It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Santa
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Santa »

Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:52 am
Clogs wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:43 am
koroke hangareka wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:21 am
Is that because your quality of life is expected to be lower and you're going to die soon anyway, so it's worth less effort to keep you alive? Or is it because the prognosis for the very old is noticeably worse even with successful treatment? For example deciding that subjecting an 87 year old to a 12 hour operation for bowel cancer might not be worthwhile if it's decided that it would be hugely traumatic for the patient and likely trigger a fatal heart attack even if the operation succeeded. On the other hand, earlier this year a 97 year old named Tony Vaccaro overcame Covid 19 and seems to have made a full recovery. I expect he received just as high a standard of care as anybody else.
Try this scenario. Hugely simplified but may go some way to explaining some of the rationale.

You are a doctor. You have 100 life saving pills left.
30 x 5 year olds present and need a pill.
30 x15 year olds present and need a pill.
30 x 30 year olds present and need a pill.
30 x 90 year olds present and need a pill.

Who gets pills?
All you are talking about is triage and the main reason for lockdown was so that countries didn't have to adopt triage decisions more common to a battlefield than a civilian hospital . Currently the UK have had about 44,000 covid deaths. If we hadn't gone into lockdown that figure would conservatively be 350,000 probably quite a bit higher.
Coronavirus: NHS doctors to be given guidelines to decide which victims go on ventilators

March 2020

Overwhelmed doctors will be given new guidelines to help them make life-or-death decisions about coronavirus victims if they run out of intensive care beds or ventilators.

The criteria – expected to be issued on Saturday – are a recognition that hospitals are likely to be faced with terrible choices in the weeks to come and cannot be expected to make them alone.

They will cover patients with conditions including respiratory disease, cancer, heart disease and diabetes, although it is unclear whether they will also set an age limit above which treatment could be withdrawn.

Potentially, it could also see a patient already on a ventilator removed to allow a someone with a greater chance of survival to take his or her place.
That is just not true.
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CM11
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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It's hard to quantify but it's highly unlikely the figure would have been hundreds of thousands in the UK without it.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:34 am It's hard to quantify but it's highly unlikely the figure would have been hundreds of thousands in the UK without it.
The models suggest it would have and if you compare the difference between Sweden and their neighbours and apply it to the UK that to a lockdown UK and one with no lockdown you get the same kind of numbers. But lets just say 100k. We are still talking an NHS system that would not have been able to cope.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:36 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:34 am It's hard to quantify but it's highly unlikely the figure would have been hundreds of thousands in the UK without it.
The models suggest it would have and if you compare the difference between Sweden and their neighbours and apply it to the UK that to a lockdown UK and one with no lockdown you get the same kind of numbers. But lets just say 100k. We are still talking an NHS system that would not have been able to cope.
The UK have more deaths per million than Sweden so not sure I get your point mentioning Sweden.

The models assume no one changes their behaviour and life goes on like pre covid. Even then I don't think they take into account the differences in transmission routes and risks (or lack of) to certain sectors of society.

300k is everyone in the country getting covid with an overall fatality rate of 0.5%.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Santa »

Why not just say we don't know, because we don't know.

The one thing we know would not have happened is nothing. So models based on no change are bollocks and only have value as a baseline against which to model reactions. Reporting no action model outputs as a counterfactual is rubbish.
Last edited by Santa on Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:36 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:34 am It's hard to quantify but it's highly unlikely the figure would have been hundreds of thousands in the UK without it.
The models suggest it would have and if you compare the difference between Sweden and their neighbours and apply it to the UK that to a lockdown UK and one with no lockdown you get the same kind of numbers. But lets just say 100k. We are still talking an NHS system that would not have been able to cope.
You can't make comparisons to Sweden. The reason for Sweden's high death toll has already been discussed and it does not appear to be their lack of lockdown. There are numerous other factors involved that may not apply to the UK. I've cited two scientific studies (and could easily cite more) that support this conclusion.

Regardless, if you do want to make comparisons, perhaps one you should consider is that the models were hysterically wrong making those types of predictions for Sweden. The science on all of this is in it's infancy, it's not conclusive and there is no consensus, so everything considered one should proceed with extreme caution when making guesstimates of what might have been.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:42 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:36 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:34 am It's hard to quantify but it's highly unlikely the figure would have been hundreds of thousands in the UK without it.
The models suggest it would have and if you compare the difference between Sweden and their neighbours and apply it to the UK that to a lockdown UK and one with no lockdown you get the same kind of numbers. But lets just say 100k. We are still talking an NHS system that would not have been able to cope.
The UK have more deaths per million than Sweden so not sure I get your point mentioning Sweden.

The models assume no one changes their behaviour and life goes on like pre covid. Even then I don't think they take into account the differences in transmission routes and risks (or lack of) to certain sectors of society.

300k is everyone in the country getting covid with an overall fatality rate of 0.5%.
.The two models I saw mentioned said over 500k. if the government took no action and when the government saw that they interduce lockdown.. For arguments sake lets stick to 100k . As i said the NHS would be overwhelmed

As for Sweden I wasn't comparing the UK to Sweden but the UK to a neighbour of Sweden as we were both in lockdown. However as I say lets just stick to 100k with no locked down. We would have been fucked

BTW Where did you get that mortality rate for the UK.

380k confirmed cases in the UK was 41k deaths. That's without the NHS being broken. So why would everyone in the country have to get it for 500k with a broken NHS
Last edited by Anonymous 1 on Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:24 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by bimboman »

Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:07 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:42 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:36 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:34 am It's hard to quantify but it's highly unlikely the figure would have been hundreds of thousands in the UK without it.
The models suggest it would have and if you compare the difference between Sweden and their neighbours and apply it to the UK that to a lockdown UK and one with no lockdown you get the same kind of numbers. But lets just say 100k. We are still talking an NHS system that would not have been able to cope.
The UK have more deaths per million than Sweden so not sure I get your point mentioning Sweden.

The models assume no one changes their behaviour and life goes on like pre covid. Even then I don't think they take into account the differences in transmission routes and risks (or lack of) to certain sectors of society.

300k is everyone in the country getting covid with an overall fatality rate of 0.5%.
.The two models I saw mentioned said over 500k. if the government took no action and when the government saw that they interduce lockdown.. For arguments sake lets stick to 100k . As i said the NHS would be overwhelmed

As for Sweden I wasn't comparing the UK to Sweden but the UK to a neighbour of Sweden as we were both in lockdown. However as I say lets just stick to 100k with no locked down. We would have been fucked


500k from Imperials modelling. It’s a joke.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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It's widely thought the overall mortality rate is 0.5%.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Sorry, fair that there's extra deaths in an overwhelmed system.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:46 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:36 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:34 am It's hard to quantify but it's highly unlikely the figure would have been hundreds of thousands in the UK without it.
The models suggest it would have and if you compare the difference between Sweden and their neighbours and apply it to the UK that to a lockdown UK and one with no lockdown you get the same kind of numbers. But lets just say 100k. We are still talking an NHS system that would not have been able to cope.
You can't make comparisons to Sweden. The reason for Sweden's high death toll has already been discussed and it does not appear to be their lack of lockdown. There are numerous other factors involved that may not apply to the UK. I've cited two scientific studies (and could easily cite more) that support this conclusion.

Regardless, if you do want to make comparisons, perhaps one you should consider is that the models were hysterically wrong making those types of predictions for Sweden. The science on all of this is in it's infancy, it's not conclusive and there is no consensus, so everything considered one should proceed with extreme caution when making guesstimates of what might have been.
And yet do that in the paragraph above
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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bimboman wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:15 am
500k from Imperials modelling. It’s a joke.
You'd think if Bimbo could see it, his government could too.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Clogs »

CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:57 pm It's widely thought the overall mortality rate is 0.5%.
And even that % is quite misleading. The % for those under the age of 20 is almost 0%. At 90 it is something ridiculous like 25-33%.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:23 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:57 pm It's widely thought the overall mortality rate is 0.5%.
And even that % is quite misleading. The % for those under the age of 20 is almost 0%. At 90 it is something ridiculous like 25-33%.
That's why I said overall. Clearly it's not related to the CFR, which is more weighted towards those more susceptible.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

Enzedder wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:01 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:46 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:36 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:34 am It's hard to quantify but it's highly unlikely the figure would have been hundreds of thousands in the UK without it.
The models suggest it would have and if you compare the difference between Sweden and their neighbours and apply it to the UK that to a lockdown UK and one with no lockdown you get the same kind of numbers. But lets just say 100k. We are still talking an NHS system that would not have been able to cope.
You can't make comparisons to Sweden. The reason for Sweden's high death toll has already been discussed and it does not appear to be their lack of lockdown. There are numerous other factors involved that may not apply to the UK. I've cited two scientific studies (and could easily cite more) that support this conclusion.

Regardless, if you do want to make comparisons, perhaps one you should consider is that the models were hysterically wrong making those types of predictions for Sweden. The science on all of this is in it's infancy, it's not conclusive and there is no consensus, so everything considered one should proceed with extreme caution when making guesstimates of what might have been.
And yet do that in the paragraph above
Yeah, fair enough. I suppose the reality is that nobody really knows.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Latest news:
Coronavirus: Sweden ‘has beaten coronavirus with herd immunity’
People walk on Stranvagen in Stockholm. Picture: AFP.
People walk on Stranvagen in Stockholm. Picture: AFP.
By BRUNO WATERFIELD
THE TIMES
12:55PM SEPTEMBER 22, 2020
31 COMMENTS
Evidence is mounting that Sweden has beaten the coronavirus with herd immunity rather than a lockdown, according to a renowned expert on the spread of disease.

Sweden’s infection rate has remained low and stable at a time when other European countries are facing a strong resurgence.

In Britain there are 69 cases per 100,000 people compared with 28 per 100,000 in Sweden, which did not implement strict lockdown measures in the northern spring. The infection rate in France is almost seven times higher than in Sweden, and in Spain ten times higher.

READ NEXT
Kim Sneppen, professor of biocomplexity at Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen, told the Politiken newspaper: “There is some evidence that the Swedes have built up a degree of immunity to the virus which, along with what else they are doing to stop the spread, is enough to control the disease.”

A recent study by the University of Stockholm has suggested that infection in 43 per cent of the population could be sufficient for herd immunity.

Others warn that it is too early to tell. “I don’t think it can already be ruled out that Sweden will also have a flare-up,” said Allan Randrup Thomsen, professor of virology at Aarhus University.

Sweden built its response around voluntary social distancing. Its economy shrank by 9 per cent in the first months of the pandemic, compared with 20 per cent in Britain.

The Times

Called it too soon again? When was the first post on this thread?

Edit It was from an article published on the 8th of September. 14 days later and still no noticeable rise in cases despite record testing... Maybe? Just maybe? A glimmer of hope for them?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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There is significant rise in cases in the other Nordic countries. If in coming weeks there is a huge rise in deaths from one or two a week for say Denmark things could look different. However with 690 deaths it would be some turnaround for them to look at 5800 Sweden with envy
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Anonymous 1 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:04 am There is significant rise in cases in the other Nordic countries. If in coming weeks there is a huge rise in deaths from one or two a week for say Denmark things could look different. However with 690 deaths it would be some turnaround for them to look at 5800 Sweden with envy
Lets hope like hell they have learnt from the Swedish fvck ups and do whatever they can to prevent the virus from getting into aged care facilities!
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Anonymous 1 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:04 am There is significant rise in cases in the other Nordic countries. If in coming weeks there is a huge rise in deaths from one or two a week for say Denmark things could look different. However with 690 deaths it would be some turnaround for them to look at 5800 Sweden with envy
You are of course correct in your statement that none of Sweden's neighbours would be envying her death count.

But it's not a good argument against the Swedish approach. I have already explained why simply counting death statistics is not a good measure of the effectiveness of the Swedish approach, and have supplied multiple scientific studies to back that (which is a bit neither here nor there since none of us are really qualified to understand them).

I think the truth is that we don't really know yet what the best way to respond to this pandemic might be. What we do know for sure is that the Swedish lack of a hard lockdown has not been the catastrophe gleefully predicted in some circles, this true despite the number of deaths in Sweden being higher than her neighbours. I'm sure if they could have a do-over, the Swedes would do some things differently, but I highly doubt a hard lockdown would be one of them.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:26 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:04 am There is significant rise in cases in the other Nordic countries. If in coming weeks there is a huge rise in deaths from one or two a week for say Denmark things could look different. However with 690 deaths it would be some turnaround for them to look at 5800 Sweden with envy
You are of course correct in your statement that none of Sweden's neighbours would be envying her death count.

But it's not a good argument against the Swedish approach. I have already explained why simply counting death statistics is not a good measure of the effectiveness of the Swedish approach, and have supplied multiple scientific studies to back that (which is a bit neither here nor there since none of us are really qualified to understand them).

I think the truth is that we don't really know yet what the best way to respond to this pandemic might be. What we do know for sure is that the Swedish lack of a hard lockdown has not been the catastrophe gleefully predicted in some circles, this true despite the number of deaths in Sweden being higher than her neighbours. I'm sure if they could have a do-over, the Swedes would do some things differently, but I highly doubt a hard lockdown would be one of them.
Will we be able to capture the excess deaths rate due to economic damage (& the knock-on effects of that) in the way that excess deaths have been shown as so obvious as a result of COVID? This particular aspect of the fallout will occur over a period of years so may become part of the statistical baseline rather than the outlier. I trust someone is looking into this, sure government statisticians must be. From 2021, excess deaths should probably be measured against a baseline that incorporates pre-COVID projections/trends of changing lifespan, etc. I guess there are other ongoing trends to correct for but I'm sure it could be done...
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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mabunch78 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:14 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:26 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:04 am There is significant rise in cases in the other Nordic countries. If in coming weeks there is a huge rise in deaths from one or two a week for say Denmark things could look different. However with 690 deaths it would be some turnaround for them to look at 5800 Sweden with envy
You are of course correct in your statement that none of Sweden's neighbours would be envying her death count.

But it's not a good argument against the Swedish approach. I have already explained why simply counting death statistics is not a good measure of the effectiveness of the Swedish approach, and have supplied multiple scientific studies to back that (which is a bit neither here nor there since none of us are really qualified to understand them).

I think the truth is that we don't really know yet what the best way to respond to this pandemic might be. What we do know for sure is that the Swedish lack of a hard lockdown has not been the catastrophe gleefully predicted in some circles, this true despite the number of deaths in Sweden being higher than her neighbours. I'm sure if they could have a do-over, the Swedes would do some things differently, but I highly doubt a hard lockdown would be one of them.
Will we be able to capture the excess deaths rate due to economic damage (& the knock-on effects of that) in the way that excess deaths have been shown as so obvious as a result of COVID? This particular aspect of the fallout will occur over a period of years so may become part of the statistical baseline rather than the outlier. I trust someone is looking into this, sure government statisticians must be. From 2021, excess deaths should probably be measured against a baseline that incorporates pre-COVID projections/trends of changing lifespan, etc. I guess there are other ongoing trends to correct for but I'm sure it could be done...
I suspect there wont be 'excess deaths' for some time to come. In fact I suspect next year may see below normal deaths. This is largely due to there being more deaths this year. Feast famine stuff.



And now we just have to wait for a moron to attempt to ridicule this post of mine without adding anything of substance to the thread.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Clogs wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:08 am
mabunch78 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:14 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:26 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:04 am There is significant rise in cases in the other Nordic countries. If in coming weeks there is a huge rise in deaths from one or two a week for say Denmark things could look different. However with 690 deaths it would be some turnaround for them to look at 5800 Sweden with envy
You are of course correct in your statement that none of Sweden's neighbours would be envying her death count.

But it's not a good argument against the Swedish approach. I have already explained why simply counting death statistics is not a good measure of the effectiveness of the Swedish approach, and have supplied multiple scientific studies to back that (which is a bit neither here nor there since none of us are really qualified to understand them).

I think the truth is that we don't really know yet what the best way to respond to this pandemic might be. What we do know for sure is that the Swedish lack of a hard lockdown has not been the catastrophe gleefully predicted in some circles, this true despite the number of deaths in Sweden being higher than her neighbours. I'm sure if they could have a do-over, the Swedes would do some things differently, but I highly doubt a hard lockdown would be one of them.
Will we be able to capture the excess deaths rate due to economic damage (& the knock-on effects of that) in the way that excess deaths have been shown as so obvious as a result of COVID? This particular aspect of the fallout will occur over a period of years so may become part of the statistical baseline rather than the outlier. I trust someone is looking into this, sure government statisticians must be. From 2021, excess deaths should probably be measured against a baseline that incorporates pre-COVID projections/trends of changing lifespan, etc. I guess there are other ongoing trends to correct for but I'm sure it could be done...
I suspect there wont be 'excess deaths' for some time to come. In fact I suspect next year may see below normal deaths. This is largely due to there being more deaths this year. Feast famine stuff.



And now we just have to wait for a moron to attempt to ridicule this post of mine without adding anything of substance to the thread.
Best I could do at short notice. It's rude to keep you waiting...

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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Santa »

Clogs wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:08 am
mabunch78 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:14 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:26 am
Anonymous 1 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:04 am There is significant rise in cases in the other Nordic countries. If in coming weeks there is a huge rise in deaths from one or two a week for say Denmark things could look different. However with 690 deaths it would be some turnaround for them to look at 5800 Sweden with envy
You are of course correct in your statement that none of Sweden's neighbours would be envying her death count.

But it's not a good argument against the Swedish approach. I have already explained why simply counting death statistics is not a good measure of the effectiveness of the Swedish approach, and have supplied multiple scientific studies to back that (which is a bit neither here nor there since none of us are really qualified to understand them).

I think the truth is that we don't really know yet what the best way to respond to this pandemic might be. What we do know for sure is that the Swedish lack of a hard lockdown has not been the catastrophe gleefully predicted in some circles, this true despite the number of deaths in Sweden being higher than her neighbours. I'm sure if they could have a do-over, the Swedes would do some things differently, but I highly doubt a hard lockdown would be one of them.
Will we be able to capture the excess deaths rate due to economic damage (& the knock-on effects of that) in the way that excess deaths have been shown as so obvious as a result of COVID? This particular aspect of the fallout will occur over a period of years so may become part of the statistical baseline rather than the outlier. I trust someone is looking into this, sure government statisticians must be. From 2021, excess deaths should probably be measured against a baseline that incorporates pre-COVID projections/trends of changing lifespan, etc. I guess there are other ongoing trends to correct for but I'm sure it could be done...
I suspect there wont be 'excess deaths' for some time to come. In fact I suspect next year may see below normal deaths. This is largely due to there being more deaths this year. Feast famine stuff.



And now we just have to wait for a moron to attempt to ridicule this post of mine without adding anything of substance to the thread.
I suspect the same. I think the 5 year average annual death rate might be pretty flat for the next few years.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Enzedder »

I suspect the same. I think the 5 year average annual death rate might be pretty flat for the next few years.
In Western countries maybe but I think the Brazils, Mexicos, Indonesias, Indias etc will not
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Santa »

Enzedder wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:10 am
I suspect the same. I think the 5 year average annual death rate might be pretty flat for the next few years.
In Western countries maybe but I think the Brazils, Mexicos, Indonesias, Indias etc will not
Quite possible.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by bimboman »

Santa wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:27 am
Enzedder wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:10 am
I suspect the same. I think the 5 year average annual death rate might be pretty flat for the next few years.
In Western countries maybe but I think the Brazils, Mexicos, Indonesias, Indias etc will not
Quite possible.


I bet they’re flat over 5 years. The deaths though bad aren’t statistically relevant yet.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by MungoMan »

Clogs wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:23 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:57 pm It's widely thought the overall mortality rate is 0.5%.
And even that % is quite misleading. The % for those under the age of 20 is almost 0%. At 90 it is something ridiculous like 25-33%.
It’s only misleading if you don’t read all the words.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Santa »

bimboman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:28 am
Santa wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:27 am
Enzedder wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:10 am
I suspect the same. I think the 5 year average annual death rate might be pretty flat for the next few years.
In Western countries maybe but I think the Brazils, Mexicos, Indonesias, Indias etc will not
Quite possible.


I bet they’re flat over 5 years. The deaths though bad aren’t statistically relevant yet.
If one person dies of anything that is one too many.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Clogs »

MungoMan wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:02 am
Clogs wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:23 am
CM11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:57 pm It's widely thought the overall mortality rate is 0.5%.
And even that % is quite misleading. The % for those under the age of 20 is almost 0%. At 90 it is something ridiculous like 25-33%.
It’s only misleading if you don’t read all the words.

Well if I was 90 and read all the words I would think, meh, it doesn't sound all that bad. Overall it is only 0.5% mortality.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Ali's Choice »

This is some Grade 1 trolling by Clogs. Australia's economy reduced by less than Sweden's in the June quarter (7% drop compared to 8.3% drop) and their death rate is 16 times higher than our's. So their lax restrictions resulted in a weaker economy and 16 times more deaths.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:55 am This is some Grade 1 trolling by Clogs. Australia's economy reduced by less than Sweden's in the June quarter (7% drop compared to 8.3% drop) and their death rate is 16 times higher than our's. So their lax restrictions resulted in a weaker economy and 16 times more deaths.
I must be so deep in your head that you have to follow me around like this. So very deep. :nod:
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eldanielfire
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by eldanielfire »

Ali's Choice wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:55 am This is some Grade 1 trolling by Clogs. Australia's economy reduced by less than Sweden's in the June quarter (7% drop compared to 8.3% drop) and their death rate is 16 times higher than our's. So their lax restrictions resulted in a weaker economy and 16 times more deaths.
In terms of trolling it's been mentioned that the integrated nature and close proximity of Europe means death rates with all the same actions would be a higher death rate anyway. I don't think a geographical piece of good fortune is something to be celebrated or boast about here or used as some sort of measure of policy success.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Ali's Choice »

eldanielfire wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:45 am In terms of trolling it's been mentioned that the integrated nature and close proximity of Europe means death rates with all the same actions would be a higher death rate anyway. I don't think a geographical piece of good fortune is something to be celebrated or boast about here or used as some sort of measure of policy success.
So what's the point of starting a thread like this if no-one from outside Europe can post on it?

Moreover, Melbourne has had a genuine 2nd wave. It was recording 700+ new cases per day just months ago. That's down to 14 cases today, thanks only to extremely onerous restrictions that the state govt put in place - not the "geographical piece of good fortune" that you arrogantly and condescendingly refer to.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Santa »

eldanielfire wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:45 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:55 am This is some Grade 1 trolling by Clogs. Australia's economy reduced by less than Sweden's in the June quarter (7% drop compared to 8.3% drop) and their death rate is 16 times higher than our's. So their lax restrictions resulted in a weaker economy and 16 times more deaths.
In terms of trolling it's been mentioned that the integrated nature and close proximity of Europe means death rates with all the same actions would be a higher death rate anyway. I don't think a geographical piece of good fortune is something to be celebrated or boast about here or used as some sort of measure of policy success.
There was a stupid article on a NZ website the other day that went along the lines of what can the world learn about a covid response from New Zealand and Iceland.
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Clogs
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Clogs »

eldanielfire wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:45 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:55 am This is some Grade 1 trolling by Clogs. Australia's economy reduced by less than Sweden's in the June quarter (7% drop compared to 8.3% drop) and their death rate is 16 times higher than our's. So their lax restrictions resulted in a weaker economy and 16 times more deaths.
In terms of trolling it's been mentioned that the integrated nature and close proximity of Europe means death rates with all the same actions would be a higher death rate anyway. I don't think a geographical piece of good fortune is something to be celebrated or boast about here or used as some sort of measure of policy success.

It's probably best not to engage the troll. This guy trying desperately to engage me in an argument based on his facts. Blithely ignoring the million plus Australians that are out of a job. All of which means there is still a lot more pain to go. Like New Zealands economic pain. Ands as everyone has said this is a marathon not a sprint. Declaring Australia as champions over Sweden based on a quarter of the year as a unit of measure shows how desperate he is to engage.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Ali's Choice »

Clogs wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:21 am Declaring Australia as champions over Sweden based on a quarter of the year as a unit of measure shows how desperate he is to engage.
I'm not declaring anyone is the champion of anything. That's your language in the OP. I just pointed out that in the last financial quarter Australia performed better economically and in terms of health outcomes than Fiji. If you are going to start troll threads like this, why are you so offended when people reply? Isn't that the whole point of your trolling, to get reactions?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

Not looking so good for Sweden afterall.... :?

https://www.thelocal.se/20200925/we-are ... rs-tegnell
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by TheFrog »

Just checking on this thread.

What I find interesting is that the Sweeden curves (deaths or contaminations) have the same shape as those of other European countries that have gone into full lock down. This actually makes me believe that full lockdown may not be much more efficient than simple social distancing and mask wearing measures. The summer flat curve seeks to confirm that being able to spend time outside slows down the spread but that now, with autumn coming and worse days, people are regathering (in particular in schools but also back to the cities from the countryside, spending more time inside) and the epidemic is picking up again.

So does Sweeden demonstrate that life without lockdown is a possibility without catastrophic results?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

TheFrog wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:25 pm So does Sweeden demonstrate that life without lockdown is a possibility without catastrophic results?
I think that much is beyond doubt at this stage.

There are a couple of other things discussed in the thread you may have missed, but it seems that the lack of a lockdown in Sweden is actually a minor reason for our higher death-rate. There have been several studies done on this.

Yes, Sweden has a regrettably high death-rate compared to her neighbours, but that is due to both unique circumstance and mistakes they made unrelated to not forcing a hard lockdown. At least the evidence is pointing that way at this time.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by TheFrog »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:33 pm
TheFrog wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:25 pm So does Sweeden demonstrate that life without lockdown is a possibility without catastrophic results?
I think that much is beyond doubt at this stage.

There are a couple of other things discussed in the thread you may have missed, but it seems that the lack of a lockdown in Sweden is actually a minor reason for our higher death-rate. There have been several studies done on this.

Yes, Sweden has a regrettably high death-rate compared to her neighbours, but that is due to both unique circumstance and mistakes they made unrelated to not forcing a hard lockdown. At least the evidence is pointing that way at this time.
I have seen that Sweeden has one of the worst number of deaths / million habitants in Europe indeed, on a par with countries hard hit like Italy, but I wonder if an analysis of the population age breakdown has been done to put this into perspective. I would expect a country with an older population to have suffered more deaths than a country with a young population. This type of analysis should help fine tune the evaluation of the response to the epidemic in a given country.
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