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by Xupi
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

You won't see the impact for at least 3 weeks. Median 6 days of incubation but could be up to 14 days. THen a lag between developing symptons and getting tested and IIRC they're rationing testing. We have already started seeing the (positive) impact in Italy, spread rate went from ~20% daily which ...
by Xupi
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

627 new deaths in Italy, f**king hell :uhoh: And nearly 6k new cases. 9 days after lockdown. This is what the rest of us have to look forward to. That is still 14% increase in known cases (which are people going to hospital), I think earlier in the week they were at +12%. Confinement does save live...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Exactly. All those things plus also probably also their very relaxed and casual attitude towards a lot of things. Who knows how many Italians are infected vs tested. Northern Italy is one of the richest, most industrious and organized human society on the planet / and this has been the case for cen...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

What's the survival rate for 60+ with no underlying health issues? 99 something %? I dont like those odds. Again, data we have: 50% of hospitalized patients here are under 65, a ratio which stunned all our medical staff. If intubated, those that do not have underlying health issues have a very high...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Germany? To suggest they wouldn't is to take a thousand years of national stereotypes and flush them down the shitter. Is it still feasible that there was something very horribly unique that exposed northern Italy geographically and culturally to this? Unique, certainly not. We are seeing the same ...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

The solidarity is good for now. Most people at this stage are happy enough to suck up the damage to their way of life. But a couple of months from now when large cohorts are facing lost jobs, wildly uncertain futures, and financial ruin, I'm not so sure it'll hold up quite as well. I know talking a...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

It's utterly bizarre clocking up the public figures who've caught it. You'd hope that, in a way, that it helps to impress upon people just how widespread and indiscriminate this thing is. Being well-off, well-known and well-connected is no protection. Although, I can't help noting that they all man...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

I'm very curious to see what's going to happen with the current trials of chloroquine. It's not clear-cut yet. But it does seem to be looking quite promising. Provided you can get it down people's throats earlier in their sickness rather than later. If it holds up through trials, and it can knock o...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

The age spread of their infections strongly backs the suggestion that they're simply right at the beginning of this thing, and have tested a reasonably true image of infections. Expect their death count to start rising soon. We should expect about 120 deaths in the next 15-20 days (roughly). If we ...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

That's still under 200k cases in France. 200k in a population of 67M. And lockdown should kill the spread, so you're not getting to 40M infected very quickly. 200k cases now, but don't forget the incubation period of 10-15 days, which means that during our first 2 weeks of lockdown the number of re...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Lockdown and severe suppression strategies are two different things. If you're supressing/lockdown, where are the millions infected coming from? The whole idea is that it stops people getting infected. No herd immunity. Sit and wait for a vaccine. When a country reports 10k infected, you can multip...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

If the virus is still around, then easing off will just cause another spike. No evidence yet (that I'm aware of) that warmer weather will help, other than perhaps sunlight on surfaces helping kill the virus. I know, but in any case the lockdown will not be sustainable for much longer than 2 month e...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Locking down over 70's won't be enough, half of hospitalized patients in France right now are under 65 with a lot of young people in their 30's and 40's, much more than anticipated. The vast majority of those younger people survive provided they get an ICU bed. I think no choice to lockdown to resis...
by Xupi
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir laine
Replies: 24811
Views: 1049339

Re: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir l

TheFrog wrote: Combien de lits en reanimation en France? Et quel pourcentage de ceux la utilises pour des urgences (je ne parle pas des operations que l'on peut repousser)?
Je ne me souviens plus si c'est 5,000 ou 7,000, et ne sais pas combien sont déjà occupés.
by Xupi
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir laine
Replies: 24811
Views: 1049339

Re: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir l

Ca y est les résultats sont tombés. 18% de cas détectés en plus, la courbe suit sa trajectoire normale de 20% par jour. 89 morts aujourd'hui, le record et une hausse de... 50% d'un coup! c'est terrible. La vague est là. Et le pire… 931 cas en réanimation, de loin le plus haut total mondial après la ...
by Xupi
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir laine
Replies: 24811
Views: 1049339

Re: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir l

Salut à tous, Les journées sont difficiles, mais nous avons la chance d'avoir une grande maison avec une chambre pour chacun des trois enfants, et un petit jardin pour s'aérer. Tôt le matin on coache les deux plus grands dans leur journée de cours à distance, les profs sont plutôt bons et les enfant...
by Xupi
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Good news on ventilators. Over here they have started moving patients from the sole overloaded area (Alsace) to a less impacted area (Toulon). It's the army doing the transfer, by plane. If they manage to do that and distribute the load I am confident we can maintain low death rates. In the Paris ar...
by Xupi
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Hi fellas, It looks like the sacrifices are paying off. Althought it is still too early, and we need a “consolidation” of those data in the coming days, it seems we did made the virus bend his head a little bit. It looks like the curve is going down; we’ll see what happens in the coming days. Three...
by Xupi
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:53 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir laine
Replies: 24811
Views: 1049339

Re: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir l

Je pense que 2 semaines me suffiront pas à contente le virus. Il faudrait qu'il n'y ait plus aucun foyer d'infection capable de allumeur l'incendie. Mais il suffit que le virus circule quelque part pour que cela reparte de plus belle dès que les mesures auront été relaxées. On va voir s'enchainer d...
by Xupi
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir laine
Replies: 24811
Views: 1049339

Re: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir l

Il est très tôt pour tirer des conclusions, le plus dur est devant nous et nous devons nous preparer en France à vivre des moments collectifs terribles pendant au moins 2 semaines… Les nouvelles en Italie sont encourageantes, le taux de nouveaux cas baisse franchement pour la première fois. Mais le ...
by Xupi
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

There must be more lessons to learn from the catastrophy in Italy. If you look at the number of cases in Germany and how few fatalities there have been, then comparing the two case-studies of Italy and Germany should be informative. This has to be due to the fact that Germany, a little like SK, is ...
by Xupi
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Italy figures for today (TBC, got it from a French news site). 31,506 confirmed cases (+12.6%) 2,503 death (+16%) 2,941 cured 2,060 in ICU (+11.3%) It's the slowest growth rate for known cases since the start of the epidemic in that country, therefore very encouraging. First signs that containment i...
by Xupi
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

On second thoughts, it's easy to be hard on politicians in these circumstances. They have many responsibilities. To minimise death and suffering. To protect the economy. To keep public order. It's understandable they make missteps. And it's easy for academics to send letters and Internet pundits to...
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir laine
Replies: 24811
Views: 1049339

Re: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir l

Oui par contre ils viennent de montrer des courbes comparées des villes de Lodi et Bergame en Italie, la première ayant mis en place des mesures de confinement vers le 24 février et la seconde au 8 Mars. A peu près vers le 10 Mars, alors que les cas à Bergame continuent d'exploser, la courbe des cas...
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

France is not a total confinement, they clearly want to keep business activity as much active as possible. I just saw a graph on French TV which brings a lot of hope, maybe some Italian posters can confirm. Two cities Lodi and Bergamo, the first has started applying early confinement measures on Feb...
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir laine
Replies: 24811
Views: 1049339

Re: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir l

Oui ça n'est pas un confinement total contrairement aux rumeurs. Pour l'instant en tous cas. Mais il y aura des contrôles dans les rues et il commence à parler d'armée (pour des hôpitaux de campagne dans l'Est). Le vocabulaire martial était omnipresent. Je pense qu'il cherche à donner une possibilit...
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:11 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Kids are grotty, sure, but if they're not coughing at people (and the ones that cough are isolated), then I'd rather have the workforce working, especially health workers. The health workforce issue has already been addressed. A lot of work can be done from home. A lot of work does not need to be d...
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Source? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmission.html Transmission is most common due to symptoms, more coughing, more transmission. Kids often are asymptomatic, and at least in my sons school, are handwashing and have alcohol gel. Anyone coughing, or with fever, is sent home....
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Respectfully speaking; it didn't seem to work very well in Italy and Spain? With such a long incubation period I think it's too soon to say, Italy went full lockdown 10 days ago right? But if Italian figures do not decrease in the next few days then we may see some countries abandon the containment...
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

It's not. Major form of transmission is coughing. Anyone coughing or with fever is kept home. Sending them home takes the workforce away. Or you end up with people like Torque, kindly providing them with new places to group together, likely mixing more age groups, and close to adults, which achieve...
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir laine
Replies: 24811
Views: 1049339

Re: Le top XIV la Pro D2 les Fédérales.Le retour façon mir l

Bon les gars ça pue grave, on y est jusqu'au cou !

Je propose de transformer ce fil pour échanger sur ce que nous nous apprêtons à vivre.

Le confinement total ça craint quand même...
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Boris about to address the nation. I just hope he doesn’t shut schools. That would be a big mistake, taking key health workers away as they have to look after their kids and loading other kids on vulnerable grandparents. The French compromise is to only allow kids of health workers attend schools a...
by Xupi
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

We can mitigate the damage and death provided our medical facilities and staff are not overloaded . If they are then mortality rate will sky rocket and will impact below 60's too. That should be our main driver for the weeks ahead of us. I am feverishly looking at Italian figures every evening to se...
by Xupi
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

4,000+ known cases in France right now, 91 death and around 200 people in a distressed situation, being treated. Knowing that 80% of the infected have no to mild symptoms for which they'll never get tested, the actual number of cases is probably already huge. When you start hearing about people you ...
by Xupi
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

That French lockdown sounds very sensible, particularly the party about keeping medical workers kids in school They're really focused on that, like an army on the front line that we all need to support. PM said the only reason they're keeping public transport operating (with less frequencies though...
by Xupi
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

I might have missed this in the thread, but France just closed all cafes, restaurants and non-essential services. I really hope the UK is as on top of this as you guys think it is. Yes, posted about this on last page. All shops bar food supplies and pharmacy must be closed as of tomorrow - let's se...
by Xupi
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

What strikes me most is that we in the West knew there was a serious virus outbreak in China and we did fudge all about it. Completely fudge all. We didn't even think about restricting travel from China. Darwin Award for the West of Europe. I agree, now we're at the epicenter of something that may ...
by Xupi
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

French PM on TV just announced we're locking down. All shops bar food and pharmacy closed from tomorrow onwards. All gatherings. Only people required on their work sites can go to work. Over 70 yr-old and fragile people must stay at home. He said around 50% of people being currently hospitalized are...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Close schools = NHS workers need to look after their kids/grandma looks after the kids and gets sick = less capacity in a stretched service French president in his speech alluded to some child daycare centers that will remain open solely for kids of medical workers. Not an ideal solution but if the...
by Xupi
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Rugby Forum
Topic: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans
Replies: 27475
Views: 670013

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Thanks, but won't the Japanese become infected again when someone from another country (which is in an early phase of the cycle) visits Japan, as is happening now? In other words, don't we need a ruthless global lock-down for this to work? Yes, we need to sing in tune. That is why China for instanc...