Planet Rugby Forum

This is a must-win match for both teams, and thus I think it will quite intense.

Obviously Sam Whitelock and Codie Taylor will return to the starting XV. Hopefully Fainga'anuku's concussion isn't serious and he comes back into the team at centre. I also hope Tom Sanders is retained at 7.

Not sure what to make of Scott Barrett at 6. I think he did pretty well, and I didn't mind Blackadder at 8 either. Leaving Barrett at 6 means Dunshea starts and partners Whitelock at lock, which I think is deserved.

So, what can we do to break out of a clear malaise?

In any other season, our recent record would be two losses and a draw. That it isn't three losses is mostly down to luck and the coin flip nature of golden point.

The good news is we're guaranteed a place in the final. The Highlanders can only get to 19 competition points, and the Chiefs and Blues play each other in the final round, meaning they can't both surpass the 23 points we currently have.

The other good news is we're back at home, and it's within our own control to keep it that way. It's a must-win game for both teams. For the Crusaders, a win of any kind secures a home final. Lose, and either the Chiefs or Blues could overtake us with two wins.

For the Blues, they will know if the Chiefs win this weekend and they lose, they can all but kiss their finals hopes goodbye.

As such, I expect this game to be played at a near test-match intensity and decided by a handful of key moments.

Looking over the stats via ESPN Scrum for our last three games, a few things stand out.

Firstly, we've lost the penalty count in all 3, conceding an average of 12 penalties per game vs 9.33 for our opponents. You won't win many games with that sort of discipline.

Secondly, we've been on the wrong side of possession and territory in all 3 games, averaging just 42% possession and 43% territory. That's not necessarily terminal - the All Blacks have often won games with those sort of numbers, but it doesn't help.

Thirdly, we've come out on the wrong side of turnovers conceded, often by whopping margins, averaging over 18 per game compared to 10 for our opponents.

Finally, and probably most importantly, we have lost the crucial rucks won percentage in all 3 games.

Defenders beaten, run metres, and clean breaks count for nothing if you are losing all of those areas so soundly.

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:46 am So, what can we do to break out of a clear malaise?

In any other season, our recent record would be two losses and a draw. That it isn't three losses is mostly down to luck and the coin flip nature of golden point.

The good news is we're guaranteed a place in the final. The Highlanders can only get to 19 competition points, and the Chiefs and Blues play each other in the final round, meaning they can't both surpass the 23 points we currently have.

The other good news is we're back at home, and it's within our own control to keep it that way. It's a must-win game for both teams. For the Crusaders, a win of any kind secures a home final. Lose, and either the Chiefs or Blues could overtake us with two wins.

For the Blues, they will know if the Chiefs win this weekend and they lose, they can all but kiss their finals hopes goodbye.

As such, I expect this game to be played at a near test-match intensity and decided by a handful of key moments.

Looking over the stats via ESPN Scrum for our last three games, a few things stand out.

Firstly, we've lost the penalty count in all 3, conceding an average of 12 penalties per game vs 9.33 for our opponents. You won't win many games with that sort of discipline.

Secondly, we've been on the wrong side of possession and territory in all 3 games, averaging just 42% possession and 43% territory. That's not necessarily terminal - the All Blacks have often won games with those sort of numbers, but it doesn't help.

Thirdly, we've come out on the wrong side of turnovers conceded, often by whopping margins, averaging over 18 per game compared to 10 for our opponents.

Finally, and probably most importantly, we have lost the crucial rucks won percentage in all 3 games.

Defenders beaten, run metres, and clean breaks count for nothing if you are losing all of those areas so soundly.

Good post.

I think in each of the last three matches we were playing against a team that was hungrier than we were. We were up against desperate teams. I'm not sure how we get hungrier? The reality is that Robertson is trying to get his players 'up' for a 5-peat of tournament wins, and that's just about impossible to do.

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:51 am Good post.

I think in each of the last three matches we were playing against a team that was hungrier than we were. We were up against desperate teams. I'm not sure how we get hungrier? The reality is that Robertson is trying to get his players 'up' for a 5-peat of tournament wins, and that's just about impossible to do.

I agree, we've looked complacent ever since the bye.

I guess the hope is that the motivation returns with actual stakes hanging on this game. A home final is on the line against the old enemy. If they can't get up for that, then I think we can kiss this part of the season goodbye and look ahead to beating up on the Waratahs and Force.

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:01 am

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:51 am Good post.

I think in each of the last three matches we were playing against a team that was hungrier than we were. We were up against desperate teams. I'm not sure how we get hungrier? The reality is that Robertson is trying to get his players 'up' for a 5-peat of tournament wins, and that's just about impossible to do.

I agree, we've looked complacent ever since the bye.

I guess the hope is that the motivation returns with actual stakes hanging on this game. A home final is on the line against the old enemy. If they can't get up for that, then I think we can kiss this part of the season goodbye and look ahead to beating up on the Waratahs and Force.

Man I'm looking forward to watching all the NZ franchises thrashing useless Aussie nothing-teams.

What did people think of Brodie McAliser's performance? I was impressed, I think he was busy and accurate. He's a big body as well.

I think the Reds and Brumbies will go toe to toe with the Kiwi teams.

I do think the Rebels, Tahs and Force will cop some hidings though.

guy smiley wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:30 am

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:01 am

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:51 am Good post.

I think in each of the last three matches we were playing against a team that was hungrier than we were. We were up against desperate teams. I'm not sure how we get hungrier? The reality is that Robertson is trying to get his players 'up' for a 5-peat of tournament wins, and that's just about impossible to do.

I agree, we've looked complacent ever since the bye.

I guess the hope is that the motivation returns with actual stakes hanging on this game. A home final is on the line against the old enemy. If they can't get up for that, then I think we can kiss this part of the season goodbye and look ahead to beating up on the Waratahs and Force.

I'm not sure that complacent is the right word. I'm not saying you're wrong... there's something not right, I just don't know whether it's complacency. For whatever reason they haven't managed to switch back on after the week off.

That isn't a good precedent with a bye before the final

Yeah, perhaps complacent isn't quite right. Whatever it is, we've been about 5% off and that's plenty at this level.

Does Scott Barrett's leadership and ability to dig the team out of this trough come under question at some point?

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:04 am What did people think of Brodie McAliser's performance? I was impressed, I think he was busy and accurate. He's a big body as well.

Agree - played well and looked comfortable.

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:03 am

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:01 am

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:51 am Good post.

I think in each of the last three matches we were playing against a team that was hungrier than we were. We were up against desperate teams. I'm not sure how we get hungrier? The reality is that Robertson is trying to get his players 'up' for a 5-peat of tournament wins, and that's just about impossible to do.

I agree, we've looked complacent ever since the bye.

I guess the hope is that the motivation returns with actual stakes hanging on this game. A home final is on the line against the old enemy. If they can't get up for that, then I think we can kiss this part of the season goodbye and look ahead to beating up on the Waratahs and Force.

Man I'm looking forward to watching all the NZ franchises thrashing useless Aussie nothing-teams.

I wonder if, and hindsight is great, Robertson could have rotated his squad better through the earlier rounds? I don't have any figures as I'm a bit lazy, but hadn't they all played every game till this week? For a start, as well as Taylor, Whitelock, and Mounga were playing, could they have been 'managed' better through the earlier games? Now of course, Taylor and Whitelock will come back, but you would think Mounga could have had a wee rest before now.

Peteray wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:42 am I wonder if, and hindsight is great, Robertson could have rotated his squad better through the earlier rounds? I don't have any figures as I'm a bit lazy, but hadn't they all played every game till this week? For a start, as well as Taylor, Whitelock, and Mounga were playing, could they have been 'managed' better through the earlier games? Now of course, Taylor and Whitelock will come back, but you would think Mounga could have had a wee rest before now.

We don't have another no.10 to rotate Mo'unga with. David Havili is our back-up 10.

Mo'unga got a couple of early showers in the early rounds. That's as good as it gets with Burke and Cameron as backups.

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:24 pm Mo'unga got a couple of early showers in the early rounds. That's as good as it gets with Burke and Cameron as backups.

I think we need to keep some perspective. It's only an 8 game round robin with two byes. It's a very short comp.

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:26 pm

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:24 pm Mo'unga got a couple of early showers in the early rounds. That's as good as it gets with Burke and Cameron as backups.

I think we need to keep some perspective. It's only an 8 game round robin with two byes. It's a very short comp.

Exactly, that too coming off the back of the lightest test schedule in years in terms of both matches and travel.

Crusaders will be up for this, going to be interesting to see the team named and playing the old enemy at home should bring a huge crowd.

Hodgman out for 3 weeks after his red card shoulder on Friday.

Guess which day there's rugby on.

One positive is that the team definitely played better on Saturday than in the previous two matches, despite a bit of a make-shift feel in the forward pack. With Whitelock back, I would like to see Dunshea partner him in the engine room.

JPNZ wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:42 am Hodgman out for 3 weeks after his red card shoulder on Friday.

Seems about right. I thought he'd get at least 3 weeks on the sideline at the time. Since there's only two rounds left does that carry over to the trans tasman competition? Unless the Blues make the final.

Kiwias wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:17 am One positive is that the team definitely played better on Saturday than in the previous two matches, despite a bit of a make-shift feel in the forward pack. With Whitelock back, I would like to see Dunshea partner him in the engine room.

Barrett remaining at blindside, or drop the captain?

Don't disagree tbh, but it would be a big call either way.

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:38 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:17 am One positive is that the team definitely played better on Saturday than in the previous two matches, despite a bit of a make-shift feel in the forward pack. With Whitelock back, I would like to see Dunshea partner him in the engine room.

Barrett remaining at blindside, or drop the captain?

Don't disagree tbh, but it would be a big call either way.

I'm leaning towards keeping Barrett, and playing Grace off the bench. Barrett showed more in the last game then we've seen from Grace so far this season. Moreover, Barrett has more credits in the bank, IMO not just as our captain but as a player of excellence over many years. This backrow would be able to match the Blues for size, although it's a bit of a case of Poly's vs Palagis.

8. Blackadder
7. Sanders
6. Barrett

20. Grace

Seeing Clarke coming in and running so nicely off Black's shoulder on the weekend made me think he could be a great "inside centre" some day. His build and running style remind me of a young Nonu. Given his bulk I can't imagine he will retain his top end pace as he gets older and All Black wingers have such short careers would be a good time to make the move as a project and work on his passing and defense. Have him as a bailout option for Black, tell him to put his head down get his legs pumping and set up go forward for the next phase.

Blues are a confidence team and confidence will be rock bottom against the Crusaders who they seem to have a bit of a mental block with.

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:44 am

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:38 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:17 am One positive is that the team definitely played better on Saturday than in the previous two matches, despite a bit of a make-shift feel in the forward pack. With Whitelock back, I would like to see Dunshea partner him in the engine room.

Barrett remaining at blindside, or drop the captain?

Don't disagree tbh, but it would be a big call either way.

I'm leaning towards keeping Barrett, and playing Grace off the bench. Barrett showed more in the last game then we've seen from Grace so far this season. Moreover, Barrett has more credits in the bank, IMO not just as our captain but as a player of excellence over many years. This backrow would be able to match the Blues for size, although it's a bit of a case of Poly's vs Palagis.

8. Blackadder
7. Sanders
6. Barrett

20. Grace

Dalton and Hoskins are both Palagi too, and if Robinson is there then he's Ginga and Palagi.

So it will basically three Palagi v Palagi and the Poly Akira v the Palagi Grace on the bench.

UncleFB wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:59 am

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:44 am

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:38 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:17 am One positive is that the team definitely played better on Saturday than in the previous two matches, despite a bit of a make-shift feel in the forward pack. With Whitelock back, I would like to see Dunshea partner him in the engine room.

Barrett remaining at blindside, or drop the captain?

Don't disagree tbh, but it would be a big call either way.

I'm leaning towards keeping Barrett, and playing Grace off the bench. Barrett showed more in the last game then we've seen from Grace so far this season. Moreover, Barrett has more credits in the bank, IMO not just as our captain but as a player of excellence over many years. This backrow would be able to match the Blues for size, although it's a bit of a case of Poly's vs Palagis.

8. Blackadder
7. Sanders
6. Barrett

20. Grace

Dalton and Hoskins are both Palagi too, and if Robinson is there then he's Ginga and Palagi.

So it will basically three Palagi v Palagi and the Poly Akira v the Palagi Grace on the bench.

Papali'i is a Samoan surname. And Hoskins is half Fijian. Afakasi's don't count as palagi, don't ask me why I didn't make the rules.

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:14 am

UncleFB wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:59 am

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:44 am

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:38 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:17 am One positive is that the team definitely played better on Saturday than in the previous two matches, despite a bit of a make-shift feel in the forward pack. With Whitelock back, I would like to see Dunshea partner him in the engine room.

Barrett remaining at blindside, or drop the captain?

Don't disagree tbh, but it would be a big call either way.

I'm leaning towards keeping Barrett, and playing Grace off the bench. Barrett showed more in the last game then we've seen from Grace so far this season. Moreover, Barrett has more credits in the bank, IMO not just as our captain but as a player of excellence over many years. This backrow would be able to match the Blues for size, although it's a bit of a case of Poly's vs Palagis.

8. Blackadder
7. Sanders
6. Barrett

20. Grace

Dalton and Hoskins are both Palagi too, and if Robinson is there then he's Ginga and Palagi.

So it will basically three Palagi v Palagi and the Poly Akira v the Palagi Grace on the bench.

Papali'i is a Samoan surname. And Hoskins is half Fijian. Afakasi's don't count as palagi, don't ask me why I didn't make the rules.

Ok, I'll change it to Pakeha, we're not zero sum with our ethnicity like you lot.

UncleFB wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:19 am Ok, I'll change it to Pakeha, we're not zero sum with our ethnicity like you lot.

So Maori call anyone with any white blood a pakeha? Interesting to know

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:24 am

UncleFB wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:19 am Ok, I'll change it to Pakeha, we're not zero sum with our ethnicity like you lot.

So Maori call anyone with any white blood a pakeha? Interesting to know

Probably not all Maori, but for the purposes of this not overly serious loose forward discussion yes .

For me to not acknowledge that I was also Pakeha would be to deny my whakapapa, and the essence of being Maori is whakapapa, so therefore I am Pakeha.

guy smiley wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:01 am

UncleFB wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:31 am

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:24 am

UncleFB wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:19 am Ok, I'll change it to Pakeha, we're not zero sum with our ethnicity like you lot.

So Maori call anyone with any white blood a pakeha? Interesting to know

Probably not all Maori, but for the purposes of this not overly serious loose forward discussion yes .

For me to not acknowledge that I was also Pakeha would be to deny my whakapapa, and the essence of being Maori is whakapapa, so therefore I am Pakeha.

F**k me, after that lot you're the white Sid Going.

I prefer to consider myself the brown Hoskins Sotutu.

Scott Robertson must be feeling tired of having to keep his team at the top for 5 seasons straight. An unprecedented feat. Perhaps his mind is already firmly set on the England job that he's already been assured of by RFU and is struggling with motivating the team towards another title in 5 seasons? I mean the intensity and level of detail required to keep a team champions for 5 bloody seasons in a row must be insane. I wouldn't blame him if he couldn't give a stuff anymore.

guy smiley wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:13 am

UncleFB wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:07 am

guy smiley wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:01 am

F**k me, after that lot you're the white Sid Going.

I prefer to consider myself the brown Hoskins Sotutu.

He could never twist, turn and wriggle the way the White Sid Going just did.

Well actually, despite the less than serious tone of these posts, nothing of what I wrote is actually inconsistent with my beliefs, and back in my research/consultancy days I did quite a bit of work in the area of ethnicity/culture which has influenced my thought.

I think it's pretty reductive to not acknowledge your ethnicity/ancestry due to the colour of your skin or the vowels in your last name. In saying that I'm not having a go at the Samoan's for how they define Palagi, that's up to them.

deverix wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:11 am Scott Robertson must be feeling tired of having to keep his team at the top for 5 seasons straight. An unprecedented feat. Perhaps his mind is already firmly set on the England job that he's already been assured of by RFU and is struggling with motivating the team towards another title in 5 seasons? I mean the intensity and level of detail required to keep a team champions for 5 bloody seasons in a row must be insane. I wouldn't blame him if he couldn't give a stuff anymore.

Little piece on Stuff on how the Saders lose of form (relative) coincides exactly with Robertson saying how nice it was to be considered in the context of roles like the English job.

Hard to see how his comments would have any real impact but let’s see after the weekend.

Can't see the blues avoiding being dumb for long enough to keep ahead of the saders, loose forward battle should be great

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:38 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:17 am One positive is that the team definitely played better on Saturday than in the previous two matches, despite a bit of a make-shift feel in the forward pack. With Whitelock back, I would like to see Dunshea partner him in the engine room.

Barrett remaining at blindside, or drop the captain?

Don't disagree tbh, but it would be a big call either way.

Barrett at blindside with Blackadder at 8 and Sanders at 7.

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:13 am

guy smiley wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:30 am

mrbrownstone wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:01 am

Ali's Choice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:51 am Good post.

I think in each of the last three matches we were playing against a team that was hungrier than we were. We were up against desperate teams. I'm not sure how we get hungrier? The reality is that Robertson is trying to get his players 'up' for a 5-peat of tournament wins, and that's just about impossible to do.

I agree, we've looked complacent ever since the bye.

I guess the hope is that the motivation returns with actual stakes hanging on this game. A home final is on the line against the old enemy. If they can't get up for that, then I think we can kiss this part of the season goodbye and look ahead to beating up on the Waratahs and Force.

I'm not sure that complacent is the right word. I'm not saying you're wrong... there's something not right, I just don't know whether it's complacency. For whatever reason they haven't managed to switch back on after the week off.

That isn't a good precedent with a bye before the final

Yeah, perhaps complacent isn't quite right. Whatever it is, we've been about 5% off and that's plenty at this level.

Does Scott Barrett's leadership and ability to dig the team out of this trough come under question at some point?

Did you guys ever think that the other teams might have come up with game plans to negate the Saders game plan? That the Saders are not that far ahead of the pack anymore and even when the Saders get their better players back, the confidence in the other teams brings them up to their level (Apart from the dumbfvck Blues)? The Crusaders scrum is no longer the weapon it was.

Maybe arrogance is getting in the way of logical thinking.

Pretty sure arrogance was the undoing of the AB's at the last RWC and a lack of Plan B. Do the Saders have a Plan B? A win against the Blues this weekend may give a sense of false security, after all, the brain cell count in the Blues under pressure is pretty low.

This is a big match. Blues don't do big matches. Crusaders do.

Home team by 40+

kiwigreg369 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:59 am

deverix wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:11 am Scott Robertson must be feeling tired of having to keep his team at the top for 5 seasons straight. An unprecedented feat. Perhaps his mind is already firmly set on the England job that he's already been assured of by RFU and is struggling with motivating the team towards another title in 5 seasons? I mean the intensity and level of detail required to keep a team champions for 5 bloody seasons in a row must be insane. I wouldn't blame him if he couldn't give a stuff anymore.

Little piece on Stuff on how the Saders lose of form (relative) coincides exactly with Robertson saying how nice it was to be considered in the context of roles like the English job.

Hard to see how his comments would have any real impact but let’s see after the weekend.

Wasn't it the week that Robertson was mouthing off in the media about wanting some sort of promise or guarantee about the All Black job that the Crusaders got pasted at home by the Highlanders?

Don't get me wrong, I'm a Robertson fan. That just seemed to me like an affront to the mocker gods. To put it in PR terms.

booji boy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:52 pm Wasn't it the week that Robertson was mouthing off in the media about wanting some sort of promise or guarantee about the All Black job that the Crusaders got pasted at home by the Highlanders?

Don't get me wrong, I'm a Robertson fan. That just seemed to me like an affront to the mocker gods. To put it in PR terms.

Robertson has never demanded the AB job. And he has nothing left to prove at SR level. He's won four SR titles which is more than Graham Henry, Steve Hansen and Ian Foster won combined. When he leaves NZ because his pathway to international level is non-existent, he will leave with this his head held high. He couldn't have done anything more.

Fat Old Git wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:16 am Guess which day there's rugby on.

Forecast now for 18°C and sunny on Sunday, with the rain and cold front arriving for Monday instead. So it might be a nice day to actually enjoy some afternoon rugby.

[quote="les@mooloolaba
[/quote]
Did you guys ever think that the other teams might have come up with game plans to negate the Saders game plan? That the Saders are not that far ahead of the pack anymore and even when the Saders get their better players back, the confidence in the other teams brings them up to their level (Apart from the dumbfvck Blues)? The Crusaders scrum is no longer the weapon it was.

Maybe arrogance is getting in the way of logical thinking.

Pretty sure arrogance was the undoing of the AB's at the last RWC and a lack of Plan B. Do the Saders have a Plan B? A win against the Blues this weekend may give a sense of false security, after all, the brain cell count in the Blues under pressure is pretty low.
[/quote]

I think there is a lot to what you say les@, Highlanders caused them a problem because they just didn't let them use their scrum to win penalty after penalty. Chiefs similar, didn't let them play to their pattern, and without dominant scrum to use I think maybe Crusaders struggled to adapt. I still think they will, regardless of how many super caps etc they have lost over the off season etc, they still close to having one of the more experianced teams in Super Ao, and you would think that they will find a way to shut Blues down, as I not sure there seems to be a hell of a lot of IQ in their players or coaching team.
Think Razor a bloody good coach, but by same token I have immense respect for the way Brown and McMillan have found ways to beat them , with seemingly a lesser roster of players, but using good skills and tactics.
I surely hope there is absolutely not even a shred of evidnce to suggest that Razor is struggling to get his team up for a 5-peat, as if and when he gets AB jobs, he might not be able to get them up for Bledisloe cup games, as they could be going for what a 20peat!
I actually think Crusaders by about 15, playing against a team with plenty of experience so Razor won't try to beat them just in set piece, and I think the Blues coaching team ( and players)probably will struggle to come up a better plan.