Aliens are Real - Expert

[Mog The Almighty]

We have absolutely no idea if life is unique to earth or exists elsewhere. The odds are 50:50 at the moment. We just don’t know.

I like to think there is life out there (that hasn’t signed a deal with the US) but that is more hope than anything else.

I'm nit-picking because I do agree broadly, but we don't even know the odds. One could argue that given zero evidence with some investigation, the odds are less than even. We have zero evidence for or against there being a purple teapot in the center of the moon, but the chance isn't 50:50.

[Mog The Almighty]

Mog:

Yeah, I agree with all that. Still life needn't be in our "neighbourhood". Even if a typical galaxy only throws up a couple of instances of life it still counts.

Also there is no need to assume any living planet will currently harbour a technological civilisation. After all ours has only been producing detectable technology for a bit over 100 years. That's in a history of more than three billion years of life.

And if an alien probe actually visited Earth way back, say, in the Silurian, there's bugger all chance that we'd ever know about it.

Yes of course. I'm not saying any of this is proof that we are alone. Its just that its not outside the realms of possibility that we actually would have detected any relatively recent nearby alien civilizations. In fact we could even have detected long dead civilizations that sent out signals hundreds of millions of years ago and are only just reaching us despite them being all long gone.

But we've received nothing at all.

That is of course not proof that no alien life exists anywhere, but it is strong evidence that if it does exist, its pretty bloody rare (unfortunately).

It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

[koroke hangareka]

...It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

No, of course it isn't, nothing is. Still, the Fermi Paradox annoys me. It seems akin to somebody who has spent his life visiting the rockpool at Coogee saying that he has never seen any evidence for the existence of sharks. Or maybe the existence of of parrotfish. Or ichthyosaurs. I don't even know what would be an appropriate point for comparison, which is part of the point.

The Universe is truly vast. Maybe once we've explored a few tens of thousands of planets (easy) in a few tens of thousands of galaxies (harder) we'll have some idea of what's going on out there.

[MrJonno]

Mog:

Yeah, I agree with all that. Still life needn't be in our "neighbourhood". Even if a typical galaxy only throws up a couple of instances of life it still counts.

Also there is no need to assume any living planet will currently harbour a technological civilisation. After all ours has only been producing detectable technology for a bit over 100 years. That's in a history of more than three billion years of life.

And if an alien probe actually visited Earth way back, say, in the Silurian, there's bugger all chance that we'd ever know about it.

Yes of course. I'm not saying any of this is proof that we are alone. Its just that its not outside the realms of possibility that we actually would have detected any relatively recent nearby alien civilizations. In fact we could even have detected long dead civilizations that sent out signals hundreds of millions of years ago and are only just reaching us despite them being all long gone.

But we've received nothing at all.

That is of course not proof that no alien life exists anywhere, but it is strong evidence that if it does exist, its pretty bloody rare (unfortunately).

It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

You say we've received nothing at all as if we have been searching everywhere for millions of years. The world is 4 billion years old and it is only in less that the last 200 years that we would have been able to detect anything sent our way. So we're looking for a signal sent from.... anywhere in the Universe.... randomly to us for some reason..... immediately?

That of course doesn't mean there is anything out there. I think the most obvious reason why we may be alone is because we could well be the first.

[message #2527204]

Mog:

Yeah, I agree with all that. Still life needn't be in our "neighbourhood". Even if a typical galaxy only throws up a couple of instances of life it still counts.

Also there is no need to assume any living planet will currently harbour a technological civilisation. After all ours has only been producing detectable technology for a bit over 100 years. That's in a history of more than three billion years of life.

And if an alien probe actually visited Earth way back, say, in the Silurian, there's bugger all chance that we'd ever know about it.

Yes of course. I'm not saying any of this is proof that we are alone. Its just that its not outside the realms of possibility that we actually would have detected any relatively recent nearby alien civilizations. In fact we could even have detected long dead civilizations that sent out signals hundreds of millions of years ago and are only just reaching us despite them being all long gone.

But we've received nothing at all.

That is of course not proof that no alien life exists anywhere, but it is strong evidence that if it does exist, its pretty bloody rare (unfortunately).

It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

You say we've received nothing at all as if we have been searching everywhere for millions of years. The world is 4 billion years old and it is only in less that the last 200 years that we would have been able to detect anything sent our way. So we're looking for a signal sent from.... anywhere in the Universe.... randomly to us for some reason..... immediately?

That of course doesn't mean there is anything out there. I think the most obvious reason why we may be alone is because we could well be the first.

The Keppler 444 terrestrial planets are 11 billion years old. A lot can happen in a million years.

[Mog The Almighty]

...It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

No, of course it isn't, nothing is. Still, the Fermi Paradox annoys me. It seems akin to somebody who has spent his life visiting the rockpool at Coogee saying that he has never seen any evidence for the existence of sharks. Or maybe the existence of of parrotfish. Or ichthyosaurs. I don't even know what would be an appropriate point for comparison, which is part of the point.

The Universe is truly vast. Maybe once we've explored a few tens of thousands of planets (easy) in a few tens of thousands of galaxies (harder) we'll have some idea of what's going on out there.

I don't think thats a good analogy really.

Its not limiting itself to anything and its not proof of anything either, its just a paradox.

But the fact remains we have absolutely zero evidence and we're not limiting ourself to examining a rock pool either, we're examining as much of the cosmos as possible.

I think the paradox is basically saying that given common estimations for alien life based on goldilocks zones, age of the universe vs time for intellugent life to evolve, numbers of planets etc., then statistically we should have found something by now, so we're either unlucky or the estimates are wrong.

But its really not a proof, its just an interesting thought experiment. Given we're working with a sample size of 1 to generate many of those estimates, we can be almost sure they're wrong anyway.

What I believe we can be pretty sure about though is that if it does exist, intelligent alien life is not common. At least not in our neck of the woods.

[globus]

A lien is a lawful right, like a mortgage. They do exist!

[koroke hangareka]

...I don't think thats a good analogy really.
...

It probably isn't

[Mog The Almighty]

Mog:

Yeah, I agree with all that. Still life needn't be in our "neighbourhood". Even if a typical galaxy only throws up a couple of instances of life it still counts.

Also there is no need to assume any living planet will currently harbour a technological civilisation. After all ours has only been producing detectable technology for a bit over 100 years. That's in a history of more than three billion years of life.

And if an alien probe actually visited Earth way back, say, in the Silurian, there's bugger all chance that we'd ever know about it.

Yes of course. I'm not saying any of this is proof that we are alone. Its just that its not outside the realms of possibility that we actually would have detected any relatively recent nearby alien civilizations. In fact we could even have detected long dead civilizations that sent out signals hundreds of millions of years ago and are only just reaching us despite them being all long gone.

But we've received nothing at all.

That is of course not proof that no alien life exists anywhere, but it is strong evidence that if it does exist, its pretty bloody rare (unfortunately).

It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

You say we've received nothing at all as if we have been searching everywhere for millions of years. The world is 4 billion years old and it is only in less that the last 200 years that we would have been able to detect anything sent our way. So we're looking for a signal sent from.... anywhere in the Universe.... randomly to us for some reason..... immediately?

That of course doesn't mean there is anything out there. I think the most obvious reason why we may be alone is because we could well be the first.

No, not randomly "sent to us". Just echoing through the cosmos in all directions. Like a lot of the signals we send out. And when I say signal, I don't necessarily mean a radio transmission saying, "hello, is anyone out there?". I mean any sort of sign, signal or any type of evidence at all. Anything. Ranging from an alien toe nail clipping to a million year old barely detectable pattern of light, to any sort of wave signals, to a microbe in a bit of comet ice, to a spaceship landing on the white house lawn. Literally any evidence at all of any type.

So far we have absolutely nothing. Ergo speculation that intelligent (or otherwise) alien life certainly exists is premature at best.

[inactionman]

Mog:

Yeah, I agree with all that. Still life needn't be in our "neighbourhood". Even if a typical galaxy only throws up a couple of instances of life it still counts.

Also there is no need to assume any living planet will currently harbour a technological civilisation. After all ours has only been producing detectable technology for a bit over 100 years. That's in a history of more than three billion years of life.

And if an alien probe actually visited Earth way back, say, in the Silurian, there's bugger all chance that we'd ever know about it.

Yes of course. I'm not saying any of this is proof that we are alone. Its just that its not outside the realms of possibility that we actually would have detected any relatively recent nearby alien civilizations. In fact we could even have detected long dead civilizations that sent out signals hundreds of millions of years ago and are only just reaching us despite them being all long gone.

But we've received nothing at all.

That is of course not proof that no alien life exists anywhere, but it is strong evidence that if it does exist, its pretty bloody rare (unfortunately).

It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

You say we've received nothing at all as if we have been searching everywhere for millions of years. The world is 4 billion years old and it is only in less that the last 200 years that we would have been able to detect anything sent our way. So we're looking for a signal sent from.... anywhere in the Universe.... randomly to us for some reason..... immediately?

That of course doesn't mean there is anything out there. I think the most obvious reason why we may be alone is because we could well be the first.

No, not randomly "sent to us". Just echoing through the cosmos in all directions. Like a lot of the signals we send out. And when I say signal, I don't necessarily mean a radio transmission saying, "hello, is anyone out there?". I mean any sort of sign, signal or any type of evidence at all. Anything. Ranging from an alien toe nail clipping to a million year old barely detectable pattern of light, to any sort of wave signals, to a spaceship landing on the white house lawn.

So far we have none of the above. Ergo speculation that alien life certainly exists is premature at best.

We (humankind) has been able to measure signals/light/electromagnetic waves for only a blink of an eye in geological terms, so our opportunity for actually finding evidence is tiny, but your broader point stands that we have no definitive proof of life elsewhere.

We are starting to build up a view on whether what we perceive as the necessary conditions for life could exist elsewhere, and the probability of the planets aligning (excuse bad pun) in the sense of all conditions aligning and spark occurring but saying it is possible, and even likely, is not the same as saying it is definite. We could easily have missed life on bodies destroyed by a now-dead star billions of years ago, and that 'record' would be permanently lost to us, even if we could physically access the location.

(On the subject of conditions for life, I'm still not sure why the presence of water is considered essential for life. For our form of life, and life as we can comprehend it, perhaps, but of all life?)

eta: apols, I think I just repeated the previous posts back to you all. Never mind.

[Mog The Almighty]

Its okay its an interesting discussion.

Like I said its not only about signals its about any evidence whatsoever at all.

Also the fact that despite vast distances, the milky way could be physically traversed in a few million years. Given billions upon billions of opportunities that are far older than "a few million years", why have we found nothing so far? It could be from a civilisation that has been dead for a billion years. It could be the remnants of an alien probe that landed on earth a million years ago.

And if they missed us physically, It could still even be signals emanating from a probe ten million light years away that we are only receiving now.

I'm guilty of repeating the argument too here.

[MrJonno]

Mog:

Yeah, I agree with all that. Still life needn't be in our "neighbourhood". Even if a typical galaxy only throws up a couple of instances of life it still counts.

Also there is no need to assume any living planet will currently harbour a technological civilisation. After all ours has only been producing detectable technology for a bit over 100 years. That's in a history of more than three billion years of life.

And if an alien probe actually visited Earth way back, say, in the Silurian, there's bugger all chance that we'd ever know about it.

Yes of course. I'm not saying any of this is proof that we are alone. Its just that its not outside the realms of possibility that we actually would have detected any relatively recent nearby alien civilizations. In fact we could even have detected long dead civilizations that sent out signals hundreds of millions of years ago and are only just reaching us despite them being all long gone.

But we've received nothing at all.

That is of course not proof that no alien life exists anywhere, but it is strong evidence that if it does exist, its pretty bloody rare (unfortunately).

It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

You say we've received nothing at all as if we have been searching everywhere for millions of years. The world is 4 billion years old and it is only in less that the last 200 years that we would have been able to detect anything sent our way. So we're looking for a signal sent from.... anywhere in the Universe.... randomly to us for some reason..... immediately?

That of course doesn't mean there is anything out there. I think the most obvious reason why we may be alone is because we could well be the first.

No, not randomly "sent to us". Just echoing through the cosmos in all directions. Like a lot of the signals we send out. And when I say signal, I don't necessarily mean a radio transmission saying, "hello, is anyone out there?". I mean any sort of sign, signal or any type of evidence at all. Anything. Ranging from an alien toe nail clipping to a million year old barely detectable pattern of light, to any sort of wave signals, to a microbe in a bit of comet ice, to a spaceship landing on the white house lawn. Literally any evidence at all of any type.

So far we have absolutely nothing. Ergo speculation that intelligent (or otherwise) alien life certainly exists is premature at best.

First the pedantic bit, speculation isn't premature because speculate is all we can do at the moment. I know you say 'certainly exists' but that's a straw man so I ignored it.

And while I accept your point that we have no evidence (because I'm not a lunatic), I would say that we are essentially bald apes with porn phones, we're a long way away from being able to gather any evidence, so I feel the lack of evidence argument is a red herring. In a billion years when we might have explored a bit, then we can say, "we still have no evidence" but its our first morning, we've just crawled out of bed and we haven't even scratched our arse yet, there is still a bit of work to be down before the lack of evidence argument has any weight.

[message #2527204]

Mog:

Yeah, I agree with all that. Still life needn't be in our "neighbourhood". Even if a typical galaxy only throws up a couple of instances of life it still counts.

Also there is no need to assume any living planet will currently harbour a technological civilisation. After all ours has only been producing detectable technology for a bit over 100 years. That's in a history of more than three billion years of life.

And if an alien probe actually visited Earth way back, say, in the Silurian, there's bugger all chance that we'd ever know about it.

Yes of course. I'm not saying any of this is proof that we are alone. Its just that its not outside the realms of possibility that we actually would have detected any relatively recent nearby alien civilizations. In fact we could even have detected long dead civilizations that sent out signals hundreds of millions of years ago and are only just reaching us despite them being all long gone.

But we've received nothing at all.

That is of course not proof that no alien life exists anywhere, but it is strong evidence that if it does exist, its pretty bloody rare (unfortunately).

It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

You say we've received nothing at all as if we have been searching everywhere for millions of years. The world is 4 billion years old and it is only in less that the last 200 years that we would have been able to detect anything sent our way. So we're looking for a signal sent from.... anywhere in the Universe.... randomly to us for some reason..... immediately?

That of course doesn't mean there is anything out there. I think the most obvious reason why we may be alone is because we could well be the first.

No, not randomly "sent to us". Just echoing through the cosmos in all directions. Like a lot of the signals we send out. And when I say signal, I don't necessarily mean a radio transmission saying, "hello, is anyone out there?". I mean any sort of sign, signal or any type of evidence at all. Anything. Ranging from an alien toe nail clipping to a million year old barely detectable pattern of light, to any sort of wave signals, to a spaceship landing on the white house lawn.

So far we have none of the above. Ergo speculation that alien life certainly exists is premature at best.

We (humankind) has been able to measure signals/light/electromagnetic waves for only a blink of an eye in geological terms, so our opportunity for actually finding evidence is tiny, but your broader point stands that we have no definitive proof of life elsewhere.

We are starting to build up a view on whether what we perceive as the necessary conditions for life could exist elsewhere, and the probability of the planets aligning (excuse bad pun) in the sense of all conditions aligning and spark occurring but saying it is possible, and even likely, is not the same as saying it is definite. We could easily have missed life on bodies destroyed by a now-dead star billions of years ago, and that 'record' would be permanently lost to us, even if we could physically access the location.

(On the subject of conditions for life, I'm still not sure why the presence of water is considered essential for life. For our form of life, and life as we can comprehend it, perhaps, but of all life?)

eta: apols, I think I just repeated the previous posts back to you all. Never mind.

Easier to look for a form of life we know exists and where we know the conditions that are necessary.

[Mog The Almighty]

Mog:

Yeah, I agree with all that. Still life needn't be in our "neighbourhood". Even if a typical galaxy only throws up a couple of instances of life it still counts.

Also there is no need to assume any living planet will currently harbour a technological civilisation. After all ours has only been producing detectable technology for a bit over 100 years. That's in a history of more than three billion years of life.

And if an alien probe actually visited Earth way back, say, in the Silurian, there's bugger all chance that we'd ever know about it.

Yes of course. I'm not saying any of this is proof that we are alone. Its just that its not outside the realms of possibility that we actually would have detected any relatively recent nearby alien civilizations. In fact we could even have detected long dead civilizations that sent out signals hundreds of millions of years ago and are only just reaching us despite them being all long gone.

But we've received nothing at all.

That is of course not proof that no alien life exists anywhere, but it is strong evidence that if it does exist, its pretty bloody rare (unfortunately).

It is also not outside the realms of possibility that we are actually alone.

You say we've received nothing at all as if we have been searching everywhere for millions of years. The world is 4 billion years old and it is only in less that the last 200 years that we would have been able to detect anything sent our way. So we're looking for a signal sent from.... anywhere in the Universe.... randomly to us for some reason..... immediately?

That of course doesn't mean there is anything out there. I think the most obvious reason why we may be alone is because we could well be the first.

No, not randomly "sent to us". Just echoing through the cosmos in all directions. Like a lot of the signals we send out. And when I say signal, I don't necessarily mean a radio transmission saying, "hello, is anyone out there?". I mean any sort of sign, signal or any type of evidence at all. Anything. Ranging from an alien toe nail clipping to a million year old barely detectable pattern of light, to any sort of wave signals, to a microbe in a bit of comet ice, to a spaceship landing on the white house lawn. Literally any evidence at all of any type.

So far we have absolutely nothing. Ergo speculation that intelligent (or otherwise) alien life certainly exists is premature at best.

First the pedantic bit, speculation isn't premature because speculate is all we can do at the moment. I know you say 'certainly exists' but that's a straw man so I ignored it.

And while I accept your point that we have no evidence (because I'm not a lunatic), I would say that we are essentially bald apes with porn phones, we're a long way away from being able to gather any evidence, so I feel the lack of evidence argument is a red herring. In a billion years when we might have explored a bit, then we can say, "we still have no evidence" but its our first morning, we've just crawled out of bed and we haven't even scratched our arse yet, there is still a bit of work to be down before the lack of evidence argument has any weight.

Well, this is the problem really.

The Fermi Paradox is basically saying, "we should have some evidence already, given all the factors", and you're saying, "it's next to meaningless because we haven't even begun to look properly".

I think that the Fermi Paradox is asserting that DESPITE being relatively (relative to what? ... relative to imagined possibilities) young and technologicially immature, we STILL should have found some evidence by now simply because of the sheer numbers and masses of chance involved. So just saying, "but we're too young and technologically immature" isn't really a very good rebuttal imo.

That's the paradox really ... that the huge numbers involved mean that intelligent alien life is everywhere... but those same huge numbers should mean that we've got evidence of that too. It's a "can't have your cake and eat it too" sort of thing.

[MrJonno]

Well, this is the problem really.

The Fermi Paradox is basically saying, "we should have some evidence already, given all the factors", and you're saying, "it's next to meaningless because we haven't even begun to look properly".

I think that the Fermi Paradox is asserting that DESPITE being relatively (relative to what? ... relative to imagined possibilities) young and technologicially immature, we STILL should have found some evidence by now simply because of the sheer numbers and masses of chance involved. So just saying, "but we're too young and technologically immature" isn't really a very good rebuttal imo.

That's the paradox really ... that the huge numbers involved mean that intelligent alien life is everywhere... but those same huge numbers should mean that we've got evidence of that too. It's a "can't have your cake and eat it too" sort of thing.

I can resolve that easily. The Fermi Paradox is bollix, what I say is sensible. CIrcle squared.

We have porn phones and sex apps. Imagine what a sufficiently advanced civilization can develop to really retard future generations and dampen any interest in the intellectual advances required to enable interstellar travel, not to mention the amount of forward planning and long term sacrifice required as opposed to increasingly instantaneous gratification on hand.

[Mog The Almighty]

This conversation gave me the will to brave listening to the rest of the recent Rogan podcast with Jaques Vallée and James Fox which I turned off days ago because the nonsense was triggering me too much.

F-ck theyre stupid.

The Jacques Vallée fellah seems to be the smartest one out of all these cooky guests he's been having on but even he is not that smart. And they're all super self-deluded, its almost a bit pathetic to witness.

Their reasoning and "proofs" are just so, so bad. Most of the "proof" are appeals to authority. "This fighter pilot saw it and HE wouldn't lie" type shit. And lots of third and fourth hand versions of events. And none of it passes the Occam's Razor test.

Its amazing that someone can't put two and two together regarding why is all UFO footage in grainy black and white footage where you can't tell what it really is for sure? Well because all the clear, high definition footage has proven NOT to be aliens. Lol. Duh.

[Winnie]

We have absolutely no idea if life is unique to earth or exists elsewhere. The odds are 50:50 at the moment. We just don’t know.

I like to think there is life out there (that hasn’t signed a deal with the US) but that is more hope than anything else.

Why are the odds 50:50
We have set foot on one planet and there is life on it.
There are more planets in the universe than grains of sand on all the beaches of the earth.
Sounds a lot better than 50:50 to me

[koroke hangareka]

We have absolutely no idea if life is unique to earth or exists elsewhere. The odds are 50:50 at the moment. We just don’t know.

I like to think there is life out there (that hasn’t signed a deal with the US) but that is more hope than anything else.

Why are the odds 50:50
We have set foot on one planet and there is life on it.
There are more planets in the universe than grains of sand on all the beaches of the earth.
Sounds a lot better than 50:50 to me

Google "Anthropic Principle".

[New Guy 2]

This conversation gave me the will to brave listening to the rest of the recent Rogan podcast with Jaques Vallée and James Fox which I turned off days ago because the nonsense was triggering me too much.

F-ck theyre stupid.

The Jacques Vallée fellah seems to be the smartest one out of all these cooky guests he's been having on but even he is not that smart. And they're all super self-deluded, its almost a bit pathetic to witness.

Their reasoning and "proofs" are just so, so bad. Most of the "proof" are appeals to authority. "This fighter pilot saw it and HE wouldn't lie" type shit. And lots of third and fourth hand versions of events. And none of it passes the Occam's Razor test.

Its amazing that someone can't put two and two together regarding why is all UFO footage in grainy black and white footage where you can't tell what it really is for sure? Well because all the clear, high definition footage has proven NOT to be aliens. Lol. Duh.

Out of interest Mog, are you playing devils advocate or do you believe there's no other life out there in the universe?

[A5D5E5]

We have absolutely no idea if life is unique to earth or exists elsewhere. The odds are 50:50 at the moment. We just don’t know.

I like to think there is life out there (that hasn’t signed a deal with the US) but that is more hope than anything else.

Why are the odds 50:50
We have set foot on one planet and there is life on it.
There are more planets in the universe than grains of sand on all the beaches of the earth.
Sounds a lot better than 50:50 to me

The odds are either 1 or 0. We just don't know which one. That doesn't mean you give both outcomes the same likelihood though.

[message #2527204]

We have absolutely no idea if life is unique to earth or exists elsewhere. The odds are 50:50 at the moment. We just don’t know.

I like to think there is life out there (that hasn’t signed a deal with the US) but that is more hope than anything else.

Why are the odds 50:50
We have set foot on one planet and there is life on it.
There are more planets in the universe than grains of sand on all the beaches of the earth.
Sounds a lot better than 50:50 to me

Google "Anthropic Principle".

In what contaxt?

[Mog The Almighty]

This conversation gave me the will to brave listening to the rest of the recent Rogan podcast with Jaques Vallée and James Fox which I turned off days ago because the nonsense was triggering me too much.

F-ck theyre stupid.

The Jacques Vallée fellah seems to be the smartest one out of all these cooky guests he's been having on but even he is not that smart. And they're all super self-deluded, its almost a bit pathetic to witness.

Their reasoning and "proofs" are just so, so bad. Most of the "proof" are appeals to authority. "This fighter pilot saw it and HE wouldn't lie" type shit. And lots of third and fourth hand versions of events. And none of it passes the Occam's Razor test.

Its amazing that someone can't put two and two together regarding why is all UFO footage in grainy black and white footage where you can't tell what it really is for sure? Well because all the clear, high definition footage has proven NOT to be aliens. Lol. Duh.

Out of interest Mog, are you playing devils advocate or do you believe there's no other life out there in the universe?

Neither, I'm saying exactly what I think: we don't know. Maybe we are the only life that has ever evolved in the history of the universe, its entirely possible.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet that life has evolved elsewhere but we just can't know that for sure.

If you're referring to aliens visiting us as explained by the loons in Rogan's podcasts then I absolutely believe that they are full of shit and/or deluded.

[koroke hangareka]

We have absolutely no idea if life is unique to earth or exists elsewhere. The odds are 50:50 at the moment. We just don’t know.

I like to think there is life out there (that hasn’t signed a deal with the US) but that is more hope than anything else.

Why are the odds 50:50
We have set foot on one planet and there is life on it.
There are more planets in the universe than grains of sand on all the beaches of the earth.
Sounds a lot better than 50:50 to me

Google "Anthropic Principle".

In what contaxt?

The context of the bolded bit in your post.

[backrow]

I don’t mind so long as the female aliens are fit like colonel Wilma deering, Princess leia, t’pol, Saint Axmin or that green one with the big tits that cadet Kirk was smashing in the first recent Trek movie

[Farva]

We have absolutely no idea if life is unique to earth or exists elsewhere. The odds are 50:50 at the moment. We just don’t know.

I like to think there is life out there (that hasn’t signed a deal with the US) but that is more hope than anything else.

Why are the odds 50:50
We have set foot on one planet and there is life on it.
There are more planets in the universe than grains of sand on all the beaches of the earth.
Sounds a lot better than 50:50 to me

The odds are 50 / 50 because we just don’t know how likely it is the life starts. Given we don’t know we have to assume they are even.

I appreciate that we know of it happening once. But we are a result of that. It doesn’t help in figuring out the likelihood of it happening again. There are somewhere like 10^23 suns out there. If 50% have planets then that is 5x10^22. What happens if the odds of life are greater than 1 in 5x10^23 planets?

[New Guy 2]

This conversation gave me the will to brave listening to the rest of the recent Rogan podcast with Jaques Vallée and James Fox which I turned off days ago because the nonsense was triggering me too much.

F-ck theyre stupid.

The Jacques Vallée fellah seems to be the smartest one out of all these cooky guests he's been having on but even he is not that smart. And they're all super self-deluded, its almost a bit pathetic to witness.

Their reasoning and "proofs" are just so, so bad. Most of the "proof" are appeals to authority. "This fighter pilot saw it and HE wouldn't lie" type shit. And lots of third and fourth hand versions of events. And none of it passes the Occam's Razor test.

Its amazing that someone can't put two and two together regarding why is all UFO footage in grainy black and white footage where you can't tell what it really is for sure? Well because all the clear, high definition footage has proven NOT to be aliens. Lol. Duh.

Out of interest Mog, are you playing devils advocate or do you believe there's no other life out there in the universe?

Neither, I'm saying exactly what I think: we don't know. Maybe we are the only life that has ever evolved in the history of the universe, its entirely possible.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet that life has evolved elsewhere but we just can't know that for sure.

If you're referring to aliens visiting us as explained by the loons in Rogan's podcasts then I absolutely believe that they are full of shit and/or deluded.

I'd say its a very safe bet that there's other life out there. Whether it exists on the next planet over, or 200 million light years away who knows but its almost certainly there.

[Mog The Almighty]

This conversation gave me the will to brave listening to the rest of the recent Rogan podcast with Jaques Vallée and James Fox which I turned off days ago because the nonsense was triggering me too much.

F-ck theyre stupid.

The Jacques Vallée fellah seems to be the smartest one out of all these cooky guests he's been having on but even he is not that smart. And they're all super self-deluded, its almost a bit pathetic to witness.

Their reasoning and "proofs" are just so, so bad. Most of the "proof" are appeals to authority. "This fighter pilot saw it and HE wouldn't lie" type shit. And lots of third and fourth hand versions of events. And none of it passes the Occam's Razor test.

Its amazing that someone can't put two and two together regarding why is all UFO footage in grainy black and white footage where you can't tell what it really is for sure? Well because all the clear, high definition footage has proven NOT to be aliens. Lol. Duh.

Out of interest Mog, are you playing devils advocate or do you believe there's no other life out there in the universe?

Neither, I'm saying exactly what I think: we don't know. Maybe we are the only life that has ever evolved in the history of the universe, its entirely possible.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet that life has evolved elsewhere but we just can't know that for sure.

If you're referring to aliens visiting us as explained by the loons in Rogan's podcasts then I absolutely believe that they are full of shit and/or deluded.

I'd say its a very safe bet that there's other life out there. Whether it exists on the next planet over, or 200 million light years away who knows but its almost certainly there.

I just don't think you can say that.

You have to know what is the chance of intelligent life evolving and surviving, and with a sample size of 1, we are simply lacking the data required to say anything about it "almost certainly". Just because it happened to evolve on earth doesn't stand to reason that it might not be incredibly rare, so rare even that it's unique even given billions of chances. We just don't know.

Anything else is just a gut hunch.

[message #2527204]

This conversation gave me the will to brave listening to the rest of the recent Rogan podcast with Jaques Vallée and James Fox which I turned off days ago because the nonsense was triggering me too much.

F-ck theyre stupid.

The Jacques Vallée fellah seems to be the smartest one out of all these cooky guests he's been having on but even he is not that smart. And they're all super self-deluded, its almost a bit pathetic to witness.

Their reasoning and "proofs" are just so, so bad. Most of the "proof" are appeals to authority. "This fighter pilot saw it and HE wouldn't lie" type shit. And lots of third and fourth hand versions of events. And none of it passes the Occam's Razor test.

Its amazing that someone can't put two and two together regarding why is all UFO footage in grainy black and white footage where you can't tell what it really is for sure? Well because all the clear, high definition footage has proven NOT to be aliens. Lol. Duh.

Out of interest Mog, are you playing devils advocate or do you believe there's no other life out there in the universe?

Neither, I'm saying exactly what I think: we don't know. Maybe we are the only life that has ever evolved in the history of the universe, its entirely possible.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet that life has evolved elsewhere but we just can't know that for sure.

If you're referring to aliens visiting us as explained by the loons in Rogan's podcasts then I absolutely believe that they are full of shit and/or deluded.

I'd say its a very safe bet that there's other life out there. Whether it exists on the next planet over, or 200 million light years away who knows but its almost certainly there.

I just don't think you can say that.

You have to know what is the chance of intelligent life evolving and surviving, and with a sample size of 1, we are simply lacking the data required to say anything about it "almost certainly". Just because it happened to evolve on earth doesn't stand to reason that it might not be incredibly rare, so rare even that it's unique even given billions of chances. We just don't know.

Anything else is just a gut hunch.

I see you've shifted those goalposts nicely to exclude all but 'intelligent' life.

[Zakar]

1. The aliens probing the jethros and cleetuses of the world are not real.

2. Given the number of planets in the universe, the idea that we're the only one to have life evolve is hilarious self centered. There is a good chance of life on Venus, and if that's proven, life is pervasive.

3. Intelligent life is the next biggest step. We've proven, sample of 1 not withstanding, that intelligent life can get smart enough to win itself out pretty quickly.

4. Intelligent life that is detectable - even less likely due to the distances. A Dyson sphere being detected might be the best opportunity. The idea that we're going to pick up the Rigel VI equivalent to Two and a Half Men is stupid.

5. Intelligent life that could be bothered visiting? unless our understanding of physics is way off, this seems unlikely in the extreme.

[Cartman]

Any life on another planet would just be amazing to me.

[Farva]

I agree with Mog here, but remove the intelligent bit.

We have absolutely no knowledge on what the catalyst for life is. Is it so unbelievably rare that in all of the planets in all of the universe that it only happened once, or is it so common that the galaxy is teeming with life?
We just dont know. Saying anything else is speculation.
Id like to think that there is life out there. But until we can demonstrate how life starts, we cant know if those conditions are likely to ever occur elsewhere.

[danny_fitz]

Only idiots believe aliens exist

I would say only people with a fundamental lack of understanding of the universe believe aliens don't exist but that it takes a fundamental lack of understanding of how fking huge it is, to believe that aliens would ever actually be able to find us let alone visit us.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

The Fermi paradox is a conflict between the argument that scale and probability seem to favor intelligent life being common in the universe, and the total lack of evidence of intelligent life having ever arisen anywhere other than on the Earth.

The first aspect of the Fermi paradox is a function of the scale or the large numbers involved: there are an estimated 200–400 billion stars in the Milky Way[25] (2–4 × 1011) and 70 sextillion (7×1022) in the observable universe.[26] Even if intelligent life occurs on only a minuscule percentage of planets around these stars, there might still be a great number of extant civilizations, and if the percentage were high enough it would produce a significant number of extant civilizations in the Milky Way. This assumes the mediocrity principle, by which the Earth is a typical planet.

The second aspect of the Fermi paradox is the argument of probability: given intelligent life's ability to overcome scarcity, and its tendency to colonize new habitats, it seems possible that at least some civilizations would be technologically advanced, seek out new resources in space, and colonize their own star system and, subsequently, surrounding star systems. Since there is no significant evidence on Earth, or elsewhere in the known universe, of other intelligent life after 13.8 billion years of the universe's history, there is a conflict requiring a resolution. Some examples of possible resolutions are that intelligent life is rarer than we think, that our assumptions about the general development or behavior of intelligent species are flawed, or, more radically, that our current scientific understanding of the nature of the universe itself is quite incomplete.

The Fermi paradox can be asked in two ways.[note 5] The first is, "Why are no aliens or their artifacts found here on Earth, or in the Solar System?" If interstellar travel is possible, even the "slow" kind nearly within the reach of Earth technology, then it would only take from 5 million to 50 million years to colonize the galaxy.[27] This is relatively brief on a geological scale, let alone a cosmological one. Since there are many stars older than the Sun, and since intelligent life might have evolved earlier elsewhere, the question then becomes why the galaxy has not been colonized already. Even if colonization is impractical or undesirable to all alien civilizations, large-scale exploration of the galaxy could be possible by probes. These might leave detectable artifacts in the Solar System, such as old probes or evidence of mining activity, but none of these have been observed.

The second form of the question is "Why do we see no signs of intelligence elsewhere in the universe?" This version does not assume interstellar travel, but includes other galaxies as well. For distant galaxies, travel times may well explain the lack of alien visits to Earth, but a sufficiently advanced civilization could potentially be observable over a significant fraction of the size of the observable universe.[28] Even if such civilizations are rare, the scale argument indicates they should exist somewhere at some point during the history of the universe, and since they could be detected from far away over a considerable period of time, many more potential sites for their origin are within range of our observation. It is unknown whether the paradox is stronger for our galaxy or for the universe as a whole.[2

[MrJonno]

I think we can all agree that with no knowledge of what is the catalyst for life on earth and no way of determining if life exists on any planets outside our solar system (and we are still determining places within out own solar system where life may exist and puzzling out ways of finding out - so it is not just the countless planets we need to look at in this search, but also any sizable moons as well!) that estimating the chances of extra-terrestial life is pure speculation...... but we can all also agree that there is more evidence not only of alien life, but that it stuck a probe up Cletus's anus than there is of corruption in the US election.

[Punter15]

Name a single instance of someone NOT from our planet winning Mr Universe. That's all the proof you need.

[Zakar]

I agree with Mog here, but remove the intelligent bit.

We have absolutely no knowledge on what the catalyst for life is. Is it so unbelievably rare that in all of the planets in all of the universe that it only happened once, or is it so common that the galaxy is teeming with life?
We just dont know. Saying anything else is speculation.
Id like to think that there is life out there. But until we can demonstrate how life starts, we cant know if those conditions are likely to ever occur elsewhere.

The second the Venus theory (Life in the atmosphere) is proven, it kind of blows that our of the water.

[Farva]

I agree with Mog here, but remove the intelligent bit.

We have absolutely no knowledge on what the catalyst for life is. Is it so unbelievably rare that in all of the planets in all of the universe that it only happened once, or is it so common that the galaxy is teeming with life?
We just dont know. Saying anything else is speculation.
Id like to think that there is life out there. But until we can demonstrate how life starts, we cant know if those conditions are likely to ever occur elsewhere.

The second the Venus theory (Life in the atmosphere) is proven, it kind of blows that our of the water.

Just to confirm life in Venus has not been proven, and life originating on Venus is definitely just an idea. There are phosphine signals which might be life, but it might be something else.
It absolutely does not blow out of the water my point.

[Zakar]

I agree with Mog here, but remove the intelligent bit.

We have absolutely no knowledge on what the catalyst for life is. Is it so unbelievably rare that in all of the planets in all of the universe that it only happened once, or is it so common that the galaxy is teeming with life?
We just dont know. Saying anything else is speculation.
Id like to think that there is life out there. But until we can demonstrate how life starts, we cant know if those conditions are likely to ever occur elsewhere.

IF The second the Venus theory (Life in the atmosphere) is proven, it kind of blows that our of the water.

Just to confirm life in Venus has not been proven, and life originating on Venus is definitely just an idea. There are phosphine signals which might be life, but it might be something else.
It absolutely does not blow out of the water my point.

Yes sorry, I missed an 'if'

[Farva]

I agree with Mog here, but remove the intelligent bit.

We have absolutely no knowledge on what the catalyst for life is. Is it so unbelievably rare that in all of the planets in all of the universe that it only happened once, or is it so common that the galaxy is teeming with life?
We just dont know. Saying anything else is speculation.
Id like to think that there is life out there. But until we can demonstrate how life starts, we cant know if those conditions are likely to ever occur elsewhere.

IF The second the Venus theory (Life in the atmosphere) is proven, it kind of blows that our of the water.

Just to confirm life in Venus has not been proven, and life originating on Venus is definitely just an idea. There are phosphine signals which might be life, but it might be something else.
It absolutely does not blow out of the water my point.

Yes sorry, I missed an 'if'

Of course. If we can prove there is life on Venus that originated on Venus, that would be a game changer.
It was a bit like when we found that other planets orbited suns outside the solar system, that was pretty huge in our understanding of how life might exist

[Clogs]

240 billion hi resolution smart phones scattered around the planet and not one clear shot of an alien anywhere?
Satellites flying overhead capturing images of the earth and not one image of an unusual unidentified flying object?

I stumbled across this recently whilst looking for bush camp sites to head off to. Google satellite image of Lake Eildon. We would have spotted them by now.

Images:

[Mog The Almighty]

Out of interest Mog, are you playing devils advocate or do you believe there's no other life out there in the universe?

Neither, I'm saying exactly what I think: we don't know. Maybe we are the only life that has ever evolved in the history of the universe, its entirely possible.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet that life has evolved elsewhere but we just can't know that for sure.

If you're referring to aliens visiting us as explained by the loons in Rogan's podcasts then I absolutely believe that they are full of shit and/or deluded.

I'd say its a very safe bet that there's other life out there. Whether it exists on the next planet over, or 200 million light years away who knows but its almost certainly there.

I just don't think you can say that.

You have to know what is the chance of intelligent life evolving and surviving, and with a sample size of 1, we are simply lacking the data required to say anything about it "almost certainly". Just because it happened to evolve on earth doesn't stand to reason that it might not be incredibly rare, so rare even that it's unique even given billions of chances. We just don't know.

Anything else is just a gut hunch.

I see you've shifted those goalposts nicely to exclude all but 'intelligent' life.

That's not really my point. You can remove the word "intelligent" if you want and the logic is still applies exactly the same and just as true. I'm not shifting anything. I only said that because we're not going to detect tecnhological signals from microbes and nor are they going to fly here in a saucer and crash in the desert or talk to the Preseident, which is more-or-less the original topic.