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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 4:45 pm 
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perhaps we can keep the Brexit-specific discussion to the other 2/3 threads, this is really a thread for all the countries taking part in these elections and for the overall results

here are the current projections from Europe Elects based on the final opinion polls going into the elections (vs 2014):

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the traditional centre-left (S&D) and centre-right (EPP) groupings look like they're going to take a kicking across the board, the liberal/Europhile grouping (ALDE) looks like it'll enjoy a mini-resurgence thanks to Macron and the Lib Dems, but the big story is really going to be rise of the Eurosceptic groupings which (although massively fractured) might take anywhere between 25-35% of the total seats


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 4:48 pm 
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the big news from Day 1 - Geert Wilders' PVV is facing a wipeout in Dutch voting

Quote:
Ring-wing PVV (ENF group in the EU Parliament) has been the major eurosceptic force in the Netherlands since the party was founded in 2006 and is currently in the European Parliament with four representatives. However, our projection currently sees them taking only one of the 26 Dutch seats in the EU Parliament (MEPs) in this election. The culprit for electoral loss is a new party right of the centre.

The national-conservative newcomer FvD (ECR Group in the EU Parliament) shocked the Dutch political field during the provincial election in April this year as they became the largest force with 14.5% of the votes. They gained a lot of seats from the PVV (ENF) in the regional elections and are expected to do the same during the European election. The party is projected to gain 5 MEPs – but it remains unclear how many voters of the largely eurosceptic electorate will turn out to vote.

The liberal party VVD (ALDE Group in the EU Parliament) became the biggest party in the last three general elections in the Netherlands but has never managed to win a European election until now. That could change this Thursday – the party of Prime Minister Mark Rutte is currently at five seats (+2) in our latest projection. Their coalition partner and fellow liberal party D66 (ALDE) received most votes during the last European election with four seats but, according to our latest projection, they will lose two of their current seats and enter the European Parliament with two representatives this time.


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 5:17 pm 
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Your 2nd post contradicts your first:

openclashXX wrote:
but the big story is really going to be rise of the Eurosceptic groupings

openclashXX wrote:
the big news from Day 1 - Geert Wilders' PVV is facing a wipeout in Dutch voting


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 5:27 pm 
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not if you see which party is going to replace them:

Quote:
Mr Baudet, a 36-year-old political novice, has usurped Geert Wilders as the Netherlands’ most brash, extreme-right Eurosceptic whose tweets, speeches and Instagram posts fill plenty of Dutch column inches and hours of TV airtime.

Foreign Policy magazine last year dubbed Mr Baudet and his Forum for Democracy as part of a "disease of Dutch white nationalism". Mr Baudet this week wrote a review of the work of French novelist Michel Houellebecq where he questioned whether women really want to be in “equal relationships”.

The nationalist leader has also been “flirting with Nexit” for a long time, “constantly calling Brussels the root of all evil”.


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 5:33 pm 
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easyray wrote:
Your 2nd post contradicts your first:

openclashXX wrote:
but the big story is really going to be rise of the Eurosceptic groupings

openclashXX wrote:
the big news from Day 1 - Geert Wilders' PVV is facing a wipeout in Dutch voting



It doesn’t actually....


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:05 pm 
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So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:21 pm 
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iarmhiman wrote:
So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament



Ever increasing numbers of parties allied to stop change, won’t stop change , it will just delay it and probably increase the risk of it being disruptive.


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:24 pm 
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Change? No one has ever explained what "remain and reform from within" actually means. Reform what?


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:32 pm 
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iarmhiman wrote:
So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament


it's not quite as simple as that though is it? the types of "pro-Europe" parties sitting with the ALDE are quite different to those in the EPP and S&D

in Germany for example, the difference in policy between Merkel's CDU (which sits with the EPP) and the FDP (which sits with the ALDE) is enormous

the ALDE parties are more explicitly pro-integration, whereas the ones that sit in the EPP and S&D are supporters of the European project but are broadly happy with the status quo. so a shift from one to the other would still be a meaningful change


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:43 pm 
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Correct but as the eurosceptic parties increase in numbers threatening the pro EU majority, that's where the pro EU parties will form a coalition to ward off that threat


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:45 pm 
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iarmhiman wrote:
Correct but as the eurosceptic parties increase in numbers threatening the pro EU majority, that's where the pro EU parties will form a coalition to ward off that threat



You realise the folly of that in the long run don’t you?


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:56 pm 
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iarmhiman wrote:
Correct but as the eurosceptic parties increase in numbers threatening the pro EU majority, that's where the pro EU parties will form a coalition to ward off that threat


that's really the wrong way to look at it

it's more like the centre-ground is slowly collapsing, and the EU is (like everything) increasingly becoming a binary policy question of whether voters want more integration or less


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 8:17 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament


it's not quite as simple as that though is it? the types of "pro-Europe" parties sitting with the ALDE are quite different to those in the EPP and S&D

in Germany for example, the difference in policy between Merkel's CDU (which sits with the EPP) and the FDP (which sits with the ALDE) is enormous

the ALDE parties are more explicitly pro-integration, whereas the ones that sit in the EPP and S&D are supporters of the European project but are broadly happy with the status quo. so a shift from one to the other would still be a meaningful change

I think the point is that all three are basically pro EU. And will have enough seats to run parliament between them.


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 8:27 pm 
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camroc1 wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament


it's not quite as simple as that though is it? the types of "pro-Europe" parties sitting with the ALDE are quite different to those in the EPP and S&D

in Germany for example, the difference in policy between Merkel's CDU (which sits with the EPP) and the FDP (which sits with the ALDE) is enormous

the ALDE parties are more explicitly pro-integration, whereas the ones that sit in the EPP and S&D are supporters of the European project but are broadly happy with the status quo. so a shift from one to the other would still be a meaningful change

I think the point is that all three are basically pro EU. And will have enough seats to run parliament between them.


that was always a given - even after this election the Eurosceptic wing of Parliament is still too small and too much of a disorganised rabble to have any meaningful impact on policy

the Eurosceptics will spend most of their time squabbling over which grouping they want to sit in (Judean People's Front vs People's Front of Judea etc etc) and even if they do come to some consensus, most of them are too lazy/apathetic towards the EU to even turn up for the debates/votes - so they won't have any great say (although that suits them when they sell the message of how undemocratic the EU is to their home electorate)

but as I said, even a shift within the Europhile wing is a big thing as it supports this idea of the "political centre" being hollowed out and politics across Europe becoming increasingly polarised


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 8:31 pm 
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easyray wrote:
Your 2nd post contradicts your first:

openclashXX wrote:
but the big story is really going to be rise of the Eurosceptic groupings

openclashXX wrote:
the big news from Day 1 - Geert Wilders' PVV is facing a wipeout in Dutch voting

It's all this brexit stuff mate


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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 11:59 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
not if you see which party is going to replace them:

Quote:
Mr Baudet, a 36-year-old political novice, has usurped Geert Wilders as the Netherlands’ most brash, extreme-right Eurosceptic whose tweets, speeches and Instagram posts fill plenty of Dutch column inches and hours of TV airtime.

Foreign Policy magazine last year dubbed Mr Baudet and his Forum for Democracy as part of a "disease of Dutch white nationalism". Mr Baudet this week wrote a review of the work of French novelist Michel Houellebecq where he questioned whether women really want to be in “equal relationships”.

The nationalist leader has also been “flirting with Nexit” for a long time, “constantly calling Brussels the root of all evil”.


Not true. The Socialists are the big winners


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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 12:01 am 
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was just about to post that. unexpected but good stuff :thumbup:

Quote:
Netherlands, Ipsos final exit poll:

PvdA-S&D: 18% (+9)
VVD-ALDE: 15% (+3)
CDA-EPP: 12% (-2)
FvD-ECR: 11% (+11)
GL-G/EFA: 11% (+4)
CU-SGP-ECR: 8%
D66-ALDE: 6% (-9)
PVV-ENF: 4% (-9)
SP-LEFT: 4% (-6)
50+-EPP: 4% (+1)
PvdD-LEFT: 4%

+/- vs. 2014 election


still a wipeout for Wilders:

Quote:
Netherlands: Ipsos final exit poll shows record low of voter support for Geert Wilders’ right-wing PVV party (ENF/EAPN) in European elections.

2006: creation of the party
2009: 17.0%
2014: 13.3%
2019: 4.1%


also highest turnout for European elections in the Netherlands since 1989:

Quote:
Netherlands, electoral history:

Turnout European elections

1979: 58.1%
1984: 50.9%
1989: 47.5%
1994: 35.7%
1999: 30.0%
2004: 39.3%
2009: 36.8%
2014: 37.3%
2019: 41.2% (Ipsos final projection)


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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 3:59 am 
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The ALDE group had a pretty disastrous effort in 2014, so yeah, they're going to improve, but they're coming off a low base.


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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 4:01 am 
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camroc1 wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament


it's not quite as simple as that though is it? the types of "pro-Europe" parties sitting with the ALDE are quite different to those in the EPP and S&D

in Germany for example, the difference in policy between Merkel's CDU (which sits with the EPP) and the FDP (which sits with the ALDE) is enormous

the ALDE parties are more explicitly pro-integration, whereas the ones that sit in the EPP and S&D are supporters of the European project but are broadly happy with the status quo. so a shift from one to the other would still be a meaningful change

I think the point is that all three are basically pro EU. And will have enough seats to run parliament between them.


The EU Parliament is going to have a constitutional crisis of sorts when the EPP/PES/ALDE don't have enough votes to do Grand Coalition. Won't happen this election probably, but 2 or 3 down the road, sure.


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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 8:50 am 
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Greens with a hell of a result in Ireland

Quote:
Ireland, Europe Elects projection based on RED C exit poll:

FG-EPP: 29% (+7)
FF-ALDE: 15% (-6)
GREEN-G/EFA: 15% (+10)
SF-LEFT: 13% (-7)
I4C-LEFT: 7% (+7)
LAB-S&D: 4% (-1)
SD-S&D: 1% (+1)
S-PBP-LEFT: 1% (-1)

+/- vs. 2014 election


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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 10:57 am 
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It fricking sickens me that I have to applaud Real Ireland.


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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 11:50 am 
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That's the young vote .

Climate change is their fear while us old farts worry about Brexit


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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 11:51 am 
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AND-y wrote:
It fricking sickens me that I have to applaud Real Ireland.


It's not 6 Nations Andy. There is no Wales Ireland rivalry outside rugby


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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 11:53 am 
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That I4C party is Clare Daly and Mick Wallace. Far lefties. They're taking 1st pref votes from Sinn Fein but will transfer to them


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 5:22 pm 
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iarmhiman wrote:
That I4C party is Clare Daly and Mick Wallace. Far lefties. They're taking 1st pref votes from Sinn Fein but will transfer to them


Current view is that Daly & Wallace will outlast SF so they won't be transferring to them. Daly will probably get the 4th Dublin seat and Wallace is scrapping for the last seat in the South.

Mat Carthy is also in some bother, SF might draw a blank.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 5:29 pm 
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For those not Irish Mick and Clare have been ridin for years only pretend they are not. It would make for a decent series of sketches


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 6:23 pm 
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EverReady wrote:
For those not Irish Mick and Clare have been ridin for years only pretend they are not. It would make for a decent series of sketches

Also both are leftie out of fashion rather than conviction.

He's a bankrupt medium sized builder/property developer; and she's the daughter of a Colonel in the Irish Army whose extreme anti militarism hints at serious "Daddy" issues.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 6:25 pm 
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camroc1 wrote:
EverReady wrote:
For those not Irish Mick and Clare have been ridin for years only pretend they are not. It would make for a decent series of sketches

Also both are leftie out of fashion rather than conviction.

He's a bankrupt medium sized builder/property developer; and she's the daughter of a Colonel in the Irish Army whose extreme anti militarism hints at serious "Daddy" issues.


They are going to paint Brussels red. There won't be a gin joint in town whose profits won't be up


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 6:27 pm 
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iarmhiman wrote:
AND-y wrote:
It fricking sickens me that I have to applaud Real Ireland.


It's not 6 Nations Andy. There is no Wales Ireland rivalry outside rugby


Just ignore the loser.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 6:33 pm 
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Leinsterman wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
AND-y wrote:
It fricking sickens me that I have to applaud Real Ireland.


It's not 6 Nations Andy. There is no Wales Ireland rivalry outside rugby


Just ignore the loser.

Tbh as far as the 6n are concerned he would be a winner.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 6:39 pm 
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Bully for him. I'm sure that makes up for all his other issues.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 8:55 pm 
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Le Pen has declared victory in the French elections - exit poll has her on 23% vs Macron at 21%


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 9:02 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
Le Pen has declared victory in the French elections - exit poll has her on 23% vs Macron at 21%

That's 44% of the electorate.

How did the other 56% vote - pro or anti-EU ?


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 9:03 pm 
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camroc1 wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
Le Pen has declared victory in the French elections - exit poll has her on 23% vs Macron at 21%

That's 44% of the electorate.

How did the other 56% vote - pro or anti-EU ?



Suddenly that’s important.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 9:47 pm 
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Who do national rally sit with in EU parliament?

Macron's En Marche sit with ALDE.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 9:49 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
Le Pen has declared victory in the French elections - exit poll has her on 23% vs Macron at 21%

That's 44% of the electorate.

How did the other 56% vote - pro or anti-EU ?



Suddenly that’s important.

No, it's always important.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 9:59 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament


it's not quite as simple as that though is it? the types of "pro-Europe" parties sitting with the ALDE are quite different to those in the EPP and S&D

in Germany for example, the difference in policy between Merkel's CDU (which sits with the EPP) and the FDP (which sits with the ALDE) is enormous

the ALDE parties are more explicitly pro-integration, whereas the ones that sit in the EPP and S&D are supporters of the European project but are broadly happy with the status quo. so a shift from one to the other would still be a meaningful change



Fianna Fáil are in ALDE and are probably ideologically closer to the CDU/CSU than Fine Gael are so I wouldn't necessarily put a huge amount of store in that.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 10:22 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
Le Pen has declared victory in the French elections - exit poll has her on 23% vs Macron at 21%

That's 44% of the electorate.

How did the other 56% vote - pro or anti-EU ?



Suddenly that’s important.


:lol:


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 10:56 pm 
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Interesting that Manfred Weber is spoken of as a big loser tonight. He had a terrible election in Germany and may have lost his shot at replacing Juncker. With Macron also weakened they are talking about Barnier as a viable candidate for president of the commission.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 10:58 pm 
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lilyw wrote:
Interesting that Manfred Weber is spoken of as a big loser tonight. He had a terrible election in Germany and may have lost his shot at replacing Juncker. With Macron also weakened they are talking about Barnier as a viable candidate for president of the commission.


That would be brilliant


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