UK's early Covid response worst health failure ever

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Ted.
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Re: UK's early Covid response worst health failure ever

Post by Ted. »

message #2527204 wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:07 am
Ted. wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:55 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:45 am
Ted. wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:00 pm
When did UK lock down? How stringent was it?

NZ introduced isolation for people entering the country on March 14, then closed the borders on the 20th. On the 21st we had out first lockdown, which was at our level 2. The government then ups it to level 3 on the 23rd and announces going to level 4 on the 25th, which duly happens. We haven't been out of some form of restriction since, though in between times it's been pretty much business as usual apart from the international borders being more or less shut.

Our infection rates and deaths have been low. Our economy has done remarkably well. Yet, if we hadn't shut down as tight as we did, given the parlous state of our ICU, etc, we would have been utterly f**ked.

However, we can only prop up the economy for so long without increasing interaction locally and internally. When we do open up, the shit will surely hit the fan, we're kidding ourselves if we think it won't be bad and as one of our pollies quipped, it will be "Covid for Christmas". Hopefully our shit is relatively easy to clean off the fan and doesn't pong as much as yours, i.e. I'm not sure why you would think ours is nauseating given the odiferous pong you lot have been producing :P
But again, that was in March 2020. You are patting yourselves on the back but the reality is that you didn't change course until mid March, way after the period we are talking about. I recall that NZ's pubs were open on St Patrick's Day for example, but closed here. The decision to go the way NZ did and repudiate the WHO was brave, but by the time you made that decision, it was game over in Europe. The UK went for hard lockdown on the exact same date as NZ did.

The genomic sequencing shows that most of Asia and NZ/Aus had little to no of the 614G variant which is suspected of causing the explosion in cases over the course of February. 91% of cases in Italy in February had it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/worl ... ation.html

That is the real story on how NZ and Australia managed a very soft first wave. It's funny how it is rarely discussed whilst now other variants are, it doesn't suit some agendas.
We weren't patting ourselves ion the back, well some people might have been, but that is your view in hindsight regardless.

Anyway, we didn't need to lock down earlier, why would we? Surely it's more relevant why and how, not when. However, as pointed out above, when we did go, we went relatively hard and it worked.

It actually bloody worked! Something that you seem to be ignoring for some reason. Why is that?

We had little to no of the variant you say was so deadly in Europe or the UK. Which was it, little or no, and why so little if it was so virulent, surely it would supplant the less virulent strains as delta has?

Do you think, perhaps, that was because your so called "hard lockdowns" weren't so hard as you think. That arrogantly failing to control your borders, in particular, lead to the explosion of the more virulent strains when closing our borders prevented exactly that.

Let's apply some reasoning to this. Hmm!
Preventing UK citzens from coming home, like shooting someone's pets, wasn't an option. We spent hundreds of millions repatriating them.
Hi Message, I never mentioned preventing citizens from returning and the NZ government certainly didn't prevent citizens to return to their country, which is a right as far as we are concerned and i n law. However, there are policies in place that has make it somewhat difficult for people to return as they freely as pre-covid times.
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Ted.
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Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: UK's early Covid response worst health failure ever

Post by Ted. »

bimboman wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:10 am
Ted. wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:55 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:45 am
Ted. wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:00 pm
When did UK lock down? How stringent was it?

NZ introduced isolation for people entering the country on March 14, then closed the borders on the 20th. On the 21st we had out first lockdown, which was at our level 2. The government then ups it to level 3 on the 23rd and announces going to level 4 on the 25th, which duly happens. We haven't been out of some form of restriction since, though in between times it's been pretty much business as usual apart from the international borders being more or less shut.

Our infection rates and deaths have been low. Our economy has done remarkably well. Yet, if we hadn't shut down as tight as we did, given the parlous state of our ICU, etc, we would have been utterly f**ked.

However, we can only prop up the economy for so long without increasing interaction locally and internally. When we do open up, the shit will surely hit the fan, we're kidding ourselves if we think it won't be bad and as one of our pollies quipped, it will be "Covid for Christmas". Hopefully our shit is relatively easy to clean off the fan and doesn't pong as much as yours, i.e. I'm not sure why you would think ours is nauseating given the odiferous pong you lot have been producing :P
But again, that was in March 2020. You are patting yourselves on the back but the reality is that you didn't change course until mid March, way after the period we are talking about. I recall that NZ's pubs were open on St Patrick's Day for example, but closed here. The decision to go the way NZ did and repudiate the WHO was brave, but by the time you made that decision, it was game over in Europe. The UK went for hard lockdown on the exact same date as NZ did.

The genomic sequencing shows that most of Asia and NZ/Aus had little to no of the 614G variant which is suspected of causing the explosion in cases over the course of February. 91% of cases in Italy in February had it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/worl ... ation.html

That is the real story on how NZ and Australia managed a very soft first wave. It's funny how it is rarely discussed whilst now other variants are, it doesn't suit some agendas.
We weren't patting ourselves ion the back, well some people might have been, but that is your view in hindsight regardless.

Anyway, we didn't need to lock down earlier, why would we? Surely it's more relevant why and how, not when. However, as pointed out above, when we did go, we went relatively hard and it worked.

It actually bloody worked! Something that you seem to be ignoring for some reason. Why is that?

We had little to no of the variant you say was so deadly in Europe or the UK. Which was it, little or no, and why so little if it was so virulent, surely it would supplant the less virulent strains as delta has?

Do you think, perhaps, that was because your so called "hard lockdowns" weren't so hard as you think. That arrogantly failing to control your borders, in particular, lead to the explosion of the more virulent strains when closing our borders prevented exactly that.

Let's apply some reasoning to this. Hmm!

Reasoning ?

Even after a year plus of explaining about the scale and connectivity of Europe vs NZ you tritely trot out “border control” nonsense.
Your stance, that border control is nonsense, is well known Bimbo.
bimboman
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Re: UK's early Covid response worst health failure ever

Post by bimboman »

As I said connectivity, numbers and demands on travel in Europe seem to be beyond your comprehension in the village.
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message #2527204
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Re: UK's early Covid response worst health failure ever

Post by message #2527204 »

Ted. wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:24 am
message #2527204 wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:07 am
Ted. wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:55 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:45 am
Ted. wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:00 pm
When did UK lock down? How stringent was it?

NZ introduced isolation for people entering the country on March 14, then closed the borders on the 20th. On the 21st we had out first lockdown, which was at our level 2. The government then ups it to level 3 on the 23rd and announces going to level 4 on the 25th, which duly happens. We haven't been out of some form of restriction since, though in between times it's been pretty much business as usual apart from the international borders being more or less shut.

Our infection rates and deaths have been low. Our economy has done remarkably well. Yet, if we hadn't shut down as tight as we did, given the parlous state of our ICU, etc, we would have been utterly f**ked.

However, we can only prop up the economy for so long without increasing interaction locally and internally. When we do open up, the shit will surely hit the fan, we're kidding ourselves if we think it won't be bad and as one of our pollies quipped, it will be "Covid for Christmas". Hopefully our shit is relatively easy to clean off the fan and doesn't pong as much as yours, i.e. I'm not sure why you would think ours is nauseating given the odiferous pong you lot have been producing :P
But again, that was in March 2020. You are patting yourselves on the back but the reality is that you didn't change course until mid March, way after the period we are talking about. I recall that NZ's pubs were open on St Patrick's Day for example, but closed here. The decision to go the way NZ did and repudiate the WHO was brave, but by the time you made that decision, it was game over in Europe. The UK went for hard lockdown on the exact same date as NZ did.

The genomic sequencing shows that most of Asia and NZ/Aus had little to no of the 614G variant which is suspected of causing the explosion in cases over the course of February. 91% of cases in Italy in February had it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/worl ... ation.html

That is the real story on how NZ and Australia managed a very soft first wave. It's funny how it is rarely discussed whilst now other variants are, it doesn't suit some agendas.
We weren't patting ourselves ion the back, well some people might have been, but that is your view in hindsight regardless.

Anyway, we didn't need to lock down earlier, why would we? Surely it's more relevant why and how, not when. However, as pointed out above, when we did go, we went relatively hard and it worked.

It actually bloody worked! Something that you seem to be ignoring for some reason. Why is that?

We had little to no of the variant you say was so deadly in Europe or the UK. Which was it, little or no, and why so little if it was so virulent, surely it would supplant the less virulent strains as delta has?

Do you think, perhaps, that was because your so called "hard lockdowns" weren't so hard as you think. That arrogantly failing to control your borders, in particular, lead to the explosion of the more virulent strains when closing our borders prevented exactly that.

Let's apply some reasoning to this. Hmm!
Preventing UK citzens from coming home, like shooting someone's pets, wasn't an option. We spent hundreds of millions repatriating them.
Hi Message, I never mentioned preventing citizens from returning and the NZ government certainly didn't prevent citizens to return to their country, which is a right as far as we are concerned and i n law. However, there are policies in place that has make it somewhat difficult for people to return as they freely as pre-covid times.
You repatriated all 27 of them?
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Blackrock Bullet
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Re: UK's early Covid response worst health failure ever

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

Ted. wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:55 pm
We weren't patting ourselves ion the back, well some people might have been, but that is your view in hindsight regardless.

Anyway, we didn't need to lock down earlier, why would we? Surely it's more relevant why and how, not when. However, as pointed out above, when we did go, we went relatively hard and it worked.

It actually bloody worked! Something that you seem to be ignoring for some reason. Why is that?

We had little to no of the variant you say was so deadly in Europe or the UK. Which was it, little or no, and why so little if it was so virulent, surely it would supplant the less virulent strains as delta has?

Do you think, perhaps, that was because your so called "hard lockdowns" weren't so hard as you think. That arrogantly failing to control your borders, in particular, lead to the explosion of the more virulent strains when closing our borders prevented exactly that.

Let's apply some reasoning to this. Hmm!
This misses the point completely. NZ only repudiated the WHO advice in late March. Before then they were following a similar thing to the UK, with the contain/delay/mitigation phases.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7436486/

This is why the picking out of the UK for individual blame for February time is odd.

Re the lockdowns, you are a bit clueless. Studies have shown that R was collapsing before the lockdowns and went below 1 in the week before. Fear drove a lot of things and the streets were deserted in Europe once lockdowns kicked in. There was none of this "we did lockdown better!"/"why wasn't X closed". There was nothing open in late March outside of retail shops and pharmacies.

The reason why Australia and NZ got a reduced hit first time out is a combination of having little amounts of the 614G variant and it being later in the summer. Europe had a lot of virus at the point NZ decided to pursue elimination.

If you want to talk about actions subsequent to March 2020 then fine, to me that's a different debate.
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Re: UK's early Covid response worst health failure ever

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

Ted. wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:26 am

Your stance, that border control is nonsense, is well known Bimbo.
NZ closed their borders in mid March. Covid had already got in and NZ were only just deciding to move away from the Influenza Pandemic Plan at that point.

Covid was rampant in Europe by then.

NZ got lucky in that their geographical position meant they got little of that 614G variant that exploded in Italy in February 2020.

Border control has been relatively effective for New Zealand keeping up the strategy that they moved to - elimination - from late March 2020. But we are talking about the early days of the pandemic here.

I'm not sure why there is this desperation to paint the UK as X and New Zealand as Y when it comes to the early response. If anything, NZ following the course of everyone, riding its luck but then deciding to change course was a brave policy move by the Government.
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Ted.
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Re: UK's early Covid response worst health failure ever

Post by Ted. »

Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:09 am
Ted. wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:26 am

Your stance, that border control is nonsense, is well known Bimbo.
NZ closed their borders in mid March. Covid had already got in and NZ were only just deciding to move away from the Influenza Pandemic Plan at that point.

Covid was rampant in Europe by then.

NZ got lucky in that their geographical position meant they got little of that 614G variant that exploded in Italy in February 2020.

Border control has been relatively effective for New Zealand keeping up the strategy that they moved to - elimination - from late March 2020. But we are talking about the early days of the pandemic here.

I'm not sure why there is this desperation to paint the UK as X and New Zealand as Y when it comes to the early response. If anything, NZ following the course of everyone, riding its luck but then deciding to change course was a brave policy move by the Government.
It's only you who is painting our response as early and it's also you painting the UK and X, but NZ as something else for whatever reason, perhaps so you can say that our strategy was both lucky and flawed. It's not a cock waving contest, yet you seem compelled to view this as a zero sum game.

Anyway, sure, we could afford to wait and see what the rest of the world were up to. We're not denying that. When we did go, however, we went in boots and all based on the advice of our experts and with the benefit of others' experience, for good and ill.

Covid got in all right, but it never took enough of a hold that it stayed in. Gee, lucky us!

However, as anyone who knows anything knows, if it's anything, this disease is dynamic and so must be the response. Delta is different, we're treating it differently and yes, we're certainly having a harder time of it. But, we've done comparatively well in the meantime due to our initial response, not despite it. To deny that is simply churlish.

Also, this bleating about being so connected you couldn't really lockdown. Singapore, Hong Kong and any number of other states are just as connected, yet still effectively shut their borders. It's tosh to say it can't be done simply because you are near to something or other.
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Re: UK's early Covid response worst health failure ever

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

Ted. wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:55 am
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:09 am
Ted. wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:26 am

Your stance, that border control is nonsense, is well known Bimbo.
NZ closed their borders in mid March. Covid had already got in and NZ were only just deciding to move away from the Influenza Pandemic Plan at that point.

Covid was rampant in Europe by then.

NZ got lucky in that their geographical position meant they got little of that 614G variant that exploded in Italy in February 2020.

Border control has been relatively effective for New Zealand keeping up the strategy that they moved to - elimination - from late March 2020. But we are talking about the early days of the pandemic here.

I'm not sure why there is this desperation to paint the UK as X and New Zealand as Y when it comes to the early response. If anything, NZ following the course of everyone, riding its luck but then deciding to change course was a brave policy move by the Government.
It's only you who is painting our response as early and it's also you painting the UK and X, but NZ as something else for whatever reason, perhaps so you can say that our strategy was both lucky and flawed. It's not a cock waving contest, yet you seem compelled to view this as a zero sum game.

Anyway, sure, we could afford to wait and see what the rest of the world were up to. We're not denying that. When we did go, however, we went in boots and all based on the advice of our experts and with the benefit of others' experience, for good and ill.

Covid got in all right, but it never took enough of a hold that it stayed in. Gee, lucky us!

However, as anyone who knows anything knows, if it's anything, this disease is dynamic and so must be the response. Delta is different, we're treating it differently and yes, we're certainly having a harder time of it. But, we've done comparatively well in the meantime due to our initial response, not despite it. To deny that is simply churlish.

Also, this bleating about being so connected you couldn't really lockdown. Singapore, Hong Kong and any number of other states are just as connected, yet still effectively shut their borders. It's tosh to say it can't be done simply because you are near to something or other.
The report and this entire thread is about the early response.

Re bolded, no you didn't. You changed strategy, which is fine and noble, but it wasn't "a part of the plan".

Delta has nothing to do with the timeframe we are discussing.
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