France - Scotland : counting the (*)

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TheFrog
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France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by TheFrog »

So after a lucky escape against Wales, France are lining up to take on Scotland. Can they manage the greatedt robbery in the history of the 6N and beat Scotland by 21+ and a BP?


First question: how many Scots will not be released by their clubs?
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by af73 »

Not so much the full access to players as we were led to believe.

English clubs limited Scotland to 5 players, so Maitland - a likely starter - misses out.
Money will have changed hands (this is PRL we are talking about) but wouldn't be shocked to learn the SRU had to stump up something but told to be quiet while they were doing it.

To sum up; France got a postponement through a crisis of their own making. Should have been required to play or forfeit & have sufficient depth of personnel to so do, certainly more than Scotland has.
Scotland went a month without playing a game then had to play 3 in 12 days stretching their meagre resources, omitting one by imposed constraints and likely a bill to pay as well.

Consequences for the for France? Good chance of clinching the championship.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by shereblue »

Racing 92 also releasing Finn Russell to skew the odds even more against Scotland.

None of the serious 6N sides have lost a game by more than a 5pt margin this year. I don't expect any different this Friday.

Sorry about Maitland.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by C69 »

France praying for a few made up yellow cards in the last 10 mins and penalty tries waved away :nod:
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by TheFrog »

It's really a shame that this COVID crisis caused this mess. Scotland deserved a good shot at this game, and winning, for France, won't be that meaningful.

As for the Covid epidemic among the squad, it was only really bad luck. What happened to the French could have happened to any team as no team actually lived in a proper bubble during this tournament.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by de_Selby »

TheFrog wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:23 am So after a lucky escape against Wales, France are lining up to take on Scotland. Can they manage the greatedt robbery in the history of the 6N and beat Scotland by 21+ and a BP?


First question: how many Scots will not be released by their clubs?
I think scoring 6 tries and winning by any margin might even be the easier path to the championship for France.

I'm hoping Scotland are going to start chucking it around and playing loose so we can have an entertaining game.

Edit: Actually don't mind me.. scoring 6 tries they would still need to win by 20 points..
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TheFrog
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by TheFrog »

de_Selby wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 12:13 pm
TheFrog wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:23 am So after a lucky escape against Wales, France are lining up to take on Scotland. Can they manage the greatedt robbery in the history of the 6N and beat Scotland by 21+ and a BP?


First question: how many Scots will not be released by their clubs?
I think scoring 6 tries and winning by any margin might even be the easier path to the championship for France.

I'm hoping Scotland are going to start chucking it around and playing loose so we can have an entertaining game.
Scotland will be under no pressure. If the French are focused on the 4 tried tally, they may become an easy prey.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by shereblue »

Not anticipating any margin close to 21 points. Obvious perhaps, but winning the game must be the objective. No reason to play it loose.

Notwithstanding the lack of any true bubbles in the other squads, France has been fortunate on a sporting front not to have already lost this game 0-28. Given Fiji's fate in the Autumn.

Regardless of mockers-type match predictions, didn't we all get the last French game wrong in terms of the relative weakness of both French fitness and bench players costing it the last 20'?

I know I did.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Edinburgh01 »

Scotland has nothing to lose, but a lot to gain. A win moves them to third in the table, a slightly better win moves them ahead of France to second. It has been pointed out elsewhere that France have the bigger incentive of winning the Championship. I disagree in that Scotland are so used to be bumping around the bottom of the table, they will see a high finish as much more of an achievement than teams used to being there all the time.

I expect France to come hard at Scotland from the off, with Scotland being more conservative with the aim of wearing France down, then hitting back as France tire.

Apart from possibly Redpath at 12, this will be the most attack minded back division Scotland can put out. Regardless of whether Scotland decide when to let them off the leash and attack, or if they are forced to do so by France breaking through early, if both teams are going for it this could be a very, very open game.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by TheFrog »

I wouldn't bet so much on the French tiring. This was a thing of the past, but under Galthie, the French have vastly improved in fitness and the English defeat was more of a one off (possibly the effect of having been a month without training and playing) rather than the tendency for the last 2 years.

I think the French strengths and weaknesses are known. The one obvious strength is the French attacking power. When the team has the momentum, the link play between backs and forwards, and the sharpness of the backs make them very lethal. You know, when you play France (as a 6N side), that you will concede at least 2 tries.

French weaknesses are several:
- risky attacking game means they will drop the odd ball, creating a turn-over opportunity or an opportunity to revert the momentum.

- when dominated physically, the French tend to give away ground easily (watch the Welsh)

- The 10 area is a defensive weakness well exploited by the Welsh and the Italian for example.

- tendency to self-destruct with ill discipline at the wrong time

- the French pack isn't excellent and the Scottish pack should be the better unit

In my opinion, this will be a tight but exciting game with plenty of scores.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

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There's something very strange going on. First they get extra time off to prepare for the England game, then, strangest of all, the french clubs release their players for an extra week without going to court or kicking off in the papers.
smell a big fat french ratty asterisk.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Edinburgh01 »

Tiring was perhaps not the right word, perhaps focus is better.

What I was trying to say is that there are always momentum changes in a game. Sometimes it is physical, sometimes mental, sometimes both, sometimes a lucky bounce, but sooner or later, when playing a similar level team, the momentum changes.

I am not suggesting that Scotland would sit back and soak up French pressure. But I do think early on they will keep it tight, and if there is a 50:50 choice between Scotland throwing the ball around on attack and kicking, the ball will go 50m downfield into France's half.

Then assuming they have not punched themselves out, they take advantage when things shift their way.

Sorry if I'm not making this clear, I just think France need to attack more as they need a bigger winning margin, Scotland can afford to sit back waiting for an opportunity when France over do it, or try and force things too eagerly.

But if France go ahead early, all bets are off.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by shereblue »

message #2527204 wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:12 pm There's something very strange going on. First they get extra time off to prepare for the England game, then, strangest of all, the french clubs release their players for an extra week without going to court or kicking off in the papers.
smell a big fat french ratty asterisk.
FFR enjoying Top 14 assistance. Proof of French cheating. :x
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by shereblue »

French can be especially prone to taking their eye off the ball when they have a big lead and seem in control. Own up Clermont especially.

If they perform and play to a normal pattern, still mindful of defence, the 4 tries will likely come. I am simply mindful that Scotland are threatening in their own right and do not see any significant margin either way.

I'd not noted any comparative French defensive weakness at 10 this 6N, though rate Ntmack superior to a somewhat weak Jalibert in that particular regard.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by TheFrog »

shereblue wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:48 pm French can be especially prone to taking their eye off the ball when they have a big lead and seem in control. Own up Clermont especially.

If they perform and play to a normal pattern, still mindful of defence, the 4 tries will likely come. I am simply mindful that Scotland are threatening in their own right and do not see any significant margin either way.

I'd not noted any comparative French defensive weakness at 10 this 6N, though rate Ntmack superior to a somewhat weak Jalibert in that particular regard.
Watch the Welsh game again, and look at where they made the line breaks. Most decisive ones were in Jalibert's zone.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by TheFrog »

Edinburgh01 wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:26 pm Tiring was perhaps not the right word, perhaps focus is better.

What I was trying to say is that there are always momentum changes in a game. Sometimes it is physical, sometimes mental, sometimes both, sometimes a lucky bounce, but sooner or later, when playing a similar level team, the momentum changes.

I am not suggesting that Scotland would sit back and soak up French pressure. But I do think early on they will keep it tight, and if there is a 50:50 choice between Scotland throwing the ball around on attack and kicking, the ball will go 50m downfield into France's half.

Then assuming they have not punched themselves out, they take advantage when things shift their way.

Sorry if I'm not making this clear, I just think France need to attack more as they need a bigger winning margin, Scotland can afford to sit back waiting for an opportunity when France over do it, or try and force things too eagerly.

But if France go ahead early, all bets are off.
You are right in the sense that when games are tight and teams close to each other, games are won on some details which can change the momentum.

A knock-on on the scoring area, a kick off not well collected, a poor clearance, a ill timed penalty and the momentum can swing.

You look at the Wales-France game, and you can see that Wales were the better team, but France had the firing power to score first. But Wales always looked like they would always convert possession into points. That was the Welsh strength for the first 60min, until that non-penalty try that gave way to a penalty and a 10pts lead.

You look at these 60 minutes and at that point you think that the French better not drop that ball or commit a penalty offense because they know that once they give away possession, Wales will grind them all the way to their try line. And twice the French do very well and score two very good tries. Until they drop a ball. And the Welsh take the lead. And again after the second half kick off.

The mystery for me is how could the Welsh then suddenly lose control of that game? Especially after that ref card that should have given them some comfort to soak up the pressure relying on the extra man.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by TheFrog »

France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Virimi Vakatawa, 12 Arthur Vincent, 11 Gael Fickou, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont, 8 Gregory Aldritt, 7 Charles Ollivon (c), 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Swan Rebbadj, 4 Bernard le Roux, 3 Mohamed Haouas, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Cyril Baille

Replacements: 16 Camille Chat, 17 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 18 Uini Atonio, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Dylan Cretin, 21 Baptiste Serin, 22 Anthony Bouthier, 23 Teddy Thomas
The scrum is going to be creaking without specialist right-hand side lock...
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by TheFrog »

Scotland: 15-Stuart Hogg (capt), 14-Darcy Graham, 13-Chris Harris, 12-Sam Johnson, 11-Duhan van der Merwe, 10-Finn Russell, 9-Ali Price; 1-Rory Sutherland, 2-George Turner, 3-Zander Fagerson, 4-Sam Skinner, 5-Grant Gilchrist, 6-Jamie Ritchie, 7-Hamish Watson, 8-Matt Fagerson

Replacements: 16-Dave Cherry, 17-Oli Kebble, 18-Simon Berghan, 19-Alex Craig, 20-Nick Haining, 21-Scott Steele, 22-Adam Hastings, 23-Huw Jones
Zander Fagerson should not have played against France, and Paul Willemse should have played for France.

Scrum penalty for Scotland are (*).

Any try scored by Z Fagerson are (**).
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by bessantj »

Come on Scotland!!!
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by bilou »

Anyone talking about 21+ point difference or offensive bonus point for France should remember our last encounters. France lost last year and struggled in the autumn.

I'm expected a close game and possibly with not lot of tries.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by shereblue »

Even in a hard fought and serious game, I think France are capable of 4 tries over the full 80'. However I would expect Scotland to be causing damage of their own, so do not see a meaningful margin, either way.

But let's dream, it's 35-14 with the clock on red and Scotland get a kickable penalty.

You might ordinarily expect them to go for a 5 m lineout to put a better gloss on a mild tonking.

But surely, Shirley, they'd kick the points knowing the effect on the Championship. Or would they?

But if it were 42-21, surely, Shirley, they'd go for the 5m. lineout and the chance of a 4 try bonus point?

As I've observed, there have been no matches ending with margins greater than 5 points between the top 4, so all pretty hypothetical. In that respect, it's been an engrossing 6N and worthy of an asterisk on that aspect alone.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by TheFrog »

I can see a 32 - 25 scoreline with 4 tries to 3.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Frodder »

Is this the official match thread?
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Gwenno »

France’s missed conversion at the end was a ‘four pointer’ because it would have added 2 to their PD and taken 2 off Wales’s - hope that makes the difference!
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by C69 »

shereblue wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:18 pm Even in a hard fought and serious game, I think France are capable of 4 tries over the full 80'. However I would expect Scotland to be causing damage of their own, so do not see a meaningful margin, either way.

But let's dream, it's 35-14 with the clock on red and Scotland get a kickable penalty.

You might ordinarily expect them to go for a 5 m lineout to put a better gloss on a mild tonking.

But surely, Shirley, they'd kick the points knowing the effect on the Championship. Or would they?

But if it were 42-21, surely, Shirley, they'd go for the 5m. lineout and the chance of a 4 try bonus point?

As I've observed, there have been no matches ending with margins greater than 5 points between the top 4, so all pretty hypothetical. In that respect, it's been an engrossing 6N and worthy of an asterisk on that aspect alone.
I was going to get all indignant and point out the WLes and Ireland scores against...


The 5th placed team :lol:

Oh that's cheered my day up. Now to do some gardening
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Frodder »

Gwenno wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:00 am France’s missed conversion at the end was a ‘four pointer’ because it would have added 2 to their PD and taken 2 off Wales’s - hope that makes the difference!
I missed the conversion due to distressed state
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Gwenno »

Have Scotland picked Wynn Jones? Galthie is getting a bit worried.....
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by C69 »

Frodder wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:50 am
Gwenno wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:00 am France’s missed conversion at the end was a ‘four pointer’ because it would have added 2 to their PD and taken 2 off Wales’s - hope that makes the difference!
I missed the conversion due to distressed state
Did Jeff even do a player rating?
I was strangely happy after the game.
Just remmber we were 5th last year, who will finish 5th this year?
:smug: :nod: :P
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Da iawn diolch »

shereblue wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:04 am Racing 92 also releasing Finn Russell to skew the odds even more against Scotland.
:lol: :lol:
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Frodder »

C69 wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:57 am
Frodder wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:50 am
Gwenno wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:00 am France’s missed conversion at the end was a ‘four pointer’ because it would have added 2 to their PD and taken 2 off Wales’s - hope that makes the difference!
I missed the conversion due to distressed state
Did Jeff even do a player rating?
I was strangely happy after the game.
Just remmber we were 5th last year, who will finish 5th this year?
:smug: :nod: :P
No he didn't. Strange as we'd have the highest ratings if he did
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Edinburgh01 »

Matt Fagerson out due to a training injury, Haining in. Ryan Wilson on the bench.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by The Sun God »

As match threads go, this is a new low for PR.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Edinburgh01 »

The Auld Alliance Trophy.

Scotland have won it twice as many times as France.

Image
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Da iawn diolch »

Edinburgh01 wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:10 pm Matt Fagerson out due to a training injury, Haining in. Ryan Wilson on the bench.
That's a shame for us. He'd looked good. What's Haining like?
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Frodder »

Da iawn diolch wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:13 pm
Edinburgh01 wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:10 pm Matt Fagerson out due to a training injury, Haining in. Ryan Wilson on the bench.
That's a shame for us. He'd looked good. What's Haining like?
Aussie poach isn't he? Not great from what I've seen.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by shereblue »

Would gladly settle for a great game tonight and a deserved Welsh win of this year's asterisked Championship*.

But you never know.......10 minutes to go, it's 28-22 (4T v 3T) when:

France score, and they then need one more converted try to win the Championship

Scotland score, and they then need one more converted try to take 2nd spot.
Last edited by shereblue on Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Frodder »

As match threads go this right down there
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Edinburgh01 »

Da iawn diolch wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:13 pm
Edinburgh01 wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:10 pm Matt Fagerson out due to a training injury, Haining in. Ryan Wilson on the bench.
That's a shame for us. He'd looked good. What's Haining like?
He can't get a start for Edinburgh due to Mata. In a couple of recent games he was not even picked ahead of Miller who was with the squad and sent back to Edinburgh.

Haining is not a powerful ball carrier, but is decent at linking with the backs. Since we already have two backrowers who do the linking role, I don't see why we need a third. I'd have preferred Wilson to start.

Edit.
Under normal circumstances Cornell Du Preez would be the next in line. But even though Worcester said they'd be happy to release him, they can't due the 5 player agreement with the Premiership.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Edinburgh01 »

Statistics that surprise me.

Scotland and France have both scored 15 tries.

Scotland and France have both conceded 11 tries.

Points differences are France +41, Scotland +43.
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Re: France - Scotland : counting the (*)

Post by Da iawn diolch »

Edinburgh01 wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:31 pm Statistics that surprise me.

Scotland and France have both scored 15 tries.

Scotland and France have both conceded 11 tries.

Points differences are France +41, Scotland +43.
That doesn't shock me.

France have been utter, disinterested toss at times in this tournament.
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