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South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:19 am
by Salient
http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/ ... 3576c4c0bc

Yeah that's not going to involve a whole bunch of corruption and the Saffa economy imploding.

Oh we're full by the way, unless you play rugby to a high International standard and don't mind living in Brisbane :nod:

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:26 am
by jambanja
This won’t end well, for anyone

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:04 am
by Tehui
It's like Lord of the Flies.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:21 am
by Sards
It's what the ANC does. Steal. There is no money left to steal and now they want to steal land. I really feel for the farmers that have put their lives into this. Of course it is not just land that will be taken.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:23 am
by Tehui
Sards wrote:It's what the ANC does. Steal. There is no money left to steal and now they want to steal land. I really feel for the farmers that have put their lives into this. Of course it is not just land that will be taken.
Excuse my dumb questions, but how are human rights principles protected in your local constitution? And can SA expect to receive condemnation from the international community?

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:29 am
by Sards
Tehui wrote:
Sards wrote:It's what the ANC does. Steal. There is no money left to steal and now they want to steal land. I really feel for the farmers that have put their lives into this. Of course it is not just land that will be taken.
Excuse my dumb questions, but how are human rights principles protected in your local constitution? And can SA expect to receive condemnation from the international community?
There is protection but it means absolutely nothing . There will be no sanction from international players . Never has been. Our economy is a disaster. It's going to get even worse. There will be a lot more people owning land and very little income to do anything. I will downscale my business. I will have to. Where will I find investors wanting to put money into new ventures.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:44 am
by Enzedder
No water; soon no food?. :?

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:50 am
by Sards
The ANC is a revolutionary party. It came into power with Nelson Mandela and we had hope as a Rainbow nation. Then Zuma came along and the country was plundered. All state collected funds did not go to the intended people to uplift or improve their lives but went into individual pockets. Our state owned enterprises are a mess. Most of them are bankrupt because of looting. Now the ANC cannot deliver any promises to improve the lives of people because there is no money. They failed as a democratic government and are resorting to their revolutionary roots to win back the confidence of the people. Banks will feel it . Business will feel it. It's going to be a mess. But you almost feel that we need to resolve the land issue. It's the only way to move forward. But there is going to be a lot of pain in the future and it's going to set our democracy back decades

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:50 am
by UncleFB
Hmm, was Zuma keeping the wolves at the gates?

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:53 am
by Sards
UncleFB wrote:Hmm, was Zuma keeping the wolves at the gates?
He was looting the public purse. He wasn't interested in the people. It's because of this that we are in this mess.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:55 am
by UncleFB
Sards wrote:
UncleFB wrote:Hmm, was Zuma keeping the wolves at the gates?
He was looting the public purse. He wasn't interested in the people. It's because of this that we are in this mess.
Of course, but was he doing both?

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:02 am
by Sards
UncleFB wrote:
Sards wrote:
UncleFB wrote:Hmm, was Zuma keeping the wolves at the gates?
He was looting the public purse. He wasn't interested in the people. It's because of this that we are in this mess.
Of course, but was he doing both?
I doubt it. As I said. The looting was so bad that there is no money left . They are raiding pension funds to float State owned enterprises.

Oh well. I am going away for a holiday break this weekend and when we get back we will reconsider our future. I don't want to spoil this weekend by worrying about the future of our country.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:15 am
by houtkabouter
Something something chicken runners...

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:41 am
by Cartman
I'm sure it will be done a bit more intelligently than in Zim. If you are white and have money wtf would you want to be a farmer here anyway

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:14 am
by assfly
South Africa is nothing like Zimbabwe, regardless of this motion.

If this does ever happen it'll take years. And it won't involve kicking white farmers off productive agricultural land.

But I'm sure the media are going to have field day with it, as we can already see.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:26 am
by jambanja
Cartman wrote:I'm sure it will be done a bit more intelligently than in Zim. If you are white and have money wtf would you want to be a farmer here anyway
Have they done anything else a bit more intelligently the Zim thus far, what makes you think this will be any different
What do you think an announcement like this does to investor confidence in general

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:02 am
by Chilli
assfly wrote:South Africa is nothing like Zimbabwe, regardless of this motion.

If this does ever happen it'll take years. And it won't involve kicking white farmers off productive agricultural land.

But I'm sure the media are going to have field day with it, as we can already see.
From what I heard on SAFM yesterday [ there are only shit radio stations in KZN like East Coast Radio] expropriation without compensation has always been possible.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:11 am
by Sards
* EDIT *

I am not wasting any energy or thoughtt on this this week

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:23 am
by assfly
Chilli wrote:From what I heard on SAFM yesterday [ there are only shit radio stations in KZN like East Coast Radio] expropriation without compensation has always been possible.
Yes, it's always been on the cards. Especially with guys like the EFF making it central to their populist policies. But the ANC have already said they will most likely disagree on how it is done.

CR is a rational-thinking business man. There is no way he would allow a Mugabe style farm invasion of major commercial farms.

This reeks of a deal. I think it's the ANC targeting the DA controlled cities like Joburg and PE where they have weak coalitions with the EFF.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:50 am
by Wilson's Toffee
UncleFB wrote:
Sards wrote:
UncleFB wrote:Hmm, was Zuma keeping the wolves at the gates?
He was looting the public purse. He wasn't interested in the people. It's because of this that we are in this mess.
Of course, but was he doing both?

Some parts of big business tolerated him because he kept the populists at bay (sort of) Then they found out the price ...
Now we will have to pay the price, regardless.


Basically it comes down to confiscating the operating capital of the most influential and capable South Africans, and demopting them to share croppers. Agriculture in South Africa is a hard thing , needs clued up people. Also huge investors in land for development will lose all. Or most. every town and city has those as well.

A remake of the basic economy is on the cards. And many many tears.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:51 am
by Wilson's Toffee
assfly wrote:
Chilli wrote:From what I heard on SAFM yesterday [ there are only shit radio stations in KZN like East Coast Radio] expropriation without compensation has always been possible.
Yes, it's always been on the cards. Especially with guys like the EFF making it central to their populist policies. But the ANC have already said they will most likely disagree on how it is done.

CR is a rational-thinking business man. There is no way he would allow a Mugabe style farm invasion of major commercial farms.

This reeks of a deal. I think it's the ANC targeting the DA controlled cities like Joburg and PE where they have weak coalitions with the EFF.

They may target votes. They will reap the whirlwind. Very very irresponsible - CR will not be able to curb the more fanatic populists.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:52 am
by beachboy
assfly wrote:
Chilli wrote:From what I heard on SAFM yesterday [ there are only shit radio stations in KZN like East Coast Radio] expropriation without compensation has always been possible.
Yes, it's always been on the cards. Especially with guys like the EFF making it central to their populist policies. But the ANC have already said they will most likely disagree on how it is done.

CR is a rational-thinking business man. There is no way he would allow a Mugabe style farm invasion of major commercial farms.

This reeks of a deal. I think it's the ANC targeting the DA controlled cities like Joburg and PE where they have weak coalitions with the EFF.
Exactly my opinion. I watched a Q&A with Malema and he felt the same. The ANC is trying to appease a portion of their supporters (mainly Zuma supporters) and woo some from the EFF with this legislation. It wont change much. The Government owns so much land and they should be the starting point.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:59 am
by assfly
beachboy wrote:Exactly my opinion. I watched a Q&A with Malema and he felt the same. The ANC is trying to appease a portion of their supporters (mainly Zuma supporters) and woo some from the EFF with this legislation. It wont change much. The Government owns so much land and they should be the starting point.
The modalities of how this could happen will drag on for years. Everyone will become so numb to it, it will no longer provoke outrage.

From the Business Day a few days ago:
The earthbound realities of South African agriculture make this proposition doubtful in the extreme. The country’s commercial agricultural sector is dependent on large volumes of credit – to the tune of R160bn, of which some two-thirds is held by commercial banks. This is generally secured against the value of farmers’ landholdings.

To embark on a regime of non-compensation would strike at the heart of this. With property rights diluted and land subject to seizure, it is difficult to imagine that banks would retain an appetite for the risk the environment would imply. Indeed, Banking Association SA head Cas Coovadia cautioned against this last year: "Expropriation without compensation erodes property rights. And once this happens land can no longer serve as collateral. This places public and private loans to the agricultural sector – worth roughly R162bn – under threat, and makes financiers more likely to exit the sector."

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:00 am
by Sards
My suggestion.

There are 2 million tax payers.
17 million grant recipients.

Give land to grant recipients in leue of the montjly grant that they receive. Use a portion of the money saved by giving a monthly grant to assist subsidence farming. Use the balance to bail out SOEs

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:05 am
by Wilson's Toffee
Sards wrote:My suggestion.

There are 2 million tax payers.
17 million grant recipients.

Give land to grant recipients in leue of the montjly grant that they receive. Use a portion of the money saved by giving a monthly grant to assist subsidence farming. Use the balance to bail out SOEs

Do you have an idea who the receivers of those grants are ? And their capabilities ?

Most are old, weak, sick, incapable, physically and/or mentally challenged, indigent and totally unskilled, a huge number are children, a large percentage are women, many many are citified young "black diamonds" and salary receivers who also managed to get their hands on a Sassa card.

Doling out land to those will achieve nothing. You cannot farm without skills, tools and money. And you cannot plant much with R1650 per month ... whilst remaining hungry.

EDIT : A huge number of grant receivers are already on some kind of land, in the trust and tribal areas. They cannot make it on subsistence farming there, how will they make it in the traditionally more "white" areas ?

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:08 am
by assfly
I would love to know what a lot of these EFF supports propose to do with the land. It's not like they're going to get a 1 acre plot in Fourways.

Live on it? And commute several hours to the nearest city for work.
Build on it, like a hotel or office park? Hardly revolutionary.
Farm it? Unlikely as most have no idea how to.
Sell it? So it's all just a money grab.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:12 am
by Wilson's Toffee
assfly wrote:I would love to know what a lot of these EFF supports propose to do with the land. It's not like they're going to get a 1 acre plot in Fourways.

Live on it? And commute several hours to the nearest city for work.
Build on it, like a hotel or office park? Hardly revolutionary.
Farm it? Unlikely as most have no idea how to.
Sell it? So it's all just a money grab.

This. "Lease money" They probably think huge co-operations will lease the land back from the EFFs and give them a handsome return on no capital spent. Just hot air and a little toi-toi. A sop to the mob.

And then advancement of the "no land in private hands. all belongs to the State" *as an EFF lawyer Cassiem said the other day, on radio)
Control of the means of production . Pure Marxism. Edit: Making of the slave state.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:16 am
by Wilson's Toffee
Points to ponder :
Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty.


John Adams.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:19 am
by Sards
Wilson's Toffee wrote:
Sards wrote:My suggestion.

There are 2 million tax payers.
17 million grant recipients.

Give land to grant recipients in leue of the montjly grant that they receive. Use a portion of the money saved by giving a monthly grant to assist subsidence farming. Use the balance to bail out SOEs

Do you have an idea who the receivers of those grants are ? And their capabilities ?

Most are old, weak, sick, incapable, physically and/or mentally challenged, indigent and totally unskilled, a huge number are children, a large percentage are women, many many are citified young "black diamonds" and salary receivers who also managed to get their hands on a Sassa card.

Doling out land to those will achieve nothing. You cannot farm without skills, tools and money. And you cannot plant much with R1650 per month ... whilst remaining hungry.

EDIT : A huge number of grant receivers are already on some kind of land, in the trust and tribal areas. They cannot make it on subsistence farming there, how will they make it in the traditionally more "white" areas ?
Isn't that the responsibility of the state to encourage growth and development. There is no money to do this. If we utilise grant money training can be provided and assistance in the form of product.

You know the old story........give a man a fish and he will eat it . Give a man a fishing rod and he will catch his own fish to eat.....or something like that.

Regarding old people...yes that is understandable. But a lot of people are living off grants....
The state is sitting on over 4000 farms. Sub devide these farms into substinance farms and train and equip the people and ensure that they do not remain dependants of the state and obtain some dignity.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:30 am
by jambanja
assfly wrote:I would love to know what a lot of these EFF supports propose to do with the land. It's not like they're going to get a 1 acre plot in Fourways.

Live on it? And commute several hours to the nearest city for work.
Build on it, like a hotel or office park? Hardly revolutionary.
Farm it? Unlikely as most have no idea how to.
Sell it? So it's all just a money grab.
These are the very same questions a doubts we had in Zim...didn’t stop it happening.

It has happened in virtually every single country in Africa, why do you think SA will be any different

The article you quoted about the banks lending etc, it was the same in Zim, probably not to the same extent, but the younger generation of farmers who didn’t inherit daddy’s place were all in debt...still happened

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:31 am
by Wilson's Toffee
Sards - 80% of grant receivers are really unable to work. There are millions pumped into social programs every day. I see this personally. Once a certain mental stage is reached, it is extremely hard to get people to act responsibly, instead of just surviving. And human rights prevent harsher, more "traditional" treatment. Other mental illnesses too, unbelievable the rate of mental illness in our country. And physically many many are under severe constraints as well.

I am afraid this whole set of generations (of adults and late teens) will have to die off, maybe something can really be done for the children .... We too.

We are over populated. And have a birth rate that still adds enormous number of new mouths every day. And decided in our collective bleeding heart wisdom to give the political power to those that "Represent" these hungry indigent mouths. Of course they will take every thing that is on the table. It is there, they want to survive. And they have or are getting the power. Nobody gives a fudge about you or me or morality ...or "fairness" Not if that may hamper them ...

Democracy. What a bowl of shit.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:49 am
by assfly
jambanja wrote:These are the very same questions a doubts we had in Zim...didn’t stop it happening.
The dynamics are totally different. Mugabe unleashed the war vets on the farms as retribution for the farmers backing the MDC. There is no way CR would make that mistake knowing that the consequences will be: compare the sizes of the Zim economy in 2000 to the SA economy now.
jambanja wrote:It has happened in virtually every single country in Africa, why do you think SA will be any different
No it hasn't, this is a grotesque generalisation. Zimbabwe and South Africa have the largest "white settler" (for want of a better name) populations in Africa. Kenya is probably about 3rd behind them, and nothing even close to land expropriation or farm invasions happened here.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:21 am
by Wilson's Toffee
Judging by what I hear this morning the EFF/BLF/others will not have an easy time implementing
land grabs. People are softly softly grumbling ...

Dunno about the authorities, but the land owners/rights holders are getting itchy.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:32 am
by jambanja
assfly wrote:
jambanja wrote:These are the very same questions a doubts we had in Zim...didn’t stop it happening.
The dynamics are totally different. Mugabe unleashed the war vets on the farms as retribution for the farmers backing the MDC. There is no way CR would make that mistake knowing that the consequences will be: compare the sizes of the Zim economy in 2000 to the SA economy now.
jambanja wrote:It has happened in virtually every single country in Africa, why do you think SA will be any different
No it hasn't, this is a grotesque generalisation. Zimbabwe and South Africa have the largest "white settler" (for want of a better name) populations in Africa. Kenya is probably about 3rd behind them, and nothing even close to land expropriation or farm invasions happened here.
Zambia Mozambique Malawi, all expropriated in one form or another, same as Kenya, might not have been land invasions exactly but one way or another it was “expropriated”

It’s already happening in SA, do you think these farm murders are simply acts of crime?

Mugabe unleashed war vets as a show of political power because he’d just lost a referendum, the excuse of farmers supporting the MDC, was just that an excuse, the invasions would have happened regardless.
The CFU put together nearly 5 million hectares of land that the govt could “have” but they weren’t interested because there was no political value in that
Do you honestly believe that someone like Malema with all his political rhetoric is not going to try and force the issue and CR is going to have to be very smart and careful how he deals with this, especially as he’s now cracked open the door by agreeing that is should happen, you offer people something then at some stage they’re going to expect you to deliver, if you don’t then there’s trouble and suddenly you’re the next Zuma/Mugabe, it’s surprising what people will do to survive politically

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:38 am
by Wilson's Toffee
We must take into account that Cyril Ramaphosa is a Communist, first and last. However much big business likes him and however much he seemed to have acquired the capitalist ideal.
Taking over the "means of production" (to let the party faithful run it for the benefit of th eparty) would not be a strange thought to him.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:49 am
by assfly
jambanja wrote:Zambia Mozambique Malawi, all expropriated in one form or another, same as Kenya, might not have been land invasions exactly but one way or another it was “expropriated”
Not exactly "virtually every country in Africa" is it? I'd like to hear more about these expropriations to see how we can even compare them to Zim and SA.
jambanja wrote:It’s already happening in SA, do you think these farm murders are simply acts of crime?
Whilst I agree that the farm attacks are more than opportunistic crime, they are not land invasions or expropriations.
jambanja wrote:Mugabe unleashed war vets as a show of political power because he’d just lost a referendum, the excuse of farmers supporting the MDC, was just that an excuse, the invasions would have happened regardless.
The CFU put together nearly 5 million hectares of land that the govt could “have” but they weren’t interested because there was no political value in that
But CR hasn't just lost a referendum, he's just become president. He will gain very little from allowing expropriation apart from cross floor political support (as it is so unlikely to happen).
jambanja wrote:Do you honestly believe that someone like Malema with all his political rhetoric is not going to try and force the issue and CR is going to have to be very smart and careful how he deals with this, especially as he’s now cracked open the door by agreeing that is should happen, you offer people something then at some stage they’re going to expect you to deliver, if you don’t then there’s trouble and suddenly you’re the next Zuma/Mugabe, it’s surprising what people will do to survive politically
Malema is not president. CR may have opened the door, but this could take years and years to gain any legal foothold. This could be a stroke of political genius by him. If we were talking about Dlamini-Zuma then I'd be far more worried.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:12 am
by jambanja
assfly wrote:
jambanja wrote:Zambia Mozambique Malawi, all expropriated in one form or another, same as Kenya, might not have been land invasions exactly but one way or another it was “expropriated”
Not exactly "virtually every country in Africa" is it? I'd like to hear more about these expropriations to see how we can even compare them to Zim and SA.
jambanja wrote:It’s already happening in SA, do you think these farm murders are simply acts of crime?
Whilst I agree that the farm attacks are more than opportunistic crime, they are not land invasions or expropriations.
jambanja wrote:Mugabe unleashed war vets as a show of political power because he’d just lost a referendum, the excuse of farmers supporting the MDC, was just that an excuse, the invasions would have happened regardless.
The CFU put together nearly 5 million hectares of land that the govt could “have” but they weren’t interested because there was no political value in that
But CR hasn't just lost a referendum, he's just become president. He will gain very little from allowing expropriation apart from cross floor political support (as it is so unlikely to happen).
jambanja wrote:Do you honestly believe that someone like Malema with all his political rhetoric is not going to try and force the issue and CR is going to have to be very smart and careful how he deals with this, especially as he’s now cracked open the door by agreeing that is should happen, you offer people something then at some stage they’re going to expect you to deliver, if you don’t then there’s trouble and suddenly you’re the next Zuma/Mugabe, it’s surprising what people will do to survive politically
Malema is not president. CR may have opened the door, but this could take years and years to gain any legal foothold. This could be a stroke of political genius by him. If we were talking about Dlamini-Zuma then I'd be far more worried.
Fair enough, nothing will happen and it will be business as usual, on that we must agree to disagree, for obvious reasons I have rather pessimistic view of South Africa’s future

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:34 am
by Wilson's Toffee
This just might be the watershed moment that will decide whether South AFrica will fall into teh bottomless pit of squalor that is called "post-liberation"

Or reinvent itself and go ahead to show the world how people can work together.

Maybe the white okes can get Zuma to be their advocate in this ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_Bnp72Tft8

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:17 pm
by assfly
jambanja wrote:Fair enough, nothing will happen and it will be business as usual, on that we must agree to disagree, for obvious reasons I have rather pessimistic view of South Africa’s future
I get that and I you've got good reason for your pessimism. What gets my back up is lazy journalism that equates the situation in South Africa as exactly the same in Zim in 2000.

Re: South Africa the new Zimbabwe

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:21 pm
by assfly
Seneca of the Night wrote:I was watching, for no good reason at all, 'Out of Africa' last night. It sort of made me cry. But it made me wonder. Is there any really good book written on the peculiar European colonisation of East Africa in the early part of the 20th century? It is probably one of history's most peculiar little episodes.
It's a great film. I went past Karen Blixen's house yesterday on my way home.

Two books I'd recommend are The Lunatic Express by Charles Miller, and The eLost Lion of Empire by Edward Paice. Both thoroughly enjoyable books, albeit with a somewhat romantic view of the time.

Unfortunately books written from an African perspective are in short supply, which is a shame.