Official World War 3 thread

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You can call me Bill
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Official World War 3 thread

Post by You can call me Bill »

Where: TAIWAN
When: 2022-2023 (projected)
Who: Taiwan+Australia v China


OK, the thread title is a little ambitious.

I was just looking at a graphic of Chinese military resources, and trying to work out what proportion of them are infantry.

I've come up with the following (total personnel + equipment numbers taken from an article):

Personnel - 2.7m
Airpower - 3,200 * say 1.5 people per aircraft = c5,000 people
Tanks - 3,500 * say 3 people = c10,000 people
Armoured vehicles - 33,000 * say 3 people = c100,000 people
Rocket projectors - 2,650 * say 2 people = c5,000 people
Aircraft carriers - 2 * say 2,000 people = c4,000 people
Destroyers - 36 * say 500 people = c18,000 people
Submarines - 74 * say 40 people = c3,000 people

TOTAL PEOPLE WITH VEHICLES = c150,000
TOTAL PEOPLE ON FOOT = c2,500,000
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Clogs
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Clogs »

I am predicting China will most likely win this one.
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Derwyn
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Derwyn »

The main belligerents being AUKUS and China?

Bojo, sleepy Joe and the guy down under will be in Beijing by Christmas smoking the finest cigars China has to offer and drinking some fine Baijiu.
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AlanBengio
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by AlanBengio »

My guess?
If China has to go for Taiwan - it should strike right now.
Before everything gets too militarized.
If that happens now, Taiwan may still be seen as some “Chinese internal affair”, with no one willing to commit funds and people into a war to save Taiwan (after all, only a Chinese rebel province as Hong Kong)
The longer they wait however - the more this perception can change as other interests slowly come along
(My 2 cents Saturday night talks)

Edit: please note that, at present, basically no one recognizes Taiwan (whose official name is “republic of China”) as a sovereign State
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Clogs
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Clogs »

Thw wolf warriors are flexing and annexing.
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Clogs
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Clogs »

Also I hope like like fvck it never comes to pass. I have a son that turns 15 tomorrow. I do not want him having to go to war.
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sonic_attack
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by sonic_attack »

Be over pretty quick. An all out blasting of every American base within reach of Chinese mainland would cut any Pacific assault dead in it's tracks. If a city or two in Japan and South Korea had to be expunged to ensure quick capitulation there the Chinese would be better to get that done inside the same day.

Every SE Asian country would fall into line because they know China is the only thing lifting them out of poverty. China ringed by a huge population of allies in Iran, Russia, North Korea.

That's not a world war. It's an American capitulation. The Aussies and Brits aren't even a mention in it. They're completely inconsequential along with all of the rest of the world.

China will take Taiwan and not a single thing is going to be done about it bar some handwringing at some UN assemblies.
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Newby1
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Newby1 »

If I remember correctly taking Taiwan, while not impossible, would be extremely costly for China.

Basically only have the coast had suitable terrain for amphibious landings, and these can only be made at certain times of the year. Add in that a build up of that size would be fairly obvious and Taiwan would have time to prepare.

Crossing that straight would cost a lot of lives and capital. China doesn't have an infinite supply of landing ships either. Now remember that Taiwan is ridiculously mountainous and has military facilities hidden in these mountains which could disrupt any landings.

This isn't to say that China wouldn't win, they clearly have the technology, manpower, and capital to successfully hold Taiwan. However, it will result in a lot of casualties. China hasn't had that in years. How will Chinese families react to their sons and daughters dying in war en mass? Especially with the 1 child policy era.

I think everyone knows this and a lot of the saber rattling is just reminding the other side of the costs should they misstep.
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LandOTurk
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by LandOTurk »

sonic_attack wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:40 am Be over pretty quick. An all out blasting of every American base within reach of Chinese mainland would cut any Pacific assault dead in it's tracks. If a city or two in Japan and South Korea had to be expunged to ensure quick capitulation there the Chinese would be better to get that done inside the same day.

Every SE Asian country would fall into line because they know China is the only thing lifting them out of poverty. China ringed by a huge population of allies in Iran, Russia, North Korea.

That's not a world war. It's an American capitulation. The Aussies and Brits aren't even a mention in it. They're completely inconsequential along with all of the rest of the world.

China will take Taiwan and not a single thing is going to be done about it bar some handwringing at some UN assemblies.
I'd agree with al that except the bit I have bolded. The US would not tolerate it. They would use their subs to hit every Chinese base in retaliation, stopping China in its tracks. I reckon US (and UK) sub traffic in the area is already much higher than a few years ago. All of this to me is posturing with a fair bit of intent, to inhibit such Chinese aggression.
naki111
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by naki111 »

sonic_attack wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:40 am Be over pretty quick. An all out blasting of every American base within reach of Chinese mainland would cut any Pacific assault dead in it's tracks. If a city or two in Japan and South Korea had to be expunged to ensure quick capitulation there the Chinese would be better to get that done inside the same day.

Every SE Asian country would fall into line because they know China is the only thing lifting them out of poverty. China ringed by a huge population of allies in Iran, Russia, North Korea.

That's not a world war. It's an American capitulation. The Aussies and Brits aren't even a mention in it. They're completely inconsequential along with all of the rest of the world.

China will take Taiwan and not a single thing is going to be done about it bar some handwringing at some UN assemblies.
Wrong login Dozy.
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Farva
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Farva »

War wont happen.
China is now too reliant on the western nations, and vice versa, for it to be risked. Plus the weapons that each side own will mean there will be no winners.
Taiwan is an internal thing for the CCP, they can rattle some swords when it suits them but they wont invade. And vice versa, the west can talk a big game but they also know that any war with China will be devastating.
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True Blue
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by True Blue »

sonic_attack wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:40 am Be over pretty quick. An all out blasting of every American base within reach of Chinese mainland would cut any Pacific assault dead in it's tracks. If a city or two in Japan and South Korea had to be expunged to ensure quick capitulation there the Chinese would be better to get that done inside the same day.

Every SE Asian country would fall into line because they know China is the only thing lifting them out of poverty. China ringed by a huge population of allies in Iran, Russia, North Korea.

That's not a world war. It's an American capitulation. The Aussies and Brits aren't even a mention in it. They're completely inconsequential along with all of the rest of the world.

China will take Taiwan and not a single thing is going to be done about it bar some handwringing at some UN assemblies.
I think you vastly overestimate the Chinese military. The US Navy wipes the floor with anyone including the Chinese. You have to remember any war would be over the defense of Taiwan, not an offensive one. So China would need to do the heavy work and quite frankly they're not up to it.

Russia wouldn't get involved and North Korea are a land army so not sure what you expect them to do? Float over to Taiwan?

Plus, and most importantly, the NZ military would be involved and no one fucks with a haka.
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sonic_attack
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by sonic_attack »

Taipei is around 180km away from mainland China. I reckon the yanks are going to have a hard time getting close to Taiwan to defend anything if the Chinese had a mind to keep them away.

New Zealand is likely the most inconsequential nation to not be involved. We know who our daddy is. We like our 65" tele's and secure primary industries keeping everyone employed and we're well aware the only reason we aren't living in tin sheds and scaping oysters off rocks on the shoreline for dinner s because we supply china with fruit, sirloin steak and infant formula.

So while everyone else goes and plays cold war, New Zealand will just keep producing for daddy Xi.
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Clogs
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Clogs »

New Zealand have never lost a war.



Haka.



Just sayin'....
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sonic_attack
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by sonic_attack »

Clogs wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:12 am New Zealand have never lost a war.



Haka.



Just sayin'....
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Adrianmole
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Adrianmole »

sonic_attack wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:24 am
Clogs wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:12 am New Zealand have never lost a war.



Haka.



Just sayin'....
Korea
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If we were in charge bro..would smash them ..chur.
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Clogs
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Clogs »

^ this.
ID2
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by ID2 »

sonic_attack wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:40 am Be over pretty quick. An all out blasting of every American base within reach of Chinese mainland would cut any Pacific assault dead in it's tracks. If a city or two in Japan and South Korea had to be expunged to ensure quick capitulation there the Chinese would be better to get that done inside the same day.

Every SE Asian country would fall into line because they know China is the only thing lifting them out of poverty. China ringed by a huge population of allies in Iran, Russia, North Korea.

That's not a world war. It's an American capitulation. The Aussies and Brits aren't even a mention in it. They're completely inconsequential along with all of the rest of the world.

China will take Taiwan and not a single thing is going to be done about it bar some handwringing at some UN assemblies.
And they'd hardly just stand idly by and let it happen. Taiwan is a potential survival issue for Japan, they're increasing military spending and looking to arm other friendly nations against China. Definitely an interesting few years on the horizon with Xi installing himself as emperor while increasing nationalism and cutting off the population from the outside world
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Ted.
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Ted. »

Well this is a shocking revelation.

listen: How the American War Machine Is All About Money

There's a little bit on AUKUS in there, too.

Synopsis: Given that Afghanistan is all but over, there needs to be another war to keep the wheels of commerce oiled.
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Wilson's Toffee
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Re: Official World War 3 thread

Post by Wilson's Toffee »

Ja - Covid will not last forever..
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