It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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CM11 wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:29 am On the other stuff, you can take your argument and replace poverty with obesity too. Or any other secondary condition/situation that weakens your life expectancy.
As far as I can see, the original point still remains: if the person would have lived without corona-virus and also would have lived without obesity (and probably better and longer too), who is to say which one is the "primary/secondary" health condition? What killed him?

I'd say the correct answer is, "both things". The combination.

CM11 wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:29 am For the record, obesity is absolutely an issue that needs to be tackled, let's for argument's sake say even more than covid, but it's not something that can be tackled or needs to be tackled with sweeping public measures that effect everyone.
Yes, I totally get this point and agree. You can't catch obesity by passing someone on the street.

Just to play devil's advocate however, there is still a point here. It is "what level of social upheaval or limitations on freedom are we prepared to endure to save X amount of lives?". If someone is obese, the measures need not be "sweeping public measures that effect everyone". Only the obese people needs to be forcibly put on a diet and exercise regime to solve the problem. Would that be acceptable?

Obviously not. But it does highlight the extraordinary social and economic sacrifices that some are apparently willing to endure to save far fewer (and typically very old) people in the case of corona-virus.
Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:25 am
Clogs wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:12 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:05 am I don't really get the logic behind your first sentence, but other than that, I agree.

I think there has been a huge drop in case-fatality-rate (correct me if I'm wrong?) since the outbreak began. If so, that has not doubt something to do with improved treatment options, but also, I'd be surprised if it were not also a contributing factor that some statistically significant number of the most vulnerable have already caught it and, well... died. At the very least in places like Sweden. They maybe still hanging on in other places such as NZ.

In any case, it's definitely true that the experts are still figuring it out and we'll be in a better position to judge retrospectively in a year or two.
Improved treatment to some extent, but hospitalisations have dropped off too. This I think is largely due to those people that know they are at a higher risk, being more sensible about their comings and goings and more focus on hygiene at healthcare/aged care facilities* is helping those most vulnerable folks too. So while we may be seeing a second wave and increase in infections, these infections are occurring amongst the lower risk categories therefore less hospitalisations/deaths.

* Interesting case in point, there are less deaths in Aged Care in Australia this year even with Covid than there were last year. More vigilance, better hygiene etc.
Anecdotally, it seems to me that people in Sweden at least are being noticeably less careful. At the beginning of the outbreak, Stockholm was like a ghost-town, hand sanitizer and medicine disapeared from store shelves, online grocery shopping services were overloaded, etc. etc.

These days it's almost life as usual, complete with packed public-transport, people returning to the office, packed out shopping centers, and people ignoring even the free hand sanitizer that is strategically placed around the place.

Yep, that would probably be similar in most countries. Hence the second wave of increasing rates of infection. The difference this wave at least is that there are increased infections from those least at risk. The reduced hospitalisations however is due to those at high risk of adverse outcome being more cautious.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Blackrock Bullet wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:39 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:20 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:03 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:00 pm
Clogs wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:34 am

The lowest rate of infection in the world. They might just ever so sneakily be trying to make a point after facing so many months of criticism.
The point of lockdown was to save lives while we developed therapeutics and vaccines. Norway and Denmark have either had no deaths or just one or two over the last 14 days.If Tegnell considers this to be a win he is a slag
The point of lockdowns obviously failed in lots of countries going by your standard so.

Once again, you ignore what was said. They have admitted to failing in care homes.
I'm not ignoring what they said. I've told you before though I put more store by what they do than what they say.

In an email Anders Tegnell never intended the public to see he said
One point would be to keep schools open to reach herd immunity faster,” Tegnell commented. Salminen replied that the Finnish health agency had considered this but rejected it because “over time, the children are still going to spread the infection” to other age groups.

Finland’s modelling suggested closing schools would reduce the spread of Covid-19 among elderly people by about 10%, Salminen said in the email. Tegnell replied: “10% might be worth it?
Sweden kept schools open for under 16's

That is not failing the elderly that is throwing them under the bus


Below is a graph showing the number of deaths in the 4 most populous nordic countries.
Image
Over what period does the 10% refer to?

Over what period would closing schools refer to? What was the damage of closing schools? Remember the start of the pandemic when all of this was considered?
As the email says they were taking about how long it would take them to get to herd immunity (you know the thing that wasn't their goal). Don't know how long they thought it would take.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:37 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:25 am
Clogs wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:12 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:05 am I don't really get the logic behind your first sentence, but other than that, I agree.

I think there has been a huge drop in case-fatality-rate (correct me if I'm wrong?) since the outbreak began. If so, that has not doubt something to do with improved treatment options, but also, I'd be surprised if it were not also a contributing factor that some statistically significant number of the most vulnerable have already caught it and, well... died. At the very least in places like Sweden. They maybe still hanging on in other places such as NZ.

In any case, it's definitely true that the experts are still figuring it out and we'll be in a better position to judge retrospectively in a year or two.
Improved treatment to some extent, but hospitalisations have dropped off too. This I think is largely due to those people that know they are at a higher risk, being more sensible about their comings and goings and more focus on hygiene at healthcare/aged care facilities* is helping those most vulnerable folks too. So while we may be seeing a second wave and increase in infections, these infections are occurring amongst the lower risk categories therefore less hospitalisations/deaths.

* Interesting case in point, there are less deaths in Aged Care in Australia this year even with Covid than there were last year. More vigilance, better hygiene etc.
Anecdotally, it seems to me that people in Sweden at least are being noticeably less careful. At the beginning of the outbreak, Stockholm was like a ghost-town, hand sanitizer and medicine disapeared from store shelves, online grocery shopping services were overloaded, etc. etc.

These days it's almost life as usual, complete with packed public-transport, people returning to the office, packed out shopping centers, and people ignoring even the free hand sanitizer that is strategically placed around the place.

Yep, that would probably be similar in most countries. Hence the second wave of increasing rates of infection. The difference this wave at least is that there are increased infections from those least at risk. The reduced hospitalisations however is due to those at high risk of adverse outcome being more cautious.
... not in Sweden. Which I guess is the point of the OP, even if the article and source is junk.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:05 am
Clogs wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:37 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:25 am
Clogs wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:12 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:05 am I don't really get the logic behind your first sentence, but other than that, I agree.

I think there has been a huge drop in case-fatality-rate (correct me if I'm wrong?) since the outbreak began. If so, that has not doubt something to do with improved treatment options, but also, I'd be surprised if it were not also a contributing factor that some statistically significant number of the most vulnerable have already caught it and, well... died. At the very least in places like Sweden. They maybe still hanging on in other places such as NZ.

In any case, it's definitely true that the experts are still figuring it out and we'll be in a better position to judge retrospectively in a year or two.
Improved treatment to some extent, but hospitalisations have dropped off too. This I think is largely due to those people that know they are at a higher risk, being more sensible about their comings and goings and more focus on hygiene at healthcare/aged care facilities* is helping those most vulnerable folks too. So while we may be seeing a second wave and increase in infections, these infections are occurring amongst the lower risk categories therefore less hospitalisations/deaths.

* Interesting case in point, there are less deaths in Aged Care in Australia this year even with Covid than there were last year. More vigilance, better hygiene etc.
Anecdotally, it seems to me that people in Sweden at least are being noticeably less careful. At the beginning of the outbreak, Stockholm was like a ghost-town, hand sanitizer and medicine disapeared from store shelves, online grocery shopping services were overloaded, etc. etc.

These days it's almost life as usual, complete with packed public-transport, people returning to the office, packed out shopping centers, and people ignoring even the free hand sanitizer that is strategically placed around the place.

Yep, that would probably be similar in most countries. Hence the second wave of increasing rates of infection. The difference this wave at least is that there are increased infections from those least at risk. The reduced hospitalisations however is due to those at high risk of adverse outcome being more cautious.
... not in Sweden. Which I guess is the point of the OP, even if the article and source is junk.

Yep...
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Second coronavirus wave unlikely in Denmark: top expert

A second wave of the new coronavirus is unlikely in Denmark as the reproduction rate has stayed below a key threshold since restrictions were eased a month ago, a top health expert said Tuesday.


The reproduction rate has fallen from 1.0 at the end of April to 0.7 in the first week in May, according to the state-run infectious disease prevention agency SSI, the nation's top institute of its kind.

A reproduction rate of 1.0 means that one person with COVID-19 infects on average just one other, while a rate of less than 1.0 indicates that the spread is declining.

"If the virus were allowed to spread freely and we were doing nothing, then it would be likely that we would have a second wave of COVID-19 ... but we have learned more about how to handle this illness," SSI expert Kare Molbak told reporters.

"We are going to do everything in our power to prevent a second wave. I think we have the prerequisites to do that now,", Molbak said.

Denmark shut down schools, shops, restaurants and businesses in mid-March in a bid to curb the spread of the disease.

It was the first country in Europe to reopen its nursery and primary schools on April 15.

Since then small businesses like hair salons, dentist offices and tattoo parlours have been allowed to reopen, followed this week by shopping centres and department stores.

This progressive return to normal life has not led to an increase in the number of confirmed cases, with the reproduction rate remaining below 1.0.

Molbak's comments came as Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced a scheme for expanded testing to detect even more cases, including those showing no symptoms, and new measures to facilitate self-isolation for those who test positive.

A country of 5.8 million, Denmark has tested more than 334,300 people for the virus. So far it has registered 10,789 cases and 533 deaths.

The Scandinavian country's restaurants and cafes are scheduled to reopen on May 18, when middle school students are also expected to return to class.

Museums, theatres, cinemas, and outdoor theme parks and zoos are meanwhile due to reopen on June 8.

Gatherings, currently limited to 10 people, will be raised to 30 or 50 on June 8 depending on the type of event.


Image

COPENHAGEN, Sept. 10 (Xinhua) -- Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Thursday that despite recent increases in COVID-19 infections in the country, there were no plans to lock down the whole of society again.
Denmark registered 317 COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, said Frederiksen in a speech to the Danish Chamber of Commerce anniversary meeting.
"Unfortunately, the infection is rising again. We find ourselves in a difficult position until a vaccine or a treatment is available," said Frederiksen.
Praising the business community for getting the country "safely through a global pandemic," the prime minister also reassured business leaders.
"We will do everything we can to avoid a shut down, as we did on March 11. It was the right thing to do then. It will not be the right thing to do again," she said.

It is going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds... :(
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:09 am
It is going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds... :(
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:09 am
Second coronavirus wave unlikely in Denmark: top expert

A second wave of the new coronavirus is unlikely in Denmark as the reproduction rate has stayed below a key threshold since restrictions were eased a month ago, a top health expert said Tuesday.


The reproduction rate has fallen from 1.0 at the end of April to 0.7 in the first week in May, according to the state-run infectious disease prevention agency SSI, the nation's top institute of its kind.

A reproduction rate of 1.0 means that one person with COVID-19 infects on average just one other, while a rate of less than 1.0 indicates that the spread is declining.

"If the virus were allowed to spread freely and we were doing nothing, then it would be likely that we would have a second wave of COVID-19 ... but we have learned more about how to handle this illness," SSI expert Kare Molbak told reporters.

"We are going to do everything in our power to prevent a second wave. I think we have the prerequisites to do that now,", Molbak said.

Denmark shut down schools, shops, restaurants and businesses in mid-March in a bid to curb the spread of the disease.

It was the first country in Europe to reopen its nursery and primary schools on April 15.

Since then small businesses like hair salons, dentist offices and tattoo parlours have been allowed to reopen, followed this week by shopping centres and department stores.

This progressive return to normal life has not led to an increase in the number of confirmed cases, with the reproduction rate remaining below 1.0.

Molbak's comments came as Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced a scheme for expanded testing to detect even more cases, including those showing no symptoms, and new measures to facilitate self-isolation for those who test positive.

A country of 5.8 million, Denmark has tested more than 334,300 people for the virus. So far it has registered 10,789 cases and 533 deaths.

The Scandinavian country's restaurants and cafes are scheduled to reopen on May 18, when middle school students are also expected to return to class.

Museums, theatres, cinemas, and outdoor theme parks and zoos are meanwhile due to reopen on June 8.

Gatherings, currently limited to 10 people, will be raised to 30 or 50 on June 8 depending on the type of event.
Image

COPENHAGEN, Sept. 10 (Xinhua) -- Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Thursday that despite recent increases in COVID-19 infections in the country, there were no plans to lock down the whole of society again.
Denmark registered 317 COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, said Frederiksen in a speech to the Danish Chamber of Commerce anniversary meeting.
"Unfortunately, the infection is rising again. We find ourselves in a difficult position until a vaccine or a treatment is available," said Frederiksen.
Praising the business community for getting the country "safely through a global pandemic," the prime minister also reassured business leaders.
"We will do everything we can to avoid a shut down, as we did on March 11. It was the right thing to do then. It will not be the right thing to do again," she said.

It is going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds... :(
Looks like they have just decided to go it the Swedish way. So much for "Sweden's neighbors" being held up as an example.
Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:09 am

COPENHAGEN, Sept. 10 (Xinhua) -- Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Thursday that despite recent increases in COVID-19 infections in the country, there were no plans to lock down the whole of society again.
Denmark registered 317 COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, said Frederiksen in a speech to the Danish Chamber of Commerce anniversary meeting.
"Unfortunately, the infection is rising again. We find ourselves in a difficult position until a vaccine or a treatment is available," said Frederiksen.
Praising the business community for getting the country "safely through a global pandemic," the prime minister also reassured business leaders.
"We will do everything we can to avoid a shut down, as we did on March 11. It was the right thing to do then. It will not be the right thing to do again," she said.

It is going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds... :(
Sadly it will be the same everywhere, countries can no longer afford to lockdown or disrupt the economy to much. That will be the overriding factor in future COVID-19 decisions.

Still I hope governments put in more protective measures for the elderly, especially in care homes. That is where the bulk of deaths comes from and that is where more disaster can be avoided.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Enzedder wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:53 am
Clogs wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:09 am
It is going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds... :(
Image
I can't see any reason why it wouldn't go basically the same way Sweden went but without as many deaths. Danish culture is quite similar to Swedish culture. Sweden made some mistakes with nursing home care that blew out the numbers that the Danes could learn from.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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eldanielfire wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:59 am Still I hope governments put in more protective measures for the elderly, especially in care homes. That is where the bulk of deaths comes from and that is where more disaster can be avoided.
That is true and obviously I wish for the best for everyone, but there's only so much social and economic upheaval society as a whole should be forced to endure to extend the life of a bunch of demented old people in nursing homes for a few months over what many of them would be naturally.

I know that sounds cold-hearted, but it's the type of consideration that law and policy makers deal with constantly. If it were a virus that targeted children and was killing off kindergartens it would obviously be a very very different scenario, that's just a reality.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:10 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:59 am Still I hope governments put in more protective measures for the elderly, especially in care homes. That is where the bulk of deaths comes from and that is where more disaster can be avoided.
That is true and obviously I wish for the best for everyone, but there's only so much social and economic upheaval society as a whole should be forced to endure to extend the life of a bunch of demented old people in nursing homes for a few months over what many of them would be naturally.

I know that sounds cold-hearted, but it's the type of consideration that law and policy makers deal with constantly. If it were a virus that targeted children and was killing off kindergartens it would obviously be a very very different scenario, that's just a reality.
Cold-hearted? Maybe. What was the point of using the word demented? It adds nothing to your argument, isn't necessarily accurate, and comes over as pretty dismissive of these old people and their lives.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Well over half of people in nursing homes have cognitive impairment. Them's are the facts
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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That reads wrong. I don't think you should throw them to the wolves but keeping it out seems impossible as staff will carry it in asymptomatically. Suppose they can help by isolating the sick people more quickly but it will be finger in dyke stuff again
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:05 am
Enzedder wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:53 am
Clogs wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:09 am
It is going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds... :(
Image
I can't see any reason why it wouldn't go basically the same way Sweden went but without as many deaths. Danish culture is quite similar to Swedish culture. Sweden made some mistakes with nursing home care that blew out the numbers that the Danes could learn from.
The Danes also have more home care for the elderly, which helped them the first time out too.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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koroke hangareka wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:24 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:10 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:59 am Still I hope governments put in more protective measures for the elderly, especially in care homes. That is where the bulk of deaths comes from and that is where more disaster can be avoided.
That is true and obviously I wish for the best for everyone, but there's only so much social and economic upheaval society as a whole should be forced to endure to extend the life of a bunch of demented old people in nursing homes for a few months over what many of them would be naturally.

I know that sounds cold-hearted, but it's the type of consideration that law and policy makers deal with constantly. If it were a virus that targeted children and was killing off kindergartens it would obviously be a very very different scenario, that's just a reality.
Cold-hearted? Maybe. What was the point of using the word demented? It adds nothing to your argument, isn't necessarily accurate, and comes over as pretty dismissive of these old people and their lives.
A lot of them are demented, which is why they require a nursing home and people to look after them. I'm not saying that a high number of nursing home deaths is all fine, who cares? Nor am I belittling folk in nursing homes. I may end up in one yet. I'm just saying it's far less of a tragedy than it would be if it were a bunch of kindergarten deaths. And the fact that half of them don't even know what year it or where they are is part of that equation.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Most over 70s have some sort of underlying condition Mog. It's not just about the nursing homes.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Yes thanks for the tip. But we are talking about nursing homes.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:38 pm Yes thanks for the tip. But we are talking about nursing homes.
Well eldanielfire said elderly people and highlighted care homes as opposed to just specifying them.

I'm not sure where you're getting breaking the economy protecting care homes. Ring fencing them is more a social, not economic issue. It's protecting elderly in the community that is causing the economic damage.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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CM11 wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:42 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:38 pm Yes thanks for the tip. But we are talking about nursing homes.
Well eldanielfire said elderly people and highlighted care homes as opposed to just specifying them.

I'm not sure where you're getting breaking the economy protecting care homes. Ring fencing them is more a social, not economic issue. It's protecting elderly in the community that is causing the economic damage.
I dunno what you're talking about. I started off by saying Sweden's numbers were overblown because a lot of people in nursing homes died and if Denmark went down the Swedish route, which it looks like they have now chosen to do, they wouldn't necessarily have to make the same mistakes as far as the nursing homes go.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Over 50 000 infections recorded in Europe yesterday. Over 300 000 in the last week. Interestingly the CFR has dropped dramatically. Mutation? Medication? Or more caution from those at most risk? Or a combination of all of the above?

Based on these numbers Imperial College modelling would probably show 82 billion deaths in Europe in the next 9 days?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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We are clearly now into the dreaded second wave in Europe, if nations don't do hard lockdowns then this phase will likely see many many more infections but is ultimately likely to see a much reduced third wave (if at all). Lockdowns as we have now seen won't eliminate the virus, it simply pushes the problem further down the track. This is an effective strategy if there is a vaccine available. And it can be administered in sufficient quantities in as short a timeframe as possible for it to achieve the desired herd immunity.

Most European nations have indicated they will not go into a second lockdown. It will be interesting to see which nation changes its mind first (this second wave of infection is shaping up to be far far worse than the first wave). It will also be interesting to see if this second wave of infection spreads that far and wide that natural herd immunity starts to kick in (thereby reducing the severity of a third wave) and potentially even reduce the dependency on a vaccine.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:43 pm
CM11 wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:42 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:38 pm Yes thanks for the tip. But we are talking about nursing homes.
Well eldanielfire said elderly people and highlighted care homes as opposed to just specifying them.

I'm not sure where you're getting breaking the economy protecting care homes. Ring fencing them is more a social, not economic issue. It's protecting elderly in the community that is causing the economic damage.
I dunno what you're talking about. I started off by saying Sweden's numbers were overblown because a lot of people in nursing homes died and if Denmark went down the Swedish route, which it looks like they have now chosen to do, they wouldn't necessarily have to make the same mistakes as far as the nursing homes go.
Do you think countries that came out of lockdown once the R rate fell have gone down the Swedish route ?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:18 am We are clearly now into the dreaded second wave in Europe, if nations don't do hard lockdowns then this phase will likely see many many more infections but is ultimately likely to see a much reduced third wave (if at all). Lockdowns as we have now seen won't eliminate the virus, it simply pushes the problem further down the track. This is an effective strategy if there is a vaccine available. And it can be administered in sufficient quantities in as short a timeframe as possible for it to achieve the desired herd immunity.

Most European nations have indicated they will not go into a second lockdown. It will be interesting to see which nation changes its mind first (this second wave of infection is shaping up to be far far worse than the first wave). It will also be interesting to see if this second wave of infection spreads that far and wide that natural herd immunity starts to kick in (thereby reducing the severity of a third wave) and potentially even reduce the dependency on a vaccine.
The models say that without intervention it will be worse but as you know there will be intervention.
Local lockdowns
Increased uptake in flu vaccines
mandatory mask wearing that we just didn't have in March
Therapeutic treatments that just didn't exist in March.
Much more widely available hand gel at lower prices.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Anonymous 1 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:40 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:18 am We are clearly now into the dreaded second wave in Europe, if nations don't do hard lockdowns then this phase will likely see many many more infections but is ultimately likely to see a much reduced third wave (if at all). Lockdowns as we have now seen won't eliminate the virus, it simply pushes the problem further down the track. This is an effective strategy if there is a vaccine available. And it can be administered in sufficient quantities in as short a timeframe as possible for it to achieve the desired herd immunity.

Most European nations have indicated they will not go into a second lockdown. It will be interesting to see which nation changes its mind first (this second wave of infection is shaping up to be far far worse than the first wave). It will also be interesting to see if this second wave of infection spreads that far and wide that natural herd immunity starts to kick in (thereby reducing the severity of a third wave) and potentially even reduce the dependency on a vaccine.
The models say that without intervention it will be worse but as you know there will be intervention.
Local lockdowns
Increased uptake in flu vaccines
mandatory mask wearing that we just didn't have in March
Therapeutic treatments that just didn't exist in March.
I think what we are seeing is that we only tested a miniscule fraction of cases in the first wave. The testing capacity/capability was about 1/5th of what we are seeing now, combined with the fact that only the very sick were getting tested meant that most cases were undetected. I think if we were able to test back at the start, the rate we are currently testing, we probably would have seen a tenfold increase in the detected cases and this second wave would therefore actually be a bit lower than the first wave.
That coupled with the improved social distancing etc that you mention of course.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:02 am I think what we are seeing is that we only tested a miniscule fraction of cases in the first wave. The testing capacity/capability was about 1/5th of what we are seeing now, combined with the fact that only the very sick were getting tested meant that most cases were undetected. I think if we were able to test back at the start, the rate we are currently testing, we probably would have seen a tenfold increase in the detected cases and this second wave would therefore actually be a bit lower than the first wave.
That coupled with the improved social distancing etc that you mention of course.
I think the evidence in the UK at least shows people don't really give a shit about social distancing and it only really works with degrees of lockdown. Mandatory mask wearing goes someway to combat peoples unwillingness to be social distant. Anyway I was responding to you saying "this second wave of infection is shaping up to be far far worse than the first wave"
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Anonymous 1 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:10 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:02 am I think what we are seeing is that we only tested a miniscule fraction of cases in the first wave. The testing capacity/capability was about 1/5th of what we are seeing now, combined with the fact that only the very sick were getting tested meant that most cases were undetected. I think if we were able to test back at the start, the rate we are currently testing, we probably would have seen a tenfold increase in the detected cases and this second wave would therefore actually be a bit lower than the first wave.
That coupled with the improved social distancing etc that you mention of course.
I think the evidence in the UK at least shows people don't really give a shit about social distancing and it only really works with degrees of lockdown. Mandatory mask wearing goes someway to combat peoples unwillingness to be social distant. Anyway I was responding to you saying "this second wave of infection is shaping up to be far far worse than the first wave"

Yes, understand. In terms of infections it is shaping up to be worse, but deaths and hospitalisations it isn't. France and Spain are real eye openers.

I think where it is leading to is that way way way more people have been infected and undetected. It might be we get close to herd immunity before a vaccine becomes available...
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:17 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:10 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:02 am I think what we are seeing is that we only tested a miniscule fraction of cases in the first wave. The testing capacity/capability was about 1/5th of what we are seeing now, combined with the fact that only the very sick were getting tested meant that most cases were undetected. I think if we were able to test back at the start, the rate we are currently testing, we probably would have seen a tenfold increase in the detected cases and this second wave would therefore actually be a bit lower than the first wave.
That coupled with the improved social distancing etc that you mention of course.
I think the evidence in the UK at least shows people don't really give a shit about social distancing and it only really works with degrees of lockdown. Mandatory mask wearing goes someway to combat peoples unwillingness to be social distant. Anyway I was responding to you saying "this second wave of infection is shaping up to be far far worse than the first wave"

Yes, understand. In terms of infections it is shaping up to be worse, but deaths and hospitalisations it isn't. France and Spain are real eye openers.

I think where it is leading to is that way way way more people have been infected and undetected. It might be we get close to herd immunity before a vaccine becomes available...
What you mean is in terms of infections it's shaping up to have higher numbers because of more tests being conducted but not actually shaping up to have more infections. As for natural herd immunity I just give up. Although I do hope you guys are right and this coronavirus will turn out to be different from other ones. Fingers crossed
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Anonymous 1 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:27 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:17 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:10 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:02 am I think what we are seeing is that we only tested a miniscule fraction of cases in the first wave. The testing capacity/capability was about 1/5th of what we are seeing now, combined with the fact that only the very sick were getting tested meant that most cases were undetected. I think if we were able to test back at the start, the rate we are currently testing, we probably would have seen a tenfold increase in the detected cases and this second wave would therefore actually be a bit lower than the first wave.
That coupled with the improved social distancing etc that you mention of course.
I think the evidence in the UK at least shows people don't really give a shit about social distancing and it only really works with degrees of lockdown. Mandatory mask wearing goes someway to combat peoples unwillingness to be social distant. Anyway I was responding to you saying "this second wave of infection is shaping up to be far far worse than the first wave"

Yes, understand. In terms of infections it is shaping up to be worse, but deaths and hospitalisations it isn't. France and Spain are real eye openers.

I think where it is leading to is that way way way more people have been infected and undetected. It might be we get close to herd immunity before a vaccine becomes available...
What you mean is in terms of infections it's shaping up to have higher numbers because of more tests being conducted but not actually shaping up to have more infections. As for natural herd immunity I just give up. Although I do hope you guys are right and this coronavirus will turn out to be different from other ones. Fingers crossed
Yes higher numbers because of more testing. Spain and France are showing huge second wave spikes but their deaths are not following. Even with lag.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Anonymous 1 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:25 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:43 pm
CM11 wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:42 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:38 pm Yes thanks for the tip. But we are talking about nursing homes.
Well eldanielfire said elderly people and highlighted care homes as opposed to just specifying them.

I'm not sure where you're getting breaking the economy protecting care homes. Ring fencing them is more a social, not economic issue. It's protecting elderly in the community that is causing the economic damage.
I dunno what you're talking about. I started off by saying Sweden's numbers were overblown because a lot of people in nursing homes died and if Denmark went down the Swedish route, which it looks like they have now chosen to do, they wouldn't necessarily have to make the same mistakes as far as the nursing homes go.
Do you think countries that came out of lockdown once the R rate fell have gone down the Swedish route ?
Here's what Denmarks graph looks like right now, and their response has basically been, "f-ck it, we're not repeating another lockdown". So you put 2 plus 2 together. I didn't say they have historically used the Swedish strategy. I speculated that maybe, based upon their current predicament and what they are now saying, that they have chosen to do so now.

Image
Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:05 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:01 am Over 50 000 infections recorded in Europe yesterday. Over 300 000 in the last week. Interestingly the CFR has dropped dramatically. Mutation? Medication? Or more caution from those at most risk? Or a combination of all of the above?

Based on these numbers Imperial College modelling would probably show 82 billion deaths in Europe in the next 9 days?
Going through a younger cohort and treatment has improved.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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CM11 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:45 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:01 am Over 50 000 infections recorded in Europe yesterday. Over 300 000 in the last week. Interestingly the CFR has dropped dramatically. Mutation? Medication? Or more caution from those at most risk? Or a combination of all of the above?

Based on these numbers Imperial College modelling would probably show 82 billion deaths in Europe in the next 9 days?
Going through a younger cohort and treatment has improved.
Hospitalisations are extremely low too. I think it may also be down to more testing and testing of even the mildest of symptoms now. Comparing first wave and second wave is a bit challenging because there are such huge differences in data and measurements.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by AlanBengio »

The site Worldometer related to Coronavirus cases still report for Sweden the same numbers of infection it reported the 2 Sep 2020 (more than two weeks ago).
I may be wrong but if that is the case, it is more related to Sweden (which btw has anyway a bigger infection rate than Italy) not reporting numbers than to Sweden winning any battle

Edit: sorry it was me reading wrong data 😆
So numbers are correct
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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An interesting read. Lots going on, and it is pleasing to see that even though we are still some way to go with understanding this thing, our level of understanding is improving.

https://www.vox.com/21435868/coronaviru ... -uk-europe
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:56 am
CM11 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:45 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:01 am Over 50 000 infections recorded in Europe yesterday. Over 300 000 in the last week. Interestingly the CFR has dropped dramatically. Mutation? Medication? Or more caution from those at most risk? Or a combination of all of the above?

Based on these numbers Imperial College modelling would probably show 82 billion deaths in Europe in the next 9 days?
Going through a younger cohort and treatment has improved.
Hospitalisations are extremely low too. I think it may also be down to more testing and testing of even the mildest of symptoms now. Comparing first wave and second wave is a bit challenging because there are such huge differences in data and measurements.
This is a very interesting video by a seemingly knowledgeable Irish bloke explaining all of that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac

Not sure it's what he intended, but it seems to me that he implies at the start that the pandemic is effectively over (?).
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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CM11 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:45 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:01 am Over 50 000 infections recorded in Europe yesterday. Over 300 000 in the last week. Interestingly the CFR has dropped dramatically. Mutation? Medication? Or more caution from those at most risk? Or a combination of all of the above?

Based on these numbers Imperial College modelling would probably show 82 billion deaths in Europe in the next 9 days?
Going through a younger cohort and treatment has improved.
It's a fact in the UK that it's mostly young people who are testing positive. That is to be expected as they are the ones most likely to be going to pubs and parties and mixing in large numbers.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

Pretty hard to argue with actual historical record.

Anders Tegnell has some huge balls, that's for sure. He insisted it was all bullshit with no scientific evidence to support it ... and he was right. But imagine if he were wrong, he'd be suicidal by now. lol. Lucky he seems to have known his shit and been extremely confident in it too.

Image

Orange bar = modeled deaths in Sweden if they went through with their plans (no lockdown)

Grey bar = modeled deaths in Sweden if they did a hard lock down

Blue bar = actual deaths in Sweden

(modelling from Imperial College in London)
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Ferguson’s modelling is largely the subject of ridicule at this stage Mog
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Duff Paddy wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:38 am Ferguson’s modelling is largely the subject of ridicule at this stage Mog
Yes, that's my point. That's Sweden's point.

Watch that video though, there's much more than just that model (a couple of posts above).

He talks about other very recent studies that examine why Sweden's death rate was so high, and their conclusion is that their lockdown laws were of minimal significance. It's pretty complex stuff, but it's explained fairly well in the video.

I should add, it's not all about Sweden. That's just a small part of it. He also talks about Ireland, the UK and broader Europe.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:28 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:25 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:43 pm
CM11 wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:42 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:38 pm Yes thanks for the tip. But we are talking about nursing homes.
Well eldanielfire said elderly people and highlighted care homes as opposed to just specifying them.

I'm not sure where you're getting breaking the economy protecting care homes. Ring fencing them is more a social, not economic issue. It's protecting elderly in the community that is causing the economic damage.
I dunno what you're talking about. I started off by saying Sweden's numbers were overblown because a lot of people in nursing homes died and if Denmark went down the Swedish route, which it looks like they have now chosen to do, they wouldn't necessarily have to make the same mistakes as far as the nursing homes go.
Do you think countries that came out of lockdown once the R rate fell have gone down the Swedish route ?
Here's what Denmarks graph looks like right now, and their response has basically been, "f-ck it, we're not repeating another lockdown". So you put 2 plus 2 together. I didn't say they have historically used the Swedish strategy. I speculated that maybe, based upon their current predicament and what they are now saying, that they have chosen to do so now.

Image
No they haven't, their strategy is not the Swedish strategy because they didn't use it from the start, and there were benefits from the original "not Swedish strategy" which will help the strategy which you call the "Swedish strategy" moving forward.
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