Brumbie_Steve wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 am
towny wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:43 am
ovalball wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:07 am
Brumbie_Steve wrote: ↑Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:55 am
I wonder if the West decided to play the long game and exclude china from the WTO and International exchange. Coupled with trade sanctions it worked against the Soviets. Cut off their access to the International internet and be more vigilant with their theft of technology and life will become difficult.
I suspect cheap electronics will have a higher priority, in the West, than objections to their Civil Rights policies.
It was easy with the USSR - they were a petro-state. The west squeezed them in the 80’s when there was an oil glut and they were spending money they didn’t have in Afghanistan.
China is a key part of every company’s value chain, and their market size means they are the biggest market for many.
I suspect that removing them from your value chain may be easier than it appears at first glance. It is the market aspect that makes it more difficult. The chinese domestic market is the bit you can't replace but if you restrict its growth by removing them from your value chain. Stopping their access to western technology will also help their homegrown products would be a generation or two behind.
I don’t think it would easy to remove China from a value chain. And I don’t think you can restrict their access from much western technology without scoring own goals in the short and long term.
Short term - they are the second biggest market in the world so that’s a big sacrifice for those companies that couldn’t sell there.
Long term - China would be pressed to invest in home grown capability. There is nothing that exists in the world that can’t be ‘invented’ again, even if it is painful. They’re not Iran - if they need something that can throw massive resources to make it happen. But if they don’t need it (i.e. they can buy it from elsewhere) then they will. Most Chinese companies couldn’t give a f*ck about the nation’s strategy - they buy Taiwanese components because they’re the best/cheapest, but now that they’re cut off from this supply, necessity will create demand for a Chinese company to work it out. Taiwan and the US really don’t want this, which is why they will likely (imo) turn the supply back on once there’s been enough time to cause some pain (e.g. kill Huawei) but not enough to let China to build their own capability.
I read a great article on this a while ago. I’ll dig it up.
Long story short, it’s not that easy to mess with China. We all ‘need’ them. The good news is, they need us more so we shouldn’t see the tension become bullets.