What is next for the GOP?

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towny
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by towny »

I’m on kid duty now. Schools out, bitches.
Sonny Blount
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Sonny Blount »

towny wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:06 pm Do they incite real world violence? Do you have a link to some? These people aren’t even big fish - you’re comparing the most high profile person in the world during a period of unprecedented US instability to dudes that have 19 followers.

Is Twitter even in Iran ffs?
There are hundreds of people whose tweeting incited BLM riots which lead to 30 deaths and laying siege to federal buildings.
bimboman
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by bimboman »

Sonny Blount wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:51 pm
towny wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:06 pm Do they incite real world violence? Do you have a link to some? These people aren’t even big fish - you’re comparing the most high profile person in the world during a period of unprecedented US instability to dudes that have 19 followers.

Is Twitter even in Iran ffs?
There are hundreds of people whose tweeting incited BLM riots which lead to 30 deaths and laying siege to federal buildings.


I assume they’re all banned now.
C69
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by C69 »

Oh well back on topic here are a few different views as to what will happen

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... p-n1253626

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2 ... 1604956604
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RodneyRegis
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by RodneyRegis »

bimboman wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:03 pm
Sonny Blount wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:51 pm
towny wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:06 pm Do they incite real world violence? Do you have a link to some? These people aren’t even big fish - you’re comparing the most high profile person in the world during a period of unprecedented US instability to dudes that have 19 followers.

Is Twitter even in Iran ffs?
There are hundreds of people whose tweeting incited BLM riots which lead to 30 deaths and laying siege to federal buildings.


I assume they’re all banned now.
Probably. But then they ACTUALLY invited violence.
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Flockwitt
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Flockwitt »

Jerome Manning wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:39 am
Sonny Blount wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:30 am
Jerome Manning wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:26 am History is going to be mental in terms of how harshly it judges the last four years.

In 30 years time, no one will admit to having supported Trump - it will be like 70 million people just vanished. Lots of people changing their tune in hindsight. Our grand kids are going to be confused as to how he got 47% of the vote.
Voting for Trump and supporting Trump are entirely different things.

The story of why 70 million voted for Trump is as much to do with aspects of the left in America over the past few years. They were rioting in the street for most of the year.
That's a really poor argument to vote Trump. The answer to "wokeness" (and I do hate wokeness) isn't Trump, it's sensible conversations between the centre right and centre left.
Is it though. It's easy to look at all of this from the outside. Yet the reality is Trump got more Black and Hispanic votes than any other Republican prior. And there has to be a reason why. I'd suggest one reason is the law and order counter-reaction to what happened with BLM. There are plenty of reasonable people who aren't interested in defunding the police.
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Whatever
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Whatever »

Colin Powell now calling himself a 'former Republican' now. Quite something when the former Sec of State for illegal war monger George W Bush thinks that the Republican Party has gone too far.
C69
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by C69 »

Flockwitt wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:16 pm
Jerome Manning wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:39 am
Sonny Blount wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:30 am
Jerome Manning wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:26 am History is going to be mental in terms of how harshly it judges the last four years.

In 30 years time, no one will admit to having supported Trump - it will be like 70 million people just vanished. Lots of people changing their tune in hindsight. Our grand kids are going to be confused as to how he got 47% of the vote.
Voting for Trump and supporting Trump are entirely different things.

The story of why 70 million voted for Trump is as much to do with aspects of the left in America over the past few years. They were rioting in the street for most of the year.
That's a really poor argument to vote Trump. The answer to "wokeness" (and I do hate wokeness) isn't Trump, it's sensible conversations between the centre right and centre left.
Is it though. It's easy to look at all of this from the outside. Yet the reality is Trump got more Black and Hispanic votes than any other Republican prior. And there has to be a reason why. I'd suggest one reason is the law and order counter-reaction to what happened with BLM. There are plenty of reasonable people who aren't interested in defunding the police.
He may have got more votes but what about breakdown of the vote by demographics this time compared to last.
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fatcat
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by fatcat »

2016

Black men 13%
Black women 4%
Latino men 32%
Latino women 25%

2020

Black men 19%
Black women 9%
Latino men 36%
Latino women 30%
towny
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by towny »

Sonny Blount wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:51 pm
towny wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:06 pm Do they incite real world violence? Do you have a link to some? These people aren’t even big fish - you’re comparing the most high profile person in the world during a period of unprecedented US instability to dudes that have 19 followers.

Is Twitter even in Iran ffs?
There are hundreds of people whose tweeting incited BLM riots which lead to 30 deaths and laying siege to federal buildings.
Whatabout some guy over here? Whatabout that one?

All we are asking for is the ability to discriminate against anyone we want, the ability to lie without recourse, the ability to corrupt....... and we demand that we get treated better than anyone else, because we are f*cking snowflake pieces of shit.”

If there is someone you want banned from Twitter for inciting violence, report them. Have you done this? How do you know they’ve got away with high crimes? Whatabout,,,, suck my dick.

Why are you such a weak bitch? What is about you people that makes you feel like victims AND demand the right to be bullies? Did you mum not let you have a boob as a baby?

Weak cnuts.
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AND-y
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by AND-y »

:lol: What kind of a loser jumps in with those stats to hand.
towny
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by towny »

If you think Twitter is being mean - don’t use Twitter. Just be men ffs. When did white men turn into such weak, whiny plums? You’re an embarrassment to every animal in nature with a dick.

This is why Trump was popular. He tapped in to your feelings of entitlement and knew you felt like victims. He’s a piece of shit who was made president by other pieces of shit.
bimboman
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by bimboman »

towny wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:57 pm If you think Twitter is being mean - don’t use Twitter. Just be men ffs. When did white men turn into such weak, whiny plums? You’re an embarrassment to every animal in nature with a dick.

This is why Trump was popular. He tapped in to your feelings of entitlement and knew you felt like victims. He’s a piece of shit who was made president by other pieces of shit.

That time with the baby has really calmed you down. :thumbup:
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fatcat
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by fatcat »

Bloody hell Towny, if you're going to pull people up for whining how about you don't paint yourself as whiner-in-chief while doing so. :?
C69
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by C69 »

So do with think Don will leave the Republican Party quietly or will there be a schism?
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Salient
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Salient »

Sonny Blount wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:30 am
Jerome Manning wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:26 am History is going to be mental in terms of how harshly it judges the last four years.

In 30 years time, no one will admit to having supported Trump - it will be like 70 million people just vanished. Lots of people changing their tune in hindsight. Our grand kids are going to be confused as to how he got 47% of the vote.
Voting for Trump and supporting Trump are entirely different things.

The story of why 70 million voted for Trump is as much to do with aspects of the left in America over the past few years. They were rioting in the street for most of the year.
Once again 70 million didn't vote for Trump, a vast majority voted for the Republican candidate and will do so at the next election. As they say, you could put a monkey up and <insert political party name> voters will still vote for that monkey. Without Republican backing, which is disappearing at a rapid rate - see link below, Trump is going into that dark night.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/ ... -are-fatal
Masterji
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Masterji »

Even before Trump the GOP had moved towards right wing politics, Trump has taken them further to the right and there is no turning back.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Ali's Choice »

Masterji wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:12 am Even before Trump the GOP had moved towards right wing politics, Trump has taken them further to the right and there is no turning back.
Sure they can turn back. The problem is that there is a leadership vacuum at the Federal level of the GOP, so any shift will need to happen incrementally. The other problem is that a big chunk of GOP voters have become radicalised. They no longer listen to, or respect anyone other than Donald Trump. He could tell them to drink poisoned Kool Aid and they would fight each other to drink first.
towny
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by towny »

fatcat wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:14 pm Bloody hell Towny, if you're going to pull people up for whining how about you don't paint yourself as whiner-in-chief while doing so. :?
Now they’re whinging that someone isn’t happy with all their whinging.
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by towny »

Masterji wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:12 am Even before Trump the GOP had moved towards right wing politics, Trump has taken them further to the right and there is no turning back.
Yep. Decades before Tump.

Maybe the truth is that much of America has been becoming more progressive since the 60’s but the GOP has stayed put. Joseph McCarthy was a right-wing nutjob and he was well supported for a long time. Back then it was Democrats that were the party that wanted to oppress the rights of minorities. But JFK and others brought social reform to the Democrats and the country - opposed by the GOP at every step.

So has the GOP moved towards the right or is it really that they’re still stuck in the 50’s? The big difference for me is that the GOP of the 50’s, for all their faults, wouldn’t undermine their own democracy to such an extent in order to retain power. Nixon used to he the outlier, but now he’s in the middle of the pack.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

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The fact that deep south Georgia just voted for Joe Biden and elected two progressive Democrat Senators suggests that America is not as right wing and radically conservative as some commentators would have us believe. In the last four years the House, Senate and White House have all been flipped by the Dems.
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shanky
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by shanky »

Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:18 am The fact that deep south Georgia just voted for Joe Biden and elected two progressive Democrat Senators suggests that America is not as right wing and radically conservative as some commentators would have us believe. In the last four years the House, Senate and White House have all been flipped by the Dems.
These states are becoming liberalised partly as northern state people move south looking for opportunity. The Atlanta suburbs, for example
Same thing is happening in North Carolina

If you look at the county map for the recent senate election, 90% of the counties are still red.
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Zakar
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Zakar »

shanky wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:44 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:18 am The fact that deep south Georgia just voted for Joe Biden and elected two progressive Democrat Senators suggests that America is not as right wing and radically conservative as some commentators would have us believe. In the last four years the House, Senate and White House have all been flipped by the Dems.
These states are becoming liberalised partly as northern state people move south looking for opportunity. The Atlanta suburbs, for example
Same thing is happening in North Carolina

If you look at the county map for the recent senate election, 90% of the counties are still red.
Sure, but the blue counties match a population heat map.
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Jensrsa
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Jensrsa »

Interesting although overtaken by last week's events

Life after Trump: what’s the future of the Republican Party? | The Economist
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Monkey Magic
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Monkey Magic »

Zakar wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:51 am
shanky wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:44 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:18 am The fact that deep south Georgia just voted for Joe Biden and elected two progressive Democrat Senators suggests that America is not as right wing and radically conservative as some commentators would have us believe. In the last four years the House, Senate and White House have all been flipped by the Dems.
These states are becoming liberalised partly as northern state people move south looking for opportunity. The Atlanta suburbs, for example
Same thing is happening in North Carolina

If you look at the county map for the recent senate election, 90% of the counties are still red.
Sure, but the blue counties match a population heat map.
Goes to the opening question do GOP assume the red stay red but go more centrist so that they can pick up some ground in the urban zones
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shanky
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by shanky »

I think for Presidential and Senate elections, the process favours those urban large populations.
GOP Senators can dump on Trump and still get elected

Not so easy for the House Reps though, locked into their gerrymandered redneck zones. They’ll have to stay true.
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Flockwitt »

Jensrsa wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:52 am Interesting although overtaken by last week's events

Life after Trump: what’s the future of the Republican Party? | The Economist
It goes to show just how stupid Trump has been with all of this. If he'd played his line up to the inauguration, say going down to the protesters and giving them a pep talk about how the election was robbed, and then ripping into Joe from day 1 he'd have remained an enormous force in US politics.
towny
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by towny »

Monkey Magic wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:55 am
Zakar wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:51 am
shanky wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:44 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:18 am The fact that deep south Georgia just voted for Joe Biden and elected two progressive Democrat Senators suggests that America is not as right wing and radically conservative as some commentators would have us believe. In the last four years the House, Senate and White House have all been flipped by the Dems.
These states are becoming liberalised partly as northern state people move south looking for opportunity. The Atlanta suburbs, for example
Same thing is happening in North Carolina

If you look at the county map for the recent senate election, 90% of the counties are still red.
Sure, but the blue counties match a population heat map.
Goes to the opening question do GOP assume the red stay red but go more centrist so that they can pick up some ground in the urban zones
Nope. They aren’t able to have a strategy like that because the US primary system means that candidates must first run the gauntlet of crazies. If you sound anything other than batshit crash, you don’t get past the first step. In 2 years, you can bet your dick that the GOP will have a field of whack jobs. Despite this, they will probably do very well on the mid-terms, and I imagine the next generation fascist will step up to the plate and solidify the base. The ‘moderate’ GOP voters will let themselves be convinced that the latest contrived crisis (i.e. Benghazi) gives them permission to vote for batshit crazy fascists over the Dems. I presume that the GOP will return to their Tea Party strategy and make everything about debt and abortion.
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by towny »

Flockwitt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:03 am
Jensrsa wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:52 am Interesting although overtaken by last week's events

Life after Trump: what’s the future of the Republican Party? | The Economist
It goes to show just how stupid Trump has been with all of this. If he'd played his line up to the inauguration, say going down to the protesters and giving them a pep talk about how the election was robbed, and then ripping into Joe from day 1 he'd have remained an enormous force in US politics.
The day he’s out of the White House he’s farked. All the crimes, all of the investigations on hold.... it’s all waiting for him. Watch how his base turns on him when the truth starts pouring out. He’ll be in prison or dead by Xmas.
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flaggETERNAL
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by flaggETERNAL »

I think posters are writing Trump off at their peril. I'd love to think he's done but I've got a feeling that if he can stay out of prison he'll spend the next 4 years picking Biden and the Dems apart for not solving the problems he himself had a large hand in creating.

I think we're underestimating the fanatical devotion of his supporters. Look at the non-USA ones right here.

Trump is far from done imo.
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by ovalball »

flaggETERNAL wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:41 am I think posters are writing Trump off at their peril. I'd love to think he's done but I've got a feeling that if he can stay out of prison he'll spend the next 4 years picking Biden and the Dems apart for not solving the problems he himself had a large hand in creating.

I think we're underestimating the fanatical devotion of his supporters. Look at the non-USA ones right here.

Trump is far from done imo.
Possibly - but Trump is a damaged brand now. We've yet to see how badly it will affect his business interests - eg. he's just lost the 2022 PGA Championship at one of his courses. And many Republican are seeing their corporate donors withdraw funding. Add in being booted off most social media platforms, and all the lawsuits awaiting him, and he's going to find life far tougher. The chances of other Trumps, having successful political careers, has also diminished substantally.

There'll also be lots of whistleblowers come out of White House woodwork over the next year.
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flaggETERNAL
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by flaggETERNAL »

ovalball wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:13 am
flaggETERNAL wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:41 am I think posters are writing Trump off at their peril. I'd love to think he's done but I've got a feeling that if he can stay out of prison he'll spend the next 4 years picking Biden and the Dems apart for not solving the problems he himself had a large hand in creating.

I think we're underestimating the fanatical devotion of his supporters. Look at the non-USA ones right here.

Trump is far from done imo.
Possibly - but Trump is a damaged brand now. We've yet to see how badly it will affect his business interests - eg. he's just lost the 2022 PGA Championship at one of his courses. And many Republican are seeing their corporate donors withdraw funding. Add in being booted off most social media platforms, and all the lawsuits awaiting him, and he's going to find life far tougher. The chances of other Trumps, having successful political careers, has also diminished substantally.

There'll also be lots of whistleblowers come out of White House woodwork over the next year.
I truly hope that's what happens. Not holding my breath though.
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Sonny Blount »

The House became more Republican in the 2020 election.

It was a really good election for the GOP as at Nov 3. Remove Trump, hold their position in the House and Senate.

Trump and Co then done f**ked that up really badly with their stolen election nonsense and lost the Georgia seats.
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by ovalball »

flaggETERNAL wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:26 am
ovalball wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:13 am
flaggETERNAL wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:41 am I think posters are writing Trump off at their peril. I'd love to think he's done but I've got a feeling that if he can stay out of prison he'll spend the next 4 years picking Biden and the Dems apart for not solving the problems he himself had a large hand in creating.

I think we're underestimating the fanatical devotion of his supporters. Look at the non-USA ones right here.

Trump is far from done imo.
Possibly - but Trump is a damaged brand now. We've yet to see how badly it will affect his business interests - eg. he's just lost the 2022 PGA Championship at one of his courses. And many Republican are seeing their corporate donors withdraw funding. Add in being booted off most social media platforms, and all the lawsuits awaiting him, and he's going to find life far tougher. The chances of other Trumps, having successful political careers, has also diminished substantally.

There'll also be lots of whistleblowers come out of White House woodwork over the next year.
I truly hope that's what happens. Not holding my breath though.
I do know what you mean - but, at the very least, he's got more of an uphill battle now.
Flyin Ryan
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Flyin Ryan »

Opposition for 2 years. Then come the 2022 midterms. They'll probably take control of the House and Senate then because Trump's gone, still doesn't mean things are going to get better anytime soon, and once midterms are over it's the runup to 2024 with debates probably starting summer 2023.

Before I get into 2024, let me state the party is fine, in large part because there's no such thing as a party for either the Democrats or the Republicans. "The party" is a loose organization with no centralized control and open primaries which I absolutely hate have made them such. Extremes in both parties whether they destroy downtown during a Black Lives Matter protest or raid the Capitol in fact typically hate the party because the party as being in politics is required to compromise, and these people don't believe in ever compromising.

The parties that do exist are at a state level. Federally, not really. The state I live in for example Democrats are an irrelevant disaster zone and Republicans have supermajority control of the legislature that's not changing anytime soon. Democrats last won a statewide election in 2012, and this past November for governor they finished behind the Libertarian candidate in more than a third of the state's counties. (FYI for anyone who cares, I'm chair of my county's Organizing Convention to organize the Libertarian Party in our county formally later this month. My first goal is to point out how feckless and pointless local Democrats are seeing as they can't do anything and replace them for 2nd-party status.)

Now looking presidentially, pretty uniformly the aspirational GOP politicians have deplored the events of this past week. Ted Cruz's career beyond being a Senator is over. Josh Hawley's career probably. Even Tom Cotton - a young 40-something archconservative Senator from Arkansas that has designs on being more - deplored the events. Someone's going to represent the Trump wing. If it's splintered which I think it will be because Trump people aren't incredibly organized, they doom themselves to losing the primary to someone more establishment (pretty much a complete reverse of the 2016 primary and how Trump won, the Republican old guard are not making that mistake again and will emulate how Democrats last March sidelined Sanders by consolidating around Biden post-South Carolina). I think prior to this past week, I would've said someone more Trump than old establishment would win which is great for Democrats' electoral prospects. Now I think the calculus has changed and the party will back someone more G.W. Bush/McCain/Romney as far as views.

Pre-election I thought the Republican likely contenders that could rise above the clusterfuck that is modern American presidential primaries for the Democratic and Republican parties were Pence, Nikki Haley, and that's it. If Trump comes out anti-Pence as I expect I think it dooms him. Pence's only natural constituency is social conservatives and I don't know how much inroads he's made into party leadership because everything party got hijacked by Trump. Donald Trump Jr. might run which dear God I hope not, but that's a possibility. He'll have his father's backing and what popular support that is, doesn't necessarily mean he'll have his father's charisma and can engage a crowd. I think that now that politicans have publicly distanced themselves from Trump, you can see a more diverse list of candidates with diversity meaning points of view. Cotton to represent the neoconservative wing. Ben Sasse to represent the libertarian constitutionalist wing. I'm sure a governor or two will emerge.

If you told me to say the final two left in the primary right now, I think I'd say NIkki Haley and Tom Cotton. It'd be incredibly difficult for whoever the Democratic nominee is to run against Haley because the present Democratic Party is entirely about identity politics, or each minority group grabbing as much power as it can for its members (see San Francisco Mayor London Breed's reaction to Alex Padilla being appointed California Senator), and Haley negates a lot of their talking points.
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Jensrsa
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Jensrsa »

Interesting stat: around 40% of American voters regard themselves as Independent. This is in Gallup Stats going back to 2004

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/part ... ation.aspx

This doesn't mean they will vote for Independent candidates but that they will vote for the candidate, regardless of party, that addresses their concerns
Flyin Ryan
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Flyin Ryan »

Jensrsa wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:39 pm Interesting stat: around 40% of American voters regard themselves as Independent. This is in Gallup Stats going back to 2004

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/part ... ation.aspx

This doesn't mean they will vote for Independent candidates but that they will vote for the candidate, regardless of party, that addresses their concerns
There's a ton of closet partisan independents. There's no reason to be a member of a party because it doesn't mean anything if you can still go vote in their primary. It's not like people pay dues or ever take part in a local party meeting. It also allows people to say they're conservative but hate the Republican Party, progressive/liberal but hate the Democratic Party. There's sizable numbers of both of those groups.

Someday that independent streak will lead to a Ross Perot (or Macron to internationalize this a bit) type winning the presidency against both a Democrat and Republican, but still waiting.
towny
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by towny »

flaggETERNAL wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:41 am I think posters are writing Trump off at their peril. I'd love to think he's done but I've got a feeling that if he can stay out of prison he'll spend the next 4 years picking Biden and the Dems apart for not solving the problems he himself had a large hand in creating.

I think we're underestimating the fanatical devotion of his supporters. Look at the non-USA ones right here.

Trump is far from done imo.
What will he use to get his message out? A sandwich board on the footpath?

Without his social media bullhorn he’ll be stuck working with traditional media. He’s burned his bridges at Fox and those other networks don’t have the reach he needs. Plus, now he has a record to defend.

Plus he’ll be in court most of the time.
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by towny »

Flyin Ryan wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:20 pm Opposition for 2 years. Then come the 2022 midterms. They'll probably take control of the House and Senate then because Trump's gone, still doesn't mean things are going to get better anytime soon, and once midterms are over it's the runup to 2024 with debates probably starting summer 2023.

Before I get into 2024, let me state the party is fine, in large part because there's no such thing as a party for either the Democrats or the Republicans. "The party" is a loose organization with no centralized control and open primaries which I absolutely hate have made them such. Extremes in both parties whether they destroy downtown during a Black Lives Matter protest or raid the Capitol in fact typically hate the party because the party as being in politics is required to compromise, and these people don't believe in ever compromising.

The parties that do exist are at a state level. Federally, not really. The state I live in for example Democrats are an irrelevant disaster zone and Republicans have supermajority control of the legislature that's not changing anytime soon. Democrats last won a statewide election in 2012, and this past November for governor they finished behind the Libertarian candidate in more than a third of the state's counties. (FYI for anyone who cares, I'm chair of my county's Organizing Convention to organize the Libertarian Party in our county formally later this month. My first goal is to point out how feckless and pointless local Democrats are seeing as they can't do anything and replace them for 2nd-party status.)

Now looking presidentially, pretty uniformly the aspirational GOP politicians have deplored the events of this past week. Ted Cruz's career beyond being a Senator is over. Josh Hawley's career probably. Even Tom Cotton - a young 40-something archconservative Senator from Arkansas that has designs on being more - deplored the events. Someone's going to represent the Trump wing. If it's splintered which I think it will be because Trump people aren't incredibly organized, they doom themselves to losing the primary to someone more establishment (pretty much a complete reverse of the 2016 primary and how Trump won, the Republican old guard are not making that mistake again and will emulate how Democrats last March sidelined Sanders by consolidating around Biden post-South Carolina). I think prior to this past week, I would've said someone more Trump than old establishment would win which is great for Democrats' electoral prospects. Now I think the calculus has changed and the party will back someone more G.W. Bush/McCain/Romney as far as views.

Pre-election I thought the Republican likely contenders that could rise above the clusterfuck that is modern American presidential primaries for the Democratic and Republican parties were Pence, Nikki Haley, and that's it. If Trump comes out anti-Pence as I expect I think it dooms him. Pence's only natural constituency is social conservatives and I don't know how much inroads he's made into party leadership because everything party got hijacked by Trump. Donald Trump Jr. might run which dear God I hope not, but that's a possibility. He'll have his father's backing and what popular support that is, doesn't necessarily mean he'll have his father's charisma and can engage a crowd. I think that now that politicans have publicly distanced themselves from Trump, you can see a more diverse list of candidates with diversity meaning points of view. Cotton to represent the neoconservative wing. Ben Sasse to represent the libertarian constitutionalist wing. I'm sure a governor or two will emerge.

If you told me to say the final two left in the primary right now, I think I'd say NIkki Haley and Tom Cotton. It'd be incredibly difficult for whoever the Democratic nominee is to run against Haley because the present Democratic Party is entirely about identity politics, or each minority group grabbing as much power as it can for its members (see San Francisco Mayor London Breed's reaction to Alex Padilla being appointed California Senator), and Haley negates a lot of their talking points.
Very good post.
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Re: What is next for the GOP?

Post by Salient »

Jensrsa wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:39 pm Interesting stat: around 40% of American voters regard themselves as Independent. This is in Gallup Stats going back to 2004

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/part ... ation.aspx

This doesn't mean they will vote for Independent candidates but that they will vote for the candidate, regardless of party, that addresses their concerns
40% spins a bit high, wonder what the margin for error in the poll was.
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