It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:14 am Sweden could have hit this out of the ballpark if they'd managed to shield older people better.
Well ... maybe. It's too early to tell. My argument all along has basically been that it hasn't been a catastrophe, as some foreign journalists seemed eager to paint it, and that a hard-lock down--at least an extended one--may not be as necessary as many obviously believe, let alone draconian laws.

The problem is now that it seems many Swedes are getting a little bit too relaxed, and at the worst time--going into a long, cold winter--at that. I'm worried about the possibility of those two things creating a perfect storm and proving the naysayers totally correct (at least superficially) when that needn't be the case. It could easily happen.

What I hope happens is that we actually see some positives - a decrease in common colds and flus and a level of covid-immunity in the general population that delivers a rather mild winter-bump as opposed to a sky-rocketing one we're already seeing in some other places. But that's wishful thinking at this stage.

This is turning into a long post, but that just reminded me of something else I wanted to mention in this thread - that, given that lockdowns, social distancing and other covid-precautions result in less colds and flus, how is that going to effect us in the future? It sounds great for one year, but it creates a "dry tinder" effect (one of the theorised reasons for Sweden's less than stellar covid statistics: we had a very light cold & flu season last year, compared to our neighbours). How does that play out in the future? Less cold and flu immunity? More deadly flu seasons? It's obviously all very complex, I'm sure the actual real experts are thinking about all of this (and I'm sure Tegnell more than maybe some others).
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:35 am
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:14 am Sweden could have hit this out of the ballpark if they'd managed to shield older people better.
Well ... maybe. It's too early to tell. My argument all along has basically been that it hasn't been a catastrophe, as some foreign journalists seemed eager to paint it, and that a hard-lock down--at least an extended one--may not be as necessary as many obviously believe, let alone draconian laws.

The problem is now that it seems many Swedes are getting a little bit too relaxed, and at the worst time--going into a long, cold winter--at that. I'm worried about the possibility of those two things creating a perfect storm and proving the naysayers totally correct (at least superficially) when that needn't be the case. It could easily happen.

What I hope happens is that we actually see some positives - a decrease in common colds and flus and a level of covid-immunity in the general population that delivers a rather mild winter-bump as opposed to a sky-rocketing one we're already seeing in some other places. But that's wishful thinking at this stage.

This is turning into a long post, but that just reminded me of something else I wanted to mention in this thread - that, given that lockdowns, social distancing and other covid-precautions result in less colds and flus, how is that going to effect us in the future? It sounds great for one year, but it creates a "dry tinder" effect (one of the theorised reasons for Sweden's less than stellar covid statistics: we had a very light cold & flu season last year, compared to our neighbours). How does that play out in the future? Less cold and flu immunity? More deadly flu seasons? It's obviously all very complex, I'm sure the actual real experts are thinking about all of this (and I'm sure Tegnell more than maybe some others).
Certainly some of the justifications for the UK regulations was that an issue is over time people stop complying with the rules.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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eldanielfire wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:29 am
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:14 am Sweden could have hit this out of the ballpark if they'd managed to shield older people better.
That's what many of us are saying. Though I'm not sure "Out the ball park" is quite what I'd say. They would basically be Finland and Norway.
Did Finland and Norway not have lockdowns?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Anonymous 1 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected and it's the same story across the northern hemisphere.
Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:06 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Oh I get it. Well, like I said at the top of the page, I wasn't claiming Sweden as "winners" -- and I've pointed out repeatedly the OP article is junk science from a junk source. My argument is that it simply has not been the catastrophe so gleefully predicted by those that did or are still in hard lock-downs. People are so tribal and silly they start identifying with their countries lockdown policies. :roll:

Sweden has done some things wrong but the lack of a lockdown doesn't seem to be one of them. Something that maybe other countries should learn from.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Anonymous 1 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?


Cases.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by CM11 »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:06 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected and it's the same story across the northern hemisphere.
Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
Last edited by CM11 on Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by towny »

Swedes also couldn’t travel outside the country - that must have something to do with it.

Sweden isn’t taking this too seriously any more. Grandparents are dropping kids off at daycare and the pubs are open and full.

Can’t help but think Sweden will have big numbers by November.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:47 pm Swedes also couldn’t travel outside the country - that must have something to do with it.

Sweden isn’t taking this too seriously any more. Grandparents are dropping kids off at daycare and the pubs are open and full.

Can’t help but think Sweden will have big numbers by November.


Cases or deaths ?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:37 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:06 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected and it's the same story across the northern hemisphere.
Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

bimboman wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:09 pm Cases or deaths ?
Not that I'd f-cking know, but I'm going to go out on a layman's limb and say cases. The death rate has remained steadily low despite rising case numbers all over the place, not just Sweden. There's reason to hope we're well past the most deadly stage.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Not really Mog, check out the graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:29 pm Not really Mog, check out the graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
:?:

"Daily New Cases" from the end of June to the start of August ... I'd call that more than a slight dip ...
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:31 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:29 pm Not really Mog, check out the graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
:?:

"Daily New Cases" from the end of June to the start of August ... I'd call that more than a slight dip ...
15 serious. 15
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:31 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:29 pm Not really Mog, check out the graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
:?:

"Daily New Cases" from the end of June to the start of August ... I'd call that more than a slight dip ...
There is no dip in the graph, just an alteration of trajectory. Nearly 10k cases in July.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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EverReady wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:33 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:31 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:29 pm Not really Mog, check out the graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
:?:

"Daily New Cases" from the end of June to the start of August ... I'd call that more than a slight dip ...
15 serious. 15
Having had nearly 3k through ICU. Might even be over that, haven't checked in ages.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

You guys are going to have to explain. I must admit to being lost here. I guess this is the danger with laymen interpreting complex data, but it looks to me it went from ~1600 to ~100 daily new cases in a month.
Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog, the 7 day average does get to its lowest in July but still at 180, compared to other countries which got it to single figures on a like for like.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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OK, Mog, angle the line down a bit was inaccurate. Yes, it came down a fair bit but my point was that it never got to suppression levels. At no stage did the linear graph ever look close to flat.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:38 pm Mog, the 7 day average does get to its lowest in July but still at 180, compared to other countries which got it to single figures on a like for like.
I'm failing to get the point here. Yes, we all know Sweden has a worse case of coronavirus. But I don't see how that anything happened over summer other than a plummeting in cases (with increased testing, fwiw). I'm not trying to start a shit fight here, I don't know what I'm looking at, I'm not a viral statistician, I just don't understand your point.

In any case, there's other things to consider here. One of them might be--again layman speculating--that rising cases with a lowering death rate might actually be seen as a good thing. More immunity at lower cost, right? Note, I don't believe that phenomenon is unique to Sweden.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by EverReady »

CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:35 pm
EverReady wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:33 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:31 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:29 pm Not really Mog, check out the graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
:?:

"Daily New Cases" from the end of June to the start of August ... I'd call that more than a slight dip ...
15 serious. 15
Having had nearly 3k through ICU. Might even be over that, haven't checked in ages.
They currently have 62k infections and 15 serious. Thems are the facts
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by towny »

bimboman wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:09 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:47 pm Swedes also couldn’t travel outside the country - that must have something to do with it.

Sweden isn’t taking this too seriously any more. Grandparents are dropping kids off at daycare and the pubs are open and full.

Can’t help but think Sweden will have big numbers by November.
Both


Cases or deaths ?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by bimboman »

EverReady wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:42 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:35 pm
EverReady wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:33 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:31 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:29 pm Not really Mog, check out the graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
:?:

"Daily New Cases" from the end of June to the start of August ... I'd call that more than a slight dip ...
15 serious. 15
Having had nearly 3k through ICU. Might even be over that, haven't checked in ages.
They currently have 62k infections and 15 serious. Thems are the facts


How many flu deaths daily ?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by EverReady »

Just looking at a random year on a Google and it was 1000 in the winter 2011-2012
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by towny »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:37 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:06 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected and it's the same story across the northern hemisphere.
Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by bimboman »

towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:43 pm
bimboman wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:09 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:47 pm Swedes also couldn’t travel outside the country - that must have something to do with it.

Sweden isn’t taking this too seriously any more. Grandparents are dropping kids off at daycare and the pubs are open and full.

Can’t help but think Sweden will have big numbers by November.
Both


Cases or deaths ?


What is going to be considered “big numbers” of deaths? Nothing points to that yet.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by EverReady »

Looking now it is generally between 500-1000 deaths del being on how severe a year it is. They appear to be accurate figures but I wouldn't be convinced by the Irish in previous years
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by bimboman »

EverReady wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm Just looking at a random year on a Google and it was 1000 in the winter 2011-2012

Thankyou.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:37 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:06 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected and it's the same story across the northern hemisphere.
Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. Although it's only half the story.

It should also be noted that this has occurred without a lock-down, and--for whatever reason--to a more significant extent than it did in many other countries, and that even though not "herd immunity", a higher level of immunity within the general population is probably also a contributing factor. Possibly (probably?) a big one.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by CM11 »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:42 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:38 pm Mog, the 7 day average does get to its lowest in July but still at 180, compared to other countries which got it to single figures on a like for like.
I'm failing to get the point here. Yes, we all know Sweden has a worse case of coronavirus. But I don't see how that anything happened over summer other than a plummeting in cases (with increased testing, fwiw). I'm not trying to start a shit fight here, I don't know what I'm looking at, I'm not a viral statistician, I just don't understand your point.

In any case, there's other things to consider here. One of them might be--again layman speculating--that rising cases with a lowering death rate might actually be seen as a good thing. More immunity at lower cost, right? Note, I don't believe that phenomenon is unique to Sweden.
My point, if you care to look up, was a positive one in Sweden's favour. I was basically saying that living with the virus has, eh, given them the ability to continue living with it whereas other places never tried and after all but suppressing it, became fatigued and stopped even attempting to follow the rules.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:14 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:42 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:38 pm Mog, the 7 day average does get to its lowest in July but still at 180, compared to other countries which got it to single figures on a like for like.
I'm failing to get the point here. Yes, we all know Sweden has a worse case of coronavirus. But I don't see how that anything happened over summer other than a plummeting in cases (with increased testing, fwiw). I'm not trying to start a shit fight here, I don't know what I'm looking at, I'm not a viral statistician, I just don't understand your point.

In any case, there's other things to consider here. One of them might be--again layman speculating--that rising cases with a lowering death rate might actually be seen as a good thing. More immunity at lower cost, right? Note, I don't believe that phenomenon is unique to Sweden.
My point, if you care to look up, was a positive one in Sweden's favour. I was basically saying that living with the virus has, eh, given them the ability to continue living with it whereas other places never tried and after all but suppressing it, became fatigued and stopped even attempting to follow the rules.
To be fair, I think that's happening in Sweden too, and as you rightly point out, we're coming from a much worse place. So :?

It's still positive that the death rate has plummeted despite rising cases and testing, that suggests atleast that we are (all) out of the most deadly phase. Fingers crossed.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by CM11 »

I don't understand why people say 'despite increased testing' when it comes to the fatalities. The whole point is that the case fatality rate will fall with increased testing.

Fair enough on the Swedes also giving up. We'll see what happens then.
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Mog The Almighty
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:20 pm I don't understand why people say 'despite increased testing' when it comes to the fatalities. The whole point is that the case fatality rate will fall with increased testing.

Fair enough on the Swedes also giving up. We'll see what happens then.
The way I reasoned it--which may well be squirly--is that increased testing = increased cases being reported. So even though there's more cases being identified and reported, there's less people dying.

Actually as I type this I think you're right, I think it's just the wrong way to analyze it. One, because the cases are still lower than what they were even despite increased testing, and two because at the height of the pandemic you were only really tested if you were sick enough to be hospitalized (i.e. a far increased chance of dying) ... I'm confusing myself now. As you were.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by towny »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:06 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:37 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:06 pm
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected and it's the same story across the northern hemisphere.
Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. Although it's only half the story.

It should also be noted that this has occurred without a lock-down, and--for whatever reason--to a more significant extent than it did in many other countries, and that even though not "herd immunity", a higher level of immunity within the general population is probably also a contributing factor. Possibly (probably?) a big one.
I don’t know about herd immunity - think there are easier ways to explain it, but let’s see how we go once it gets cold and wet.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by towny »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:28 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:20 pm I don't understand why people say 'despite increased testing' when it comes to the fatalities. The whole point is that the case fatality rate will fall with increased testing.

Fair enough on the Swedes also giving up. We'll see what happens then.
The way I reasoned it--which may well be squirly--is that increased testing = increased cases being reported. So even though there's more cases being identified and reported, there's less people dying.

Actually as I type this I think you're right, I think it's just the wrong way to analyze it. One, because the cases are still lower than what they were even despite increased testing, and two because at the height of the pandemic you were only really tested if you were sick enough to be hospitalized (i.e. a far increased chance of dying) ... I'm confusing myself now. As you were.
I know a handful of people that have been tested. Most people just stay home (FOR ONLY A FEW DAYS!!!!!) when they get sick. Most don’t bother to go in and get tested.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:16 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:06 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:37 pm

Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. Although it's only half the story.

It should also be noted that this has occurred without a lock-down, and--for whatever reason--to a more significant extent than it did in many other countries, and that even though not "herd immunity", a higher level of immunity within the general population is probably also a contributing factor. Possibly (probably?) a big one.
I don’t know about herd immunity - think there are easier ways to explain it, but let’s see how we go once it gets cold and wet.
Fair enough ... just a note, I didn't mean "herd immunity", that requires a huge percent of the population to have been infected. I just meant some community immunity. Enough to make a difference. I believe the experts say herd immunity requires an infection rate of about 60-70% and although last estimates of Sweden's is rather high, it's still not close to that at about 22%.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by CM11 »

Some observers believe that a combination of cross immunity and social factors mean you'll see a very decent herd immunity effect well below 60/70%. Fingers crossed.

Where have you seen 22% for Sweden, btw?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by towny »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:53 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:16 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:06 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. Although it's only half the story.

It should also be noted that this has occurred without a lock-down, and--for whatever reason--to a more significant extent than it did in many other countries, and that even though not "herd immunity", a higher level of immunity within the general population is probably also a contributing factor. Possibly (probably?) a big one.
I don’t know about herd immunity - think there are easier ways to explain it, but let’s see how we go once it gets cold and wet.
Fair enough ... just a note, I didn't mean "herd immunity", that requires a huge percent of the population to have been infected. I just meant some community immunity. Enough to make a difference. I believe the experts say herd immunity requires an infection rate of about 60-70% and although last estimates of Sweden's is rather high, it's still not close to that at about 22%.
I think that might be the rate in Stockholm, but it can’t be that nationally. For example, it wouldn’t likely be as much as 5% in the city I live - Stockholm and Malmo seem to have taken the brunt.

Is it because they have large public transport systems or is there a cultural rationale? My workplace encouraged people to stay home and has managed it really well, but we’ve seen it appear and then be eliminated in the factory without closing up once. There’s too much we don’t know to explain it.
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