Planet Rugby Forum

Hi All

I've decided I'm going to run a (free, fun) 6N prediction competition (more on why below, for the curious). The winner 'gets' €300 which will be donated to their choice of one of the following charities:

• Simon Community (Homeless)
• St. Vincent de Paul (general poverty)
• Medecin sans Frontieres
• Irish Cancer Society

How it works
Entry and participation are FREE and very easy - see below - you just post your predicted winning margin for each 6N match in this thread. Each entrant will be assigned to a pool based on their home/chosen country (or one I assign them if numbers don't work, or entrants don't care) - we'll therefore, insofar as possible have pools representing the different countries. Each 6N week there'll be match-ups based on the actual fixtures - with each pair competing on how accurately they can predict the winning margins in the games in that weekend. Within each pool you'll be competing on a head-to-head weekly basis, with a pool league table similar to the 6N itself. Feel free to compete for sig bets or just for the bragging rights. The 'main' competition (for which the €50 prize will be awarded) sees everybody compete on the basis of the accuracy of their predictions. I'll maintain a master league table.
Every Monday/Tuesday after the conclusion of that weekends 6N games I'll post, in this thread, updated pool tables for each pool and the overall master pool table.

More formal rules and details of scoring (for clarity) will be posted in a separate post.

How you enter and play
To enter, just post two things in this thread, before the start of the 6N next Friday 1st Feb:
- your preferred country (or none, if you don't care)
- which of the charities you'd select if you win

To play, just post your predictions (e.g. Wales to win by 12), in this thread, in advance of that weekends 6N fixtures.

Why I'm doing it
I recently lost a good friend and work colleague to cancer, after a long battle, through which he fought to the end, but more importantly (and typical of the man) he continued supporting all the charities (see above) with whom he had tirelessly worked over the years. He was also a big rugby fan, and as we have many people from the UK (and also a couple of Italians and French) working with us, the craic was always mighty around 6N time. He used to run a prediction competition/sweep each year which had a similar structure to this - we'd put a €5 into the kitty and there were prizes for each pool and for the overall winner. As I was thinking of him this week, I decided I'll do something similar here - even if he never (to my knowledge) visited the bored. Also, in the best PR tradition of FHHD, I've improved the scoring system. RIP John.

Edit: Many thanks to to clydecloggie, Woddy, waguser and Zappaman who (additionally to my contribution) have added to the prize fund

As promised, rules and scoring details

Scoring
For the pool-based competition, the average (absolute) margin of error over the fixtures that week will be used. The player in each head-to-head match-up with the lower value will be declared the winner and awarded 4 points. In the event of a tie, each player will be awarded 2 points
For the master league table, a score between 0 and 1000 will be calculated each week for each player. The score will consider all of their predictions in this years competition to date, accounting for how big their average error is (lower is better), how much that error varies (lower variation is better) and how many predictions they have made (higher is better).

Rules
1. Is Sacred
2. Any prediction for a fixture entered after kickoff of that fixture will be void, as will any edited predictions
3. In head-to-head pool matchups, a player who submits no predictions for that round will receive no points that week. A missing prediction for one fixture, or two fixtures will be considered as an error of 20 in each missing fixture for the purposes of deciding head-to-head winners.
4. Updated pool and master league tables will be posted in this thread, on Monday or Tuesday after that weekend's games have concluded
5. In ‘short-handed’ pools (i.e. less than 6 players), matchups will work as follows:

• In 5 handed pools, each player will have one ‘bye’ week, where they will receive 4 match points if they enter a prediction - such predictions will still contribute to their score on the master league table
• In 4 handed pools, each player will have two ‘bye’ weeks, where they will receive 4 match points if they enter a prediction - such predictions will still contribute to their score on the master league table
• In 3 handed pools, each player will have one ‘bye’ week, where they will receive 4 match points if they enter a prediction - such predictions will still contribute to their score on the master league table. They will be matched twice against each other player in their pool.

6. Resolution of ties

• In the pool match-ups, a tie will see equal points awarded to each player
• At the conclusion of the pool stages, in the event that players are tied, then players will be ranked by their position in the master league table
• Random selection

To make it easier why don't you latch onto the Superbru event that many of us use?

LandOTurk wrote:To make it easier why don't you latch onto the Superbru event that many of us use?

not familiar with that LandOTurk - but if it is on the same basis (i.e. score difference) then why not - people can just duplicate their predictions here I guess....

Cool

My Preferred country's Ireland

My preferred charity is Medicine Sans Frontiers (I help vinnie, Simon and Irish cancer society at different points locally anyway)

In the spirit of the competition I will also offer to Match the OP's €50 in Donation to charity of choice of the winner!



1st Week

France to beat Wales by 3 points
Ireland to beat England by 10 points
Scotland to beat Italy by 20 points.

* I reserve right to edit this prediction up to day before match

Country: Australia
Charity: St Vincent

Thanks Wag - top man. Very generous of you.

I'll us this post to keep track of entrants, pools etc:

Ireland (15): waguser (MSF), ZappaMan (MSF), MrJonno (MSF), EverReady (MSF), Diego (MSF), CM11 (MSF), myselfandmydog (ICS), rageagainstthemachine (Simon), quarter2four (ICS), alliswell (SVdP), Conspicuous (Simon), Captain Average (MSF), iarmhiman (MSF), Winnie (Simon), Trostan (SVdP)
England (4): ragyboy (SVdP), Woddy (MSF), Will Tell (MSF), nuffsaid (MSF)
Wales (3): easyray (Simon), Jeff the Bear (SVdP), cubby boi (Simon)
Scotland (3): clydecloggie (MSF), slick (MSF),Caley_Red (SVdP)
France (2): Puma (MSF), clementinfrance (Simon)
Italy (3): FullbackAce (MSF), brokerGobroke (MSF), Zakar (MSF)

Unattached (will be allocated to balance individual pools, or possibly to 'own-country' pools if we get enough players):
Australia (1): CrazyIslander (SVdP)
NZ (1): Enzedder (SVdP)
Other (1): Akkerman (MSF), tcc_dc (ICS), Hong Kong (ICS)

Total entrants: 35

Why don't you have Oz, NZ, SA pools

DeDoc wrote:Thanks Wag - top man. Very generous of you.

I will also commit Zappaman to €100 worth value of the currency whatever god foresaken souless tax haven the f*cker is hiding from the appropriate Authorities in. He can afford way more but I know how scabby he is so €100 will hurt him plenty and as much as 10k would a normal human being.

I will also committ €5 of fellow Trade Union Stalwart Malahide Mullet a man whose conversion to true comrade is underway and whose lunch money I can collect with menaces at any juncture

Looks like a nice little tourney Doc.

I'm in.
Country of choice - England. Charity - St Vincent.

I shall post my predictions on Fri after studying team selections.

Going to be an interesting 6N this year although I fear England's goose will be cooked after round 1.
Which kind of gives me a dilemma.
Do I predict with my head or my heart in round 1 ? ie. all common sense points towards a comfortable Irish victory (personally I think they'll win by a margin somewhere in the 11-20 point range)
However, given that a lot of people involved in the tourney will be Irish and will be predicting this type of victory, I could take an early league lead by opposing this view and predicting that England could get a lot closer (and maybe even win ! Stranger things have happened)

I'm a sucker for this type of competition, considering tactics before a ball has been kicked.
I wonder if Eddie Jones will be having a fiver on a private wager with Joe to make it more interesting ?

waguser wrote:

DeDoc wrote:Thanks Wag - top man. Very generous of you.

I will also commit Zappaman to €100 worth value of the currency whatever god foresaken souless tax haven the f*cker is hiding from the appropriate Authorities in. He can afford way more but I know how scabby he is so €100 will hurt him plenty and as much as 10k would a normal human being.

I will also committ €5 of fellow Trade Union Stalwart Malahide Mullet a man whose conversion to true comrade is underway and whose lunch money I can collect with menaces at any juncture

Ok, I’m in for €100 - MSF is my charity. I’ll make my picks next week.

CrazyIslander wrote:Why don't you have Oz, NZ, SA pools

The general idea was to have one fan of each nation competing against each other within each pool. We're not likely to get enough Italians and French I'd guess, and possibly not a balanced number of other nations (especially if entry gets 'swarmed'). If I get enough Oz, NZ and SA entrants I'll happily make pools of them, once we're balanced elsewhere.

ZappaMan wrote:

waguser wrote:

DeDoc wrote:Thanks Wag - top man. Very generous of you.

I will also commit Zappaman to €100 worth value of the currency whatever god foresaken souless tax haven the f*cker is hiding from the appropriate Authorities in. He can afford way more but I know how scabby he is so €100 will hurt him plenty and as much as 10k would a normal human being.

I will also committ €5 of fellow Trade Union Stalwart Malahide Mullet a man whose conversion to true comrade is underway and whose lunch money I can collect with menaces at any juncture

Ok, I’m in for €100 - MSF is my charity. I’ll make my picks next week.

Jaysus - thats very generous Zappa - I really didn't anticipate anyone needing to put any cash up to get involved, but very appreciated nonetheless.

Ireland and MSF
I'll pick after I scoop up my brains and pour them back in my ears after the provincial performances this weekend.

So that's €200 now going to the winner's chosen charity.

Very generous lads !

EverReady wrote:

ragyboy wrote:So that's €200 now going to the winner's chosen charity.

Very generous lads !

€350 no?

Ireland and MSF. Same as Johnno I will do my poicks later and I also donate €100 of Zappa's money

Haha, no - I put up 50, which has now been increased thanks to the two lads.

I am just outside the Western Union, what should I do now?

Deadly Derek wrote:I am just outside the Western Union, what should I do now?

turn around and go in to Paddy Power and put €50 on Ebola Dream flyer in the 3rd at Punchestown

Deadly Derek wrote:I am just outside the Western Union, what should I do now?

Walk inside and wire £20k to Australia for C.I. Then send me the number and I'll make sure it goes to the right charity

DeDoc wrote:

EverReady wrote:

ragyboy wrote:So that's €200 now going to the winner's chosen charity.

Very generous lads !

€350 no?

Ireland and MSF. Same as Johnno I will do my poicks later and I also donate €100 of Zappa's money

Haha, no - I put up 50, which has now been increased thanks to the two lads.

I'll do 100 too, €200 plus 100Kc (Czech Crowns)=............ Woo-hoo we're up to €204

Ireland by 15
France by 5
Italy by 2

Ireland by 15 Jonno ??

Not giving us much of a chance there my stout-swilling pal !

ragyboy wrote:Ireland by 15 Jonno ??

Not giving us much of a chance there my stout-swilling pal !

Opening match (for them) something is going to go wrong and I don't want to consider the alternative!

De ]doc, I'll join in.

My country of origin is Argentina, but I 'll be supporting France.

The Charity I'd choose is Medecins sans frontieres.

Thanks for the initiative!

Ireland, MSF

Good luck to all. I'll not be predicting but win or lose some funds will go to Macmillan (for my mum) and Diabetes UK.

I'll put up £50.

England and MSF as my preferences.

Wales by 5
Scotland by 20
Ireland by 15

Solid idea. Top man. Sign me up for £50 as well.

Scotland, MSF.

France by 2
Scotland by 14
Ireland by 8.

Picks locked.

So from the 4 people who have so far posted with their predictions we have:

Ireland by 8,
Ireland by 10
Ireland by 15
Ireland by 15

This is playing right in to my hands for when 'The Chariot' rolls in to Dublin and spoils the party.

NB
All the pledges for charity are fantastic but just so I can feel a little less guilty, I don't think it was Doc's original intention to raise a bunch of cash, more just to have a bit of fun with the 6N for which he was prepared to put up a prize that goes to the winner's chosen charity.

In other words we don't want people to avoid joining the prediction competition in case they think they ought to be making a donation.

ragyboy wrote:NB
All the pledges for charity are fantastic but just so I can feel a little less guilty, I don't think it was Doc's original intention to raise a bunch of cash, more just to have a bit of fun with the 6N for which he was prepared to put up a prize that goes to the winner's chosen charity.

In other words we don't want people to avoid joining the prediction competition in case they think they ought to be making a donation.

ragy - yes, I did want people to just have some fun. As it is also personal to me I was going to donate some cash to one of a few particular charities, and I thought that might further incentivise people to play. I certainly didn't intend it as an 'ante' that people would feel they had to match to join in. I am however, humbled and grateful for the generosity shown so far.

DeDoc wrote:

ragyboy wrote:NB
All the pledges for charity are fantastic but just so I can feel a little less guilty, I don't think it was Doc's original intention to raise a bunch of cash, more just to have a bit of fun with the 6N for which he was prepared to put up a prize that goes to the winner's chosen charity.

In other words we don't want people to avoid joining the prediction competition in case they think they ought to be making a donation.

ragy - yes, I did want people to just have some fun. As it is also personal to me I was going to donate some cash to one of a few particular charities, and I thought that might further incentivise people to play. I certainly didn't intend it as an 'ante' that people would feel they had to match to join in. I am however, humbled and grateful for the generosity shown so far.

Thanks for clearing that up Doc.

Come on then armchair experts ! Get your predictions up ! There must be a few more Welsh know-all's out there who fancy their chances at being top dog with their picks !

DeDoc wrote:

ragyboy wrote:NB
All the pledges for charity are fantastic but just so I can feel a little less guilty, I don't think it was Doc's original intention to raise a bunch of cash, more just to have a bit of fun with the 6N for which he was prepared to put up a prize that goes to the winner's chosen charity.

In other words we don't want people to avoid joining the prediction competition in case they think they ought to be making a donation.

ragy - yes, I did want people to just have some fun. As it is also personal to me I was going to donate some cash to one of a few particular charities, and I thought that might further incentivise people to play. I certainly didn't intend it as an 'ante' that people would feel they had to match to join in. I am however, humbled and grateful for the generosity shown so far.

Thank fk for that, I didn't sleep well last night thinking about those 3 beers I wouldn't be able to buy with that 4 Euro. I'll sleep better tonight though

MrJonno wrote:

DeDoc wrote:

ragyboy wrote:NB
All the pledges for charity are fantastic but just so I can feel a little less guilty, I don't think it was Doc's original intention to raise a bunch of cash, more just to have a bit of fun with the 6N for which he was prepared to put up a prize that goes to the winner's chosen charity.

In other words we don't want people to avoid joining the prediction competition in case they think they ought to be making a donation.

ragy - yes, I did want people to just have some fun. As it is also personal to me I was going to donate some cash to one of a few particular charities, and I thought that might further incentivise people to play. I certainly didn't intend it as an 'ante' that people would feel they had to match to join in. I am however, humbled and grateful for the generosity shown so far.

Thank fk for that, I didn't sleep well last night thinking about those 3 beers I wouldn't be able to buy with that 4 Euro. I'll sleep better tonight though

Where are you getting beers for €1.33c Jonno ?

Is this a private club or can anyone join ?

ragyboy wrote:

MrJonno wrote:

DeDoc wrote:

ragyboy wrote:NB
All the pledges for charity are fantastic but just so I can feel a little less guilty, I don't think it was Doc's original intention to raise a bunch of cash, more just to have a bit of fun with the 6N for which he was prepared to put up a prize that goes to the winner's chosen charity.

In other words we don't want people to avoid joining the prediction competition in case they think they ought to be making a donation.

ragy - yes, I did want people to just have some fun. As it is also personal to me I was going to donate some cash to one of a few particular charities, and I thought that might further incentivise people to play. I certainly didn't intend it as an 'ante' that people would feel they had to match to join in. I am however, humbled and grateful for the generosity shown so far.

Thank fk for that, I didn't sleep well last night thinking about those 3 beers I wouldn't be able to buy with that 4 Euro. I'll sleep better tonight though

Where are you getting beers for €1.33c Jonno ?

Is this a private club or can anyone join ?

Czech Rep, its actually less in the countryside though in central Prague it is more like €2..... b@stards.

Ireland
MSF

Ireland by 13
Scotland by 24
France by 3

Italy
MSF



France by 4
Scotland by 17
Ireland by 9

St Vincent

England 5
Scotland 10
France 7

Yes please - count me in

Kiwi with no NH allegiances

Charity would be Vinnies please

First round picks

Wales to beat France by 8 points
Ireland to beat England by 10 points
Scotland to beat Italy by 18 points.