile has gone through the same thing. Alts basically act as leveraged Bitcoin with regard to price.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:15 am 
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Myles Udland
‏ @MylesUdland

"Coinbase disclosed that almost twenty percent of executed volume on its platform was attributable to its own trading." Thanks for playing. https://virtualmarkets.ag.ny.gov/ (h/t @EpsilonTheory)


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:29 am 
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paddyor wrote:
Quote:
Myles Udland
‏ @MylesUdland

"Coinbase disclosed that almost twenty percent of executed volume on its platform was attributable to its own trading." Thanks for playing. https://virtualmarkets.ag.ny.gov/ (h/t @EpsilonTheory)


That's a good read. Pleased to see that Bitstamp don't trade on their own platform. Best exchange for mine.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:14 pm 
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goeagles wrote:
The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash. Because of that, log scale is absolutely appropriate. I don't really care whether or not you think the graph is misleading in some other context.

Except the price graph does a terrible job as humans do not naturally perceive percentage drops on log scales. Creativity with price graphs - stretching the scales, sliding the scales, using log scales has been the mark of the financial charletanism for a century at least.
goeagles wrote:
And Bitcoin isn't particularly risky when a small part (say 1%) of a larger portfolio because it is much less correlated with the market than other assets (although increasingly less so). Let's take 2 portfolios. Option A is 60% equities and 40% bonds. Option B is 60% equities, 39% bonds and 1% Bitcoin. Which do you think would have had greater volatility over the last year?

This makes no sense. Playing roulette - as long as it's only with 1% of your portfolio - will not greatly affect the overall volatility of the portfolio either.

And the less correlated aspect is useless to an investor if the expected return is negative.

And I'd be very surprised if the daily volatility of the Option B was lower. But feel free to show me the numbers: overall sharpes and the daily return coorelation matrix for the 3 asset classes. Although since you are talking about only 1% allocated to bitcoin, the differences of course will be minscule.
goeagles wrote:
Edit to add that Bitcoin, like gold, is also a hedge against tail risk and that any discussion of how risky it is is incomplete without that.

How is it a hedge against tail risk? Gold has 1000s of years of documented history as a hedge against calamity - what pedigree has bitcoin got? It didn't even exist before the GFC and its price bubble coincided with one periods of huge price inflation across multiple asset classes.

The closest time we have to be able to test it would be the period from mid-late 2011 to about a year later when equity volatility spiked and gold soared. Unlike gold, bitcoin shed half it's value.

The bitcoin boosters are always moving the goalposts; first it was going to revolutionize payments, until it turned out that it was sh1t for payments. Then it was going to free us from the tyranny of "the man" until China dominated mining - meaning the network could be fücked anytime the freedom loving Chinese govenment decided. Then it was going to act as a long term store of value, until it turned out to be sh1t for that too with 50% drawdowns occurring on a regular basis. Next it's a "haven" asset that people will rush to in times of crisis except the only time in its tiny history where we had a significant risk-off period, it shed value.

But I don't know why I bother with this stuff - it's hard to know whether I'm talking with someone who is sipping the coolaid or someone who is pressing the bottles into people's hands. Honestly, if you weren't an investor in BTC, would you be spending time defending it? It's absolutely worthless from every perspective - even the technology (cryptographic distributed ledger) is a curiosity and nothing more.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:28 pm 
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derriz wrote:
goeagles wrote:
The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash. Because of that, log scale is absolutely appropriate. I don't really care whether or not you think the graph is misleading in some other context.

Except the price graph does a terrible job as humans do not naturally perceive percentage drops on log scales. Creativity with price graphs - stretching the scales, sliding the scales, using log scales has been the mark of the financial charletanism for a century at least.
goeagles wrote:
And Bitcoin isn't particularly risky when a small part (say 1%) of a larger portfolio because it is much less correlated with the market than other assets (although increasingly less so). Let's take 2 portfolios. Option A is 60% equities and 40% bonds. Option B is 60% equities, 39% bonds and 1% Bitcoin. Which do you think would have had greater volatility over the last year?

This makes no sense. Playing roulette - as long as it's only with 1% of your portfolio - will not greatly affect the overall volatility of the portfolio either.

And the less correlated aspect is useless to an investor if the expected return is negative.

And I'd be very surprised if the daily volatility of the Option B was lower. But feel free to show me the numbers: overall sharpes and the daily return coorelation matrix for the 3 asset classes. Although since you are talking about only 1% allocated to bitcoin, the differences of course will be minscule.
goeagles wrote:
Edit to add that Bitcoin, like gold, is also a hedge against tail risk and that any discussion of how risky it is is incomplete without that.

How is it a hedge against tail risk? Gold has 1000s of years of documented history as a hedge against calamity - what pedigree has bitcoin got? It didn't even exist before the GFC and its price bubble coincided with one periods of huge price inflation across multiple asset classes.

The closest time we have to be able to test it would be the period from mid-late 2011 to about a year later when equity volatility spiked and gold soared. Unlike gold, bitcoin shed half it's value.

The bitcoin boosters are always moving the goalposts; first it was going to revolutionize payments, until it turned out that it was sh1t for payments. Then it was going to free us from the tyranny of "the man" until China dominated mining - meaning the network could be fücked anytime the freedom loving Chinese govenment decided. Then it was going to act as a long term store of value, until it turned out to be sh1t for that too with 50% drawdowns occurring on a regular basis. Next it's a "haven" asset that people will rush to in times of crisis except the only time in its tiny history where we had a significant risk-off period, it shed value.

But I don't know why I bother with this stuff - it's hard to know whether I'm talking with someone who is sipping the coolaid or someone who is pressing the bottles into people's hands. Honestly, if you weren't an investor in BTC, would you be spending time defending it? It's absolutely worthless from every perspective - even the technology (cryptographic distributed ledger) is a curiosity and nothing more.


Your view on Ripple?


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:26 pm 
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https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2018/09/21/bitcoin-flaw-could-have-allowed-dreaded-51-takeover/

Part of my job is IT compliance / security so I get notified of issues. This sort of thing makes me laugh, its incredibly lax. Rank amateurism in fact


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:31 pm 
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sewa wrote:
https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2018/09/21/bitcoin-flaw-could-have-allowed-dreaded-51-takeover/

Part of my job is IT compliance / security so I get notified of issues. This sort of thing makes me laugh, its incredibly lax. Rank amateurism in fact


Patched and also in older versions anyway. Do you code?


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:36 pm 
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sorCrer wrote:
sewa wrote:
https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2018/09/21/bitcoin-flaw-could-have-allowed-dreaded-51-takeover/

Part of my job is IT compliance / security so I get notified of issues. This sort of thing makes me laugh, its incredibly lax. Rank amateurism in fact


Patched and also in older versions anyway. Do you code?


I don't code, we use outside consultants for that. It is the comments under this that are very worrying

Tweeted respected cryptocurrency expert and Cornell University professor, Emin Gün Sirer

Emin Gün Sirer

@el33th4xor
· Sep 19, 2018
Major bug in Bitcoin Core, that can cause a total network fracture for BTC.

Empirically, bugs like this are found regularly in every coin. No implementation has been shown to be superior to others. All noise to the contrary is false marketing. https://twitter.com/bitcoincoreorg/stat ... 2224860161

Looks like the bug fix made its way to Litecoin, but only after the BTC fix was announced. Does not look like Litecoin devs were notified of the bug prior to patch.

Copycat currencies are at risk. By definition, there's always a group upstream that knows their vulnerabilities.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:40 pm 
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sewa wrote:
sorCrer wrote:
sewa wrote:
https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2018/09/21/bitcoin-flaw-could-have-allowed-dreaded-51-takeover/

Part of my job is IT compliance / security so I get notified of issues. This sort of thing makes me laugh, its incredibly lax. Rank amateurism in fact


Patched and also in older versions anyway. Do you code?


I don't code, we use outside consultants for that. It is the comments under this that are very worrying

Tweeted respected cryptocurrency expert and Cornell University professor, Emin Gün Sirer

Emin Gün Sirer

@el33th4xor
· Sep 19, 2018
Major bug in Bitcoin Core, that can cause a total network fracture for BTC.

Empirically, bugs like this are found regularly in every coin. No implementation has been shown to be superior to others. All noise to the contrary is false marketing. https://twitter.com/bitcoincoreorg/stat ... 2224860161

Looks like the bug fix made its way to Litecoin, but only after the BTC fix was announced. Does not look like Litecoin devs were notified of the bug prior to patch.

Copycat currencies are at risk. By definition, there's always a group upstream that knows their vulnerabilities.


Yeah. Look the Core code is open source. Anyone with sufficient knowledge can read it and look for holes. It's been around for coming on 10 years now. Holes get found and holes get closed. This is good. Bugs happen in software.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:46 pm 
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sorCrer wrote:

Yeah. Look the Core code is open source. Anyone with sufficient knowledge can read it and look for holes. It's been around for coming on 10 years now. Holes get found and holes get closed. This is good. Bugs happen in software.


Eh, no its not good. Certainly not if you get up one morning and all your cash is gone. The worrying thing from a compliance perspective is having identified the weakness the why did the developers not inform the litecoin developers in a timely fashion? You have to build trust in your product and this does not help at all


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:51 pm 
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sewa wrote:
sorCrer wrote:

Yeah. Look the Core code is open source. Anyone with sufficient knowledge can read it and look for holes. It's been around for coming on 10 years now. Holes get found and holes get closed. This is good. Bugs happen in software.


Eh, no its not good. Certainly not if you get up one morning and all your cash is gone. The worrying thing from a compliance perspective is having identified the weakness the why did the developers not inform the litecoin developers in a timely fashion? You have to build trust in your product and this does not help at all


You shouldn't have all your cash invested in BTC. I agree that it's not ideal. Software writing is difficult. I hadn't heard of this Litecoin angle before although I knew about the flaw. I'd agree that devs should notify other devs using a common codebase if there is a flaw. As you well know, in the majority of cases flaws are actually quite difficult to exploit in the real world.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:48 pm 
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sorCrer wrote:
sewa wrote:
sorCrer wrote:
sewa wrote:
https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2018/09/21/bitcoin-flaw-could-have-allowed-dreaded-51-takeover/

Part of my job is IT compliance / security so I get notified of issues. This sort of thing makes me laugh, its incredibly lax. Rank amateurism in fact


Patched and also in older versions anyway. Do you code?


I don't code, we use outside consultants for that. It is the comments under this that are very worrying

Tweeted respected cryptocurrency expert and Cornell University professor, Emin Gün Sirer

Emin Gün Sirer

@el33th4xor
· Sep 19, 2018
Major bug in Bitcoin Core, that can cause a total network fracture for BTC.

Empirically, bugs like this are found regularly in every coin. No implementation has been shown to be superior to others. All noise to the contrary is false marketing. https://twitter.com/bitcoincoreorg/stat ... 2224860161

Looks like the bug fix made its way to Litecoin, but only after the BTC fix was announced. Does not look like Litecoin devs were notified of the bug prior to patch.

Copycat currencies are at risk. By definition, there's always a group upstream that knows their vulnerabilities.


Yeah. Look the Core code is open source. Anyone with sufficient knowledge can read it and look for holes. It's been around for coming on 10 years now. Holes get found and holes get closed. This is good. Bugs happen in software.

I have very little knowledge of softy but I nearly LOL when I read "this is good"


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:26 pm 
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sorCrer wrote:
derriz wrote:
goeagles wrote:
The intention of the graph in this context is to show that Bitcoin has faced multiple drops, on a percentage basis, greater than this supposed all time worst crash. Because of that, log scale is absolutely appropriate. I don't really care whether or not you think the graph is misleading in some other context.

Except the price graph does a terrible job as humans do not naturally perceive percentage drops on log scales. Creativity with price graphs - stretching the scales, sliding the scales, using log scales has been the mark of the financial charletanism for a century at least.
goeagles wrote:
And Bitcoin isn't particularly risky when a small part (say 1%) of a larger portfolio because it is much less correlated with the market than other assets (although increasingly less so). Let's take 2 portfolios. Option A is 60% equities and 40% bonds. Option B is 60% equities, 39% bonds and 1% Bitcoin. Which do you think would have had greater volatility over the last year?

This makes no sense. Playing roulette - as long as it's only with 1% of your portfolio - will not greatly affect the overall volatility of the portfolio either.

And the less correlated aspect is useless to an investor if the expected return is negative.

And I'd be very surprised if the daily volatility of the Option B was lower. But feel free to show me the numbers: overall sharpes and the daily return coorelation matrix for the 3 asset classes. Although since you are talking about only 1% allocated to bitcoin, the differences of course will be minscule.
goeagles wrote:
Edit to add that Bitcoin, like gold, is also a hedge against tail risk and that any discussion of how risky it is is incomplete without that.

How is it a hedge against tail risk? Gold has 1000s of years of documented history as a hedge against calamity - what pedigree has bitcoin got? It didn't even exist before the GFC and its price bubble coincided with one periods of huge price inflation across multiple asset classes.

The closest time we have to be able to test it would be the period from mid-late 2011 to about a year later when equity volatility spiked and gold soared. Unlike gold, bitcoin shed half it's value.

The bitcoin boosters are always moving the goalposts; first it was going to revolutionize payments, until it turned out that it was sh1t for payments. Then it was going to free us from the tyranny of "the man" until China dominated mining - meaning the network could be fücked anytime the freedom loving Chinese govenment decided. Then it was going to act as a long term store of value, until it turned out to be sh1t for that too with 50% drawdowns occurring on a regular basis. Next it's a "haven" asset that people will rush to in times of crisis except the only time in its tiny history where we had a significant risk-off period, it shed value.

But I don't know why I bother with this stuff - it's hard to know whether I'm talking with someone who is sipping the coolaid or someone who is pressing the bottles into people's hands. Honestly, if you weren't an investor in BTC, would you be spending time defending it? It's absolutely worthless from every perspective - even the technology (cryptographic distributed ledger) is a curiosity and nothing more.


Your view on Ripple?

No strong opinion because I don't know much about it. Do you mean as a technology/platform or the coin?

I think all the current coins are worthless. It costs zero to create them and they deliver no or very little utility. The prices are sustained purely by hype and bullshit.

I used to think the tech was interesting and that there must be novel applications waiting to be discovered but even there I'm skeptical. I don't expect any interesting applications to emerge in the near future. All businesses/companies want to be able to use legal systems to correct mistakes - hard cryptography is simply not an attractive tool in such a world. PKI is an idea that's great in theory but has achieved fudge all traction despite it being around for decades. It's 10 times easier to just roll-out a serverless architecture on the cloud than try to deploy an application built on a distributed ledger.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:57 pm 
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Lightning network grown another 10% this month with capacity up 15% to around 110 BTC.

Interesting video released this weekend paying for a Coke with a QR Code and Lightning Network.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Fb6Xww2P7c


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:52 pm 
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I haven't watched this yet, but I will at some stage. Gilder was THE guru of the 90s - I sort of thought he was dead - but he has a big new theory about blockchain over the cloud.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cidZRD3NzHg


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:26 am 
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Isnt Litecoin the best for maximising the Lightning Network?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:57 am 
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It's all a steaming pile of excrement


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:54 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/nov/20/bitcoin-price-plunges-2018-low-cryptocurrency-value

Another great buying oppurtunity, 4387 dollars


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:57 pm 
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Amazing thread to dip back into. I see I 'predicted' (by pulling some figure out of my arse) this was going to $500. The Spectator did a detailed special section on Crypto last week. Not sure why, and I didn't read it in detail. So there's still things going on.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:59 pm 
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TranceNRG wrote:
Cryptos bouncing back today. I was tempted to buy more the other day but decided not to increase my exposure.


:D :D :D


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:07 pm 
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sewa wrote:
TranceNRG wrote:
Cryptos bouncing back today. I was tempted to buy more the other day but decided not to increase my exposure.


:D :D :D

Image


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:07 pm 
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https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1064878600594305025

The wheelbarrow gives it a Weimar vibe.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:07 pm 
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:shock: :shock: :shock:

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1064878600594305025

fake?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:12 am 
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So, is democracy saved yet?


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:47 pm 
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Surely this thread deserves a bounce? Bitcoin has lost nearly half it's value since goeagles presented that comforting graph. And the other coins (which you were supposed to buy for "diversification") have done even worse.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:52 am 
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But I thought it was supposed to be a currency, not an investment?
I must have missed something :?


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