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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:41 am
by bimboman

Doesn't look like it would cost much to over come in the UK.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:31 am
by merlin the happy pig
guy smiley wrote:
The Man Without Fear wrote:Tesla have a huge headstart over the legacy manufacturers with their supercharger network.

I have owned an EV for nearly a year now, and it's great. Hyundai Ioniq. I have done a public charge twice in that time, and one of those was a test run for when I needed the charge to complete the journey the next day. I am, however, aware that whilst most people don't habitually need to use the public charging network, it is a mess of competing providers, with apps, RFID cards and the like, exclusive to that particular provider. It resembles the supply of electricity in the UK pre-Central Electricity Board. This could be solved by legislation to force all providers to recognise everyone else's apps, or better still, shitcan the bloody apps and go to contactless/PIN.

The Supercharger network, rolled out in huge numbers and with free access for most users to date (not for the Model 3) has given Tesla a real USP - even now, the I-Pace, Taycan (Mission E), E-Tron and EQ, the "Tesla killers" from Jaguar, Porsche, Audi and Mercedes respectively, all of which are either on the market or coming in the next year, still don't have an equivalent. There are moves afoot to rectify this - the Ionity network has big plans, for example, but it's not there yet.
The logical solution here is a model similar to petrol retailing with charge points operating as service stations and there's a market opening there for Tesla, obviously.
There IS a market opening, but it's unlikely to be like existing service stations, or at least not ONLY like existing stations.
Potentially the majority of charging will be at home meaning far fewer charging stations than petrol stations.
The other likely location to charge will be at carparks. Either your or commercial carparks might offer a portion of spots with trickle chargers. Super chargers really only being necessary if you are making a long trip.
We might also see owners of electric cars rent plug in hybrids for long trips rather than have the inconvenience of waiting 45 minutes for a fast charge (assuming there is no queue)

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:26 pm
by goose81
One of the biggest dangers to Tesla is the fact that the Japanese and I believe Korea and half of china see hydrogen as a better alternative than battery. Batteries contains minerals that are finite and un recyclable so the price is only going to go up and up

Japan is installing hydrogen stations everywhere and China is following suit. The great war will be between Hydrogen and Battery not between competing electric car firms

Toyota and Honda and Hyundai and others are all going for hydrogen over battery

I think Euro car makers are being very stupid seemingly putting all their efforts towards ev

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:36 pm
by Duff Paddy
Recently read Musk’s biography. Bloke seems like a complete chancer.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:47 pm
by bimboman
There’s a fight back in Europe from clean diesel and small powerful petroleum, the tech will almost certainly end up in hybrids.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:55 pm
by Duff Paddy
guy smiley wrote:People who break the mould tend to be, Duff.
Just like Elizabeth Holmes :lol:

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:03 pm
by Duff Paddy
guy smiley wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
guy smiley wrote:People who break the mould tend to be, Duff.
Just like Elizabeth Holmes :lol:
I had to google the name...and :lol: :thumbup:
There’s a movie coming out about her next year. Absolutely fascinating chancer that almost got away with it. Modelled herself on steve jobs - black turtle necks, affected a deep voice, the whole god like persona etc. Nearly, very nearly got away with it. Only the technology the company was based upon didn’t actually exist.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:24 pm
by The Man Without Fear
bimboman wrote:There’s a fight back in Europe from clean diesel and small powerful petroleum, the tech will almost certainly end up in hybrids.
"Clean diesel"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:40 pm
by bimboman
The Man Without Fear wrote:
bimboman wrote:There’s a fight back in Europe from clean diesel and small powerful petroleum, the tech will almost certainly end up in hybrids.
"Clean diesel"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Well yes. Much of the lowering of emissions reported in Europe has been because of lower hydrocarbon fuel use.

The diesel industry hasn't just packed up and gone away. The tech is being improved all the time.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:52 pm
by Duff Paddy
Silicon Valley seems to be full of chancers looking for the next industry to “disrupt”. There also seems to be plenty of mega wealthy investors happy to back up these lunatics in fear of missing out on the next Zuckerberg. It is truly remarkable that Holmes got into Walgreens with a technology that didn’t work, like batshit insane that they fooled the board of Walgreens with essentially a bait and switch. I got the chancer vibe from Musk when he was giving himself glowing school reports at odds with the recollections of his teachers and lecturers. At least he seems to have delivered somewhat.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:04 pm
by Duff Paddy
"Just because ... I've always believed innocent until proven guilty. And she is an entrepreneur, her mission was to change healthcare as we know it, to make it an easier system, and she was doing really good work. And then she got the attack, and the attack came so soon, I believe she wasn't prepared for it."
The above is a quote from Tim Draper a billionaire backer of Theranos. It’s like he’s still in the cult. Just because Holmes wanted to disrupt the blood testing industry doesn’t mean she had the means to do so. Siemens must have been laughing as they watched theranos order more and more of their machines.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:08 pm
by Duff Paddy
Seneca of the Night wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:Silicon Valley seems to be full of chancers looking for the next industry to “disrupt”. There also seems to be plenty of mega wealthy investors happy to back up these lunatics in fear of missing out on the next Zuckerberg. It is truly remarkable that Holmes got into Walgreens with a technology that didn’t work, like batshit insane that they fooled the board of Walgreens with essentially a bait and switch. I got the chancer vibe from Musk when he was giving himself glowing school reports at odds with the recollections of his teachers and lecturers. At least he seems to have delivered somewhat.
Holmes was filling a desperate need of the zeitgeist: the female tech genius.
Billionaire (male) venture capitalists don’t put hundreds of millions into a business to fulfil some sort of batshit feminist agenda

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:11 pm
by hermie
Seneca of the Night wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:Silicon Valley seems to be full of chancers looking for the next industry to “disrupt”. There also seems to be plenty of mega wealthy investors happy to back up these lunatics in fear of missing out on the next Zuckerberg. It is truly remarkable that Holmes got into Walgreens with a technology that didn’t work, like batshit insane that they fooled the board of Walgreens with essentially a bait and switch. I got the chancer vibe from Musk when he was giving himself glowing school reports at odds with the recollections of his teachers and lecturers. At least he seems to have delivered somewhat.
Holmes was filling a desperate need of the zeitgeist: the female tech genius.
Marissa Mayer?

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:16 pm
by Duff Paddy
hermie wrote:
Seneca of the Night wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:Silicon Valley seems to be full of chancers looking for the next industry to “disrupt”. There also seems to be plenty of mega wealthy investors happy to back up these lunatics in fear of missing out on the next Zuckerberg. It is truly remarkable that Holmes got into Walgreens with a technology that didn’t work, like batshit insane that they fooled the board of Walgreens with essentially a bait and switch. I got the chancer vibe from Musk when he was giving himself glowing school reports at odds with the recollections of his teachers and lecturers. At least he seems to have delivered somewhat.
Holmes was filling a desperate need of the zeitgeist: the female tech genius.
Marissa Mayer?
Not a founder - we’re talking Jobs, Gates, Ellison, Bezos, Page/Brin Zuckerberg

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:25 pm
by JM2K6
Glad we've solved it - it's the Indians and the feminists.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:29 pm
by bimboman
JM2K6 wrote:Glad we've solved it - it's the Indians and the feminists.

Seemingly an improvment.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:48 pm
by JM2K6
Her and the idiots who throw money at every half arsed "disruptive" tech company without doing due diligence. She just put more effort into the scam than your average tech bro chancer.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:49 pm
by Duff Paddy
JM2K6 wrote:Her and the idiots who throw money at every half arsed "disruptive" tech company without doing due diligence. She just put more effort into the scam than your average tech bro chancer.
The black turtle necks were a nice touch

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:21 pm
by Anonymous 1
Homer wrote:
Anonymous. wrote:
Sensible Stephen wrote:
guy smiley wrote:Interesting email from Musk to employees this week...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/elon-mu ... otage.html


As you know, there are a long list of organizations that want Tesla to die. These include Wall Street short-sellers, who have already lost billions of dollars and stand to lose a lot more. Then there are the oil & gas companies, the wealthiest industry in the world — they don't love the idea of Tesla advancing the progress of solar power & electric cars. Don't want to blow your mind, but rumor has it that those companies are sometimes not super nice. Then there are the multitude of big gas/diesel car company competitors. If they're willing to cheat so much about emissions, maybe they're willing to cheat in other ways?

Elon
Huh? That horse has bolted. If Tesla died tomorrow, electric cars and the path we are on wouldn't.
TBD they would like it to take as long as possible to get to the promised land
Regulatory requirements are driving electrification. The issue is being able to profitably make vehicles that customers want (price, range etc.). All OEMs are spending shit loads on electrification, but they realise that there is not a one-size-fits-all product for all customers and all markets.
And meanwhile they are raking it in with their gas guzzler s. Going at the minimum speed regs dictates is proof enough of feet being dragged.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:46 pm
by JM2K6
Duff Paddy wrote:
JM2K6 wrote:Her and the idiots who throw money at every half arsed "disruptive" tech company without doing due diligence. She just put more effort into the scam than your average tech bro chancer.
The black turtle necks were a nice touch
I always thought it was a little too on the nose but I overestimated the intelligence of the money men.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:20 pm
by merlin the happy pig
guy smiley wrote:
goose81 wrote:One of the biggest dangers to Tesla is the fact that the Japanese and I believe Korea and half of china see hydrogen as a better alternative than battery. Batteries contains minerals that are finite and un recyclable so the price is only going to go up and up

Japan is installing hydrogen stations everywhere and China is following suit. The great war will be between Hydrogen and Battery not between competing electric car firms

Toyota and Honda and Hyundai and others are all going for hydrogen over battery

I think Euro car makers are being very stupid seemingly putting all their efforts towards ev
Hydrogen is interesting and some kind of hydrogen turbine hybrid would be cool...

but China are investing heavily in EV and are setting up to control battery production through their rare earth stocks.
I don't see any way that hydrogen isn't environmental vandalism based purely on the inefficiency of converting renewables energy or hydrocarbons into stored hydrogen.

THE compelling advantage of electrics is efficiency. Transmission losses are low, charging losses are low, discharging losses are low, and the electric motor is also extremely efficient.

Hydrogen by comparison is enormously inefficient to manufacture, distribute, and compress. Imagine you start with clean energy from a power station and extract hydrogen from water (or fossil fuels) store it, transport it, and fill your tank with it. By the time you do that, you have lost more than 50% of the energy you put in.
Then you put it in a combustion engine, or a hydrogen fuel cell and lose 50% of that 50% to drive the wheels.

By the time you drive the wheels you have 25% of the original energy available compared to maybe 80% for pure electric.

The power source may be green, but building 3 x as many power stations to run your car surely isn't.

Anyway, the numbers are pulled from memory and I would advise checking them, but the idea that hydrogen is a green fuel is batshit crazy, it's equivalent to using wind energy to synthesize petrol and run your car on that.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:47 pm
by The Man Without Fear
Hydrogen takes lots of power to generate. Tick!

Hydrogen needs to be pumped, so duty can easily be levied on it. Tick!

Hydrogen cars only emits water, not like the fossil fuels to generate the electricity for those coal powered BEVs. Durrrrr...

And you wonder why certain parties are keen on it.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:49 pm
by merlin the happy pig
The Man Without Fear wrote:Hydrogen takes lots of power to generate. Tick!

Hydrogen needs to be pumped, so duty can easily be levied on it. Tick!

Hydrogen cars only emits water, not like the fossil fuels to generate the electricity for those coal powered BEVs. Durrrrr...

And you wonder why certain parties are keen on it.
which parties?

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:52 pm
by paddyor
kiap wrote:Anon is correct. Also
Sensible Stephen wrote:Huh? That horse has bolted. If Tesla died tomorrow, electric cars and the path we are on wouldn't.
Not necessarily because it's not only about the path.

It's also the speed of going down that path.

Tesla is disrupting the top-end market segments. The Germans; Mercedes, Audi, BMW and their like don't have an electric version to adequately compete at the moment and are still on the combustion engine path.

They have been reverse-engineering the fuck out of Tesla, even as recently as 3 months ago.

If they can steal back 12 to 18 months out of the lead in terms of tech, it's worth its weight in gold.
I've a friend who works in auto manufaturing (in Australia), they can get there sure enough. But they'd much rather milk the assets (patents, production line setc)they've already heavily invested in rather than start again.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:55 pm
by paddyor
Duff Paddy wrote:
JM2K6 wrote:Her and the idiots who throw money at every half arsed "disruptive" tech company without doing due diligence. She just put more effort into the scam than your average tech bro chancer.
The black turtle necks were a nice touch
Image

You'd imagine they'd take the tweet down now.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:59 pm
by paddyor
bimboman wrote:
The Man Without Fear wrote:
bimboman wrote:There’s a fight back in Europe from clean diesel and small powerful petroleum, the tech will almost certainly end up in hybrids.
"Clean diesel"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Well yes. Much of the lowering of emissions reported in Europe has been because of lower hydrocarbon fuel use.

The diesel industry hasn't just packed up and gone away. The tech is being improved all the time.
It's a repackaged Diesel Particulate System isn't it? It can fuck off!

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:06 pm
by paddyor
guy smiley wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
There’s a movie coming out about her next year. Absolutely fascinating chancer that almost got away with it. Modelled herself on steve jobs - black turtle necks, affected a deep voice, the whole god like persona etc. Nearly, very nearly got away with it. Only the technology the company was based upon didn’t actually exist.
A mere trifle.
Indeed.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/elon-musk ... ?r=US&IR=T
Musk's Boring Co. to build a high-speed link between downtown Chicago and O'Hare Airport. Autonomous vehicles are supposed to make the trip in just 12 minutes, at over 100 mph.

It sounds cool, but the proposal as described makes very little sense.

The Tribune says the project "would be able to handle nearly 2,000 passengers per hour in each direction." This is not a high capacity. You can fit 2,000 passengers on a single, crowded New York City subway train — and a subway line can handle 24 of those trains per hour. Even assuming a more comfortable subway load of 1,000 passengers per train, this system would have 1/12 the capacity of a subway line.

The low capacity would stem from the small size of the vehicles, which would carry just 16 passengers each. What is the point of using such small vehicles in a system that connects just two stations?

This all assumes Boring can deliver on its promise of much faster and cheaper tunnel construction, which will rely on technologies the company has not yet shown can work. I'm glad Musk is trying to innovate here — underground rail projects in the US are far more expensive than they should be, and the space is ripe for innovation.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:13 pm
by paddyor
Seneca of the Night wrote:Her Indian partner / boyfriend is equally a dubious character. Been following this car crash for years as its been quite a story in the alt right.
Something to distract them from bitcoins failure I suppose.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:25 pm
by kiap
paddyor wrote:
kiap wrote:Anon is correct. Also
Sensible Stephen wrote:Huh? That horse has bolted. If Tesla died tomorrow, electric cars and the path we are on wouldn't.
Not necessarily because it's not only about the path.

It's also the speed of going down that path.

Tesla is disrupting the top-end market segments. The Germans; Mercedes, Audi, BMW and their like don't have an electric version to adequately compete at the moment and are still on the combustion engine path.

They have been reverse-engineering the fuck out of Tesla, even as recently as 3 months ago.

If they can steal back 12 to 18 months out of the lead in terms of tech, it's worth its weight in gold.
I've a friend who works in auto manufaturing (in Australia), they can get there sure enough. But they'd much rather milk the assets (patents, production line setc)they've already heavily invested in rather than start again.
He or she would be a rare bird.

But, yeah, the existing industry in this world won't want to move quick (unless they're forced).

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:29 pm
by bimboman
paddyor wrote:
bimboman wrote:
The Man Without Fear wrote:
bimboman wrote:There’s a fight back in Europe from clean diesel and small powerful petroleum, the tech will almost certainly end up in hybrids.
"Clean diesel"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Well yes. Much of the lowering of emissions reported in Europe has been because of lower hydrocarbon fuel use.

The diesel industry hasn't just packed up and gone away. The tech is being improved all the time.
It's a repackaged Diesel Particulate System isn't it? It can fuck off!

Nope, much more than that, and stop being so naive.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:50 pm
by Flyin Ryan
Most recent charts I could find.

Image

Image

When I started at Cummins we were on Tier 2 and when I left we were on stage 2 of a Tier 4.

Advances in the time periods shown include variable geometry turbocharging, electronic control units (computer programs in general have led to such greater control and study of combustion events, but an on-board ECU being able to inject fuel based on the power needs at that moment is such a gain from 30 years ago), exhaust gas recirculation, selective catalytic reduction, and aftertreatment.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:32 am
by kiap
Flyin Ryan wrote:Image
Are these real numbers or kraut numbers?

Image

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:00 am
by Flyin Ryan
kiap wrote:
Flyin Ryan wrote:Image
Are these real numbers or kraut numbers?

Image
The one chart is the numbers required by the EU, Japan, and the U.S. for engine makers to meet. There's a 90%+ reduction in real emissions because that's what the regulations have done in 20 years.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:24 am
by Homer
Anonymous. wrote:
Homer wrote:
Anonymous. wrote:
Sensible Stephen wrote: Huh? That horse has bolted. If Tesla died tomorrow, electric cars and the path we are on wouldn't.
TBD they would like it to take as long as possible to get to the promised land
Regulatory requirements are driving electrification. The issue is being able to profitably make vehicles that customers want (price, range etc.). All OEMs are spending shit loads on electrification, but they realise that there is not a one-size-fits-all product for all customers and all markets.
And meanwhile they are raking it in with their gas guzzler s. Going at the minimum speed regs dictates is proof enough of feet being dragged.
Nope. OEMs and Tier 1s are spending billions on 'electrification' and it's not just down to regulations. Every OEM is looking for a competitive advantage.

In the real world companies need to generate profits occasionally. Most companies, governments and individuals understand that.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:00 am
by The Man Without Fear
Electrification means, in many cases, "We're sticking a 48v battery in it" in a lot of cases - the mild hybrid. It might marginally reduce the shit coming out the tailpipes, but in real terms it's another delaying tactic.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:04 am
by bimboman
The Man Without Fear wrote:Electrification means, in many cases, "We're sticking a 48v battery in it" in a lot of cases - the mild hybrid. It might marginally reduce the shit coming out the tailpipes, but in real terms it's another delaying tactic.
A 90% reduction in 20'years is "marginal" now.

I'd also imagine the reason for delaying being partly we don't generate in the ukmfor example anywhere enough electricity for mass use of electric cars.

But as you were.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:17 am
by The Man Without Fear
Who is saying that the reductions in emissions isn't significant or a good thing? Clean diesel is still a lie. Nothing is clean about diesel. Not its extraction, not its refining, not its transportation, not its storage and delivery and 100% not burning the bloody stuff.

The very fact that in order to even vaguely comply with the nonsense laboratory standards VW had to resort to criminal practices (I see the head of Audi was arrested to ensure he doesn't interfere in investigations) should give you a tiny hint that diesel engines are bloody awful for our lungs and for the environment.

Edit: As for your "not enough electricity" another bimbo "It can't be done!" classic. The National Grid are on record as saying it's not going to be a problem with a bit of planning, especially as we're not all going to suddenly leap into EVs and stop driving ICE cars.

But as you were.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:23 am
by bimboman
The Man Without Fear wrote:Who is saying that the reductions in emissions isn't significant or a good thing? Clean diesel is still a lie. Nothing is clean about diesel. Not its extraction, not its refining, not its transportation, not its storage and delivery and 100% not burning the bloody stuff.

The very fact that in order to even vaguely comply with the nonsense laboratory standards VW had to resort to criminal practices (I see the head of Audi was arrested to ensure he doesn't interfere in investigations) should give you a tiny hint that diesel engines are bloody awful for our lungs and for the environment.

Edit: As for your "not enough electricity" another bimbo "It can't be done!" classic. The National Grid are on record as saying it's not going to be a problem with a bit of planning, especially as we're not all going to suddenly leap into EVs and stop driving ICE cars.

But as you were.

"Delay" vs "bit of planning"


And you'd shit a brick if you saw how Lithium was dug and your Loverly clean batteries produced.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:30 am
by ChipSpike
Slow takeup might be down to electric cars costing twice as much as IC cars.

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:07 pm
by Homer
The Man Without Fear wrote:Electrification means, in many cases, "We're sticking a 48v battery in it" in a lot of cases - the mild hybrid. It might marginally reduce the shit coming out the tailpipes, but in real terms it's another delaying tactic.
The objective is to reduce emissions/environmental impact of vehicles. Ways of doing that include mHEV, HEV, pHEV and BEV. You might view it as a delaying tactic, but globally consumers have very different needs and wants. Currently BEVs are really not suitable for many consumers (cost, range, charging infrastructure etc.)