Planet Rugby Forum

disclaimer: no idea how accurate this is. I guess it's based on betting odds. Unfortunately I think they have over estimated the Wallabies chance.

Pretty much inline with my pre tournament speculation though. NZ, Eng, SA and then a few outside shots in Aus, Wales and Ire.

The rest of the world combined are underdogs to one tiny rugby obsessed island.

It's a special sport (slash religion if you're a kiwi).

Let's go Wales!

Mog The Almighty wrote:The rest of the world combined are underdogs to one tiny rugby obsessed island.

It's a special sport (slash religion if you're a kiwi).

Let's go Wales!

I dont see how we are 4 times more likely than England to win the world cup.

booze wrote:

Mog The Almighty wrote:The rest of the world combined are underdogs to one tiny rugby obsessed island.

It's a special sport (slash religion if you're a kiwi).

Let's go Wales!

I dont see how we are 4 times more likely than England to win the world cup.

Compound probability. Even if you are good favorites with 70% chance of winning each game with two knock out games and the final, you'd still only have a ~33% of winning the cup. Anyone into poker knows all about it. Throw in a 50% and it gets much worse.

They have a probable meeting with England in the semi final, the final will be easier.

In any case, that's going to be some choke if they don't win it.

Can you expand on who the "one tiny rugby obsessed island" is?

I’d say any team with an imminent extra rest week is about to destroy this already dubious model

sonic_attack wrote:Can you expand on who the "one tiny rugby obsessed island" is?

They also have a 98% probability of breaking into haka anytime someone sneezes.

Clear it up?

Mog The Almighty wrote:

disclaimer: no idea how accurate this is. I guess it's based on betting odds. Unfortunately I think they have over estimated the Wallabies chance.

Pretty much inline with my pre tournament speculation though. NZ, Eng, SA and then a few outside shots in Aus, Wales and Ire.

What is the source of this statistical garbage?

Vanuatu? New Caledonia? Tahiti?

naki wrote:I’d say any team with an imminent extra rest week is about to destroy this already dubious model

I assume you mean cancelled games. Will that help or hinder development?

Mog The Almighty wrote:

sonic_attack wrote:Can you expand on who the "one tiny rugby obsessed island" is?

They also have a 98% probability of breaking into haka anytime someone sneezes.

Clear it up?

So how does "island" and "haka" relate to France?

You don't actually know wtf is going on do you.

LandOTurk wrote:

naki wrote:I’d say any team with an imminent extra rest week is about to destroy this already dubious model

I assume you mean cancelled games. Will that help or hinder development?

Are you joking?

Plato'sCave wrote:

Mog The Almighty wrote:

disclaimer: no idea how accurate this is. I guess it's based on betting odds. Unfortunately I think they have over estimated the Wallabies chance.

Pretty much inline with my pre tournament speculation though. NZ, Eng, SA and then a few outside shots in Aus, Wales and Ire.

What is the source of this statistical garbage?

Random post in the Scandinavian Rugby Facebook group. How dare you question a graph!! How dare you.

.

Mog The Almighty wrote:

Plato'sCave wrote:

Mog The Almighty wrote:

disclaimer: no idea how accurate this is. I guess it's based on betting odds. Unfortunately I think they have over estimated the Wallabies chance.

Pretty much inline with my pre tournament speculation though. NZ, Eng, SA and then a few outside shots in Aus, Wales and Ire.

What is the source of this statistical garbage?

Random post in the Scandinavian Rugby Facebook group. How dare you question a graph!! How dare you.

My mistake, please accept this data visualisation which can only therefore be met with your acquiescence