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 Post subject: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 7:14 am 
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Name your top 8.

Looking at the games to come, I reckon we will see the following.

1. Crusaders
2. Jaguares to take SA Conference
3. Brumbies to take Oz Conference
4. Hurricanes
5. Rebels
6. Sharks
7. Highlanders, (Last 2 home games against SA opposition who tend not to travel well)
8. (Here is the controversy) The Blues. They have the Bulls at Home, and the Reds away. This leaves a match up against the Canes in the last round, which in all probability, will have no bearing on the Hurricanes place in the log, and may be an opportunity to rest players before the finals, especially with the Crusaders having a bye in the final round.


Last edited by kiwidutchie on Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 7:21 am 
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Quote:
Crusaders53
Jaguares36
Brumbies34
Hurricanes40
Rebels33
Sharks33
Bulls32
Lions30


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 7:41 am 
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kiwidutchie wrote:
Name your top 8.

Looking at the games to come, I reckon we will see the following.

1. Crusaders
2. Jaguares to take SA Conference
3. Brumbies to take Oz Conference
4. Hurricanes
5. Rebels
6. Sharks
7. Highlanders, (Last 2 home games against SA opposition who tend not to travel well)
8. (Here is the controversy) The Blues. They have the Bulls at Home, and the Reds away. This leaves a match up against the Canes in the last round, which in all probability, will have no bearing on the Hurricanes place in the log, and may be an opportunity to rest players before the finals, especially with the Crusaders having a bye in the final round.


Highlanders might still make the play-offs but the Blues have a lot to do given they are currently 13th. I think only two Kiwi teams will make the play-offs


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 8:01 am 
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Jensrsa wrote:
kiwidutchie wrote:
Name your top 8.

Looking at the games to come, I reckon we will see the following.

1. Crusaders
2. Jaguares to take SA Conference
3. Brumbies to take Oz Conference
4. Hurricanes
5. Rebels
6. Sharks
7. Highlanders, (Last 2 home games against SA opposition who tend not to travel well)
8. (Here is the controversy) The Blues. They have the Bulls at Home, and the Reds away. This leaves a match up against the Canes in the last round, which in all probability, will have no bearing on the Hurricanes place in the log, and may be an opportunity to rest players before the finals, especially with the Crusaders having a bye in the final round.


Highlanders might still make the play-offs but the Blues have a lot to do given they are currently 13th. I think only two Kiwi teams will make the play-offs


Only 7 points are separating 5th and 13th at the moment, and there's still a bit of rugby to be played. The Highlanders have their last few games at home, and the Blues should be able to beat the Reds. The game between the Bulls and the Blues should be pivotal, especially if the Highlanders beat the Bulls this week.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 8:18 am 
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kiwidutchie wrote:
Jensrsa wrote:
kiwidutchie wrote:
Name your top 8.

Looking at the games to come, I reckon we will see the following.

1. Crusaders
2. Jaguares to take SA Conference
3. Brumbies to take Oz Conference
4. Hurricanes
5. Rebels
6. Sharks
7. Highlanders, (Last 2 home games against SA opposition who tend not to travel well)
8. (Here is the controversy) The Blues. They have the Bulls at Home, and the Reds away. This leaves a match up against the Canes in the last round, which in all probability, will have no bearing on the Hurricanes place in the log, and may be an opportunity to rest players before the finals, especially with the Crusaders having a bye in the final round.


Highlanders might still make the play-offs but the Blues have a lot to do given they are currently 13th. I think only two Kiwi teams will make the play-offs


Only 7 points are separating 5th and 13th at the moment, and there's still a bit of rugby to be played. The Highlanders have their last few games at home, and the Blues should be able to beat the Reds. The game between the Bulls and the Blues should be pivotal, especially if the Highlanders beat the Bulls this week.

Highlanders and Chiefs only have two games left, the rest of the teams 5 to 13 have 3 games making it tough for the Clan to make up points.

Anything is possible

4 (6) Brumbies (34) - Sunwolves (A), Tahs (A), Reds (H) - Three winnable games

5 (9) Rebels (33) - Tahs (H), Saders (A), Chiefs (H) - Two winnable games at home

6 (7) Sharks (33) - Canes (H), Jaguares (A), Stormers (A) - Three tough games

7 (3) Bulls (32) - Blues (A), Landers (A), Lions (H) - Three tough games given their recent form

8 (5) Lions (30) - Stormers (H), Canes (H), Bulls (A) - Three tough games given their recent form

9 (12) Stormers (30) - Lions (A), Sunwolves (H), Sharks (H) - one easy game and two winnable games

10 (8) Landers (29) - Bye, Bulls (H), Tahs (H) - Two winnable games

11 (14) Chiefs (27) - Saders (H - Suva), Bye, Rebels (A) - One winnable game

12 (10) Tahs (26) - Rebels (A), Brumbies (H), Landers (A) - Three winnable games but probably won't

13 (11) Blues (26) - Bulls (H), Reds (A), Canes (A) - Two winnable games


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 8:21 am 
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If blues can win their next two I’d back them to beat Canes in Welly in the last round. Canes will be in SA the previous week and as mentioned resting players may be a higher priority as they will likely be locked in at 4th no matter what result


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 9:27 am 
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swc wrote:
If blues can win their next two I’d back them to beat Canes in Welly in the last round. Canes will be in SA the previous week and as mentioned resting players may be a higher priority as they will likely be locked in at 4th no matter what result


If that happens, the Blues may even end up in 7th spot, and off to Buenos Aires for the quarters, especially if the Highlanders win their last 2.

The Clan would play the Saders.


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 9:20 pm 
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I'll have a stab at this

Crusaders
Jaguares
Brumbies
Hurricanes
Sharks
Rebels
Stormers
Highlanders/Blues* - Depending on what happens in the Blues v Canes game


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 10:53 pm 
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Best possible Chiefs/NZ outcome table… my view at the end / points updated (no bonus anything)
RANK TEAM PTS
1 CRUSADERS 57 – Chiefs (A), Rebels (H) - LW
2 JAGUARES 48 – Reds (A), Sharks (H), Sun (H) - WWW
3 BRUMBIES 46 - Sunwolves (A), Tahs (A), Reds (H) – WWW
4 HURRICANES 52 – Sharks (A), Lions (A), Blues (H) - WWW
5 REBELS 37 - Tahs (H), Saders (A), Chiefs (H) – WLL
6 SHARKS 37 - Canes (H), Jaguares (A), Stormers (A) LLW
7 BULLS 32 - Blues (A), Landers (A), Lions (H) LLL
8 LIONS 38 - Stormers (H), Canes (H), Bulls (A) WLW
9 STORMERS 34 - Lions (A), Sunwolves (H), Sharks (H) LWL
10 HIGHLANDERS 37 - Bye, Bulls (H), Tahs (H) WW
11 CHIEFS 35 - Saders (H - Suva), Bye, Rebels (A) WW
12 WARATAHS 26 - Rebels (A), Brumbies (H), Landers (A) - LLL
13 BLUES 34 - Bulls (H), Reds (A), Canes (A) - WWL
14 REDS 24 – Jags (H), Blues (H), Brum (A) - LLL
15 SUNWOLVES 12 – Brumbies (H), Storm (A), JAGs (A) - LLL

Which gives final ranking of:
1 CRUSADERS 57
2 JAGUARES 48
3 BRUMBIES 46
4 HURRICANES 52
5 LIONS 38
6 REBELS 37
7 SHARKS 37
8 HIGHLANDERS 37
9 CHIEFS 35
10 STORMERS 34
11 BLUES 34
12 BULLS 32
13 WARATAHS 26
14 REDS 24
15 SUNWOLVES 12

Tournament Format
QF 1: 1 v 8
QF 2: 4 v 5
QF 3: 2 v 7
QF 4: 3 v 6

Semi-final Draw:
SF 1: Winner QF 1 v Winner QF 2
SF 2: Winner QF 3 v Winner QF 4

Final:
Winner SF1 v Winner SF2

So for me:
QF1 - Saders vs. Landers - winner Saders
QF2 - Canes vs. Lions - winner Canes
QF3 - Jags vs. Sharks - winner JAGs
QF 4 - Brums vs. Rebels - Winner Rebels
(Liking the local element)

SF1 - Saders vs. Canes - winner Saders
SF2 - Jags vs. Rebels - Winner Jags

Final - Saders vs. JAGs - winner Saders... (not sure why we needed the finals to know that..)


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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 10:54 pm 
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JPNZ wrote:
I'll have a stab at this

Crusaders
Jaguares
Brumbies
Hurricanes
Sharks
Rebels
Stormers
Highlanders/Blues* - Depending on what happens in the Blues v Canes game

No way Stormers will make it. :(


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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 2:19 am 
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Sandstorm wrote:
JPNZ wrote:
I'll have a stab at this

Crusaders
Jaguares
Brumbies
Hurricanes
Sharks
Rebels
Stormers
Highlanders/Blues* - Depending on what happens in the Blues v Canes game

No way Stormers will make it. :(


If they beat the Lions this week they will..


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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 2:22 am 
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kiwigreg369 wrote:

Final - Saders vs. JAGs - winner Saders... (not sure why we needed the finals to know that..)


:thumbup:


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:18 pm 
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So, After the weekend, and with games to come, I think we will see the following.

1. Crusaders
2. Jags
3. Brumbies
4. Canes
5. Stormers
6. Lions
7. Highlanders
8. Either Bulls or Chiefs. Bulls have a better points differential, if either team manages to snag a winning bonus point, or the Bulls have a close loss, this will make the difference, so I would probably opt for the Bulls in this one. That last bombed try from the Chiefs last night may well come back to bite them.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:53 am 
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Its ridiculous that the Bulls can still qualify. We lost half our games i think!
And if we have to go to NZ for a playoff, we'll lose so whats the point of this shite system


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:07 am 
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We have been telling you that every year since it started Cartman


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:07 am 
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Cartman wrote:
Its ridiculous that the Bulls can still qualify. We lost half our games i think!
And if we have to go to NZ for a playoff, we'll lose so whats the point of this shite system


Frequent Flyer points?


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:21 am 
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Technically if the Sadists lose badly against the Rebels without a bonus point in their last game at home and the Canes miraculously take bonus points wins against the Lions and Blues.

Canes could top the table overall.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:24 am 
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Couch wrote:
Technically if the Sadists lose badly against the Rebels without a bonus point in their last game at home and the Canes miraculously take bonus points wins against the Lions and Blues.

Canes could top the table overall.


Wrong, The Canes would only need one BP.

:D


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 7:22 am 
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JPNZ wrote:
Couch wrote:
Technically if the Sadists lose badly against the Rebels without a bonus point in their last game at home and the Canes miraculously take bonus points wins against the Lions and Blues.

Canes could top the table overall.


Wrong, The Canes would only need one BP.

:D


No. Canes are 9 points back.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 7:26 am 
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kiwidutchie wrote:
JPNZ wrote:
Couch wrote:
Technically if the Sadists lose badly against the Rebels without a bonus point in their last game at home and the Canes miraculously take bonus points wins against the Lions and Blues.

Canes could top the table overall.


Wrong, The Canes would only need one BP.

:D


No. Canes are 9 points back.

If the Saders lose without a BP the Canes only need 9 points as they will then have more wins than the Saders


Last edited by Jensrsa on Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:14 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 8:22 am 
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kiwidutchie wrote:
JPNZ wrote:
Couch wrote:
Technically if the Sadists lose badly against the Rebels without a bonus point in their last game at home and the Canes miraculously take bonus points wins against the Lions and Blues.

Canes could top the table overall.


Wrong, The Canes would only need one BP.

:D


No. Canes are 9 points back.


May pay to read the tie break rules.

Thanks Jens as above


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:35 am 
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Sandstorm wrote:
JPNZ wrote:
I'll have a stab at this

Crusaders
Jaguares
Brumbies
Hurricanes
Sharks
Rebels
Stormers
Highlanders/Blues* - Depending on what happens in the Blues v Canes game

No way Stormers will make it. :(

Told you


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:09 am 
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Expect some trashings in the playoffs.

I expect the sadists would rather face the bulls instead of the chiefs.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:29 pm 
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One week left, and things are still up in the air.

Crusaders will be top with 58

Jags 2nd with a home game v the Sunwolves to come. Expect them to finish on 51 points

brumbies with the Reds at home will have no bearing on the final result. They will top the OZ conference, probably with 48 points.

Canes have 4th sewn up and should rest players wherever possible.

Bulls have the Lions at home. Here’s where things get interesting. The winner of this game will go through, if the Lions win, and the Bulls get a BP, both will go through. If the Bulls get no points, then they will be sweating on other results. A Draw will see both teams through.

Similar with the Stormers and Sharks, a win will see either side through, although a Draw will have both teams sweating, and a loss will knock that team out.

The Rebels have the Chiefs. Now if the Chiefs win, with a BP, they will be on 36 points, and probably squeak in 8th.

The Highlanders may also end the same number of points, but with fewer wins.

Given travel for some of the SA teams, I would expect the lions and Stormers to win. So our semi finalists will be

Crusaders
Jaguares
Brumbies
Hurricanes
Lions
Stormers
Bulls
Chiefs.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:24 am 
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Saders Jags final yum


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:48 am 
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Points difference from 6-8
-56
-19
-21

:lol:

Ridiculous teams this shithouse are playing finals footy. Just make it top 5 FFs


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:54 am 
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swc wrote:
Points difference from 6-8
-56
-19
-21

:lol:

Ridiculous teams this shithouse are playing finals footy. Just make it top 5 FFs


Yeah, the fact that more than half the teams in the comp get to play finals Rugby is a joke. Like the ill-concieved conference system and the way the ladder works, these were revenue raising ideas that had unintended negative consequences.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:19 am 
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Anyway - in line with the thread title

Sadists
Jags
Bumboys
Hairycunnies


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:03 am 
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kiwidutchie wrote:
Name your top 8.

Looking at the games to come, I reckon we will see the following.

1. Crusaders
2. Jaguares to take SA Conference
3. Brumbies to take Oz Conference
4. Hurricanes
5. Rebels
6. Sharks
7. Highlanders, (Last 2 home games against SA opposition who tend not to travel well)
8. (Here is the controversy) The Blues. They have the Bulls at Home, and the Reds away. This leaves a match up against the Canes in the last round, which in all probability, will have no bearing on the Hurricanes place in the log, and may be an opportunity to rest players before the finals, especially with the Crusaders having a bye in the final round.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:04 am 
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Enzedder wrote:
Anyway - in line with the thread title

Sadists
Jags
Bumboys
Hairycunnies


Fixed.....


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:30 am 
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kiwidutchie wrote:
One week left, and things are still up in the air.

Crusaders will be top with 58

Jags 2nd with a home game v the Sunwolves to come. Expect them to finish on 51 points

brumbies with the Reds at home will have no bearing on the final result. They will top the OZ conference, probably with 48 points.

Canes have 4th sewn up and should rest players wherever possible.

Bulls have the Lions at home. Here’s where things get interesting. The winner of this game will go through, if the Lions win, and the Bulls get a BP, both will go through. If the Bulls get no points, then they will be sweating on other results. A Draw will see both teams through.

Similar with the Stormers and Sharks, a win will see either side through, although a Draw will have both teams sweating, and a loss will knock that team out.

The Rebels have the Chiefs. Now if the Chiefs win, with a BP, they will be on 36 points, and probably squeak in 8th.

The Highlanders may also end the same number of points, but with fewer wins.

Given travel for some of the SA teams, I would expect the lions and Stormers to win. So our semi finalists will be

Crusaders
Jaguares
Brumbies
Hurricanes
Lions
Stormers
Bulls
Chiefs.


The chiefs missing that bonus point in fiji would that have made any difference?


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 Post subject: Re: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:01 am 
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Who woulda thunk that the Chiefs have a chance to make the play offs going in to the final round? With the last 2 weeks being against the Saders and a Bye, nobody prior to then would've given them a sparrow's fart of a chance.
If the Chiefs can pull out a win against the Rebels, and the Stormers get off their asses to beat the Sharks... they're in? (Barring the Highanders getting more bonus points than the Chiefs do in their game against the Tahs)


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 Post subject: Re: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:13 am 
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Turbogoat wrote:
Who woulda thunk that the Chiefs have a chance to make the play offs going in to the final round? With the last 2 weeks being against the Saders and a Bye, nobody prior to then would've given them a sparrow's fart of a chance.
If the Chiefs can pull out a win against the Rebels, and the Stormers get off their asses to beat the Sharks... they're in? (Barring the Highanders getting more bonus points than the Chiefs do in their game against the Tahs)


It's still only a very remote possibility, but one I'll take after the Canberra Calamity earlier in the year.

Would they deserve to be there, though? If they made it they'd be like the Rebels and Stormers in having only won as many games as they'd lost this season. Having finalists with a 50% win record or less is a joke (like the Sharks last year and the Brumbies in 2017)


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 Post subject: Re: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:14 am 
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naki wrote:
Turbogoat wrote:
Who woulda thunk that the Chiefs have a chance to make the play offs going in to the final round? With the last 2 weeks being against the Saders and a Bye, nobody prior to then would've given them a sparrow's fart of a chance.
If the Chiefs can pull out a win against the Rebels, and the Stormers get off their asses to beat the Sharks... they're in? (Barring the Highanders getting more bonus points than the Chiefs do in their game against the Tahs)


It's still only a very remote possibility, but one I'll take after the Canberra Calamity earlier in the year.

Would they deserve to be there, though? If they made it they'd be like the Rebels and Stormers in having only won as many games as they'd lost this season. Having finalists with a 50% win record or less is a joke (like the Sharks last year and the Brumbies in 2017)


Lol conference system I think there has been teams with a below 50% win precentage making the NFL play offs while teams who where 9.6 missed out, due to playing in stronger conferences.


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 Post subject: Re: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:16 am 
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Harden up!!! wrote:
naki wrote:
Turbogoat wrote:
Who woulda thunk that the Chiefs have a chance to make the play offs going in to the final round? With the last 2 weeks being against the Saders and a Bye, nobody prior to then would've given them a sparrow's fart of a chance.
If the Chiefs can pull out a win against the Rebels, and the Stormers get off their asses to beat the Sharks... they're in? (Barring the Highanders getting more bonus points than the Chiefs do in their game against the Tahs)


It's still only a very remote possibility, but one I'll take after the Canberra Calamity earlier in the year.

Would they deserve to be there, though? If they made it they'd be like the Rebels and Stormers in having only won as many games as they'd lost this season. Having finalists with a 50% win record or less is a joke (like the Sharks last year and the Brumbies in 2017)


Lol conference system I think there has been teams with a below 50% win precentage making the NFL play offs while teams who where 9.6 missed out, due to playing in stronger conferences.


To be fair only the Brumbies of '17 were conference beneficiaries, the team that inevitably slips into the finals this year with a shite record will do so due to the mediocrity of the entire competition rather than the vagaries of the conference system.


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 Post subject: Re: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:19 am 
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Two months ago I wouldn't have picked the Brumbies to make the finals, and now they actually have a pretty decent shot of making it all the way to the grand final...


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 Post subject: Re: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:08 am 
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Turbogoat wrote:
Who woulda thunk that the Chiefs have a chance to make the play offs going in to the final round? With the last 2 weeks being against the Saders and a Bye, nobody prior to then would've given them a sparrow's fart of a chance.
If the Chiefs can pull out a win against the Rebels, and the Stormers get off their asses to beat the Sharks... they're in? (Barring the Highanders getting more bonus points than the Chiefs do in their game against the Tahs)

Here's hoping...


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 Post subject: Re: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:12 am 
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Stormers to finish 6th, beat the Brumbies away and make a semi final? With this many injuries, garbage 10s and a moron for a coach? Surely not??? :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:16 pm 
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https://www.superxv.com/super-rugby/super-rugby-rules/

The Highlanders can't finish above the Bulls as any tie break is decided on number of wins. The Landers can only get 6 wins whilst the Bulls have 7.

They will also finish below the winner of the Stormers and Sharks and if there is a draw they will finish below the Stormers

The Winner of the Lions Bulls game will finish above the winner of the Rebels and Chiefs game. If there is a draw (between Lions and Bulls) then both the Lions and Bulls will qualify

A minimum of 2 South African teams will qualify


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 Post subject: Re: Super Rugby Top 8
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:55 pm 
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Top 4 are nailed. Only variation would be Brumbies overcoming Jaguares if the latter fail to beat the Sunwolves (if Brumbies win without a BP and Jaguares get a losing BP, both teams will have 10 victories and the tie breaker will be points difference - which is currently 67 for Jags and 51 for Brumbies).

But permutations are still way too many to determine their rivals.

If Chiefs beat Rebels, and deny them the losing BP, they are through. If Rebels get a losing BP they stay ahead of Chiefs.
But if Chiefs win with a BP, they reach 36 points and are through without depending of other scores, and Rebels are out even with a losing BP.

Waratahs could qualify if they beat Highlanders (if they win without BP they would need the Stormers to lose without getting the losing BP). Likewise, a Highlanders victory sees them overcome the Stormers - and, with a winning BP, the Lions too -

Winners of Bulls - Lions and Stormers - Sharks are through, no matter what. Three of them - not the Sharks - could still lose and qualify, depending on other scores.

A draw in Bulls - Lions sends both teams through.

The Lions can only fail to qualify if they lose without a BP. Getting a single point makes it impossible for either the Chiefs, the Highlanders or the Waratahs to overcome them.

There's even a possible combination of results that could see the 4 SA teams qualifying. If Waratahs beat Highlanders, Chiefs beat Rebels without any kind of BP awarded in the match, and Stormers and Sharks draw, Sharks would be the 8th qualifier.

So, basically, the only match of the last round with nothing at stakes is Hurricanes - Blues...


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