Perth fvcked

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Clogs
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:51 pm
Clogs wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:36 pm
Ali's Choice wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:31 pm So Perth is in the midst of a 3 day lockdown. I presume that our resident anti-lockdown troll Clogs has already demanded that Mark McGowan be publicly buggered and then forced to call a snap election?
Truly dumb post. I am 100% supportive of the go hard go early strategy. I was even scathing of Gladys for failing to do so in NSW. You need some new material.
So you've completely changed your tune from last year, where you spent your entire time on this forum attacking Dan Andrews for implementing a lockdown? We all remember this Clogs, it was only months ago. We all remember you tearfully demanding that elderly Victorians be sacrificed to the virus so businesses could make much more profit.
Months and months of painful lockdown due to the "no one knows who signed" bungled hotel quarantine scam vs go hard and go early to prevent months and months of lockdown. Two very different things. Perhaps it is too nuanced for you?
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Re: Perth fvcked

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Clogs wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:09 am Months and months of painful lockdown due to the "no one knows who signed" bungled hotel quarantine scam vs go hard and go early to prevent months and months of lockdown. Two very different things. Perhaps it is too nuanced for you?
You were passionately ant-lockdown. You were literally arguing that people under 50 should be free from all restrictions and free to do whatever they wanted. They were your words. You were hysterical.

PS - short lockdowns only work when there are small numbers of cases. That wasn't the case in Victoria, and you know this.
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Re: Perth fvcked

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Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:14 am
Clogs wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:09 am Months and months of painful lockdown due to the "no one knows who signed" bungled hotel quarantine scam vs go hard and go early to prevent months and months of lockdown. Two very different things. Perhaps it is too nuanced for you?
You were passionately ant-lockdown. You were literally arguing that people under 50 should be free from all restrictions and free to do whatever they wanted. They were your words. You were hysterical.

PS - short lockdowns only work when there are small numbers of cases. That wasn't the case in Victoria, and you know this.

How do you end up with a large number of cases? You mismanage a small number of cases.
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Re: Perth fvcked

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Clogs wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:16 am How do you end up with a large number of cases? You mismanage a small number of cases.
What you're effectively saying is that Victoria should have been perfect from the very beginning. That they should have foreseen how the global, once in a century pandemic would play out before it happened, and taken steps to manage it.

You're a liar and a fraud. You oppose lockdowns when it suits you, and you support them when it suits you. You claim to be politically neutral but all you do is troll the ALP and cyber-fellate the Coalition. I need to go and attend to some ANZAC Day business but I look forward to arguing with you later. Have a great day.
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Re: Perth fvcked

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Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:21 am
Clogs wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:16 am How do you end up with a large number of cases? You mismanage a small number of cases.
What you're effectively saying is that Victoria should have been perfect from the very beginning. That they should have foreseen how the global, once in a century pandemic would play out before it happened, and taken steps to manage it.

You're a liar and a fraud. You oppose lockdowns when it suits you, and you support them when it suits you. You claim to be politically neutral but all you do is troll the ALP and cyber-fellate the Coalition. I need to go and attend to some ANZAC Day business but I look forward to arguing with you later. Have a great day.

Not perfect, just better. They were fvcking hopeless. Pen and paper tracking etc. You want to prove me wrong? I dare you. You can prove the hotel quarantine scam was a well managed system if you can tell me who from the Vixtorian government authorised and signed the deal. I fvcking triple dare you. And if you can't, then I will take that as an admission from you that Dan and his crew royally fvcked it a up and forced us into months of unnecessary hardship.

So up to you now.
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Re: Perth fvcked

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Clogs wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:29 am Not perfect, just better. They were fvcking hopeless. Pen and paper tracking etc. You want to prove me wrong? I dare you. You can prove the hotel quarantine scam was a well managed system if you can tell me who from the Vixtorian government authorised and signed the deal. I fvcking triple dare you. And if you can't, then I will take that as an admission from you that Dan and his crew royally fvcked it a up and forced us into months of unnecessary hardship.

So up to you now.
Fvck you!
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Re: Perth fvcked

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Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:37 pm
towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:31 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:18 pm
towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:13 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:41 pm
Maybe. But equally possible is that we've overestimated the threat. Scary stuff is always pervasive because it's more interesting.

I suspect Australia has not only overreacted but also has some hypocritical and worrying policies. Mandated medication by the State according to age group is kind of f-cked up shit to be honest. Yeah I get it, extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary measures. But still ... how extraordinary is an eminently survivable virus, symptoms of which for most people vary between non existent to a fever, the average age of death is 82 and is less dangerous to children than a flu?

Don't get me wrong, I know its serious, and Im glad my 74yo mother, who insists on continuing to work in the hospital despite having an auto immune disorder is in Australia and not In Sweden. But its still just not ebola.

"A dress rehearsal for the real thing" was the way one preminent virologist described it. Because pandemics can potentially get a shit load worse than this.
You’re right. It’s not Ebola.
It’s way more contagious for a start! Mandated medication isn’t new - it’s how the world eradicated polio.
I'm not an anti vaxxer obviously (I hope). I'd take any vaccine on offer, even after having had it. But also, it is not as if its polio. Theres a disproportionate amount of money and politics involved.

Its a relatively benign disease considering were talking about forcing rushed medication on an entire population, increased risk of side effects and even death (very rare, I get it, but still) mandated for those over a certain age, in a country where at the same time they're having a circle jerk about how they've eradicated it. To be clear, for most people were talking about something like a cold.

And anyone saying the vaccines weren't rushed is full of horseshit. Of course they were, all of them. Blow a fuse knuckledraggers.
You sound like an anti-vaxxer.
If it’s only a cold why did you mention that you were relieved your mother was in Australia where they don’t have Covid?

And it’s not a cold. You know it’s not like that. It’s killing lots of people despite all of the precautions the world is taking. I’ve fold you that my wife went to hospital twice. 3000 people a day are dying in Brazil. India is getting smashed. It’s more contagious and more deadly than the Spanish Flu.
I believe I stressed several times that its more dangerous than a cold.

The Spanish Flu was more deadly and also more dangerous to younger people. The comparison is flat out wrong.
That’s not what Towny said.
You realise that the R0 number for Covid is higher than for influenza (around double I think off memory). That means it infects people exponentially faster. It only kills 1/10th as many who catch it but exponentially more people catch it so the sum of total deaths will be higher.
In practice 1/3rd of the world caught Spanish flu so Covid won’t kill as many.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Farva »

towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:39 pm
Farva wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:21 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:37 am
Farva wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:17 pm Well the simple solution we will take is to remain locked down until we are all vaccinated. That should be end of the year.
Is it though?

I have a friend here who is a nurse. She knows of one case already that had coronavirus, got over it, had antibodies, got vaccinated, and then caught it again.

Although it's a trigger-point, the fact is that it is actually very similar to other common respiratory viruses such as the cold or flu (for the mats out there: no, not identical, yes, more deadly, blah blah). The point is that, as the experts have been predicting from the start, we're probably going to be dealing with this forever, just like the common cold. It's going to become just another one of the coronaviruses in circulation every cold and flu season. Those at risk will probably need to take yearly top-up jabs.

So lockdown until the entire country is vaccinated? Maybe it might work. I have to assume the people pulling the strings know more about it than me. But then again, they are politicians. I hope it works.
Farva wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:46 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:25 pm

"But people are dying" is somewhat of a Karen response, as callous as that might sound.

The fact of the matter is, as previously discussed, we draw these lines on literally everything else from speed limits, to the legality of cigarettes, alcohol and junk food. How many people die of the flu every year? A few thousand or so in Australia? 40 thousand in the US? Including a lot of children and babies. Whatever it is, it's apparently not enough to justify a lockdown.

So yeah ... "people are dying" doesn't really cut the mustard. There's still a line to be drawn somewhere, as we do with literally every other thing. My suggestion is that line is somewhat misplaced.

FWIW, 0.001% of the people in Sweden have died with* coronavirus (* not necessarily "from"). The average age of death is 82 years old with 4 co-morbidity factors. How many weeks does such a person have left anyway?

(yes, coronavirus is more dangerous than the flu, if that's your kneejerk response, you've missed the point).
Im not sure I agree with you.
People are dying in their 10s of thousands. Covid is up there with heart disease as the leading cause of death globally. 3m people have died in the last 12 months and that is widely viewed as a gross underestimate by experts. And it’s accelerating. And that’s with significant mitigation strategies in place like lockdowns. It’s the worst pandemic since 1919.
Locking the Australian border has potentially saved 50,000 people’s lives (assuming 0.2% death rate as seen through Europe, it might be higher).
Sure there might be comirbidities, but that’s lazy. Does HIV not kill anyone? My mother died when I was 12 from leukaemia. Well she didn’t. She died from an infection caused by a stomach ulcer. She just happened to have leukaemia at the time. Does that mean leukaemia is fine?
A colleague of mine in Manila died last week from Covid. He was late 30s. He had comorbidities. They were that he was overweight and had been breathing Manila air for 30 something years. That is barely unusual. He certainly had more than a few weeks left like you say. He should have lived for decades to come.
This study suggests that we have lost over 20m years of life due to Covid -https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3. Given that was published months ago it means we have probably seen on average people dying 10 years earlier, not a few weeks.
You may not think it but your words are talking down the threat of Covid. It’s deadly and it’s incredibly dangerous. We haven’t seen anything this bad in a hundred years. Keeping Covid out is a huge achievement and one that we should be willing to significantly sacrifice to maintain.
You make excellent points.

I think you're somewhat missing my point though. Assuming all you say is true, it does not then follow that either the response is proportional to the threat or that it's realistic in the long run.

You make a good case the coronavirus is dangerous and best avoided. Yes, and so are car accidents. But I'm not about banning people from driving or enforcing ludicrously slow speed limits because "even one death is too many". And nor is anyone else if they're being honest with themselves.
First point links to your second. We know that vaccines are not 100%. No vaccine is. It will reduce the risk of getting ill and reduce the likelihood you will spread the virus. Then we can make a decision on the risk profile.

The point I was trying to make is that a risk assessment on Covid is different to a risk assessment on car accidents. We have control measures in place that reduce the risk of car accidents. There are speed limits, crumple zones, seat belts, laws against drink driving, stop signs, etc. and from that maybe 1000 people die a year.
Covid will kill 50 times that. It’s a completely different assessment. If only a few thousand people were to die from Covid we might not be too worried. It’s a tragedy for that individual and their family but from a risk assessment very different. The flu kills a few thousand every year and we are OK with that. Covid is an order of magnitude worse. We have nothing like that. You can do calculations based on value of people’s lives (I think the US considers a life worth $10m for instance). From that you can make an objective assessment.
A few million die each year from the flu and nothing is done.
I think you need more than this. I think Australia has chosen the right path but this is based on gut feeling. If you want to justify action on a cost/benefit analysis I think you’re going to come up against some uncomfortable questions.

For example:
- why are cars allowed to travel over 50km on freeways?
- why are people allowed to ski on snow without a helmet?

I don’t suggest we adopt either of these hypotheticals but that’s based on gut feeling.

Also, in countries that don’t have lockdown there are control measures in place for Covid. Every business in Sweden has a sign on the door that states the limit (based on 1 for every 10m squared). Restaurants aren’t allowed to serve booze after 8pm and must be shut at 8.30pm. There are lots of control measures in place. People wear masks in areas where people are. Kids must be dropped off outside at school and nursery. In many ways it’s comparable to the road safety initiatives. I don’t agree with Mog but he’s making fair points that aren’t being addressed.

With every decision there are tradeoffs. Those blowing up at Mog should think about the tradeoffs they make every day. When we drive a car we increase the risk that someone else will die on the roads. We could make our homes safer for our families but we stop short of doing everything we can because it’s not convenient and/or aesthetically pleasing. We watch sport even though we saw a cricket ball kill a bloke and are well aware that people have died due to rugby tackles.

We accept trade offs, that involve fatal risks, because of entertainment or convenience, so I think it’s a bit rich to condemn people purely on their slightly different perspective of whether a particular trade-off is acceptable.
A bad flu year will kill 500k, so Covid is an order of magnitude worse.
I also appreciate that many other countries are not in positions to lockdown like Aus has. And I agree they are taking measures to stop the spread. These have varying levels of success.
Going back to the original point was that Mog lamented the fact that Perth was going for elimination and hence had gone into lockdown over 1 case. My position is that is a well measured strategy given the situation Australia is in and the risk level created by the mortality and contagious nature of Covid.
It’s an appropriate response to the danger Covid poses.

And I also flagged that the virus is far more dangerous than the flu, by orders of magnitude. There were comments made that it’s not Ebola. It’s worse. The mortality rate is nowhere near as high but Ebola is nowhere near as contagious. We can stop it. This thing is not. The last (and worst) Ebola pandemic killed maybe 1000 or so people. Covid does multiples of that each day.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by fonzeee »

The most conservative estimates for Spanish flu deaths are just under 20 million, and obviously the world was far less populated then, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

(And R is not some exact thing, this is a lengthy read if anyone's interested but basically it's contextual and necessarily a product of conjecture, not some objective natural property of a disease that carries across all situations. I think you could make a reasonable argument that the world of 2020 facilitates a higher R than the world of 1918)
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Farva »

fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:36 am The most conservative estimates for Spanish flu deaths are just under 20 million, and obviously the world was far less populated then, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

(And R is not some exact thing, this is a lengthy read if anyone's interested but basically it's contextual and necessarily a product of conjecture, not some objective natural property of a disease that carries across all situations. I think you could make a reasonable argument that the world of 2020 facilitates a higher R than the world of 1918)
Sure.
But only looking at a virus based on its mortality doesn’t give a decent assessment of its danger. No doubt the Spanish flu killed more than Covid will, when considering population sizes.
But when looking at an appropriate risk based response against the danger, the virulent nature needs to be considered. Covid is far more contagious than the Spanish flu. And yes the interconnected world plays into that.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Clogs »

Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:31 am
Clogs wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:29 am Not perfect, just better. They were fvcking hopeless. Pen and paper tracking etc. You want to prove me wrong? I dare you. You can prove the hotel quarantine scam was a well managed system if you can tell me who from the Vixtorian government authorised and signed the deal. I fvcking triple dare you. And if you can't, then I will take that as an admission from you that Dan and his crew royally fvcked it a up and forced us into months of unnecessary hardship.

So up to you now.
Fvck you!
:lol:
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by fonzeee »

Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:46 am
fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:36 am The most conservative estimates for Spanish flu deaths are just under 20 million, and obviously the world was far less populated then, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

(And R is not some exact thing, this is a lengthy read if anyone's interested but basically it's contextual and necessarily a product of conjecture, not some objective natural property of a disease that carries across all situations. I think you could make a reasonable argument that the world of 2020 facilitates a higher R than the world of 1918)
Sure.
But only looking at a virus based on its mortality doesn’t give a decent assessment of its danger. No doubt the Spanish flu killed more than Covid will, when considering population sizes.
But when looking at an appropriate risk based response against the danger, the virulent nature needs to be considered. Covid is far more contagious than the Spanish flu. And yes the interconnected world plays into that.
I was just rejecting the idea this is anywhere near as bad, though I don't see how you could conclude it's inherently "far more contagious" than the Spanish flu, even the R estimates aren't that far off if we're going with that measurement (2.2 vs 1.8).

Regardless, even though I think the way most of the West responded was mostly pointless and stupid, I actually think Australia's (and NZ's) strategy makes total sense for them.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Farva »

I thought Covid was closer to 3 compared to the 1.8 or so of Spanish flu. But it’s bloody hard to pick given it changes all the time.
Our lockdowns, mask wearing, etc has done a lot to lower that R0 though. I think it’s below 1 in most of the vaccinated world. If it hit Australia properly without a lockdown estimates I’ve seen have it as high as 5.

I am very pleased to not be in 1919 facing something that is quite deadly for people in my age group.
Where I was going was the response to Covid. Mpg rightly said it needs to be a risk based approach. Covid in unvaccinated population with no social distancing measures is far higher than the flu (which we don’t do anything for anyway) or even the killer Spanish flu.
Covid has a higher R0, be it 2.2 or 3 or even 5. Our response needs to consider that as well as mortality. The difference between 1.8 and 2.2 after 10 generations is 10 fold incidentally (well not quite, 7.5 times more). It matters.
As such arguing purely from a mortality perspective a smog did for me doesn’t work.

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nou ... ion-number
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Pat the Ex Mat »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:46 pm
Okay well that's three useless nerds I couldn't give a shit about. Anyone more?
And what do you do for coin, nerdy boy? :lol:
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Sefton »

fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:36 am The most conservative estimates for Spanish flu deaths are just under 20 million, and obviously the world was far less populated then, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

(And R is not some exact thing, this is a lengthy read if anyone's interested but basically it's contextual and necessarily a product of conjecture, not some objective natural property of a disease that carries across all situations. I think you could make a reasonable argument that the world of 2020 facilitates a higher R than the world of 1918)
I don’t think you could, there was a World War on you if it has escaped your memory.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by RandomNavigat0r »

towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:41 pm I’m off to the gym. Suck it Perth losers!!
I'll just use the one in my home, suck it you poor cu:nt
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by RandomNavigat0r »

Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:39 pm
towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:11 pm
Anonymous 1 wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:09 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:39 am
shanky wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:24 am Well, if it’s any help, I think you’re an idiot.
:( And I thought we were friends these days.
If it's any help I think you're a useful idiot
No one cares what you think.
I think you're an idiot
I think you are correct
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by RandomNavigat0r »

Ali's Choice wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:51 pm
Clogs wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:36 pm
Ali's Choice wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:31 pm So Perth is in the midst of a 3 day lockdown. I presume that our resident anti-lockdown troll Clogs has already demanded that Mark McGowan be publicly buggered and then forced to call a snap election?
Truly dumb post. I am 100% supportive of the go hard go early strategy. I was even scathing of Gladys for failing to do so in NSW. You need some new material.
So you've completely changed your tune from last year, where you spent your entire time on this forum attacking Dan Andrews for implementing a lockdown? We all remember this Clogs, it was only months ago. We all remember you tearfully demanding that elderly Victorians be sacrificed to the virus so businesses could make much more profit.
Well I don't agree with Clogs on most things but he is damn right when he calls Dan Andrews a total Fu:cking moron. What is it with labour and these clowns
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by towny »

Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:16 am
towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:39 pm
Farva wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:21 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:37 am
Farva wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:17 pm Well the simple solution we will take is to remain locked down until we are all vaccinated. That should be end of the year.
Is it though?

I have a friend here who is a nurse. She knows of one case already that had coronavirus, got over it, had antibodies, got vaccinated, and then caught it again.

Although it's a trigger-point, the fact is that it is actually very similar to other common respiratory viruses such as the cold or flu (for the mats out there: no, not identical, yes, more deadly, blah blah). The point is that, as the experts have been predicting from the start, we're probably going to be dealing with this forever, just like the common cold. It's going to become just another one of the coronaviruses in circulation every cold and flu season. Those at risk will probably need to take yearly top-up jabs.

So lockdown until the entire country is vaccinated? Maybe it might work. I have to assume the people pulling the strings know more about it than me. But then again, they are politicians. I hope it works.
Farva wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:46 pm
Im not sure I agree with you.
People are dying in their 10s of thousands. Covid is up there with heart disease as the leading cause of death globally. 3m people have died in the last 12 months and that is widely viewed as a gross underestimate by experts. And it’s accelerating. And that’s with significant mitigation strategies in place like lockdowns. It’s the worst pandemic since 1919.
Locking the Australian border has potentially saved 50,000 people’s lives (assuming 0.2% death rate as seen through Europe, it might be higher).
Sure there might be comirbidities, but that’s lazy. Does HIV not kill anyone? My mother died when I was 12 from leukaemia. Well she didn’t. She died from an infection caused by a stomach ulcer. She just happened to have leukaemia at the time. Does that mean leukaemia is fine?
A colleague of mine in Manila died last week from Covid. He was late 30s. He had comorbidities. They were that he was overweight and had been breathing Manila air for 30 something years. That is barely unusual. He certainly had more than a few weeks left like you say. He should have lived for decades to come.
This study suggests that we have lost over 20m years of life due to Covid -https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3. Given that was published months ago it means we have probably seen on average people dying 10 years earlier, not a few weeks.
You may not think it but your words are talking down the threat of Covid. It’s deadly and it’s incredibly dangerous. We haven’t seen anything this bad in a hundred years. Keeping Covid out is a huge achievement and one that we should be willing to significantly sacrifice to maintain.
You make excellent points.

I think you're somewhat missing my point though. Assuming all you say is true, it does not then follow that either the response is proportional to the threat or that it's realistic in the long run.

You make a good case the coronavirus is dangerous and best avoided. Yes, and so are car accidents. But I'm not about banning people from driving or enforcing ludicrously slow speed limits because "even one death is too many". And nor is anyone else if they're being honest with themselves.
First point links to your second. We know that vaccines are not 100%. No vaccine is. It will reduce the risk of getting ill and reduce the likelihood you will spread the virus. Then we can make a decision on the risk profile.

The point I was trying to make is that a risk assessment on Covid is different to a risk assessment on car accidents. We have control measures in place that reduce the risk of car accidents. There are speed limits, crumple zones, seat belts, laws against drink driving, stop signs, etc. and from that maybe 1000 people die a year.
Covid will kill 50 times that. It’s a completely different assessment. If only a few thousand people were to die from Covid we might not be too worried. It’s a tragedy for that individual and their family but from a risk assessment very different. The flu kills a few thousand every year and we are OK with that. Covid is an order of magnitude worse. We have nothing like that. You can do calculations based on value of people’s lives (I think the US considers a life worth $10m for instance). From that you can make an objective assessment.
A few million die each year from the flu and nothing is done.
I think you need more than this. I think Australia has chosen the right path but this is based on gut feeling. If you want to justify action on a cost/benefit analysis I think you’re going to come up against some uncomfortable questions.

For example:
- why are cars allowed to travel over 50km on freeways?
- why are people allowed to ski on snow without a helmet?

I don’t suggest we adopt either of these hypotheticals but that’s based on gut feeling.

Also, in countries that don’t have lockdown there are control measures in place for Covid. Every business in Sweden has a sign on the door that states the limit (based on 1 for every 10m squared). Restaurants aren’t allowed to serve booze after 8pm and must be shut at 8.30pm. There are lots of control measures in place. People wear masks in areas where people are. Kids must be dropped off outside at school and nursery. In many ways it’s comparable to the road safety initiatives. I don’t agree with Mog but he’s making fair points that aren’t being addressed.

With every decision there are tradeoffs. Those blowing up at Mog should think about the tradeoffs they make every day. When we drive a car we increase the risk that someone else will die on the roads. We could make our homes safer for our families but we stop short of doing everything we can because it’s not convenient and/or aesthetically pleasing. We watch sport even though we saw a cricket ball kill a bloke and are well aware that people have died due to rugby tackles.

We accept trade offs, that involve fatal risks, because of entertainment or convenience, so I think it’s a bit rich to condemn people purely on their slightly different perspective of whether a particular trade-off is acceptable.
A bad flu year will kill 500k, so Covid is an order of magnitude worse.
I also appreciate that many other countries are not in positions to lockdown like Aus has. And I agree they are taking measures to stop the spread. These have varying levels of success.
Going back to the original point was that Mog lamented the fact that Perth was going for elimination and hence had gone into lockdown over 1 case. My position is that is a well measured strategy given the situation Australia is in and the risk level created by the mortality and contagious nature of Covid.
It’s an appropriate response to the danger Covid poses.

And I also flagged that the virus is far more dangerous than the flu, by orders of magnitude. There were comments made that it’s not Ebola. It’s worse. The mortality rate is nowhere near as high but Ebola is nowhere near as contagious. We can stop it. This thing is not. The last (and worst) Ebola pandemic killed maybe 1000 or so people. Covid does multiples of that each day.
I agree with every word of this post. It’s the cost-benefit stuff I didn’t agree with. There is a difference between Covid and driving or the flu in my opinion, but trying to define where that line lies is folly. And I can appreciate that people will have different perspectives over how much society should pay per life.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by towny »

RandomNavigat0r wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:31 am
towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:41 pm I’m off to the gym. Suck it Perth losers!!
I'll just use the one in my home, suck it you poor cu:nt
:lol:
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by RandomNavigat0r »

Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:14 am
Clogs wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:09 am Months and months of painful lockdown due to the "no one knows who signed" bungled hotel quarantine scam vs go hard and go early to prevent months and months of lockdown. Two very different things. Perhaps it is too nuanced for you?
You were passionately ant-lockdown. You were literally arguing that people under 50 should be free from all restrictions and free to do whatever they wanted. They were your words. You were hysterical.

PS - short lockdowns only work when there are small numbers of cases. That wasn't the case in Victoria, and you know this.
Why shouldn't under 50 do whatever they like, it doesn't do shit to 99.** Percent of people, fudge the older generation, we want their McMansions and inheritance.. now we are stuck paying out generations worth of debt to keep these cnuts alive when they are dieing anyway.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by towny »

fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 2:34 am
Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:46 am
fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:36 am The most conservative estimates for Spanish flu deaths are just under 20 million, and obviously the world was far less populated then, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

(And R is not some exact thing, this is a lengthy read if anyone's interested but basically it's contextual and necessarily a product of conjecture, not some objective natural property of a disease that carries across all situations. I think you could make a reasonable argument that the world of 2020 facilitates a higher R than the world of 1918)
Sure.
But only looking at a virus based on its mortality doesn’t give a decent assessment of its danger. No doubt the Spanish flu killed more than Covid will, when considering population sizes.
But when looking at an appropriate risk based response against the danger, the virulent nature needs to be considered. Covid is far more contagious than the Spanish flu. And yes the interconnected world plays into that.
I was just rejecting the idea this is anywhere near as bad, though I don't see how you could conclude it's inherently "far more contagious" than the Spanish flu, even the R estimates aren't that far off if we're going with that measurement (2.2 vs 1.8).

Regardless, even though I think the way most of the West responded was mostly pointless and stupid, I actually think Australia's (and NZ's) strategy makes total sense for them.
Covid is worse. They know this because of they know what the Spanish flu was a H1N1 virus and we understand it well. Spanish Flu had higher fatality but that’s because it was 100 years ago and things sucked back then. The first months of Covid saw similar fatality rates; however modern medicine adapted quickly and the internet allowed doctors around the world to learn from each other - something that wasn’t possible in the days of horse and cart.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by towny »

Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:09 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:37 pm
towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:31 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:18 pm
towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:13 pm

You’re right. It’s not Ebola.
It’s way more contagious for a start! Mandated medication isn’t new - it’s how the world eradicated polio.
I'm not an anti vaxxer obviously (I hope). I'd take any vaccine on offer, even after having had it. But also, it is not as if its polio. Theres a disproportionate amount of money and politics involved.

Its a relatively benign disease considering were talking about forcing rushed medication on an entire population, increased risk of side effects and even death (very rare, I get it, but still) mandated for those over a certain age, in a country where at the same time they're having a circle jerk about how they've eradicated it. To be clear, for most people were talking about something like a cold.

And anyone saying the vaccines weren't rushed is full of horseshit. Of course they were, all of them. Blow a fuse knuckledraggers.
You sound like an anti-vaxxer.
If it’s only a cold why did you mention that you were relieved your mother was in Australia where they don’t have Covid?

And it’s not a cold. You know it’s not like that. It’s killing lots of people despite all of the precautions the world is taking. I’ve fold you that my wife went to hospital twice. 3000 people a day are dying in Brazil. India is getting smashed. It’s more contagious and more deadly than the Spanish Flu.
I believe I stressed several times that its more dangerous than a cold.

The Spanish Flu was more deadly and also more dangerous to younger people. The comparison is flat out wrong.
That’s not what Towny said.
You realise that the R0 number for Covid is higher than for influenza (around double I think off memory). That means it infects people exponentially faster. It only kills 1/10th as many who catch it but exponentially more people catch it so the sum of total deaths will be higher.
In practice 1/3rd of the world caught Spanish flu so Covid won’t kill as many.
+1

Shit!

I wish I saw this before I wrote my own ramble.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Farva »

towny wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:36 am
I agree with every word of this post. It’s the cost-benefit stuff I didn’t agree with. There is a difference between Covid and driving or the flu in my opinion, but trying to define where that line lies is folly. And I can appreciate that people will have different perspectives over how much society should pay per life.
Whether you think it or not you are doing a cost benefit analysis. It’s just that the cost is incredibly high. The flu kills 500k a year without any real effort to slow it down. Car accidents kill 1.5m per year.
Covid would kill in the order of 20m (0.25% of the population of the world, in line with what we are seeing in Europe) if we don’t do anything to slow it. That is just a completely different kettle of fish. The costs are so much higher than car accidents or the flu that it’s not worth comparing.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Farva »

RandomNavigat0r wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:39 am
Ali's Choice wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:14 am
Clogs wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:09 am Months and months of painful lockdown due to the "no one knows who signed" bungled hotel quarantine scam vs go hard and go early to prevent months and months of lockdown. Two very different things. Perhaps it is too nuanced for you?
You were passionately ant-lockdown. You were literally arguing that people under 50 should be free from all restrictions and free to do whatever they wanted. They were your words. You were hysterical.

PS - short lockdowns only work when there are small numbers of cases. That wasn't the case in Victoria, and you know this.
Why shouldn't under 50 do whatever they like, it doesn't do shit to 99.** Percent of people, fudge the older generation, we want their McMansions and inheritance.. now we are stuck paying out generations worth of debt to keep these cnuts alive when they are dieing anyway.
Luckily most of us don’t think like that.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by towny »

Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:04 am
towny wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:36 am
I agree with every word of this post. It’s the cost-benefit stuff I didn’t agree with. There is a difference between Covid and driving or the flu in my opinion, but trying to define where that line lies is folly. And I can appreciate that people will have different perspectives over how much society should pay per life.
Whether you think it or not you are doing a cost benefit analysis. It’s just that the cost is incredibly high. The flu kills 500k a year without any real effort to slow it down. Car accidents kill 1.5m per year.
Covid would kill in the order of 20m (0.25% of the population of the world, in line with what we are seeing in Europe) if we don’t do anything to slow it. That is just a completely different kettle of fish. The costs are so much higher than car accidents or the flu that it’s not worth comparing.
Okay.... let’s get into it!

What other costs are involved? Money is good, but let’s throw in all the costs:
- child sexual assaults during lock down are way up as they knew they would be
- domestic violence is way up
- divorce rates have increased
- children’s education outcomes are down as they knew they would be
- mental health of many people deteriorated
- tens of thousand of Australian citizens have been left stranded

We could go on, but it’s all murky and we don’t have sufficient data (or expertise in my case).

It’s all about trade-offs and life/$ is just one factor. There’s a point where the price isn’t worth it, but I don’t know where that lies and don’t believe anyone can say with confidence that they do.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by fonzeee »

Sefton wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:08 am
fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:36 am The most conservative estimates for Spanish flu deaths are just under 20 million, and obviously the world was far less populated then, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

(And R is not some exact thing, this is a lengthy read if anyone's interested but basically it's contextual and necessarily a product of conjecture, not some objective natural property of a disease that carries across all situations. I think you could make a reasonable argument that the world of 2020 facilitates a higher R than the world of 1918)
I don’t think you could, there was a World War on you if it has escaped your memory.
Right, it would be totally unreasonable to argue that there's anything about modern life that might possibly equal or surpass this effect. Not much has changed since then.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Farva »

towny wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:14 am
Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:04 am
towny wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:36 am
I agree with every word of this post. It’s the cost-benefit stuff I didn’t agree with. There is a difference between Covid and driving or the flu in my opinion, but trying to define where that line lies is folly. And I can appreciate that people will have different perspectives over how much society should pay per life.
Whether you think it or not you are doing a cost benefit analysis. It’s just that the cost is incredibly high. The flu kills 500k a year without any real effort to slow it down. Car accidents kill 1.5m per year.
Covid would kill in the order of 20m (0.25% of the population of the world, in line with what we are seeing in Europe) if we don’t do anything to slow it. That is just a completely different kettle of fish. The costs are so much higher than car accidents or the flu that it’s not worth comparing.
Okay.... let’s get into it!

What other costs are involved? Money is good, but let’s throw in all the costs:
- child sexual assaults during lock down are way up as they knew they would be
- domestic violence is way up
- divorce rates have increased
- children’s education outcomes are down as they knew they would be
- mental health of many people deteriorated
- tens of thousand of Australian citizens have been left stranded

We could go on, but it’s all murky and we don’t have sufficient data (or expertise in my case).

It’s all about trade-offs and life/$ is just one factor. There’s a point where the price isn’t worth it, but I don’t know where that lies and don’t believe anyone can say with confidence that they do.
And the benefits, well for me anyway...

Positive: The change to a more flexible workplace has dramatically accelerated and that is really good for me, I’m in the office a few days a week and at home for the rest. I love it.
Positive: The money that the government has poured into the economy to manage the massive dip in productivity has flowed into assets. This means a drastic rise in prices in things like the share market and property. While those that haven’t got in the game yet are going to struggle to get in, I’m loving it as I have plenty invested in property and shares and have made a fortune this year. While none of us are as rich as spine, I’ve done well this year.
Positive: Covid is effectively eliminated here and I can snuggly dictate to others from around the world.

You are completely right, a proper cost benefit analysis is impossible. That won’t stop us from doing it subconsciously.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by towny »

Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:48 am
towny wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:14 am
Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:04 am
towny wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:36 am
I agree with every word of this post. It’s the cost-benefit stuff I didn’t agree with. There is a difference between Covid and driving or the flu in my opinion, but trying to define where that line lies is folly. And I can appreciate that people will have different perspectives over how much society should pay per life.
Whether you think it or not you are doing a cost benefit analysis. It’s just that the cost is incredibly high. The flu kills 500k a year without any real effort to slow it down. Car accidents kill 1.5m per year.
Covid would kill in the order of 20m (0.25% of the population of the world, in line with what we are seeing in Europe) if we don’t do anything to slow it. That is just a completely different kettle of fish. The costs are so much higher than car accidents or the flu that it’s not worth comparing.
Okay.... let’s get into it!

What other costs are involved? Money is good, but let’s throw in all the costs:
- child sexual assaults during lock down are way up as they knew they would be
- domestic violence is way up
- divorce rates have increased
- children’s education outcomes are down as they knew they would be
- mental health of many people deteriorated
- tens of thousand of Australian citizens have been left stranded

We could go on, but it’s all murky and we don’t have sufficient data (or expertise in my case).

It’s all about trade-offs and life/$ is just one factor. There’s a point where the price isn’t worth it, but I don’t know where that lies and don’t believe anyone can say with confidence that they do.
And the benefits, well for me anyway...

Positive: The change to a more flexible workplace has dramatically accelerated and that is really good for me, I’m in the office a few days a week and at home for the rest. I love it.
Positive: The money that the government has poured into the economy to manage the massive dip in productivity has flowed into assets. This means a drastic rise in prices in things like the share market and property. While those that haven’t got in the game yet are going to struggle to get in, I’m loving it as I have plenty invested in property and shares and have made a fortune this year. While none of us are as rich as spine, I’ve done well this year.
Positive: Covid is effectively eliminated here and I can snuggly dictate to others from around the world.

You are completely right, a proper cost benefit analysis is impossible. That won’t stop us from doing it subconsciously.
As a benefit you’ve listed ‘the rich get richer’? How are the poor people going? How are the other health outcomes for the population tracking?

You’re right - we can’t measure these things, but it’s why i don’t feel it’s right to shout down people who question whether the price is worth it. I’m not saying that you were shouting anyone down fwiw.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Farva »

Oh it’s completely shithouse for the poor. Particularly the third world. Was talking to a colleague, an expat I worked with in the Philippines who is now back in Oz too, about that the other day. The Philippines is getting smashed at the moment. They won’t see a vaccine for years. It will set them back a decade. It’s complete shambles and I feel for the people there. They have just lost all of the income gains they have made and are starting down decades of poverty.

My comments were tongue in cheek.

However, I’m firmly in the camp of manage the virus and the rest of things will manage themselves.
Don’t forget most countries (not Sweden) that have opted not for elimination are doing lockdowns when things get out of control to allow their health facilities to catch up. These lockdowns are far in excess of what Australia is doing. They will experience all of the issues you list without the benefit of no virus. Fwiw I think Sweden have done well. But I don’t think many other societies could replicate what they have done. The US in particular is far too centred on not being told what to do, to actually be responsible like the Swedish.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Sefton »

fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:44 am
Sefton wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:08 am
fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:36 am The most conservative estimates for Spanish flu deaths are just under 20 million, and obviously the world was far less populated then, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

(And R is not some exact thing, this is a lengthy read if anyone's interested but basically it's contextual and necessarily a product of conjecture, not some objective natural property of a disease that carries across all situations. I think you could make a reasonable argument that the world of 2020 facilitates a higher R than the world of 1918)
I don’t think you could, there was a World War on you if it has escaped your memory.
Right, it would be totally unreasonable to argue that there's anything about modern life that might possibly equal or surpass this effect. Not much has changed since then.
Of course it has changed and in comparison to any other period you would be correct but it’s a f**king world war, there are millions moving around, armies, navies, huge civilian migrations.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by towny »

@farva Disagree with one thing in your post.

I don’t think the Swedes have done well at all except in one area. They’ve kept the schools open, and interestingly, the kids don’t seem to be getting it or giving it to adults.

My wife and I had it but our kids didn’t get symptoms. Lots of the parents from the nursery and primary school have had it but few of the kids. The data I’ve seen shows that teachers have lower infection rates than the general population - the infection rate grew as the kids they taught got older - which is crazy when you think about it.

What Sweden can do is leverage its telecommunications system - good broadband here so working from home is easy. My company told us to go into work and just grab computers and chairs and set up the home for the long haul.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Mog The Almighty »

Pat the Ex Mat wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:02 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:46 pm
Okay well that's three useless nerds I couldn't give a shit about. Anyone more?
And what do you do for coin, nerdy boy? :lol:
I am one of those cool, hip nerds. Like a rugged, outdoorsy woodsman that can also program computers type nerd. I'm not the kind that spends days in an unshowered, dishevelled state playing Warcraft and snacking on Doritto crumbs caught in their chest hair while guzzling Pepsi like most of you nerds.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by towny »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:18 am
Pat the Ex Mat wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:02 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:46 pm
Okay well that's three useless nerds I couldn't give a shit about. Anyone more?
And what do you do for coin, nerdy boy? :lol:
I am one of those cool, hip nerds. Like a rugged, outdoorsy woodsman that can also program computers type nerd. I'm not the kind that spends days in an unshowered, dishevelled state playing Warcraft and snacking on Doritto crumbs caught in their chest hair while guzzling Pepsi like most of you nerds.
:x

I do NOT drink Pepsi.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Pat the Ex Mat »

towny wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:16 am My company told us to go into work and just grab computers and chairs and set up the home for the long haul.
This is exactly what most Aussie companies did

Granted, thanks to the LNP, it's not too tier Broadband, but it's mostly fit for purpose for this.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Pat the Ex Mat »

Mog The Almighty wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:18 am
Pat the Ex Mat wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:02 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:46 pm
Okay well that's three useless nerds I couldn't give a shit about. Anyone more?
And what do you do for coin, nerdy boy? :lol:
I am one of those cool, hip nerds. Like a rugged, outdoorsy woodsman that can also program computers type nerd. I'm not the kind that spends days in an unshowered, dishevelled state playing Warcraft and snacking on Doritto crumbs caught in their chest hair while guzzling Pepsi like most of you nerds.
Keep convincing yourself if that.

Developers :blush: :lol:
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Mog The Almighty »

Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:09 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:37 pm
towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:31 pm
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:18 pm
towny wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:13 pm

You’re right. It’s not Ebola.
It’s way more contagious for a start! Mandated medication isn’t new - it’s how the world eradicated polio.
I'm not an anti vaxxer obviously (I hope). I'd take any vaccine on offer, even after having had it. But also, it is not as if its polio. Theres a disproportionate amount of money and politics involved.

Its a relatively benign disease considering were talking about forcing rushed medication on an entire population, increased risk of side effects and even death (very rare, I get it, but still) mandated for those over a certain age, in a country where at the same time they're having a circle jerk about how they've eradicated it. To be clear, for most people were talking about something like a cold.

And anyone saying the vaccines weren't rushed is full of horseshit. Of course they were, all of them. Blow a fuse knuckledraggers.
You sound like an anti-vaxxer.
If it’s only a cold why did you mention that you were relieved your mother was in Australia where they don’t have Covid?

And it’s not a cold. You know it’s not like that. It’s killing lots of people despite all of the precautions the world is taking. I’ve fold you that my wife went to hospital twice. 3000 people a day are dying in Brazil. India is getting smashed. It’s more contagious and more deadly than the Spanish Flu.
I believe I stressed several times that its more dangerous than a cold.

The Spanish Flu was more deadly and also more dangerous to younger people. The comparison is flat out wrong.
That’s not what Towny said.
You realise that the R0 number for Covid is higher than for influenza (around double I think off memory). That means it infects people exponentially faster. It only kills 1/10th as many who catch it but exponentially more people catch it so the sum of total deaths will be higher.
In practice 1/3rd of the world caught Spanish flu so Covid won’t kill as many.
Fair enough.

Look, I'm not and have never argued that we should take covid lightly or that it's nothing to worry about. Its obviously a global shitshow.

What I am doing is being skeptical about some of the measures (and media reporting) when it comes to balanace and long term efficacy. And maybe I'm wrong to be, who knows? Nobody yet. We won't know for a very long time yet.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by fonzeee »

Sefton wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:12 am
fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:44 am
Sefton wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:08 am
fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:36 am The most conservative estimates for Spanish flu deaths are just under 20 million, and obviously the world was far less populated then, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

(And R is not some exact thing, this is a lengthy read if anyone's interested but basically it's contextual and necessarily a product of conjecture, not some objective natural property of a disease that carries across all situations. I think you could make a reasonable argument that the world of 2020 facilitates a higher R than the world of 1918)
I don’t think you could, there was a World War on you if it has escaped your memory.
Right, it would be totally unreasonable to argue that there's anything about modern life that might possibly equal or surpass this effect. Not much has changed since then.
Of course it has changed and in comparison to any other period you would be correct but it’s a f**king world war, there are millions moving around, armies, navies, huge civilian migrations.
I didn't even say definitively that today was more conducive than 1918, just that you could make a reasonable argument on account of much denser and more crowded cities, greater reliance on public transportation, etc. The number of people that moved through Heathrow in 2019 was more than the total number of military personnel mobilized during WWI.

I might be wrong, but so might you. It's hardly ludicrous so quit acting like you've figured it out.
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by Anonymous 1 »

towny wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:20 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:18 am
Pat the Ex Mat wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:02 am
Mog The Almighty wrote: Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:46 pm
Okay well that's three useless nerds I couldn't give a shit about. Anyone more?
And what do you do for coin, nerdy boy? :lol:
I am one of those cool, hip nerds. Like a rugged, outdoorsy woodsman that can also program computers type nerd. I'm not the kind that spends days in an unshowered, dishevelled state playing Warcraft and snacking on Doritto crumbs caught in their chest hair while guzzling Pepsi like most of you nerds.
:x

I do NOT drink Pepsi.
Pepsi or Fanta when you order pizza I the uk
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Re: Perth fvcked

Post by fonzeee »

towny wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:49 am
fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 2:34 am
Farva wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:46 am
fonzeee wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:36 am The most conservative estimates for Spanish flu deaths are just under 20 million, and obviously the world was far less populated then, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

(And R is not some exact thing, this is a lengthy read if anyone's interested but basically it's contextual and necessarily a product of conjecture, not some objective natural property of a disease that carries across all situations. I think you could make a reasonable argument that the world of 2020 facilitates a higher R than the world of 1918)
Sure.
But only looking at a virus based on its mortality doesn’t give a decent assessment of its danger. No doubt the Spanish flu killed more than Covid will, when considering population sizes.
But when looking at an appropriate risk based response against the danger, the virulent nature needs to be considered. Covid is far more contagious than the Spanish flu. And yes the interconnected world plays into that.
I was just rejecting the idea this is anywhere near as bad, though I don't see how you could conclude it's inherently "far more contagious" than the Spanish flu, even the R estimates aren't that far off if we're going with that measurement (2.2 vs 1.8).

Regardless, even though I think the way most of the West responded was mostly pointless and stupid, I actually think Australia's (and NZ's) strategy makes total sense for them.
Covid is worse. They know this because of they know what the Spanish flu was a H1N1 virus and we understand it well. Spanish Flu had higher fatality but that’s because it was 100 years ago and things sucked back then. The first months of Covid saw similar fatality rates; however modern medicine adapted quickly and the internet allowed doctors around the world to learn from each other - something that wasn’t possible in the days of horse and cart.
Well we've since developed an immunity/resistance to it and its offshoots, so it's hard to say it's less dangerous because it's like something we now shrug off. Your point about inferior medical knowledge back then is taken though.

I'm sorry but except for perhaps in those parts of Italy when every other person is a pensioner, there was nowhere where you were seeing anything near 2.5% fatality, even in the early days. And yes, the fact the victims were predominantly younger and in the prime of their lives in the Spanish flu epidemic does make it worse (or rather is a point for it being worse), hard as it is for some to accept that. Again, you're right about medical advances, but even with that it's hard to imagine that alone accounts for the average age of death being north of 80.

IMO the big thing about this is that it's infecting and killing a lot of people who, even a few decades ago, wouldn't have made it to that age anyway. I read a study saying that covid is producing an effect on American life expectancy tantamount to returning us to the dark, primitive days of...1996.
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