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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:58 am 
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Jay Cee Gee wrote:
What's 3% gonna get her though? A bit more exposure, but no real chance of getting the nom.

A place on someone else's ticket as VP maybe?



Mark Shields pointed out on PBS Newshour the other day that at the equivalent time in the last Presidential cycle, Drumpf was at 1%.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:08 am 
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wamberal99 wrote:
Jay Cee Gee wrote:
What's 3% gonna get her though? A bit more exposure, but no real chance of getting the nom.

A place on someone else's ticket as VP maybe?



Mark Shields pointed out on PBS Newshour the other day that at the equivalent time in the last Presidential cycle, Drumpf was at 1%.


That is inaccurate. He never polled worse than 2nd after he announced his candidacy by coming down the golden escalator (June 2015), and he was doubling and tripling his nearest rivals (Jeb and Ben Carson... :lol: ) by this point in 2015. Fun link.

It will be one of Biden, Bernie, Warren, or Harris. That is not to say the underdogs have no role to play, but their face won't be on the posters this time next year.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:26 am 
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https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-de ... aseID=2264

Trump's lead was double that of Gabbard's share at a similar stage.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 1:36 pm 
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Ewinkum wrote:
Jay Cee Gee wrote:
Ewinkum wrote:
Jay Cee Gee wrote:
What's 3% gonna get her though? A bit more exposure, but no real chance of getting the nom.

A place on someone else's ticket as VP maybe?


Not much really.
She’s looking for 2% or more in 4 polls so that she can qualify for the 3rd round of debates.
She already has Ecconomist/yougov in the bag so nothing gained there.
Might be an indicator of upward movement in other polls though.
I’d like to see her make it.


Sure, but even then she's not really a contender. No one's gonna turn 3% into the nomination at this stage, so what's the real goal?


She’s the perfect VP for Sanders.
The longer she lasts (in the short term), the better.
The progressives have done an incredible job of mainstreaming their message this time around, and the sheer number of progressive candidates is largely responsible for that.
It’s hard to call Bernie crazy when he’s surrounded by others running on his ticket.


I hope she lasts as well. I assume KH was picked as the obligatory Dem stooge because she's, well, a good Democrat and corporate stooge and ticks identity politics criteria and the Dems assumed that ropes in a minority vote automatically but once again fails to understand ID politics aren't the case they were in the public as the media. As said OBama being the first black President was important to people, bu after that it's politics as usual. But rather like their assumptions with Clinton they seem to fail to realise she has a past that people don't like and it will damage her.

As Tulsi as VP? I'd be happy but perhaps as a Secretary of State. It's her foreign policy appeal I think is important. I still feel, while I'm not a personal fan, is the person who will do the best with corporate and Wall Street corruption in politics. It's her field and it's vitally important task to reign in. I'd be happy with Sanders as the candidate Warren as VP and Tulsi and sec for state.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:43 pm 
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So Gabbard has endorsements from David Duke, The Daily Stormer and SoTN so far? Interesting.

Warren is, according to politico, building a monster ground game in Nevada.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:44 pm 
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RWC2015 wrote:
So Gabbard has endorsements from David Duke, The Daily Stormer and SoTN so far? Interesting.

Warren is, according to politico, building a monster ground game in Nevada.


I've endorsed marianne you dick.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:48 pm 
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Seneca of the Night wrote:
RWC2015 wrote:
So Gabbard has endorsements from David Duke, The Daily Stormer and SoTN so far? Interesting.

Warren is, according to politico, building a monster ground game in Nevada.


I've endorsed marianne you dick.


You know when she talked about a 'dark psychic force' she was against it, right?


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:49 pm 
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penguin wrote:
Seneca of the Night wrote:
RWC2015 wrote:
So Gabbard has endorsements from David Duke, The Daily Stormer and SoTN so far? Interesting.

Warren is, according to politico, building a monster ground game in Nevada.


I've endorsed marianne you dick.


You know when she talked about a 'dark psychic force' she was against it, right?

:lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:00 pm 
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RWC2015 wrote:
So Gabbard has endorsements from David Duke, The Daily Stormer and SoTN so far? Interesting.

Warren is, according to politico, building a monster ground game in Nevada.


Your boy Beto would probably be happy with an endorsement from anybody at this point.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:38 pm 
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fonzeee wrote:
RWC2015 wrote:
So Gabbard has endorsements from David Duke, The Daily Stormer and SoTN so far? Interesting.

Warren is, according to politico, building a monster ground game in Nevada.


Your boy Beto would probably be happy with an endorsement from anybody at this point.


? Go back and check my earliest posts on here: Warren Warren Warren. I defo thought Beto would do better, but Buttigieg clearly stole his thunder. Pity. I think he's very likable. But ultimately his weaknesses have been exposed I suppose.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:41 pm 
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Really interesting poll from Texas. Biden beats Trump there by two points but so does Bernie. :shock:

Warren is -4 and so is Beto. He should clearly drop out at this point. His strength was supposed to be that he could flip all of those electoral votes.

Image


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:55 pm 
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Harris falling like a stone in the polls too. Crisis averted :thumbup:

While it's still too early to really be fixated on the polls, it can be helpful to track whose support is going where...unsurprisingly, Kamala's seems to have gone mainly to Joe.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:01 am 
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Still think Harris could make a space for herself as a VP for Biden Or Bernie with a good showing in the main race. Don't think Gabbard has any chance as VP on current form tbh.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:18 am 
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Bernie's talk with JR has over 5 million viewers now and still trending at no 1 on YouTube, apparently.
Hopefully that means a couple of more voters for the Bern.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:39 am 
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Bokkom wrote:
Bernie's talk with JR has over 5 million viewers now and still trending at no 1 on YouTube, apparently.
Hopefully that means a couple of more voters for the Bern.


The comments section is very interesting. Plenty right leaning, even Trump voters saying they'd vote for him. Brilliant move on his part to go on the show. And Rogan is a fantastic interviewer. Really puts the MSM talking heads to shame.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:50 am 
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Right now his stock is as high as it has been since the Michigan win in 2016. Needs to keep hammering on prescription costs to flip older Obama-Trump voters that were leaning Biden. The youth vote is in the bag already, no one else comes close.

Quote:
Pennsylvania:
Sanders 50% (+7)
Trump 43%

Florida:
Sanders 48% (+6)
Trump 42%

North Carolina:
Sanders 47% (+4)
Trump 43%

Texas:
Sanders 51% (+2)
Trump 49%

Bernie's favorability among independent voters: 56%


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:53 am 
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flaggETERNAL wrote:
Bokkom wrote:
Bernie's talk with JR has over 5 million viewers now and still trending at no 1 on YouTube, apparently.
Hopefully that means a couple of more voters for the Bern.


The comments section is very interesting. Plenty right leaning, even Trump voters saying they'd vote for him. Brilliant move on his part to go on the show. And Rogan is a fantastic interviewer. Really puts the MSM talking heads to shame.


Rogan lets his guests speak rather than forcing in predetermined talking points.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:59 am 
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Bowens wrote:
Right now his stock is as high as it has been since the Michigan win in 2016. Needs to keep hammering on prescription costs to flip older Obama-Trump voters that were leaning Biden. The youth vote is in the bag already, no one else comes close.

Quote:
Pennsylvania:
Sanders 50% (+7)
Trump 43%

Florida:
Sanders 48% (+6)
Trump 42%

North Carolina:
Sanders 47% (+4)
Trump 43%

Texas:
Sanders 51% (+2)
Trump 49%

Bernie's favorability among independent voters: 56%


Have his numbers among black Americans improved in any way?


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:01 am 
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Who replaces Joe when the wheels fall off his campaign?

He has plenty of support right now but it’s pretty soft, like everyone else’s, bar maybe Bernie.
I think as choosing time approaches and people start giving the race serious consideration there’s no way Biden holds onto that lead.

Name recognition is all well and good but there’s no way that’s enough to let him bumble his way to the nomination. “I’m Barack’s buddy” is a shitty platform to begin with without the avalanche of gaffes he has yet to unleash.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:02 am 
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I’d have to look into it, but he does well with young minority voters. It’s a generational thing there. Across the board voters 55+ are his weakest demographic which is why he needs to focus on things like drug prices.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:04 am 
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I watched that and didn't think he did that great. Pretty casual interview which makes a nice change and a nice enough guy.

When asked about guns though - No plan, just a rehash of waffle. Wishy-washy waffle. "It's a big problem" "Oh the mental health of the country" "Oh woe is us". It was great that he was honest enough to say he doesn't know, but to be asked and be all "Um ahh, Um ahh" and rattle off some waffle on the fly just to say a bunch of words in reply, shows it's not really been given a whole lot of thought.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:05 am 
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Ewinkum wrote:
Who replaces Joe when the wheels fall off his campaign?


Beginning to wonder that too.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:09 am 
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sonic_attack wrote:
I watched that and didn't think he did that great. Pretty casual interview which makes a nice change and a nice enough guy.

When asked about guns though - No plan, just a rehash of waffle. Wishy-washy waffle. "It's a big problem" "Oh the mental health of the country" "Oh woe is us". It was great that he was honest enough to say he doesn't know, but to be asked and be all "Um ahh, Um ahh" and rattle off some waffle on the fly just to say a bunch of words in reply, shows it's not really been given a whole lot of thought.



I thought he was honest enough to say some of those problems are horrendously complex and will take time to fix. On others, like healthcare, student debt, education and climate change he was pretty clear imo.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:12 am 
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flaggETERNAL wrote:
Bowens wrote:
Right now his stock is as high as it has been since the Michigan win in 2016. Needs to keep hammering on prescription costs to flip older Obama-Trump voters that were leaning Biden. The youth vote is in the bag already, no one else comes close.

Quote:
Pennsylvania:
Sanders 50% (+7)
Trump 43%

Florida:
Sanders 48% (+6)
Trump 42%

North Carolina:
Sanders 47% (+4)
Trump 43%

Texas:
Sanders 51% (+2)
Trump 49%

Bernie's favorability among independent voters: 56%


Have his numbers among black Americans improved in any way?


Not too shabby.

Quote:
“Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, with 16 percent for Sanders, 8 percent for Warren, [2 percent for former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) and 1 percent for Harris,” a new Quinnipiac Poll released Tuesday revealed.


https://onenewsnow.com/politics-govt/20 ... black-vote


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:16 am 
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Poor kids are just as bright just as talented as white kids.

Did Joe Biden really just say that?
:lol:


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:54 am 
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sonic_attack wrote:
I watched that and didn't think he did that great. Pretty casual interview which makes a nice change and a nice enough guy.

When asked about guns though - No plan, just a rehash of waffle. Wishy-washy waffle. "It's a big problem" "Oh the mental health of the country" "Oh woe is us". It was great that he was honest enough to say he doesn't know, but to be asked and be all "Um ahh, Um ahh" and rattle off some waffle on the fly just to say a bunch of words in reply, shows it's not really been given a whole lot of thought.

But aren't those the really tough questions after all?
Who else in the USA today can give quick answers to those?
It is obvious Bernie sees those issues as the symptoms of a broken society, mainly because of financial hardships and general despair.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:12 pm 
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flaggETERNAL wrote:
Poor kids are just as bright just as talented as white kids.

Did Joe Biden really just say that?
:lol:


This is only a few days after the comments on shootings in “Houston” and “Michigan.” The Bidens seem like nice people and Joe definitely reminds me of someone from my neighborhood, but I really don’t think it’s happening at this point.

Another poll out today has Bernie beating Trump in NC btw. And Bernie is actually beating Biden there with under-50s (26% to 25%). But he’s losing older voters by a wide margin, especially age 65+. The Sanders campaign needs to roll out a nationwide plan to message to people in his own age group. What’s the equivalent to going on Rogan but for old people? A guest spot on NCIS?

This is a good poll in terms of demographic breakdowns, it gets very specific:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRep ... a662509d55


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:31 pm 
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Ewinkum wrote:
flaggETERNAL wrote:
Bowens wrote:
Right now his stock is as high as it has been since the Michigan win in 2016. Needs to keep hammering on prescription costs to flip older Obama-Trump voters that were leaning Biden. The youth vote is in the bag already, no one else comes close.

Quote:
Pennsylvania:
Sanders 50% (+7)
Trump 43%

Florida:
Sanders 48% (+6)
Trump 42%

North Carolina:
Sanders 47% (+4)
Trump 43%

Texas:
Sanders 51% (+2)
Trump 49%

Bernie's favorability among independent voters: 56%


Have his numbers among black Americans improved in any way?


Not too shabby.

Quote:
“Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, with 16 percent for Sanders, 8 percent for Warren, [2 percent for former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) and 1 percent for Harris,” a new Quinnipiac Poll released Tuesday revealed.


https://onenewsnow.com/politics-govt/20 ... black-vote


That's actually pretty fcking funny. The black voters are going for the racist old senile white guy.

If anything is going to cost the Dems the election it might be rely really low black voter turnout maybe. Or could Kanye swing it for Big Orange.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:45 pm 
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Kanye has to have one of the whitest fanbases of any rapper. Always been that way.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:07 pm 
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Bowens wrote:
Kanye has to have one of the whitest fanbases of any rapper. Always been that way.


MIB is a Kanye wigger.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:11 pm 
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I like him too.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:08 pm 
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Seneca of the Night wrote:
Bowens wrote:
Kanye has to have one of the whitest fanbases of any rapper. Always been that way.


MIB is a Kanye wigger.


You know it. 8)


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:42 pm 
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Good old Joe.

https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/ ... 09446?s=19


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:22 pm 
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Seneca of the Night wrote:


Some of those folks are articulate and bright and clean and nice-looking guys.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:55 pm 
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Seneca of the Night wrote:


Just like Trump to some extent I dont think Biden is "racist" but being an ancient old white man, he must have some interesting perceptions about non-white folk. My question is, why is the Bern different?


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:11 pm 
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Ewinkum wrote:
Who replaces Joe when the wheels fall off his campaign?

He has plenty of support right now but it’s pretty soft, like everyone else’s, bar maybe Bernie.
I think as choosing time approaches and people start giving the race serious consideration there’s no way Biden holds onto that lead.

Name recognition is all well and good but there’s no way that’s enough to let him bumble his way to the nomination. “I’m Barack’s buddy” is a shitty platform to begin with without the avalanche of gaffes he has yet to unleash.

Counterpoint:
Is it soft though? He’s been fairly reliably at the top of the poll and even the bump Harris got off the first debate seems to have drifted back to him. Most voters aren’t as extremely online as we are so this is t nearly as dramatic for them as it is for us (the JRE thing with Bernie won’t register at all). Much as it grates on you I think the “I fren Obama” is actually a pretty solid platform and if Clinton could’ve convinced people of it she might’ve got elected.

As an aside, I think we’re watching Trump in cognitive decline and I think we’re going to see the same in Biden but not sure it’ll show up as readily in the election as it does for Trump who’s a constant media presence. I think there should probably be a limit to what age you can run for president at it tbh.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:14 pm 
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paddyor wrote:
Ewinkum wrote:
Who replaces Joe when the wheels fall off his campaign?

He has plenty of support right now but it’s pretty soft, like everyone else’s, bar maybe Bernie.
I think as choosing time approaches and people start giving the race serious consideration there’s no way Biden holds onto that lead.

Name recognition is all well and good but there’s no way that’s enough to let him bumble his way to the nomination. “I’m Barack’s buddy” is a shitty platform to begin with without the avalanche of gaffes he has yet to unleash.

Counterpoint:
Is it soft though? He’s been fairly reliably at the top of the poll and even the bump Harris got off the first debate seems to have drifted back to him. Most voters aren’t as extremely online as we are so this is t nearly as dramatic for them as it is for us (the JRE thing with Bernie won’t register at all). Much as it grates on you I think the “I fren Obama” is actually a pretty solid platform and if Clinton could’ve convinced people of it she might’ve got elected.

As an aside, I think we’re watching Trump in cognitive decline and I think we’re going to see the same in Biden but not sure it’ll show up as readily in the election as it does for Trump who’s a constant media presence. I think there should probably be a limit to what age you can run for president at it tbh.


His debate performance didn't do much to evaporate his lead, we'll see if his latest gaffe does.

I tend to agree with Nate Silver's take on it, whether he gets the nomination will come down to one thing - whether Dems think he can beat Trump.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:53 pm 
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paddyor wrote:
Ewinkum wrote:
Who replaces Joe when the wheels fall off his campaign?

He has plenty of support right now but it’s pretty soft, like everyone else’s, bar maybe Bernie.
I think as choosing time approaches and people start giving the race serious consideration there’s no way Biden holds onto that lead.

Name recognition is all well and good but there’s no way that’s enough to let him bumble his way to the nomination. “I’m Barack’s buddy” is a shitty platform to begin with without the avalanche of gaffes he has yet to unleash.

Counterpoint:
Is it soft though? He’s been fairly reliably at the top of the poll and even the bump Harris got off the first debate seems to have drifted back to him. Most voters aren’t as extremely online as we are so this is t nearly as dramatic for them as it is for us (the JRE thing with Bernie won’t register at all). Much as it grates on you I think the “I fren Obama” is actually a pretty solid platform and if Clinton could’ve convinced people of it she might’ve got elected.

As an aside, I think we’re watching Trump in cognitive decline and I think we’re going to see the same in Biden but not sure it’ll show up as readily in the election as it does for Trump who’s a constant media presence. I think there should probably be a limit to what age you can run for president at it tbh.


I think most of the support out there is pretty soft. Look at the bounce Kamala got for her attack on Biden, and how quickly it evaporated once she was attacked herself. I think the soft support migrates back to Joe because people simple haven’t decided who they really want.
The guy is unbackable ffs. Sleepwalking through the primary.

I completely agree that we here are paying more attention to to this than the vast majority of Americans.

Let’s say 75% of them (source: the higher reaches of my hole) have little or no interest at this stage and are basically answering pollsters with whatever name is trending at the moment.

That will change, and though a sizeable chunk of voters will always go for whoever the media are pushing them to vote for, the dissenting voices will also grow louder as the field thins out and the campaigns ramp up. People will eventually have to think about their choice.

Liz is running flat out right now but the Bern is only thinking about slotting her into 3rd gear.
Joe is freewheeling like a junkie in a shopping cart.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:55 pm 
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flaggETERNAL wrote:
Seneca of the Night wrote:


Just like Trump to some extent I dont think Biden is "racist" but being an ancient old white man, he must have some interesting perceptions about non-white folk. My question is, why is the Bern different?

He always was a rebel against the system. Isn't there a photo of him getting arrested at a civil rights protest in the 60s?


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:39 am 
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Bowens wrote:
Ewinkum wrote:
Who replaces Joe when the wheels fall off his campaign?


Beginning to wonder that too.


Talk Michelle Obama has a lot of $$ behind her.


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