It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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CM11
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by CM11 »

Fair enough, I could buy 22% in Stockholm alright.

There's a definite genetic link in terms of severity and by extension ability to spread easily. Native Swedes may be resilient, could be a more diverse population thing? Although that probably tallies with density too so not a hard and fast rule.
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Mog The Almighty
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

tbh it seems bizarrely high to me. I dont know a single person who has tested positive. However I believe I read that 22% in New Scientist so it maybe true. Wherever I read it, I'm not in the habit of reading crap so it must have had some weight.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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I think the 22% was from a while back and is based on detectable antibodies. They have subsequently discovered that T Cells have the ability to kill off Covid without even producing antibodies. Several other studies have indicated that these T-Cells are already established in about 20-50% of the population and can recognise more than just the protein spike on Covid. In other words they are able to detect and destroy Covid very effectively and are able to do so before the human becomes very sick or overwhelmed with the virus. They are very effective at killing influenza and colds too.

There is however one thing needed in the human body that is required in order to activate this T Cell, and that is Vitamin D. Without sufficient vitamin D the T Cell remains inactive. Summer time is naturally when our vitamin D stores are at their highest, winter many Northern Hemisphere nations end up deficient in this vitamin. So perhaps with the seasonal illnesses it isn't so much that the virus prefers cooler weather (it may) but it could have something to do with the weakened immune system due to lack of sunshine?

This was a fascinating read, an opinion piece in response to a published article, but fascinating nonetheless.
Rapid Response:
T-cells really are the superstars in fighting COVID-19 - but why are some of us so poor at making them?
Dear Editor,

Thank you to Dr Doshi for raising the profile of T-cells. Incidentally, German researchers found that a staggering 81% of individuals had pre-existing T-cells that cross-react with SARS-CoV-2 epitopes [1]. This fits with modelling in May by Imperial College’s Professor Friston, a world authority in mathematical modelling of complex dynamic biological systems, indicating that around 80% and 50% of the German and UK populations, respectively, are resistant to COVID-19: https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston ... eptible-to...

Antibodies can only latch onto and help destroy pathogens outside cells and may also occasionally, paradoxically, enhance a pathogen’s ability to infect cell instead by antibody dependent ”enhancement” or ADE. It is only the T-cell that can cleverly sense and destroy pathogens inside infected cells using “sensors” which detect foreign protein fragments.

In the late 60’s the Lancet described a case of a child with agammaglobulinemia, a condition in which absence of B cells prevent them from producing antibodies, who overcame a measles infection quite normally and did not become re-infected thereafter. We now know that, although this condition can compromise immunity, in that particular case the rest of the immune functions, including T-cells, must have been perfectly up to the job of clearing infection and establishing immune memory without help from antibodies. The importance of T-cells in fighting SARS-CoV-1 and establishing immune memory has also been well documented and discussed in a number of pre-COVID papers from 2017 and earlier [2].

Then, early in April, it was reported that two patients with agammaglobulinemia overcame COVID-19 infections without requiring ventilation [3], prompting the Italian authors to write: “This observation suggests that T‐cell response is probably important for immune protection against the virus, while B‐cell response might be unessential”.

All this should have shifted the focus of efforts towards T-cells at an early stage - the real question is why mainstream media and others continued to focus efforts and narrative on antibodies. Is it because vaccines are good at provoking antibody responses but not so great at generating T-cells? Some of the vaccines presently under trial do elicit some T-cells but it seems that neither the quantity nor variety are hugely impressive.

Does this matter? Apparently so: Research establishments including Yale found that in mild or asymptomatic cases, many T-cells are produced. These were highly varied, responding not just to parts of the Spike, S protein or Receptor Binding Domain but to many other parts of the virus [1, 4-6]. Notably, in these mild cases there were few or no detectable antibodies. Conversely, the severely ill produced few T-cells with less variety but had plenty of antibodies. What is also of interest is that men produced fewer T-cells than women, and unlike women, their T-cell response reduced with age [7].

So why are some people unable to mount a good protective T-cell response? The key to this question might be a 10-year-old Danish study led by Carsten Geisler, head of the Department of International Health, Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen [8]. Geisler noted that "When a T cell is exposed to a foreign pathogen, it extends a signalling device or 'antenna' known as a vitamin D receptor, with which it searches for vitamin D,", and if there is an inadequate vitamin D level, "they won't even begin to mobilize." In other words, adequate vitamin D is critically important for the activation of T-cells from their inactive naïve state. The question of whether T-cells might also need a continuing supply of vitamin D to prevent the T-cell exhaustion and apoptosis observed in some serious COVID-19 cases [9] deserves further research.

High levels of vitamin D are also critical for first line immune defences including physical mucosal defences, human antiviral production, modulating cytokines, reducing blood clotting and a whole host of other important immune system functions [10]. The obese, diabetics and people of BAME origin are far more deficient in vitamin D and men have lower levels than women [10].

Another intriguing clue is that Japan has the highest proportion of elderly on the planet but despite lack of lockdowns, little mask wearing and high population densities in cities, it escaped with few COVID deaths. Could this, at least in part, be because of extraordinarily high vitamin D levels of over 30 ng/ml in 95% of the active elderly [11]? By comparison, UK average levels are below 20ng/ml [10]. Vitamin D is made in the skin from the action of UV sunlight, food usually being a poor source, but the Japanese diet includes unusually high levels. Sunny countries near the equator (e.g. Nigeria, Singapore, Sri Lanka) also have very low COVID related deaths.

The results of the first vitamin D intervention double blind RCT for COVID was published on 29 August by researchers in Córdoba, Spain. This very well conducted study produced spectacular outcomes for the vitamin D group (n=50), virtually eliminating the need for ICU (reducing it by 96%) and eliminating deaths (8% in the n=26 control group). Although this was a small trial, the ICU results are so dramatic that they are statistically highly significant [12].

Substantially more vitamin D is required for optimal immune function than for bone health. It seems Dr Fauci is not ignorant of this, having apparently confirmed on TV and by email that he takes 6,000 IU daily! (see Dr John Campbell on YouTube Vitamin D and pandemic science, 16 September 2020). Meanwhile the US’s health body continues to recommend only 600-800 IU and the UK’s, only 400 IU.

It is high time for joined up solid scientific rationale to overthrow mainstream narratives based on an alternative “science” controlled by industry interests/politics. Beda M Stadler, the former Director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and Professor Emeritus, certainly appears to think so (see Ivor Cummins Ep91 Emeritus Professor of Immunology...Reveals Crucial Viral Immunity Reality on YouTube, 28 July 2020).

In the same way that prior infections protect us against future infections by means of cross-reacting T-cells, overcoming COVID-19 naturally offers potential for greater protection against future coronaviruses. Vaccines have their place but so do our amazingly complex, sophisticated, highly effective immune systems which have evolved over millennia to protect us from a world teeming with trillions of pathogens.

References
1. Annika Nelde, Tatjana Bilich, Jonas S. Heitmann et al. SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes define heterologous and COVID-19-induced T-cell recognition, 16 June 2020, Research Square https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1%20
2. William J.Liuabc et al. T-cell immunity of SARS-CoV: Implications for vaccine development against MERS-CoV.Antiviral Research. Volume 137, January 2017, Pages 82-92 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.antiviral.2016.11.006
3. Soresina, A, Moratto, D, Chiarini, M, et al. Two X‐linked agammaglobulinemia patients develop pneumonia as COVID‐19 manifestation but recover. Pediatr Allergy Immunol. 2020; 31: 565– 569. https://doi.org/10.1111/pai.13263
4. Avraham Unterman, et al. Single-Cell Omics Reveals Dyssynchrony of the Innate and Adaptive Immune System in Progressive COVID-19. medRxiv 2020.07.16.20153437; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.16.20153437
5. Leticia Kuri-Cervantes, et al. Immunologic perturbations in severe COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 infection. bioRxiv 2020.05.18.101717; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.18.101717
6. Floriane Gallais, Aurelie Velay, Marie-Josee Wendling, Charlotte Nazon, Marialuisa Partisani, Jean Sibilia, Sophie Candon, Samira Fafi-Kremer. Intrafamilial Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 Induces Cellular Immune Response without Seroconversion. medRxiv 2020.06.21.20132449; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449
7. Takahashi T, Wong P, Ellingson M, et al. Sex differences in immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 that underlie disease outcomes. Preprint. medRxiv. 2020;2020.06.06.20123414. Published 2020 Jun 9. doi:10.1101/2020.06.06.20123414
8. Von Essen MR, Kongsbak M, Schjerling P, Olgaard K, Odum N, Geisler C. Vitamin D controls T cell antigen receptor signaling and activation of human T cells. Nat Immunol. 2010;11(4):344-349. doi:10.1038/ni.1851
9. Diao B, Wang C, Tan Y, et al. Reduction and Functional Exhaustion of T Cells in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Front Immunol. 2020;11:827. Published 2020 May 1. doi:10.3389/fimmu.2020.00827
10. King, E.. The Role of Vitamin D deficiency in COVID-19 related deaths in BAME, Obese and Other High-risk Categories. 2020, June 17. https://doi.org/10.31232/osf.io/73whx
11. Nakamura K. Vitamin D insufficiency in Japanese populations: from the viewpoint of the prevention of osteoporosis. J Bone Miner Metab. 2006;24(1):1-6. doi:10.1007/s00774-005-0637-0
12. Marta Entrenas Castillo et al. Effect of calcifediol treatment and best available therapy versus best available therapy on intensive care unit admission and mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19: A pilot randomized clinical study. The Journal of Steroid Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. Volume 203, October 2020, 105751. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsbmb.2020.105751

Competing interests: No competing interests
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Mog The Almighty
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Interesting interview between a stunningly handsome Irishman and a moderately good looking Swedish Emergency Room doctor:

https://youtu.be/w6IeN6sgJ3g
towny
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by towny »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:17 pm tbh it seems bizarrely high to me. I dont know a single person who has tested positive. However I believe I read that 22% in New Scientist so it maybe true. Wherever I read it, I'm not in the habit of reading crap so it must have had some weight.
I know a few. Probably 15 or so.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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towny wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:12 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:17 pm tbh it seems bizarrely high to me. I dont know a single person who has tested positive. However I believe I read that 22% in New Scientist so it maybe true. Wherever I read it, I'm not in the habit of reading crap so it must have had some weight.
I know a few. Probably 15 or so.
I met one today at work. Slightly overweight nerdy guy in his 50s. Said he had a slight fever for a few days and that was it but tested positive, not just his own gut hunch. Interesting enough his wife and kids did not.

First person in Sweden I've met with a 100% conclusive positive result. I know a few others who have unconfirmed suspicions.
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Botha Boy
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:56 pm Interesting interview between a stunningly handsome Irishman and a moderately good looking Swedish Emergency Room doctor:

https://youtu.be/w6IeN6sgJ3g
Have a nervous sister-in-law who was worried about visiting her Swedish boyfriend.

I sent her that interview and she is on her way now ...

And HIT does not need to hit 60-70% if there is existing protection in the community from cross-reactivity of T-cells from exposure to other corona viruses in the past.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x


The models are all generally miles off if they assume that the population is homogeneously susceptible to Covid infection.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
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Botha Boy
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image
I personally knew many people who died of Covid in a very short timeframe (not less than 20), whereas I never personally knew anyone who died from Influenza in all my precedent life.
It means I may be biased - but I doubt those numbers regardless of any research they are based upon
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Clogs
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image


Wow! Sorry if I doubted you MOG.
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Botha Boy
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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AlanBengio wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:50 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image
I personally knew many people who died of Covid in a very short timeframe (not less than 20), whereas I never personally knew anyone who died from Influenza in all my precedent life.
It means I may be biased - but I doubt those numbers regardless of any research they are based upon
Alan, these are just a discussion of some facts, the data looked at unemotionally after the epidemic.

Old people die of very basic illnesses that bounce off the young and healthy as their immune systems become compromised as they get older, and as will happen to us. We certainly simply say that "they passed away" when in fact they caught a simple flu or pneumonia that took them quickly.

This is one of the major peer-reviewed public healthcare journals in the world, so we have an expectation that the professionals and true SMEs in this field have reviewed the paper and cannot fault it's findings.

I am sorry if you have personally suffered loss from this Covid19 pandemic, but it is crucial we look dispassionately at the data to understand our real risk.

Stay safe.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 pm Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.
The estimates of IFR% are coming down as more and more data comes in.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:24 pm
Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 pm Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.
The estimates of IFR% are coming down as more and more data comes in.
Yes. They started at like 2% or 3%.
As I said, an IFR of 0.2% means everyone in New York State has had it.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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The IFR was never that high iirc, Ferguson had a good deal lower.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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AlanBengio wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:50 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image
I personally knew many people who died of Covid in a very short timeframe (not less than 20), whereas I never personally knew anyone who died from Influenza in all my precedent life.
It means I may be biased - but I doubt those numbers regardless of any research they are based upon
IFR rises in places with older populations. Covid definitely worse.

Influenza kills a lot every year (including more children), I don’t think we are as aware of it as we are used to it. You’d regularly hear about elderly people passing away in your normal life and wouldn’t ask what from (where as with younger people we always look for an outlier season like cancer), as Covid was about we were all a bit more attuned to it I think.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 pm Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.
CDC have regular published figures for IFR based on age brackets. Lower ages the IFR is definitely lower than influenza, upper age brackets definitely higher...

This is their latest:

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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:38 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:24 pm
Farva wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 pm Just curious, Peru has recorded a fatality rate of 0.1% at the moment. So does Belgium (well, 0.09%). New York State and New Jersey are at 0.18% officially, but with excess deaths is more like 0.25%.

Given the pandemic is far from over, a rate of 0.15% to 0.2% does not pass the pub test. Albeit Im not a researcher, but there are lots of papers out there with lots of different IFRs. Perhaps this sets the lower bound, whereas some of the upper bounds are at the 1%. Its probably somewhere between.
The estimates of IFR% are coming down as more and more data comes in.
Yes. They started at like 2% or 3%.
As I said, an IFR of 0.2% means everyone in New York State has had it.
New York doesn't appear to be suffering the dreaded second wave (yet). So perhaps most people there have already had it?

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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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I think the virome will trigger later by a few weeks relative to Western Europe like it did in the Spring.

Good news if there is no second wave but that might only be due to a truly tragic first wave...
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:56 pm Interesting interview between a stunningly handsome Irishman and a moderately good looking Swedish Emergency Room doctor:

https://youtu.be/w6IeN6sgJ3g
This had me intrigued so I watched. And laughed immediately.

Yeah, I've seen your photo.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

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Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:13 pm
AlanBengio wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:50 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image
I personally knew many people who died of Covid in a very short timeframe (not less than 20), whereas I never personally knew anyone who died from Influenza in all my precedent life.
It means I may be biased - but I doubt those numbers regardless of any research they are based upon
Alan, these are just a discussion of some facts, the data looked at unemotionally after the epidemic.

Old people die of very basic illnesses that bounce off the young and healthy as their immune systems become compromised as they get older, and as will happen to us. We certainly simply say that "they passed away" when in fact they caught a simple flu or pneumonia that took them quickly.

This is one of the major peer-reviewed public healthcare journals in the world, so we have an expectation that the professionals and true SMEs in this field have reviewed the paper and cannot fault it's findings.

I am sorry if you have personally suffered loss from this Covid19 pandemic, but it is crucial we look dispassionately at the data to understand our real risk.

Stay safe.
I am a witness of my own time - and I saw that, the coffins filling up churches because there was no space left; the Army carrying bodies down to Naples because locally could not be managed. And I heard the bell tolls singing everyday, more than once per day, and helicopters and ambulances both flying around Many times per day.
Whereas I never witnessed that during the “normal” influenza time.
Either those data are wrong for Covid - or are wrong for influenza. Maybe influenza is less dangerous than we think; but there are been less extensive studies over that, maybe asintomatic people with influenza are much bigger in number than we think.
This is the only explanation I can understand to take into consideration those numbers
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Mog The Almighty
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

MungoMan wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:43 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:56 pm Interesting interview between a stunningly handsome Irishman and a moderately good looking Swedish Emergency Room doctor:

https://youtu.be/w6IeN6sgJ3g
This had me intrigued so I watched. And laughed immediately.

Yeah, I've seen your photo.
:lol:
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Botha Boy
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Botha Boy »

AlanBengio wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:35 am
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:13 pm
AlanBengio wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:50 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

Image
I personally knew many people who died of Covid in a very short timeframe (not less than 20), whereas I never personally knew anyone who died from Influenza in all my precedent life.
It means I may be biased - but I doubt those numbers regardless of any research they are based upon
Alan, these are just a discussion of some facts, the data looked at unemotionally after the epidemic.

Old people die of very basic illnesses that bounce off the young and healthy as their immune systems become compromised as they get older, and as will happen to us. We certainly simply say that "they passed away" when in fact they caught a simple flu or pneumonia that took them quickly.

This is one of the major peer-reviewed public healthcare journals in the world, so we have an expectation that the professionals and true SMEs in this field have reviewed the paper and cannot fault it's findings.

I am sorry if you have personally suffered loss from this Covid19 pandemic, but it is crucial we look dispassionately at the data to understand our real risk.

Stay safe.
I am a witness of my own time - and I saw that, the coffins filling up churches because there was no space left; the Army carrying bodies down to Naples because locally could not be managed. And I heard the bell tolls singing everyday, more than once per day, and helicopters and ambulances both flying around Many times per day.
Whereas I never witnessed that during the “normal” influenza time.
Either those data are wrong for Covid - or are wrong for influenza. Maybe influenza is less dangerous than we think; but there are been less extensive studies over that, maybe asintomatic people with influenza are much bigger in number than we think.
This is the only explanation I can understand to take into consideration those numbers
These are most recent Irish figures for overall deaths. Discount anything data for the last 3 months as there is a 3 month reporting timeline.

But the data for the first 6 months of 2020 shows that less people died overall compared to say 2018 ... and there was no great talk of a pandemic back then, just flu and noroviruses. This is the reality and those bodies had to be buried by someone.

Right now across Europe relatively tiny numbers are dying from this virus. We should realise that we are in a much better situation than in the Spring.

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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by towny »

Botha Boy wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:27 am
AlanBengio wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:35 am
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:13 pm
AlanBengio wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:50 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm And Mog, we may all owe you an apology ("choke" ... :lol: ).

The WHO Bulletin has just accepted a paper for publication from John Ioannidis which resets the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) at 0.15% - 0.2%.

The IFR% for influenza is around 0.1% so Covid19 is like a bad flu which disproportionately impacts the aged compared to influenza ...

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I personally knew many people who died of Covid in a very short timeframe (not less than 20), whereas I never personally knew anyone who died from Influenza in all my precedent life.
It means I may be biased - but I doubt those numbers regardless of any research they are based upon
Alan, these are just a discussion of some facts, the data looked at unemotionally after the epidemic.

Old people die of very basic illnesses that bounce off the young and healthy as their immune systems become compromised as they get older, and as will happen to us. We certainly simply say that "they passed away" when in fact they caught a simple flu or pneumonia that took them quickly.

This is one of the major peer-reviewed public healthcare journals in the world, so we have an expectation that the professionals and true SMEs in this field have reviewed the paper and cannot fault it's findings.

I am sorry if you have personally suffered loss from this Covid19 pandemic, but it is crucial we look dispassionately at the data to understand our real risk.

Stay safe.
I am a witness of my own time - and I saw that, the coffins filling up churches because there was no space left; the Army carrying bodies down to Naples because locally could not be managed. And I heard the bell tolls singing everyday, more than once per day, and helicopters and ambulances both flying around Many times per day.
Whereas I never witnessed that during the “normal” influenza time.
Either those data are wrong for Covid - or are wrong for influenza. Maybe influenza is less dangerous than we think; but there are been less extensive studies over that, maybe asintomatic people with influenza are much bigger in number than we think.
This is the only explanation I can understand to take into consideration those numbers
These are most recent Irish figures for overall deaths. Discount anything data for the last 3 months as there is a 3 month reporting timeline.

But the data for the first 6 months of 2020 shows that less people died overall compared to say 2018 ... and there was no great talk of a pandemic back then, just flu and noroviruses. This is the reality and those bodies had to be buried by someone.

Right now across Europe relatively tiny numbers are dying from this virus. We should realise that we are in a much better situation than in the Spring.

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Yeah. We are much better in times that follow the summer than times that follow the winter. And the deaths weren’t much more than previous years - of course we took extreme action to cut down the numbers, do the comparison isn’t very helpful. What would those numbers have been had we done nothing?

Let’s see how we go in winter. Treatment seems to be a lot more effective, but Europe is going to be digging ditches soon enough. We took credit for summer and warm weather. Then we went to Spain for vacation. It’s retarded.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Botha Boy »

It's a valid comment about how bad it could have been without distancing and good hand hygiene, etc.

But we seemed to have a worse event in 2018 which did not require stopping the economy here ... bizarre ... looks like most of the folks who dies would likely have died of something else looking across the annual profiles ...

And as for digging ditches in Europe, any idea when it will start given that hospitalisations are not rising at anything like the use case data, never mind deaths.

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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by towny »

Botha Boy wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:56 pm It's a valid comment about how bad it could have been without distancing and good hand hygiene, etc.

But we seemed to have a worse event in 2018 which did not require stopping the economy here ... bizarre ... looks like most of the folks who dies would likely have died of something else looking across the annual profiles ...

And as for digging ditches in Europe, any idea when it will start given that hospitalisations are not rising at anything like the use case data, never mind deaths.

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You’re looking at hospitals in summer. Maybe wait a couple of months, eh? 👍
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Botha Boy »

We are in October which is a significant step up in Respiratory disease generally compared to August and every admission to hospital is also being tested across Europe.

There is likely to be transmission of Covid19 virus in the community, but remember if the positivity is now 6.2% (in Ireland), then just less than 94% of the respiratory symptoms are non-Covid19. And the bulk of positive cases are amongst the under 30 with relatively minor or no symptoms as we gradually build population immunity in Ireland ... good news ! :)

So we will see how this develops. Thousands are forecast to die by the "Zero-Covid" talking heads on our media. But my guess is that we see a rise in Covid assigned deaths in the next few months but that the overall level of deaths is lower than typical for this tie of year as most of the susceptible died in the initial Spring infection wave. :(

Less people died in the first 6 months of 2020 in Ireland than in 2018 and the stats are not that different from the last 4 years. :)

I know it's a bit of a head wrecker, and I am nervous at aligning with MOG's position back 6 months ago, but this is what the data tells us. :?

Stay Safe ! :thumbup:
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

Botha Boy wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:13 pm I know it's a bit of a head wrecker, and I am nervous at aligning with MOG's position back 6 months ago, but this is what the data tells us. :?
... well, it wasn't really my position, I was just relating what the experts were saying. Which was rarely what the TV news broadcaster or the politcian was saying.

Thankfully, COIVID-19 has not been anywhere near as bad as we thought it maybe could have been. For some reason that upsets certain people. Lack of drama in their life or whatever, I don't know.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

Yeah yeah.

The line of click-baity hacks fighting to shit all over Sweden as their own country spirals out of control goes around the block.

The reality, and the science, tells quite a different story.

And they're full of shit as well.
they are the only countries with high overall mortality rates that have failed to rapidly reduce those numbers as the pandemic has progressed
Say what? Deaths in Sweden from coronavirus over the past 4 months has hovered between zero and 2 a day. There's probably more people in Sweden dying slipping over in the shower.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by bimboman »

It’s race that ain’t even over. Articles like that are just plain silly if they’re meant to be educational regarding science.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Farva »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:40 pm [Say what? Deaths in Sweden from coronavirus over the past 4 months has hovered between zero and 2 a day. There's probably more people in Sweden dying slipping over in the shower.
This kind of misses the point of why the world reacted the way it did. Lets also not forget that 6k people died in Sweden in a population of 10m.
This conversation article does a good job of explaining why: https://theconversation.com/now-everyon ... ong-144494

Im also skeptical about using the 0.15% as the IFR. Its the lowest presented and so may set the lower bound of what it is. To be honest, it doesnt make sense when you consider that places like New York state have exceeded that already with the official numbers.
Other papers put out in the last few weeks have much higher IFRs, for example this article which does a literature review of many different IFR studies and finds a range of between 0.17% and 1.7% (picks between 0.53% and 0.82%) - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1220321809.
It could be as low as 0.15%. It could be as high as 1.7%. Its probably not 1.7% but its probably not 0.15%. Assuming 0.5% (the Sept 29 uses that as a mid point), that is substantially higher than the flu, an order of magnitude higher than normal flu, and maybe 5 times higher than bad flu seasons.
And as the conversation article says, that ignores the infectiousness of Covid, which has an R value of over twice that - what that means is that the rate if infection is much higher and more people will get sick than with the flu and hospitals will be under much more pressure.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Clogs »

Farva wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:21 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:40 pm [Say what? Deaths in Sweden from coronavirus over the past 4 months has hovered between zero and 2 a day. There's probably more people in Sweden dying slipping over in the shower.
This kind of misses the point of why the world reacted the way it did. Lets also not forget that 6k people died in Sweden in a population of 10m.
This conversation article does a good job of explaining why: https://theconversation.com/now-everyon ... ong-144494

Im also skeptical about using the 0.15% as the IFR. Its the lowest presented and so may set the lower bound of what it is. To be honest, it doesnt make sense when you consider that places like New York state have exceeded that already with the official numbers.
Other papers put out in the last few weeks have much higher IFRs, for example this article which does a literature review of many different IFR studies and finds a range of between 0.17% and 1.7% (picks between 0.53% and 0.82%) - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1220321809.
It could be as low as 0.15%. It could be as high as 1.7%. Its probably not 1.7% but its probably not 0.15%. Assuming 0.5% (the Sept 29 uses that as a mid point), that is substantially higher than the flu, an order of magnitude higher than normal flu, and maybe 5 times higher than bad flu seasons.
And as the conversation article says, that ignores the infectiousness of Covid, which has an R value of over twice that - what that means is that the rate if infection is much higher and more people will get sick than with the flu and hospitals will be under much more pressure.
Here is the problem with a single number IFR. It does not take into account the age brackets of the population. New York could well have a higher overall IFR, because they have a greater number of elderly and infirmed than say Delhi. That would definitely skew the data.

According to the CDC the IFR worst case for anyone under 50 is 0.02%. That is 25 times lower than your 0.5% number when comparing it to flu.
Over 50 and 70 it is 0.5% which is your number, but over 70 and this thing is fvcking super deadly at 5.4%. 1 in 20 people over the age of 70 will die from this fvcking thing if they contract it. If that figure hasn't mobilised all sorts of systems and processes in countries to protect their elderly then those politicians and public health officials should be up on criminal charges.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Farva »

I agree with you Clogs, and I think every publication listing an IFR talks about that.
I am still concerned around the "protect the vulnerable" approach as I dont think anyone has done it (people in nursing homes need to have carers, unless those carers are isolated as well, they will be carriers).
Having said that, the best approach for most places now is let it run and implement restrictions when hospitals are overwhelmed. That is now the advice of the WHO.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by eldanielfire »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:40 pm
Yeah yeah.

The line of click-baity hacks fighting to shit all over Sweden as their own country spirals out of control goes around the block.

The reality, and the science, tells quite a different story.

And they're full of shit as well.
they are the only countries with high overall mortality rates that have failed to rapidly reduce those numbers as the pandemic has progressed
Say what? Deaths in Sweden from coronavirus over the past 4 months has hovered between zero and 2 a day. There's probably more people in Sweden dying slipping over in the shower.
This reminds me of why I detest the media, it's all about being on a winning side than any objective analysis of the situation. Sweden aren't even in the top 10 for deaths per million right now and there seem to be very little analysis or commentary of why Belgium's rates are the highest in Europe. An irony here was he usual silly woke commentators actually made a point that female leaders responded to the crisis better, despite Belgium having the worst rate in Europe under a Female PM (They have only just changed PM this month). A real non-scientific point of non-analysis there in a serious pandemic.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

eldanielfire wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:39 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:40 pm
Yeah yeah.

The line of click-baity hacks fighting to shit all over Sweden as their own country spirals out of control goes around the block.

The reality, and the science, tells quite a different story.

And they're full of shit as well.
they are the only countries with high overall mortality rates that have failed to rapidly reduce those numbers as the pandemic has progressed
Say what? Deaths in Sweden from coronavirus over the past 4 months has hovered between zero and 2 a day. There's probably more people in Sweden dying slipping over in the shower.
This reminds me of why I detest the media, it's all about being on a winning side than any objective analysis of the situation. Sweden aren't even in the top 10 for deaths per million right now and there seem to be very little analysis or commentary of why Belgium's rates are the highest in Europe. An irony here was he usual silly woke commentators actually made a point that female leaders responded to the crisis better, despite Belgium having the worst rate in Europe under a Female PM (They have only just changed PM this month). A real non-scientific point of non-analysis there in a serious pandemic.
I don't even think it's about female leaders to be honest.

But I do totally agree that there's some very weird tribalism going on here, and it's very politizied and polarized, as is everything these days. What is even the point of the article? Who is suggesting "the rest of the world" do things the same way one small, socially awkward and sparsely populated Scandinavian country did things?

It's the "pro lockdown, pro maskers" vs the "anti lockdown anti maskers" and they've all switched their brains off. I blame The Social Dilemma.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by UncleFB »

Clogs wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:43 am
Farva wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:21 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:40 pm [Say what? Deaths in Sweden from coronavirus over the past 4 months has hovered between zero and 2 a day. There's probably more people in Sweden dying slipping over in the shower.
This kind of misses the point of why the world reacted the way it did. Lets also not forget that 6k people died in Sweden in a population of 10m.
This conversation article does a good job of explaining why: https://theconversation.com/now-everyon ... ong-144494

Im also skeptical about using the 0.15% as the IFR. Its the lowest presented and so may set the lower bound of what it is. To be honest, it doesnt make sense when you consider that places like New York state have exceeded that already with the official numbers.
Other papers put out in the last few weeks have much higher IFRs, for example this article which does a literature review of many different IFR studies and finds a range of between 0.17% and 1.7% (picks between 0.53% and 0.82%) - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1220321809.
It could be as low as 0.15%. It could be as high as 1.7%. Its probably not 1.7% but its probably not 0.15%. Assuming 0.5% (the Sept 29 uses that as a mid point), that is substantially higher than the flu, an order of magnitude higher than normal flu, and maybe 5 times higher than bad flu seasons.
And as the conversation article says, that ignores the infectiousness of Covid, which has an R value of over twice that - what that means is that the rate if infection is much higher and more people will get sick than with the flu and hospitals will be under much more pressure.
Here is the problem with a single number IFR. It does not take into account the age brackets of the population. New York could well have a higher overall IFR, because they have a greater number of elderly and infirmed than say Delhi. That would definitely skew the data.

According to the CDC the IFR worst case for anyone under 50 is 0.02%. That is 25 times lower than your 0.5% number when comparing it to flu.
Over 50 and 70 it is 0.5% which is your number, but over 70 and this thing is fvcking super deadly at 5.4%. 1 in 20 people over the age of 70 will die from this fvcking thing if they contract it. If that figure hasn't mobilised all sorts of systems and processes in countries to protect their elderly then those politicians and public health officials should be up on criminal charges.
So, since this a thread about Sweden, and the Swedish health official in charge admitted that did not do enough to protect their elderly when implementing the "Swedish" method, do you think he should be up on criminal charges?
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by Mog The Almighty »

UncleFB wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:46 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:43 am
Farva wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:21 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:40 pm [Say what? Deaths in Sweden from coronavirus over the past 4 months has hovered between zero and 2 a day. There's probably more people in Sweden dying slipping over in the shower.
This kind of misses the point of why the world reacted the way it did. Lets also not forget that 6k people died in Sweden in a population of 10m.
This conversation article does a good job of explaining why: https://theconversation.com/now-everyon ... ong-144494

Im also skeptical about using the 0.15% as the IFR. Its the lowest presented and so may set the lower bound of what it is. To be honest, it doesnt make sense when you consider that places like New York state have exceeded that already with the official numbers.
Other papers put out in the last few weeks have much higher IFRs, for example this article which does a literature review of many different IFR studies and finds a range of between 0.17% and 1.7% (picks between 0.53% and 0.82%) - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1220321809.
It could be as low as 0.15%. It could be as high as 1.7%. Its probably not 1.7% but its probably not 0.15%. Assuming 0.5% (the Sept 29 uses that as a mid point), that is substantially higher than the flu, an order of magnitude higher than normal flu, and maybe 5 times higher than bad flu seasons.
And as the conversation article says, that ignores the infectiousness of Covid, which has an R value of over twice that - what that means is that the rate if infection is much higher and more people will get sick than with the flu and hospitals will be under much more pressure.
Here is the problem with a single number IFR. It does not take into account the age brackets of the population. New York could well have a higher overall IFR, because they have a greater number of elderly and infirmed than say Delhi. That would definitely skew the data.

According to the CDC the IFR worst case for anyone under 50 is 0.02%. That is 25 times lower than your 0.5% number when comparing it to flu.
Over 50 and 70 it is 0.5% which is your number, but over 70 and this thing is fvcking super deadly at 5.4%. 1 in 20 people over the age of 70 will die from this fvcking thing if they contract it. If that figure hasn't mobilised all sorts of systems and processes in countries to protect their elderly then those politicians and public health officials should be up on criminal charges.
So, since this a thread about Sweden, and the Swedish health official in charge admitted that did not do enough to protect their elderly when implementing the "Swedish" method, do you think he should be up on criminal charges?
I realise you didn't suggest it first, but that is obviously a ridiculous thing to say.

Reminds me of the Italians putting up a bunch of seismologists for manslaughter for failing to predict the earthquakes there in 2009 or whatever. :lol: That is not how science works.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by UncleFB »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:57 am
UncleFB wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:46 am
Clogs wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:43 am
Farva wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:21 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:40 pm [Say what? Deaths in Sweden from coronavirus over the past 4 months has hovered between zero and 2 a day. There's probably more people in Sweden dying slipping over in the shower.
This kind of misses the point of why the world reacted the way it did. Lets also not forget that 6k people died in Sweden in a population of 10m.
This conversation article does a good job of explaining why: https://theconversation.com/now-everyon ... ong-144494

Im also skeptical about using the 0.15% as the IFR. Its the lowest presented and so may set the lower bound of what it is. To be honest, it doesnt make sense when you consider that places like New York state have exceeded that already with the official numbers.
Other papers put out in the last few weeks have much higher IFRs, for example this article which does a literature review of many different IFR studies and finds a range of between 0.17% and 1.7% (picks between 0.53% and 0.82%) - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1220321809.
It could be as low as 0.15%. It could be as high as 1.7%. Its probably not 1.7% but its probably not 0.15%. Assuming 0.5% (the Sept 29 uses that as a mid point), that is substantially higher than the flu, an order of magnitude higher than normal flu, and maybe 5 times higher than bad flu seasons.
And as the conversation article says, that ignores the infectiousness of Covid, which has an R value of over twice that - what that means is that the rate if infection is much higher and more people will get sick than with the flu and hospitals will be under much more pressure.
Here is the problem with a single number IFR. It does not take into account the age brackets of the population. New York could well have a higher overall IFR, because they have a greater number of elderly and infirmed than say Delhi. That would definitely skew the data.

According to the CDC the IFR worst case for anyone under 50 is 0.02%. That is 25 times lower than your 0.5% number when comparing it to flu.
Over 50 and 70 it is 0.5% which is your number, but over 70 and this thing is fvcking super deadly at 5.4%. 1 in 20 people over the age of 70 will die from this fvcking thing if they contract it. If that figure hasn't mobilised all sorts of systems and processes in countries to protect their elderly then those politicians and public health officials should be up on criminal charges.
So, since this a thread about Sweden, and the Swedish health official in charge admitted that did not do enough to protect their elderly when implementing the "Swedish" method, do you think he should be up on criminal charges?
I realise you didn't suggest it first, but that is obviously a ridiculous thing to say.

Reminds me of the Italians putting up a bunch of seismologists for manslaughter for failing to predict the earthquakes there in 2009 or whatever. :lol: That is not how science works.
I agree. I was using that comment to highlight the ridiculousness of the comment.
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Re: It's official, Sweden declare themselves the Covid winners

Post by eldanielfire »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:43 am
I don't even think it's about female leaders to be honest.
A lot of it isn't, it's just about having the "winning argument" regardless of being informed by the real world. But the women leaders thing was the case in some commentators, furthering it's about affirming their beliefs (new one about COVID, old ones too).


But I do totally agree that there's some very weird tribalism going on here, and it's very politizied and polarized, as is everything these days. What is even the point of the article? Who is suggesting "the rest of the world" do things the same way one small, socially awkward and sparsely populated Scandinavian country did things?

It's the "pro lockdown, pro maskers" vs the "anti lockdown anti maskers" and they've all switched their brains off. I blame The Social Dilemma.
Yeah. The internet isn't a place to get informed, it's a place to reaffirm your own opinions and ignore anything that doesn't fit.
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