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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:41 pm 
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feckwanker wrote:
Looks like another storm developing out in the Atlantic at the moment. MT Cranium reckons there is only a 30% chance it'll hit but if it does it could be strong enough. It's predicted to hit Friday night/Saturday morning.

That apparently has dissipated.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:52 pm 
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paddyor wrote:
feckwanker wrote:
Looks like another storm developing out in the Atlantic at the moment. MT Cranium reckons there is only a 30% chance it'll hit but if it does it could be strong enough. It's predicted to hit Friday night/Saturday morning.

That apparently has dissipated.

Good to hear :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:12 pm 
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Drove to cork from dingle this morning, had to go a very indirect route as all tge roads through Killarney and beyond through macroom were blocked. It was strange how scerene it was, didn't see any signs of damage until after Mallow, then quite a lot of trees down, some were over the hard shoulder and on to the road, a few abandoned cars as well.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:28 pm 
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Atlantic low due in Fri/Sat. The Euro has the strongest winds progged for the southern side of the storm, so Ireland 'should' escape the worst. Likely to get pretty breezy in southern/central England though
Image


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:48 pm 
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Nolanator wrote:
normilet wrote:
Got married yesterday in kildare. Supposed to have a BBQ on in the venue today but they cancelled it at midnight because of this feckin thing. Plus side is I was against the idea in the first place so that refund is very welcome ha. Hope flight to new york tmo isn't cancelled though.


Congrats! Why did I see you online on PS4 earlier?


Thanks lads. Ah since the BBQ was cancelled we went home, missus KO'd and I had a few Guinness and Netflix. In Manhattan atm, a pleasant 16 degrees, everyone walking around with gloves and scarves on, I feel woefully unprepared!


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:55 pm 
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:thumbup:
Enjoy. Thought a bit of shooting people the day after your wedding was a strange mix!


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:56 pm 
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De Damp Slaphead wrote:
Atlantic low due in Fri/Sat. The Euro has the strongest winds progged for the southern side of the storm, so Ireland 'should' escape the worst. Likely to get pretty breezy in southern/central England though
Image


Image

Image

Two maps there. One is the jet stream 11km up and the 2nd is the surface .

The deeping of this low is due to what you can see on the 1st chart. You can see as the jet stream loops north eastward from the trough there is divergence. The arrows are getting further apart. Laws of physics ensure that if there is divergence 11km in the sky, then that will cause convergence at the surface an ever lower pressure at the surface as the air there needs to rise up to replace the air diverging at upper levels. This is what strengthens the storm

This is a classic mid latitude low pressure cyclone. Going to be very windy over Cornwall, Devon and much of southern England. I wonder what Micheal Fish has to say this Friday on netweather.tv


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:06 pm 
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If you're not safe in a lighthouse...
Kinsale's lighthouse family: 'Monday was the scariest day of our lives' http://jrnl.ie/3654508


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:48 pm 
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Nolanator wrote:
:thumbup:
Enjoy. Thought a bit of shooting people the day after your wedding was a strange mix!


Spot the unmarried man...


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:40 pm 
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https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-n ... d-15089277

Apologies for crap source:

Quote:
A dramatic satellite image has just been released that shows a possible storm STRONGER than Ophelia could be heading for Ireland next month.

A weather centre in America shared a picture of a predicted 'tropical cyclone' in the Northern Atlantic close to Ireland.

They claim it is likely to form over the next 14 days with a central pressure as strong 943mb. If correct, this would make it a category FOUR hurricane - with five being the strongest.

In comparison, Storm Ophelia which battered Ireland last October, was a category three.

The possible upcoming storm was predicted by the Joint Cyclone Centre in Florida, who give forecasts based on tropical weather outlooks for cyclones, storms, hurricanes and typhoons.

They wrote on Twitter on Wednesday: "Over the next 14 days, we do not normally see the weird tropical cyclones as strong as #Ophelia form in this part of the Northern Atlantic with a central pressure of 943mb, as the same of the equivalent in Category 4 hurricanes."

Met Eireann don't provide long range forecasts and therefore cannot confirm this possible storm.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:41 pm 
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Ah fudge off


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:45 pm 
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September the new normal? Bollocks to that


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:48 pm 
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Fairly low probability at this stage, although the Cape Verde Islands are right in the way in the shorter term.

Image


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:45 pm 
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Everything coming from Africa is stronger.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:06 pm 
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Iarmhiman is gone into training


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:15 pm 
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tabascoboy wrote:
Fairly low probability at this stage, although the Cape Verde Islands are right in the way in the shorter term.

Image


Too early to say that it will go north-west like that. It all depends on the Azores high and how it sets up. I think the tropical wave will move west towards the Caribbean for the first few days.

There is no vertical wind shear so the wave will develop into a hurricane no doubt. End of next week will be interesting . All depends on the position of the High then.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,17.93,438

In the link above, there is a area of calm south of that substropical jet, and that is where tropical development will take place.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:58 pm 
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Any news. How is the kids trampoline looking?


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:26 pm 
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How is a cyclone in the North Atlantic termed a tropical cyclone?


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:54 am 
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Because they originate in the tropics?


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:11 pm 
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"Florence" is now officially a hurricane. There's a few days yet until it reaches Bermuda and then we will see where the track takes it. Afterwards it will become extra-tropical and then become a North Atlantic depression which may or may not veer towards Ireland and the UK, or further north towards Iceland, or just weaken and dissipate in the Atlantic somewhere if there is a block.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:02 am 
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Well, now looks like what will be ex-Hurricane Helene could be coming our way early next week, though to the south of Ireland....

Image

Another model run pushed it to the west of Ireland though.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:15 am 
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Hurricane Florence now a cat 4 hurricane and heading for the Carolinas.

Image

Going to strike as a Cat 5 possibly. Serious storm surge and winds.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:24 am 
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tabascoboy wrote:
Well, now looks like what will be ex-Hurricane Helene could be coming our way early next week, though to the south of Ireland....

Image

Another model run pushed it to the west of Ireland though.


Won't be like last year.

That storm will lose its tropical characteristics once it passes the Azores.

Last year it was a tropical storm right up until it hit Fastnet.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:27 am 
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So a bit of wind and rain.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:30 am 
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Usual Autumnal gales and rain.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:31 am 
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Keep an eye on that storm Florence heading for the US east coast.

Models have it stalling over the North Carolina after landing. Going to be catastrophic flooding if that's the case.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:40 am 
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iarmhiman wrote:
tabascoboy wrote:
Well, now looks like what will be ex-Hurricane Helene could be coming our way early next week, though to the south of Ireland....

Image

Another model run pushed it to the west of Ireland though.


Won't be like last year.

That storm will lose its tropical characteristics once it passes the Azores.

Last year it was a tropical storm right up until it hit Fastnet.

If this particular run is correct it will keep some of its tropical characteristics, pushing very warm upper air to its NE and 70mph+ wind speeds in the Channel and a very high amount of precipitation. However it's just one run and not necessarily the right outcome. A later run has it running into NW Spain to give central Spain a total drenching.

Florence is really the biggie though and the one to be concerned about for the Carolinas.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:57 pm 
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iarmhiman wrote:
Hurricane Florence now a cat 4 hurricane and heading for the Carolinas.

Image

Going to strike as a Cat 5 possibly. Serious storm surge and winds.

Unusual that it was Cat 4, lost hurricane status and then reorganised to Cat 4 again?


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:11 pm 
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iarmhiman wrote:
Keep an eye on that storm Florence heading for the US east coast.

Models have it stalling over the North Carolina after landing. Going to be catastrophic flooding if that's the case.


BIL lives in Raleigh. Might be an interesting time for him!!


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:41 pm 
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Uncle Fester wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
Hurricane Florence now a cat 4 hurricane and heading for the Carolinas.

Image

Going to strike as a Cat 5 possibly. Serious storm surge and winds.

Unusual that it was Cat 4, lost hurricane status and then reorganised to Cat 4 again?


Not unusual at all Fester.

Wind sheer weakens hurricanes. Florence encountered verticle wind sheer in the form of the subtropical jet stream.

Hurricanes need the following to develop:

warm water: 28 degrees minimum
No verticle wind sheer: Verticle wind sheer is wind speed changing with height so if the hurricane encounters the a powerful force of wind 11km in the sky it will blow the top off the hurricane and destroy it's latent heat distrubution which powers the storm
Corialis force: hurricanes need to form far enough north or south of the equator to get that spin.


Once Florence got into a region of light winds aloft at 250hPa, the storm could redevelop.

The storm is in even warmer waters now and will have little or no wind sheer for the next few days. Could turn out to be a monster of a hurricane as all the ingredients are there now for explosive development.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:54 am 
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Image


Image

hmm Hurricane Helene on this latest model looks as it it will get absorbed into an upper low next Tuesday and there is quite a bit of wind impact for the South West and west going by that model.

National hurricane Centre has it degrading to a tropical storm but this will go post tropical by the time it reaches us but could still bring some very strong gales to south West of Ireland.

Image


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:51 am 
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Piece of cardboard came out of nowhere this morning and got stuck in my wipers when I was driving along Terenure Road West.

Genuinely frightening, couldn't see anything. Had to pull over and take it off, thankfully no cars around or I'd have been toast.

Also, pretty grim:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/n ... 32432.html

Quote:
A caravan believed to have a woman in her 50s inside has blown off a cliff in Co Galway this morning.

Gardai told Independent.ie emergency services are currently at the scene and are trying to access the woman.

The incident happened at Claddaghduff.

A garda spokesman said emergency services are having difficulty accessing the caravan as it is in water.

Forecasters warned yesterday and earlier this morning that Storm Ali is set to bring "severe and possibly damaging gusts of up to 130km/h" to some areas of the country.

They advised "extreme caution" in the coastal areas of Clare, Connacht and Donegal.

Forecaster Liz Walsh told RTE Radio One's Morning Ireland that forecasters reissued their Status Orange warning this morning, after noting that gusts could reach 130km/h in some parts.

"It's been quite a stormy start to the day so far," Ms Walsh said.

"We issued another warning after a late revision of wind speeds, there could be winds in the coastal district of Dingle right up to Malin Head in excess of 130km/h.

"The winds will be less severe further inland but they should not be underestimated."

Meanwhile, motorists are being urged to take care as fallen trees are being reported in Mayo, Longford, Galway, Kerry and Cork.

Gardai are advising motorists in Claremorris, Co Mayo "not to travel" due to a large number of fallen trees.

"Road conditions are dangerous across the country," AA Roadwatch said.

Met Éireann issued a forecast statement this morning, writing; "Storm Ali will track close to the west and northwest coast this morning.

"South to southwest winds veering westerly will reach mean speeds between 65 and 80km/h and gusts between 110km/h and 130 km/h for a time.

"Gusts in excess of 130 km/h are possible in coastal regions of the west and northwest. The core of strong winds will be along Atlantic coasts at first, before transferring quickly eastwards during the morning."

The Status Orange warning applies to Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Clare and Kerry. A Status Yellow warning is in place for every other county.

The warning will be valid from 5am this morning until 1pm lunchtime.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:12 am 
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Can’t imagine anybody surviving that.
Hopefully a miracle escape.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:13 am 
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Very wild here atm, and we’ve lost our electricity, with trees down everywhere. Our patio umbrella, which was furled up, has bent in two, and we have a tree down in the garden. Seems to be easing off a little now, thankfully.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:13 am 
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Ok this was probably bad taste


Last edited by Diego on Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:14 am 
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Confirmed she didn't make it unfortunately.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:17 am 
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It's pretty bonkers out, I dunno about everyone else but in Dublin it seems worse than Ophelia.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:19 am 
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Was nearly twatted by a very large branch walking through Herbert Park this morning. This seems a lot more violent than the winds we had last season. Or maybe that's because I didnt venture out those days.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:31 am 
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normilet wrote:
Confirmed she didn't make it unfortunately.


RIP.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:18 am 
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This is a fairly potent storm. A classic mid latitude cyclone.

Looks like we could be getting an even worse one on Sunday. Keeping an eye on that one as well.


Image

If it turns out like that Dublin could get a bit of a surge


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