Planet Rugby Forum

Ring-wing PVV (ENF group in the EU Parliament) has been the major eurosceptic force in the Netherlands since the party was founded in 2006 and is currently in the European Parliament with four representatives. However, our projection currently sees them taking only one of the 26 Dutch seats in the EU Parliament (MEPs) in this election. The culprit for electoral loss is a new party right of the centre.

The national-conservative newcomer FvD (ECR Group in the EU Parliament) shocked the Dutch political field during the provincial election in April this year as they became the largest force with 14.5% of the votes. They gained a lot of seats from the PVV (ENF) in the regional elections and are expected to do the same during the European election. The party is projected to gain 5 MEPs – but it remains unclear how many voters of the largely eurosceptic electorate will turn out to vote.

The liberal party VVD (ALDE Group in the EU Parliament) became the biggest party in the last three general elections in the Netherlands but has never managed to win a European election until now. That could change this Thursday – the party of Prime Minister Mark Rutte is currently at five seats (+2) in our latest projection. Their coalition partner and fellow liberal party D66 (ALDE) received most votes during the last European election with four seats but, according to our latest projection, they will lose two of their current seats and enter the European Parliament with two representatives this time.

openclashXX wrote: but the big story is really going to be rise of the Eurosceptic groupings

openclashXX wrote:the big news from Day 1 - Geert Wilders' PVV is facing a wipeout in Dutch voting

Mr Baudet, a 36-year-old political novice, has usurped Geert Wilders as the Netherlands’ most brash, extreme-right Eurosceptic whose tweets, speeches and Instagram posts fill plenty of Dutch column inches and hours of TV airtime.

Foreign Policy magazine last year dubbed Mr Baudet and his Forum for Democracy as part of a "disease of Dutch white nationalism". Mr Baudet this week wrote a review of the work of French novelist Michel Houellebecq where he questioned whether women really want to be in “equal relationships”.

The nationalist leader has also been “flirting with Nexit” for a long time, “constantly calling Brussels the root of all evil”.

easyray wrote:Your 2nd post contradicts your first:

openclashXX wrote: but the big story is really going to be rise of the Eurosceptic groupings

openclashXX wrote:the big news from Day 1 - Geert Wilders' PVV is facing a wipeout in Dutch voting

iarmhiman wrote:So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament

iarmhiman wrote:So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament

iarmhiman wrote:Correct but as the eurosceptic parties increase in numbers threatening the pro EU majority, that's where the pro EU parties will form a coalition to ward off that threat

iarmhiman wrote:Correct but as the eurosceptic parties increase in numbers threatening the pro EU majority, that's where the pro EU parties will form a coalition to ward off that threat

openclashXX wrote:

iarmhiman wrote:So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament

it's not quite as simple as that though is it? the types of "pro-Europe" parties sitting with the ALDE are quite different to those in the EPP and S&D

in Germany for example, the difference in policy between Merkel's CDU (which sits with the EPP) and the FDP (which sits with the ALDE) is enormous

the ALDE parties are more explicitly pro-integration, whereas the ones that sit in the EPP and S&D are supporters of the European project but are broadly happy with the status quo. so a shift from one to the other would still be a meaningful change

camroc1 wrote:

openclashXX wrote:

iarmhiman wrote:So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament

it's not quite as simple as that though is it? the types of "pro-Europe" parties sitting with the ALDE are quite different to those in the EPP and S&D

in Germany for example, the difference in policy between Merkel's CDU (which sits with the EPP) and the FDP (which sits with the ALDE) is enormous

the ALDE parties are more explicitly pro-integration, whereas the ones that sit in the EPP and S&D are supporters of the European project but are broadly happy with the status quo. so a shift from one to the other would still be a meaningful change

I think the point is that all three are basically pro EU. And will have enough seats to run parliament between them.

easyray wrote:Your 2nd post contradicts your first:

openclashXX wrote: but the big story is really going to be rise of the Eurosceptic groupings

openclashXX wrote:the big news from Day 1 - Geert Wilders' PVV is facing a wipeout in Dutch voting

openclashXX wrote:not if you see which party is going to replace them:

Mr Baudet, a 36-year-old political novice, has usurped Geert Wilders as the Netherlands’ most brash, extreme-right Eurosceptic whose tweets, speeches and Instagram posts fill plenty of Dutch column inches and hours of TV airtime.

Foreign Policy magazine last year dubbed Mr Baudet and his Forum for Democracy as part of a "disease of Dutch white nationalism". Mr Baudet this week wrote a review of the work of French novelist Michel Houellebecq where he questioned whether women really want to be in “equal relationships”.

The nationalist leader has also been “flirting with Nexit” for a long time, “constantly calling Brussels the root of all evil”.

Netherlands, Ipsos final exit poll:

PvdA-S&D: 18% (+9)
VVD-ALDE: 15% (+3)
CDA-EPP: 12% (-2)
FvD-ECR: 11% (+11)
GL-G/EFA: 11% (+4)
CU-SGP-ECR: 8%
D66-ALDE: 6% (-9)
PVV-ENF: 4% (-9)
SP-LEFT: 4% (-6)
50+-EPP: 4% (+1)
PvdD-LEFT: 4%

+/- vs. 2014 election

Netherlands: Ipsos final exit poll shows record low of voter support for Geert Wilders’ right-wing PVV party (ENF/EAPN) in European elections.

2006: creation of the party
2009: 17.0%
2014: 13.3%
2019: 4.1%

Netherlands, electoral history:

Turnout European elections

1979: 58.1%
1984: 50.9%
1989: 47.5%
1994: 35.7%
1999: 30.0%
2004: 39.3%
2009: 36.8%
2014: 37.3%
2019: 41.2% (Ipsos final projection)

camroc1 wrote:

openclashXX wrote:

iarmhiman wrote:So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament

it's not quite as simple as that though is it? the types of "pro-Europe" parties sitting with the ALDE are quite different to those in the EPP and S&D

in Germany for example, the difference in policy between Merkel's CDU (which sits with the EPP) and the FDP (which sits with the ALDE) is enormous

the ALDE parties are more explicitly pro-integration, whereas the ones that sit in the EPP and S&D are supporters of the European project but are broadly happy with the status quo. so a shift from one to the other would still be a meaningful change

I think the point is that all three are basically pro EU. And will have enough seats to run parliament between them.

Ireland, Europe Elects projection based on RED C exit poll:

FG-EPP: 29% (+7)
FF-ALDE: 15% (-6)
GREEN-G/EFA: 15% (+10)
SF-LEFT: 13% (-7)
I4C-LEFT: 7% (+7)
LAB-S&D: 4% (-1)
SD-S&D: 1% (+1)
S-PBP-LEFT: 1% (-1)

+/- vs. 2014 election

AND-y wrote:It fricking sickens me that I have to applaud Real Ireland.

iarmhiman wrote:That I4C party is Clare Daly and Mick Wallace. Far lefties. They're taking 1st pref votes from Sinn Fein but will transfer to them

EverReady wrote:For those not Irish Mick and Clare have been ridin for years only pretend they are not. It would make for a decent series of sketches

iarmhiman wrote:

AND-y wrote:It fricking sickens me that I have to applaud Real Ireland.

It's not 6 Nations Andy. There is no Wales Ireland rivalry outside rugby

openclashXX wrote:Le Pen has declared victory in the French elections - exit poll has her on 23% vs Macron at 21%

camroc1 wrote:

openclashXX wrote:Le Pen has declared victory in the French elections - exit poll has her on 23% vs Macron at 21%

That's 44% of the electorate.

How did the other 56% vote - pro or anti-EU ?

bimboman wrote:

camroc1 wrote:

openclashXX wrote:Le Pen has declared victory in the French elections - exit poll has her on 23% vs Macron at 21%

That's 44% of the electorate.

How did the other 56% vote - pro or anti-EU ?

Suddenly that’s important.

openclashXX wrote:

iarmhiman wrote:So the grand coalition consists of EPP and S&D.

If the Eurosceptics take a lot of seats the ALDE will join the grand coalition ensuring the dominance of the pro EU in parliament

it's not quite as simple as that though is it? the types of "pro-Europe" parties sitting with the ALDE are quite different to those in the EPP and S&D

in Germany for example, the difference in policy between Merkel's CDU (which sits with the EPP) and the FDP (which sits with the ALDE) is enormous

the ALDE parties are more explicitly pro-integration, whereas the ones that sit in the EPP and S&D are supporters of the European project but are broadly happy with the status quo. so a shift from one to the other would still be a meaningful change

lilyw wrote:Interesting that Manfred Weber is spoken of as a big loser tonight. He had a terrible election in Germany and may have lost his shot at replacing Juncker. With Macron also weakened they are talking about Barnier as a viable candidate for president of the commission.

lilyw wrote:Interesting that Manfred Weber is spoken of as a big loser tonight. He had a terrible election in Germany and may have lost his shot at replacing Juncker. With Macron also weakened they are talking about Barnier as a viable candidate for president of the commission.

lilyw wrote:Interesting that Manfred Weber is spoken of as a big loser tonight. He had a terrible election in Germany and may have lost his shot at replacing Juncker. With Macron also weakened they are talking about Barnier as a viable candidate for president of the commission.

Hellraiser wrote:

lilyw wrote:Interesting that Manfred Weber is spoken of as a big loser tonight. He had a terrible election in Germany and may have lost his shot at replacing Juncker. With Macron also weakened they are talking about Barnier as a viable candidate for president of the commission.

The Brits would love that!