U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

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Flyin Ryan
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Flyin Ryan »

Market health. Obligatory "this is from ZeroHedge".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einho ... completely
What follows next is a tour de force from Einhorn lashing out at all the ways the market is broken, and how the Reddit insanity of Q1 exposed it for all to see:
In late January, the market came to focus on companies with large short interests. Despite having a diversified portfolio, a number of our positions fell into this group and experienced sudden, sharp rises. We adjusted to the dynamic by reducing our exposure to single name shorts, both in number and sizing. To mitigate the potentially uncomfortable net long bias that would have resulted, we added macro hedges of market index and index option shorts. While we do not expect this to be a permanent change, we will evaluate and modify as we go. The performance of our short portfolio in 2020 and in early 2021 was unacceptable, so change is certainly needed. If we swing a little less hard, we should hit more balls. We have also revised our internal analyst incentive structure to fully emphasize alpha creation.

Much has been made of the short-squeezes in late January. In fact, Congress held hearings, where it called the leaders of Robinhood, Melvin Capital and Citadel and an individual investor who made a great call on GameStop (GME) to testify. We have a few thoughts about this to share.

First, it is very healthy for market participants to discuss and debate stocks. This is true both privately and publicly. There are rules about fraud and manipulation that need to be followed, but investors discussing why they think GME (or any other stock) should go up or down ought to be encouraged. There is no reason to drag anyone before Congress for making a stock pick.

Second, it is also fine to make bad stock picks. If a hedge fund takes a big position in a stock and is wrong, it loses money. Isn’t this how it is supposed to work?

Third, payment for order flow is just disguised commissions. We are in a world where consumers, especially young ones, expect internet services to be free, or at least free to them. A quote widely attributed to Richard Serra about commercial TV in 1973 says it best: “You’re not the customer; you’re the product.” If you want the broker to work for you, pay a commission.

Fourth, Robinhood suspended trading in certain stocks because it was undercapitalized. It is possible that it wasn’t following the regulatory requirements. A regulatory sanction is probably appropriate – but as we’ll discuss below, we won’t be holding our breath.
The punchline: Einhorn slamming Chamath and Elon for pouring the "real jet fuel" on the GME squeeze:
Finally, we note that the real jet fuel on the GME squeeze came from Chamath Palihapitiya and Elon Musk, whose appearances on TV and Twitter, respectively, at a critical moment further destabilized the situation. Mr. Palihapitiya controls SoFi, which competes with Robinhood, and left us with the impression that by destabilizing GME he could harm a competitor. As for Mr. Musk, we are going to defend him, half-heartedly. If regulators wanted Elon Musk to stop manipulating stocks, they should have done so with more than a light slap on the wrist when they accused him of manipulating Tesla’s shares in 2018. The laws don’t apply to him and he can do whatever he wants.

Many who would never support defunding the police have supported – and for all intents and purposes have succeeded – in almost completely defanging, if not defunding, the regulators. For the most part, quasi-anarchy appears to rule in markets. Sure, Dr. Michael Burry, famed for his role in The Big Short, reportedly received a visit from the SEC after tweeting warnings about recent market trends – and decided to stop publicly speaking truth to power. But for the most part, there is no cop on the beat. It’s as if there are no financial fraud prosecutors; companies and managements that are emboldened enough to engage in malfeasance have little to fear.
Einhorn then concludes with three anecdotes to demonstrate his argument that this is not only an "anything goes" market where crime is rampant, but proving just how broken the market has become.

First, consider the investigation of Tether by the Office of the Attorney General of New York (OAG). As Einhorn explains, "tether is a cryptocurrency that is always worth a dollar (the value is “tethered” to the dollar). Tether is one of the largest cryptocurrencies with about $40 billion outstanding, yet it has not been audited or regulated in any serious manner. In theory, Tether is supposed to have $1 of cash backing every Tether issued. Except it didn’t, at least when it was investigated." Incidentally, for anyone still confused, Tether is how the Chinese launder billions in domestic funds abroad and outside the Chinese firewall as we explained in December, although so far few have the desire to expose this reality. In any case, here is Einhorn's lament:
The OAG conducted a two-year probe and found that Tether deceived clients and the market by overstating reserves and hiding approximately $850 million of losses around the globe. Tether and its sponsor, Bitfinex, “recklessly and unlawfully covered up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going and protect their bottom lines,” said the OAG. Further, “Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie.”

Did the OAG shut down Tether? Did anyone get arrested or even lose their job? Was the regulatory infrastructure changed to make sure this doesn’t happen again? No, of course not. The OAG assessed an $18.5 million penalty and Tether agreed to discontinue “any trading activity with New Yorkers.” It was as if Bernie Madoff had been told to pay a small fine and stop ripping off New Yorkers, but to go ahead and have fun with the Palm Beach crowd.
Einhorn next highlights one of the stocks most hated by the bearish community: GSX:
The media is focused on how the banks allowed excessive leverage and poorly (or properly) managed their risks. The real story is how Arch-Egos was able to buy up most of the float of GSX Techedu, causing the stock to soar 400% in the face of unrefuted allegations of massive fraud. The SEC has an ongoing investigation of GSX but appears to not have noticed a single fund (or a small group of funds) essentially cornering the market. A traditionalist could say this was market manipulation and transparently illegal.
The professional poker player finally points out some of the insane moves observed in pennystocks in Q1, focusing on a tiny deli owner in rural NJ:
Strange things happen to all kinds of stocks. Last year, on one day in June, the stocks of about a dozen bankrupt companies roughly doubled on enormous volume. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported a boom in penny stocks.

Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September. HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8. The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious.
We don't find it at all surprising that Einhorn's conclusion from his capital markets observations over the past quarter is identical to ours, when we discussed the insane stock moves that dominated much of January and February:
"From a traditional perspective, the market is fractured and possibly in the process of breaking completely."
Interest rates have to go up, and when they do a lot of people will be kicking and screaming.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Mick Mannock »

DAC_ wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:17 pm I've noticed that a lot of the most fervent Biden supporters are really trying to gaslight others as to Trump's term in office. Why is that?
It is because they pretend to be decent people, but are not.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Mick Mannock »

And the anti-democratic Democrats will probably pack the Supreme Court in their move towards dictatorship.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Saturnine »

Mick Mannock wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:34 pm And the anti-democratic Democrats will probably pack the Supreme Court in their move towards dictatorship.
Republicans have always been scrupulously even handed when it comes to appointments to the Supreme court, haven't they?
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Flyin Ryan »

Mick Mannock wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:34 pm And the anti-democratic Democrats will probably pack the Supreme Court in their move towards dictatorship.
If there's one thing that annoys me about modern politics is how short-sighted politicians are. Do the Democrats think the Republicans are never going to be in control one day and could potentially follow the precedent they established?

It's why there needs to be a constitutional amendment that sets maximum size. I'd be willing to entertain the idea of going to say 9 to 15 while keeping the number that hear a case at 9 to improve caseload (which a lot of the politicians that try to legislate law through the legal system that should scare them - it will be luck of the draw whether you happen to get a more liberal or more conservative set of justices when the case reaches the Supreme Court), but it should be done piecemeal of you add 1 every 4 years, that way if passed this year you would have 15 in 2045. If you do all 6 at once, that's like Franklin Roosevelt's failed attempt in the 1930s a very naked power grab.

Supposedly Pelosi won't bring the bill up for a vote, so since the person bringing the bill is the Judiciary Committee Chair Nadler, this is potentially all just posturing to satisfy outside interest groups while not actually doing anything.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Flyin Ryan »

Saturnine wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:40 pm
Mick Mannock wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:34 pm And the anti-democratic Democrats will probably pack the Supreme Court in their move towards dictatorship.
Republicans have always been scrupulously even handed when it comes to appointments to the Supreme court, haven't they?
There's a difference between playing politics and breaking the structure of an institution that has existed for 240 years charged with deciding the constitutionality of law.

With hindsight, the best political move would've been Republicans in 2016 should've held the vote on Garland and voted him down. Justices being voted down has happened before. The Democrats famously disapproved Bork in the '80s on purely political grounds. That way approving Barnett in 2020 would've followed what they did in 2016.
Last edited by Flyin Ryan on Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Mick Mannock
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Mick Mannock »

In one of the presidential debates, Trump said that Biden would pack the Supreme Court
Trump interjected: “Are you going to pack the court? Are you going to pack the court? He doesn’t want to answer.”

“I’m not going to answer the question, because the question is, the question is, the question is —” Biden said, as Trump continued to press him to answer.

“Will you shut up, man?” the former vice president said.

Trump persisted: “Who is on your list, Joe? Who is on your list? He’s going to pack the court.”

After telling the president to shut up, Biden scoffed, “This is so unpresidential.”

“Keep yapping, man!” Biden said in a parting shot.

“The people understand, Joe. In 47 years, you’ve done nothing. They understand,” Trump said.
Trump said Biden would do this.

Biden probably will.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Flyin Ryan »

Mick Mannock wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:49 pm In one of the presidential debates, Trump said that Biden would pack the Supreme Court
Trump interjected: “Are you going to pack the court? Are you going to pack the court? He doesn’t want to answer.”

“I’m not going to answer the question, because the question is, the question is, the question is —” Biden said, as Trump continued to press him to answer.

“Will you shut up, man?” the former vice president said.

Trump persisted: “Who is on your list, Joe? Who is on your list? He’s going to pack the court.”

After telling the president to shut up, Biden scoffed, “This is so unpresidential.”

“Keep yapping, man!” Biden said in a parting shot.

“The people understand, Joe. In 47 years, you’ve done nothing. They understand,” Trump said.
Trump said Biden would do this.

Biden probably will.
I doubt it just because Biden should be smarter then the left-wing activist base. Man's been in D.C. for 40 years. He knows the structure of things and how they work, I doubt he wants to do anything that fractures a system that has existed for 240 years. If the Supreme Court becomes a partisan tool - which people in both parties definitely want it to be - then it should not have the right to decide the constitutionality of law. There are definitely reforms you could do if you want to have more judicial turnover. For starters, a time of service limit or mandatory age retirement. You could generate more intellectual diversity instead of merely facial diversity alone by having a maximum of 1 Supreme Court Justice coming from each circuit. You could set maximums based on law school graduated from (sorry to the Yales and Harvards of the world) and legal firms worked for.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Saturnine »

Mick Mannock wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:49 pm In one of the presidential debates, Trump said that Biden would pack the Supreme Court
Trump interjected: “Are you going to pack the court? Are you going to pack the court? He doesn’t want to answer.”

“I’m not going to answer the question, because the question is, the question is, the question is —” Biden said, as Trump continued to press him to answer.

“Will you shut up, man?” the former vice president said.

Trump persisted: “Who is on your list, Joe? Who is on your list? He’s going to pack the court.”

After telling the president to shut up, Biden scoffed, “This is so unpresidential.”

“Keep yapping, man!” Biden said in a parting shot.

“The people understand, Joe. In 47 years, you’ve done nothing. They understand,” Trump said.
Trump said Biden would do this.

Biden probably will.
Trump flapped his gums about a load of things whilst he was stinking up the WH. The law of averages indicates that whilst he was wrong about the vast majority of stuff, occasionally he might stumble onto something that might have the ring of truth about it.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

Flyin Ryan wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:43 pm
Mick Mannock wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:34 pm And the anti-democratic Democrats will probably pack the Supreme Court in their move towards dictatorship.
If there's one thing that annoys me about modern politics is how short-sighted politicians are. Do the Democrats think the Republicans are never going to be in control one day and could potentially follow the precedent they established?

It's why there needs to be a constitutional amendment that sets maximum size. I'd be willing to entertain the idea of going to say 9 to 15 while keeping the number that hear a case at 9 to improve caseload (which a lot of the politicians that try to legislate law through the legal system that should scare them - it will be luck of the draw whether you happen to get a more liberal or more conservative set of justices when the case reaches the Supreme Court), but it should be done piecemeal of you add 1 every 4 years, that way if passed this year you would have 15 in 2045. If you do all 6 at once, that's like Franklin Roosevelt's failed attempt in the 1930s a very naked power grab.

Supposedly Pelosi won't bring the bill up for a vote, so since the person bringing the bill is the Judiciary Committee Chair Nadler, this is potentially all just posturing to satisfy outside interest groups while not actually doing anything.
How could the Dems possibly stack the Supreme Court in their favour? Would the thinking be they could add a number of judges and get through a vote wherein all those judges are young liberal lions? I doubt they could get that past their own Senate members

As is they've been presented with a majority conservative court that doesn't especially well represent the country as is. Though we also don't especially know what the 2 parties will look like in another 5 years and how various groups might gravitate towards either of those.

About the Dems can do is reduce the imbalance, anything more than that is going to take a good number of additional blue seats in the Senate to reduce the impact of the Manchinian Candidate

Also if not being short sighted the GOP might want to consider how they respond to the larger number of actual voters voting Blue and/or are part of the much larger blue states in a system that skews in the interests of the minority party. And for such measure to be about something other than making it harder for people to vote. Because it it's about being short sighted then at some point this union fragments
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

Saturnine wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:57 pm
Mick Mannock wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:49 pm In one of the presidential debates, Trump said that Biden would pack the Supreme Court
Trump interjected: “Are you going to pack the court? Are you going to pack the court? He doesn’t want to answer.”

“I’m not going to answer the question, because the question is, the question is, the question is —” Biden said, as Trump continued to press him to answer.

“Will you shut up, man?” the former vice president said.

Trump persisted: “Who is on your list, Joe? Who is on your list? He’s going to pack the court.”

After telling the president to shut up, Biden scoffed, “This is so unpresidential.”

“Keep yapping, man!” Biden said in a parting shot.

“The people understand, Joe. In 47 years, you’ve done nothing. They understand,” Trump said.
Trump said Biden would do this.

Biden probably will.
Trump flapped his gums about a load of things whilst he was stinking up the WH. The law of averages indicates that whilst he was wrong about the vast majority of stuff, occasionally he might stumble onto something that might have the ring of truth about it.
Sticking bleach up the fundament probably wasn't one of those
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Mick Mannock »

Bleach :lol:

Still peddling that one :lol:
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Flyin Ryan »

piquant wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:01 pmAs is they've been presented with a majority conservative court that doesn't especially well represent the country as is.
Bullshit argument. Stick to France, and tell me why Macron closed ENA.

(If the Court is supposed to well represent the country, why is everyone except Amy Comey Barrett a graduate of Yale or Harvard Law when there are dozens of very good law schools in this country? Barrett is from Notre Dame. When Notre Dame's your poor downtrodden member of the group, you're incredibly elitist.)
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by La soule »

Flyin Ryan wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:03 pm
piquant wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:01 pmAs is they've been presented with a majority conservative court that doesn't especially well represent the country as is.
Bullshit argument. Stick to France, and tell me why Macron closed ENA.

(If the Court is supposed to well represent the country, why is everyone except Amy Comey Barrett a graduate of Yale or Harvard Law when there are dozens of very good law schools in this country? Barrett is from Notre Dame. When Notre Dame's your poor downtrodden member of the group, you're incredibly elitist.)
I will take that one on behalf of Piquant as he is not French.

The answer is cosmetics.
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Post by 4071 »

Flyin Ryan wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:03 pm
piquant wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:01 pmAs is they've been presented with a majority conservative court that doesn't especially well represent the country as is.
Bullshit argument. Stick to France, and tell me why Macron closed ENA.

(If the Court is supposed to well represent the country, why is everyone except Amy Comey Barrett a graduate of Yale or Harvard Law when there are dozens of very good law schools in this country? Barrett is from Notre Dame. When Notre Dame's your poor downtrodden member of the group, you're incredibly elitist.)
Deeply stupid point. Might as well point out that the court is no representation of the country because it's full of people who studied law. But there is an idea of a balanced court, representing the political balance of the country. Something that Amy Coney Barrett brought up in 2016 when she rejected the idea that Obama should replace Scalia with Garland because it would "dramatically flip the balance of power" in the court.

A principle that - in common with all conservative principles - is abandoned the moment it becomes inconvenient.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Zico »

La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:26 pm
I will take that one on behalf of Piquant as he is not French.
Where is he/she from?
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by La soule »

Zico wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:32 pm
La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:26 pm
I will take that one on behalf of Piquant as he is not French.
Where is he/she from?
Wales I believe.

Apologies in advance if I am wrong :uhoh:
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

Flyin Ryan wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:03 pm
piquant wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:01 pmAs is they've been presented with a majority conservative court that doesn't especially well represent the country as is.
Bullshit argument. Stick to France, and tell me why Macron closed ENA.

(If the Court is supposed to well represent the country, why is everyone except Amy Comey Barrett a graduate of Yale or Harvard Law when there are dozens of very good law schools in this country? Barrett is from Notre Dame. When Notre Dame's your poor downtrodden member of the group, you're incredibly elitist.)
Stick to France on a thread about the USA and Biden, I mean fair enough but I hadn't thought to previously.

If you want more top appointments not to feature those with qualifications out of Yale and Harvard that's fair enough, I wouldn't have been intending to argue for the status quo in that fashion but it's a perfectly fair point.

It's not easy to wholly break such dogma, we have some similar issues in the UK with the Oxbridge institutions, it's hardly a secret that some of the best apply to and will advance from such institutions

It's not quite the point I was making however, and fwiw even with the shifting of the goalposts I don't think you'd want to drop too much below the top institutions in the main, there might be the odd outstanding candidate who's gone through a bog standard college, but if they're obviously class someone is going to put them into a program at a top school
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:34 pm
Zico wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:32 pm
La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:26 pm
I will take that one on behalf of Piquant as he is not French.
Where is he/she from?
Wales I believe.

Apologies in advance if I am wrong :uhoh:
Harsh indeed! English, albeit with a Welsh mother.

Perhaps it was the Welsh blood which initially drew a slow response from me, such I was halfway to posting back in some very bad French with some thoughts on liberty and despotism espousing thoughts form the likes of Benjamin Constant before I realised why I was being asked to stick to the French
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Post by Zico »

Piquant - pleasantly stimulating or exciting to the mind.

I never heard the term before but I'll bank it. :thumbup:
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by La soule »

piquant wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:53 pm
La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:34 pm
Zico wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:32 pm
La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:26 pm
I will take that one on behalf of Piquant as he is not French.
Where is he/she from?
Wales I believe.

Apologies in advance if I am wrong :uhoh:
Harsh indeed! English, albeit with a Welsh mother.

Perhaps it was the Welsh blood which initially drew a slow response from me, such I was halfway to posting back in some very bad French with some thoughts on liberty and despotism espousing thoughts form the likes of Benjamin Constant before I realised why I was being asked to stick to the French
You can be an honorary Frenchman as well if you want to :thumbup:
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

Zico wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:19 pm Piquant - pleasantly stimulating or exciting to the mind.

I never heard the term before but I'll bank it. :thumbup:
I think someone said something along the lines of post on PR, it's all good fun and capers. And the capers made me think of the food capers and thusly piquancy. Though when you write it with that description I do seem to be dramatically overselling in the name
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:41 pm
piquant wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:53 pm
La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:34 pm
Zico wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:32 pm
La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:26 pm
I will take that one on behalf of Piquant as he is not French.
Where is he/she from?
Wales I believe.

Apologies in advance if I am wrong :uhoh:
Harsh indeed! English, albeit with a Welsh mother.

Perhaps it was the Welsh blood which initially drew a slow response from me, such I was halfway to posting back in some very bad French with some thoughts on liberty and despotism espousing thoughts form the likes of Benjamin Constant before I realised why I was being asked to stick to the French
You can be an honorary Frenchman as well if you want to :thumbup:
That would indeed be an honour. I actually started out less a rugby fan and more a fan of the team in Blue, back before I'd even grasped the concept of nationalism, certainly as far as the rugby went. Mostly rugby was a boring thing my father and grandfather watched, but the team of Blanco and the gang was something that little bit special
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Flyin Ryan »

4071 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:31 pmBut there is an idea of a balanced court, representing the political balance of the country.
The political balance of the country if that decided Supreme Court membership is 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans, and the last one is a tossup.

Honestly though, we can go through most of the 20th century where the court was not balanced and was heavily influenced by the politics of a single region - the northeast - which changed the country into being very heavily centralized and not matching the beliefs of the majority of the country on a number of issues. The huge overpowered central government didn't even exist until Worthless Piece of Shit Woodrow Wilson became President in 1913, and it was then put on steroids by Roosevelt. And one of Roosevelt's selections for Justice served until 1975!

(One reason we have presidential term limits: held by most all to great president but power-hungry asshole Roosevelt. When he died he had selected 7 of the 9 Justices serving. The remaining 2 did not last long into Truman's first term.)

I very highly criticize people that think diversity should only be visible. There should be intellectual diversity as well. Want an example? Economics, where there's an extreme amount of academic criticism of the Chicago School which churns out a lot of high-powered well-listened to economists.

If you think the Justices should represent the politics of the country as opposed to saying "yes and no" to "is this constitutional?", you're literally arguing that the First Supreme Court Justice of note in this country, John Marshall, should've been removed from the Court because he was a Federalist and imposed Federalist notions long after the Federalists died as a political force in this country (Marshall was Chief Justice when Andrew Jackson was President) which are still here more than 200 years later of "the Supreme Court decides what is constitutional, not the states" when if the popularly elected President Thomas Jefferson and his supporters which ran the country from 1800 until 1824 had their way, would've been the states. Anyone that thinks Marshall should've not been on the Court because he did not represent the political times of the day is with all due respect an effing idiot and has no right to having their opinion being treated respectfully.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Flyin Ryan »

"Political balance" of historical Supreme Courts post-World War II on:

(Bear in mind that by modern standards Eisenhower and Nixon would be considered "liberal Republicans" judicially. So nominal party affiliation guiding who you select really does not work if you're chasing this phantom notion of "balance" because there is no such thing as judicial parties. Eisenhower pick Warren when he was Supreme Justice is considered the archetypal "liberal era of the court" and you can look at the picks of Nixon and Ford for Justices you know about.)
1/1/1945: Democrat picks 7 (all FDR), Republican picks 2 (both Hoover)
1945 - Hoover pick Roberts leaves, Truman replaces him with Burton (Dem 8-1)
1946 - Hoover pick Stone leaves, Truman replaces him with Vinson (Dem 9-0, Hoover's influence on the Supreme Court is over)
1949 - FDR picks Murphy and Rutlege leaves, Truman replaces them with Clark and Minton (Dem 9-0)
1953 - Truman pick Vinson leaves, Eisenhower replaces him with Warren (Dem 8-1)
1954 - FDR pick Jackson leaves, Eisenhower replaces him with [arlan (Dem 7-2)
1956 - Truman pick Minton leaves, Eisenhower replaces him with Brennan (Dem 6-3)
1957 - FDR pick Reed leaves, Eisenhower replaces him with Whittaker (Dem 5-4)
1958 - Truman pick Burton leaves, Eisenhower replaces him with Stewart (Rep 5-4)
1962 - Eisenhower pick Whittaker and FDR pick Frankfurter leave, Kennedy replaces them with Goldberg and White (Dem 5-4: Eisenhower 4, FDR 2, Kennedy 2, Truman 1)
1965 - Kennedy pick Goldberg leaves, Johnson replaces him with Fortas (Dem 5-4)
1967 - Truman pick Clark leaves, Johnson replaces him with Marshall (Dem 5-4, Truman's influence on Supreme Court over)
1969 - Johnson pick Fortas and Eisenhower pick Warren leave, Nixon replaces them with Burger and Hlackmun (Rep 5-4)
1971 - FDR pick Black and Eisenhower pick Harlan leave, Nixon replaces them with Rehnquist and Powell (Rep 6-3: Nixon 4, Eisenhower 2, Johnson 1, Kennedy 1, FDR 1)
1975 - FDR pick Douglas leaves, Ford replaces him with Stevens (Rep 7-2, FDR's influence on the Supreme Court is over)

Carter had no vacancies during his term.

1981 - Eisenhower pick Stewart leaves, Reagan replaces him with Day O'Conner - 1st female Justice (Rep 7-2)
1986 - Nixon pick Burger leaves, Reagan replaces him with Scalia (Rep 7-2)
1987 - Nixon pick Powell leaves, Reagan replaces him with Kennedy (Rep 7-2)
1990 - Eisenhower pick Brennan leaves, G.H.W. Bush replaces him with Souter (Rep 7-2, Eisenhower's influence on the Supreme Court is over)
1991 - Johnson pick Marshall leaves, G.H.W. Bush replaces him with Thomas (Rep 8-1, Johnson's influence on the Supreme Court is over)
1993 - Kennedy pick White leaves, Clinton replaces him with Ginsburg (Rep 8-1, Kennedy's influence on the Supreme Court is over)
1994 - Nixon pick Blackmun leaves, Clinton replaces him with Breyer (Rep 7-2)
2005 - Nixon pick Rehnquist leaves, G.W. Bush replaces him with Roberts (Rep 7-2, Nixon's influence on the Supreme Court is over)
2006 - Reagan pick Day O'Connor leaves, G.W. Bush replaces her with Alito (Rep 7-2)
2009 - G.H.W. Bush pick Souter leaves, Obama replaces him with Sotomayor (Rep 6-3)
2010 - Ford pick Stevens leaves, Obama replaces him with Kagan (Rep 5-4, Ford's influence on the Supreme Court is over)
2016 - Reagan pick Scalia leaves, Trump replaces him with Gorsuch (Rep 5-4)
2018 - Reagan pick Kennedy leaves, Trump replaces him with Kavanaugh (Rep 5-4, Reagan's influence on the Supreme Court is over)
2020 - Clinton pick Ginsburg leaves, Trump replaces her with Barrett (Rep 6-3)
Anyone that talks about "political balance should be on the Supreme Court" is quite frankly intentionally ignorant on history.

I have the same point here about Democrats I do about redistricting. "We schemed the system forever when we were in charge (Congress 1954 to 1994, my home state of North Carolina from 1876 until 2000), and now that we're on the losing side, we've found religion." To that I say F#*K YOU!

I expect the next time they are in the Senate minority they will come out pro-filibuster.
Last edited by Flyin Ryan on Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Zico »

piquant wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:46 pm
La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:41 pm
piquant wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:53 pm
La soule wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:34 pm
Zico wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:32 pm

Where is he/she from?
Wales I believe.

Apologies in advance if I am wrong :uhoh:
Harsh indeed! English, albeit with a Welsh mother.

Perhaps it was the Welsh blood which initially drew a slow response from me, such I was halfway to posting back in some very bad French with some thoughts on liberty and despotism espousing thoughts form the likes of Benjamin Constant before I realised why I was being asked to stick to the French
You can be an honorary Frenchman as well if you want to :thumbup:
That would indeed be an honour. I actually started out less a rugby fan and more a fan of the team in Blue, back before I'd even grasped the concept of nationalism, certainly as far as the rugby went. Mostly rugby was a boring thing my father and grandfather watched, but the team of Blanco and the gang was something that little bit special
Serge Blanco changed the game in the NH.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by puku »

Mick Mannock wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:26 pm Bleach :lol:

Still peddling that one :lol:
What type of disinfectant to be used, Trump didn't elaborate.

Bleach is a perfectly acceptable disinfectant.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

puku wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:01 pm
Mick Mannock wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:26 pm Bleach :lol:

Still peddling that one :lol:
What type of disinfectant to be used, Trump didn't elaborate.

Bleach is a perfectly acceptable disinfectant.
I don't imagine that bit of stupidity from Trump is going to stop being funny anytime soon, and he was terrific comedy value other than it being beyond disturbing that so little competence could be actively sought in a leader of a nation.

Biden is just pish poor as an option, and still he's orders of magnitude better. The worrying part is how low can America go next time, you wouldn't have thought they'd stoop as low as Reagan but they jumped at that chance, then jumped at the chance to get dummer with Bush Jnr. (at least in how he presented) and much, much dummer with Trump.

The supposed front runner if not Trump is DeSantis, who might be another Bush Jnr in terms of being intentionally stupid in public. So perhaps he's out because looking at his schooling you wouldn't think you'd graduate from Harvard and Yale and actually be pro Covid, so he might merely be a disingenuous piece of shit, and that's not ticking the stupid box in the right way
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Fat Old Git »

It's says quite a lot about how terrible Trump was that Biden seems really good by comparison.
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by TheFrog »

Flyin Ryan wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:59 pm Market health. Obligatory "this is from ZeroHedge".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einho ... completely
What follows next is a tour de force from Einhorn lashing out at all the ways the market is broken, and how the Reddit insanity of Q1 exposed it for all to see:
In late January, the market came to focus on companies with large short interests. Despite having a diversified portfolio, a number of our positions fell into this group and experienced sudden, sharp rises. We adjusted to the dynamic by reducing our exposure to single name shorts, both in number and sizing. To mitigate the potentially uncomfortable net long bias that would have resulted, we added macro hedges of market index and index option shorts. While we do not expect this to be a permanent change, we will evaluate and modify as we go. The performance of our short portfolio in 2020 and in early 2021 was unacceptable, so change is certainly needed. If we swing a little less hard, we should hit more balls. We have also revised our internal analyst incentive structure to fully emphasize alpha creation.

Much has been made of the short-squeezes in late January. In fact, Congress held hearings, where it called the leaders of Robinhood, Melvin Capital and Citadel and an individual investor who made a great call on GameStop (GME) to testify. We have a few thoughts about this to share.

First, it is very healthy for market participants to discuss and debate stocks. This is true both privately and publicly. There are rules about fraud and manipulation that need to be followed, but investors discussing why they think GME (or any other stock) should go up or down ought to be encouraged. There is no reason to drag anyone before Congress for making a stock pick.

Second, it is also fine to make bad stock picks. If a hedge fund takes a big position in a stock and is wrong, it loses money. Isn’t this how it is supposed to work?

Third, payment for order flow is just disguised commissions. We are in a world where consumers, especially young ones, expect internet services to be free, or at least free to them. A quote widely attributed to Richard Serra about commercial TV in 1973 says it best: “You’re not the customer; you’re the product.” If you want the broker to work for you, pay a commission.

Fourth, Robinhood suspended trading in certain stocks because it was undercapitalized. It is possible that it wasn’t following the regulatory requirements. A regulatory sanction is probably appropriate – but as we’ll discuss below, we won’t be holding our breath.
The punchline: Einhorn slamming Chamath and Elon for pouring the "real jet fuel" on the GME squeeze:
Finally, we note that the real jet fuel on the GME squeeze came from Chamath Palihapitiya and Elon Musk, whose appearances on TV and Twitter, respectively, at a critical moment further destabilized the situation. Mr. Palihapitiya controls SoFi, which competes with Robinhood, and left us with the impression that by destabilizing GME he could harm a competitor. As for Mr. Musk, we are going to defend him, half-heartedly. If regulators wanted Elon Musk to stop manipulating stocks, they should have done so with more than a light slap on the wrist when they accused him of manipulating Tesla’s shares in 2018. The laws don’t apply to him and he can do whatever he wants.

Many who would never support defunding the police have supported – and for all intents and purposes have succeeded – in almost completely defanging, if not defunding, the regulators. For the most part, quasi-anarchy appears to rule in markets. Sure, Dr. Michael Burry, famed for his role in The Big Short, reportedly received a visit from the SEC after tweeting warnings about recent market trends – and decided to stop publicly speaking truth to power. But for the most part, there is no cop on the beat. It’s as if there are no financial fraud prosecutors; companies and managements that are emboldened enough to engage in malfeasance have little to fear.
Einhorn then concludes with three anecdotes to demonstrate his argument that this is not only an "anything goes" market where crime is rampant, but proving just how broken the market has become.

First, consider the investigation of Tether by the Office of the Attorney General of New York (OAG). As Einhorn explains, "tether is a cryptocurrency that is always worth a dollar (the value is “tethered” to the dollar). Tether is one of the largest cryptocurrencies with about $40 billion outstanding, yet it has not been audited or regulated in any serious manner. In theory, Tether is supposed to have $1 of cash backing every Tether issued. Except it didn’t, at least when it was investigated." Incidentally, for anyone still confused, Tether is how the Chinese launder billions in domestic funds abroad and outside the Chinese firewall as we explained in December, although so far few have the desire to expose this reality. In any case, here is Einhorn's lament:
The OAG conducted a two-year probe and found that Tether deceived clients and the market by overstating reserves and hiding approximately $850 million of losses around the globe. Tether and its sponsor, Bitfinex, “recklessly and unlawfully covered up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going and protect their bottom lines,” said the OAG. Further, “Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie.”

Did the OAG shut down Tether? Did anyone get arrested or even lose their job? Was the regulatory infrastructure changed to make sure this doesn’t happen again? No, of course not. The OAG assessed an $18.5 million penalty and Tether agreed to discontinue “any trading activity with New Yorkers.” It was as if Bernie Madoff had been told to pay a small fine and stop ripping off New Yorkers, but to go ahead and have fun with the Palm Beach crowd.
Einhorn next highlights one of the stocks most hated by the bearish community: GSX:
The media is focused on how the banks allowed excessive leverage and poorly (or properly) managed their risks. The real story is how Arch-Egos was able to buy up most of the float of GSX Techedu, causing the stock to soar 400% in the face of unrefuted allegations of massive fraud. The SEC has an ongoing investigation of GSX but appears to not have noticed a single fund (or a small group of funds) essentially cornering the market. A traditionalist could say this was market manipulation and transparently illegal.
The professional poker player finally points out some of the insane moves observed in pennystocks in Q1, focusing on a tiny deli owner in rural NJ:
Strange things happen to all kinds of stocks. Last year, on one day in June, the stocks of about a dozen bankrupt companies roughly doubled on enormous volume. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported a boom in penny stocks.

Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September. HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8. The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious.
We don't find it at all surprising that Einhorn's conclusion from his capital markets observations over the past quarter is identical to ours, when we discussed the insane stock moves that dominated much of January and February:
"From a traditional perspective, the market is fractured and possibly in the process of breaking completely."
Interest rates have to go up, and when they do a lot of people will be kicking and screaming.
Scary stuff

Time to invest in real estate. But here in the US, you can't buy anything destined to last. In France, we say invest in stone but here it is all wood and cardboard...
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by BokJock »

Flockwitt wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:05 pm Gosh. Joe's doing a great job isn't he. :thumbup:
Probably the best US president ever
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Jeff the Bear »

BokJock wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:52 am
Flockwitt wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:05 pm Gosh. Joe's doing a great job isn't he. :thumbup:
Probably the best US president ever
Certainly not the worst...and that is a distinct improvement. :thumbup:
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

TheFrog wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:35 am
Flyin Ryan wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:59 pm Market health. Obligatory "this is from ZeroHedge".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einho ... completely

Scary stuff

Time to invest in real estate. But here in the US, you can't buy anything destined to last. In France, we say invest in stone but here it is all wood and cardboard...
Scare and conspiracy stories tend to be a theme for Russian propaganda sites, for some reason
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Mick Mannock »

Jeff the Bear wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:03 am
BokJock wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:52 am
Flockwitt wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:05 pm Gosh. Joe's doing a great job isn't he. :thumbup:
Probably the best US president ever
Certainly not the worst...and that is a distinct improvement. :thumbup:
Give it time, although he would have to go some to equal some of the crud that were in office prior to the 20th C

Swalwell and Schiff are scum BTW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNc9h8aFU2o
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by TheFrog »

piquant wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:06 am
TheFrog wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:35 am
Flyin Ryan wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:59 pm Market health. Obligatory "this is from ZeroHedge".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einho ... completely

Scary stuff

Time to invest in real estate. But here in the US, you can't buy anything destined to last. In France, we say invest in stone but here it is all wood and cardboard...
Scare and conspiracy stories tend to be a theme for Russian propaganda sites, for some reason
That story about the NJ grovery is unbelievable but I checked and it is true. :shock:
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

TheFrog wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:58 pm
piquant wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:06 am
TheFrog wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:35 am
Flyin Ryan wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:59 pm Market health. Obligatory "this is from ZeroHedge".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einho ... completely

Scary stuff

Time to invest in real estate. But here in the US, you can't buy anything destined to last. In France, we say invest in stone but here it is all wood and cardboard...
Scare and conspiracy stories tend to be a theme for Russian propaganda sites, for some reason
That story about the NJ grovery is unbelievable but I checked and it is true. :shock:
Not sure what the story is there, but it's not a site I'd click onto
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by mightyreds »

Great episode of Tucker Carlson, highlighting the without-values coalition of CIA-FBI-Democrats and their operating mode of 'whatever gains you want to achieve for yourself, create a lie that supports it. When you are no longer interested in achieving that end, create another story that refutes what you once insisted was the truth, and don't bat an eyelid when contradicting yourself' (example: Trump wanted to withdraw troops from Afghanistan; CIA created story that Putin was paying a bounty to Taliban who killed US service personnel, so Senate voted to stay, to defy Putin.Now that Biden wants to take the troops out, they have released a report that the first story was not true - don't call them liars, though). This newscast also contains the best character assessment of Biden yet:"Joe Biden doesn't believe a single word that comes out of his mouth." And neither should we:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=199uwd0iQO4
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by Eugenius »

Tucker Carlson ?

:lol:
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by piquant »

The other fat orange wanker
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Re: U.S. politics thread and Joe Biden-the Ronan O'Gara of U.S. Presidents

Post by TheFrog »

piquant wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:28 pm
TheFrog wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:58 pm
piquant wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:06 am
TheFrog wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:35 am
Flyin Ryan wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:59 pm Market health. Obligatory "this is from ZeroHedge".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einho ... completely

Scary stuff

Time to invest in real estate. But here in the US, you can't buy anything destined to last. In France, we say invest in stone but here it is all wood and cardboard...
Scare and conspiracy stories tend to be a theme for Russian propaganda sites, for some reason
That story about the NJ grovery is unbelievable but I checked and it is true. :shock:
Not sure what the story is there, but it's not a site I'd click onto
I found the news on CBS.
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