Chinese Tyranny

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towny
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

shanky wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:23 pm Ethan’s lovely

Apart from carrying on with the skanky nanny while Uma Thurman was home massaging her 11/10 breasts

Apart from that. :(
I'm going to give him a pass. I never got the Uma Thurman thing. Don't get me wrong, she's an attractive woman and very talented, but.... nah. And she's a boogle head.

Ethan is a rich movie star and there's some nanny hanging around the house and she's not busting his chops..... if given the opportunity, once in a while even a fat wolf is going to going to glance over at a sheep and think, "I should go over there and f*ck that."
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shanky
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by shanky »

:lol: :lol:

Jesus
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AlanBengio
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by AlanBengio »

CrazyIslander wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:50 am
DragsterDriver wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:10 am There isn’t a superpower to challenge China, they can do as they choose. Only western consumers can vote with their wallets, and I can’t see it.
It will be like this for centuries to come tbh. Just like the Roman empire, Ottomans etc lasted for centuries, so will China. Their biggest enemy will be from within, probably from progressives left maybe in a generation or three.
[bit off topic]
Actually there was (not in the exact order): the Roman empire, the Faraons in Egypt, the Maya, the Francs. And China.
And now there is US, France, Italy, UK. And still China - ie the very same Chinese state entity which was present when the Romans were here, is still present nowadays.
China is the longest continuous State entity still alive in the world
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CrazyIslander
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by CrazyIslander »

AlanBengio wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:57 am
CrazyIslander wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:50 am
DragsterDriver wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:10 am There isn’t a superpower to challenge China, they can do as they choose. Only western consumers can vote with their wallets, and I can’t see it.
It will be like this for centuries to come tbh. Just like the Roman empire, Ottomans etc lasted for centuries, so will China. Their biggest enemy will be from within, probably from progressives left maybe in a generation or three.
[bit off topic]
Actually there was (not in the exact order): the Roman empire, the Faraons in Egypt, the Maya, the Francs. And China.
And now there is US, France, Italy, UK. And still China - ie the very same Chinese state entity which was present when the Romans were here, is still present nowadays.
China is the longest continuous State entity still alive in the world
That's a very westernised version of it. China's political landscape was just as dynamic. Westerners just lump it all as China.
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AlanBengio
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by AlanBengio »

CrazyIslander wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:18 am
AlanBengio wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:57 am
CrazyIslander wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:50 am
DragsterDriver wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:10 am There isn’t a superpower to challenge China, they can do as they choose. Only western consumers can vote with their wallets, and I can’t see it.
It will be like this for centuries to come tbh. Just like the Roman empire, Ottomans etc lasted for centuries, so will China. Their biggest enemy will be from within, probably from progressives left maybe in a generation or three.
[bit off topic]
Actually there was (not in the exact order): the Roman empire, the Faraons in Egypt, the Maya, the Francs. And China.
And now there is US, France, Italy, UK. And still China - ie the very same Chinese state entity which was present when the Romans were here, is still present nowadays.
China is the longest continuous State entity still alive in the world
That's a very westernised version of it. China's political landscape was just as dynamic. Westerners just lump it all as China.
Not at all - if you think and read about it you will acknowledge that China as same state entity exists (I am going very quick also because I am not an expert) since 200 BC at least, when the first emperor arose. Yes there have been changes also dramatic ones but there is a continuity of the State since then (ie the struggle of the same state entity through history).
China was back then (when here was Rome) and China is still there (with a chain of documents from those times till today) whereas Rome is not here anymore
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CrazyIslander
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by CrazyIslander »

AlanBengio wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:28 am
CrazyIslander wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:18 am
AlanBengio wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:57 am
CrazyIslander wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:50 am
DragsterDriver wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:10 am There isn’t a superpower to challenge China, they can do as they choose. Only western consumers can vote with their wallets, and I can’t see it.
It will be like this for centuries to come tbh. Just like the Roman empire, Ottomans etc lasted for centuries, so will China. Their biggest enemy will be from within, probably from progressives left maybe in a generation or three.
[bit off topic]
Actually there was (not in the exact order): the Roman empire, the Faraons in Egypt, the Maya, the Francs. And China.
And now there is US, France, Italy, UK. And still China - ie the very same Chinese state entity which was present when the Romans were here, is still present nowadays.
China is the longest continuous State entity still alive in the world
That's a very westernised version of it. China's political landscape was just as dynamic. Westerners just lump it all as China.
Not at all - if you think and read about it you will acknowledge that China as same state entity exists (I am going very quick also because I am not an expert) since 200 BC at least, when the first emperor arose. Yes there have been changes also dramatic ones but there is a continuity of the State since then (ie the struggle of the same state entity through history).
China was back then (when here was Rome) and China is still there (with a chain of documents from those times till today) whereas Rome is not here anymore
No, there were various kingdoms and the middle kingdom changed borders and leaders all the time. The Mongols took over for a time.
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Dozy »

Some amount of shite being spouted in this thread - fair play
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Farva
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Farva »

Dozy wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:05 pm Some amount of shite being spouted in this thread - fair play
Absolutely.
I’ve collated them here: search.php?author_id=648795&sr=posts
towny
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

Dozy wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:05 pm Some amount of shite being spouted in this thread - fair play
:lol:

I agree
towny
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

China is going to dominate the world because…….. their GDP is going to be 18

It’s just nonsense. Geography, demographics and history has dealt them a hand that makes it virtually impossible to call the shots to the ‘west’.
backrow
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by backrow »

CHinese Tyranny ? Is that like Chinese Ironry or Copperry ?
Dozy
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Dozy »

towny wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 5:06 pm China is going to dominate the world because…….. their GDP is going to be 18

It’s just nonsense. Geography, demographics and history has dealt them a hand that makes it virtually impossible to call the shots to the ‘west’.
Why does it have to be about calling shots. That comment sums up your mindset. If it was in any doubt before it isn't now. You are a racist shit
towny
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

Dozy wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 5:27 pm
towny wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 5:06 pm China is going to dominate the world because…….. their GDP is going to be 18

It’s just nonsense. Geography, demographics and history has dealt them a hand that makes it virtually impossible to call the shots to the ‘west’.
Why does it have to be about calling shots. That comment sums up your mindset. If it was in any doubt before it isn't now. You are a racist shit
I don’t think I’m racist at all. I was responding to others that claimed that there was no superpower to Challenge China when there are two USA and Europe, with the former not looking at relinquishing its top on spot any time soon.

China and the USA are in a symbiotic relationship, so what’s good for one is generally good for the other. I see this as a good thing as it provides a good shot at stability for the rest of us.
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guy smiley
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by guy smiley »

Farva wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:12 pm
Dozy wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:05 pm Some amount of shite being spouted in this thread - fair play
Absolutely.
I’ve collated them here: search.php?author_id=648795&sr=posts
:lol: :lol:
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Zakar
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Zakar »

Farva wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:12 pm
Dozy wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:05 pm Some amount of shite being spouted in this thread - fair play
Absolutely.
I’ve collated them here: search.php?author_id=648795&sr=posts
Jesus, that's like walking into the committeds padded cell and seeing a manifesto scrawled on the walls in blood and/or faeces.
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MungoMan
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by MungoMan »

Zakar wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:24 pm
Farva wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:12 pm
Dozy wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:05 pm Some amount of shite being spouted in this thread - fair play
Absolutely.
I’ve collated them here: search.php?author_id=648795&sr=posts
Jesus, that's like walking into the committeds padded cell and seeing a manifesto scrawled on the walls in blood and/or faeces.
Yep. Doh Xi is staging a full-dress dirty protest
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Brumbie_Steve
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Brumbie_Steve »

I wonder if the West decided to play the long game and exclude china from the WTO and International exchange. Coupled with trade sanctions it worked against the Soviets. Cut off their access to the International internet and be more vigilant with their theft of technology and life will become difficult.
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by ovalball »

Brumbie_Steve wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:55 am I wonder if the West decided to play the long game and exclude china from the WTO and International exchange. Coupled with trade sanctions it worked against the Soviets. Cut off their access to the International internet and be more vigilant with their theft of technology and life will become difficult.
I suspect cheap electronics will have a higher priority, in the West, than objections to their Civil Rights policies.
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

ovalball wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:07 am
Brumbie_Steve wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:55 am I wonder if the West decided to play the long game and exclude china from the WTO and International exchange. Coupled with trade sanctions it worked against the Soviets. Cut off their access to the International internet and be more vigilant with their theft of technology and life will become difficult.
I suspect cheap electronics will have a higher priority, in the West, than objections to their Civil Rights policies.
Yeah.
It was easy with the USSR - they were a petro-state. The west squeezed them in the 80’s when there was an oil glut and they were spending money they didn’t have in Afghanistan.
China is a key part of every company’s value chain, and their market size means they are the biggest market for many.
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Sefton
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Sefton »

Farva wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:12 pm
Dozy wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:05 pm Some amount of shite being spouted in this thread - fair play
Absolutely.
I’ve collated them here: search.php?author_id=648795&sr=posts
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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kiap
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by kiap »

ovalball wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:07 am
Brumbie_Steve wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:55 am I wonder if the West decided to play the long game and exclude china from the WTO and International exchange. Coupled with trade sanctions it worked against the Soviets. Cut off their access to the International internet and be more vigilant with their theft of technology and life will become difficult.
I suspect cheap electronics will have a higher priority, in the West, than objections to their Civil Rights policies.
Possibly, but there are other existing and burgeoning sources of electronic manufactures. Some also cheaper.
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

kiap wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:18 am
ovalball wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:07 am
Brumbie_Steve wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:55 am I wonder if the West decided to play the long game and exclude china from the WTO and International exchange. Coupled with trade sanctions it worked against the Soviets. Cut off their access to the International internet and be more vigilant with their theft of technology and life will become difficult.
I suspect cheap electronics will have a higher priority, in the West, than objections to their Civil Rights policies.
Possibly, but there are other existing and burgeoning sources of electronic manufactures. Some also cheaper.
Such as?
Apple alone has literally of millions of Chinese workers in their supply chain. Cheap isn’t as important as capable - nowhere in the world does this kind of capability exist.

Cheap is easy, but cost effective, reliable capability is hard and China is miles ahead of anyone else.

Also, the Chinese market is the destination for many companies, so any damage inflicted on China will hurt the west just as badly.
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Brumbie_Steve
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Brumbie_Steve »

towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:43 am
ovalball wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:07 am
Brumbie_Steve wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:55 am I wonder if the West decided to play the long game and exclude china from the WTO and International exchange. Coupled with trade sanctions it worked against the Soviets. Cut off their access to the International internet and be more vigilant with their theft of technology and life will become difficult.
I suspect cheap electronics will have a higher priority, in the West, than objections to their Civil Rights policies.
Yeah.
It was easy with the USSR - they were a petro-state. The west squeezed them in the 80’s when there was an oil glut and they were spending money they didn’t have in Afghanistan.
China is a key part of every company’s value chain, and their market size means they are the biggest market for many.

I suspect that removing them from your value chain may be easier than it appears at first glance. It is the market aspect that makes it more difficult. The chinese domestic market is the bit you can't replace but if you restrict its growth by removing them from your value chain. Stopping their access to western technology will also help their homegrown products would be a generation or two behind.
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Ted.
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Ted. »

Dozy wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:29 am
MungoMan wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:27 am
Dozy wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:11 am
Farva wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:00 am Does anyone know what Dozy is on about?
I'm calling you a bed wetter
Oooh, sick burn!

Here is some advice offered gratis. in case you haven’t noticed, you are a figure of fun. This is the only reason the banhammer remains suspended mid-air.

When you cease to provide low-level shits&giggles, it’s goodnight nurse for Doh Xi.
You wouldn't have made the effort of typing that if you weren't a little hurt.

I left the board for years and can do so again at a flick of a switch.

You are a figure of fun, but it's very real in your case.
Mungoman is a truly gracious and magnanimous person who will give any fool a chance once or twice if he's feeling in the mood. The proof of that is his very kind and accurate advice to you.
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

Brumbie_Steve wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:49 am
towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:43 am
ovalball wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:07 am
Brumbie_Steve wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:55 am I wonder if the West decided to play the long game and exclude china from the WTO and International exchange. Coupled with trade sanctions it worked against the Soviets. Cut off their access to the International internet and be more vigilant with their theft of technology and life will become difficult.
I suspect cheap electronics will have a higher priority, in the West, than objections to their Civil Rights policies.
Yeah.
It was easy with the USSR - they were a petro-state. The west squeezed them in the 80’s when there was an oil glut and they were spending money they didn’t have in Afghanistan.
China is a key part of every company’s value chain, and their market size means they are the biggest market for many.

I suspect that removing them from your value chain may be easier than it appears at first glance. It is the market aspect that makes it more difficult. The chinese domestic market is the bit you can't replace but if you restrict its growth by removing them from your value chain. Stopping their access to western technology will also help their homegrown products would be a generation or two behind.
I don’t think it would easy to remove China from a value chain. And I don’t think you can restrict their access from much western technology without scoring own goals in the short and long term.

Short term - they are the second biggest market in the world so that’s a big sacrifice for those companies that couldn’t sell there.
Long term - China would be pressed to invest in home grown capability. There is nothing that exists in the world that can’t be ‘invented’ again, even if it is painful. They’re not Iran - if they need something that can throw massive resources to make it happen. But if they don’t need it (i.e. they can buy it from elsewhere) then they will. Most Chinese companies couldn’t give a f*ck about the nation’s strategy - they buy Taiwanese components because they’re the best/cheapest, but now that they’re cut off from this supply, necessity will create demand for a Chinese company to work it out. Taiwan and the US really don’t want this, which is why they will likely (imo) turn the supply back on once there’s been enough time to cause some pain (e.g. kill Huawei) but not enough to let China to build their own capability.

I read a great article on this a while ago. I’ll dig it up.


Long story short, it’s not that easy to mess with China. We all ‘need’ them. The good news is, they need us more so we shouldn’t see the tension become bullets.
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shanky
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by shanky »

China’s singular problem is not the West
It’s the internal unrest that might come from removing the sugar hit of constant growth

Anything less than 10% GDP growth is a equivalent to a recession in the West

They’ve had less than 10% for about 7 years or so, perhaps eerily coincident with the rise of the Xi hard man routine, the clampdowns, the posturing, the symbolic national BnR program

They may well own a stack of US debt, but who are they going to sell it to?

The US ain’t dead yet. and China’s not wearing the trousers just yet either.
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

It's behind a paywall but the analyst is Dan Wang and this bit is pretty relevant imo:

So many of these Chinese leading companies are facing the prospect or the actual effects of US sanctions, and what the US sanctions have done is really aligned the interests of Chinese companies along with that of the Chinese state, to pursue self-sufficiency as well as technological greatness. So I’m now hearing from a bunch of smaller Chinese companies who could never get the time of day from a major company like Huawei, now they are getting and becoming qualified vendors because Huawei simply cannot buy from American technologies.

In my view, this is putting Huawei in the position that NASA was in the 1960s. When NASA and the US Air Force were the major buyers of semiconductors they more or less created the integrated circuit market. When NASA said, “Well, we will buy integrated circuits on the basis of performance not on cost. We need chips that can send three men to the moon and bring them safely back, we’ll pay whatever price for it.” Now Huawei today is a cash-rich organization, highly sophisticated technology company that is trying to bring up the capabilities of the Chinese ecosystem, not because it is trying to follow any government directives, but to save its own butt and maintain operations.
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:04 pm China’s singular problem is not the West
It’s the internal unrest that might come from removing the sugar hit of constant growth

Anything less than 10% GDP growth is a equivalent to a recession in the West

They’ve had less than 10% for about 7 years or so, perhaps eerily coincident with the rise of the Xi hard man routine, the clampdowns, the posturing, the symbolic national BnR program

They may well own a stack of US debt, but who are they going to sell it to?

The US ain’t dead yet. and China’s not wearing the trousers just yet either.
There'd be people lining up around the block to buy it.
From what I understand, China owns about $1t US debt, which is less than 4% of all US govt debt and about 15% of what the debt increased by under Trump.
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shanky
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by shanky »

towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:10 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:04 pm China’s singular problem is not the West
It’s the internal unrest that might come from removing the sugar hit of constant growth

Anything less than 10% GDP growth is a equivalent to a recession in the West

They’ve had less than 10% for about 7 years or so, perhaps eerily coincident with the rise of the Xi hard man routine, the clampdowns, the posturing, the symbolic national BnR program

They may well own a stack of US debt, but who are they going to sell it to?

The US ain’t dead yet. and China’s not wearing the trousers just yet either.
There'd be people lining up around the block to buy it.
From what I understand, China owns about $1t US debt, which is less than 4% of all US govt debt and about 15% of what the debt increased by under Trump.
Far be it from me to make assertions about markets, but you go an drop a trillion into the system, and see what it does to not only the price, but the market itself

China is better off threatening to sell it, than actually selling it

(Not least because China is a currency manipulator) IMO
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:15 pm
towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:10 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:04 pm China’s singular problem is not the West
It’s the internal unrest that might come from removing the sugar hit of constant growth

Anything less than 10% GDP growth is a equivalent to a recession in the West

They’ve had less than 10% for about 7 years or so, perhaps eerily coincident with the rise of the Xi hard man routine, the clampdowns, the posturing, the symbolic national BnR program

They may well own a stack of US debt, but who are they going to sell it to?

The US ain’t dead yet. and China’s not wearing the trousers just yet either.
There'd be people lining up around the block to buy it.
From what I understand, China owns about $1t US debt, which is less than 4% of all US govt debt and about 15% of what the debt increased by under Trump.
Far be it from me to make assertions about markets, but you go an drop a trillion into the system, and see what it does to not only the price, but the market itself

China is better off threatening to sell it, than actually selling it

(Not least because China is a currency manipulator) IMO
Yeah….

My point was that the the US was dropping twice that amount each year and demand actually increased.

But that will change - if you drop a trill into a market with less demand you’ll probably cause some problems, so you were more correct than me. And the ability to make the threat is the thing!

But even if they could, what would happen if China did fudge the US economy? Who’s going to buy all the shit China makes? It’s the same as 99% of their threats - they’d be holding a gun to their heads and threatening to blow their own brains out if you didn’t obey.

That’s why they’re a paper tiger.
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Ellafan
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Ellafan »

shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:15 pm
towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:10 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:04 pm China’s singular problem is not the West
It’s the internal unrest that might come from removing the sugar hit of constant growth

Anything less than 10% GDP growth is a equivalent to a recession in the West

They’ve had less than 10% for about 7 years or so, perhaps eerily coincident with the rise of the Xi hard man routine, the clampdowns, the posturing, the symbolic national BnR program

They may well own a stack of US debt, but who are they going to sell it to?

The US ain’t dead yet. and China’s not wearing the trousers just yet either.
There'd be people lining up around the block to buy it.
From what I understand, China owns about $1t US debt, which is less than 4% of all US govt debt and about 15% of what the debt increased by under Trump.
Far be it from me to make assertions about markets, but you go an drop a trillion into the system, and see what it does to not only the price, but the market itself

China is better off threatening to sell it, than actually selling it

(Not least because China is a currency manipulator) IMO
Ask Groucho about whether central banks, in the digital age of instant information, can actually use "printing money" as a lever to push inflation up to their desired +/- 2%, while allowing the govmint of the day to pump-prime an economy (at least by cancelling national debt controlled by the central bank).

I imagine he might say that the PRC doing it would overheat the economy there and crash it. But not so much in the low inflation west. Anyway, perhaps he'll chime in and correct that hypothesis.
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shanky
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by shanky »

towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:06 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:15 pm
towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:10 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:04 pm China’s singular problem is not the West
It’s the internal unrest that might come from removing the sugar hit of constant growth

Anything less than 10% GDP growth is a equivalent to a recession in the West

They’ve had less than 10% for about 7 years or so, perhaps eerily coincident with the rise of the Xi hard man routine, the clampdowns, the posturing, the symbolic national BnR program

They may well own a stack of US debt, but who are they going to sell it to?

The US ain’t dead yet. and China’s not wearing the trousers just yet either.
There'd be people lining up around the block to buy it.
From what I understand, China owns about $1t US debt, which is less than 4% of all US govt debt and about 15% of what the debt increased by under Trump.
Far be it from me to make assertions about markets, but you go an drop a trillion into the system, and see what it does to not only the price, but the market itself

China is better off threatening to sell it, than actually selling it

(Not least because China is a currency manipulator) IMO
Yeah….

My point was that the the US was dropping twice that amount each year and demand actually increased.

But that will change - if you drop a trill into a market with less demand you’ll probably cause some problems, so you were more correct than me. And the ability to make the threat is the thing!

But even if they could, what would happen if China did fudge the US economy? Who’s going to buy all the shit China makes? It’s the same as 99% of their threats - they’d be holding a gun to their heads and threatening to blow their own brains out if you didn’t obey.

That’s why they’re a paper tiger.
:thumbup: agreed

It’ll never happen, because they fvck themselves in 14 different ways and the US just sails on, in the good ship the USS Reserve Currency. Leaky but unsinkable
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shanky
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by shanky »

Ellafan wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:54 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:15 pm
towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:10 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:04 pm China’s singular problem is not the West
It’s the internal unrest that might come from removing the sugar hit of constant growth

Anything less than 10% GDP growth is a equivalent to a recession in the West

They’ve had less than 10% for about 7 years or so, perhaps eerily coincident with the rise of the Xi hard man routine, the clampdowns, the posturing, the symbolic national BnR program

They may well own a stack of US debt, but who are they going to sell it to?

The US ain’t dead yet. and China’s not wearing the trousers just yet either.
There'd be people lining up around the block to buy it.
From what I understand, China owns about $1t US debt, which is less than 4% of all US govt debt and about 15% of what the debt increased by under Trump.
Far be it from me to make assertions about markets, but you go an drop a trillion into the system, and see what it does to not only the price, but the market itself

China is better off threatening to sell it, than actually selling it

(Not least because China is a currency manipulator) IMO
Ask Groucho about whether central banks, in the digital age of instant information, can actually use "printing money" as a lever to push inflation up to their desired +/- 2%, while allowing the govmint of the day to pump-prime an economy (at least by cancelling national debt controlled by the central bank).

I imagine he might say that the PRC doing it would overheat the economy there and crash it. But not so much in the low inflation west. Anyway, perhaps he'll chime in and correct that hypothesis.
Perhaps he’ll come on and put us all right! :)

The Chinese economy is centrally controlled which means they can do things others can’t. But even they can’t work miracles
Dozy
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Dozy »

Ellafan wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:54 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:15 pm
towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:10 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:04 pm China’s singular problem is not the West
It’s the internal unrest that might come from removing the sugar hit of constant growth

Anything less than 10% GDP growth is a equivalent to a recession in the West

They’ve had less than 10% for about 7 years or so, perhaps eerily coincident with the rise of the Xi hard man routine, the clampdowns, the posturing, the symbolic national BnR program

They may well own a stack of US debt, but who are they going to sell it to?

The US ain’t dead yet. and China’s not wearing the trousers just yet either.
There'd be people lining up around the block to buy it.
From what I understand, China owns about $1t US debt, which is less than 4% of all US govt debt and about 15% of what the debt increased by under Trump.
Far be it from me to make assertions about markets, but you go an drop a trillion into the system, and see what it does to not only the price, but the market itself

China is better off threatening to sell it, than actually selling it

(Not least because China is a currency manipulator) IMO
Ask Groucho about whether central banks, in the digital age of instant information, can actually use "printing money" as a lever to push inflation up to their desired +/- 2%, while allowing the govmint of the day to pump-prime an economy (at least by cancelling national debt controlled by the central bank).

I imagine he might say that the PRC doing it would overheat the economy there and crash it. But not so much in the low inflation west. Anyway, perhaps he'll chime in and correct that hypothesis.
This must be on of the board geniuses that Land of Turk was talking about 🤣
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shanky
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by shanky »

Poor old Dozy

Reflexively attacking anything that looks like criticism, even when it’s a matter of fact

What’s next? Chinese rockets aren’t subject to Newton’s Laws?
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Ellafan
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by Ellafan »

Anyone who has passed economics 101 may have a vague recollection that persistent inflation rate rises of 0.4% or 0.5% per month are considered... troublesome. I'll defer to the views of a practising professional economist as to whether this is a product of Beijing distorting pricing within the domestic economy by using commodity/country specific bans as a diplomatic weapon, or 'printing' Rmb to pump the economy, or something else.

Has someone got a graph of coal prices, as offloaded at Shanghai or Tsingtao, over the last 12 months?
China Inflation Rate Above Estimates
The consumer price index in China rose by 0.4% yoy in March 2021, after a 0.2% drop a month earlier and compared with market consensus of a 0.3% gain.

China Inflation Rate Rises to 7-Month High
China's annual inflation rate jumped to 0.9% in April 2021 from 0.4% a month earlier and compared with market consensus of 1%. This was the highest reading since September 2020

China Inflation Rate Rises to 8-Month High
China's annual inflation rate jumped to 1.3% in May 2021 from 0.9% a month earlier and compared with market consensus of 1.6%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/inflation-cpi
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eldanielfire
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by eldanielfire »

Dozy wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 8:26 pm
eldanielfire wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:41 pm
Dozy wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:19 pm
So you acknowledge that the UK is either close too or acheived herd immunity by your understanding and should now rightly STFU about the jabs and open up

It has to be said, among all the anti-Vaxx/Anti-COVOD Vaxx BS around, Dozy's particular take with "Brit Vaccine =bad, China's shithouse vaccines=good" Vaccine is unique in the categories of batshit crazy takes from what I've seen.
The only person who views vaccines on a national basis is you..please don't project your gammon BS views on anyone else.

One is an inactivated vaccine and the other as mRNA/Viral vector types with horrific tales of death, destruction and failure with them.

The only batshit loon is you and your views on this.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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eldanielfire
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by eldanielfire »

Dozy wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:11 am
Farva wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:00 am Does anyone know what Dozy is on about?
I'm calling you a bed wetter
fudge me, How will he come back from that burn?
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eldanielfire
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Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by eldanielfire »

Dozy wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:29 am

I left the board for years and can do so again at a flick of a switch.

You are a figure of fun, but it's very real in your case.
Sefton wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:47 am You were banned for years.
:lol: :lol: :lol: Dozy propaganda techniques obviously learned off the CPP.
towny
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Location: Perth

Re: Chinese Tyranny

Post by towny »

shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:15 pm
towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:06 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:15 pm
towny wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:10 pm
shanky wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:04 pm China’s singular problem is not the West
It’s the internal unrest that might come from removing the sugar hit of constant growth

Anything less than 10% GDP growth is a equivalent to a recession in the West

They’ve had less than 10% for about 7 years or so, perhaps eerily coincident with the rise of the Xi hard man routine, the clampdowns, the posturing, the symbolic national BnR program

They may well own a stack of US debt, but who are they going to sell it to?

The US ain’t dead yet. and China’s not wearing the trousers just yet either.
There'd be people lining up around the block to buy it.
From what I understand, China owns about $1t US debt, which is less than 4% of all US govt debt and about 15% of what the debt increased by under Trump.
Far be it from me to make assertions about markets, but you go an drop a trillion into the system, and see what it does to not only the price, but the market itself

China is better off threatening to sell it, than actually selling it

(Not least because China is a currency manipulator) IMO
Yeah….

My point was that the the US was dropping twice that amount each year and demand actually increased.

But that will change - if you drop a trill into a market with less demand you’ll probably cause some problems, so you were more correct than me. And the ability to make the threat is the thing!

But even if they could, what would happen if China did fudge the US economy? Who’s going to buy all the shit China makes? It’s the same as 99% of their threats - they’d be holding a gun to their heads and threatening to blow their own brains out if you didn’t obey.

That’s why they’re a paper tiger.
:thumbup: agreed

It’ll never happen, because they fvck themselves in 14 different ways and the US just sails on, in the good ship the USS Reserve Currency. Leaky but unsinkable
Yep. Love or hate ‘em, anyone who doesn’t want to live in a cave should be hoping that slave ship outlasts us all.
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