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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:35 pm
by CM11
EverReady wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:33 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:31 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:29 pm Not really Mog, check out the graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
:?:

"Daily New Cases" from the end of June to the start of August ... I'd call that more than a slight dip ...
15 serious. 15
Having had nearly 3k through ICU. Might even be over that, haven't checked in ages.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:38 pm
by Mog The Almighty
You guys are going to have to explain. I must admit to being lost here. I guess this is the danger with laymen interpreting complex data, but it looks to me it went from ~1600 to ~100 daily new cases in a month.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:38 pm
by CM11
Mog, the 7 day average does get to its lowest in July but still at 180, compared to other countries which got it to single figures on a like for like.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:40 pm
by CM11
OK, Mog, angle the line down a bit was inaccurate. Yes, it came down a fair bit but my point was that it never got to suppression levels. At no stage did the linear graph ever look close to flat.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:42 pm
by Mog The Almighty
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:38 pm Mog, the 7 day average does get to its lowest in July but still at 180, compared to other countries which got it to single figures on a like for like.
I'm failing to get the point here. Yes, we all know Sweden has a worse case of coronavirus. But I don't see how that anything happened over summer other than a plummeting in cases (with increased testing, fwiw). I'm not trying to start a shit fight here, I don't know what I'm looking at, I'm not a viral statistician, I just don't understand your point.

In any case, there's other things to consider here. One of them might be--again layman speculating--that rising cases with a lowering death rate might actually be seen as a good thing. More immunity at lower cost, right? Note, I don't believe that phenomenon is unique to Sweden.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:43 pm
by towny
bimboman wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:09 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:47 pm Swedes also couldn’t travel outside the country - that must have something to do with it.

Sweden isn’t taking this too seriously any more. Grandparents are dropping kids off at daycare and the pubs are open and full.

Can’t help but think Sweden will have big numbers by November.
Both


Cases or deaths ?

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:44 pm
by bimboman
EverReady wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:42 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:35 pm
EverReady wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:33 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:31 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:29 pm Not really Mog, check out the graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
:?:

"Daily New Cases" from the end of June to the start of August ... I'd call that more than a slight dip ...
15 serious. 15
Having had nearly 3k through ICU. Might even be over that, haven't checked in ages.
They currently have 62k infections and 15 serious. Thems are the facts


How many flu deaths daily ?

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm
by towny
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:37 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:06 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected and it's the same story across the northern hemisphere.
Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:51 pm
by bimboman
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:43 pm
bimboman wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:09 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:47 pm Swedes also couldn’t travel outside the country - that must have something to do with it.

Sweden isn’t taking this too seriously any more. Grandparents are dropping kids off at daycare and the pubs are open and full.

Can’t help but think Sweden will have big numbers by November.
Both


Cases or deaths ?


What is going to be considered “big numbers” of deaths? Nothing points to that yet.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:52 pm
by bimboman
EverReady wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm Just looking at a random year on a Google and it was 1000 in the winter 2011-2012

Thankyou.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:06 pm
by Mog The Almighty
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:37 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:06 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:33 pm I see Sweden has just recorded it's highest number of new daily cases since the 3rd of July. Does this mean the chicken dinner is going back in the warming draw ?
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected and it's the same story across the northern hemisphere.
Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. Although it's only half the story.

It should also be noted that this has occurred without a lock-down, and--for whatever reason--to a more significant extent than it did in many other countries, and that even though not "herd immunity", a higher level of immunity within the general population is probably also a contributing factor. Possibly (probably?) a big one.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:14 pm
by CM11
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:42 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:38 pm Mog, the 7 day average does get to its lowest in July but still at 180, compared to other countries which got it to single figures on a like for like.
I'm failing to get the point here. Yes, we all know Sweden has a worse case of coronavirus. But I don't see how that anything happened over summer other than a plummeting in cases (with increased testing, fwiw). I'm not trying to start a shit fight here, I don't know what I'm looking at, I'm not a viral statistician, I just don't understand your point.

In any case, there's other things to consider here. One of them might be--again layman speculating--that rising cases with a lowering death rate might actually be seen as a good thing. More immunity at lower cost, right? Note, I don't believe that phenomenon is unique to Sweden.
My point, if you care to look up, was a positive one in Sweden's favour. I was basically saying that living with the virus has, eh, given them the ability to continue living with it whereas other places never tried and after all but suppressing it, became fatigued and stopped even attempting to follow the rules.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:17 pm
by Mog The Almighty
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:14 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:42 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:38 pm Mog, the 7 day average does get to its lowest in July but still at 180, compared to other countries which got it to single figures on a like for like.
I'm failing to get the point here. Yes, we all know Sweden has a worse case of coronavirus. But I don't see how that anything happened over summer other than a plummeting in cases (with increased testing, fwiw). I'm not trying to start a shit fight here, I don't know what I'm looking at, I'm not a viral statistician, I just don't understand your point.

In any case, there's other things to consider here. One of them might be--again layman speculating--that rising cases with a lowering death rate might actually be seen as a good thing. More immunity at lower cost, right? Note, I don't believe that phenomenon is unique to Sweden.
My point, if you care to look up, was a positive one in Sweden's favour. I was basically saying that living with the virus has, eh, given them the ability to continue living with it whereas other places never tried and after all but suppressing it, became fatigued and stopped even attempting to follow the rules.
To be fair, I think that's happening in Sweden too, and as you rightly point out, we're coming from a much worse place. So :?

It's still positive that the death rate has plummeted despite rising cases and testing, that suggests atleast that we are (all) out of the most deadly phase. Fingers crossed.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:20 pm
by CM11
I don't understand why people say 'despite increased testing' when it comes to the fatalities. The whole point is that the case fatality rate will fall with increased testing.

Fair enough on the Swedes also giving up. We'll see what happens then.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:28 pm
by Mog The Almighty
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:20 pm I don't understand why people say 'despite increased testing' when it comes to the fatalities. The whole point is that the case fatality rate will fall with increased testing.

Fair enough on the Swedes also giving up. We'll see what happens then.
The way I reasoned it--which may well be squirly--is that increased testing = increased cases being reported. So even though there's more cases being identified and reported, there's less people dying.

Actually as I type this I think you're right, I think it's just the wrong way to analyze it. One, because the cases are still lower than what they were even despite increased testing, and two because at the height of the pandemic you were only really tested if you were sick enough to be hospitalized (i.e. a far increased chance of dying) ... I'm confusing myself now. As you were.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:16 pm
by towny
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:06 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:37 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:06 pm
I don't know what that saying means, but there's been an upwards trend in Sweden for over the past week, it's well known and widely reported. It's just nowhere near as significant as other places. At least, not yet. We are entering the cold and flu season in Europe now, so it was also widely expected and it's the same story across the northern hemisphere.
Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. Although it's only half the story.

It should also be noted that this has occurred without a lock-down, and--for whatever reason--to a more significant extent than it did in many other countries, and that even though not "herd immunity", a higher level of immunity within the general population is probably also a contributing factor. Possibly (probably?) a big one.
I don’t know about herd immunity - think there are easier ways to explain it, but let’s see how we go once it gets cold and wet.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:18 pm
by towny
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:28 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:20 pm I don't understand why people say 'despite increased testing' when it comes to the fatalities. The whole point is that the case fatality rate will fall with increased testing.

Fair enough on the Swedes also giving up. We'll see what happens then.
The way I reasoned it--which may well be squirly--is that increased testing = increased cases being reported. So even though there's more cases being identified and reported, there's less people dying.

Actually as I type this I think you're right, I think it's just the wrong way to analyze it. One, because the cases are still lower than what they were even despite increased testing, and two because at the height of the pandemic you were only really tested if you were sick enough to be hospitalized (i.e. a far increased chance of dying) ... I'm confusing myself now. As you were.
I know a handful of people that have been tested. Most people just stay home (FOR ONLY A FEW DAYS!!!!!) when they get sick. Most don’t bother to go in and get tested.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:53 pm
by Mog The Almighty
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:16 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:06 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
CM11 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:37 pm

Sweden never got to the bottom so it's not the same as elsewhere on a like for like.

The benefit of the Swedish approach is that it's been a steady 'curve' throughout, although they did angle the line down a bit over the summer. This means they never got to the 'it's over' stage and since they were given enough freedom not to go batshit there's less fatigue over the restrictions (my opinion, happy to be corrected) so the 'curve' seems to be remaining steady enough. We'll know more in a few weeks.

Pity about the start though.
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. Although it's only half the story.

It should also be noted that this has occurred without a lock-down, and--for whatever reason--to a more significant extent than it did in many other countries, and that even though not "herd immunity", a higher level of immunity within the general population is probably also a contributing factor. Possibly (probably?) a big one.
I don’t know about herd immunity - think there are easier ways to explain it, but let’s see how we go once it gets cold and wet.
Fair enough ... just a note, I didn't mean "herd immunity", that requires a huge percent of the population to have been infected. I just meant some community immunity. Enough to make a difference. I believe the experts say herd immunity requires an infection rate of about 60-70% and although last estimates of Sweden's is rather high, it's still not close to that at about 22%.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:11 pm
by CM11
Some observers believe that a combination of cross immunity and social factors mean you'll see a very decent herd immunity effect well below 60/70%. Fingers crossed.

Where have you seen 22% for Sweden, btw?

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:25 pm
by towny
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:53 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:16 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:06 pm
towny wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:47 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:20 pm
To be fair it plummeted over the summer, not just a slight angle down.

However, it is going back up now. Slower than our neighbors, sure, but it's still the wrong direction. That combined with my anecdotal observation that Swedes are no longer taking it seriously, combined with the coming winter gives me real cause for concern to be honest. It would be a shame, because it really needn't go that way, but I have a bad feeling.

... and to be clear, I'm not one to judge the Swedes. I was out in crowded pub Friday evening like nothing was happening, although it did feel a bit "wrong". In my own defense, I am one of the very few that wears a mask on public transport and I seem to be more cautious than most about social distancing and hand washing, etc. It's hard to say no when those pretty Swedish girls want to hang out for a couple of brewskis. ;)
It plummeted over summer because why?

Maybe:
- Swedes all have a remote summer house and the whole country leaves work for 6 weeks
- Swedes weren’t allowed to travel to Spain and Italy and spend long periods of time in airports and planes
- Swedes spend every sunny moment outside, where it’s more difficult to transmit the virus
- Warm weather reduces the transmission rate of the virus
- Swedes are paid decent sick leave, which means they don’t have to go to work to survive. If they have a cough they can afford to stay home.

Swedes don’t wear masks and aren’t taking social distancing seriously - it’s a stretch to suggest they’ve found some loophole in the maths.
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. Although it's only half the story.

It should also be noted that this has occurred without a lock-down, and--for whatever reason--to a more significant extent than it did in many other countries, and that even though not "herd immunity", a higher level of immunity within the general population is probably also a contributing factor. Possibly (probably?) a big one.
I don’t know about herd immunity - think there are easier ways to explain it, but let’s see how we go once it gets cold and wet.
Fair enough ... just a note, I didn't mean "herd immunity", that requires a huge percent of the population to have been infected. I just meant some community immunity. Enough to make a difference. I believe the experts say herd immunity requires an infection rate of about 60-70% and although last estimates of Sweden's is rather high, it's still not close to that at about 22%.
I think that might be the rate in Stockholm, but it can’t be that nationally. For example, it wouldn’t likely be as much as 5% in the city I live - Stockholm and Malmo seem to have taken the brunt.

Is it because they have large public transport systems or is there a cultural rationale? My workplace encouraged people to stay home and has managed it really well, but we’ve seen it appear and then be eliminated in the factory without closing up once. There’s too much we don’t know to explain it.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:46 pm
by CM11
Fair enough, I could buy 22% in Stockholm alright.

There's a definite genetic link in terms of severity and by extension ability to spread easily. Native Swedes may be resilient, could be a more diverse population thing? Although that probably tallies with density too so not a hard and fast rule.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:17 pm
by Mog The Almighty
tbh it seems bizarrely high to me. I dont know a single person who has tested positive. However I believe I read that 22% in New Scientist so it maybe true. Wherever I read it, I'm not in the habit of reading crap so it must have had some weight.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:34 pm
by Clogs
I think the 22% was from a while back and is based on detectable antibodies. They have subsequently discovered that T Cells have the ability to kill off Covid without even producing antibodies. Several other studies have indicated that these T-Cells are already established in about 20-50% of the population and can recognise more than just the protein spike on Covid. In other words they are able to detect and destroy Covid very effectively and are able to do so before the human becomes very sick or overwhelmed with the virus. They are very effective at killing influenza and colds too.

There is however one thing needed in the human body that is required in order to activate this T Cell, and that is Vitamin D. Without sufficient vitamin D the T Cell remains inactive. Summer time is naturally when our vitamin D stores are at their highest, winter many Northern Hemisphere nations end up deficient in this vitamin. So perhaps with the seasonal illnesses it isn't so much that the virus prefers cooler weather (it may) but it could have something to do with the weakened immune system due to lack of sunshine?

This was a fascinating read, an opinion piece in response to a published article, but fascinating nonetheless.
Rapid Response:
T-cells really are the superstars in fighting COVID-19 - but why are some of us so poor at making them?
Dear Editor,

Thank you to Dr Doshi for raising the profile of T-cells. Incidentally, German researchers found that a staggering 81% of individuals had pre-existing T-cells that cross-react with SARS-CoV-2 epitopes [1]. This fits with modelling in May by Imperial College’s Professor Friston, a world authority in mathematical modelling of complex dynamic biological systems, indicating that around 80% and 50% of the German and UK populations, respectively, are resistant to COVID-19: https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston ... eptible-to...

Antibodies can only latch onto and help destroy pathogens outside cells and may also occasionally, paradoxically, enhance a pathogen’s ability to infect cell instead by antibody dependent ”enhancement” or ADE. It is only the T-cell that can cleverly sense and destroy pathogens inside infected cells using “sensors” which detect foreign protein fragments.

In the late 60’s the Lancet described a case of a child with agammaglobulinemia, a condition in which absence of B cells prevent them from producing antibodies, who overcame a measles infection quite normally and did not become re-infected thereafter. We now know that, although this condition can compromise immunity, in that particular case the rest of the immune functions, including T-cells, must have been perfectly up to the job of clearing infection and establishing immune memory without help from antibodies. The importance of T-cells in fighting SARS-CoV-1 and establishing immune memory has also been well documented and discussed in a number of pre-COVID papers from 2017 and earlier [2].

Then, early in April, it was reported that two patients with agammaglobulinemia overcame COVID-19 infections without requiring ventilation [3], prompting the Italian authors to write: “This observation suggests that T‐cell response is probably important for immune protection against the virus, while B‐cell response might be unessential”.

All this should have shifted the focus of efforts towards T-cells at an early stage - the real question is why mainstream media and others continued to focus efforts and narrative on antibodies. Is it because vaccines are good at provoking antibody responses but not so great at generating T-cells? Some of the vaccines presently under trial do elicit some T-cells but it seems that neither the quantity nor variety are hugely impressive.

Does this matter? Apparently so: Research establishments including Yale found that in mild or asymptomatic cases, many T-cells are produced. These were highly varied, responding not just to parts of the Spike, S protein or Receptor Binding Domain but to many other parts of the virus [1, 4-6]. Notably, in these mild cases there were few or no detectable antibodies. Conversely, the severely ill produced few T-cells with less variety but had plenty of antibodies. What is also of interest is that men produced fewer T-cells than women, and unlike women, their T-cell response reduced with age [7].

So why are some people unable to mount a good protective T-cell response? The key to this question might be a 10-year-old Danish study led by Carsten Geisler, head of the Department of International Health, Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen [8]. Geisler noted that "When a T cell is exposed to a foreign pathogen, it extends a signalling device or 'antenna' known as a vitamin D receptor, with which it searches for vitamin D,", and if there is an inadequate vitamin D level, "they won't even begin to mobilize." In other words, adequate vitamin D is critically important for the activation of T-cells from their inactive naïve state. The question of whether T-cells might also need a continuing supply of vitamin D to prevent the T-cell exhaustion and apoptosis observed in some serious COVID-19 cases [9] deserves further research.

High levels of vitamin D are also critical for first line immune defences including physical mucosal defences, human antiviral production, modulating cytokines, reducing blood clotting and a whole host of other important immune system functions [10]. The obese, diabetics and people of BAME origin are far more deficient in vitamin D and men have lower levels than women [10].

Another intriguing clue is that Japan has the highest proportion of elderly on the planet but despite lack of lockdowns, little mask wearing and high population densities in cities, it escaped with few COVID deaths. Could this, at least in part, be because of extraordinarily high vitamin D levels of over 30 ng/ml in 95% of the active elderly [11]? By comparison, UK average levels are below 20ng/ml [10]. Vitamin D is made in the skin from the action of UV sunlight, food usually being a poor source, but the Japanese diet includes unusually high levels. Sunny countries near the equator (e.g. Nigeria, Singapore, Sri Lanka) also have very low COVID related deaths.

The results of the first vitamin D intervention double blind RCT for COVID was published on 29 August by researchers in Córdoba, Spain. This very well conducted study produced spectacular outcomes for the vitamin D group (n=50), virtually eliminating the need for ICU (reducing it by 96%) and eliminating deaths (8% in the n=26 control group). Although this was a small trial, the ICU results are so dramatic that they are statistically highly significant [12].

Substantially more vitamin D is required for optimal immune function than for bone health. It seems Dr Fauci is not ignorant of this, having apparently confirmed on TV and by email that he takes 6,000 IU daily! (see Dr John Campbell on YouTube Vitamin D and pandemic science, 16 September 2020). Meanwhile the US’s health body continues to recommend only 600-800 IU and the UK’s, only 400 IU.

It is high time for joined up solid scientific rationale to overthrow mainstream narratives based on an alternative “science” controlled by industry interests/politics. Beda M Stadler, the former Director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and Professor Emeritus, certainly appears to think so (see Ivor Cummins Ep91 Emeritus Professor of Immunology...Reveals Crucial Viral Immunity Reality on YouTube, 28 July 2020).

In the same way that prior infections protect us against future infections by means of cross-reacting T-cells, overcoming COVID-19 naturally offers potential for greater protection against future coronaviruses. Vaccines have their place but so do our amazingly complex, sophisticated, highly effective immune systems which have evolved over millennia to protect us from a world teeming with trillions of pathogens.

References
1. Annika Nelde, Tatjana Bilich, Jonas S. Heitmann et al. SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes define heterologous and COVID-19-induced T-cell recognition, 16 June 2020, Research Square https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1%20
2. William J.Liuabc et al. T-cell immunity of SARS-CoV: Implications for vaccine development against MERS-CoV.Antiviral Research. Volume 137, January 2017, Pages 82-92 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.antiviral.2016.11.006
3. Soresina, A, Moratto, D, Chiarini, M, et al. Two X‐linked agammaglobulinemia patients develop pneumonia as COVID‐19 manifestation but recover. Pediatr Allergy Immunol. 2020; 31: 565– 569. https://doi.org/10.1111/pai.13263
4. Avraham Unterman, et al. Single-Cell Omics Reveals Dyssynchrony of the Innate and Adaptive Immune System in Progressive COVID-19. medRxiv 2020.07.16.20153437; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.16.20153437
5. Leticia Kuri-Cervantes, et al. Immunologic perturbations in severe COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 infection. bioRxiv 2020.05.18.101717; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.18.101717
6. Floriane Gallais, Aurelie Velay, Marie-Josee Wendling, Charlotte Nazon, Marialuisa Partisani, Jean Sibilia, Sophie Candon, Samira Fafi-Kremer. Intrafamilial Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 Induces Cellular Immune Response without Seroconversion. medRxiv 2020.06.21.20132449; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449
7. Takahashi T, Wong P, Ellingson M, et al. Sex differences in immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 that underlie disease outcomes. Preprint. medRxiv. 2020;2020.06.06.20123414. Published 2020 Jun 9. doi:10.1101/2020.06.06.20123414
8. Von Essen MR, Kongsbak M, Schjerling P, Olgaard K, Odum N, Geisler C. Vitamin D controls T cell antigen receptor signaling and activation of human T cells. Nat Immunol. 2010;11(4):344-349. doi:10.1038/ni.1851
9. Diao B, Wang C, Tan Y, et al. Reduction and Functional Exhaustion of T Cells in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Front Immunol. 2020;11:827. Published 2020 May 1. doi:10.3389/fimmu.2020.00827
10. King, E.. The Role of Vitamin D deficiency in COVID-19 related deaths in BAME, Obese and Other High-risk Categories. 2020, June 17. https://doi.org/10.31232/osf.io/73whx
11. Nakamura K. Vitamin D insufficiency in Japanese populations: from the viewpoint of the prevention of osteoporosis. J Bone Miner Metab. 2006;24(1):1-6. doi:10.1007/s00774-005-0637-0
12. Marta Entrenas Castillo et al. Effect of calcifediol treatment and best available therapy versus best available therapy on intensive care unit admission and mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19: A pilot randomized clinical study. The Journal of Steroid Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. Volume 203, October 2020, 105751. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsbmb.2020.105751

Competing interests: No competing interests

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:56 pm
by Mog The Almighty
Interesting interview between a stunningly handsome Irishman and a moderately good looking Swedish Emergency Room doctor:

https://youtu.be/w6IeN6sgJ3g

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:12 pm
by towny
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:17 pm tbh it seems bizarrely high to me. I dont know a single person who has tested positive. However I believe I read that 22% in New Scientist so it maybe true. Wherever I read it, I'm not in the habit of reading crap so it must have had some weight.
I know a few. Probably 15 or so.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:18 pm
by Mog The Almighty
towny wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:12 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:17 pm tbh it seems bizarrely high to me. I dont know a single person who has tested positive. However I believe I read that 22% in New Scientist so it maybe true. Wherever I read it, I'm not in the habit of reading crap so it must have had some weight.
I know a few. Probably 15 or so.
I met one today at work. Slightly overweight nerdy guy in his 50s. Said he had a slight fever for a few days and that was it but tested positive, not just his own gut hunch. Interesting enough his wife and kids did not.

First person in Sweden I've met with a 100% conclusive positive result. I know a few others who have unconfirmed suspicions.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:11 pm
by Botha Boy
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:56 pm Interesting interview between a stunningly handsome Irishman and a moderately good looking Swedish Emergency Room doctor:

https://youtu.be/w6IeN6sgJ3g
Have a nervous sister-in-law who was worried about visiting her Swedish boyfriend.

I sent her that interview and she is on her way now ...

And HIT does not need to hit 60-70% if there is existing protection in the community from cross-reactivity of T-cells from exposure to other corona viruses in the past.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x


The models are all generally miles off if they assume that the population is homogeneously susceptible to Covid infection.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm
by Botha Boy
And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:50 pm
by AlanBengio
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image
I personally knew many people who died of Covid in a very short timeframe (not less than 20), whereas I never personally knew anyone who died from Influenza in all my precedent life.
It means I may be biased - but I doubt those numbers regardless of any research they are based upon

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:57 pm
by Clogs
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image


Wow! Sorry if I doubted you MOG.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:13 pm
by Botha Boy
AlanBengio wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:50 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image
I personally knew many people who died of Covid in a very short timeframe (not less than 20), whereas I never personally knew anyone who died from Influenza in all my precedent life.
It means I may be biased - but I doubt those numbers regardless of any research they are based upon
Alan, these are just a discussion of some facts, the data looked at unemotionally after the epidemic.

Old people die of very basic illnesses that bounce off the young and healthy as their immune systems become compromised as they get older, and as will happen to us. We certainly simply say that "they passed away" when in fact they caught a simple flu or pneumonia that took them quickly.

This is one of the major peer-reviewed public healthcare journals in the world, so we have an expectation that the professionals and true SMEs in this field have reviewed the paper and cannot fault it's findings.

I am sorry if you have personally suffered loss from this Covid19 pandemic, but it is crucial we look dispassionately at the data to understand our real risk.

Stay safe.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 pm
by Farva
Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:24 pm
by Botha Boy
Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 pm Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.
The estimates of IFR% are coming down as more and more data comes in.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:38 pm
by Farva
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:24 pm
Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 pm Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.
The estimates of IFR% are coming down as more and more data comes in.
Yes. They started at like 2% or 3%.
As I said, an IFR of 0.2% means everyone in New York State has had it.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:44 pm
by Blackrock Bullet
The IFR was never that high iirc, Ferguson had a good deal lower.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:51 pm
by Blackrock Bullet
AlanBengio wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:50 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image
I personally knew many people who died of Covid in a very short timeframe (not less than 20), whereas I never personally knew anyone who died from Influenza in all my precedent life.
It means I may be biased - but I doubt those numbers regardless of any research they are based upon
IFR rises in places with older populations. Covid definitely worse.

Influenza kills a lot every year (including more children), I don’t think we are as aware of it as we are used to it. You’d regularly hear about elderly people passing away in your normal life and wouldn’t ask what from (where as with younger people we always look for an outlier season like cancer), as Covid was about we were all a bit more attuned to it I think.

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:08 am
by Clogs
Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 pm Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.
CDC have regular published figures for IFR based on age brackets. Lower ages the IFR is definitely lower than influenza, upper age brackets definitely higher...

This is their latest:

Image

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:18 am
by Clogs
Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:38 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:24 pm
Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 pm Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.
The estimates of IFR% are coming down as more and more data comes in.
Yes. They started at like 2% or 3%.
As I said, an IFR of 0.2% means everyone in New York State has had it.
New York doesn't appear to be suffering the dreaded second wave (yet). So perhaps most people there have already had it?

Image

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:21 am
by Botha Boy
I think the virome will trigger later by a few weeks relative to Western Europe like it did in the Spring.

Good news if there is no second wave but that might only be due to a truly tragic first wave...

Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:43 am
by MungoMan
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:56 pm Interesting interview between a stunningly handsome Irishman and a moderately good looking Swedish Emergency Room doctor:

https://youtu.be/w6IeN6sgJ3g
This had me intrigued so I watched. And laughed immediately.

Yeah, I've seen your photo.