New Zealand...fvcked

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Ali's Choice
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New Zealand...fvcked

Post by Ali's Choice »

One new 'probable' case of community transmission today.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19- ... W5NQVSW3A/
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Gavin Duffy
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Post by Gavin Duffy »

So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
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Ali's Choice
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Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Hotel quarantine is what we do here in Australia as well. Seems to be working okay but I'm sure our state governments would be happy to learn from Ireland if you have a more successful model you could share with us :thumbup:
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Post by Gavin Duffy »

Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:39 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Hotel quarantine is what we do here in Australia as well. Seems to be working okay but I'm sure our state government's would be happy to learn from Ireland if you have a more successful model you could share with us :thumbup:
No, unfortunately we're not in the southern hemisphere, we weren't hit with a fortuitously low transmissability strain of the virus, our main population centres aren't separated from each other by vast distances of desert/ocean etc, we have foreign politically complex land borders etc etc. But yeah you're doing great :thumbup: For now.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: New Zealand...fvcked

Post by Ali's Choice »

Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:44 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:39 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Hotel quarantine is what we do here in Australia as well. Seems to be working okay but I'm sure our state government's would be happy to learn from Ireland if you have a more successful model you could share with us :thumbup:
No, unfortunately we're not in the southern hemisphere, we weren't hit with a fortuitously low transmissability strain of the virus, our main population centres aren't separated from each other by vast distances of desert/ocean etc, we have foreign politically complex land borders etc etc. But yeah you're doing great :thumbup: For now.
Heard it all before mate. We get it, we're lucky. It's all about luck and being isolated. Not sure why you needed to tell us this again, but thanks all the same for making an effort.
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Re: New Zealand...fvcked

Post by Ghost-Of-Nepia »

Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:32 am One new 'probable' case of community transmission today.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19- ... W5NQVSW3A/
To clarify, it's a case in the community, not community transmission.
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Fingers crossed it’s not one of the more transmissible variants. If it is, the action they take will be interesting. My trip to the Bay of Islands on Friday could be in jeopardy :x.
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JB1981 wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:12 am Fingers crossed it’s not one of the more transmissible variants. If it is, the action they take will be interesting. My trip to the Bay of Islands on Friday could be in jeopardy :x.
Fingers crossed for you guys. Here in QLD we had a woman who had the UK variant out and about in the community for two days before she was picked up. Palaszczuk closed down Brisbane for three days and fortunately the only person who she infected was her husband.
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Post by JB1981 »

I would prefer they take the Queensland approach if it is the UK strain. Even if it’s not, this person left MIQ around five days ago so that’s already a large potential exposure window.
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JB1981 wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:19 am I would prefer they take the Queensland approach if it is the UK strain. Even if it’s not, this person left MIQ around five days ago so that’s already a large potential exposure window.
Yeah, it's a worry. Fingers crossed.
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Post by UncleFB »

Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:44 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:39 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Hotel quarantine is what we do here in Australia as well. Seems to be working okay but I'm sure our state government's would be happy to learn from Ireland if you have a more successful model you could share with us :thumbup:
No, unfortunately we're not in the southern hemisphere, we weren't hit with a fortuitously low transmissability strain of the virus, our main population centres aren't separated from each other by vast distances of desert/ocean etc, we have foreign politically complex land borders etc etc. But yeah you're doing great :thumbup: For now.
F-off mate, we’ve kept the high transmissionable strain out through political will and quarantine - so far (but there’s still a chance it will get out).

Also, piss off with the distance B/S as well, in the modern world distance is negligible. Oz and NZ are on Asia’s bloody doorstep and in NZ half the population lives in the top half of the NI.

Ireland especially could have closed off its borders if it had the political will and courage to do so. The states in Oz have nearly all shut down borders to other states at various times which has caused political shitfights.

You really shouldn’t coming swanning into a thread hassling how a country that has low rates of COVID is managing its quarantine and not expect some kickback.
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Post by deadduck »

Michael Baker was only in the news this weekend accusing the government of becoming a bit complacent on the back of their success.

Even in that article it says it's likely the person became infected after their day 12 test. That shouldn't be able to happen.
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Post by Farva »

UncleFB wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:51 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:44 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:39 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Hotel quarantine is what we do here in Australia as well. Seems to be working okay but I'm sure our state government's would be happy to learn from Ireland if you have a more successful model you could share with us :thumbup:
No, unfortunately we're not in the southern hemisphere, we weren't hit with a fortuitously low transmissability strain of the virus, our main population centres aren't separated from each other by vast distances of desert/ocean etc, we have foreign politically complex land borders etc etc. But yeah you're doing great :thumbup: For now.
F-off mate, we’ve kept the high transmissionable strain out through political will and quarantine - so far (but there’s still a chance it will get out).

Also, piss off with the distance B/S as well, in the modern world distance is negligible. Oz and NZ are on Asia’s bloody doorstep and in NZ half the population lives in the top half of the NI.

Ireland especially could have closed off its borders if it had the political will and courage to do so. The states in Oz have nearly all shut down borders to other states at various times which has caused political shitfights.

You really shouldn’t coming swanning into a thread hassling how a country that has low rates of COVID is managing its quarantine and not expect some kickback.
It’s a weird position to take. Australia and Ireland get roughly similar numbers of international arrivals (around 10m a year) so we had equal chances for Covid to get into the country. I appreciate that Ireland is quite small so travel between cities by road is the preferred method but to suggest Australian cities are not interconnected is wrong. Melbourne to Sydney is the second busiest flight route in the world (just behind Seoul to Jeju, no a European city makes the top 10). These Australian cities are also shipping hubs and the road freight and train traffic between them is high. And to suggest Australia is not densely populated indicates a lack of understanding of the country. The population is centred on a small strip along the east coast and the south west corner. Most of the country is empty. We are an urbanised population, more than Ireland (71% living in cities compared to 64%).
And Ireland had a full month without Covid to prepare compared to Australia, not recording a case until late Feb.

Australia’s results are driven but a much harsher response. Ireland went for a very different response compared to Australia and are getting different results. But our results have nothing to do with population density or connectivity.
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Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:44 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:39 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Hotel quarantine is what we do here in Australia as well. Seems to be working okay but I'm sure our state government's would be happy to learn from Ireland if you have a more successful model you could share with us :thumbup:
No, unfortunately we're not in the southern hemisphere, we weren't hit with a fortuitously low transmissability strain of the virus, our main population centres aren't separated from each other by vast distances of desert/ocean etc, we have foreign politically complex land borders etc etc. But yeah you're doing great :thumbup: For now.
Its like youre wishing a plague here.
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Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:44 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:39 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Hotel quarantine is what we do here in Australia as well. Seems to be working okay but I'm sure our state government's would be happy to learn from Ireland if you have a more successful model you could share with us :thumbup:
No, unfortunately we're not in the southern hemisphere, we weren't hit with a fortuitously low transmissability strain of the virus, our main population centres aren't separated from each other by vast distances of desert/ocean etc, we have foreign politically complex land borders etc etc. But yeah you're doing great :thumbup: For now.
Bullshit sunshine. The difference has been all in the handling. And considering 6 of my mother's family have had to deal with Covid infections over the past fortnight (and other posters have said they've lost control of the spread on this very forum) Ireland's handling of the situation appears to have been nothing short of a shitshow.
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deadduck wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:13 am Michael Baker was only in the news this weekend accusing the government of becoming a bit complacent on the back of their success.

Even in that article it says it's likely the person became infected after their day 12 test. That shouldn't be able to happen.
The possibility of a new arrival infecting someone near the end of their managed isolation has been discussed for ages. I thought they had introduced some kind of streaming, but perhaps that's wishful thinking. Although even with that there would be a lot of shared spaces. Exercise areas for example.
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Post by JB1981 »

Fat Old Git wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:20 am
deadduck wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:13 am Michael Baker was only in the news this weekend accusing the government of becoming a bit complacent on the back of their success.

Even in that article it says it's likely the person became infected after their day 12 test. That shouldn't be able to happen.
The possibility of a new arrival infecting someone near the end of their managed isolation has been discussed for ages. I thought they had introduced some kind of streaming, but perhaps that's wishful thinking. Although even with that there would be a lot of shared spaces. Exercise areas for example.
There has been comment recently about whether purpose built facilities are needed and noting that hotel ventilation could be a risk with the more transmissible variants. Hopefully they can identify the source and take whatever action is necessary.
Last edited by JB1981 on Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Flockwitt »

At the end of the day NZ has been on borrowed time... we're just one breath away from this getting out into the community again and without completely locking the borders there's simply no way to be 100% risk free.

Thankfully this woman's done the right thing and when my partner returns from overseas I'll be making sure all our family maintains the covid app usage and sensible precautions after the stay.

It sounds all well managed with follow up calls and whatnot. Just something there will be someway the bloody virus finds a host.
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Post by deadduck »

What's also alarming for me is that they're announcing this publicly on the 24th. They're contract tracing events that occurred on the 15th.

That means the person must have caught the virus since at least the 13th and have probably been infectious since the 18th.
I do hope users of the app were notified earlier than today. It's no good telling people who've been infected since the 18th to self isolate on the 24th, they've probably been infectious for 2 or 3 days now.
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deadduck wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:23 am What's also alarming for me is that they're announcing this publicly on the 24th. They're contract tracing events that occurred on the 15th.

That means the person must have caught the virus since at least the 13th and have probably been infectious since the 18th.
I do hope users of the app were notified earlier than today. It's no good telling people who've been infected since the 18th to self isolate on the 24th, they've probably been infectious for 2 or 3 days now.
It's not idea, but it's still better than not telling them to isolate at all.
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Re: New Zealand...fvcked

Post by Ali's Choice »

Flockwitt wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:19 am At the end of the day NZ has been on borrowed time... we're just one breath away from this getting out into the community again and without completely locking the borders there's simply no way to be 100% risk free.
As we've seen in NSW, Victoria and QLD over the past few weeks, the virus can escape into the community and still be controlled, as long as health systems react early with excellent contact tracing and sensible, cautious lockdowns and restrictions.
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Post by Flockwitt »

Another option to consider as vaccine roll out nears and countries are getting their own done is a partial lock-out. Refusing anybody who isn't a NZ citizen or permanent citizen barring compassionate cases, like they've recently required in Taiwan. A few months hardship for some for a safer community and economy for the nation.

They can roll this back with proof of vaccination for arrivals, and as the NZ population gets jabbed.

If these new variants do pose more of a risk that we struggle to contain at the border it might be a necessary step.
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Post by flaggETERNAL »

Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Someone just asked on Twitter why people from Samoa were being quarantined with those coming in from the UK. Fair question imo.
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Post by Farva »

Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:37 am
Flockwitt wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:19 am At the end of the day NZ has been on borrowed time... we're just one breath away from this getting out into the community again and without completely locking the borders there's simply no way to be 100% risk free.
As we've seen in NSW, Victoria and QLD over the past few weeks, the virus can escape into the community and still be controlled, as long as health systems react early with excellent contact tracing and sensible, cautious lockdowns and restrictions.
That’s it. Contract tracing coupled with strategic lockdowns, like NZ did when they had the last outbreak, NZ should be fine. It’s something we need to live with until the vaccine is rolled out. That’s a year away still.
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Post by Flockwitt »

flaggETERNAL wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:09 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Someone just asked on Twitter why people from Samoa were being quarantined with those coming in from the UK. Fair question imo.
A problem is that managed isolation is booked up with exact and legal requirements for each coordinated flight and space allocation. It's difficult to rearrange, especially over this peak beginning of year period where even emergency cases have been struggling to get approval and location. They'd need a specific plan and at least some time to work it through, there's a roll over of about up to 3 weeks/a month I'd guess to implement this best case. Rooms are booked solid and if you're separating by arrival for sure the total number of available rooms are going to be reduced. The government can't chop and change people's already booked flights and arrangements unless there's an outright emergency.
Last edited by Flockwitt on Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Zealand...fvcked

Post by Flockwitt »

.
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Post by flaggETERNAL »

Flockwitt wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:19 am
flaggETERNAL wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:09 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Someone just asked on Twitter why people from Samoa were being quarantined with those coming in from the UK. Fair question imo.
A problem is that managed isolation is booked up with exact and legal requirements for each coordinated flight and space allocation. It's difficult to rearrange, especially over this peak beginning of year period where even emergency cases have been struggling to get approval and location. They'd need a specific plan and at least some time to work it through, there's a roll over of about up to 3 weeks/a month I'd guess to implement this best case. Rooms are booked solid and if you're separating by arrival for sure the total number of available rooms are going to be reduced. The government can't chop and change people's already booked flights and arrangements unless there's an outright emergency.
Ah thanks for that explanation flockwitt. We've gone over 300 days without a community case in Fiji. Feel like our time has to run out soon.
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Re: New Zealand...fvcked

Post by JB1981 »

The person has the South African variant and appears to have picked it up in MIQ.
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Post by Tehui »

I'm usually a socially liberal guy. But for the last 6 months I'm starting to believe that we should just pull up the drawbridge and lock the door.
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Post by Jeff the Bear »

Pretty annoying is this. Back working from home. I've been a naughty boy, and have all but given up on the Covid app. As such, when I read the places she had been, and saw that I had visited a few of them as well...it was a fairly tense rummage around the online bank statement to confirm where I was (as it is, I missed her by a day down at Okara park).
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Post by Jerome Manning »

Tehui wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:49 am I'm usually a socially liberal guy. But for the last 6 months I'm starting to believe that we should just pull up the drawbridge and lock the door.
And when do you let it back down?
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Jeff the Bear wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:48 am Pretty annoying is this. Back working from home. I've been a naughty boy, and have all but given up on the Covid app. As such, when I read the places she had been, and saw that I had visited a few of them as well...it was a fairly tense rummage around the online bank statement to confirm where I was (as it is, I missed her by a day down at Okara park).
I'm sure you're not the only person in that boat Jeff. The perhaps good news out of today being the woman in question wasn't showing respiratory symptoms i.e. she wasn't coughing and sneezing all over the show and partner has tested negative. Hopefully at least not some super spreader.
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Post by Tehui »

Jerome Manning wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:48 am
Tehui wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:49 am I'm usually a socially liberal guy. But for the last 6 months I'm starting to believe that we should just pull up the drawbridge and lock the door.
And when do you let it back down?
When it's safe to venture yonder again.
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From what I have read, they seem to not have figured out people who arrived 2 days ago, shouldn't be in contact with people just about to leave after 2 weeks.

Some people would find this not rocket science, but apparently it is.
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Post by guy smiley »

Dark wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:42 am From what I have read, they seem to not have figured out people who arrived 2 days ago, shouldn't be in contact with people just about to leave after 2 weeks.

Some people would find this not rocket science, but apparently it is.
You’re full of shit as usual. A mate of mine is in quarantine right now. When he has his time out of the room for exercise it’s strictly limited to the same group he arrived with, from the same flight in.

There’s no mixing of different arrivals.
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Re: New Zealand...fvcked

Post by Fat Old Git »

I wonder what systems they have in place to manage the shared spaces and if they do a clean down or similar between streams. During the last outbreak one case was a contractor who is thought to have gotten it from a lift that had been used by a positive case 20 minutes or so earlier.

In this case they're apparently investigating the air con system as the person's room was quite close to the one they've traced it back to. They're also looking at cc tv footage for possible overlaps.
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Post by Blackrock Bullet »

Farva wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:38 am
UncleFB wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:51 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:44 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:39 am
Gavin Duffy wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:37 am So, are NZ isolating all arrivals in the same place? Bit sketchy if so.
Hotel quarantine is what we do here in Australia as well. Seems to be working okay but I'm sure our state government's would be happy to learn from Ireland if you have a more successful model you could share with us :thumbup:
No, unfortunately we're not in the southern hemisphere, we weren't hit with a fortuitously low transmissability strain of the virus, our main population centres aren't separated from each other by vast distances of desert/ocean etc, we have foreign politically complex land borders etc etc. But yeah you're doing great :thumbup: For now.
F-off mate, we’ve kept the high transmissionable strain out through political will and quarantine - so far (but there’s still a chance it will get out).

Also, piss off with the distance B/S as well, in the modern world distance is negligible. Oz and NZ are on Asia’s bloody doorstep and in NZ half the population lives in the top half of the NI.

Ireland especially could have closed off its borders if it had the political will and courage to do so. The states in Oz have nearly all shut down borders to other states at various times which has caused political shitfights.

You really shouldn’t coming swanning into a thread hassling how a country that has low rates of COVID is managing its quarantine and not expect some kickback.
It’s a weird position to take. Australia and Ireland get roughly similar numbers of international arrivals (around 10m a year) so we had equal chances for Covid to get into the country. I appreciate that Ireland is quite small so travel between cities by road is the preferred method but to suggest Australian cities are not interconnected is wrong. Melbourne to Sydney is the second busiest flight route in the world (just behind Seoul to Jeju, no a European city makes the top 10). These Australian cities are also shipping hubs and the road freight and train traffic between them is high. And to suggest Australia is not densely populated indicates a lack of understanding of the country. The population is centred on a small strip along the east coast and the south west corner. Most of the country is empty. We are an urbanised population, more than Ireland (71% living in cities compared to 64%).
And Ireland had a full month without Covid to prepare compared to Australia, not recording a case until late Feb.

Australia’s results are driven but a much harsher response. Ireland went for a very different response compared to Australia and are getting different results. But our results have nothing to do with population density or connectivity.
Sorry chaps, but you're wrong.

The first highly transmittable mutation of the virus was seen from February onwards, this is the virus that ripped through Europe and North America, quietly at first.

NZ and Australia did not see a significant amount of this strain of the virus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/worl ... ation.html

When they started to from March onwards, the world was more on watch for Covid, with people isolating etc. The difference in early measures between ANZ and the NH was not significant enough to cause an issue. The virus was imported in both parts of the world. The difference was the seasons in each place and the mutant strain of the virus.

A further difference between Ireland and Australia is that outside of the relatively small amount of local traffic between nations in that part of the world, your visitors are longer term. We were right in the middle of the melting pot of that mutation of the virus. Ireland is also roughly 4 times smaller than Australia but in a far smaller landmass. Have a think of the impact of the exact same numbers of visitors whilst also having a land border.

Yes fair play, you have doubled down on your strategy and there are things I would love to see employed from you lot. Things like "if you were in X café between these times, get a test". We had low numbers of cases during the summer too, but didn't have anything like that. But as for your overall strategy, early luck allowed you to employ it and whilst you do a great job of implementing it, your geography plays a huge role in that.
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Fat Old Git wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:56 am I wonder what systems they have in place to manage the shared spaces and if they do a clean down or similar between streams. During the last outbreak one case was a contractor who is thought to have gotten it from a lift that had been used by a positive case 20 minutes or so earlier.

In this case they're apparently investigating the air con system as the person's room was quite close to the one they've traced it back to. They're also looking at cc tv footage for possible overlaps.
I'm having a hard time coming to grips with there being common areas in NZ's hotel quarantine.
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Post by bimboman »

Tehui wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:37 am
Jerome Manning wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:48 am
Tehui wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:49 am I'm usually a socially liberal guy. But for the last 6 months I'm starting to believe that we should just pull up the drawbridge and lock the door.
And when do you let it back down?
When it's safe to venture yonder again.


Anyone trading freedom for safety deserves neither,
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Blackrock Bullet
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Re: New Zealand...fvcked

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

bimboman wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:11 am
Tehui wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:37 am
Jerome Manning wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:48 am
Tehui wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:49 am I'm usually a socially liberal guy. But for the last 6 months I'm starting to believe that we should just pull up the drawbridge and lock the door.
And when do you let it back down?
When it's safe to venture yonder again.


Anyone trading freedom for safety deserves neither,
It's the North Korea in the 1980s and 1990s option that is favoured now it seems.

As the virus gets over the various walls put up to keep it out, higher walls are called for. Until we just ban travel and trade completely & live in glorious isolation.
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