COVID-19... lab or nature?

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Lab or nature

Lab release
48
59%
Natural species jump
27
33%
Gavin Henson
6
7%
 
Total votes: 81

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guy smiley
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COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by guy smiley »

After reading this intense and technically rich article, I'm saying it came from a lab... after being highly sceptical of the conspiracy theory nature of the assertion initially. Oh, that and Trump said it so covfefe, right?

Link here
Nicholas Wade is a science writer, editor, and author who has worked on the staff of Nature, Science, and, for many years, the New York Times....
This is a long article, far too long to reproduce here in full so the mouth breathers can quote it repeatedly. It's full of technical explanations and descriptions that are both rewarding and alarming. It's well worth a read and I heartily recommend it.

Snapshot conclusion...
Neither the natural emergence nor the lab escape hypothesis can yet be ruled out. There is still no direct evidence for either. So no definitive conclusion can be reached.

That said, the available evidence leans more strongly in one direction than the other. Readers will form their own opinion. But it seems to me that proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence.

It’s documented that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were doing gain-of-function experiments designed to make coronaviruses infect human cells and humanized mice. This is exactly the kind of experiment from which a SARS2-like virus could have emerged. The researchers were not vaccinated against the viruses under study, and they were working in the minimal safety conditions of a BSL2 laboratory. So escape of a virus would not be at all surprising. In all of China, the pandemic broke out on the doorstep of the Wuhan institute. The virus was already well adapted to humans, as expected for a virus grown in humanized mice. It possessed an unusual enhancement, a furin cleavage site, which is not possessed by any other known SARS-related beta-coronavirus, and this site included a double arginine codon also unknown among beta-coronaviruses. What more evidence could you want, aside from the presently unobtainable lab records documenting SARS2’s creation?

Proponents of natural emergence have a rather harder story to tell. The plausibility of their case rests on a single surmise, the expected parallel between the emergence of SARS2 and that of SARS1 and MERS. But none of the evidence expected in support of such a parallel history has yet emerged. No one has found the bat population that was the source of SARS2, if indeed it ever infected bats. No intermediate host has presented itself, despite an intensive search by Chinese authorities that included the testing of 80,000 animals. There is no evidence of the virus making multiple independent jumps from its intermediate host to people, as both the SARS1 and MERS viruses did. There is no evidence from hospital surveillance records of the epidemic gathering strength in the population as the virus evolved. There is no explanation of why a natural epidemic should break out in Wuhan and nowhere else. There is no good explanation of how the virus acquired its furin cleavage site, which no other SARS-related beta-coronavirus possesses, nor why the site is composed of human-preferred codons. The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities.
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Muttonbirds
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Muttonbirds »

"Natural emergence" or "Natural species jump" is a bit misleading because it suggests no action by human beings.

I'm reading with the rise of China economically, big money went into the farming of exotic animals for consumption. These animals existed in close proximity to humans in large numbers for the first time in history.

So, species jump is more manufactured than natural.

Not saying it wasn't a lab release as this sounds much better.
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guy smiley
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by guy smiley »

Muttonbirds wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:32 am d'uhhhh I too dumb to read article
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mr bungle
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by mr bungle »

Interesting article that I might not have come across elsewhere. Why I come to PR :thumbup:
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by El Homerino »

I was just thinking about this, what a coincidence. The Chinese Gov cant just be allowed to carry out actions like this with impunity.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by DragsterDriver »

Lab.
bimboman
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by bimboman »

Then the next question is sloppy accident or deliberately planned.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by panamax »

Wade's piece is quite compelling as it takes the time to build the case for both options, and also explores the possibility of it being a perfectly natural virus that would have escped from the lab

what seem completely bonkers if true is the level of seurity he claims the Wuhan lab had when manipulating coronaviruses (level 2 and 3 if memory serves me well), he compares level 2 to the kind of precautions you would get in an american dental cabinet... quite a striking analogy

the conflicts of interest exposed in the piece, as well as the potential dangers of fabricating deadly pathogens for seemingly a very poor risk/reward ratio are definitely to be addressed anyway, regardless of whether the virus came from the lab or not
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by DragsterDriver »

bimboman wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:29 am Then the next question is sloppy accident or deliberately planned.
Is there any truthful account of how badly China was affected?
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Muttonbirds »

guy smiley wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:42 am
Muttonbirds wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:32 am d'uhhhh I too dumb to read article
:? You basically said, don't read the article, read the conclusion. That's what I did.

I can't help it if you get upset when people slightly push back against your Covid lab leak conspiracy theories.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Sefton »

In all of China, the pandemic broke out on the doorstep of the Wuhan institute.
I’ve seen this faulty logic pushed before. The Wuhan Institute is where it is because it researches corona viruses.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Muttonbirds »

So GS and the science writer want us to believe Chinese scientists were actively creating a new Coronavirus specifically dangerous to humans, rather than just researching Coronavirus' to find out better how they worked.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by towny »

guy smiley wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:03 am After reading this intense and technically rich article, I'm saying it came from a lab... after being highly sceptical of the conspiracy theory nature of the assertion initially. Oh, that and Trump said it so covfefe, right?

Link here
Nicholas Wade is a science writer, editor, and author who has worked on the staff of Nature, Science, and, for many years, the New York Times....
This is a long article, far too long to reproduce here in full so the mouth breathers can quote it repeatedly. It's full of technical explanations and descriptions that are both rewarding and alarming. It's well worth a read and I heartily recommend it.

Snapshot conclusion...
Neither the natural emergence nor the lab escape hypothesis can yet be ruled out. There is still no direct evidence for either. So no definitive conclusion can be reached.

That said, the available evidence leans more strongly in one direction than the other. Readers will form their own opinion. But it seems to me that proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence.

It’s documented that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were doing gain-of-function experiments designed to make coronaviruses infect human cells and humanized mice. This is exactly the kind of experiment from which a SARS2-like virus could have emerged. The researchers were not vaccinated against the viruses under study, and they were working in the minimal safety conditions of a BSL2 laboratory. So escape of a virus would not be at all surprising. In all of China, the pandemic broke out on the doorstep of the Wuhan institute. The virus was already well adapted to humans, as expected for a virus grown in humanized mice. It possessed an unusual enhancement, a furin cleavage site, which is not possessed by any other known SARS-related beta-coronavirus, and this site included a double arginine codon also unknown among beta-coronaviruses. What more evidence could you want, aside from the presently unobtainable lab records documenting SARS2’s creation?

Proponents of natural emergence have a rather harder story to tell. The plausibility of their case rests on a single surmise, the expected parallel between the emergence of SARS2 and that of SARS1 and MERS. But none of the evidence expected in support of such a parallel history has yet emerged. No one has found the bat population that was the source of SARS2, if indeed it ever infected bats. No intermediate host has presented itself, despite an intensive search by Chinese authorities that included the testing of 80,000 animals. There is no evidence of the virus making multiple independent jumps from its intermediate host to people, as both the SARS1 and MERS viruses did. There is no evidence from hospital surveillance records of the epidemic gathering strength in the population as the virus evolved. There is no explanation of why a natural epidemic should break out in Wuhan and nowhere else. There is no good explanation of how the virus acquired its furin cleavage site, which no other SARS-related beta-coronavirus possesses, nor why the site is composed of human-preferred codons. The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities.
I’m in the ‘lab’ camp too. But not firmly entrenched - 70/30.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by AND-y »

Is this dozy bait?
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by towny »

mr bungle wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:43 am Interesting article that I might not have come across elsewhere. Why I come to PR :thumbup:
:thumbup:
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by mr bungle »

towny wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:30 am
mr bungle wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:43 am Interesting article that I might not have come across elsewhere. Why I come to PR :thumbup:
:thumbup:
Well I don’t come for the rugby anymore, do I?
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by towny »

mr bungle wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:31 am
towny wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:30 am
mr bungle wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:43 am Interesting article that I might not have come across elsewhere. Why I come to PR :thumbup:
:thumbup:
Well I don’t come for the rugby anymore, do I?
:lol:

Nice!
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by towny »

Muttonbirds wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:27 am So GS and the science writer want us to believe Chinese scientists were actively creating a new Coronavirus specifically dangerous to humans, rather than just researching Coronavirus' to find out better how they worked.
The science writer apparently spoke to experts and seems like a reasonable, rationale dude - what did he say that gave you reason to dismiss him?
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by towny »

Sefton wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:15 am
In all of China, the pandemic broke out on the doorstep of the Wuhan institute.
I’ve seen this faulty logic pushed before. The Wuhan Institute is where it is because it researches corona viruses.
+1
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Muttonbirds »

towny wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:35 am
Muttonbirds wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:27 am So GS and the science writer want us to believe Chinese scientists were actively creating a new Coronavirus specifically dangerous to humans, rather than just researching Coronavirus' to find out better how they worked.
The science writer apparently spoke to experts and seems like a reasonable, rationale dude - what did he say that gave you reason to dismiss him?
That he's implying Wuhan scientists were deliberately developing a dangerous coronavirus targeting humans.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by towny »

DragsterDriver wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:46 am
bimboman wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:29 am Then the next question is sloppy accident or deliberately planned.
Is there any truthful account of how badly China was affected?
Maybe not. But is it hard to accept that a totalitarian state is the most efficient system to manage crises like this? Nations like Taiwan and South Korea did well too - not totalitarian, but have populations that are able to follow strict instruction and not as fussed with privacy and individual rights.

But you’re right - China tells us what they want us to know and we don’t have visibility of the extent they were effected.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by DragsterDriver »

towny wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:42 am
DragsterDriver wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:46 am
bimboman wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:29 am Then the next question is sloppy accident or deliberately planned.
Is there any truthful account of how badly China was affected?
Maybe not. But is it hard to accept that a totalitarian state is the most efficient system to manage crises like this? Nations like Taiwan and South Korea did well too - not totalitarian, but have populations that are able to follow strict instruction and not as fussed with privacy and individual rights.

But you’re right - China tells us what they want us to know and we don’t have visibility of the extent they were effected.
I recall people dying in the street, magic hospitals built overnight, apartment buildings having their doors welded shut etc. China then blamed athletes from the west for bringing it to
Them.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Muttonbirds »

One thing about China is they will always shut down whistle blowers to protect their image.

We in the West have been happy with this for decades. :thumbup:
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by ID2 »

I just watched the 60 Minutes piece before reading this article. Scientists have been warning for years about a potential pandemic, but I'm the lab camp, probably 70/30 like somebody above. Listening to China's random blame games further solidifies it. It's a pity the WHO can't be trusted and people/orgs tend to tiptoe around China in general. Trump getting involved didn't help either.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Lemoentjie »

Sefton wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:15 am
In all of China, the pandemic broke out on the doorstep of the Wuhan institute.
I’ve seen this faulty logic pushed before. The Wuhan Institute is where it is because it researches corona viruses.
I thought that most coronaviruses originated right in the south of China, with the huge bat caves? Which is over 1000km from Wuhan?

Although Wuhan might be the nearest large city, I have no idea.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by towny »

If there was evidence that this was a lab leak.... will there be hell to pay or will the world turn a blind eye to avoid the inevitable drama from a petulant government?
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Jeff the Bear »

towny wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:38 am
Sefton wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:15 am
In all of China, the pandemic broke out on the doorstep of the Wuhan institute.
I’ve seen this faulty logic pushed before. The Wuhan Institute is where it is because it researches corona viruses.
+1
I'm not entirely sure that disproves anything. Just because it's in a place where Coronavirus may naturally mutate doesn't mean the lab wasn't the source itself.

I can't be arsed to find earlier posts, but I've been in the 'it came from the lab' camp from the beginning. The odds that a global pandemic inducing Coronavirus just happened to naturally accure across the road from one of the only places on earth where scientists are actively f**king about with Coronavirus seem infinitesimally small.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by DragsterDriver »

towny wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:15 am If there was evidence that this was a lab leak.... will there be hell to pay or will the world turn a blind eye to avoid the inevitable drama from a petulant government?
Nobody wants to pick a fight with China.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Bindi »

Article is rubbish. Will expand more if not too hungover tomorrow.

The bloke simply isn’t an expert. He’s a journo with an interest in science. Some off the stuff he covers is exactly in my field and it’s just speculation.

My guess is 80/20 it’s natural. China’s still completely to blame for their handling though.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by mr bungle »

Bindi wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:27 am Article is rubbish. Will expand more if not too hungover tomorrow.

The bloke simply isn’t an expert. He’s a journo with an interest in science. Some off the stuff he covers is exactly in my field and it’s just speculation.

My guess is 80/20 it’s natural. China’s still completely to blame for their handling though.
Very keen to hear. I know this is, as they say, very much in your wheelhouse.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Dozy »

guy smiley wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:03 am After reading this intense and technically rich article, I'm saying it came from a lab... after being highly sceptical of the conspiracy theory nature of the assertion initially. Oh, that and Trump said it so covfefe, right?

Link here
Nicholas Wade is a science writer, editor, and author who has worked on the staff of Nature, Science, and, for many years, the New York Times....
This is a long article, far too long to reproduce here in full so the mouth breathers can quote it repeatedly. It's full of technical explanations and descriptions that are both rewarding and alarming. It's well worth a read and I heartily recommend it.

Snapshot conclusion...
Neither the natural emergence nor the lab escape hypothesis can yet be ruled out. There is still no direct evidence for either. So no definitive conclusion can be reached.

That said, the available evidence leans more strongly in one direction than the other. Readers will form their own opinion. But it seems to me that proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence.

It’s documented that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were doing gain-of-function experiments designed to make coronaviruses infect human cells and humanized mice. This is exactly the kind of experiment from which a SARS2-like virus could have emerged. The researchers were not vaccinated against the viruses under study, and they were working in the minimal safety conditions of a BSL2 laboratory. So escape of a virus would not be at all surprising. In all of China, the pandemic broke out on the doorstep of the Wuhan institute. The virus was already well adapted to humans, as expected for a virus grown in humanized mice. It possessed an unusual enhancement, a furin cleavage site, which is not possessed by any other known SARS-related beta-coronavirus, and this site included a double arginine codon also unknown among beta-coronaviruses. What more evidence could you want, aside from the presently unobtainable lab records documenting SARS2’s creation?

Proponents of natural emergence have a rather harder story to tell. The plausibility of their case rests on a single surmise, the expected parallel between the emergence of SARS2 and that of SARS1 and MERS. But none of the evidence expected in support of such a parallel history has yet emerged. No one has found the bat population that was the source of SARS2, if indeed it ever infected bats. No intermediate host has presented itself, despite an intensive search by Chinese authorities that included the testing of 80,000 animals. There is no evidence of the virus making multiple independent jumps from its intermediate host to people, as both the SARS1 and MERS viruses did. There is no evidence from hospital surveillance records of the epidemic gathering strength in the population as the virus evolved. There is no explanation of why a natural epidemic should break out in Wuhan and nowhere else. There is no good explanation of how the virus acquired its furin cleavage site, which no other SARS-related beta-coronavirus possesses, nor why the site is composed of human-preferred codons. The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities.
Call you QAnon from now on
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Jeff the Bear »

I was expecting more from Dozy tbf.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Dozy »

Bindi wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:27 am Article is rubbish. Will expand more if not too hungover tomorrow.

The bloke simply isn’t an expert. He’s a journo with an interest in science. Some off the stuff he covers is exactly in my field and it’s just speculation.

My guess is 80/20 it’s natural. China’s still completely to blame for their handling though.
China handled a million times better then any large country in the world? How they be blamed without calling out the western response so bad they could be Djibouti in comparison.

Anyone who blames China for not containing a unknown virus 6 days after discovery is an absolute moron.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Sandstorm »

Jeff the Bear wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:24 am I was expecting more from Dozy tbf.
He got his first jab this week. The 5G chip has slowed him down a bit.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Dozy »

If you are going for QAnon level put there theories then throw the the US lab leak in the summer they put down vaping then the army lads who turned up in wuhan for the military games and made the whole boat sick.

Just as nutty.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Dozy »

Sandstorm wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:28 am
Jeff the Bear wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:24 am I was expecting more from Dozy tbf.
He got his first jab this week. The 5G chip has slowed him down a bit.
No jab yet
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Sandstorm »

Dozy wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:30 am
Sandstorm wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:28 am
Jeff the Bear wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:24 am I was expecting more from Dozy tbf.
He got his first jab this week. The 5G chip has slowed him down a bit.
No jab yet
Liar
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Jeff the Bear »

Dozy wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:30 am If you are going for QAnon level put there theories then throw the the US lab leak in the summer they put down vaping then the army lads who turned up in wuhan for the military games and made the whole boat sick.

Just as nutty.
That's more like it.
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by panamax »

Muttonbirds wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:27 am So GS and the science writer want us to believe Chinese scientists were actively creating a new Coronavirus specifically dangerous to humans, rather than just researching Coronavirus' to find out better how they worked.
well, I don't know but the "gain of function" type of reasearches seem to be quite real and well documented, so researching Coronavirus' to find out better how they work and creating a new Coronavirus specifically dangerous to humans are not mutually exclusive?

if it's Bindi's field of competence I would be real keen to hear his rebuttal of the article as I must confess I am completely clueless on the subject
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Re: COVID-19... lab or nature?

Post by Dozy »

Sandstorm wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:34 am
Dozy wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:30 am
Sandstorm wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:28 am
Jeff the Bear wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:24 am I was expecting more from Dozy tbf.
He got his first jab this week. The 5G chip has slowed him down a bit.
No jab yet
Liar
I'll post the card when I get it

Hoping for a inactivated
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