Reddit v Hedgefunds

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Sundy
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Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Sundy »

Strange goings on it Wall Street this week as retail investors are going head to head with funds, driving up stock prices to disrupt shorts

One hedge fund on the verge of bankruptcy having already got a $2.5b bailout this week.

Fight back is on now as broker websites around the work crash and stop selling calls in conjunction with Wall Street media releasing false reports

Stock in focus is $GME
de_Selby
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by de_Selby »

Yeah they forced a short squeeze, I doubt it was all down to retail investors, I bet some professional traders are also in on the game.
I'm pissed I didn't get in on it. Some people have cleaned up.
I can see a lot of people holding on too long and losing a lot of money though. I can't see gamestop actually being a good long term investment.
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danthefan
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by danthefan »

Can anyone do an ELI5 version of wtf happened here?
de_Selby
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by de_Selby »

People noticed that hedge funds had taken short positions on gamestop stock to such an extent they were shorting more stock than was actually in issue.

Basically shorting means they agreed to sell stock at a certain price at a point in the future where they didn't actually own the stock at the time they entered into the contract. It's a bet that the price will plummet, so if it pays off they can buy at market rate and sell at whatever rate was agreed on the contract.

The retail guys bought up loads of the stock which reduced liquidity and drove up the price, now the shorts the hedge funds have are expiring and need to cover it so need to but up huge amounts of the stock, because there isn't much available the price is shooting up.
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feckwanker
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by feckwanker »

AMC the next big one apparently.
Sundy
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Sundy »

Stolen from another site:
In nutshell:

Hedge fund uses data to determine that Gamestop is f**ked because it's earnings are down due to pandemic. The volume of shorts on that stack is noticed in the marketplace
"Commenters" start to write articles in newspapers, twitter posts etc that ride the coat tails of these decisions. This drops the confidence in the stock and a bunch more people pile on

What's different about this particular situation is that the sheer volume of retail investors which have been created due to RobinHood means that in certain situations you create a short squeeze.

To summarize it a bit more.

Hedge fund borrows a bunch of stock from the broker. They pay a fee to borrow the stock
They sell the stock on the open market for $10. They expect the price to drop for $8.
They wait. They have to give the stock back to the broker on Friday.
On Thursday, the stock price drops to $2 (due to an external event - perhaps the company had bad earnings and investors panic)
They buy the stock back at $2, pocket the $8 and give the stock back to the broker.

Now, what's happening here is that some folks from Reddit realized this was happening (there's an actual post from someone who was aware of this back in October, he's made $22m from a $50k long investment fwiw) and they also realized that the collective power of the retail investor market completely overpowered the available shares on the market. So they bought.

Now, the people who have shorted the stock (and there's a lot of companies who shorted GME) have to buy the stock. They don't have a choice, their positions are going to close shortly and the stampede begins. What's unique about this is that the reddit investors are basically doing this, together
backrow
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by backrow »

Financing has also been casually overlooked , as has which products actually have an expiry and which ones are just a spread bet.

Citadel are rumoured to be involved.

Hard to feel sorry for those who abuse these financial weapons of mass destruction , a situation where the position exceeds the shares in issue just cannot he right. Derivs are fab if used for their initial purpose , to hedge & mitigate risk. However, something like 95% of what is issued now are speculative (the exact opposite)
bimboman
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by bimboman »

Fairly soon the stock will settle at somewhere much closer to its true value.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by bimboman »

See Volkswagen/ Porsche for more detail of how this ends.
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danthefan
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by danthefan »

So the hedge funds expected to be buying at $1 and selling at $2, but instead are going to be buying at $5 and selling at 2 (numbers for illustrative purposes only)? Because a load of people on reddit bought up stock driving the price up :lol:
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by de_Selby »

Yup, and the fact they need to buy to cover their positions is also driving the price up.

In fact that's the main thing driving it up because they have much bigger positions.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by bimboman »

danthefan wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:15 pm So the hedge funds expected to be buying at $1 and selling at $2, but instead are going to be buying at $5 and selling at 2 (numbers for illustrative purposes only)? Because a load of people on reddit bought up stock driving the price up :lol:


Kinda, but much much worse. They sold at $4-$10 and would be buying back between $70-$150

The losses on a short squeeze become catastrophic.

The other side of most of this though would have been other hedge funds and professionals rather than reddit dudes at home. (These traders will also have huge risk on the subsequent price fall).
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by de_Selby »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:20 pmThe other side of most of this though would have been other hedge funds and professionals rather than reddit dudes at home. (These traders will also have huge risk on the subsequent price fall).
definitely, other professionals are the main drivers. just some retail guys are along for the ride.
backrow
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by backrow »

de_Selby wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:19 pm Yup, and the fact they need to buy to cover their positions is also driving the price up.

In fact that's the main thing driving it up because they have much bigger positions.
You mean the brokers buying the underlying position ? Doesn’t make sense if a hedge fund takes a short but then buys to cover its position.
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goose81
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by goose81 »

They have done it again today with AMC, a cinema chain up 200%.

I don't see a reason retail investors cant keep doing this tbh , once you look at any stock that's being shorted, if you buy it and it sparks discussion around the world and then everyone buys it and then the professionals start buying it , the only way for it to go is up as these hedge funds have to buy it back to cover their position.

I see this happening again and again if this becomes a thing, I think the stock exchanges will have to intervene

Edit* the price is clearly being driven up by large quantities being bought which will be by professionals but they seem to be being influenced by retails investors sparking mass movements, albeit with much less capital involved.
bimboman
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by bimboman »

backrow wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:31 pm
de_Selby wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:19 pm Yup, and the fact they need to buy to cover their positions is also driving the price up.

In fact that's the main thing driving it up because they have much bigger positions.
You mean the brokers buying the underlying position ? Doesn’t make sense if a hedge fund takes a short but then buys to cover its position.


It does if they can’t afford the margin.
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ScarfaceClaw
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by ScarfaceClaw »

At some point this is going to turn into a disaster for all those piling into these price runs late. The arse is going to start falling out of the price, everyone will start scrambling to dump their stock and the next hedge fund/ short investor will clean up.
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goose81
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by goose81 »

ScarfaceClaw wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:52 pm At some point this is going to turn into a disaster for all those piling into these price runs late. The arse is going to start falling out of the price, everyone will start scrambling to dump their stock and the next hedge fund/ short investor will clean up.
Exactly, I went on the wall street thread and there people buying GameStop at its current price thinking its going to keep rising 300%, absolute idiots.
Fruit and Nutt
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Fruit and Nutt »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 4:55 pm Fairly soon the stock will settle at somewhere much closer to its true value.


Wow, Warren Buffet is in the room. :lol:
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by bimboman »

Fruit and Nutt wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:17 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 4:55 pm Fairly soon the stock will settle at somewhere much closer to its true value.


Wow, Warren Buffet is in the room. :lol:

Evening post room toga.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Floppykid »

Stocks rise, stocks fall, but at the end of the day, it's the little man that gets screwed.
Wall Street never changes.
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guy smiley
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by guy smiley »

Fruit and Nutt wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:17 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 4:55 pm Fairly soon the stock will settle at somewhere much closer to its true value.


Wow, Warren Buffet is in the room. :lol:
:lol: :lol:
backrow
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by backrow »

goose81 wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:14 pm
ScarfaceClaw wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:52 pm At some point this is going to turn into a disaster for all those piling into these price runs late. The arse is going to start falling out of the price, everyone will start scrambling to dump their stock and the next hedge fund/ short investor will clean up.
Exactly, I went on the wall street thread and there people buying GameStop at its current price thinking its going to keep rising 300%, absolute idiots.
Where was that ? Sounds like a Chelsea fans forum or Planet Bricklayer
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Jeff the Bear
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Jeff the Bear »

ScarfaceClaw wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:52 pm At some point this is going to turn into a disaster for all those piling into these price runs late. The arse is going to start falling out of the price, everyone will start scrambling to dump their stock and the next hedge fund/ short investor will clean up.
I understand next to nothing about the stock markets, but I've been tracking this for days as it's by some distance the funniest/craziest place on the net at the moment. There does seem to be a certain Kamikaze spirit throughout the whole thing...like they all seem to know there's a fair chance it's going to come crashing down, but as long as they take out a few establishment figures along the way, they'll be sort of happy.
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Zakar
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Zakar »

Jeff the Bear wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:59 pm
ScarfaceClaw wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:52 pm At some point this is going to turn into a disaster for all those piling into these price runs late. The arse is going to start falling out of the price, everyone will start scrambling to dump their stock and the next hedge fund/ short investor will clean up.
I understand next to nothing about the stock markets, but I've been tracking this for days as it's by some distance the funniest/craziest place on the net at the moment. There does seem to be a certain Kamikaze spirit throughout the whole thing...like they all seem to know there's a fair chance it's going to come crashing down, but as long as they take out a few establishment figures along the way, they'll be sort of happy.
R/wallstreetbets is full of people that may have otherwise been captured by QAnon. It's insane, meme driven, full nof people who want to gamble to make it big or take everything down with them. It's glorious to watch.
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Jeff the Bear
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Jeff the Bear »

Zakar wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:10 pm
Jeff the Bear wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:59 pm
ScarfaceClaw wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:52 pm At some point this is going to turn into a disaster for all those piling into these price runs late. The arse is going to start falling out of the price, everyone will start scrambling to dump their stock and the next hedge fund/ short investor will clean up.
I understand next to nothing about the stock markets, but I've been tracking this for days as it's by some distance the funniest/craziest place on the net at the moment. There does seem to be a certain Kamikaze spirit throughout the whole thing...like they all seem to know there's a fair chance it's going to come crashing down, but as long as they take out a few establishment figures along the way, they'll be sort of happy.
R/wallstreetbets is full of people that may have otherwise been captured by QAnon. It's insane, meme driven, full nof people who want to gamble to make it big or take everything down with them. It's glorious to watch.
It's also kind of sad. Literally one of the first posts I've just read having gone back into their ongoing thread was this:
If I sell my one share right now (I won't), I will have received more money from this enterprise to help me get through COVID than everything I've gotten from the US government this year.
The whole thing seems to be full of poor-as-fudge millennials and whatever the generation is after them YOLO-ing their meagre funds into the odd share here and there because they've got no hope of making it out of the hole their life is in otherwise.
de_Selby
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by de_Selby »

That's the whole thing. Huge spillover from 4chan, most people taking the piss and it's mostly hilarious, but there are people literally making 10s of millions and there are also people with almost nothing throwing their life savings on a bet they are probably going to lose.
The fatalism and bleak undercurrent is pretty weird but it's also a meme too.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Flyin Ryan »

Hopefully these Robinhood investors never discover forex.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Leinsterbloke »

I'm not sure the short squeeze is even nearly over.

Short float percentage still at 139% and going up. The hedge funds are buying up higher shorts trying to run the price down but the reddit lads are holding tight. I'm holding for at least another 3 days with all this but I did get in at $11.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-ha ... top-shorts
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by flaggETERNAL »

Jeff the Bear wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:59 pm
ScarfaceClaw wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:52 pm At some point this is going to turn into a disaster for all those piling into these price runs late. The arse is going to start falling out of the price, everyone will start scrambling to dump their stock and the next hedge fund/ short investor will clean up.
I understand next to nothing about the stock markets, but I've been tracking this for days as it's by some distance the funniest/craziest place on the net at the moment. There does seem to be a certain Kamikaze spirit throughout the whole thing...like they all seem to know there's a fair chance it's going to come crashing down, but as long as they take out a few establishment figures along the way, they'll be sort of happy.
Same here and it's the same feeling I get. Reddits are being asked to have "diamond hands" ie hold on to the stock. The redditor who started this Deep Fcuking Value had $50,000 of Gamestop stock is now worth close to $50 million apparently.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by flaggETERNAL »

Flyin Ryan wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:54 am Hopefully these Robinhood investors never discover forex.
There's a certain delicious irony in the name of the program they're using.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Zakar »

Flyin Ryan wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:54 am Hopefully these Robinhood investors never discover forex.
Or CFDs
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Zakar »

flaggETERNAL wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:26 am
Jeff the Bear wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:59 pm
ScarfaceClaw wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:52 pm At some point this is going to turn into a disaster for all those piling into these price runs late. The arse is going to start falling out of the price, everyone will start scrambling to dump their stock and the next hedge fund/ short investor will clean up.
I understand next to nothing about the stock markets, but I've been tracking this for days as it's by some distance the funniest/craziest place on the net at the moment. There does seem to be a certain Kamikaze spirit throughout the whole thing...like they all seem to know there's a fair chance it's going to come crashing down, but as long as they take out a few establishment figures along the way, they'll be sort of happy.
Same here and it's the same feeling I get. Reddits are being asked to have "diamond hands" ie hold on to the stock. The redditor who started this Deep Fcuking Value had $50,000 of Gamestop stock is now worth close to $50 million apparently.
He'll never be able to realise all of that though, as it would arguably be a pump and dump.
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Jeff the Bear
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Jeff the Bear »

Zakar wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:36 am
flaggETERNAL wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:26 am
Jeff the Bear wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:59 pm
ScarfaceClaw wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:52 pm At some point this is going to turn into a disaster for all those piling into these price runs late. The arse is going to start falling out of the price, everyone will start scrambling to dump their stock and the next hedge fund/ short investor will clean up.
I understand next to nothing about the stock markets, but I've been tracking this for days as it's by some distance the funniest/craziest place on the net at the moment. There does seem to be a certain Kamikaze spirit throughout the whole thing...like they all seem to know there's a fair chance it's going to come crashing down, but as long as they take out a few establishment figures along the way, they'll be sort of happy.
Same here and it's the same feeling I get. Reddits are being asked to have "diamond hands" ie hold on to the stock. The redditor who started this Deep Fcuking Value had $50,000 of Gamestop stock is now worth close to $50 million apparently.
He'll never be able to realise all of that though, as it would arguably be a pump and dump.
He's already sold off $13,000,000. Enough to be going on with I suppose. If he holds the rest, win or lose, he's a hero to a bunch of internet nerds. At this stage, it's so crazy, I'm not sure if that's better or worse than $40,000,000. :lol:
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by A5D5E5 »

Jeff the Bear wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:57 am
Zakar wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:36 am
flaggETERNAL wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:26 am
Jeff the Bear wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:59 pm
I understand next to nothing about the stock markets, but I've been tracking this for days as it's by some distance the funniest/craziest place on the net at the moment. There does seem to be a certain Kamikaze spirit throughout the whole thing...like they all seem to know there's a fair chance it's going to come crashing down, but as long as they take out a few establishment figures along the way, they'll be sort of happy.
Same here and it's the same feeling I get. Reddits are being asked to have "diamond hands" ie hold on to the stock. The redditor who started this Deep Fcuking Value had $50,000 of Gamestop stock is now worth close to $50 million apparently.
He'll never be able to realise all of that though, as it would arguably be a pump and dump.
He's already sold off $13,000,000. Enough to be going on with I suppose. If he holds the rest, win or lose, he's a hero to a bunch of internet nerds. At this stage, it's so crazy, I'm not sure if that's better or worse than $40,000,000. :lol:
A "pump and dump" is a scheme to inflate the price of a share before selling it at a profit and is very illegal (have you seen Wolf of Wall Street? - that is what he was doing). I don't know what the legal threshold is for determining if it is such a scheme, but encouraging lots of gullible individuals to put money into a stock you hold a lot of, inflating its price way beyond its intrinsic value and then selling some of it for a massive profit looks from the outside like the sort of thing the SEC would be very interested in. In fact selling part of his holding like that probably makes it more like a pump and dump than it did before he sold.

Many years ago I was interviewed under caution by the SEC in the US embassy as somebody I was vaguely associated with was accused of a pump and dump. Probably the most scary thing I've ever done and I wasn't even being accused of anything.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by bimboman »

Flyin Ryan wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:54 am Hopefully these Robinhood investors never discover forex.
:lol:
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by bimboman »

The pump and dump aspect would be interesting, pointing out to a public forum , public information that a stock was 140% short. The short is the reason for the squeeze and nothing to do with retail investors.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by A5D5E5 »

bimboman wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:45 am The pump and dump aspect would be interesting, pointing out to a public forum , public information that a stock was 140% short. The short is the reason for the squeeze and nothing to do with retail investors.
Possibly. It would of course depend on lots of factors but if the person who supposedly made $13,000,000 had been instrumental in getting lots of people to buy was saying "hold on, don't sell" on reddit while selling their stock at the same time or if there was any evidence that there was a plan to use retail investors to inflate the price before selling there may be a case.

Will be interesting to see what the US authorities say about this once it is over.
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by de_Selby »

I don't think it was coordinated. That guy threw 50k on some calls back a year ago and has just been posting updates on his position.

There are short sellers getting in now who are going to absolutely clean up in a couple of months.
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Jeff the Bear
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Re: Reddit v Hedgefunds

Post by Jeff the Bear »

A5D5E5 wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:16 am
Jeff the Bear wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:57 am
Zakar wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:36 am
flaggETERNAL wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:26 am
Jeff the Bear wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:59 pm
I understand next to nothing about the stock markets, but I've been tracking this for days as it's by some distance the funniest/craziest place on the net at the moment. There does seem to be a certain Kamikaze spirit throughout the whole thing...like they all seem to know there's a fair chance it's going to come crashing down, but as long as they take out a few establishment figures along the way, they'll be sort of happy.
Same here and it's the same feeling I get. Reddits are being asked to have "diamond hands" ie hold on to the stock. The redditor who started this Deep Fcuking Value had $50,000 of Gamestop stock is now worth close to $50 million apparently.
He'll never be able to realise all of that though, as it would arguably be a pump and dump.
He's already sold off $13,000,000. Enough to be going on with I suppose. If he holds the rest, win or lose, he's a hero to a bunch of internet nerds. At this stage, it's so crazy, I'm not sure if that's better or worse than $40,000,000. :lol:
A "pump and dump" is a scheme to inflate the price of a share before selling it at a profit and is very illegal (have you seen Wolf of Wall Street? - that is what he was doing). I don't know what the legal threshold is for determining if it is such a scheme, but encouraging lots of gullible individuals to put money into a stock you hold a lot of, inflating its price way beyond its intrinsic value and then selling some of it for a massive profit looks from the outside like the sort of thing the SEC would be very interested in. In fact selling part of his holding like that probably makes it more like a pump and dump than it did before he sold.

Many years ago I was interviewed under caution by the SEC in the US embassy as somebody I was vaguely associated with was accused of a pump and dump. Probably the most scary thing I've ever done and I wasn't even being accused of anything.
Yeah, but he's just one lad on an internet forum saying that he's bought some stock and he's made serious coin. Is that really illegal?
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