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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:53 pm 
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France by 10
Ireland by 40
Italy by 3


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:58 pm 
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They are good ones as well. I might take one of each


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:23 pm 
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Predictions for Rd. 2

Ireland by 8
Wales by 28
England by 8


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:42 pm 
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Round 2

Ireland by 10
Wales by 15
England by 5

Don't get the scoring in the tables in the first round. Think I was up against Zappaman, who scored well and I didn't. Yet I've got 4 points and he's got 0. ????


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:04 pm 
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Totally lost by the scoring, came high in the big list but low in my group. If this wasn't for charity you would be getting a much angrier post. Really angry.

Anyway, love charity mate!

Scotland by 6
Wales by 36
France by 8


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:08 pm 
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england by 14
scotland by 1
wales by 19


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:53 pm 
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I don't understand the scoring either, I got every match wrong and was out by about 100 points each time. Having said that I did get 0 points and I am ahead of ER so all's good!


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:01 pm 
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Woddy wrote:
Round 2

Ireland by 10
Wales by 15
England by 5

Don't get the scoring in the tables in the first round. Think I was up against Zappaman, who scored well and I didn't. Yet I've got 4 points and he's got 0. ????


Hi Woddy, for the head to heads the lowest total error for the three fixtures in that round is the winner. You had a total error of 34 and Zappa had an error of 48. So you won the head2head in the pool matchup.
For the master league table, it also considers how much the error varies - Zappa was relatively consistent in his errors (18, 15, 15) compared to you (0, 7, 27) and that consistency outweighed the higher average error. I really wouldn't pay too much attention for the first couple of weeks, it'll settle down rapidly, once the number of games increases.

@ slick and @MrJonno - see above.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:56 pm 
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This prick is going to try and sell us a monorail next


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:41 am 
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EverReady wrote:
This prick is going to try and sell us a monorail next


You'll take one track and be happy be with it :evil:

And be thankful that I'm throwing in a frisky au-pair for free, as I'm a generous sort like that.... 8)


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:00 am 
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Location: End of the road, turn right and first house on the left
Ireland by 13
Wales by 28
England by 14


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:01 am 
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DeDoc wrote:
Woddy wrote:
Round 2

Ireland by 10
Wales by 15
England by 5

Don't get the scoring in the tables in the first round. Think I was up against Zappaman, who scored well and I didn't. Yet I've got 4 points and he's got 0. ????


Hi Woddy, for the head to heads the lowest total error for the three fixtures in that round is the winner. You had a total error of 34 and Zappa had an error of 48. So you won the head2head in the pool matchup.
For the master league table, it also considers how much the error varies - Zappa was relatively consistent in his errors (18, 15, 15) compared to you (0, 7, 27) and that consistency outweighed the higher average error. I really wouldn't pay too much attention for the first couple of weeks, it'll settle down rapidly, once the number of games increases.

@ slick and @MrJonno - see above.

Thanks for the explanation DeDoc. Don't get the rationale for factoring in consistency of error, but no matter - it's all good fun!


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:21 am 
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Woddy wrote:
DeDoc wrote:
Woddy wrote:
Round 2

Ireland by 10
Wales by 15
England by 5

Don't get the scoring in the tables in the first round. Think I was up against Zappaman, who scored well and I didn't. Yet I've got 4 points and he's got 0. ????


Hi Woddy, for the head to heads the lowest total error for the three fixtures in that round is the winner. You had a total error of 34 and Zappa had an error of 48. So you won the head2head in the pool matchup.
For the master league table, it also considers how much the error varies - Zappa was relatively consistent in his errors (18, 15, 15) compared to you (0, 7, 27) and that consistency outweighed the higher average error. I really wouldn't pay too much attention for the first couple of weeks, it'll settle down rapidly, once the number of games increases.

@ slick and @MrJonno - see above.

Thanks for the explanation DeDoc. Don't get the rationale for factoring in consistency of error, but no matter - it's all good fun!


You're welcome Woddy

The rationale is down to some basic principles of statistics. We'd like to reward the best predictor, and we're doing that with a small sample of their predictions, so we're only making an estimate. If the individual (few) predictions we do have vary a lot, then we can be less sure about what the (long term) average is than if we have less variation


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:41 pm 
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Ireland by 6
England by 12
Wales by 21


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:15 pm 
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DeDoc wrote:
EverReady wrote:
This prick is going to try and sell us a monorail next


You'll take one track and be happy be with it :evil:

And be thankful that I'm throwing in a frisky au-pair for free, as I'm a generous sort like that.... 8)


You can pick my scores baby


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:57 pm 
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Ireland by 15

England by 10

Wales by 25


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:29 pm 
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Ireland by 17
Wales by 32
England by 12


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:17 pm 
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Scotland by 7
Wales by 11
England by 9


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:45 pm 
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19 people still to predict.
Average predictions so far are:
Ireland by 2.1
Wales by 25.2
England by 10.5

If these turn out to be correct, then, we'll see some big movers in the table:

(Last weeks score in brackets)
Code:
Akkerman   190 (1)
clydecloggie   266 (4)
CM11   98 (1)
CrazyIslander   310 (165)
Diego   377  (20)
Enzedder   196 (2)
EverReady   0 (0)
FullbackAce   221 (4)
Mr Jonno   0 (0)
nuffsaid   189 (3)
Puma   308 (35)
rageagainstthemachine   136 (4)
slick   130 (23)
waguser   155 (3)
Woddy   96 (0)
ZappaMan   0 (56)


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:01 pm 
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Ireland by 8
Wales by 18
England by 16


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:16 pm 
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Location: 'Merica
Ireland by 15
England by 3
Wales by 10


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:58 pm 
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Location: Haunting your dreams
Ireland by 7
Wales by 3
England by 12


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:53 am 
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Location: Switz.
Ireland by 3 (was leaning Scots by 3 but too many injuries)
Wales by 17
Eng by 14

You know, because you need to know.

Barry the B


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:40 pm 
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Ireland by 10
Wales by 30
England by 15


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:34 pm 
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My mind may be temporarily addled as I've just made short work of a bottle of wine having returned from a mammoth 10 hour trip after picking up my new car in Plymouth of all places and driven it back to the North East.

However I have had a look at teams and digested my thoughts from last weekend so this week I have adopted the tactic of NOT looking at the bookies handicaps (who are rarely far away) and also not paying any attention to previous post. I got influenced by the common view last weekend where really I should have gone out on a limb and backed England to do it.

I'm also gambling a little with some 'optimistic' predictions hoping that this will separate me from 'The Crowd' and gain some ground in the league standings if successful.

Here we go :

Ireland by 9
Wales by 23
England by 16

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST SPORTS FANS !


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:38 pm 
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Hmphh !
Having done that blind as it were, now checked everyone else's predictions and it looks like I'm not that different from everyone else !

I was expecting a more wide range of opinions.
Will be interesting if the Doc would kindly crunch the numbers and give us 'The wisdom of the Crowd' averages to see how they line up against bookie's prices.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:48 pm 
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ragyboy wrote:
Will be interesting if the Doc would kindly crunch the numbers and give us 'The wisdom of the Crowd' averages to see how they line up against bookie's prices.


Your wish is my command chief!

Mr. Bookmaker says:

Ireland by 5.5
Wales by 17.5
England by 13.5

Collective PR wisdom, based on the average margin predicted by the 22 who've submitted to date is:

Ireland by 3.9
Wales by 22.9
England by 11.1

If we use a weighted prediction (weighting by the scores in the master league table) we get
Scotland by 1.9
Wales by 13.6
England by 9.9

It should be noted that these have been biased a little by 'controversial' predictions by certain players who scored well in last weeks predictions. No names, but they might have a thing for scarves :lol:
If we zap the predictions by that man from our calculations we get:
Ireland by 2.9
Wales by 12.1
England by 11.4


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:56 pm 
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Ireland by 13
Wales by 22
England by 12


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:00 pm 
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Location: Dublin
Scotland by 6
Wales by 25
England by 10


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:13 am 
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DeDoc wrote:
ragyboy wrote:
Will be interesting if the Doc would kindly crunch the numbers and give us 'The wisdom of the Crowd' averages to see how they line up against bookie's prices.


Your wish is my command chief!

Mr. Bookmaker says:

Ireland by 5.5
Wales by 17.5
England by 13.5

Collective PR wisdom, based on the average margin predicted by the 22 who've submitted to date is:

Ireland by 3.9
Wales by 22.9
England by 11.1

If we use a weighted prediction (weighting by the scores in the master league table) we get
Scotland by 1.9
Wales by 13.6
England by 9.9

It should be noted that these have been biased a little by 'controversial' predictions by certain players who scored well in last weeks predictions. No names, but they might have a thing for scarves :lol:
If we zap the predictions by that man from our calculations we get:
Ireland by 2.9
Wales by 12.1
England by 11.4


Thanks Doc. Quick work. I'm more and more intrigued as to how effective the PR collective brains will fare !


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:17 am 
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ROUND 2

Ireland by 5
Wales by 18
England by 15


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:48 pm 
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England by 12 points
Wales by 20 points
Ireland by 8 points.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:35 pm 
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BOOM Stockdale !

Got him and O'Mahony as MOTM


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:57 pm 
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Ireland leading by 9 (my prediction)

Puma getting his arse felt.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:10 pm 
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Yes!!! Clydecloggy crushed by me


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:24 pm 
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That's twice on the trot I've predicted the first game exactly right (but still nowhere in the league)

Well done Ireland. I predicted them to win by 9 so when I saw the bookies handicap of -6 I had a decent bet.
Also got the first half of my Hail Mary double live too with O'Mahony getting it.
Either Johnny May or Ben Young's MOTM tomorrow to land a whopper !


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:28 pm 
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Zakar and WillTell hold their positions at the top after the first game. Zappa drops right down after going for a big Scotland win. Diego makes a push for the top, coming in to third.

Nice work from ragy and Trostan on getting the margin exactly right. Will be cheering Johnny May for your double tomorrow Ragyboy!

Edit: up to 7th after that game ragyboy!


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:13 pm 
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Thanks Doc !

Wales currently only 19-10 as I type so could be heading for a bad result in this fixture although my thinking was that they would score a couple of tries in the final 15 mins.

Let's see how good my crystal ball is !!


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:21 pm 
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There's one !

Now by my calculations from 19-10 up with 2 (converted) tries to come in the last 15 mins we end up with an EXACT MARGIN OF 23 points.

Oooh I can feel a push on the league leadership coming on !

Great banter this thread!


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:28 pm 
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Ouch ! Italy try.

They wrecked a big winning margin bet for me last week by coming back against the Jocks.

Irksome Latin types, they refuse to lie down.
Good sign for Italian rugby in general mind !


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