Planet Rugby Forum

Waratah

Interesting view on the shortcomings of the electoral college. The main problem with the Electoral College today is not, as both its supporters and detractors believe, the disproportionate power it gives smaller states. Those states do get a boost from their two Senate-based electoral votes, but th...

Waratah

There's an unstated suggestion of suicide in those FB tributes. Poor old Quent. RIP.

Waratah

This is slightly more interesting. Dem group warns of apparent Trump Election Day landslide. A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when...

Waratah

How very, very interesting. President Trump’s support from likely black voters is nearly twice what campaign officials believe is needed to win reelection and 15 points under the level Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden needs, according to a new survey. The latest John Zogby Strategies/EMI R...

Waratah

One of the beautiful things about the SSIC report - again, endorsed by the GOP - is its contention that a problem in proving collusion (or conspiracy) is the extent of the stupidity & incompetence by the campaign, the degree to which they knew they were being manipulated by Russian intelligence (and...

Waratah

Some fun stuff in the GOP-led Senate Intel Committee report. It finds the 2016 Trump campaign was aware of Russia's efforts to help, keen to receive it, but hampered in those efforts by their own incompetence. (Don Jr. is not specifically referred to but you know who they're talking about here.) Ne...

Waratah

I'd tend towards thinking he was doing a fairly decent job , if it wasn't for the fact that he's such a deeply unpleasant piece of shit. Excuse me? A fairly decent job? Of what? - Resetting the terms of trade for the US with its trading partners - Giving NATO, WHO and UN a bit of a touch up - Econo...

Waratah

Some fun stuff in the GOP-led Senate Intel Committee report. It finds the 2016 Trump campaign was aware of Russia's efforts to help, keen to receive it, but hampered in those efforts by their own incompetence. (Don Jr. is not specifically referred to but you know who they're talking about here.) Nev...

Waratah

shanky wrote:I'd tend towards thinking he was doing a fairly decent job, if it wasn't for the fact that he's such a deeply unpleasant piece of shit.

Excuse me? A fairly decent job? Of what?

Waratah

[quote="goeagles"][quote="Waratah"] That doesn't really alter what I said. It's overwhelmingly where the money is going, rather than additional information or 'forecasting', which affects the odds after the market is set. The odds set don't correspond to implied probability because bookmakers don't...

Waratah

As always, the best place to look for realistic forecasting is the betting markets. Once the original market's set there's not a lot of forecasting involved, merely adjusting odds according to where the money's going. It only reflects what punters think will happen, the vast majority of whom have n...

Waratah

On Harris, a very happy coincidence for Biden that the easiest decision was the best one. He's spoken of being transitional, said one of his major considerations in a VP was someone who was ready to be president. Reason to think this represents a simple reading of the room from Biden. A one term opp...

Waratah

As always, the best place to look for realistic forecasting is the betting markets. Once the original market's set there's not a lot of forecasting involved, merely adjusting odds according to where the money's going. It only reflects what punters think will happen, the vast majority of whom have n...

Waratah

At that point Jones, they better still have their guns. If it was willing to fight its own, the armed militia would be mincemeat in the face of the US armed forces. A terrorist type insurrection would be the only way they could have any decent impact, but then the US would never recover from that. ...

Waratah

Santa wrote:I thought Trump won the Swan interview actually.

Waratah

Did anybody see the Trump interview with Jonathon Swan, holy shit, you ignore deaths from Covid now, that’s not important, the USA is better than the world. It was glorious for so many reasons. Some excerpts: Trump: “You know, there are those that say you can test too much. You do know that.” Swan:...

Waratah

And there we have it... Trump calls for a delay due to Covid, knowing full well the Constitution has no mechanism for such a delay (a material delay that is, past 20th Jan. And if that happens, we're onto Tahs 12th Amendment thing.) So then he ramps up the rhetoric on mail-in voting. The next step ...

Waratah

The simplest answer is he didn't want to be a world infamous pedo in prison after living the life he did, saw no hope and ended it. That's it. There's no grand conspiracy. The first part is undeniably true. That is the simplest answer. I'm a fan of the Ockham's razor principle, that removing all un...

Waratah

I'm thinking that Trumps tweet yesterday about the Suburban Lifestyle Dream could be a huge tweet and the topic could be one of the key election issues. If he hammers that he could get some real traction. It's certainly more significant than some old nonsense about delaying elections, which he actu...

Waratah

More people who identified as Democrat voted for Trump than people who identified as Republican voted for Clinton. And surveys of peoples attitudes showed that more people thought that Trump was unsuited to be president than they did Clinton, but more of the people who thought that he was unsuited ...

Waratah

There's probably someone who knows a hell of a lot more than me about consitutional law, but I saw something a while back saying that even if the election was delayed, Trump and Pence's terms come to an end regardless and a president is appointed by congress. Anyone know if that's right? 12th Amend...

Waratah

Santa wrote:Trump has no power to delay the election you fucktards.

We know that. It's Trump who doesn't. But everyone is a fucktard but him?

You really are a cretin.

Waratah

Emperor Trump today brought 12,000 troops back from Germany. Perhaps they’re here to ‘enforce’ the 12th Amendment Speaking of troops & amendments, you gotta be amused at the behaviour of the dedicated 2A nutters who are all about the need to protect themselves from govt tyranny. Bunch of overweight...

Waratah

It's more than passing strange the visible decline in Trump's physical & mental condition isn't getting more mainstream press attention. His issues with the ramp & water bottle at the West Point graduation got a bit of coverage for a day or two but that was about it. Remember in 2016 when HRC had a...

Waratah

When is the last time Trump produced a meaningful sentence unscripted in real time? His TV interviews are a crash course in word salad. The man used to be reasonably articulate. Biden's the same. You don't need to be a psychiatrist to see when someone's in serious mental decline. Biden & Trump aren...

Waratah

It's more than passing strange the visible decline in Trump's physical & mental condition isn't getting more mainstream press attention. His issues with the ramp & water bottle at the West Point graduation got a bit of coverage for a day or two but that was about it. Remember in 2016 when HRC had a...

Waratah

It's more than passing strange the visible decline in Trump's physical & mental condition isn't getting more mainstream press attention. His issues with the ramp & water bottle at the West Point graduation got a bit of coverage for a day or two but that was about it. Remember in 2016 when HRC had a ...

Waratah

seriously, though, isn't it just as unkind to insult people for being thick? it's hardly their fault if they're genuinely afflicted. all insults are far revealing about the user (and their insecurities) than the recipient. If I call you thick it's only a slur on you. If I call you retarded then it'...

Waratah

Remember that trump bragged that he could end Chicago violence in a short time. He could. So could sharia law. For me I am soooo bored of this racism stuff all the time. If I could directly address my conservative leaders it would be to say, "sort this shit out would you, ffs". Somehow or other the...

Waratah

What’s the latest on Biden’s choice as a running mate? The Democratic Convention is set for August 17th and I presume he will announce it then, but there must be some rumours. Kamala Harris seems to be frontrunner. There's also Tammy Duckworth. Stacey Abrams. Stacey Abrams? What has she done other ...

Waratah

LinkedIn now joining the fun. Removing posts critical of the CCP or pro Uigur and removing outspoken black conservatives who criticise BLM . Really? That seems strange. Who has been removed? What did they say? Just two African American businessmen on my network who are outspoken on BLM and using fa...

Waratah

How the Republican Party opened itself up to the Trump takeover Consider "It Was All A Lie," the forthcoming book by disillusioned Republican ad-maker Stuart Stevens. He casts Trump as not an aberration but rather the culmination of decades-long evolution within the GOP. Having advised four Republi...

Waratah

To be any kind of regular super villain he would have had to have stuff ready to release upon his death cuz he didn't that's just poor villianing. He certainly had the 'stuff'. Whether it was intended for release, rather than potential blackmail or just insurance is another matter. Federal agents w...

Waratah

The simplest answer is he didn't want to be a world infamous pedo in prison after living the life he did, saw no hope and ended it. That's it. There's no grand conspiracy. Yeah and the cameras just happened to be turned off. And his cell mate just happened to be moved. And they just happened to tak...

Waratah

What would Mossad gain from that? Blackmail leverage on a few senators (and ok, a president or 2)? It just seems to me the CIA or MI5 or some other similar agency would suss them out sooner or later. All those agencies are interlinked. On the one hand they're all ostensibly on the same side. On the...

Waratah

The simplest answer is he didn't want to be a world infamous pedo in prison after living the life he did, saw no hope and ended it. That's it. There's no grand conspiracy. The first part is undeniably true. That is the simplest answer. I'm a fan of the Ockham's razor principle, that removing all un...

Waratah

Just finished reading Mary Trump's book. Nothing especially revelatory. We already know who Trump is, the book just gives greater background to why, a first hand account of an extraordinarily dysfunctional family. Many of us have already wondered why someone with so much to lose from a forensic scru...

Waratah

Polls are fake Tongue in cheek as I imagine this is, it's nevertheless worth pointing out again that despite the fashion for claiming the polls got it completely wrong in 2016, they actually got it right, well within the margin of error. The average of the final 13 major national polls before the l...

Waratah

Santa wrote:And the Russiagate hoax. That's one of the biggest of them all.

Anyone who thinks 'Russiagate' is a hoax is either an idiot or is not arguing in good faith. The jury is out in your case.

Waratah

George Monbiot - the oligarchs have developed a seeecret formula for brain washing. It's not a secret formula, it's transparently simple, which is why it's so effective, and is being copied by plenty of groups who were once on the far fringes but are finding a much larger voice online due to the ea...

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