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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:40 pm 
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fatcat wrote:
JM2K6 wrote:
fatcat wrote:
i.e. growing a population vs shrinking a population


Yes. They're factoring in the bit about over-estimation in their final suggestion.


'Some demographers' think there's an over-estimation. Some demographers.


Yes, which is why that bit is clearly opinion and not fact.

Quote:
They also appear to think that because fertility rates in Muslim countries are declining then it stands to reason that the same will happen in non-muslim majority countries. Their reporting seems somewhat biased to me.


Er, no. This is where your own personal bias is shining through. They believe it'll happen in non-muslim majority countries because they read the studies on non-muslim majority countries:

Quote:
A 2007 study by demographers Charles Westhoff and Tomas Frejka identified the same trend among Muslim immigrant populations in most countries where data was available, including Austria, Slovenia, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland and England and Wales.

The total fertility rate among Muslim women is almost always higher than that of the native population, but “with the passage of time Muslim fertility moves closer to the fertility of the majority of the population in the respective countries”.


The bit about Muslim country birth rates is used as a counter for the idea that there's a cultural reason for higher birth rates:

Quote:
Mr Cooper suggests that there are “strong cultural reasons for higher Muslim birth rates”, but this ignores the fact that birth rates have fallen dramatically in many Muslim countries.


They didn't just apply Muslim-majority data to Muslim-minority countries.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:43 pm 
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The population seems to have grown quite a bit since 2011 census.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1213264 ... -time.html


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:47 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
The population seems to have grown quite a bit since 2011 census.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1213264 ... -time.html


It's increased by 0.6% of the population, or approx 400,000 people.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:47 pm 
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We've covered the important part 2.4 vs 1.8 in 2030, which some demographers don't think is a true representation.

There is no evidence to suggest the muslim rate will come down to the 2.1 which they believe is the line between growing and sustaining a population, whilst at the same time offering nothing to suggest the native rates will increase to anything which will prevent declining numbers in that demographic.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:49 pm 
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Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:49 pm 
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JM2K6 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
The population seems to have grown quite a bit since 2011 census.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1213264 ... -time.html


It's increased by 0.6% of the population, or approx 400,000 people.



In 5 years. The issue demographically it seems would rest on a slowing of immigration to the UK.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:50 pm 
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c69 wrote:
Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well



Why?


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:52 pm 
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HurricaneWasp wrote:
Pretty much the opposite for me (in Wycombe, a town with roughly 20% Muslim population, and large class divides). Social groups were almost always formed based on race, not class, although everyone generally got on well with each other regardless of each.

Similar at my school. The vast majority of the school's non-white contingent (considerably less than 20% as at your school) came out on the train from Harrow together, had lunch together and went home together. Most have disappeared out of contact with the rest of us now. I remember there being some tension in the immediate aftermath of 7/7 but otherwise everyone got on fine but kept to themselves. As a general rule parents of white kids were far more relaxed and happy to let their kids out socialising/chasing skirt than the asian parents were.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:52 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
c69 wrote:
Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well



Why?

Because I am interested to see how other religions are doing on the fertility front.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:53 pm 
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c69 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
c69 wrote:
Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well



Why?

Because I am interested to see how other religions are doing on the fertility front.


Well look it up then.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:54 pm 
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c69 wrote:
Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well



Here are the figures for Hindus and Jews -

Image


http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... ous-group/

Quote:
In the next half century or so, Christianity’s long reign as the world’s largest religion may come to an end, according to a just-released report that builds on Pew Research Center’s original population growth projections for religious groups. Indeed, Muslims will grow more than twice as fast as the overall world population between 2015 and 2060 and, in the second half of this century, will likely surpass Christians as the world’s largest religious group.

While the world’s population is projected to grow 32% in the coming decades, the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 70% – from 1.8 billion in 2015 to nearly 3 billion in 2060. In 2015, Muslims made up 24.1% of the global population. Forty-five years later, they are expected to make up more than three-in-ten of the world’s people (31.1%).

The main reasons for Islam’s growth ultimately involve simple demographics. To begin with, Muslims have more children than members of the seven other major religious groups analyzed in the study. Muslim women have an average of 2.9 children, significantly above the next-highest group (Christians at 2.6) and the average of all non-Muslims (2.2). In all major regions where there is a sizable Muslim population, Muslim fertility exceeds non-Muslim fertility.

The growth of the Muslim population also is helped by the fact that Muslims have the youngest median age (24 in 2015) of all major religious groups, more than seven years younger than the median age of non-Muslims (32).

A larger share of Muslims will soon be at the point in their lives when people begin having children. This, combined with high fertility rates, will accelerate Muslim population growth.

More than a third of Muslims are concentrated in Africa and the Middle East, regions that are projected to have the biggest population increases. But even within these high-growth regions – as well as others – Muslims are projected to grow faster than members of other groups. For example, Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa, on average, are younger and have higher fertility than the overall population of the region. In fact, Muslims are expected to grow as a percentage of every region except Latin America and the Caribbean, where relatively few Muslims live.

The same dynamics hold true in many countries where Muslims live in large numbers alongside other religious groups. For example, India’s number of Muslims is growing at a faster rate than the country’s majority Hindu population, and is projected to rise from 14.9% of India’s 2015 population to 19.4% (or 333 million people) in 2060. And while there were similar numbers of Muslims and Christians in Nigeria as of 2015, Muslims have higher fertility there and are expected to grow to a solid majority of Nigeria’s population (60.5%) in 2060.

Meanwhile, religious switching – which is expected to hinder the growth Christians by an estimated 72 million between 2015 and 2060 – is not expected to have a negative net impact on Muslim population growth.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:54 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
c69 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
c69 wrote:
Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well



Why?

Because I am interested to see how other religions are doing on the fertility front.


Well look it up then.

Why ? Why not discuss other religions birth rates and fertility? It's a thread about multiculturalism.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:55 pm 
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Cheers Taffcat :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:56 pm 
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To what extent is the Muslim birthrate kept high due to low incomes and low educational attainment as compared to other groups? Would be interesting to see how it compares to birthrates in Indian Hindu communities, for example.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:56 pm 
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c69 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
c69 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
c69 wrote:
Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well



Why?

Because I am interested to see how other religions are doing on the fertility front.


Well look it up then.

Why ? Why not discuss other religions birth rates and fertility? It's a thread about multiculturalism.



Of course and I'm sure people are happy to discuss the figures , I just thought you could actually be bothered to do some grunts work considering its your point.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:58 pm 
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croyals wrote:
HurricaneWasp wrote:
Pretty much the opposite for me (in Wycombe, a town with roughly 20% Muslim population, and large class divides). Social groups were almost always formed based on race, not class, although everyone generally got on well with each other regardless of each.

Similar at my school. The vast majority of the school's non-white contingent (considerably less than 20% as at your school) came out on the train from Harrow together, had lunch together and went home together. Most have disappeared out of contact with the rest of us now. I remember there being some tension in the immediate aftermath of 7/7 but otherwise everyone got on fine but kept to themselves. As a general rule parents of white kids were far more relaxed and happy to let their kids out socialising/chasing skirt than the asian parents were.

Yep. I would estimate we had about 30-40 Asians in our year group of 150. Maybe more. They all stuck together which is fair enough. Many of them lived in the same part of town and knew each other distantly already.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:05 pm 
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fatcat wrote:
We've covered the important part 2.4 vs 1.8 in 2030, which some demographers don't think is a true representation.

There is no evidence to suggest the muslim rate will come down to the 2.1 which they believe is the line between growing and sustaining a population, whilst at the same time offering nothing to suggest the native rates will increase to anything which will prevent declining numbers in that demographic.


There's some evidence - the study they cited, allied to the sudden and massive drop in fertility rates in Muslim countries countering the notion that it's an inherently cultural thing.

But let's be clear here: you accused them of bias because you misread what they said, and you're laying into a study that clearly proved that "50% muslim by 2050" is total garbage, because you think their bet on 10% might not be 100% accurate. Why? What are you trying to achieve here? Are you agreeing with englishchief's statements about Muslims in this country?


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:11 pm 
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JM2K6 wrote:
fatcat wrote:
We've covered the important part 2.4 vs 1.8 in 2030, which some demographers don't think is a true representation.

There is no evidence to suggest the muslim rate will come down to the 2.1 which they believe is the line between growing and sustaining a population, whilst at the same time offering nothing to suggest the native rates will increase to anything which will prevent declining numbers in that demographic.


There's some evidence - the study they cited, allied to the sudden and massive drop in fertility rates in Muslim countries countering the notion that it's an inherently cultural thing.

But let's be clear here: you accused them of bias because you misread what they said, and you're laying into a study that clearly proved that "50% muslim by 2050" is total garbage, because you think their bet on 10% might not be 100% accurate. Why? What are you trying to achieve here? Are you agreeing with englishchief's statements about Muslims in this country?


What am I trying to achieve?!! I picked up on something you linked to which didn't ring true, that's all. Anyway, it's not that much of a big deal as they're fact checkers and not researchers. Pew Research offers better data in this sphere.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:24 pm 
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fatcat wrote:
JM2K6 wrote:
fatcat wrote:
We've covered the important part 2.4 vs 1.8 in 2030, which some demographers don't think is a true representation.

There is no evidence to suggest the muslim rate will come down to the 2.1 which they believe is the line between growing and sustaining a population, whilst at the same time offering nothing to suggest the native rates will increase to anything which will prevent declining numbers in that demographic.


There's some evidence - the study they cited, allied to the sudden and massive drop in fertility rates in Muslim countries countering the notion that it's an inherently cultural thing.

But let's be clear here: you accused them of bias because you misread what they said, and you're laying into a study that clearly proved that "50% muslim by 2050" is total garbage, because you think their bet on 10% might not be 100% accurate. Why? What are you trying to achieve here? Are you agreeing with englishchief's statements about Muslims in this country?


What am I trying to achieve?!! I picked up on something you linked to which didn't ring true, that's all. Anyway, it's not that much of a big deal as they're fact checkers and not researchers. Pew Research offers better data in this sphere.


Yes. They quote them and use their data in this article.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:33 pm 
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JM2K6 wrote:
fatcat wrote:
JM2K6 wrote:
fatcat wrote:
We've covered the important part 2.4 vs 1.8 in 2030, which some demographers don't think is a true representation.

There is no evidence to suggest the muslim rate will come down to the 2.1 which they believe is the line between growing and sustaining a population, whilst at the same time offering nothing to suggest the native rates will increase to anything which will prevent declining numbers in that demographic.


There's some evidence - the study they cited, allied to the sudden and massive drop in fertility rates in Muslim countries countering the notion that it's an inherently cultural thing.

But let's be clear here: you accused them of bias because you misread what they said, and you're laying into a study that clearly proved that "50% muslim by 2050" is total garbage, because you think their bet on 10% might not be 100% accurate. Why? What are you trying to achieve here? Are you agreeing with englishchief's statements about Muslims in this country?


What am I trying to achieve?!! I picked up on something you linked to which didn't ring true, that's all. Anyway, it's not that much of a big deal as they're fact checkers and not researchers. Pew Research offers better data in this sphere.


Yes. They quote them and use their data in this article.


Not all their data is from Pew, and they appear to have failed to take into account Pew's view that Muslim populations are expected to expand until at least 2070.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:34 pm 
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Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:36 pm 
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My muslim pal has a muslim wife.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:38 pm 
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cubby boi wrote:
Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

Err loads of friends who are Muslim with Muslim partners and children.
Some even drink alcohol and eat bacon :o


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:06 pm 
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cubby boi wrote:
Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?


My wife is Muslim. Non-practising though.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:06 pm 
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c69 wrote:
cubby boi wrote:
Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

Err loads of friends who are Muslim with Muslim partners and children.
Some even drink alcohol and eat bacon :o


Yes, i'm talking about non muslim with a Muslim c69, but I think you knew that.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:08 pm 
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croyals wrote:
To what extent is the Muslim birthrate kept high due to low incomes and low educational attainment as compared to other groups? Would be interesting to see how it compares to birthrates in Indian Hindu communities, for example.


They'll do well to produce more than Catholics, surely.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:10 pm 
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robmatic wrote:
cubby boi wrote:
Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?


My wife is Muslim. Non-practising though.


Did she stop practising when she met you or before hand? How did her family take the two of you hooking up?

Don't answer if it's a bit personal...


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:17 pm 
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cubby boi wrote:
robmatic wrote:
cubby boi wrote:
Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?


My wife is Muslim. Non-practising though.


Did she stop practising when she met you or before hand? How did her family take the two of you hooking up?

Don't answer if it's a bit personal...


Beforehand, I suppose. It's not as if you spend much time in the mosque when you're female anyway. Her family were fine with it. If I hadn't been well-educated etc. they might have disapproved.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:21 pm 
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cubby boi wrote:
c69 wrote:
cubby boi wrote:
Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

Err loads of friends who are Muslim with Muslim partners and children.
Some even drink alcohol and eat bacon :o


Yes, i'm talking about non muslim with a Muslim c69, but I think you knew that.

Nope had no idea you meant that


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:24 pm 
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cubby boi wrote:
c69 wrote:
cubby boi wrote:
Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

Err loads of friends who are Muslim with Muslim partners and children.
Some even drink alcohol and eat bacon :o


Yes, i'm talking about non muslim with a Muslim c69, but I think you knew that.

I've got friends with muslim partners. I think JTB's partner was muslim but she might have converted to WBC i'm not sure


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:35 pm 
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robmatic wrote:
cubby boi wrote:
robmatic wrote:
cubby boi wrote:
Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?


My wife is Muslim. Non-practising though.


Did she stop practising when she met you or before hand? How did her family take the two of you hooking up?

Don't answer if it's a bit personal...


Beforehand, I suppose. It's not as if you spend much time in the mosque when you're female anyway. Her family were fine with it. If I hadn't been well-educated etc. they might have disapproved.


Interesting. Are you British / muslim? Were her parents practicing Muslims?

I have a friend who had a Muslim girlfriend in school untill sixth form. She insisted on keeping it a strict secret from her family. Her brother found out about it and went nuts at her ( behind closed doors) and threatened to tell her parents if she didn't stop. Anyway, such was the fear of her parents finding out she eventually ended it. It was really sad stuff as they were real childhood sweat heart types and they were both in bits. It really shocked all of us as we were a relatively small town with few Muslims and such and had no idea that people who seemed so nice and normal (her dad was a local doctor, and her brother was in the same school and seemed completely sound) could react so discriminately.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:44 pm 
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cubby boi wrote:

Interesting. Are you British / muslim? Were her parents practicing Muslims?

I have a friend who had a Muslim girlfriend in school untill sixth form. She insisted on keeping it a strict secret from her family. Her brother found out about it and went nuts at her ( behind closed doors) and threatened to tell her parents if she didn't stop. Anyway, such was the fear of her parents finding out she eventually ended it. It was really sad stuff as they were real childhood sweat heart types and they were both in bits. It really shocked all of us as we were a relatively small town with few Muslims and such and had no idea that people who seemed so nice and normal (her dad was a local doctor, and her brother was in the same school and seemed completely sound) could react so discriminately.


I'm British. From Yorkshire and Methodist to be more precise.

My wife and her family are Turkish, and generally I would say that they are just conservative in a Mediterranean way. Like Greeks or Italians.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:49 pm 
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A mate of mine had a muslim partner. I used to meet them occasionally out drinking 20-25 years ago.
At the time I didn't realise the cultural significance of what they were going through. My mate never married her, and they separated after their first baby. Despite that during her family occasions that he attended with their child she used to introduce him to everyone as her husband. During this time despite being seperated he was also regularly shagging her. He went on to have 4 children with her, but never actually moved back in. At some stage he got totally sick of her still considering him as her husband, so never saw her again. From the experience of a muslim guy I got to know who was shagging a Brazilian girl, I realise that often muslims introducing someone as being married to them is a practically meaningless concept, but they want to avoid comments re adultry, and whoring.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:32 pm 
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cubby boi wrote:
Interesting. Are you British / muslim? Were her parents practicing Muslims?

I have a friend who had a Muslim girlfriend in school untill sixth form. She insisted on keeping it a strict secret from her family. Her brother found out about it and went nuts at her ( behind closed doors) and threatened to tell her parents if she didn't stop. Anyway, such was the fear of her parents finding out she eventually ended it. It was really sad stuff as they were real childhood sweat heart types and they were both in bits. It really shocked all of us as we were a relatively small town with few Muslims and such and had no idea that people who seemed so nice and normal (her dad was a local doctor, and her brother was in the same school and seemed completely sound) could react so discriminately.

A friend of mine did too and she used to show him pictures of the Pakistani she had already been promised to in an arranged marriage (14/15 at the time).


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:51 pm 
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lol this again. Look, all you need to know is if you say multiculturalism is bad, even if you've got overwhelming evidence of it you're on the bad guys side. If you say it's a good thing, even if well ya don't really believe it in your gut all that much and keep seeing its, ehh, "limits" or worse yet..troubles ?.. you're part of the good guys.

It's aaaaaaaaaaaaall just a matter of being either part of the good guys, or being part of the bad guys. That's it.

Yes, Britain is multicultural. :nod: It's also not going to exist anymore in a little bit of time if things continue the way they're going. :o


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