Planet Rugby Forum

fatcat wrote:

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:

FactCheck wouldn’t bet on the British Muslim population ever topping 10 per cent, let alone 50 per cent.

That's odd considering they predict Britain will be 8.1% muslim by 2030 and that the fertility rate of native women is not enough to sustain the population.

But they also say Muslim fertility rates will fall.

Yes but they're still predicting it to be 2.5 by 2030 - enough to grow their population.

bimboman wrote:

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:

FactCheck wouldn’t bet on the British Muslim population ever topping 10 per cent, let alone 50 per cent.

That's odd considering they predict Britain will be 8.1% muslim by 2030 and that the fertility rate of native women is not enough to sustain the population.

But they also say Muslim fertility rates will fall.

Convieniant.

London_Lurker wrote:

slick wrote:

croyals wrote:

cubby boi wrote:

englishchief wrote:Britain is multicultural in the main cities like London and Birmingham, which no longer have the impression of even being British, which I find quite sad. Sure, people from other countries are welcome (in small numbers), but would you really be comfortable in a Britain where less than 50% of the population are native Brits and the majority of women are wearing a burka?

But are London and Birmingham multicultural? There seems to be virtually complete voluntary segregation in both.

I don't think that's particularly fair in many parts of London.

That said my girlfriend lives in Mile End, the two communities get on absolutely fine but do seem to have a habit of socialising in entirely different places. Have to say I think alcohol consumption (or lack of) is the major factor.

That's the thing though, people live in mixed areas, mix happily at work and in school time but away from places like that they don't. Look at any school at kicking out time and it's groups of white kids and groups of black kids, you very rarely see mixed groups. Look at pubs or groups in the park at weekends and there is very little mixing.

No one is to blame, it's just human I guess.

I got home today walking past loads of multi-racial groups of kids mixing in the way you claim doesn't really happen.

The real segregation in London is the same as ever: class. I went to a private school with black, asian, chinese kids who I had loads more in common with than I would have done with white kids in a council block.

The only working class people I know are people I'm related to. I'm not proud of that, but its a fact.

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:

FactCheck wouldn’t bet on the British Muslim population ever topping 10 per cent, let alone 50 per cent.

That's odd considering they predict Britain will be 8.1% muslim by 2030 and that the fertility rate of native women is not enough to sustain the population.

But they also say Muslim fertility rates will fall.

Yes but they're still predicting it to be 2.5 by 2030 - enough to grow their population.

2.5 vs 1.8 for non-Muslims. Add in the disagreement over total fertility rate being over-estimated thanks to the nature of fresh immigrants having kids soon after arriving... it's clear they think it'll be anything to worry about.

We're still a long, long, long way from majority Muslim population, though.

fatcat wrote:i.e. growing a population vs shrinking a population

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:i.e. growing a population vs shrinking a population

Yes. They're factoring in the bit about over-estimation in their final suggestion.

fatcat wrote:

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:i.e. growing a population vs shrinking a population

Yes. They're factoring in the bit about over-estimation in their final suggestion.

'Some demographers' think there's an over-estimation. Some demographers.

They also appear to think that because fertility rates in Muslim countries are declining then it stands to reason that the same will happen in non-muslim majority countries. Their reporting seems somewhat biased to me.

A 2007 study by demographers Charles Westhoff and Tomas Frejka identified the same trend among Muslim immigrant populations in most countries where data was available, including Austria, Slovenia, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland and England and Wales.

The total fertility rate among Muslim women is almost always higher than that of the native population, but “with the passage of time Muslim fertility moves closer to the fertility of the majority of the population in the respective countries”.

Mr Cooper suggests that there are “strong cultural reasons for higher Muslim birth rates”, but this ignores the fact that birth rates have fallen dramatically in many Muslim countries.

bimboman wrote:The population seems to have grown quite a bit since 2011 census.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1213264 ... -time.html

JM2K6 wrote:

bimboman wrote:The population seems to have grown quite a bit since 2011 census.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1213264 ... -time.html

It's increased by 0.6% of the population, or approx 400,000 people.

c69 wrote:Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well

HurricaneWasp wrote: Pretty much the opposite for me (in Wycombe, a town with roughly 20% Muslim population, and large class divides). Social groups were almost always formed based on race, not class, although everyone generally got on well with each other regardless of each.

c69 wrote:

bimboman wrote:

c69 wrote:Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well

Why?

Because I am interested to see how other religions are doing on the fertility front.

c69 wrote:Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well

In the next half century or so, Christianity’s long reign as the world’s largest religion may come to an end, according to a just-released report that builds on Pew Research Center’s original population growth projections for religious groups. Indeed, Muslims will grow more than twice as fast as the overall world population between 2015 and 2060 and, in the second half of this century, will likely surpass Christians as the world’s largest religious group.

While the world’s population is projected to grow 32% in the coming decades, the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 70% – from 1.8 billion in 2015 to nearly 3 billion in 2060. In 2015, Muslims made up 24.1% of the global population. Forty-five years later, they are expected to make up more than three-in-ten of the world’s people (31.1%).

The main reasons for Islam’s growth ultimately involve simple demographics. To begin with, Muslims have more children than members of the seven other major religious groups analyzed in the study. Muslim women have an average of 2.9 children, significantly above the next-highest group (Christians at 2.6) and the average of all non-Muslims (2.2). In all major regions where there is a sizable Muslim population, Muslim fertility exceeds non-Muslim fertility.

The growth of the Muslim population also is helped by the fact that Muslims have the youngest median age (24 in 2015) of all major religious groups, more than seven years younger than the median age of non-Muslims (32).

A larger share of Muslims will soon be at the point in their lives when people begin having children. This, combined with high fertility rates, will accelerate Muslim population growth.

More than a third of Muslims are concentrated in Africa and the Middle East, regions that are projected to have the biggest population increases. But even within these high-growth regions – as well as others – Muslims are projected to grow faster than members of other groups. For example, Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa, on average, are younger and have higher fertility than the overall population of the region. In fact, Muslims are expected to grow as a percentage of every region except Latin America and the Caribbean, where relatively few Muslims live.

The same dynamics hold true in many countries where Muslims live in large numbers alongside other religious groups. For example, India’s number of Muslims is growing at a faster rate than the country’s majority Hindu population, and is projected to rise from 14.9% of India’s 2015 population to 19.4% (or 333 million people) in 2060. And while there were similar numbers of Muslims and Christians in Nigeria as of 2015, Muslims have higher fertility there and are expected to grow to a solid majority of Nigeria’s population (60.5%) in 2060.

Meanwhile, religious switching – which is expected to hinder the growth Christians by an estimated 72 million between 2015 and 2060 – is not expected to have a negative net impact on Muslim population growth.

c69 wrote:

bimboman wrote:

c69 wrote:

bimboman wrote:

c69 wrote:Can someone post the figures for Sikhs and Hindus and Jews please.
Oh throw in Buddhists as well

Why?

Because I am interested to see how other religions are doing on the fertility front.

Well look it up then.

Why ? Why not discuss other religions birth rates and fertility? It's a thread about multiculturalism.

croyals wrote:

HurricaneWasp wrote: Pretty much the opposite for me (in Wycombe, a town with roughly 20% Muslim population, and large class divides). Social groups were almost always formed based on race, not class, although everyone generally got on well with each other regardless of each.

Similar at my school. The vast majority of the school's non-white contingent (considerably less than 20% as at your school) came out on the train from Harrow together, had lunch together and went home together. Most have disappeared out of contact with the rest of us now. I remember there being some tension in the immediate aftermath of 7/7 but otherwise everyone got on fine but kept to themselves. As a general rule parents of white kids were far more relaxed and happy to let their kids out socialising/chasing skirt than the asian parents were.

fatcat wrote:We've covered the important part 2.4 vs 1.8 in 2030, which some demographers don't think is a true representation.

There is no evidence to suggest the muslim rate will come down to the 2.1 which they believe is the line between growing and sustaining a population, whilst at the same time offering nothing to suggest the native rates will increase to anything which will prevent declining numbers in that demographic.

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:We've covered the important part 2.4 vs 1.8 in 2030, which some demographers don't think is a true representation.

There is no evidence to suggest the muslim rate will come down to the 2.1 which they believe is the line between growing and sustaining a population, whilst at the same time offering nothing to suggest the native rates will increase to anything which will prevent declining numbers in that demographic.

There's some evidence - the study they cited, allied to the sudden and massive drop in fertility rates in Muslim countries countering the notion that it's an inherently cultural thing.

But let's be clear here: you accused them of bias because you misread what they said, and you're laying into a study that clearly proved that "50% muslim by 2050" is total garbage, because you think their bet on 10% might not be 100% accurate. Why? What are you trying to achieve here? Are you agreeing with englishchief's statements about Muslims in this country?

fatcat wrote:

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:We've covered the important part 2.4 vs 1.8 in 2030, which some demographers don't think is a true representation.

There is no evidence to suggest the muslim rate will come down to the 2.1 which they believe is the line between growing and sustaining a population, whilst at the same time offering nothing to suggest the native rates will increase to anything which will prevent declining numbers in that demographic.

There's some evidence - the study they cited, allied to the sudden and massive drop in fertility rates in Muslim countries countering the notion that it's an inherently cultural thing.

But let's be clear here: you accused them of bias because you misread what they said, and you're laying into a study that clearly proved that "50% muslim by 2050" is total garbage, because you think their bet on 10% might not be 100% accurate. Why? What are you trying to achieve here? Are you agreeing with englishchief's statements about Muslims in this country?

What am I trying to achieve?!! I picked up on something you linked to which didn't ring true, that's all. Anyway, it's not that much of a big deal as they're fact checkers and not researchers. Pew Research offers better data in this sphere.

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:

JM2K6 wrote:

fatcat wrote:We've covered the important part 2.4 vs 1.8 in 2030, which some demographers don't think is a true representation.

There is no evidence to suggest the muslim rate will come down to the 2.1 which they believe is the line between growing and sustaining a population, whilst at the same time offering nothing to suggest the native rates will increase to anything which will prevent declining numbers in that demographic.

There's some evidence - the study they cited, allied to the sudden and massive drop in fertility rates in Muslim countries countering the notion that it's an inherently cultural thing.

But let's be clear here: you accused them of bias because you misread what they said, and you're laying into a study that clearly proved that "50% muslim by 2050" is total garbage, because you think their bet on 10% might not be 100% accurate. Why? What are you trying to achieve here? Are you agreeing with englishchief's statements about Muslims in this country?

What am I trying to achieve?!! I picked up on something you linked to which didn't ring true, that's all. Anyway, it's not that much of a big deal as they're fact checkers and not researchers. Pew Research offers better data in this sphere.

Yes. They quote them and use their data in this article.

cubby boi wrote:Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

c69 wrote:

cubby boi wrote:Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

Err loads of friends who are Muslim with Muslim partners and children.
Some even drink alcohol and eat bacon

croyals wrote:To what extent is the Muslim birthrate kept high due to low incomes and low educational attainment as compared to other groups? Would be interesting to see how it compares to birthrates in Indian Hindu communities, for example.

robmatic wrote:

cubby boi wrote:Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

My wife is Muslim. Non-practising though.

cubby boi wrote:

robmatic wrote:

cubby boi wrote:Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

My wife is Muslim. Non-practising though.

Did she stop practising when she met you or before hand? How did her family take the two of you hooking up?

Don't answer if it's a bit personal...

cubby boi wrote:

c69 wrote:

cubby boi wrote:Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

Err loads of friends who are Muslim with Muslim partners and children.
Some even drink alcohol and eat bacon

Yes, i'm talking about non muslim with a Muslim c69, but I think you knew that.

robmatic wrote:

cubby boi wrote:

robmatic wrote:

cubby boi wrote:Does anyone here have a practising Muslim partner/girlfriend/wife or have a friend with one?

My wife is Muslim. Non-practising though.

Did she stop practising when she met you or before hand? How did her family take the two of you hooking up?

Don't answer if it's a bit personal...

Beforehand, I suppose. It's not as if you spend much time in the mosque when you're female anyway. Her family were fine with it. If I hadn't been well-educated etc. they might have disapproved.

cubby boi wrote:
Interesting. Are you British / muslim? Were her parents practicing Muslims?

I have a friend who had a Muslim girlfriend in school untill sixth form. She insisted on keeping it a strict secret from her family. Her brother found out about it and went nuts at her ( behind closed doors) and threatened to tell her parents if she didn't stop. Anyway, such was the fear of her parents finding out she eventually ended it. It was really sad stuff as they were real childhood sweat heart types and they were both in bits. It really shocked all of us as we were a relatively small town with few Muslims and such and had no idea that people who seemed so nice and normal (her dad was a local doctor, and her brother was in the same school and seemed completely sound) could react so discriminately.

cubby boi wrote:Interesting. Are you British / muslim? Were her parents practicing Muslims?

I have a friend who had a Muslim girlfriend in school untill sixth form. She insisted on keeping it a strict secret from her family. Her brother found out about it and went nuts at her ( behind closed doors) and threatened to tell her parents if she didn't stop. Anyway, such was the fear of her parents finding out she eventually ended it. It was really sad stuff as they were real childhood sweat heart types and they were both in bits. It really shocked all of us as we were a relatively small town with few Muslims and such and had no idea that people who seemed so nice and normal (her dad was a local doctor, and her brother was in the same school and seemed completely sound) could react so discriminately.