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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:01 am 
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Anyone care to give some insight into this?

Should people be worried or is it just the market having an attention seeking moment.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:16 am 
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The best explanation I've seen is that Trump's giveaway has caused the US bond market to get jittery - which in turn has fed into the US equities markets.

Probably not a precursor to a crash as US fundamentals are sound, but at the same time I wouldn't expect much stability until the longer term impact becomes clear


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:29 am 
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There is one possibility that it was basically algorithms at work. Equity buy and sell programs that sensed this was a good time to take profits and get out of the market.

So basically a whole lot of trading robots happened to decide that this was a good time to get out of the market. And honestly that makes sense, because if you’re an investor, or even just have been paying attention to the the stock market over the past year, you’ve probably asked yourself in casual conversation, "Gee, how long can this go on? When should I get out?" Well, all the robots may have decided that the answer to that question was just after 3 p.m. Eastern today.



https://www.marketplace.org/2018/02/05/ ... -dow-today

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“People are finally starting to reprice reflation, it’s about time,” Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton, head of global cross-asset research at Lyxor Asset Management, said by phone. “Global economic growth is strong and corporate earnings are very solid, so there’s no reason to question the equity bull market. The rise in bond yields is good, it’s just the speed at which it’s happening that is making investors nervous. Bottom line: this is a healthy correction.

http://time.com/money/5131621/dow-jones ... l-reserve/

The last is what I've heard too - a correction, revaluation.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:31 am 
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Saint wrote:
The best explanation I've seen is that Trump's giveaway has caused the US bond market to get jittery - which in turn has fed into the US equities markets.

Probably not a precursor to a crash as US fundamentals are sound, but at the same time I wouldn't expect much stability until the longer term impact becomes clear



It's back January levels. Shocking.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:48 am 
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Image

:lol: :lol: :lol:


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:49 am 
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Insane_Homer wrote:
Image

:lol: :lol: :lol:
yes, remarkable how many people believed that was genuine. Fascinating insight into social media.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:50 am 
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Insane_Homer wrote:
Image

:lol: :lol: :lol:


:lol:


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:52 am 
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Mr Mike wrote:
Insane_Homer wrote:
Image

:lol: :lol: :lol:
yes, remarkable how many people believed that was genuine. Fascinating insight into social media.


I feel moronic for responding now


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:52 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Saint wrote:
The best explanation I've seen is that Trump's giveaway has caused the US bond market to get jittery - which in turn has fed into the US equities markets.

Probably not a precursor to a crash as US fundamentals are sound, but at the same time I wouldn't expect much stability until the longer term impact becomes clear



It's back January levels. Shocking.


this

just waiting for some steam to come off, then I might buy some more.
BP, BT, GSK, LGEN all on my radar for top-ups


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:08 pm 
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There's no single cause or trigger, bond yields have been creeping up for the past six months and quite a few fund managers had 2.70-2.80 as a trigger to sell (the US 10yr crossed 2.80 last week)

But the crucial thing to note is that the cause for bond yields going higher isn't something nefarious like rising default rates or credit inadequacy, but rather the return of inflation which is something central bankers have been searching for in the past decade - this is just a market correction as the likelihood of a return to normality in terms of rising interest rates (to kill off inflation) and thus higher bond yields is being priced in


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:10 pm 
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Mick Mannock wrote:
Mr Mike wrote:
Insane_Homer wrote:
Image

:lol: :lol: :lol:
yes, remarkable how many people believed that was genuine. Fascinating insight into social media.


I feel moronic for responding now


Imagine how I feel :uhoh:


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:13 pm 
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Insane_Homer wrote:
Mick Mannock wrote:
Mr Mike wrote:
Insane_Homer wrote:
Image

:lol: :lol: :lol:
yes, remarkable how many people believed that was genuine. Fascinating insight into social media.


I feel moronic for responding now


Imagine how I feel :uhoh:

I assumed you knew. It went up yesterday and my teens were rolling their eyes at their mum by dinner time for thinking it was real.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:46 pm 
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Mr Mike wrote:
I assumed you knew. It went up yesterday and my teens were rolling their eyes at their mum by dinner time for thinking it was real.


just sloppy on my part, saw it on my twitter feed from a usually reliable source & I've seen so many similar foot in mouth moments by him that it's didn't occur to me that this one might be false.
In retrospect, the 'Dow Joans' was a decent enough clue. Not even the Orangeotang is that dumb x(


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:59 pm 
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This is why I've deleted all my social media accounts, apart from the fact it is full of humanity's worse cretins. I found myself having to check every post like that, that caught my eye and the vast majority were false.

It's scary to think where we are heading as a society when anyone can post anything made up and millions of people take it as the truth, I don't want any part in it.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:00 pm 
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Insane_Homer wrote:
Mr Mike wrote:
I assumed you knew. It went up yesterday and my teens were rolling their eyes at their mum by dinner time for thinking it was real.


just sloppy on my part, saw it on my twitter feed from a usually reliable source & I've seen so many similar foot in mouth moments by him that it's didn't occur to me that this one might be false.
In retrospect, the 'Dow Joans' was a decent enough clue. Not even the Orangeotang is that dumb x(

Kiwias put it on two threads last night and I told him it was fake.

The guy who created it is a bit shocked people thought it was real, which says something I suppose.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:01 pm 
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slick wrote:
This is why I've deleted all my social media accounts, apart from the fact it is full of humanity's worse cretins. I found myself having to check every post like that, that caught my eye and the vast majority were false.

It's scary to think where we are heading as a society when anyone can post anything made up and millions of people take it as the truth, I don't want any part in it.

Then stop answering globus. 😉


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:13 pm 
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happyhooker wrote:
Insane_Homer wrote:
Mr Mike wrote:
I assumed you knew. It went up yesterday and my teens were rolling their eyes at their mum by dinner time for thinking it was real.


just sloppy on my part, saw it on my twitter feed from a usually reliable source & I've seen so many similar foot in mouth moments by him that it's didn't occur to me that this one might be false.
In retrospect, the 'Dow Joans' was a decent enough clue. Not even the Orangeotang is that dumb x(

Kiwias put it on two threads last night and I told him it was fake.

The guy who created it is a bit shocked people thought it was real, which says something I suppose.


As with IH, I saw this on my FB from a source usually impeccable. We have both deleted the links and photos, having learnt yet again the importance of double-checking.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:38 pm 
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Kiwias wrote:
happyhooker wrote:
Insane_Homer wrote:
Mr Mike wrote:
I assumed you knew. It went up yesterday and my teens were rolling their eyes at their mum by dinner time for thinking it was real.


just sloppy on my part, saw it on my twitter feed from a usually reliable source & I've seen so many similar foot in mouth moments by him that it's didn't occur to me that this one might be false.
In retrospect, the 'Dow Joans' was a decent enough clue. Not even the Orangeotang is that dumb x(

Kiwias put it on two threads last night and I told him it was fake.

The guy who created it is a bit shocked people thought it was real, which says something I suppose.


As with IH, I saw this on my FB from a source usually impeccable. We have both deleted the links and photos, having learnt yet again the importance of double-checking.

Tbh, I was on the verge of retweeting it, then saw 'dow joans'


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:54 pm 
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Quote:
At the exact moment when President Donald Trump was bragging about the economic boon from his tax reforms, the stock market experienced an historic crash — and according to one former White House economic adviser, that wasn’t coincidental.
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“The stock market just noticed that an unstable lunatic is president of the United States,” Bruce Bartlett, a Treasury Department official under President George H.W. Bush and an economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan tweeted.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:30 pm 
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Fears of sharper rise in interest rates if inflation rate is accelerating?


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:45 pm 
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Kiwias wrote:
Quote:
At the exact moment when President Donald Trump was bragging about the economic boon from his tax reforms, the stock market experienced an historic crash — and according to one former White House economic adviser, that wasn’t coincidental.
Report Advertisement

“The stock market just noticed that an unstable lunatic is president of the United States,” Bruce Bartlett, a Treasury Department official under President George H.W. Bush and an economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan tweeted.



I've just checked bartletts Twitter feed, he's quite shrill.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:53 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Kiwias wrote:
Quote:
At the exact moment when President Donald Trump was bragging about the economic boon from his tax reforms, the stock market experienced an historic crash — and according to one former White House economic adviser, that wasn’t coincidental.
Report Advertisement

“The stock market just noticed that an unstable lunatic is president of the United States,” Bruce Bartlett, a Treasury Department official under President George H.W. Bush and an economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan tweeted.



I've just checked bartletts Twitter feed, he's quite shrill.
Back up today, as the nation just noticed we have a very stable genius as president.

Or people are seeing a buying opportunity after an overdue correction.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:02 pm 
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An interesting aside to the last 2 or 3 days of stock market gyrations is that there has been a sharp increase in 'volatility'. Unfortunately there are financial instruments that allow punters to bet against volatility. Some that did so have lost a packet!


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:33 pm 
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backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Saint wrote:
The best explanation I've seen is that Trump's giveaway has caused the US bond market to get jittery - which in turn has fed into the US equities markets.

Probably not a precursor to a crash as US fundamentals are sound, but at the same time I wouldn't expect much stability until the longer term impact becomes clear



It's back January levels. Shocking.


this

just waiting for some steam to come off, then I might buy some more.
BP, BT, GSK, LGEN all on my radar for top-ups


If you are brave go long on air freighters. US companies are soon to have a lot of repatriated cash and high end IT and technology equipment will be top of their lists and which will go by air, not sea. There is already a shortage on these airframes and that will increase.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:06 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Kiwias wrote:
Quote:
At the exact moment when President Donald Trump was bragging about the economic boon from his tax reforms, the stock market experienced an historic crash — and according to one former White House economic adviser, that wasn’t coincidental.
Report Advertisement

“The stock market just noticed that an unstable lunatic is president of the United States,” Bruce Bartlett, a Treasury Department official under President George H.W. Bush and an economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan tweeted.



I've just checked bartletts Twitter feed, he's quite shrill.


Well, he doesn't like Trump, so that is one good point about him


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:48 am 
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openclashXX wrote:
There's no single cause or trigger, bond yields have been creeping up for the past six months and quite a few fund managers had 2.70-2.80 as a trigger to sell (the US 10yr crossed 2.80 last week)

But the crucial thing to note is that the cause for bond yields going higher isn't something nefarious like rising default rates or credit inadequacy, but rather the return of inflation which is something central bankers have been searching for in the past decade - this is just a market correction as the likelihood of a return to normality in terms of rising interest rates (to kill off inflation) and thus higher bond yields is being priced in


Massive overvaluations across almost every asset class, extremely high VIX, machines amplifying human decisions to sell.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:22 pm 
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Shorted the VIX at 52 yesterday after riding it up from 26 a while ago
Closed my short on the S&P way too early but let's not get into that


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:13 pm 
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zt1903 wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
There's no single cause or trigger, bond yields have been creeping up for the past six months and quite a few fund managers had 2.70-2.80 as a trigger to sell (the US 10yr crossed 2.80 last week)

But the crucial thing to note is that the cause for bond yields going higher isn't something nefarious like rising default rates or credit inadequacy, but rather the return of inflation which is something central bankers have been searching for in the past decade - this is just a market correction as the likelihood of a return to normality in terms of rising interest rates (to kill off inflation) and thus higher bond yields is being priced in


Massive overvaluations across almost every asset class, extremely high VIX, machines amplifying human decisions to sell.



If there's real inflation coming in the system then some assets are undervalued.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:14 pm 
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Cartman wrote:
Shorted the VIX at 52 yesterday after riding it up from 26 a while ago
Closed my short on the S&P way too early but let's not get into that


Cracking short on the ViX. It's massively over priced and been bought as a panic by traders short Gamma.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:53 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Cartman wrote:
Shorted the VIX at 52 yesterday after riding it up from 26 a while ago
Closed my short on the S&P way too early but let's not get into that


Cracking short on the ViX. It's massively over priced and been bought as a panic by traders short Gamma.


Ta. I see it's 55 now. Really did not see yesterday's sell off coming. Missed out :?


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:19 pm 
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Tanking again and on the way to the worst week since 2008.

My missus made her first ever investment buying some index funds 2 weeks. I want to laugh but she thinks she is cursed and doesn't want to know about it. You can all blame her for this.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:23 pm 
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Cartman wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Cartman wrote:
Shorted the VIX at 52 yesterday after riding it up from 26 a while ago
Closed my short on the S&P way too early but let's not get into that


Cracking short on the ViX. It's massively over priced and been bought as a panic by traders short Gamma.


Ta. I see it's 55 now. Really did not see yesterday's sell off coming. Missed out :?



It's implying 6% daily vol on US equity .. Mental


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:24 pm 
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Rumham wrote:
Tanking again and on the way to the worst week since 2008.

My missus made her first ever investment buying some index funds 2 weeks. I want to laugh but she thinks she is cursed and doesn't want to know about it. You can all blame her for this.


please tell me she didn't invest a lump sum into an index tracker ?! :shock:

they are for your £100 a month tuck it away type investment strategies, and from a very good part of your portfolio as they are cheap and over long term do better than 80% of active fund managers IF YOU INVEST REGULARLY !


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:43 pm 
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backrow wrote:
Rumham wrote:
Tanking again and on the way to the worst week since 2008.

My missus made her first ever investment buying some index funds 2 weeks. I want to laugh but she thinks she is cursed and doesn't want to know about it. You can all blame her for this.


please tell me she didn't invest a lump sum into an index tracker ?! :shock:

they are for your £100 a month tuck it away type investment strategies, and from a very good part of your portfolio as they are cheap and over long term do better than 80% of active fund managers IF YOU INVEST REGULARLY !


I disagree. She will never be an active investor so I don't have an issue with putting a lump sum in to get started as part of her portfolio. My gripe was the timing. I've banging on at her to do this for the last 12 months but she is allergic to it. If this was done even in November it would have been fine.

Anyway, in a perverse way I want to say I told you so but she's lost a few quid so I'll pass. And she will be long term investor looking at 20 years down the line so this hiccup will pass.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:50 pm 
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Rumham wrote:
backrow wrote:
Rumham wrote:
Tanking again and on the way to the worst week since 2008.

My missus made her first ever investment buying some index funds 2 weeks. I want to laugh but she thinks she is cursed and doesn't want to know about it. You can all blame her for this.


please tell me she didn't invest a lump sum into an index tracker ?! :shock:

they are for your £100 a month tuck it away type investment strategies, and from a very good part of your portfolio as they are cheap and over long term do better than 80% of active fund managers IF YOU INVEST REGULARLY !


I disagree. She will never be an active investor so I don't have an issue with putting a lump sum in to get started as part of her portfolio. My gripe was the timing. I've banging on at her to do this for the last 12 months but she is allergic to it. If this was done even in November it would have been fine.

Anyway, in a perverse way I want to say I told you so but she's lost a few quid so I'll pass. And she will be long term investor looking at 20 years down the line so this hiccup will pass.



well there are good and bad points there - the good is that she's decided to invest, and is looking at a long time frame which is the right way to go about it.
the bad - everything else really. First up, she won't be an active investor as such even if she chooses another managed fund, as it will be the portfolio managers making the decisions.
And for somebody just starting out in the business of investing in shares, a regular contribution is nearly always better mid to long term than a lump sum start, for precisely the reasons she has just found out. What happens in the future is impossible to truly know - she needs to be brave now and top the investment up now they are 10% lower or whatever.

in a way, if its you who was banging on about it for 12 months, then its your fault she invested when she did, and how she did.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:10 pm 
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Disagree entirely. She has her own financial manager and the ETFs chosen were his suggestion with the long term in mind. I'm not pressing any buttons and only saw what they had done after the market slumped.

Again, her tardiness is her fault. If she made the decision to do it 12 months ago then this would just be interesting viewing. When I say lump sum btw it does not mean she has emptied her bank account. This was a toe in the water deal and she has been burned just enough to make it amusing but hardly a devastating financial blow. Best thing now is to get back in when the dust settles. It'll all be water in the bridge down the road but I will still have a chuckle at her first venture into investing.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:17 pm 
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Rumham wrote:
Disagree entirely. She has her own financial manager and the ETFs chosen were his suggestion with the long term in mind. I'm not pressing any buttons and only saw what they had done after the market slumped.

Again, her tardiness is her fault. If she made the decision to do it 12 months ago then this would just be interesting viewing. When I say lump sum btw it does not mean she has emptied her bank account. This was a toe in the water deal and she has been burned just enough to make it amusing but hardly a devastating financial blow. Best thing now is to get back in when the dust settles. It'll all be water in the bridge down the road but I will still have a chuckle at her first venture into investing.


ah my last line was a bit tongue in cheek :D

in any case, I lost 2k on carillion so wtfdik :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:29 pm 
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backrow wrote:
Rumham wrote:
backrow wrote:
Rumham wrote:
Tanking again and on the way to the worst week since 2008.

My missus made her first ever investment buying some index funds 2 weeks. I want to laugh but she thinks she is cursed and doesn't want to know about it. You can all blame her for this.


please tell me she didn't invest a lump sum into an index tracker ?! :shock:

they are for your £100 a month tuck it away type investment strategies, and from a very good part of your portfolio as they are cheap and over long term do better than 80% of active fund managers IF YOU INVEST REGULARLY !


I disagree. She will never be an active investor so I don't have an issue with putting a lump sum in to get started as part of her portfolio. My gripe was the timing. I've banging on at her to do this for the last 12 months but she is allergic to it. If this was done even in November it would have been fine.

Anyway, in a perverse way I want to say I told you so but she's lost a few quid so I'll pass. And she will be long term investor looking at 20 years down the line so this hiccup will pass.



well there are good and bad points there - the good is that she's decided to invest, and is looking at a long time frame which is the right way to go about it.
the bad - everything else really. First up, she won't be an active investor as such even if she chooses another managed fund, as it will be the portfolio managers making the decisions.
And for somebody just starting out in the business of investing in shares, a regular contribution is nearly always better mid to long term than a lump sum start, for precisely the reasons she has just found out. What happens in the future is impossible to truly know - she needs to be brave now and top the investment up now they are 10% lower or whatever.

in a way, if its you who was banging on about it for 12 months, then its your fault she invested when she did, and how she did.


The bold is complete and utter nonsense. I'd love to see any study showing that to be the case.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:00 pm 
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Eh ? Just google and you will see a one off lump sum in an index tracker will be beaten by a regular saver in the same fund - the lump sum will only win if another lump sum is made after a market fall.
Of course if you had a crystal ball, the lump sum would win if you bought just before a rise. If an index is volatile, the lump sum will be more likely to hit a drop just after investment (as happened here) - if it’s less volatile then it should do better as will be invested for longer.

For a starter investor, a regular saving is a lower risk strategy as this example proves . I just hope she stays invested and rides it out, and doesn’t get phased and sell at a loss.
I do regular saving as well as lump sums to try and mix the risk profile up.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:26 pm 
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backrow wrote:
Eh ? Just google and you will see a one off lump sum in an index tracker will be beaten by a regular saver in the same fund - the lump sum will only win if another lump sum is made after a market fall.
Of course if you had a crystal ball, the lump sum would win if you bought just before a rise.

For a starter investor, a regular saving is a lower risk strategy as this example proves . I just hope she stays invested and rides it out, and doesn’t get phased and sell at a loss.


Hit me with a link then. It doesn't make any sense since you're screwing yourself out of expected returns by not investing the lump sum in the beginning. Let's use an example. Let's say you have $12,000 to invest and the expected return of the fund is 10% annually. That's equivalent to 0.7974% monthly return. If I invest the $12,000 as a lump sum at the beginning of the year, my expected return is $1200 and my expected portfolio is $13,200. However, let's say instead I opt to invest $1000 each month instead. My expected return at the end of the year in that case is only $640.54 and my expected portfolio is $12,640.54.


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